Eleven games into the 2024 season, KU’s been carried by its “Big 3” of Hunter Dickinson, Kevin McCullar, and K.J. Adams. The trio has combined for 64.7% of KU’s points scored this season while playing 48.4% of available minutes. This production works out to points per game averages of 19.2, 19.2 and 13.0. No one else on the team averages even 7.0.
Additionally, these three have been the best defenders on the team according to the charting. Per total per game value; Dickinson (+6.64), McCullar (+5.14), and Adams (+2.31) are playing well beyond that of a bubble-player, while all 6 of the other scholarship guys are below 0.00. KU is heavily reliant on this trio to win games.
For a Kansas team to be so reliant on just a few players seemed odd, so I explored a way to quantify this and compare it to other KU seasons. The best way was to use WAR, which is additive, and sort each season by that year’s team’s most valuable player to its worst.
Here are the numerous ways the 2024 team stands out:
Of the 2024 team’s total WAR, each of KU’s Big 3 has collected at least 25% of the team’s total WAR (note that a player can be negative if he has negative WAR). Since 1994 (31 seasons), only once has this happened over the course of an entire year (2017 with Frank Mason, Josh Jackson, Devonte’ Graham).
Through 11 games, the trio of HD/KM/KJA has produced 5.94 WAR, which if multiplied out to a 36-game season, would be 19.43. This would be the best out of any KU team’s best three players, with the 2012 team earning 19.07 during a 38-game schedule. (If we compared apples to apples, this year’s Big 3 is on pace to earn 20.51 WAR over 38 games).
It’s not only that this year’s top trio is playing well; it’s also that no one else is doing much. Of the team’s total WAR, the HD/KM/KJA three have earned 124% of the WAR, indicating that the sum of everyone else is below replacement-level. At no point since 1994 have players 4 on down collectively generated negative Wins Above Replacement score for the Kansas Jayhawks. The closest was in 2005, when all players save Wayne Simien, Keith Langford, and Aaron Miles produced a meager 0.53 WAR. The current 2024 non-Big 3 is at -1.15 WAR through 11 games.
Note how the orange dot (Top 3 combined WAR) is always contained within the blue bar (Total Team WAR) except for the 2024 season. For the 2024 team, KU’s needed everything it has gotten from its Big 3 due to the rest of the roster struggling to play at a high level. Projecting forward, one assumes that Dajuan Harris will pick things up. There might also be some reversion down, particularly with Kevin McCullar. McCullar has vastly over-performed his projected marks coming into the season.
(Long article. Scroll down to bottom for the summary)
During the midst of the 2023 season, KU had a 3-game losing streak and a date at Rupp Arena against a talented Kentucky team. Dajuan Harris was coming off poor showings in his last 2 games, and questions surrounded a team that had no true center in the starting rotation and a pass-first point guard who wasn’t a natural scorer.
Kansas went on to beat Kentucky that game, bolstered by great play from Jalen Wilson, but also a good outing from the rest of its starters, including its point guard Dajuan Harris. From that game forward, KU would play 16 games to close out the season. Harris produced a +3.22 per game value score, indicating that he was worth over 3 points per game to Kansas than a “bubble” level player would be. During this stretch, Harris was playing his best ball, comparable to a junior-year Frank Mason (2016 season) or senior-year Tyshawn Taylor (2012 season). Harris was doing it in different ways than these scoring guards; certainly through defense first, but he was also adding value on offense thanks to both shot-making and assisting.
In fact, during the closing stretch of 2023—KU’s final 10 games, Harris produced offensive value of +1.06 per game. This was third on the team behind Wilson and Gradey Dick over that period. While KU getting bounced in the Round of 32 wasn’t fun, no one can blame the play of Dajuan Harris. He was solid against the Razorbacks on both ends, adding about a point-and-a-half both ways and +3.30 points overall. For the season, Harris contributed +2.06 points per game above bubble. Roughly, based on his play, Harris was worth 2 points a night when compared to an average player on a bubble-team.
The elements for Dajuan Harris having a successful 2024 were all in place. He was coming in as a 5th-year-in-the-program player (having redshirted), 2-year starter who saw his game improve each season. Always a defense-first, pass-first player, Harris had improved during the back-half of his junior season and started to be a net contributor to the offensive scheme. This development is common, but not guaranteed, among Bill Self program guys. Harris was making the same strides in his game that others had before him. Some of these strides were unique to him, but he was playing better and making a positive mark on a program that has had numerous talented players come through.
Coming in to the 2024 season, Harris was projected to be a +2.50 player on the season, a conservative improvement on his 2023 value scores. Harris was expected to see a slight bump on both offense and defense. It wasn’t that his expectations were too high. If anything, they were somewhat low. By all appearances, Harris had figured things out. His defense had been consistent throughout his career, and now his offense had finally come around. With Hunter Dickinson coming in, his assist numbers would reach career highs. His shooting and scoring would still be there, but he wouldn’t need to do too much.
But through 10 games, this hasn’t been the case. Not only is Harris not performing to his projections, he isn’t performing anywhere near what he is capable of. He is playing worse than in 2023, by a long shot. He is also playing worse than he did in 2022, when he was a role player on the national championship team. But not only that, Harris is worse than he was in 2021 as a red-shirt freshman who rarely shot and got taken advantage of by stronger players.
Looking at Per 100 numbers, that is the value a player adds (in points) to his team over the course of 100 possessions, Harris’s development looks like this:
2021: -5.18
2022: -1.72
2023: +3.46
Players tend to improve as they age through their college careers, although again not everyone develops in this straight-forward of a manner. Some players have drops in value or flat-line after they reach certain points. So, if Harris was merely on pace to produce a similar or slightly worse season than last year, this wouldn’t be out of the ordinary. Even if Harris was noticeably worse, say close to 0.00, it would be disappointing but not unprecedented. Unfortunately, this isn’t the case, either. In fact, Harris is playing the worst basketball of his career at Kansas.
2024: -5.80
Again, this is a per possession number, so it takes into account the fact Harris is playing more than he has in past seasons. On a per possession basis, Harris is worse than a bubble-player by 5.80 points, which is even worse than his value during his freshman season of 2021.
If we look at it from a per-game mark, it looks even worse. At -3.52, Harris is producing the worse per-game mark of any Jayhawk rotation player by over a full point per game (2019 Quentin Grimes -2.40). Harris is also worse than his prior season at over 5.50 points per game. Never has there been such a drop-off, year-over-year. KU has had players unexpectedly decline, Eric Chenowith’s junior year (2000) being one example (he went from a +2.63 player to a +0.59 player), but it has never been this dramatic.
Breaking down Harris’s play so far, we’ll first look at offense, comparing his 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Going through each line, we see that Harris’s efficiency has slipped from 1.11 to 1.03. What makes this worse is that KU hasn’t faced its meaty conference schedule yet. Not only is Harris less efficient, he is less efficient against an easier schedule. Harris is accounting for nearly 2 fewer points per game on offense than he did last year, despite playing more minutes. Harris is shooting worse overall than he did last season (49.5% vs. 45.2%). He is also shooting less, despite the team needing him for more production. In turn, his impact is less this season. Once we adjust for opponent, we see that Harris is 2 points worse (in terms of overall value) on this end that he was last season.
Breaking down into offensive categories on a Per 100 possession basis, we see (2023 vs. 2024):
Not only is Harris’s scoring down, his handling (turnovers/assists) is also down. Only his boarding, or offensive rebounding value, has changed for the better. But in terms of overall value, this increase is negligible.
Defensively, Harris has declined even more.
Harris went from a stingy defender, giving up 9.2 points per 60 possessions to allowing 11.8 per 60. The other important category, possession winners (PW), went from 5.3 to 4.2 per 60. A player needs to win possessions to add value. Harris is getting fewer steals, forcing fewer turnovers, and not rebounding any better while giving up more points to his man. All despite playing an easier schedule when compared to 2023 numbers. This leads to a player who is worse on the defensive end by more than 3 points a game.
His Per 100 numbers on defense, broken down into categories:
Harris went from KU’s best defender in 2023 to its worse in 2024. How? Well, mostly by giving up too many points to his opponent. A stinginess score in the red means he has to add value from generating turnovers (which he hasn’t done well at in 2024) or rebounding (which is marginally better, but as a point guard, not ever going to be the area where he adds defensive value). This is the biggest disappointment in Dajuan’s decline. He was the Big 12 defensive Player of the Year last season. Now, he’s a liability most games.
2023 vs. 2024. Harris is over 5.50 points per game worse in 2024. He is over 9.20 points worse Per 100. He has also gone from a season where he added 3.87 Wins Above Replacement to one where he has lost 0.52 WAR.
Should Harris be benched?
Dajuan is putting up historically-bad numbers in a season which has him playing historically-high minutes. Clearly, something isn’t working with him. But if KU went to the bench, who would replace his minutes? We can’t consider Adams, McCullar, or Dickinson/Braun, players whose minutes are already maximized or aren’t suitable replacements for a guard. Let’s look at KU’s other four guards/wings in terms of player value. Remember, based on the roster, KU needs to have at least 1 of these guys on the court at all times right now. If Juan gets benched, you’ll need 2 of these 4 to play at once.
There’s a bunch of red here. For one, Nicolas Timberlake is playing worse than Harris on a per possession basis. Next, we can look at the play of Jamari McDowell and Elmarko Jackson. Neither has been much better than Harris. McDowell in particular has struggled recently after a hot start. Of these four, only Furphy has produced near bubble-level value and positive WAR.
So, let’s grant that Furphy has been better than Harris. Who else do you go with? Elmarko has had his poor moments. McDowell is very limited on offense, and his defense won’t likely become elite anytime this season. Timberlake is an even worse option. Another consideration is that, when you take Juan out, you need Kevin McCullar to run more point/generate more offense. Sure, you still have Elmarko and maybe part of the solution is giving him the keys from time-to-time. But if he’s been struggling as an off-guard with less pressure, what chance does he have being the guy to get everyone organized and the offense started?
KU’s best chances are still with Harris. He cannot, surely cannot, continue to play as poorly as he has. As a 3-year starter, Harris put up back-to-back seasons that were better than anyone else on the list above. If he could just match the 25% percentile of his play over the past two years, he’ll be much more valuable on the court than more minutes for the other four guards/wings.
Silver Lining
The good news is that Harris will not continue to play as poorly as he has. Yes, it’s been a disappointment. Here are many reasons to consider that his play will tick up.
He will get exploitable matchups as teams game plan around stopping Hunter/Kevin/K.J. He will get open layups, open 3’s, and other opportunities.
