The 2027 Kansas Jayhawks are 1-0 and sit ranked at #17. They will play next on Friday, November 6 against Middle Tennessee. The game will be played at home. The team’s College Basketball Reference page is here.

Player	PPGAB	Per100
Melvin Council	+4.10	+9.66
Leroy Blyden	+7.17	+14.63
Tre White	+10.04	+22.90
Tyran Stokes	-6.11	-13.18
Trey Kaufman-Renn	+1.19	+2.76
Taylen Kinney	-4.19	-9.11
Keanu Dawes	+3.16	+11.16
Christian Reeves	+3.28	+13.38
Dennis Parker	+0.74	+6.79
Trent Perry	+4.19	+36.44
Kohl Rosario
Paul Mbiya	+0.32	+4.46
Davion Adkins	-1.61	-28.57
Luke Barnett	-0.65	-8.92
Will Thengvall	-0.61	-13.39
Atticus Richmond	-0.64	-14.05

Through one game, the top five Jayhawks have been: Tre White, Leroy Blyden, Trent Perry, Melvin Council, and Keanu Dawes. The KU players who struggled the most were Tyran Stokes and Taylen Kinney. In the case of Stokes, we had him giving up 20 points on defense (including a 4-point play by fouling a 3-point shooter), which contributes heavily to his negative score. Some of this was him still learning how to communicate and defend at the D1 level, but there is also a bit of luck involved when someone is only playing over a sample of about 46 possessions.

Season Write-Ups

2027 Player Projections (10/12/2026)

After an interesting off-season, the Kansas Jayhawks will begin exhibition play this Friday, taking on Pitt State in a night that will also function as the team’s “Late Night.” With the rules changes on who a team can play in the preseason, KU will also host Louisville and Duke later this month, meaning that entertaining games (albeit ones that don’t officially count) are nearly here.

The rumors heading into the offseason were that Kansas would see wholesale changes to its roster as players entertained the transfer portal, and these rumors proved to be correct. KU saw five non-graduating seniors transfer out and one head to the NBA. Darryn Peterson would be drafted second overall to the Utah Jazz, but those heading to new schools include: Bryson Tiller (Missouri), Flory Bidunga (Louisville), Elmarko Jackson (Georgetown), Jamari McDowell (Wake Forest), and Samis Calderon (Butler).

Kansas was able to return Kohl Rosario and Paul Mbiya, something that helped rally fans who were worried about seeing no continuity from one year to the next. But even Mbiya looked gone for a brief moment (there was an announcement made on his behalf that he had entered the portal but he never actually did and eventually announced his return).

Along with these two, KU had early commitments from four freshmen (led by Taylen Kinney), so at least a skeleton roster existed at this time. Eventually KU would go to the portal and add a strong compliment of talent, before landing the player the staff was really after and who was rumored to be a Jayhawk all along, top high school recruit Tyran Stokes.

Stokes, the McDonald’s All-American and consensus number one player of the 2026 high school class, made things official on April 29^th. By May 7^th, KU had added its final important piece (or so we thought), in Radford transfer Dennis Parker. The roster at this time looked talented but a bit unproven. Questions were along the lines of: How would the incoming transfers do, particularly those who played at a lower level the year before? Would the true freshmen (aside from Stokes) be able to contribute? How would the progression of Mbiya/Rosario look?

But these days in collegiate athletics are anything but normal, and by the end of the summer there were rumors about Tre White and Melvin Council (independently) looking to sue the NCAA for another season of eligibility. White, who had gone undrafted in the NBA but played in the Summer League, was seeking a fifth season due to the NCAA’s own newly-drafted “five in five” rule that was to allow players moving forward to get five seasons of eligibility in five years of college…a precedence that was somewhat established with the 2021 Covid season.

Council’s lawsuit went a different direction, seeking for a fourth-NCAA season given his own unique circumstances…he argued he had been forced into playing basketball at the NJCAA level because of being falsely accused of a crime, and that he was seeking remedy from this harm and that by being declared ineligible the NCAA was in effect punishing him.

Recently each player had his lawsuit receive initial procedural victories, which had the effect of declaring each player currently eligible as the cases work themselves through the courtrooms. Now this status could change if appeals courts rule against the plaintiffs, but shortly after these cases were seen as favorable for White and Council, each player announced his intent to return to Lawrence for one final “victory lap” season.

So not only are both players eligible, they are both on KU’s official roster and have their old numbers back. So while about six months ago it looked possible that KU might not return any scholarship players from a season ago, the Jayhawks are bringing back four scholarship players with two of these being full-time starters from the 2026 season.

This year’s projection will be a bit different from prior seasons, because there are four possible scenarios as to how the roster might wind up down the stretch of the season heading into postseason play.

Scenario A is the most optimistic outlook, in that both Melvin Council and Tre White are deemed eligible and are able to play most or all of the season (and this is what we know by mid to late-February).

Scenario B sees Melvin Council as eligible but Tre White (who is part of a class of other players) as ineligible.

Scenario C is when White remains eligible but Council’s case gets overturned and he is no longer able to play.

Scenario D is when both are found independently ineligible, effectively returning the roster to how we all thought it was going to be during the summer months.

Given the importance of both players to Kansas a season ago, as well as how much roster turnover there was, each of these scenarios makes the Jayhawks look quite different. So when it comes to projecting how well the team is going to do, we will explore each of these options.

Without further ado, here is each player’s projected value marks, ordered by estimated playing time assuming the best case scenario and the full eligibility of Council and White.

Melvin Council (Gr.) PG: 81.7% minutes, +6.25 Per100, +3.57 PPGAB

The return of Melvin Council has produced far more controversy than one would expect particularly given Mel’s energy and the fan enthusiasm a year ago. Council grades out very well from a value perspective, as his defense and ballhandling were both extremely solid marks and able to overshadow his per shooting efficiency marks.

Council’s age and status as a returning player are also in his favor…we are more confidently able to project players that are in their collegiate primes and have already played under Bill Self than the alternatives. With KU likely having a deeper team than it did a season ago, the hope is that Kansas will be able to rest Melvin more and that his shot selection can be more judicious. He shouldn’t need to be the one to force difficult late-clock shots up.

Tyran Stokes (Fr.) F: 78.4% of minutes, +6.94 Per100, +3.81 PPGAB

As a true freshman, Stokes is slotted at value numbers that fit his class rating coming in and comparing him to other freshmen who were at that level. Make no mistake, Stokes is going to be a high-value player. How good he actually is will be determined during the year, but Kansas fans should be excited about his prospects. Even Stokes’ true position is a mystery, with us merely listing him as a “forward” as we aren’t sure if he is going to play more of the 3 or the 4.

What should make Stokes a more interesting prospect than the talented Darryn Peterson from a season ago is Stokes’ versatility. Stokes is a better passer and rebounder, whereas Peterson was a true shot-first type of player (and still is).

Tre White (Gr.) SF: 72.4% of minutes, +4.26 Per100, +2.16 PPGAB

White got much more love than the news of Council returning, and while White’s return makes KU better and deeper, KU is going to need less from White than they are Council. There are more wings and more options around the 2/3/4 spots than there are at point, particularly if the new PG-types aren’t ready to play at the Kansas-level.

White’s numbers reflect who he is, a solid shooter and rebounder and decent defender. He doesn’t pass well and can sometimes disappear from the game if not engaged in the offense. With Stokes and others, we are expecting Tre White to have a good season. But from what we’ve seen, we still think Melvin is more valuable to this year’s roster.

Keanu Dawes (Sr.) PF: 68.0% of minutes, +3.94 Per100, +1.88 PPGAB

Our median expectation for Keanu Dawes, the first transfer to make this list, is a blend of what KU transfers have historically done (underachieved according to estimate in their first seasons at KU) as well as our optimism toward him given his play last year on a Big 12 team (solid player at Utah). First, the possible bad. Dawes will need to adjust to a new coach and system and play at a more competitive level in terms of expectation. Can he compete at a high level for a program like KU?

We believe so. He is experienced and a veteran, and has already played at Allen Fieldhouse (outplaying Bryson Tiller a season ago) and against Big 12 opponents. He has the ball skills to be both a finisher and complimentary piece around the other talented players KU has assembled. Dawes’s size and versatility will allow KU to play him at either the 4 or the 5, and we have him as the fourth all-but-guaranteed starter spot.

