2026 World Cup – Bracket Play

We’ve now entered the bracket portion of the World Cup, with 48 teams narrowed to 32 following the pool play.

To make things more relatable, I’ve positioned each match-up to its closest First Round NCAA Tournament seed-line game. For instance, because Canada had a 68.9% chance of winning against South Africa, this was closest to how a 5/12 game historically plays out, with the 5 seed winning about 2/3 of the time over a 12.

This will be updated as games are played and rounds are advanced to.

Round of 32

Completed Games:

• Canada 1-0 over South Africa. Canada 68.9% chance to win. Closest to a 5 over a 12.
• Brazil 2-1 over Japan. Brazil 71.8% chance to win. Closest to a 4 over a 13.
• Paraguay 1-1 over Germany, winning on PK’s. Paraguay 15.6% chance to win. Closest to a 14 over a 3.
• Morocco 1-1 over Netherlands, winning on PK’S. Morocco 41.9% chance to win. Closest to a 10 over a 7.
• Norway 2-1 over Ivory Coast. Norway 60.7% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 10.
• France 3-0 over Sweden. France 84.2% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 14.
• Mexico 2-0 over Ecuador. Mexico 60.4% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 10.
• England 2-1 over DR Congo. England 85.5% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 14.
• Belgium 3-2 over Senegal. Belgium 59.9% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 10.
• United States 2-0 over Bosnia Herzegovina. US 82.8% chance to win. Closest to a 4 over a 13.
• Spain 3-0 over Austria. Spain 86.4% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 14.
• Portugal 2-1 over Croatia. Portugal 71.2% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over a 15.
• Switzerland 2-0 over Algeria. Switzerland 63.4% chance to win. Closest to a 6 over an 11.
• Egypt 1-1 over Australia, winning on PK’s. Egypt 55.6% chance to win. Closest to an 8 over a 9.
• Argentina 3-2 over Cape Verde. Argentina 91.4% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over a 15.
• Colombia 1-0 over Ghana. Colombia 78.3% chance to win. Closest to a 14 over a 3.

The bracket round began with only 2 upsets out of 16, though the games weren’t without drama. The US was one of only five teams to win by multiple goals. Three of the games went to a shootout. The surprise run was from Cape Verde, who nearly sent the game into penalty kicks before losing 3-2 in overtime.

Round of 16

We will use potential NCAA Sweet 16 seed matchups as a comparison. These might not match 100% with historical results, but should still provide a good sentiment as to these team’s relative strengths:

Completed Games:

• Morocco 3-0 over Canada. Morocco 68.9% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 10.
• France 1-0 over Paraguay. France 90.9% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 12.
• Norway 2-1 over Brazil. Norway 35.2% chance to win. Closest to a 3 over a 2.
• England 3-2 over Mexico. England 55.1% chance to win. Closest to a 5 over an 8.
• Spain 1-0 over Portugal. Spain 65.4% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over a 3.
• Belgium 4-1 over USA. Belgium 46.3% chance to win. Closest to an 8 over a 4.
• Argentina 3-2 over Egypt. Argentina 82.7% chance to win. Closest to a 2 over an 1l.
• Switzerland 0-0 over Colombia, winning on PK’s. Switzerland 41.4% chance to win. Closest to a 7 over a 6.

Quarterfinals

These games are Elite 8 contests, so we will match as close as possible to how Elite 8 teams have performed by seed.

Completed Games:

• France 2-0 over Morocco. France 75.9% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 6.
• Spain 2-1 over Belgium. Spain 74.3% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 6.
• England 2-1 over Norway. England 65.2% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 3.
• Argentina 3-1 over Switzerland. Argentina 72.0% chance to win. Closest to a 1 over a 6.

Semifinals

• Spain 2-0 over France. Spain 45.5% chance to win.
• Argentina 2-1 over England. Argentina 40.3% chance to win.

3rd Place Game

• England 6-4 over France.

Championship Game

• Spain 1-0 over Argentina. Spain 59.7% chance to win.