He will have a few defensive shut-down games to boost his defensive score.
As schedule gets harder, Harris will play up to his opponent. While he hasn’t done well against KU’s better opponents, he’s still better against KU’s 5 power-conference foes (-2.87 per game) than the 5 lower-tier opponents (-4.17 per game).
Harris’s score can naturally climb faster given how poor he’s been. Just a few positive games can be enough to change the narrative.
The team is currently 9-1 despite him playing poorly. Juan hasn’t been responsible for a loss, as the 14-point Marquette loss was the fault of many poor showings.
Precedence of Tyshawn Taylor in 2011. Taylor was -3.89 per game during 17 conference regular season/tournament play yet still finished the season with a solid NCAA Tournament of +3.35 per game (even his play during the VCU game wasn’t terrible). So other good players have gone through disastrous stretches but still picked things up later on.
Precedence of Remy Martin in 2022. Harris’s former teammate Martin had a disappointing regular season (-0.05 per game). But in his 9 tournament games (Big 12 + NCAA’s), Martin put up +3.66 per game in value, hitting huge shots in key moments during KU’s National Title run. Again, like Taylor, we see improvement when it matters most.
If Harris can get back to the level of play he had in 2023, his tough start to 2024 won’t matter at all.
Conclusion
Here are the key points. Dajuan’s performance through 10 games this season has been his career worst. Compared to other KU starters, Harris has been worse than any other Jayhawk in 30 years. He has seen decline in his game across all categories, but the primary problems have been with his scoring and defensive coverage. He isn’t scoring enough but is letting his man score too easily.
However, despite his poor play, Harris is a necessary component to this team. His would-be replacements are either worse or wholly unequipped to carry the load as a Big 12 point guard. Not only does he need to play, he needs to play substantial minutes for this team.
The expectation should be that Harris improves and is back to being a positive contributor by season’s end. There is precedent for good Kansas guards figuring it out by NCAA Tourney time. As KU is winning despite his poor play, a solid Dajuan Harris can make this team a true national title contender.
KenPom has Kansas as the 6th best eFG% offense and the 14th best eFG% defense in nation, counting only D-1 matchups. This spread, of 18.7%, is the best in the nation and nearly 2.5% better than the second-best of BYU. To reference, the difference from #2 BYU to the #10 team is smaller than the gap between Kansas and BYU. Which is to say, KU’s shot quality is far superior to its opponents in the brief number of games played so far.
While KU is winning the shot quality battle, it is losing the other battle, that is the battle for net extra possessions. A net extra possession means offensive rebounds minus turnovers. Teams that turn it over too much lose out on chances to shoot. Teams that hit the offensive glass add shooting chances. We want to find the net of these numbers.
Collectively, KU’s opponents have had -1 net extra possessions, meaning KU has forced 1 additional turnover than it has allowed offensive rebounds. This doesn’t sound all that bad on the defense’s behalf, until you see what KU’s offense has done. In its 6 games, KU has turned it over 41 more times than it has got an offensive board, meaning the team is -41 in this metric. If we find the difference between these numbers, we see that KU’s opponents have had 40 more chances to score than KU has this year, solely due to turnover and offensive rebounding differences. This works out to -6.7 per game. KU is effectively getting 7 fewer scoring chances than its opponent on average. If we only consider the top opponents, who to this point are Kentucky, Marquette, and Tennessee; KU is -11.3 per game. Knowing this, its amazing the Jayhawks were able to take 2 of those 3 games.
Opponent
KU NEP
Opp NEP
Diff
North Carolina Central
-6
0
-6
Manhattan
-3
-6
+3
Kentucky
-6
+7
-13
Chaminade
-8
-5
-3
Marquette
-8
0
-8
Tennessee
-10
+3
-13
TOTAL
-41
-1
-40
NEP means Net Extra Possessions
The silver lining is that KU should improve on this possession battle. Much of this can be attributed to effort and newcomers learning how they need to play. Valuing the basketball and hitting the glass is something that will be expected for those looking to earn minutes alongside the “big 4” of Harris, McCullar, Adams, and Dickinson (KU also needs more from Harris and Adams on this front). As long as KU continues to get good looks, and having Hunter is a large reason for that, they should be fine. In tonight’s tune-up against Eastern Illinois, KU needs to dominate the glass and turnover margin in order to prepare for Connecticut and other tough games that will come later in the year.
The 2023 version of the Champions Classic proved to be a classic, with a high-action, fast-paced game between the two winningest programs in college basketball history. In the end, our beloved Jayhawks prevailed, but not before giving up a 9-0 lead and being down as much as 14 in the second half.
First things, first. Here are the PPGAB +/- scores from last night, and these will be referenced below. This was quite a game, as so much happened.
Game Notes:
Hunter Dickinson (27 points, 21 rebounds) became Kansas’ first 20/20 player since Thomas Robinson (2012 season vs. North Dakota) and the first to record 20 and 20 against a power conference opponent since Nick Collison (2003 season vs. Texas).
This milestone featuring traditional stats is paralleled by a team-best +13.12 value score. This value score is Dickinson’s second +10 game of the season (NCCU) and his second team-best game (Manhattan).
Dickinson’s value score was quite bad to begin the game, as the charting indicated he was responsible for 16 of Kentucky’s first 24 points due to sagging defense and over-helps (i.e. initiating late double-teams that allow for an easy escape pass). Over the rest of the game, he was not responsible for any more points allowed. It’s estimated that Dickinson’s opponent-adjusted value score over the final 26 minutes was better than +20.
As rare as Dickinson’s 20/20 milestone was, an even rarer event occurred with Kevin McCullar recording the program’s third official triple-double in its history. (This excludes the Chamberlain era, when certain stats weren’t officially kept). McCullar was the first Jayhawk to get the triple-double by registering 10+ assists, as the prior two (Cole Aldrich, Jeff Withey) did so with points, rebounds, and blocks.
McCullar’s 12 point, 10 rebound, 10 assist night was also bolstered by a stingy defensive effort. McCullar’s defensive PPGAB +/- of +5.41 is the most valuable defensive performance of any player in any game so far this season.
McCullar’s triple-double came in the last second of the game, literally, as he grabbed his 10th board following a missed 3-point shot from Kentucky.
The Kansas/Kentucky game was a high-paced game, with 81 recorded possessions from Charting the Hawks. KenPom’s box score shows 83, and his line score shows 80. Either way, the fast tempo allowed more possessions which in turn allowed more opportunities for Dickinson and McCullar to record their milestone nights.
KU is currently the fastest-paced team in KenPom, with an adjusted tempo score of 77.2. In the Self-era, KU’s highest rank on the tempo metric is 40th (2004), and the Jayhawks have only been above 70.0 in terms of adjusted tempo 2 times in 20 seasons under Self.
Not to be overlooked, Dajuan Harris scored a career high 23 points on 5/6 shooting from 3 (with his only miss being a desperation heave following a broken play with the shot clock expiring). Harris graded out as KU’s second-best offensive player against Kentucky.
This is in stark contrast to Harris’ point output in the team’s prior 2 games. Against North Carolina Central, Harris didn’t take a shot from the field or line, and against Manhattan he scored only 2 points on 1-4 shooting. Yet when Kentucky went under screens or put help defenders on the likes of Hunter Dickinson, Harris was there to make them pay by his ability to score.
Defensively, Harris’ game was not his sharpest. He went under multiple screens leading to easy Kentucky 3-point opportunities and gave the Wildcats some run-out layups by careless live-ball turnovers. In all, he was responsible for 19 Kentucky points and graded out as the second-worst defender for Kansas in the game, slightly ahead of K.J. Adams.
Speaking of K.J. Adams, the junior continued his explosive scoring with a 16 point outing on 8-11 shooting. While not a shooter, he scores off of cuts, lobs, and put backs better than almost anyone I’ve seen. Adams also added 3 assists.
Adams’ defense was the team’s worst, and he fouled out with under 4 minutes to play from a careless loose-ball foul, gifting Kentucky 2 free throws.
Freshman Jamari McDowell was Adams’ replacement, despite not playing during the first 36:14 of the game. McDowell would play the final 3:46, during which KU would go on a 14-3 run to win.
McDowell didn’t allow a point to an explosive Kentucky offense, continuing his streak this season. In nearly 17 1/2 minutes of play, McDowell has not allowed his opponent to score.
McDowell also put the finishing touches on the win, grabbing a rebound following a 3-point miss that, had it gone in, would have tied the game for Kentucky. After being immediately fouled, McDowell calmly made both free throws to set the final margin of 5.
In the first 3 minutes and final 3 minutes of the game, KU outscored UK 20-1. The Cats were 14 points better during the middle 34.
Kentucky shot 38 3 point shots, equaling the total of FG attempts they had inside the arc. The team from Lexington was 9-18 to begin the game, allowing them to first come back from 9-0 and then take the lead. However, they would cool off considerably, hitting only 3 3-pointers in the second half (none after the 8:00 mark), and finish 12-38 for the game. This works out to 31.6%, which is worse than the 33.3% the Jayhawks shot (6-18).
Freshmen reserve guards Shepperd and Dillingham went 7-9 from 3 for the Wildcats. The rest of the team, including Antonio Reeves, went 5-29 (Reeves 3-17). When Kentucky was making its 3’s, it looked unbeatable. It was running, hustling for loose balls, and scoring in spurts. But this pace, which helped Kentucky build up a 14 point lead, allowed Kansas to come back once the shots stopped falling.
The 2024 Kansas Jayhawks were 23-11 (10-8) and earned a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. They made the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament before losing. The team’s Sports Reference page is here.
Offense
Defense
Total Adjusted PPGAB +/-
Value Seen 4 Ways
Cumulative Points Above Bubble on the Season Chart
Summary
KU’s big 3 of McCullar, Adams, and Dickinson accounted for 100.1% of the team’s WAR this season, making it the first time since at least 1993 where a Kansas team had its three best players be over 100% of total WAR.
Similarly, KU only has 3 rotation players (10%+ minutes played) with a positive value-score. This was the fewest above-bubble players on any KU team since 1993 (2017 had 4). On average, KU has 6.1 rotation players per season achieve a positive, or above-bubble, value.
The above waterfall chart does a great job showing where KU was getting its value from and where it was losing its value. This chart makes those who blame K.J. Adams or Hunter Dickinson look silly. The team’s struggles stemmed from Elmarko Jackson, Nick Timberlake, Parker Braun, and Jamari McDowell. Harris and Furphy, slightly sub-bubble, were overused due to the team’s lack of depth but still basically KU-level rotation guys.