Leroy Blyden (So.) PG: 40.1% of minutes, +0.54 Per100, +0.15 PPGAB

Blyden begins the list of other players who we have anywhere from fifth to tenth on total minutes played/importance to the team. Blyden had a great season for Toledo, shooting 40% from 3 and being a great scorer and solid distributor in his freshman season. But how will he handle playing at a higher level, likely getting fewer minutes, and asked to have a more specific role? Some players thrive doing this, while others struggle to adapt.

What we know is that Kansas will need ballhandling and that they don’t have a ton of it. Especially if Melvin Council is ruled out at anytime during the year, expect Blyden to have opportunities to be in at a lead guard role.

Dennis Parker (Sr.) SF: 35.4% of minutes, +1.97 Per100, +0.49 PPGAB

Parker is a wing who has recently been receiving less anticipation among Kansas fans after the news of White returning. Parker was a solid shooter and scorer at Radford, but how much he can do at a higher level is still to be determined.

A couple things in his favor include his age (senior) and his experience at the higher level of college hoops (he began his career at N.C. State). Parker could very well be the type of player who shows steady development each year, and KU gets him at his college best. Either way, his metrics from a season ago were better than either of Nick Timberlake’s or Jayden Dawson’s.

Kohl Rosario (So.) SF: 33.4% of minutes, +1.35 Per100, +0.31 PPGAB

Rosario’s potential was seen last year when he helped spur KU’s comeback against St. John’s in the Round of 32, and he has elite athleticism/hustle which makes his prospects all the more exciting. We see year two going better for Kohl, though with this roster it remains to be seen how many minutes he actually gets.

But he should be above-bubble, given how close he was to bubble-level as a freshman. His status as a wing might require him to shoot the ball better, but even if he is a subpar shooter he can get minutes by doing little things and adding value through coverage defense and hustle plays such as offensive rebounds or steals/forced turnovers.

Taylen Kinney (Fr.) PG: 30.4% of minutes, +1.07 Per100, +0.23 PPGAB

KU’s other McDonald’s All-American is another intriguing player, someone who you could see play a major role for the Jayhawks this year or maybe need to sit as an inexperienced true freshman. With Council on the roster and eligible, KU’s need for a floor general diminishes. Kinney is five and one-half years younger than Mel. This matters, and is one reason we see Kinney’s minutes diminishing as the season goes. But of course this could change given the uncertainty of Council’s eligibility.

Kinney is at a place in the recruiting rankings that could go either way. KU has had some really solid players around the mid-teens, and some not-so-great freshmen as well. If he isn’t asked to do too much, Kinney should be a great complimentary piece given his ball skills and knack for the game.

Paul Mbiya (So.) C: 24.7% of minutes, -0.43 Per100, -0.07 PPGAB

Mbiya is looking a lot sharper in practice videos than he did a year ago, much smoother and better skilled. His size and potential are still there, and given his proven ability to play big and rebound, he will get more minutes than he did a year ago. How much value he adds, and how much Self wants to play a true 5 (which means benching a player with better skills) will determine how much Mbiya sees the floor. We see him as nearing bubble-level, and as a backup this wouldn’t hurt the team much.

Christian Reeves (Sr.) C: 20.8% of minutes, +3.14 Per100, +0.46 PPGAB

Reeves is tough to forecast, as he has battled injuries during the summer/fall and is only now finally practicing at full-speed. The staff expects him to be healthy for the first game (November 2), so we could have shifted his minutes up more. With Reeves, his efficiency numbers graded out very well last year while at Charleston, and he proved he plays with legitimate size given his rebounding. This marks are a bit of a hedge, we could see him playing more minutes, but we could also see him playing at a lower efficiency level if called on to be the lead center.

Davion Adkins (Fr.) PF: 6.1% of minutes, -4.43 Per100, -0.28 PPGAB

Adkins is an interesting case, in that he could still get rotation minutes if he proves to be a good enough player. He has the size and athletic build that Self loves, but given KU’s veteran depth, he might find it hard to crack the rotation. Self has been saying he wants to play “10 guys” in the rotation, but Adkins is currently our 11^th.

Trent Perry (Fr.) SF: 4.3% of minutes, -6.13 Per100, -0.37 PPGAB

Perry is behind a number of wings. But if both Council and White become ineligible, he might get an opportunity and more minutes if others on the wing struggle. He is a strong-looking player, but we don’t really know much about how we will play against legitimate D1 talent.

Luke Barnett (Fr.) SG: 2.6% of minutes, -6.50 Per100, -0.24 PPGAB

Barnett comes in as a shooter, so he might have a better chance at cracking the rotation than Perry if KU decides they need another shooter to get minutes. But most true freshmen who come to Kansas had a higher class ranking than Barnett, so don’t expect much.

Grant Mordini (Fr.) PF: 1.0% of minutes, -15.00 Per100, -0.40 PPGAB

Atticus Richmond (Fr.) PF: 0.5% of minutes, -15.00 Per100, -0.22 PPGAB

Will Thengvall (Jr.) SG: 0.4% of minutes, -15.00 Per100, -0.18 PPGAB

Practice players that aren’t expected to play much, and any minutes they receive will be low-leverage ones.

Kansas TEAM scenarios:

Scenario A: +12.30 PPGAB, +31.57 KenPom

Let’s get it out of the way. If KU can keep its players eligible and if they perform as they should (given what they all did last season), there’s no reason why Kansas can’t get back to being a top team in the nation. It feels weird to offer optimism given how KU has done the last few seasons (and particularly in the transfer portal era), but Self has a very deep team with both Council and White returning.

Note that KU doesn’t necessarily need to hit on everyone; they can play the guys that are performing and maximize the minutes in the best way possible. KU should hit on at least 2 out of the 4 transfers, get some decent play from a few non-Stokes freshmen, get the assumed development out of Kohl and/or Paul, etc. and still be fine.

What is interesting here is that Self has depth again, in a way even that the 2025 team didn’t. Can he use it? He says he wants to play a 10-man rotation, and at least early on I hope we see that. Developing a deep bench will help keep guys rested and ready for March, keep the competition between players on the team, and hopefully assuage any injury or eligibility issue that might arise.

Scenario B (no White): +11.11 PPGAB, +29.87 KenPom

Losing only Tre White isn’t as bad as you might think, assuming that Stokes and some others can fill in the minutes with about as much efficiency. KU would still be very deep in this situation. Some scoring and some other play on the wing might dip a touch, but this is where KU is deepest.

Scenario C (no Council): +9.71 PPGAB, +27.86 KenPom

Without Melvin (but with Tre), KU is still a solid team, but there is definitely minutes that need filling in. At least one but likely both of Blyden and Kinney will need to play serious minutes. Are either up to the task? We just don’t know at this point, so we see a bit more of a pessimistic outlook than in Scenario B.

Scenario D (neither Council nor White): +7.33 PPGAB, +24.48 KenPom

Without either, Kansas’s depth gets challenged considerably. Not only will the team need more minutes from its backcourt, it will need the remaining players to take on a bigger role in terms of offensive creation and leadership. Note that this would be the baseline estimate for a team without Melvin or Tre, so the fact KU has a possibility of keeping one or both eligible should be seen as a win.

Final Scenario

Blending it together, and attempting to predict the likelihood of each player remaining eligible, we see KU as a +10.17 PPGAB and +28.53 KenPom team (roughly a 2-seed). This is close to where KenPom has them in the preseason (+27.16, ranked 8^th).

10/19/2026 Update – Trey Kaufman-Renn

As if this off-season couldn’t get any wilder, KU has officially announced the inclusion of Trey Kaufman-Renn (TKR) to the roster. He is another Fifth-Year player, only eligible due to a court injunction against the NCAA and, like Tre White and Melvin Council, potentially ineligible sometime down the road. TKR played for Purdue and was an extremely important piece for the Boilermakers the last two seasons. As a senior a year ago, he led the team in rebounds and was the third-leading scorer. He is 6’9 and listed as a power forward. Kansas will be able to use him either at the 4 or 5, but of course lineups are still very much a work in progress.

In order to make room for TKR, KU announced a season-ending injury to Grant Mordini. This gets KU to the 15-player limit (+1 for grandfathered walk-on Will Thengvall), with 14 of these players legitimate scholarship pieces that could theoretically play rotation minutes for the team. We haven’t seen this depth ever at KU, and anything that rivals it would likely take us back to 2011 or 2010 at the earliest. KU has 3 Graduates (5th-years), 3 Seniors, 3 Sophomores, and 5 Freshmen among its 14. And while we mentioned that three of these freshmen are likely not going to play much given their incoming class ranking, on the court against Pitt State they looked as sharp as some we thought were going to crack the rotation. The point here is that everything is a mess. We don’t have a clue as to how this season will play out.

Doing our best, here’s the amended projection for 2027, sorted by minutes played, keeping the value projections based on earlier estimates, but manipulating the minutes a bit more based on some new information.

• Tyran Stokes: +6.94 Per100, 73.5% minutes
• Melvin Council: +6.25 Per100, 66.5% minutes
• Tre White: +4.26 Per100, 62.5% minutes
• Trey Kaufman-Renn: +5.89 Per100, 54.0% minutes
• Keanu Dawes: +3.94 Per100, 52.5% minutes
• Christian Reeves: +3.14 Per100, 43.5% minutes
• Taylen Kinney: +1.07 Per100, 38.5% minutes
• Leroy Blyden: +0.54 Per100, 37.5% minutes
• Dennis Parker: +1.97 Per100, 26.5% minutes
• Paul Mbiya: -0.43 Per100, 13.5% minutes
• Kohl Rosario: +1.35 Per100, 12.5% minutes
• Davion Adkins: -4.43 Per100, 8.0% minutes
• Trent Perry: -6.13 Per100, 5.0% minutes
• Luke Barnett: -6.50 Per100, 5.0% minutes
• Atticus Richmond: -15.00 Per100, 0.5% minutes
• Will Thengvall: -15.00 Per100, 0.5% minutes

These estimates produce a +13.05 PPGAB team, or KenPom of +32.64. Of course the remaining caveats apply regarding eligibility.

This would be the third-best team in the Self era (2008, 2010) and fourth-best since 1993 (1997).

With TKR in the mix, we see a solidified front court. We also see Paul Mbiya getting fewer minutes, as the fourth-best among the four true PF/C types. There have been questions about Keanu Dawes and his adjustment as well, which would indicate more of a need for TKR. On the flip side, Christian Reeves has gotten healthy and had the best exhibition game according to Coach Self. These four players make up 163.5% of possible minutes, indicating a projection of KU having at least two of these bigs on the floor 80% of the time. This number gets slightly higher if we include Davion Adkins.

The PG rotation of Council, Kinney, and Blyden makes up 142.5% of minutes, and it seems reasonable to assume that KU will play a mix of both styles–either two of these guys at one time or just one.

Lastly, we will broadly classify everyone else as a wing, and the Stokes/White/Parker/Rosario foursome produces a projected 175% of possible minutes. At times three of these guys should play, and at times only one. If we add Perry and Barnett to this group, this goes to 185%.

Top 20 in Power Ratings:

1. LSU +33.93
2. Alabama +31.08
3. Notre Dame +28.71
4. Georgia +28.67
5. Miami +27.66
6. Texas +27.13
7. Ole Miss +25.91
8. Ohio State +23.59
9. Utah +22.80
10. Tennessee +21.43
11. South Carolina +20.60
12. Missouri +20.48
13. Wake Forest +20.03
14. Florida +19.40
15. Kentucky +19.39
16. UCLA +19.34
17. Indiana +19.17
18. Texas A&M +16.79
19. Baylor +16.15
20. Northwestern +16.06

46. Kansas +6.86

A slew of SEC teams are at the top, as this conference as shown itself to be the deepest and toughest once again.

Conference Averages:

• SEC +19.16
• Big 10 +9.62
• Big 12 +8.88
• ACC +3.75

The SEC grew its lead as the top conference, with the average SEC team 9.5 points better than the average Big 10 team.

KU is currently 3-5 (1-4). Its next game is against UCF on 11/7.

Date	Location	Opponent	Time	Network	Odds	Win?	Score	Record
9/4/26	Home	Long Island	7:00 PM	ESPNU	99.0%	Y	51-6	1-0
9/11/26	Home	Missouri	7:00 PM	FOX	36.8%	N	21-38	1-1
9/19/26	Neutral	Arizona State	11:00 AM	FS1	46.5%	N	17-24	1-2
10/3/26	Home	Middle Tennessee	11:00 AM	ESPNU	88.6%	Y	55-0	2-2
10/10/26	Away	Utah	7:00 PM	ESPNN	11.1%	N	24-41	2-3
10/17/26	Away	Kansas State	11:00 AM	FS1	38.6%	N	24-35	2-4
10/24/26	Home	Baylor	12:00 PM	TNT	38.2%	Y	25-24	3-4
10/31/26	Away	TCU	2:30 PM	FS1	34.5%	N	16-22	3-5

Here are the odds for the rest of the season as of 11/2/2026:

Date	Location	Opponent	ESPN FPI Odds
11/7/2026	Home	UCF	63.4%
11/14/2026	Away	West Virginia	51.2%
11/21/2026	Home	BYU	28.2%
11/28/2026	Away	Oklahoma State	27.3%

This comes to an estimated win total of 4.70, of which the simulations show a 20.5% chance of reaching the 6+ win threshold needed to confirm bowl eligibility. KU will need to win at least 3 of its final 4 games to make a bowl.

Below is the power ratings for 2026 Kansas High School football through Week 9 (first round of playoffs). These ratings provide an estimate in relative strength in terms of points per game.