To Harris’s credit, he did play better in higher-leverage game (positive 0.53 POCWAB).
The following players accounted for team-MVP games: K.J. Adams (11), Hunter Dickinson (9), Kevin McCullar (7), Dajuan Harris (3), Johnny Furphy (2), and Nicolas Timberlake (2).
KU’s average game-score at home (+8.34) was far superior to its average game-score in true road games (-0.59).
The injury to Kevin McCullar hurt the Jayhawks. Kansas was a +5.51 team in games where Kevin McCullar played, and -2.39 team in games where he did not (8 total games missed).
In a similar vein, KU was a +5.35 team through the Iowa State game. Kevin would miss the next game due to injury, while playing off-and-on and through pain some nights the rest of the season. In these final fourteen games, KU was a +1.23 team.
The recent 2024 player projection write-up has KU with an average game score of +8.51. This correlates to a 2-seed on average. This post will look at KU’2 2024 season from a median, worst case, and best case scenario.
Median
The median scenario sees the Jayhawks with a +8.51 average score and 2-seed and was the scenario predicted in the link above. In this scenario, KU uses a strong starting 5 and solid 6th man to find success amidst a difficult schedule. The median projection views KU’s offense being dependent on Hunter Dickinson to score and create. Among the 9 rotation players, only Dickinson and fellow transfer Nicolas Timberlake are expected to be better offensive players than defensive players. So while questions about outside shooting and guard isolation scoring will come up during the season, this will be balanced by excellent guard/wing defense from the likes of Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, and K.J. Adams.
Projecting NCAA Tournament results are difficult due to the single-elimination format, but as a 2-seed KU would have a good shot of getting out of the first weekend. The median scenario would see this team as an Elite 8/Sweet 16 team most often, with still an outside shot of making a Final Four. If this were a betting website, the over/under for tournament wins would likely be 2.5.
Worst Case
The worst case scenario implies a reasonable worst case scenario (KU could lose its starting 5 to season-ending injuries, but this is very unlikely). In this scenario, one of its key players struggles with an injury and this weakens an already depleted roster. KU’s offense could also struggle as teams force McCullar and Adams to make jump-shots while forcing the ball out of Dickinson’s hands. On defense, while it’s difficult to see KU being bad on this end, teams could put Dickinson in high-ball pick-n-rolls and take advantage of Self’s propensity to switch screens.
If KU were to struggle enough, it could lose games it was projected to win preseason and find itself slipping down into the 5-6 seed range. In this range, a First Round upset loss is more likely and a second-weekend in the NCAA’s less likely. For KU’s worst case scenario to be a comfortable NCAA Tournament team is something most teams can’t say a few weeks before the season starts.
Best Case
The best case scenario is the most fun to think about. Again, this is a reasonable projection. We aren’t expecting KU’s three true freshmen to all play as 2024 lottery picks or for Timberlake to average 25 points per game. But we do see a situation in which Hunter Dickinson’s numerous offensive skills lift the games of other around him. We do see a reasonable chance for KU’s defense to work together so well it takes care of potential problems from a few of its weaker links, and becomes the best defense in the country. Shooting improvements from McCullar and Adams can make a difference in key situations. We aren’t projecting all of these things, but there is a chance things can work out well.
In this scenario, KU earns a 1-seed for the third consecutive year. Assuming Coach Self can stay healthy and KU’s draw isn’t as tough as last season’s, a run to the Final Four and beyond is certainly within reach. The average 1-seed wins about 3.4 games per tournament (since 1985), so an over/under of 3.5 wins would be a reasonable line. Winning the National Championship can be a goal for this team.
KenPom released his preseason ratings earlier in the week. KU is ranked 2nd with a 26.31 AdjEM. This was very close to the player build-up model that I predicted (26.16). See below:
Player
Off_PG
Def_PG
Tot_PG
Per100
% Min
Dajuan Harris
+0.20
+2.30
+2.50
+4.20
85.1%
Elmarko Jackson
-0.10
+0.20
+0.10
+0.20
68.1%
Kevin McCullar
-0.25
+1.96
+1.71
+3.25
75.1%
K.J. Adams
+0.45
+0.48
+0.93
+1.90
70.0%
Hunter Dickinson
+3.80
+1.38
+5.18
+9.25
80.0%
Nicolas Timberlake
+0.62
-0.31
+0.32
+0.75
60.0%
Johnny Furphy
-0.54
-0.30
-0.84
-6.30
19.1%
Jamari McDowell
-0.62
-0.10
-0.72
-6.02
17.1%
Parker Braun
-0.52
+0.13
-0.39
-2.75
20.1%
Michael Jankovich
+0.15
-0.30
-0.15
-5.00
1.4%
Justin Cross
-0.08
-0.08
-0.16
-6.50
1.0%
Chris Carter
-0.08
-0.08
-0.16
-6.50
1.0%
Wilder Evers
-0.12
-0.13
-0.25
-10.00
0.5%
Patrick Cassidy
-0.20
-0.10
-0.30
-12.00
0.5%
Dillon Wilhite
-0.12
-0.13
-0.25
-8.00
1.0%
Zach Clemence
Charlie McCarthy
TOTAL
+2.97
+5.53
+8.51
+12.16
100.0%
Projected to Redshirt
Incoming transfer and Big 12 preseason player of the year Hunter Dickinson is the highest projected value player by far. This is due to his consistency while at Michigan as a prolific scorer and solid rebounder. Coach Self has called him the best offensive big man he’s had while at Kansas. In addition, knock on wood, Hunter has been healthy, having missed only 2 games in 3 seasons at Ann Arbor.
If there’s one question mark, it comes on the defensive end. Given the tendency among the game to play pick-n-roll ball and bring out the opponents’ 5-man, it can be a certainty that Dickinson will play plenty as the pick-n-roll defender and away from the basket. If teams can exploit him on this, it could bring down his score on the defensive end quite a bit. What Dickinson has going for him on defense is his rebounding prowess and low foul rates.
Dajuan Harris is projected to be KU’s second most-valuable player. His durability (estimated 85.1% minutes played) will be called upon now that KU is down to only 2 real ball-handlers (Elmarko Jackson) among its scholarship players. We project a slight improvement from last season’s Dejuan on both sides of the ball. He should see an increased number of 3-point attempts thanks to the departures of Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson.
Kevin McCullar’s unexpected return to Kansas will see him in an expanded roll, yet his shooting (which has consistently hovered around 30% from 3) is still a question. If he shoots as well as he has been rumored to in practice, he could make the highest leap of anyone. McCullar’s value comes in his defense; namely steals and rebounds. He defends adequately one-on-one but will give up an occasional basket.
K.J. Adams is sliding down to the 4 after playing the 5-spot primarily last season. He is even less of a shooter than McCullar, although with a true 3-point shooting center in Dickinson, having a power forward who can shoot is less of a requirement for spacing-purposes. K.J.’s strength and quickness will get him more baskets than you’d otherwise think by just watching his game. He gets putbacks, makes nice cuts to the rim, and will get the occasional alley-oop. His defense could also take a step up now that he will be guarding opposing 4 men instead of the 5’s.
The next two names are battling to be the 5th starter at the off-guard position. Nicolas Timberlake has a slightly higher prediction, but everyone agrees Elmarko Jackson has the higher ceiling. Jackson is predicted as a first-round pick by many NBA mocks, something that hasn’t been taken into consideration in these preseason numbers but still should be in the back of your mind. For Timberlake, he’s the team’s best shooter and should generate spacing on the offensive end. His defense might not be great, but wings who move their feet and don’t fall asleep on defense usually grade out well.
Jackson’s rating is purely based upon his incoming class rating. He should have a fine season, but true freshmen rarely perform at the star level. Anything around replacement level will be enough to help this team. Jackson has Harris to guide him and guys like Dickinson and Adams to play through. He should thrive being around so many veterans.
After the top 6, the projected skill level drops. This isn’t the end of the world; KU’s top 6 should get the majority of minutes. Even including minutes played during blow-out non-conference games, KU’s top 6 is projected to get 87.7% of the total court-time. But the remaining 3 scholarship players will be called upon to do enough while filling in for the starters.
Parker Braun’s Per100 numbers are expected to tick up from last season (as he plays for a better coach in a better system and is a year older), and because his minutes should tick down it will help his per game mark assuming he gets into each game. He should perform comparably to Zuby Ejiofor last season. Braun was a good pickup given the departure of Ejiofor and fellow big man Ernest Udeh. Despite gaining Dickinson, KU got worse regarding its depth on the inside. It’s unfortunate the Jayhawks couldn’t hold on to a blossoming player like Udeh, but it’s part of the process with the portal. Key pickups can mean losing a young talent that doesn’t want to wait to play.
The remaining two wings are projected to be well-below bubble-level. As freshmen, Jamari McDowell and Johnny Furphy wouldn’t normally be asked to do much aside from bring energy and play their roles while filling in for the likes of McCullar, Adams, Jackson, and Timberlake. However, Coach Self has mentioned both as potential starters still. While this is likely coach-speak, it’s good to hear that both are holding their own.
Jamari McDowell’s score is predicated on his incoming rank. We see him as a better defender but less polished scorer than Furphy. Both players are quite athletic and have decent size/length. McDowell is one of the remaining initial commits that is projected to get playing time thanks to the departure or dropped commitments from numerous other wings. Furphy is a late signee who jumped on board after it was apparent that KU needed wing depth and has been compared to Svi.
Each player’s Per 100 predictions are better than M.J. Rice and Bobby Pettiford’s seasons last year. But it is tough to see either being key cogs in the rotation. Freshmen traditionally are either role players or one-and-done types.
The Jayhawks are redshirting Zach Clemence, a move confirmed by Bill Self many times. This means only 9 scholarship players. However, there are also 7 walk-ons with a few being skilled and athletic former scholarship players at other schools. Justin Cross and Chris Carter are those who played elsewhere before being invited walk-ons. Sharpshooter Michael Jankovich is also a name to watch out for. With the limited depth, a frustrated Self might turn to Jank in a pre-conference if he needs a floor-spacer. He’s done something similar with Clay Young in 2018.
The TEAM score is projected to be +8.51, a number that gets them an estimated KenPom AdjEM score of 26.16 (or 0.15 points away from KenPom’s own preseason mark). This mark is just an average estimate, one that includes the possibility of injury or underperformance from key pieces. A TEAM score of this projection would earn a 2-seed most often, of course depending on how many wins and losses the team has in close games. KU’s defense also should grade out better than its offense, something that KenPom predicts (KP has KU as the #9 offense and #1 defense).