Rank	Team	Class	Record	Rating
1	Kapaun Mt. Carmel	5A	9-0	56.26
2	Andale	3A	9-0	53.53
3	Bishop Miege	4A	9-0	50.61
4	Derby	6A	9-0	45.69
5	Hays	5A	8-1	45.64
6	Wichita Northwest	6A	7-2	43.93
7	Manhattan	6A	7-2	43.07
8	Blue Valley	5A	7-2	42.95
9	Mill Valley	6A	9-0	42.41
10	Maize	6A	8-1	41.42
11	Bishop Carroll	5A	8-1	40.23
12	Lawrence	6A	7-2	37.92
13	Silver Lake	2A	9-0	37.78
14	Olathe Northwest	6A	7-2	37.62
15	St. Thomas Aquinas	4A	6-3	37.42
16	McPherson	4A	8-1	35.52
17	Buhler	4A	7-2	34.96
18	Spring Hill	5A	8-1	33.67
19	Gardner Edgerton	6A	7-2	32.87
20	Wamego	4A	7-1	32.79
21	De Soto	5A	9-0	32.59
22	St. James Academy	5A	6-3	32.32
23	Blue Valley North	5A	4-5	32.31
24	Tonganoxie	4A	6-3	31.79
25	Great Bend	4A	7-2	30.81
26	Basehor-Linwood	5A	7-2	30.56
27	Andover	5A	9-0	30.24
28	Eudora	4A	7-2	29.61
29	Garden City	6A	6-3	29.26
30	Junction City	6A	4-5	29.01
31	Jefferson West	3A	7-2	27.60
32	Blue Valley Northwest	6A	5-4	26.90
33	Topeka Hayden	3A	5-4	26.85
34	Shawnee Mission East	6A	3-6	26.56
35	Olathe West	6A	6-3	26.45
36	Louisburg	4A	7-2	25.86
37	Hesston	3A	8-1	25.62
38	Olathe North	6A	6-3	25.37
39	Wellington	4A	7-2	25.35
40	Rossville	1A	7-2	24.89
41	Chapman	3A	7-2	24.58
42	Cheney	3A	7-2	24.42
43	Topeka Seaman	5A	5-4	24.05
44	Wichita East	6A	3-6	23.33
45	Wichita Southeast	6A	6-3	22.82
46	Holcomb	3A	8-1	22.70
47	Paola	4A	5-4	22.58
48	Salina Central	5A	6-3	22.36
49	Sterling	1A	9-0	22.35
50	Rock Creek	4A	7-2	22.31
51	Rose Hill	4A	5-4	22.21
52	Caney Valley	2A	9-0	22.18
53	Sabetha	2A	9-0	21.47
54	Wichita Collegiate	3A	5-4	19.94
55	Nemaha Central	3A	6-3	19.01
56	Shawnee Mission Northwest	6A	4-5	18.70
57	Baldwin	3A	7-2	18.38
58	Riverside	2A	8-1	18.36
59	Council Grove	2A	8-1	18.06
60	Hutchinson	5A	4-5	17.73
61	Salina South	5A	6-3	17.71
62	Goddard Eisenhower	5A	5-4	17.61
63	Lawrence Free State	6A	4-5	17.55
64	Marysville	2A	7-2	16.69
65	Kansas City Washington	5A	7-2	16.62
66	Goddard	5A	4-5	16.61
67	Maize South	5A	4-5	16.46
68	Washburn Rural	6A	4-5	16.38
69	Southeast of Saline	2A	5-4	16.13
70	Wellsville	3A	9-0	16.09
71	Liberal	5A	3-6	15.80
72	Hoisington	3A	7-2	15.78
73	Ulysses	4A	7-2	15.64
74	Augusta	4A	6-3	15.62
75	Kansas City Piper	5A	6-3	14.99
76	Frontenac	3A	9-0	14.81
77	Riley County	2A	7-2	14.48
78	Mulvane	4A	4-5	14.36
79	Beloit	2A	8-1	14.26
80	Andover Central	5A	3-6	14.13
81	Blue Valley Southwest	5A	2-7	13.00
82	Chaparral	2A	9-0	12.86
83	Hugoton	3A	5-4	11.93
84	Haven	2A	7-2	11.11
85	Osage City	2A	7-2	10.49
86	Wichita Heights	6A	2-7	10.40
87	Inman	1A	7-2	10.21
88	Ottawa	4A	5-4	9.38
89	Dodge City	6A	3-6	8.99
90	Garden Plain	2A	7-2	8.61
91	Smith Center	1A	7-2	8.16
92	Royal Valley	2A	5-4	7.98
93	Olathe South	6A	5-4	7.46
94	Independence	4A	6-3	7.41
95	Columbus	3A	6-3	7.32
96	Shawnee Mission North	6A	4-5	6.87
97	Fort Scott	4A	6-3	6.33
98	St. Marys	1A	3-6	5.14
99	Lansing	4A	4-5	5.11
100	Neodesha	2A	8-1	5.10
101	Thomas More Prep-Marian	1A	9-0	4.83
102	Girard	3A	5-4	4.69
103	Jefferson County North	1A	8-1	4.24
104	Blue Valley West	6A	0-9	4.19
105	Goodland	3A	5-4	3.84
106	Hillsboro	1A	6-3	3.61
107	Newton	5A	1-8	3.58
108	Kingman	2A	8-1	2.63
109	Chanute	4A	3-6	2.27
110	McLouth	1A	8-1	1.94
111	Pratt	3A	4-5	1.51
112	Emporia	5A	4-5	0.94
113	Campus	6A	0-9	0.74
114	Arkansas City	4A	2-7	0.54
115	Pittsburg	5A	3-6	-0.15
116	Scott Community	3A	2-7	-0.24
117	Perry-Lecompton	3A	4-5	-0.33
118	Baxter Springs	2A	5-4	-0.65
119	Winfield	4A	3-6	-0.78
120	Olathe East	6A	0-9	-0.85
121	Centralia	1A	6-3	-2.08
122	Burlington	3A	7-2	-2.17
123	Leavenworth	5A	3-6	-2.70
124	Phillipsburg	2A	3-6	-2.73
125	Labette County	4A	4-5	-2.74
126	Wichita South	6A	2-7	-2.86
127	Valley Center	5A	2-7	-2.98
128	Cimarron	2A	4-5	-3.37
129	Concordia	3A	3-6	-3.45
130	Santa Fe Trail	3A	4-5	-3.76
131	Clay Center	3A	2-7	-4.30
132	Circle	4A	2-7	-4.35
133	Halstead	2A	4-5	-4.72
134	Olpe	1A	7-2	-5.30
135	Norton	2A	4-5	-5.39
136	Douglass	2A	5-4	-6.06
137	Iola	3A	4-5	-6.70
138	Shawnee Mission South	6A	1-8	-7.11
139	St. Mary’s-Colgan	1A	5-4	-7.42
140	Topeka	6A	1-8	-7.94
141	Plainville	1A	4-5	-8.43
142	Bonner Springs	4A	1-8	-9.31
143	Shawnee Mission West	6A	0-9	-11.77
144	Abilene	4A	1-8	-11.92
145	Shawnee Heights	5A	1-8	-12.09
146	Wichita Trinity Academy	3A	2-7	-13.30
147	Clearwater	3A	1-8	-14.34
148	Conway Springs	1A	5-4	-14.42
149	Jackson Heights	1A	4-5	-14.82
150	Riverton	2A	4-5	-15.23
151	Holton	3A	2-7	-16.52
152	Medicine Lodge	1A	4-5	-17.48
153	El Dorado	4A	1-8	-19.36
154	Oskaloosa	2A	3-6	-20.36
155	Colby	3A	2-7	-20.53
156	Remington	1A	4-5	-21.11
157	Wabaunsee	1A	4-5	-21.46
158	Onaga	1A	5-4	-22.02
159	Cherryvale	2A	4-5	-22.80
160	Marion	2A	2-7	-23.34
161	Wichita West	5A	1-8	-23.46
162	Moundridge	1A	5-4	-23.60
163	Kansas City Sumner	4A	7-2	-23.74
164	Pleasant Ridge	2A	3-6	-24.29
165	Ellsworth	2A	2-7	-24.32
166	Smoky Valley	3A	3-6	-25.36
167	Central Heights	2A	5-4	-25.36
168	Humboldt	2A	6-3	-25.46
169	Topeka West	5A	1-8	-25.48
170	Galena	2A	1-8	-26.41
171	Salina Sacred Heart	1A	4-5	-27.13
172	Prairie View	3A	5-4	-27.65
173	Lyons	3A	5-4	-28.17
174	Atchison County	1A	1-8	-28.36
175	Republic County	1A	3-6	-28.79
176	Kansas City Turner	5A	1-8	-29.02
177	Anderson County	3A	1-8	-30.58
178	Valley Heights	1A	6-3	-31.07
179	Maur Hill Prep	1A	3-6	-31.11
180	Topeka Highland Park	4A	4-5	-31.32
181	Parsons	3A	1-8	-31.34
182	Field Kindley	4A	0-9	-31.49
183	Belle Plaine	1A	2-7	-31.50
184	Russell	2A	1-8	-31.89
185	Larned	3A	1-8	-32.28
186	Minneapolis	2A	1-8	-34.47
187	Hiawatha	3A	1-8	-35.43
188	Jayhawk Linn	2A	3-6	-36.18
189	Horton	2A	3-6	-36.26
190	Southwestern Heights	2A	3-6	-36.74
191	Bishop Ward	3A	1-7	-36.83
192	Lakin	2A	1-8	-37.39
193	Ellinwood	1A	1-8	-37.65
194	Atchison	3A	3-6	-39.33
195	Wichita North	6A	0-9	-40.13
196	Mission Valley	1A	1-8	-40.52
197	Fredonia	2A	1-8	-41.15
198	Kansas City Wyandotte	6A	1-8	-41.99
199	Nickerson	3A	1-8	-43.00
200	Hutchinson Trinity	1A	1-8	-43.59
201	Kansas City Harmon	5A	4-5	-44.08
202	Osawatomie	3A	2-7	-44.42
203	Valley Falls	1A	1-8	-44.99
204	Doniphan West	1A	1-8	-48.25
205	West Franklin	2A	1-8	-51.12
206	Syracuse	1A	1-8	-53.07
207	Uniontown	1A	3-6	-53.57
208	Kansas City Schlagle	4A	2-7	-54.75
209	Eureka	1A	1-8	-56.63
210	Sedgwick	1A	1-8	-57.32
211	Northeast	1A	2-7	-57.76
212	Bluestem	1A	1-8	-59.99
213	Maranatha Academy	2A	0-9	-63.90

Average rating by Class

Class	Avg. Rating
6A	+16.04
5A	+14.01
4A	+9.02
3A	-3.04
2A	-9.04
1A	-21.73

Playoff Predictions

After the first round of playoff games, here is who we see as having the best odds to win the State Title for each Class:

6A

• Mill Valley: 20.7%
• Derby: 20.3%
• Wichita Northwest: 15.2%
• Manhattan: 13.0%
• Maize: 12.2%
• Olathe Northwest: 8.1%
• Lawrence: 7.5%
• Gardner Edgerton: 2.4%
• Blue Valley Northwest: 0.2%
• Olathe West: 0.2%
• Garden City: 0.2%

5A

• Kapaun Mt. Carmel: 57.5%
• Blue Valley: 15.9%
• Hays: 11.8%
• Bishop Carroll: 8.0%
• Spring Hill: 1.6%
• Basehor-Linwood: 1.3%
• Blue Valley North: 1.2%
• De Soto: 1.0%
• St. James Academy: 1.0%
• Andover: 0.6%

4A

• Bishop Miege: 61.0%
• McPherson: 11.2%
• St. Thomas Aquinas: 5.3%
• Buhler: 5.3%
• Tonganoxie: 5.2%
• Wamego: 4.5%
• Eudora: 2.6%
• Great Bend: 2.2%
• Louisburg: 1.3%
• Wellington: 1.1%
• Rock Creek: 0.2%

3A

• Andale: 83.7%
• Jefferson West: 5.4%
• Topeka Hayden: 3.8%
• Hesston: 2.3%
• Chapman: 1.2%
• Holcomb: 1.0%
• Cheney: 0.7%
• Nemaha Central: 0.5%
• Wichita Collegiate: 0.5%
• Baldwin: 0.5%
• Wellsville: 0.2%
• Frontenac: 0.2%

2A

• Silver Lake: 74.3%
• Caney Valley: 5.6%
• Sabetha: 4.3%
• Council Grove: 4.2%
• Marysville: 3.8%
• Riverside: 2.0%
• Riley County: 1.7%
• Beloit: 1.7%
• Chaparral: 1.3%
• Garden Plain: 0.7%
• Osage City: 0.2%

1A

• Rossville: 54.3%
• Sterling: 37.9%
• Inman: 2.6%
• Smith Center: 1.5%
• Thomas More Prep-Marian: 0.9%
• St. Marys: 0.9%
• Jefferson County North: 0.7%
• McLouth: 0.5%
• Hillsboro: 0.4%
• Centralia: 0.2%
• Olpe: 0.1%

The first week of the playoffs made quite a few changes to the odds, as the increased cross-play between teams of different sub-regions and leagues helped us get a fuller picture of the relatives strengths of everyone.

6A now looks wide open, with perennial powers Mill Valley and Derby at the top but neither clearing a 21% chance. 5A is still Kapaun’s to lose, but they are only expected to win state a little over half the time. Miege in 4A has a little better chance but still not the easiest path, as they draw Aquinas in the second round. Andale should win 3A, as should Silver Lake in 2A. But it is 1A that has the best potential state championship game…a Rossville/Sterling matchup would be exciting.

Power Ratings for 2015. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.