Recent predictions have underestimated KU’s best players (2023 Jalen Wilson, 2022 Ochai Agbaji) while overestimating the contributions of the bench. This year we made sure to keep Dickinson higher than +5.00 despite questions on his defense. Another decision we made is to have each of KU’s top 9 players be expected to play in the full allotment of games. Perhaps Furphy or McDowell will DNP a few games but it shouldn’t be too many…barring injury.
It should be an exciting season. KU is bringing in the nation’s top transfer, fan-favorite veterans, a “legacy” transfer in Parker Braun, and solid freshmen with different skillsets.
An ongoing power rating has been created to predict all high school games between 11-man teams in the state of Kansas. This rating will be updated weekly following all the games that week. Additionally, a sampling of game margin predictions will be posted each week along with the model’s cumulative accuracy for all games once games results are final. Predictions will be listed as if you were offering a bet (so -7 would mean that team is favored by 7 points). Below will be a running list of predictions/results by week.
Week 13 (State Championship Games)
6A: Gardner Edgerton (-5) 60% vs. Derby
The Trailblazers had an impressive 35-3 win against Blue Valley in last week’s state semifinals, and will face Derby for the title. Derby defeated Manhattan by 2 and Washburn Rural by 1 in its last two games, both of which were road victories. At only 5 points, this game is projected to be closer than one might expect.
5A: Mill Valley (+2) 47% vs. Kapaun Mt. Carmel
Mill Valley won on a controversial decision, essentially getting a final try that wouldn’t have happened had its QB been called down during the prior play, in its 48-47 win at Blue Valley Southwest. The Jaguars look to make it 5 titles in a row as a slight underdog to an impressive Kapaun Mt. Carmel team. Kapaun, at 11-1, has won 3 consecutive playoff games by 10 points or fewer. Expect this one to be close.
4A: St. Thomas Aquinas (-17) 89% vs. Andover Central
It’s 6-seed vs. 6-seed as Aquinas battles Andover Central. Andover Central had a huge upset win against Wamego (who was 13 point favorites) and will have to pull off a similar thing to win on Saturday. For Aquinas, their big win against Bishop Miege in Week 10 has catapulted the Saints to blow wins in the quarterfinals and semifinals. They are poised to get the title, but there is a reason the games still get played.
3A: Topeka Hayden (+9) 29% vs. Cheney
Cheney knocked off Andale for the second time this season in last week’s semifinals, coming back from a 24-0 deficit to win 28-24. Andale’s state title streak is officially over, but the program is poised to be back next year. What a run. For Cheney, capping this season off with a state title of its own is the goal now. Hayden will be tough, and was the only true threat in the East when the playoffs began (they were given a 79% chance of making state before Week 9). Now that they’ve made state, they’ll just need one great game in Hutch as underdogs to finish the dream season.
2A: Nemaha Central (0) 50% vs. Hoisington
The model has this game as a true 50/50 battle. Both teams took care of business as strong favorites, and one of them will walk away with the hardware on Saturday.
1A: Jefferson County North (+5.5) 38% vs. Conway Springs
Jefferson County North went down to Pittsburg and defeated favored St. Mary’s-Colgan in last week’s semis, whereas Conway Springs took care of business as favorites. This game is within a touchdown spread, with Conway being the favorite.
Weeks 5-12 Model Accuracy:
Winner predicted in 538/622games (86.5%). Average point difference moe: 12.98 points.
Winning percentage by favorite point spread:
0-5 64.1%
5-10 68.3%
10-15 79.0%
15-20 91.7%
20-25 90.6%
25-30 95.7%
30-125 100.0%
Week 12 (Playoff Semifinals)
6A-East: (6) Blue Valley @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-15) 85%
6A-West (3) Derby @ (1) Washburn Rural (+8.5) 30%
State Odds: Gardner Edgerton 52.4%, Derby 35.2%, Washburn Rural 8.5%, Blue Valley 3.9%
5A-East: (4) Mill Valley @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-5) 61%
State Odds: Hoisington 51.4%, Nemaha Central 38.9%, Sabetha 7.8%, Norton 1.9%
1A-East: Jefferson County North @ St. Mary’s-Colgan (-3) 55%
1A-West: Medicine Lodge @ Conway Springs (-10.5) 75%
State Odds: Conway Springs 44.5%, St. Mary’s-Colgan 28.1%, Jefferson County North 18.6%, Medicine Lodge 8.8%
Week 11 (Playoff Quarterfinals)
6A:
(5) Blue Valley Northwest @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-19.5) 91%
(6) Blue Valley @ (2) Olathe North (-8) 69%
(5) Wichita East @ (1) Washburn Rural (+15.5) 14%
(3) Derby @ (2) Manhattan (0) 50%
Current State odds: Gardner Edgerton 34.7%, Wichita East 33.4%, Derby 13.4%, Manhattan 13.0%, Olathe North 3.9%, Washburn Rural 1.0%, Blue Valley 0.4%, Blue Valley Northwest 0.3%
5A:
(9) Topeka Seaman @ (4) Mill Valley (-9) 72%
(6) Shawnee Heights @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-16) 87%
(4) Maize South @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-4.5) 59%
(11) Maize @ (2) Goddard Eisenhower (-14) 83%
Current State odds: Blue Valley Southwest 32.4%, Kapaun Mt. Carmel 25.0%, Mill Valley 14.9%, Goddard Eisenhower 12.6%, Maize South 12.6%, Topeka Seaman 1.5%, Shawnee Heights 0.8%, Maize 0.2%
4A:
(5) Tonganoxie @ (1) Atchison (+7) 33%
(7) Basehor-Linwood @ (6) St. Thomas Aquinas (-10.5) 76%
(4) Wellington @ (1) Wamego (-26) 94%
(7) McPherson @ (6) Andover Central (-7) 67%
Current State odds: Wamego 39.5%, St. Thomas Aquinas 25.7%, Tonganoxie 21.6%, Atchison 5.4%, Andover Central 4.3%, Basehor-Linwood 2.8%, McPherson 0.6%, Wellington 0.08%
3A:
Holton @ Frontenac (+8) 37%
Topeka Hayden @ Parsons (+18.5) 92%
Cheney @ Clay Center (-3.5) 60%
Wichita Collegiate @ Andale (-15.5) 85%
Current State odds: Andale 51.9%, Clay Center 18.9%, Topeka Hayden 18.6%, Cheney 7.5%, Wichita Collegiate 3.0%, Holton 0.1%, Parsons 0.08%, Frontenac 0.01%
2A:
Sabetha @ Humboldt (+12) 21%
Osage City @ Nemaha Central (-26.5) 94%
Southeast of Saline @ Hoisington (+9) 29%
Ellsworth @ Norton (+6.5) 34%
Current State odds: Southeast of Saline 48.1%, Nemaha Central 31.3%, Hoisington 12.4%, Sabetha 3.7%, Ellsworth 3.7%, Norton 0.7%, Humboldt 0.1%, Osage City 0.06%
1A:
St. Mary’s-Colgan @ St. Marys (+7.5) 32%
Olpe @ Jefferson County North (-14.5) 84%
Conway Springs @ Marion (+9.5) 28%
Medicine Lodge @ Valley Heights (-2) 53%
Current State odds: Conway Springs 35.1%, St. Mary’s-Colgan 27.6%, Jefferson County North 13.0%, Valley Heights 6.7%, St. Marys 6.7%, Marion 6.2%, Medicine Lodge 4.5%, Olpe 0.2%
Week 10 (Playoffs Round of 16)
Week 10 is when the Playoffs really begin. There will be a total of 48 games played between the six classes to determine which teams will be quarterfinalists this year. With Week 9’s games being decided by an average of 33 points, Week 10’s matchups will be far more competitive. The average expected margin of victory is 14.3 points, with 29/48 matchups expected to be within 14 points.
(5) Blue Valley Northwest @ (4) Olathe South (+14) 17%
(6) Blue Valley @ (3) Olathe East (0) 50%
(7) Blue Valley West @ (2) Olathe North (-7) 67%
(8) Junction City @ (1) Washburn Rural (-8.5) 70%
(5) Wichita East @ (4) Wichita Northwest (+1) 48%
(6) Lawrence @ (3) Derby (-25.5) 94%
(7) Lawrence Free State @ (2) Manhattan (-24) 93%
The West is completely up for grabs, with undefeated Washburn Rural sitting as a vulnerable team from here on out. If the Junior Blues can get past Junction City, whichever Wichita City League school wins between East and Northwest will be a tough matchup. In the East, the Sunflower League did not have a great first round of the playoffs (compared to the rest of the state), meaning the chances for Gardner and Olathe North took a hit. Still, one of these two schools should get through and make State.
5A:
(9) Topeka Seaman @ (1) De Soto (-6.5) 66%
(5) Spring Hill @ (4) Mill Valley (+6.5) 34%
(6) Shawnee Heights @ (3) Topeka Highland Park (+42.5) 0%
(10) Lansing @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-12) 80%
(9) Great Bend @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-15) 85%
(5) Hutchinson @ (4) Maize South (-3.5) 56%
(11) Maize @ (3) Liberal (-9.5) 72%
(7) Hays @ (2) Goddard Eisenhower (-3.5) 56%
In the East, Shawnee Heights is the benefactor of a good draw this year, and will play its very over-seeded Highland Park rivals in a guarantee win game. The other games should be close, with 4-time defending 5A champ Mill Valley actually home underdogs according to the model. Should Mill Valley prevail, it could face district rival De Soto. In the West, the Hutch/Maize South is a rematch of a 28-23 Hutch comeback victory. Can the Salthawks do it again? The other games should be competitive as well, watch out for a potential Hays upset of Eisenhower.
4A:
(8) Eudora @ (1) Atchison (+1) 48%
(5) Tonganoxie @ (4) Chanute (+22.5) 8%
(6) St. Thomas Aquinas @ (3) Bishop Miege (-8.5) 71%
(7) Basehor-Linwood @ (2) Louisburg (-10) 74%
(9) Rose Hill @ (1) Wamego (-29.5) 96%
(5) Field Kindley @ (4) Wellington (+4.5) 41%
(6) Andover Central @ (3) Abilene (-7) 67%
(7) McPherson @ (2) Buhler (-10.5) 75%
In the East, the JoCo Catholic School battle continues with Aquinas facing Miege in a rematch from Week 6. Can Randy Dreiling’s Saints pull the upset and end Miege’s reign on 4A? 4A is very competitive in the East this year, with Louisburg and Tonganoxie being very strong potential State participants. In the West, Mac travels to Buhler as an underdog despite winning against the Crusaders a few weeks back. Wamego looks like the team to beat in the West, but it likely won’t fall anytime soon.