Rank	Team	Class	Record	Rating
1	Mill Valley	5A	12-1	66.91
2	Bishop Miege	4A-I	12-1	63.71
3	St. Thomas Aquinas	5A	9-3	57.72
4	Derby	6A	12-1	55.97
5	Blue Valley	6A	10-3	48.84
6	Lawrence Free State	6A	8-4	48.33
7	Junction City	6A	10-1	45.62
8	Blue Valley North	6A	8-2	43.81
9	Lawrence	6A	10-1	43.61
10	Shawnee Mission East	6A	9-2	42.78
11	Wichita Northwest	6A	10-1	41.78
12	Olathe North	6A	9-3	41.54
13	Bishop Carroll	5A	11-2	40.86
14	Wichita Collegiate	3A	13-1	40.08
15	Shawnee Mission West	6A	7-3	39.22
16	Topeka	6A	8-2	39.08
17	Pittsburg	5A	9-2	38.71
18	Bonner Springs	5A	7-2	38.11
19	Rossville	3A	14-0	37.44
20	Hutchinson	6A	6-4	35.24
21	St. James Academy	5A	9-2	35.23
22	Eudora	4A-I	8-4	33.30
23	Louisburg	4A-I	7-3	30.83
24	Buhler	4A-I	10-1	30.83
25	Garden City	6A	7-2	30.73
26	Holcomb	4A-II	11-2	30.23
27	Scott Community	3A	10-1	30.18
28	Paola	4A-I	9-2	30.05
29	Hoisington	3A	11-1	29.93
30	Dodge City	6A	5-4	29.90
31	Halstead	3A	12-1	29.48
32	Olathe Northwest	6A	6-3	29.12
33	Manhattan	6A	5-4	28.40
34	Andale	4A-II	9-3	28.34
35	Andover Central	4A-I	10-3	24.65
36	Abilene	4A-I	9-2	24.22
37	Blue Valley Northwest	6A	2-8	24.17
38	Basehor-Linwood	4A-I	6-5	24.05
39	Nemaha Central	3A	10-1	22.64
40	Columbus	4A-II	11-1	22.59
41	Washburn Rural	6A	5-4	22.55
42	Lansing	5A	6-4	22.00
43	Salina South	5A	5-5	22.00
44	De Soto	4A-I	6-4	21.86
45	Emporia	5A	4-5	21.67
46	Maize South	5A	8-3	21.38
47	Blue Valley West	5A	2-7	21.35
48	Topeka Hayden	4A-I	10-2	20.90
49	Silver Lake	3A	9-2	20.65
50	Salina Central	5A	4-5	20.46
51	Goddard	5A	6-4	20.08
52	Wichita Heights	5A	7-4	19.87
53	Norton	3A	9-3	19.18
54	Ulysses	4A-I	8-2	18.84
55	Phillipsburg	2A-1A	11-2	18.52
56	Wichita West	6A	5-5	18.36
57	Holton	4A-II	9-4	18.04
58	Kapaun Mt. Carmel	5A	7-3	18.00
59	Fort Scott	4A-I	7-3	17.64
60	Wellsville	3A	10-3	16.44
61	Great Bend	5A	7-3	16.43
62	Atchison	4A-I	8-1	16.28
63	Hesston	3A	8-2	16.13
64	Gardner Edgerton	6A	2-7	15.80
65	Mulvane	4A-I	5-5	15.00
66	Smith Center	2A-1A	10-2	14.92
67	Olathe East	6A	3-6	14.36
68	McPherson	4A-I	5-4	13.50
69	Wichita South	6A	5-4	13.08
70	Blue Valley Southwest	5A	3-6	12.81
71	Leavenworth	5A	2-8	12.24
72	Augusta	4A-I	7-3	11.85
73	Goddard Eisenhower	5A	7-5	11.35
74	Ottawa	4A-I	5-4	10.72
75	St. Mary’s-Colgan	3A	9-3	10.42
76	Sabetha	3A	7-5	10.36
77	Osawatomie	4A-II	7-3	10.20
78	Jefferson West	4A-II	5-4	10.14
79	Kansas City Piper	4A-I	4-6	9.70
80	Shawnee Mission Northwest	6A	1-8	9.17
81	Colby	4A-II	4-6	9.09
82	Frontenac	4A-II	7-4	8.97
83	Garden Plain	3A	9-2	8.02
84	Perry-Lecompton	4A-II	4-5	7.86
85	Hays	4A-I	2-7	7.61
86	Pratt	4A-II	4-5	7.54
87	Royal Valley	4A-II	6-3	7.28
88	Hugoton	4A-II	5-6	6.99
89	Baldwin	4A-I	2-7	6.95
90	Maize	5A	1-8	6.89
91	Southeast of Saline	3A	7-3	6.75
92	Beloit	3A	7-3	6.71
93	Campus	6A	2-7	6.69
94	Valley Center	5A	4-5	6.61
95	Meade	2A-1A	10-1	6.58
96	Nickerson	4A-II	4-6	6.48
97	Santa Fe Trail	4A-II	6-5	6.43
98	Topeka Seaman	5A	2-8	6.37
99	Galena	3A	7-4	6.22
100	Olathe South	6A	1-8	5.99
101	Wellington	4A-I	4-5	5.03
102	Washington County	3A	10-1	4.56
103	Shawnee Mission North	6A	3-7	4.35
104	Concordia	4A-II	6-4	3.53
105	Clay Center	4A-II	4-5	3.45
106	Spring Hill	4A-I	2-7	3.21
107	Prairie View	4A-II	5-4	2.88
108	Larned	4A-II	4-5	2.87
109	Kansas City Turner	5A	2-7	2.30
110	Independence	4A-I	7-3	2.19
111	Sedgwick	2A-1A	9-1	2.11
112	Tonganoxie	4A-I	3-6	0.79
113	Oakley	2A-1A	7-4	0.63
114	Kingman	3A	4-5	0.23
115	Wichita Trinity Academy	4A-II	6-3	0.20
116	Wichita North	6A	1-9	-0.69
117	Troy	2A-1A	10-2	-1.27
118	Chaparral	3A	6-3	-1.42
119	Shawnee Mission South	6A	1-8	-1.54
120	Clearwater	4A-II	3-7	-1.84
121	Wamego	4A-II	5-6	-1.87
122	Labette County	4A-I	3-6	-2.31
123	Cherryvale	3A	8-2	-2.43
124	Rock Creek	3A	3-6	-2.77
125	Andover	5A	1-8	-3.36
126	Kansas City Schlagle	5A	4-5	-4.30
127	Parsons	4A-II	3-6	-4.42
128	Conway Springs	3A	6-4	-4.65
129	Girard	4A-II	6-4	-6.25
130	Riley County	3A	5-4	-6.29
131	Cimarron	3A	6-4	-6.60
132	Pleasant Ridge	3A	8-2	-6.78
133	Newton	5A	1-8	-6.91
134	Centralia	3A	5-5	-7.06
135	Cheney	3A	7-3	-7.08
136	Shawnee Heights	5A	3-7	-7.79
137	Riverside	3A	4-6	-8.14
138	Wichita East	6A	1-8	-8.30
139	Marysville	3A	4-6	-8.89
140	Wichita Southeast	6A	1-8	-9.54
141	Neodesha	3A	9-2	-9.81
142	Maur Hill Prep	3A	6-3	-10.44
143	Plainville	2A-1A	3-6	-10.46
144	Chanute	4A-I	2-7	-11.26
145	Liberal	5A	2-7	-11.36
146	Olpe	2A-1A	9-3	-11.47
147	Chapman	4A-II	4-5	-11.50
148	Salina Sacred Heart	2A-1A	5-5	-11.94
149	Wichita Independent	3A	4-7	-12.85
150	Ellis	2A-1A	6-4	-13.35
151	Iola	4A-II	3-6	-13.39
152	Arkansas City	5A	1-8	-13.47
153	Goodland	4A-II	3-6	-14.16
154	Caney Valley	3A	5-5	-14.28
155	Lyons	3A	3-7	-14.58
156	Jackson Heights	2A-1A	8-2	-14.67
157	Anderson County	4A-II	5-5	-15.20
158	Smoky Valley	4A-II	2-7	-15.65
159	El Dorado	4A-I	2-7	-15.71
160	Ellsworth	3A	5-4	-16.57
161	Winfield	4A-I	3-6	-16.77
162	Kansas City Sumner	4A-I	4-5	-17.23
163	Russell	3A	3-6	-17.58
164	Marion	2A-1A	7-2	-17.78
165	Council Grove	3A	6-3	-17.78
166	Sterling	3A	4-5	-18.25
167	Bennington	2A-1A	5-4	-18.56
168	Riverton	3A	2-7	-18.86
169	Northern Heights	2A-1A	6-4	-19.43
170	Hutchinson Trinity	3A	3-6	-20.44
171	Republic County	2A-1A	4-5	-20.91
172	LaCrosse	2A-1A	3-6	-21.13
173	Osage City	3A	4-5	-21.34
174	Topeka Highland Park	5A	0-9	-22.08
175	Mission Valley	2A-1A	7-3	-22.14
176	Fredonia	3A	5-4	-22.15
177	Lyndon	2A-1A	8-3	-22.23
178	Topeka West	5A	2-7	-22.34
179	Southwestern Heights	3A	4-5	-22.37
180	Burlington	4A-II	3-6	-23.80
181	St. Marys	3A	1-8	-24.96
182	Kansas City Wyandotte	6A	1-8	-25.20
183	Medicine Lodge	2A-1A	4-5	-25.55
184	Ell-Saline	2A-1A	3-6	-25.81
185	Jefferson County North	2A-1A	6-4	-25.93
186	Humboldt	3A	4-5	-26.46
187	Thomas More Prep-Marian	3A	1-8	-26.67
188	Oskaloosa	3A	4-5	-26.71
189	Rose Hill	4A-I	0-9	-26.82
190	Field Kindley	4A-I	0-9	-27.90
191	Haven	4A-II	1-8	-28.89
192	Doniphan West	2A-1A	4-5	-28.90
193	Bishop Ward	4A-II	0-9	-30.02
194	Valley Heights	2A-1A	2-7	-30.56
195	Wabaunsee	2A-1A	3-7	-30.91
196	Chase County	2A-1A	2-7	-31.08
197	Circle	4A-I	0-9	-31.56
198	Minneapolis	3A	0-9	-32.22
199	Baxter Springs	4A-II	2-7	-32.43
200	Lakin	3A	2-7	-33.82
201	Moundridge	2A-1A	3-6	-34.00
202	Kansas City Harmon	6A	2-7	-34.51
203	Inman	2A-1A	1-8	-35.15
204	Hillsboro	3A	0-9	-35.32
205	Kansas City Washington	5A	1-7	-36.05
206	Syracuse	2A-1A	4-6	-36.32
207	Jayhawk Linn	3A	5-5	-36.98
208	Atchison County	3A	3-6	-38.50
209	Southeast	3A	0-9	-40.56
210	Erie	3A	3-7	-41.88
211	West Franklin	3A	2-7	-42.79
212	Eureka	3A	2-7	-42.80
213	Douglass	3A	2-7	-43.61
214	Elkhart	2A-1A	4-5	-44.38
215	Onaga	2A-1A	1-8	-45.16
216	Hiawatha	3A	1-8	-45.33
217	Remington	2A-1A	1-8	-45.89
218	Yates Center	2A-1A	2-7	-45.90
219	McLouth	3A	1-8	-47.09
220	Northeast	3A	3-6	-47.27
221	Bluestem	3A	1-8	-48.03
222	Maranatha Academy	2A-1A	1-7	-48.91
223	Valley Falls	2A-1A	1-8	-50.76
224	Central Heights	3A	0-9	-50.87
225	Belle Plaine	3A	0-9	-52.22
226	Herington	2A-1A	0-9	-52.79
227	Horton	3A	0-9	-54.64
228	Stanton County	2A-1A	1-8	-57.64
229	Oswego	2A-1A	1-8	-58.05
230	Wichita County	2A-1A	1-8	-59.79
231	Sublette	2A-1A	2-7	-62.08

Class	Average Rating	State Champion	Runner-Up
6A	21.83	Derby	Blue Valley
5A	12.86	Mill Valley	Bishop Carroll
4A-I	9.19	Bishop Miege	Andover Central
4A-II	-0.20	Holcomb	Holton
3A	-12.85	Rossville	Wichita Collegiate
2A-1A	-26.62	Phillipsburg	Troy

Date of Projection: 7/20/2026

With the conclusion of the 2026 Major Championship Season as of yesterday, we now look ahead to 2027 and beyond. But before, here are the 2026 Major Champions and the expected major wins we had for them a year ago:

• Masters: Rory McIlroy > 0.3063 (2nd)
• PGA: Aaron Rai > 0.0159 (48th)
• U.S. Open: Wyndham Clark > 0.0325 (29th)
• British: Ryan Fox > 0.0112 (54th)

With 3/4 of the major champions coming from outside of the 25-most likely names, the 2026 major season proved that many from the field could still win a big event if things went right for him. This makes projecting actual major wins very difficult. Which is why our projection is more about what we think how the market will price a golfer’s odds come 2027 and future. While a golfer’s career can take many different paths, we want to estimate a median one given what said golfer has already shown us, which then can be calculated in terms of projected major championships.