3A:
Burlington @ Frontenac (-17.5) 89%
Holton @ Wellsville (-10) 74%
Parsons @ Prairie View (+12.5) 20%
Santa Fe Trail @ Topeka Hayden (-38) 98%
Hesston @ Clay Center (-39) 100%
Holcomb @ Cheney (-17) 89%
Rock Creek @ Wichita Collegiate (-9.5) 73%
Andale @ Scott Community (+19.5) 9%
3A’s games don’t appear to be as competitive despite each home team winning during Week 9’s opening playoff rounds. For East teams, Topeka Hayden is the clear favorite. Andale is looking very strong after dropping a regular season tilt to Cheney. They are nearly 20-point road favorites. If anyone is to knock off Andale this year, it will likely be the winner of Clay Center/Cheney. Both these teams should have a straightforward path to the quarterfinals where they’d face off against each other.
2A:
Humboldt @ Riverton (+8.5) 30%
Sabetha @ Silver Lake (-1) 52%
Council Grove @ Osage City (-11.5) 79%
Riley County @ Nemaha Central (-20.5) 91%
Kingman @ Southeast of Saline (-21.5) 92%
Beloit @ Hoisington (-20.5) 91%
Ellsworth @ Garden Plain (+1) 48%
Thomas More Prep-Marian @ Norton (-12.5) 19.1%
Both Nemaha Central (in the East) and Southeast of Saline (in the West) have a 2 in 3 chance of making State. The brackets are aligning for these two schools to face off, but watch out for potential spoilers in Silver Lake (East) or Hoisington (West).
1A:
Jayhawk Linn @ St. Mary’s-Colgan (-27) 95%
Jackson Heights @ St. Marys (-19) 90%
Central Heights @ Olpe (-26) 94%
Jefferson County North @ Centralia (+3.5) 44%
Marion @ Smith Center (-8.5) 70%
Sterling @ Conway Springs (-12) 80%
Valley Heights @ Sedgwick (+6.5) 34%
Hutchinson Trinity @ Medicine Lodge (-8) 69%
The two Saint Mary’ses are bound to meet. 1A should see some competitive matchups in the weeks to come, but this week watch out for Marion and Smith Center.
Week 9 (Playoffs Round of 32)
The playoffs are here! There will be 96 playoff games across all 6 classifications beginning this Thursday. These write-ups will be a bit different as the full playoff landscape can be seen below. But first, here are a few spreads for the Round of 32:
(6A) Blue Valley North @ Gardner Edgerton (-41)
(6A) Shawnee Mission West @ Olathe North (-59)
(6A) Wichita North @ Washburn Rural (-88)
(6A) Garden City @ Lawrence Free State (-11)
(5A) Kansas City Turner @ De Soto (-73.5)
(5A) Leavenworth @ Spring Hill (-32)
(5A) Wichita West @ Hutchinson (-36.5)
(5A) Maize @ Goddard (-13.5)
(4A) Ottawa @ Tonganoxie (-20)
(4A) St. James Academy @ Bishop Miege (-28.5)
6A Playoffs:
Only one school managed to run the table at 8-0 in the regular season among 6A (and 5A) teams, namely Washburn Rural. Rural is the #1 seed in the West bracket, but has only the fifth best odds to win the West due to how balanced and strong 6A is. Gardner Edgerton in the East has the best odds to win state at 37.1%.
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Washburn Rural
1
0.848
0.325
0.118
0.057
16
Wichita North
8
Junction City
0.852
0.145
0.014
0.001
4
Wichita Northwest
1
0.525
0.36
0.179
0.107
13
Campus
5
Wichita East
1
0.475
0.301
0.141
0.08
12
Wichita South
6
Lawrence
0.914
0.071
0.006
11
Dodge City
0.086
3
Derby
1
0.929
0.434
0.228
0.13
14
Topeka
7
Lawrence Free State
0.76
0.062
0.008
0.001
10
Garden City
0.24
0.008
2
Manhattan
1
0.93
0.551
0.331
0.209
15
Wichita Southeast
1
Gardner Edgerton
1
1
0.913
0.751
0.371
16
Blue Valley North
8
Shawnee Mission Northwest
0.527
9
Shawnee Mission East
0.473
4
Olathe South
0.824
0.156
0.005
13
Shawnee Mission South
0.176
0.012
5
Blue Valley Northwest
0.965
0.826
0.081
0.033
0.003
12
Olathe Northwest
0.035
0.006
6
Blue Valley
0.947
0.458
0.177
0.025
0.003
11
Olathe West
0.053
0.002
3
Olathe East
1
0.539
0.219
0.034
0.004
14
Kansas City Wyandotte
7
Blue Valley West
0.936
0.251
0.111
0.014
0.001
10
Shawnee Mission North
0.064
0.002
2
Olathe North
1
0.748
0.493
0.142
0.034
15
Shawnee Mission West
An additional element practically unique to the 6A Tournament is the fact no Sunflower League team has played against a team outside the league so far. The following first round 6A games are between a Sunflower League team and non-SL team:
Dodge City @ Lawrence
Garden City @ Lawrence Free State
Blue Valley North @ Gardner Edgerton
Olathe Northwest @ Blue Valley Northwest
Olathe West @ Blue Valley
Kansas City Wyandotte @ Olathe East
Shawnee Mission North @ Blue Valley West
We have less confidence in predicting these games. After Week 9, these 7 games alongside one in 5A will help make the rankings stronger for the remaining weeks.
5A Playoffs
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
1
0.883
0.465
0.332
0.185
16
Salina South
8
Salina Central
0.443
0.042
0.005
0.001
4
Maize South
0.967
0.578
0.32
0.232
0.132
13
Bishop Carroll
0.033
0.002
5
Hutchinson
0.977
0.42
0.199
0.121
0.057
12
Wichita West
0.023
6
Goddard
0.822
0.625
0.327
0.106
0.038
11
Maize
0.178
0.086
0.017
0.002
3
Liberal
0.854
0.276
0.075
0.009
0.001
14
Newton
0.146
0.014
0.001
7
Hays
0.508
0.13
0.051
0.006
0.001
10
Valley Center
0.492
0.118
0.045
0.005
2
Goddard Eisenhower
0.963
0.749
0.484
0.182
0.073
15
Andover
0.037
0.003
1
De Soto
1
0.74
0.503
0.29
0.164
16
Kansas City Turner
8
Kansas City Washington
9
Topeka Seaman
1
0.26
0.119
0.039
0.013
4
Mill Valley
1
0.51
0.191
0.073
0.029
13
Topeka West
5
Spring Hill
0.965
0.489
0.188
0.074
0.029
12
Leavenworth
0.035
0.001
6
Shawnee Heights
1
1
0.27
0.096
0.031
11
Kansas City Sumner
3
Topeka Highland Park
1
14
Kansas City Harmon
7
Pittsburg
0.1
0.003
10
Lansing
0.9
0.14
0.062
0.017
0.004
2
Blue Valley Southwest
1
0.856
0.668
0.411
0.241
15
Emporia
Blue Valley Southwest has a good draw and is expected to win state 24.1% of the time. 6-seed Shawnee Heights has a projected 100% chance of winning its first two games as it has Kansas City schools and Highland Park in its quadrant.
4A Playoffs
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Wamego
1
0.985
0.944
0.796
0.36
16
El Dorado
8
Winfield
0.413
4
Wellington
0.635
0.222
0.007
13
Circle
0.365
0.078
5
Field Kindley
0.905
0.673
0.043
0.009
12
Augusta
0.095
0.028
6
Andover Central
0.968
0.438
0.266
0.05
0.007
11
Independence
0.032
0.001
3
Abilene
0.968
0.559
0.396
0.099
0.019
14
Arkansas City
0.032
0.002
7
McPherson
0.862
0.189
0.024
0.002
10
Mulvane
0.138
0.01
2
Buhler
0.973
0.798
0.313
0.043
0.005
15
Ulysses
0.027
0.003
1
Atchison
1
0.545
0.196
0.044
0.016
16
Bonner Springs
8
Eudora
0.905
0.446
0.156
0.033
0.012
9
Kansas City Piper
0.096
0.009
4
Chanute
1
0.117
0.024
0.002
13
Kansas City Schlagle
5
Tonganoxie
0.911
0.837
0.612
0.267
0.155
12
Ottawa
0.089
0.047
0.012
6
St. Thomas Aquinas
0.969
0.263
0.13
0.067
0.034
11
Fort Scott
0.031
3
Bishop Miege
0.951
0.73
0.528
0.396
0.287
14
St. James Academy
0.049
0.006
7
Basehor-Linwood
0.7
0.159
0.025
0.008
0.002
10
Paola
0.3
0.027
0.002
2
Louisburg
1
0.814
0.314
0.182
0.103
15
Labette County
Wamego is now the favorite in 4A with a 36.0% chance to win state given its strength and draw. The three Catholic JoCo schools, who are in the same (strong) league and have played each other, all share the same quadrant meaning only one of Miege/Aquinas/St. James can make it to the quarters. Look out for Tonganoxie and Louisburg in the East as well.
3A Playoffs:
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Clay Center
1
1
0.734
0.452
0.383
4
Clearwater
2
Hesston
0.453
1
Cheney
1
0.861
0.256
0.106
0.07
4
Colby
2
Holcomb
0.605
0.102
0.008
0.001
3
Pratt
0.395
0.037
0.002
1
Wichita Collegiate
0.965
0.685
0.169
0.038
0.021
4
Concordia
0.035
0.004
2
Rock Creek
0.933
0.308
0.039
0.004
0.002
3
Chapman
0.067
0.003
1
Scott Community
1
0.26
0.161
0.047
0.029
4
Smoky Valley
2
Andale
0.916
0.718
0.622
0.35
0.298
3
Hugoton
0.084
0.022
0.009
0.001
1
Frontenac
0.902
0.816
0.172
0.013
4
Girard
0.098
0.052
0.002
2
Burlington
0.894
0.128
0.006
3
Columbus
0.106
0.004
1
Wellsville
0.964
0.786
0.69
0.159
0.012
4
Perry-Lecompton
0.036
0.005
2
Holton
0.905
0.204
0.128
0.013
3
Bishop Ward
0.095
0.005
0.001
1
Prairie View
0.961
0.231
0.009
0.002
4
Baxter Springs
0.039
2
Parsons
0.899
0.73
0.07
0.028
3
Iola
0.101
0.039
1
Topeka Hayden
1
0.982
0.917
0.786
0.184
4
Baldwin
2
Santa Fe Trail
0.787
0.018
0.004
3
Royal Valley
0.213
Powerhouse and 4-time defending champion Andale has the second-best odds this year, with Clay Center being most likely to win at Gowans Stadium among 3A teams. The West is far stronger than the East. Only Topeka Hayden and Wellsville have a greater than 0.05% chance.
2A Playoffs:
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Southeast of Saline
1
0.951
0.753
0.703
0.586
4
Chaparral
2
Kingman
0.824
0.049
0.011
0.005
0.001
1
Hoisington
0.948
0.897
0.234
0.191
0.114
4
Phillipsburg
0.052
0.027
2
Beloit
0.821
0.074
0.003
3
Lakin
0.179
0.002
1
Garden Plain
0.696
0.363
0.215
0.023
0.007
4
Halstead
0.304
0.097
0.039
0.002
2
Ellsworth
0.903
0.525
0.321
0.038
0.013
3
Haven
0.097
0.016
0.003
1
Norton
0.955
0.794
0.39
0.038
0.011
4
Cimarron
0.045
0.007
2
Larned
0.51
0.105
0.017
3
Thomas More Prep-Marian
0.49
0.095
0.014
1
Riverton
0.968
0.213
0.021
0.001
4
West Franklin
0.032
2
Humboldt
1
0.787
0.246
0.032
0.002
3
Cherryvale
1
Silver Lake
0.803
0.368
0.263
0.051
0.005
4
Minneapolis
0.197
0.031
0.013
0.001
2
Sabetha
1
0.601
0.456
0.111
0.014
3
Atchison County
1
Osage City
1
0.814
0.059
0.015
4
Neodesha
2
Caney Valley
0.488
0.088
3
Council Grove
0.512
0.098
1
Nemaha Central
1
0.91
0.873
0.758
0.243
4
Pleasant Ridge
2
Rossville
0.682
0.07
0.054
0.027
0.002
3
Riley County
0.318
0.02
0.012
0.004
Southeast of Saline is the only team with a +50% chance of winning state among all classes. With an 8-0 record and a win against the top team in 3A (Clay Center), the Spartans are a tough team to beat.
1A Playoffs:
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Smith Center
1
0.905
0.545
0.415
0.265
4
Belle Plaine
2
Marion
0.527
0.052
0.01
0.004
1
Conway Springs
1
0.857
0.418
0.285
0.161
4
Stanton County
2
Ellis
0.162
0.007
3
Sterling
0.838
0.136
0.02
0.007
0.002
1
Sedgwick
0.888
0.181
0.069
0.008
0.001
4
Salina Sacred Heart
0.112
0.005
2
Valley Heights
1
0.814
0.533
0.193
0.09
3
Remington
1
Plainville
0.593
0.198
0.055
0.007
0.001
4
Hutchinson Trinity
0.408
0.088
0.016
0.001
2
Medicine Lodge
1
0.714
0.327
0.078
0.027
3
Oakley
1
St. Mary’s-Colgan
1
0.945
0.592
0.389
0.204
4
Pleasanton
2
Jayhawk Linn
1
0.055
0.006
3
Uniontown
1
St. Marys
1
0.903
0.391
0.209
0.086
4
Riverside
2
Jackson Heights
0.928
0.097
0.01
0.002
3
Mission Valley
0.072
1
Olpe
1
0.952
0.216
0.037
0.006
4
Northeast
2
Erie
0.146
3
Central Heights
0.854
0.048
1
Centralia
1
0.398
0.282
0.105
0.035
4
Oskaloosa
2
Jefferson County North
0.969
0.6
0.501
0.258
0.12
3
Troy
0.031
0.002
1A should be competitive, with 6 schools having an 8.5% chance of greater of winning state.
Week 8
Hutchinson @ Andover (+36) (Hut by 26)
Basehor-Linwood @ De Soto (-8) (DS by 27)
Olathe South @ Gardner Edgerton (-33) (GE by 32)
Goddard Eisenhower @ Goddard (+5.5) (G by 8)
St. James Academy @ Blue Valley North (+11) (SJA by 19)
Manhattan @ Wichita Northwest (0) (Man by 4)
Olathe North @ Lawrence Free State (+6) (ON by 14)
Spring Hill @ Louisburg (-3) (Louis by 14)
Blue Valley West @ Blue Valley (+7) (BV by 4)
St. Thomas Aquinas @ Blue Valley Southwest (+6) (BV SW by 21)
Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ Wichita Heights (+40.5) (KMC by 12)
Week 7’s results changed the state title landscape considerably across all classes. There were numerous upsets, including Lawrence defeating Lawrence Free State in a rivalry game that was somehow missed in last week’s posted predictions. Olathe East beating Gardner Edgerton by 2 touchdowns was shocking as well. The most important game was Kapaun Mt. Carmel’s strong win versus St. James Academy. This result helped teams outside of the Johnson County area and tilted the balance of power toward the “west” (west here includes teams like Manhattan and Washburn Rural).
State playoff odds going into Week 8. The following win percentages are calculated given the current bracket. With the official brackets being set after the conclusion of the regular season next week, note these percentages can change due to seeding alone. Updated team strengths following Week 8 game results will also effect which teams have the best chances to win state.
4A:
Team
Win %
Bishop Miege
48.6%
Wamego
12.8%
Tonganoxie
12.7%
St. Thomas Aquinas
10.1%
Abilene
6.4%
Louisburg
4.5%
Atchison
2.3%
Buhler
1.4%
Andover Central
0.7%
Basehor-Linwood
0.2%
Eudora
0.2%
Despite winning, Miege’s perceived chances took a hit due to its opponents having poor showings. The current projections still have the Stags as the best team in 4A, but certainly not as invincible as they once seemed.
5A:
Team
Win %
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
31.1%
Blue Valley Southwest
20.7%
Maize South
14.2%
De Soto
8.3%
Hutchinson
8.0%
Goddard Eisenhower
7.3%
Spring Hill
4.5%
Mill Valley
2.9%
Goddard
1.9%
Topeka Seaman
0.5%
Liberal
0.2%
Valley Center
0.2%
Shawnee Heights
0.1%
Kapaun has emerged as Kansas’ best 5A team, but it will still face competition in the West and a tough opponent in the state title game should it get that far. Mill Valley, the reigning 5A champ, is still the wildcard in this class. If the Sunflower League’s strength is undervalued, its state championship odds could be higher than what is shown.
6A:
Team
Win %
Gardner Edgerton
37.7%
Wichita Northwest
18.5%
Derby
13.5%
Manhattan
10.9%
Washburn Rural
8.1%
Wichita East
6.2%
Olathe North
2.5%
Blue Valley Northwest
1.1%
Olathe East
0.7%
Blue Valley
0.5%
Blue Valley West
0.2%
Lawrence Free State
0.1%
Despite being the state’s highest-rated team, Manhattan only has a 10.9% chance of winning state given the current bracket configuration. This is due to it having to face a strong Wichita East team in the Round of 16 and then possible matchup against Wichita Northwest. From there, a matchup against either Derby or Washburn Rural (who beat the Indians already) would have to be won just to get to state. As of today, Manhattan would be only a 1-point favorite against Gardner Edgerton, the best team on the east side of the bracket.
Gardner Edgerton’s loss to Olathe East last week was the second-biggest surprise of the season (behind a 1A matchup of Oskaloosa and McLouth). But the Trailblazers are still the likely #1 seed in the East and should get a good draw.
Week 7
Andale @ Cheney (+13.5) (Che by 6)
Maize South @ Derby (0) (Der by 8)
Olathe East @ Gardner Edgerton (-25.5) (OE by 14)
Maize @ Hutchinson (-19) (Hut by 19)
Blue Valley Southwest @ Kansas City Wyandotte (+106) (BV SW by 50)
Manhattan @ Lansing (+19.5) (Man by 42)
Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ St. James Academy (-1.5) (KMC by 21)
Hays @ Liberal (-6.5) (Hay by 7)
Mill Valley @ Olathe North (-1) (ON by 14)
Blue Valley North @ Blue Valley Northwest (-23.5) (BV NW by 21)
Bishop Miege @ Blue Valley West (+23) (BM by 8)
St. Thomas Aquinas @ Blue Valley (+11.5) (STA by 3)
Many of Week 7’s games featuring top teams should be competitive. In the East, the Mill Valley @ Olathe North game will have big implications on sorting out the second best team in the Sunflower League. This game is paralleled by Maize South @ Derby in the greater Wichita area. It’s great to see potentially-close matchups this late in the season.
Other games of note include the cross-state battle with Kapaun Mt. Carmel traveling to JoCo to take on St. James Academy. Despite SJA’s 1-5 record, they are the slight favorite to one of the best team’s in 5A. Lastly, Blue Valley Southwest is favored by over 100 against KC Wyandotte. One doubts the Wolves run up the score this high, but the fact these programs are estimated to be this different is staggering.
State Playoff Odds
Using the current rankings and current seedings, odds were calculated for who the state champion is likely to be for 6A, 5A, and 4A. These will be updated each week for the rest of the season. Following Week 6/before Week 7, here they are:
6A:
Team
Win %
Gardner Edgerton
78.2%
Lawrence Free State
4.3%
Blue Valley Northwest
3.6%
Wichita Northwest
3.2%
Blue Valley
2.7%
Olathe North
2.5%
Blue Valley West
1.3%
Wichita East
1.1%
Washburn Rural
0.8%
Manhattan
0.7%
Olathe East
0.6%
Lawrence
0.5%
Derby
0.4%
5A
Team
Win %
Blue Valley Southwest
66.5%
Mill Valley
17.4%
Maize South
6.2%
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
4.1%
De Soto
1.9%
Hutchinson
1.3%
Spring Hill
1.2%
Goddard Eisenhower
1.0%
Goddard
0.2%
Topeka Seaman
0.1%
4A
Team
Win %
Bishop Miege
66.9%
St. Thomas Aquinas
31.1%
Wamego
1.0%
Tonganoxie
0.5%
St. James Academy
0.2%
Eudora
0.1%
Abilene
0.1%
The best teams in the state at the top classes have emerged. Gardner nearly has a 4 in 5 chance of winning state, with Blue Valley SW and Miege being around 2 in 3. These numbers can tighten before we get to the later rounds of the playoffs, but it is unlikely that any of these teams fails to be the clear favorite going into, say, week 10. Still, there is only a 34.8% chance that all 3 of these teams win state, so don’t write off an upset completely.