2027 Season – Top 50

• Scottie Scheffler: 0.5118
• Rory McIlroy: 0.2800
• Jon Rahm: 0.2112
• Xander Schauffele: 0.1667
• Ludvig Aberg: 0.1614
• Bryson DeChambeau: 0.1598
• Collin Morikawa: 0.1121
• Tommy Fleetwood: 0.0969
• Cameron Young: 0.0857
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 0.0847
• Viktor Hovland: 0.0799
• Brooks Koepka: 0.0747
• Justin Thomas: 0.0715
• Patrick Cantlay: 0.0644
• Hideki Matsuyama: 0.0612
• Joaquin Niemann: 0.0594
• Jordan Spieth: 0.0571
• Tyrrell Hatton: 0.0551
• Tom Kim: 0.0531
• Akshay Bhatia: 0.0490
• Sam Burns: 0.0454
• Min Woo Lee: 0.0451
• Robert MacIntyre: 0.0449
• Si Woo Kim: 0.0393
• Wyndham Clark: 0.0388
• Russell Henley: 0.0385
• Cameron Smith: 0.0385
• Shane Lowry: 0.0371
• Chris Gotterup: 0.0363
• Corey Conners: 0.0356
• Sepp Straka: 0.0345
• Patrick Reed: 0.0338
• Sungjae Im: 0.0338
• Nicolai Hojgaard: 0.0335
• Justin Rose: 0.0261
• Maverick McNealy: 0.0221
• Sahith Theegala: 0.0214
• Jason Day: 0.0209
• Harris English: 0.0206
• Max Homa: 0.0201
• Ben Griffin: 0.0200
• Aaron Rai: 0.0199
• J.J. Spaun: 0.0197
• Kurt Kitayama: 0.0189
• Rasmus Hojgaard: 0.0187
• Keegan Bradley: 0.0181
• Adam Scott: 0.0179
• David Puig: 0.0162
• Daniel Berger: 0.0160
• Rickie Fowler: 0.0158

This chart shows the above table, with Scottie Scheffler’s chances at a major far higher than anyone else’s. There’s been some talk that Scheffler’s dominance is starting to wane (he’s only one once in 2026 and didn’t score a major victory), but Data Golf still has him as the best player in the world by a long shot. His true SG total is at +2.82 strokes for 2026, which is lower than either 2024 or 2025 yet still in front of both his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Rory’s floor has continued to stay high, but next year will be his age 38 season and at some point there will be visible signs of age in his numbers. But given how solid he’s been, we don’t see that necessarily happening for a few years. The trio of Rahm, Schauffele, and DeChambeau are all prime candidates to win a third major within the next few years, but as all are in their 30’s, their best chances are going to come in the next 20 or so majors.

Cameron Young had a poor 2025, so his 2026 season might not be as replicable as people think. Or it might just have been the beginning of him truly reaching his prime years. It’s tough to know. Note that this list of 50 names is expected to win 83.6% of the majors, so don’t be too surprised if 2027 delivers another winner from outside this list, just as 2026 gave us Ryan Fox.

Projected Majors 2027 and Beyond

Now comes the fun part. By combining future projections from multiple seasons, we can better estimate what a player’s median career should be expected to be. Of course for many of these golfers, their careers will look nothing like what we show. Some longshots will win a major, while some solid players who give themselves multiple chances in majors might not ever win one. It’s tough to know now who those will be.

• Scottie Scheffler: 5.70
• Ludvig Aberg: 1.97
• Jon Rahm: 1.79
• Rory McIlroy: 1.38
• Collin Morikawa: 1.34
• Xander Schauffele: 1.24
• Tom Kim: 1.21
• Bryson DeChambeau: 1.20
• Akshay Bhatia: 1.14
• Cameron Young: 1.03
• Viktor Hovland: 0.95
• Joaquin Niemann: 0.74
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 0.72
• Nicolai Hojgaard: 0.57
• Min Woo Lee: 0.57
• Tommy Fleetwood: 0.56
• Justin Thomas: 0.54
• Sam Burns: 0.51
• Robert MacIntyre: 0.50
• Chris Gotterup: 0.47
• Jordan Spieth: 0.43
• Patrick Cantlay: 0.43
• Brooks Koepka: 0.40
• Hideki Matsuyama: 0.40
• Sungjae Im: 0.40
• Jackson Koivun: 0.39
• Si Woo Kim: 0.38
• Rasmus Hojgaard: 0.35
• Tom McKibbin: 0.33
• Tyrrell Hatton: 0.32
• Wyndham Clark: 0.30
• Cameron Smith: 0.29
• Aldrich Potgieter: 0.28
• David Puig: 0.28
• Sepp Straka: 0.26
• Sahith Theegala: 0.25
• Corey Conners: 0.23
• Ben Griffin: 0.22
• Maverick McNealy: 0.22
• Aaron Rai: 0.20
• Russell Henley: 0.19
• Alex Fitzpatrick: 0.19
• Ryo Hisatsune: 0.18
• Patrick Reed: 0.18
• Shane Lowry: 0.18
• Jacob Bridgemen: 0.16
• Ryan Gerard: 0.16
• Kurt Kitayama: 0.15
• Casey Jarvis: 0.15
• Michael Brennan: 0.15

Once again, it is Scottie vs. the rest. At age 30, Scheffler is in his prime and should be for another decade or so. He’s shown enough of a floor in majors that bettors will continue to wager on him even seeing relatively low numbers next to his name. Could his game diminish enough to reduce this considerably? Of course. But the median look here sees him being the best player in the game for another 5+ years and still a force in the game well into his 40’s. Interestingly, Scheffler’s projected remaining career major total from a year ago was 5.83, meaning he only lost 0.13 expected majors in one year. While he didn’t win a major in 2026, it was yet another season which shows him to be the best golfer overall (he had finishes of 2, T14, T4, and T4 in the four majors). Expect more high finishes in 2027, with a possible victory or 2 in the grand slam events.

After Scheffler comes familiar names. Ludvig’s age and history help him. He is currently the 12th ranked golfer in Data Golf, shown himself to be a consistent ball-striker, and put up two top tens in majors in 2026. The market loves these numbers and will continue to bet Aberg in future years. Come five years and guys like Rory and Bryson and Tommy will be on the downslide of their age-curves. But Aberg will be at the peak of his. No guarantees, but he is going to be a legitimate contender in majors to come.

Five names among the next six are all more-or-less similar. Rahm, McIlroy, Morikawa, Schauffele, and DeChambeau. All multiple major winners. All still in their primes and will be contenders in 2027. But each will also be in his 30s the next time the Masters is played. As none are elite in the sense Scottie is, another victory isn’t guaranteed, but I’d wager it is more likely than not if betting on anyone of these guys individually.

Tom Kim and Akshay Bhatia show up due to their ages. Neither has shown himself to be an elite-level player yet, but given their ages and relative skill, they are expected to win about 1 major in their careers. Tom Kim has already posted some top finishes (T2 at 2023 British, 3rd at 2026 U.S. Open) while Akshay has only shown signs of yearly improvement while on tour.

Cameron Young is somewhere in the middle of these two groups of players. Still relatively young, he has time to win majors. But he’s also proven himself as capable in the big events, despite not winning one yet. He should receive the attention of the market during the times he is playing well. He doesn’t have any real weakness in his game, and also has the pedigree of being a bigtime player (won the Players and played well at the Ryder Cup).

After that, some call-outs include Tommy Fleetwood, who will turn 36 next year, still showing a solid chance to win a major. It may happen; it may not. Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas are all multi-major winners in the same boat. About to age out of their primes within 3-5 years, not really contending in majors or other big events recently, etc. but still going to get attention from bettors. It just takes one week, and these guys have shown they can win while in contention. JT does have the T4 at this year’s PGA (which seems to be the only major he consistently plays well in), whereas Jordan’s last top 10 was the 2023 Masters and Brooks’ was his 2023 PGA Championship win.

Jackson Koivun makes it on the list as one of the up-and-comers. The 49th ranked DG player got good odds at the 2026 U.S. Open and is the real deal. His age and relative lack of experience on tour makes things difficult to project. I would love to say that in a couple years we will be projecting him to be a 2+ time major champion, but I also know to be cautious given there’ve been many can’t-miss stars that don’t pan out (Patrick Rodgers, Gordon Sargent come to mind). Others that are younger such as Miles Russell weren’t included at all as projecting their careers is even tougher. Also Blades Brown (87th in DG) has never played in a major.