In total, Johnson County could very easily sweep state in the top classes. In fact, the odds say JoCo teams will win all three state titles 78% of the time.
The thing to watch in the final two weeks is seeding, which won’t change the title odds much, but can have a big effect on how far certain teams go in the playoffs. Due to heavily unbalanced schedules, brackets on either side (East or West) can themselves have an easier portion or harder portion depending on how teams finish. For instance, in 5A East, De Soto is currently the #1 seed, opposite both Mill Valley and Blue Valley SW. In order for De Soto to get to state, the best way is to avoid having to beat both of these teams. If the Wildcats can hold on to the #1 seed, they’ll likely have a better draw. This is somewhat different from 4A, where 1-5 St. James Academy is currently the #14 seed in the East. SJA will want to avoid Bishop Miege (currently #3 in East), which is the best team of course. Should SJA jump one spot to #13, they’d be a strong favorite to get to the state semis (assuming Aquinas stays on the other side).
Week 6
Blue Valley West @ St. James Academy (+8.5) (BV W by 3)
Blue Valley Northwest @ Blue Valley Southwest (-1.5) (BV SW by 20)
Bishop Miege @ St. Thomas Aquinas (+4.5) (BM by 12)
Shawnee Mission South @ Mill Valley (-31) (MV by 35)
Gardner Edgerton @ Lawrence (+32.5) (GE by 29)
Bishop Carroll @ Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-43) (KMC by 29)
Goddard @ Maize South (-9) (MS by 21)
Wichita Collegiate @ Andale (-11.5) (And by 21)
Hutchinson @ Campus (+44) (Hut by 28)
Derby @ Maize (+29.5) (Der by 14)
Total games: 107. Avg. Est. Margin: 25.0. (Avg. Margin = 30.3)
Week 6’s offerings have a few “holy wars” featuring Catholic schools against each other. Carroll is down this year and is expected to get blown out to Kapuan. The Miege/Aquinas rivalry game will help determine who the best team in the state is. The cross-class BV Northwest/BV Southwest matchup should also be a close one between 6A and 5A state contenders respectively.
Andale, which hasn’t lost in 4 years, is “only” 11.5 point favorites to Collegiate. Goddard and Maize South share the same record at the moment…the winner goes to 5-1 and the loser to 4-2. This game will have a huge impact on seeding for the west side of the 5A state tournament.
Margins matter. The seeding for each bracket is based on W/L record followed by head-to-head followed by margin. Because head-to-head isn’t often a factor (particularly when there are 3+ teams with same record), beating your opponents by a lot can be the difference between a few places on the seed-line.
Week 5
Olathe North @ Gardner Edgerton (-19.5) (GE by 7)
Blue Valley @ Bishop Miege (-30) (BM by 7)
Blue Valley Northwest @ Blue Valley West (0) (BV NW by 14)
Blue Valley Southwest @ Blue Valley North (+24) (BV WS by 34)
Southeast of Saline @ Clay Center (0) (SE o S by 5)
Mill Valley @ Olathe South (+8) (MV by 56)
Washburn Rural @ Junction City (+21.5) (WR by 21)
Shawnee Mission North @ Lawrence (-22) (Law by 15)
Lawrence Free State @ Shawnee Mission South (+31.5) (LFS by 25)
Emporia @ Manhattan (+68) (Man by 44)
Salina South @ Hutchinson (-54.5) (Hut by 43)
Nickerson @ Andale (-97) (And by 78)
Campus @ Derby (-50) (Der by 48)
Wichita Northwest @ Topeka (+48.5) (W NW by 63)
Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ Wichita Southeast (+67.5) (KMC by 58)
Goddard Eisenhower @ Andover (+38) (G E by 34)
Maize South @ Maize (+12) (MS by 47)
Total games: 107. Avg. Est. Margin: 27.5. (Avg. Margin = 30.1)
These games should cover the best teams in the state and the top candidates to win 6A or 5A. The top billing is Gardner Edgerton, fresh off its blow out win against Mill Valley, hosting a solid Olathe North team. The Maize/Maize South rivalry game will also help sort out the pecking order in 5A on the west side of the bracket. Watch out for the Clay Center/Southeast of Saline 3A/2A matchup. Additionally, Andale will kill Nickerson but can they get to 97? Last year’s score was 108-0. There are a multitude of mismatches in high school football. The average expected score differential for all games this Friday is expected to be nearly four touchdowns.
Another goal is to get playoff predictions in after week 6. By this point, it is possible to simulate the rest of the regular season, create a bracket using the bracketing rules, and then simulate tournaments for each class (at the very least, 6A and 5A). My guess is that there are only about 5 teams per class that have a realistic shot at winning state.
Below is the average, season-ending rating for each 11-man KSHSAA program over the past 11 years1. This rating looks purely at a team’s success in terms of wins and losses, strength of opponent, and margin of victory. It does not directly measure class size or a team’s success in playoffs, although these two factors will correlate strongly with a program’s rating. This becomes a cumulative ranking over this period.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Derby
56.38
2
Bishop Miege
50.41
3
St. Thomas Aquinas
49.50
4
Wichita Northwest
49.23
5
Mill Valley
48.65
6
Andale
48.22
7
Manhattan
42.43
8
Blue Valley
42.36
9
Lawrence Free State
37.00
10
Olathe North
36.74
11
Maize
36.06
12
Gardner Edgerton
35.64
13
Bishop Carroll
34.99
14
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
34.43
15
St. James Academy
33.94
16
Blue Valley North
33.55
17
Lawrence
33.50
18
Junction City
31.54
19
Blue Valley Northwest
30.48
20
Blue Valley West
29.38
21
De Soto
28.21
22
Goddard
28.13
23
Hutchinson
28.04
24
Shawnee Mission East
27.89
25
Maize South
27.36
26
Washburn Rural
25.68
27
Olathe West
25.61
28
Hays
24.73
29
Olathe East
24.23
30
Andover Central
24.14
31
McPherson
24.11
32
Shawnee Mission Northwest
24.07
33
Great Bend
23.99
34
Topeka Hayden
23.86
35
Basehor-Linwood
23.80
36
Olathe South
23.40
37
Wichita Collegiate
23.37
38
Buhler
22.92
39
Goddard Eisenhower
21.63
40
Wichita East
21.39
41
Blue Valley Southwest
20.94
42
Southeast of Saline
20.90
43
Salina Central
20.75
44
Andover
20.64
45
Garden City
20.43
46
Olathe Northwest
20.23
47
Scott Community
20.20
48
Nemaha Central
20.18
49
Dodge City
20.18
50
Hoisington
19.38
51
Cheney
19.20
52
Wichita Heights
19.01
53
Pittsburg
19.00
54
Louisburg
18.85
55
Topeka Seaman
18.18
56
Paola
17.41
57
Silver Lake
17.35
58
Pratt
16.83
59
Rossville
16.55
60
Tonganoxie
16.47
61
Holcomb
16.45
62
Valley Center
16.37
63
Sabetha
16.35
64
Topeka
15.86
65
Spring Hill
15.73
66
Holton
15.11
67
Wamego
14.51
68
Smith Center
12.22
69
Eudora
12.05
70
Hesston
11.93
71
Kansas City Piper
11.59
72
Rock Creek
10.04
73
Mulvane
9.77
74
Beloit
9.49
75
Garden Plain
9.08
76
Phillipsburg
9.08
77
Clay Center
8.70
78
Riley County
8.23
79
Shawnee Heights
8.21
80
Perry-Lecompton
7.96
81
Halstead
7.86
82
Frontenac
7.55
83
Newton
7.46
84
Marysville
7.29
85
Campus
7.13
86
Wichita West
7.11
87
Lansing
6.92
88
Liberal
6.86
89
Salina South
6.76
90
Shawnee Mission North
6.42
91
Wellington
6.19
92
Conway Springs
5.78
93
Shawnee Mission South
5.17
94
Leavenworth
5.07
95
Wellsville
4.97
96
Shawnee Mission West
4.61
97
Emporia
4.15
98
Centralia
3.92
99
Arkansas City
3.54
100
Hugoton
3.54
101
Chanute
3.35
102
Wichita South
2.71
103
Augusta
2.56
104
Kingman
1.64
105
Colby
1.60
106
Norton
1.39
107
Atchison
1.29
108
Clearwater
0.98
109
St. Mary’s-Colgan
0.95
110
Olpe
0.12
111
Concordia
-0.79
112
Fort Scott
-0.91
113
Rose Hill
-1.27
114
Ottawa
-1.52
115
Plainville
-1.59
116
Winfield
-2.72
117
Prairie View
-2.92
118
Osage City
-3.29
119
Labette County
-3.65
120
Bonner Springs
-3.66
121
Sedgwick
-4.02
122
Abilene
-4.14
123
St. Marys
-4.23
124
Jackson Heights
-5.19
125
Cimarron
-5.33
126
Columbus
-5.62
127
Ulysses
-5.70
128
Smoky Valley
-5.86
129
Girard
-6.02
130
Ellsworth
-6.22
131
Washington County
-6.45
132
Galena
-6.55
133
Chapman
-6.69
134
Chaparral
-7.32
135
Santa Fe Trail
-7.33
136
Hutchinson Trinity
-9.20
137
Wichita Southeast
-9.33
138
Meade
-9.53
139
Caney Valley
-9.90
140
Hillsboro
-10.13
141
Valley Heights
-10.16
142
Thomas More Prep-Marian
-10.17
143
Circle
-10.39
144
Jefferson County North
-11.28
145
Larned
-11.41
146
Field Kindley
-12.44
147
Lyndon
-12.51
148
Jefferson West
-12.72
149
Haven
-12.78
150
Kansas City Schlagle
-12.87
151
Inman
-13.14
152
Troy
-13.30
153
Russell
-13.51
154
Parsons
-13.58
155
El Dorado
-13.75
156
Burlington
-14.45
157
Goodland
-14.56
158
Sterling
-14.62
159
Nickerson
-14.74
160
Baldwin
-14.94
161
Humboldt
-15.09
162
Independence
-15.77
163
Kansas City Washington
-15.83
164
Ell-Saline
-15.94
165
Minneapolis
-16.05
166
Marion
-16.23
167
Lakin
-16.34
168
Wichita Trinity Academy
-16.85
169
Moundridge
-17.12
170
Topeka Highland Park
-17.45
171
Royal Valley
-17.75
172
Medicine Lodge
-18.19
173
Council Grove
-19.14
174
La Crosse
-19.80
175
Topeka West
-20.05
176
Ellis
-20.85
177
Riverside
-21.08
178
Wabaunsee
-22.26
179
Iola
-22.34
180
Maur Hill Prep
-22.81
181
Oakley
-23.01
182
Hiawatha
-23.86
183
Mission Valley
-23.91
184
Republic County
-24.57
185
Kansas City Sumner
-25.15
186
Anderson County
-25.80
187
Wichita North
-27.05
188
Riverton
-27.89
189
Douglass
-29.36
190
Kansas City Turner
-29.50
191
Kansas City Wyandotte
-29.51
192
South Sumner
-29.57
193
Pleasant Ridge
-29.98
194
Elkhart
-30.05
195
Cair Paravel
-30.60
196
Bishop Ward
-30.78
197
Salina Sacred Heart
-30.79
198
Cherryvale
-31.47
199
Atchison County
-32.69
200
Jayhawk Linn
-32.70
201
Remington
-33.48
202
Osawatomie
-34.63
203
Doniphan West
-34.64
204
Baxter Springs
-35.51
205
Chase County
-35.57
206
Fredonia
-36.26
207
Ellinwood
-37.87
208
Pleasanton
-38.70
209
Belle Plaine
-39.32
210
Southwestern Heights
-39.43
211
Neodesha
-39.49
212
Eureka
-40.07
213
Lyons
-41.06
214
McLouth
-41.81
215
Onaga
-41.94
216
Wichita Independent
-42.25
217
Bennington
-43.01
218
Oskaloosa
-45.17
219
West Franklin
-45.31
220
Central Heights
-47.21
221
Kansas City Harmon
-47.49
222
Uniontown
-48.48
223
Syracuse
-49.38
224
Northern Heights
-49.53
225
Erie
-49.87
226
Herington
-49.96
227
Horton
-50.52
228
Southeast
-51.10
229
Stanton County
-53.61
230
Valley Falls
-57.31
231
Oswego
-57.54
232
Wichita County
-59.79
233
Yates Center
-61.28
234
Maranatha Academy
-61.39
235
Bluestem
-62.84
236
Sublette
-64.84
237
Northeast
-66.30
The next ranking looks at a figure called “playoff points,” and sorts from the most to least successful in terms of advancement in the playoffs. The criteria considered are class size and how far in the playoffs a team advances. To add more context, this is also a cumulative ranking, with teams earning “playoff points” to add to their program’s total.
The two considerations, class size and advancement in the playoffs, work hand-in-hand. The best any program can do is win 6A state. Winning 5A is also a very good accomplishment, but because 5A is an easier class to win, it earns a bit less than 6A. And so on down the line, until we get to 1A, which is far less competitive than the upper classes and thus earns fewer points. In tandem, teams that advance in the playoffs (but don’t win state) earn playoff points based on how far they advance. So, a runner-up wins half that the state champion earns, the semifinalists earn half of the runner-up, and so on.
Playoff Points From 2015 – 2025 (11 seasons)
Rank
Team
Playoff Pts
1
Derby
116.00
2
Mill Valley
91.50
3
Bishop Miege
60.00
4
St. Thomas Aquinas
55.75
5
Manhattan
53.00
6
Gardner Edgerton
50.00
7
Andale
45.00
8
Blue Valley North
39.25
9
Wichita Northwest
33.50
10
Blue Valley
32.00
11
St. James Academy
29.00
12
Olathe North
28.00
13
Bishop Carroll
27.00
14
Andover Central
26.50
15
Maize
26.25
16
Blue Valley Northwest
23.00
17
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
22.00
18
Nemaha Central
20.00
19
Topeka Hayden
18.50
20
Lawrence Free State
18.00
21
Rossville
17.50
22
Olathe Northwest
16.00
23
Goddard
15.25
24
Holcomb
15.00
25
Junction City
15.00
26
Salina Central
15.00
27
Basehor-Linwood
14.25
28
Blue Valley West
14.00
29
Hays
13.50
30
Holton
13.50
31
Lawrence
13.00
32
Sabetha
13.00
33
McPherson
12.50
34
Wamego
12.25
35
Buhler
12.00
36
De Soto
12.00
37
Washburn Rural
12.00
38
Blue Valley Southwest
11.25
39
Great Bend
11.25
40
Cheney
11.00
41
Shawnee Mission East
11.00
42
Shawnee Mission Northwest
11.00
43
Goddard Eisenhower
10.50
44
Maize South
10.50
45
Frontenac
9.75
46
Olathe West
9.75
47
Pratt
9.75
48
Southeast of Saline
9.25
49
Hoisington
9.00
50
Wichita East
9.00
51
Hutchinson
8.25
52
Phillipsburg
8.00
53
Topeka
8.00
54
Topeka Seaman
7.50
55
Olathe South
7.00
56
Tonganoxie
7.00
57
Perry-Lecompton
6.75
58
Pittsburg
6.75
59
Smith Center
6.50
60
Arkansas City
6.00
61
Olathe East
6.00
62
Olpe
6.00
63
Shawnee Heights
6.00
64
Paola
5.00
65
Wichita Collegiate
5.00
66
Beloit
4.75
67
Conway Springs
4.50
68
Spring Hill
4.50
69
Wellington
4.50
70
Wichita Heights
4.50
71
Centralia
4.00
72
Dodge City
4.00
73
Eudora
4.00
74
Garden City
4.00
75
Labette County
4.00
76
Mulvane
4.00
77
Leavenworth
3.75
78
Riley County
3.75
79
Scott Community
3.75
80
Kansas City Piper
3.50
81
Norton
3.50
82
Andover
3.00
83
Chanute
3.00
84
Clay Center
3.00
85
Emporia
3.00
86
Kansas City Schlagle
3.00
87
Kingman
3.00
88
Rock Creek
3.00
89
Salina South
3.00
90
Shawnee Mission North
3.00
91
St. Mary’s-Colgan
3.00
92
Troy
3.00
93
Valley Center
3.00
94
Wellsville
3.00
95
Wichita West
3.00
96
Marysville
2.75
97
Hesston
2.50
98
Inman
2.50
99
Lansing
2.50
100
Louisburg
2.50
101
Ottawa
2.50
102
Plainville
2.50
103
Columbus
2.25
104
Girard
2.25
105
Liberal
2.25
106
Prairie View
2.25
107
Santa Fe Trail
2.25
108
Smoky Valley
2.25
109
Augusta
2.00
110
Campus
2.00
111
Fort Scott
2.00
112
Galena
2.00
113
Osage City
2.00
114
Shawnee Mission West
2.00
115
Silver Lake
2.00
116
St. Marys
2.00
117
Sterling
2.00
118
Abilene
1.50
119
Atchison
1.50
120
Bonner Springs
1.50
121
Garden Plain
1.50
122
Humboldt
1.50
123
Kansas City Turner
1.50
124
Parsons
1.50
125
Caney Valley
1.00
126
Circle
1.00
127
Council Grove
1.00
128
Halstead
1.00
129
Independence
1.00
130
Jackson Heights
1.00
131
Jefferson County North
1.00
132
Kansas City Wyandotte
1.00
133
Oakley
1.00
134
Shawnee Mission South
1.00
135
Ulysses
1.00
136
Wichita North
1.00
137
Wichita South
1.00
138
Wichita Southeast
1.00
139
Burlington
0.75
140
Concordia
0.75
141
Hugoton
0.75
142
Jefferson West
0.75
143
Kansas City Sumner
0.75
144
Topeka Highland Park
0.75
145
Lyndon
0.50
146
Medicine Lodge
0.50
147
Rose Hill
0.50
148
Sedgwick
0.50
149
Valley Heights
0.50
150
Winfield
0.50
151
Anderson County
0.00
152
Atchison County
0.00
153
Baldwin
0.00
154
Baxter Springs
0.00
155
Belle Plaine
0.00
156
Bennington
0.00
157
Bishop Ward
0.00
158
Bluestem
0.00
159
Cair Paravel
0.00
160
Central Heights
0.00
161
Chaparral
0.00
162
Chapman
0.00
163
Chase County
0.00
164
Cherryvale
0.00
165
Cimarron
0.00
166
Clearwater
0.00
167
Colby
0.00
168
Doniphan West
0.00
169
Douglass
0.00
170
El Dorado
0.00
171
Elkhart
0.00
172
Ellinwood
0.00
173
Ellis
0.00
174
Ell-Saline
0.00
175
Ellsworth
0.00
176
Erie
0.00
177
Eureka
0.00
178
Field Kindley
0.00
179
Fredonia
0.00
180
Goodland
0.00
181
Haven
0.00
182
Herington
0.00
183
Hiawatha
0.00
184
Hillsboro
0.00
185
Horton
0.00
186
Hutchinson Trinity
0.00
187
Iola
0.00
188
Jayhawk Linn
0.00
189
Kansas City Harmon
0.00
190
Kansas City Washington
0.00
191
La Crosse
0.00
192
Lakin
0.00
193
Larned
0.00
194
Lyons
0.00
195
Maranatha Academy
0.00
196
Marion
0.00
197
Maur Hill Prep
0.00
198
McLouth
0.00
199
Meade
0.00
200
Minneapolis
0.00
201
Mission Valley
0.00
202
Moundridge
0.00
203
Neodesha
0.00
204
Newton
0.00
205
Nickerson
0.00
206
Northeast
0.00
207
Northern Heights
0.00
208
Onaga
0.00
209
Osawatomie
0.00
210
Oskaloosa
0.00
211
Oswego
0.00
212
Pleasant Ridge
0.00
213
Pleasanton
0.00
214
Remington
0.00
215
Republic County
0.00
216
Riverside
0.00
217
Riverton
0.00
218
Royal Valley
0.00
219
Russell
0.00
220
Salina Sacred Heart
0.00
221
South Sumner
0.00
222
Southeast
0.00
223
Southwestern Heights
0.00
224
Stanton County
0.00
225
Sublette
0.00
226
Syracuse
0.00
227
Thomas More Prep-Marian
0.00
228
Topeka West
0.00
229
Uniontown
0.00
230
Valley Falls
0.00
231
Wabaunsee
0.00
232
Washington County
0.00
233
West Franklin
0.00
234
Wichita Independent
0.00
235
Wichita Trinity Academy
0.00
236
Yates Center
0.00
237
Wichita County
0.00
This will expand backward as time permits for score data to be entered into our database. ↩︎
Power Ratings for 2018. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