That is it for the most part. Ideally we would update this projection more frequently, using pre-tournament projected odds as the events got closer while still forecasting out into the distance, using the ebbs and flows of professional golf to better fine tune our forecasts. For the moment we will have to live with this way.

Below is a list of seasons with statistical information about KU Baseball:

2026

We’ve now entered the bracket portion of the World Cup, with 48 teams narrowed to 32 following the pool play.

To make things more relatable, I’ve positioned each match-up to its closest First Round NCAA Tournament seed-line game. For instance, because Canada had a 68.9% chance of winning against South Africa, this was closest to how a 5/12 game historically plays out, with the 5 seed winning about 2/3 of the time over a 12.

This will be updated as games are played and rounds are advanced to.

Round of 32

Completed Games:

• Canada 1-0 over South Africa. Canada 68.9% chance to win. Closest to a 5 over a 12.
• Brazil 2-1 over Japan. Brazil 71.8% chance to win. Closest to a 4 over a 13.
• Paraguay 1-1 over Germany, winning on PK’s. Paraguay 15.6% chance to win. Closest to a 14 over a 3.
• Morocco 1-1 over Netherlands, winning on PK’S. Morocco 41.9% chance to win. Closest to a 10 over a 7.
• Norway 2-1 over Ivory Coast. Norway 60.7% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 10.
• France 3-0 over Sweden. France 84.2% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 14.
• Mexico 2-0 over Ecuador. Mexico 60.4% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 10.
• England 2-1 over DR Congo. England 85.5% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 14.
• Belgium 3-2 over Senegal. Belgium 59.9% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 10.
• United States 2-0 over Bosnia Herzegovina. US 82.8% chance to win. Closest to a 4 over a 13.
• Spain 3-0 over Austria. Spain 86.4% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 14.
• Portugal 2-1 over Croatia. Portugal 71.2% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over a 15.
• Switzerland 2-0 over Algeria. Switzerland 63.4% chance to win. Closest to a 6 over an 11.
• Egypt 1-1 over Australia, winning on PK’s. Egypt 55.6% chance to win. Closest to an 8 over a 9.
• Argentina 3-2 over Cape Verde. Argentina 91.4% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over a 15.
• Colombia 1-0 over Ghana. Colombia 78.3% chance to win. Closest to a 14 over a 3.

The bracket round began with only 2 upsets out of 16, though the games weren’t without drama. The US was one of only five teams to win by multiple goals. Three of the games went to a shootout. The surprise run was from Cape Verde, who nearly sent the game into penalty kicks before losing 3-2 in overtime.

Round of 16

We will use potential NCAA Sweet 16 seed matchups as a comparison. These might not match 100% with historical results, but should still provide a good sentiment as to these team’s relative strengths:

Completed Games:

• Morocco 3-0 over Canada. Morocco 68.9% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 10.
• France 1-0 over Paraguay. France 90.9% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 12.
• Norway 2-1 over Brazil. Norway 35.2% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 2.
• England 3-2 over Mexico. England 55.1% chance to win. Closest to a 5 over an 8.
• Spain 1-0 over Portugal. Spain 65.4% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over a 3.
• Belgium 4-1 over USA. Belgium 46.3% chance to win. Closest to an 8 over a 4.
• Argentina 3-2 over Egypt. Argentina 82.7% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over an 1l.
• Switzerland 0-0 over Colombia, winning on PK’s. Switzerland 41.4% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 6.

Quarterfinals

These games are Elite 8 contests, so we will match as close as possible to how Elite 8 teams have performed by seed.

Completed Games:

• France 2-0 over Morocco. France 75.9% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 6.
• Spain 2-1 over Belgium. Spain 74.3% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 6.
• England 2-1 over Norway. England 65.2% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 3.
• Argentina 3-1 over Switzerland. Argentina 72.0% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 6.

Semifinals

• Spain 2-0 over France. Spain 45.5% chance to win.
• Argentina 2-1 over England. Argentina 40.3% chance to win.

3rd Place Game

• England 6-4 over France.

Championship Game

• Spain 1-0 over Argentina. Spain 59.7% chance to win.

The 2026 World Cup bracket results (as corresponding to a NCAA Tournament) is here.

These rankings include the 2026 World Cup appearances but not the final results yet as the tournament is ongoing:

Country	Points
Brazil	8.3125
Germany	8.2396
Italy	6.2083
Argentina	6.0521
France	4.7917
Uruguay	3.3958
Spain	3.3333
England	3.0729
Netherlands	2.6146
Sweden	2.1146
Hungary	1.5833
Belgium	1.4792
Serbia	1.2917
Croatia	1.2917
Mexico	1.2188
Poland	1.0729
Russia	1.0417
Switzerland	1.0313
Portugal	1
Austria	0.9583
United States	0.9167
Chile	0.8125
Slovakia	0.8021
Czech Republic	0.7917
South Korea	0.7083
Morocco	0.6042
Bulgaria	0.5938
Paraguay	0.5938
Romania	0.5
Colombia	0.4479
Scotland	0.4271
Turkey	0.4167
Peru	0.3854
Denmark	0.375
Japan	0.375
Cameroon	0.3646
Costa Rica	0.3125
Australia	0.3125
Norway	0.2917
Nigeria	0.2813
Ghana	0.2813
Ireland	0.25
Senegal	0.25
Northern Ireland	0.25
Iran	0.2396
Saudi Arabia	0.2396
Tunisia	0.2396
Algeria	0.2083
Egypt	0.1979
Ecuador	0.1875
Bolivia	0.1667
North Korea	0.1563
Wales	0.1563
Greece	0.1354
Canada	0.1354
Cuba	0.125
East Germany	0.125
Ukraine	0.125
Ivory Coast	0.125
South Africa	0.125
El Savador	0.1042
Honduras	0.1042
DR Congo	0.0938
New Zealand	0.0938
Haiti	0.0833
Indonesia	0.0625
Iraq	0.0625
Israel	0.0625
Slovenia	0.0625
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0625
Panama	0.0521
Qatar	0.0521
Kuwait	0.0417
United Arab Emirates	0.0417
Angola	0.0313
China	0.0313
Iceland	0.0313
Jamaica	0.0313
Togo	0.0313
Trinidad and Tobago	0.0313
Cape Verde	0.0313
Curacao	0.0208
Jordan	0.0208
Uzbekistan	0.0208

As with our other rankings, this is done by taking how well a team finished in a certain tournament and calculating this finish as a factor of the champion (who earns 1 full point); and then accumulating the entirety of the event for each team. The champion gets 1 full point, the runner-up 1/2 point, the semi-finalists 1/4 point, etc. In this instance there is a third-place game, so third-place earns 1/3 point and the fourth-place finisher 1/4.

Brazil is the leading team all-time, but just barely over Germany. Brazil has 5 total World Cup championships, but also fewer trips to the semifinals or finals than Germany does. Brazil is also the only nation to qualify for all 23 World Cups. The first team outside of Europe or South America in this ranking is Mexico at 15th, and the United States is 21st. With 12 appearances, the U.S. has been to the World Cup more times than Portugal (9), Hungary (9), Paraguay (9), and Austria (8).

The Netherlands is the best team which hasn’t won the World Cup (9th), and Sweden sitting up in 10th is somewhat of a surprise. South Korea at 25th is the best team from Asia. Morocco at 26th is the best team from Africa. The best team not in the 2026 World Cup is Italy. The 3rd-best team all-time hasn’t made it to any of the last three World Cups.

There are 84 total countries listed on here with a potential for more to join, particularly now that the tournament expanded to 48 teams in 2026. In the footnotes¹ is some information about where the results of former countries roll up into. Additionally, East Germany is the only currently defunct nation without a successor country on the list.

1. Germany includes West Germany. Serbia includes Yugoslavia as well as Serbia and Montenegro. Russia includes the Soviet Union. Both Slovakia and Czech Republic split the results of the former Czechoslovakia 50/50. DR Congo includes Zaire. Indonesia includes Dutch East Indies, as Indonesia as such has never been to a WC. East Germany is the only country on the list without a successor nation and therefore the only country that cannot add to its results in the future. ↩︎