Power Ratings for 2021. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Power Ratings for 2022. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Power Ratings for 2023. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
In charting, “Coverage” indicates the level of detail which is covered by the media available for a specific game or season. In order to provide estimates of player value, each play or possession is charted and the Kansas player(s) most responsible for that play occurring is allocated that play (with its inherent value, good or bad) to his ledger. After some math, a value score estimate is provided that can be compared to others of different seasons and positions.
Coverage is an important aspect to this exercise, because with better coverage we have a better estimate of a player’s value score. The theory behind charting is that, simply by keeping a record of which players did “good” or “bad,” we can reasonably rate players for comparison. With more information, this rating gets more accurate.
Specifically, coverage relates to something along the following scale:
TV broadcast – Video Highlights – Radio broadcast – Play-By-Play – Box Score – Message Board Game threads – Newspaper Summary Articles
What’s best is the TV broadcast itself, but short of that there are other supplemental media sources that help determine how to best chart the game. Note some of these work well together. Without a full game broadcast, having video highlights along with the official play-by-play summary is a good source of reconciling possessions using accurate info. But as we go back further in time, less and less of this is available. In some instances, all we have is Box Score data. Effectively, this is a “bare minimum” of coverage.
Like the player value stats themselves, coverage is itself recorded and graded. A score of 100.0% is best with 89.0% being set as the middle and 78.0% being worst. Since 2006, the coverage by season is as follows:
Coverage has been near-perfect since 2019, which was the first season for this project. Every season prior to 2019 was done retroactively, and the Coverage had to be obtained through archival means. As we go back further in time, we see the Coverage score slip lower and lower.
Coverage isn’t exactly at 100% for the recent seasons solely because there are a few plays that the TV coverage didn’t fully capture and/or there are a few games that weren’t caught live and had to be pieced together through an edited highlight video that, while very good, wasn’t exhaustive enough to show each possession for that game. But, effectively this won’t change value scores much.
The Full Video Left column shows the number of games that season that don’t have full video coverage, or a coverage score that is at least 95.7% for that game. Some games have a small segment missing (such as the first 3 minutes), but these are still given the “full video” designation. What this column shows is how many games are still there to be hunted down in order to fully complete this project.
The % Video column indicates the number of plays which are tracked through video. It will tie closely to Coverage. This metric is a good judge of how much more media there is to find for that specific season.
The last column isn’t complete for each season, but it shows which percentage of plays get a Coverage score of 90% or higher. In order to get a coverage score of 90% or higher, the play must be either viewed through video, heard through radio, or be recorded through play-by-play. Certain plays that aren’t available will be all possessions before play-by-play is available (which is most games before 2004), defensive possessions with no video/radio in which there is an opponent make or non-steal turnover, as well as other odd possessions that play-by-play doesn’t give full context to. Before 2006, this number will likely be far lower.
As part of off-season content, Kansas players of seasons past are randomly selected to be featured in a breakdown of their careers. The players who were selected are listed below. Click on the link to discover who they are and how their careers look based upon the numbers.
For the off-season, periodically a random Kansas basketball player will be selected for a deeper statistical look. Since 1994, there have been 172 players who have played in at least one regular season game. The first random player selected was Darrell Arthur. This, the second installation, will feature the following randomly selected player…
Gethro Muscadin
This feature will be melancholy. Gethro passed away in 2022 following a 2021 car accident. He was taken to a hospital after the accident where he spent months being kept alive while apparently being unresponsive. Muscadin played in only 1 season as a Kansas Jayhawk.
2021 season
Gethro Muscadin was a 3/4 star recruit originally from Haiti who had spent time at Aspire Academy in Kentucky. He was 6’10 with a good athletic build and length. He came to the program for the 2020-21 season, expecting to be a longer-term project who could help the team with interior scoring, rebounding, and rim protection.
On the depth chart, Muscadin was behind David McCormack, Silvio De Sousa, and Mitch Lightfoot. Shortly before the beginning of the season, De Sousa left the team due to his off-court criminal charges. With only 2 true interior players remaining, there was some thought that Muscadin could get some playing time. This didn’t happen, as Kansas would end up playing a four guard/wing lineup around a single interior player (McCormack or Lightfoot).
Muscadin only scored 2 points during his 12 brief appearances wearing the Kansas Jayhawk jersey, which totaled 33 minutes. This lone basket was a dunk, and came late in the second half against Nebraska Omaha. It can be seen around the 15:25 mark of the following video:
In fact, the only shots, either on the floor or at the free throw line, that he took at Kansas were in this game. He played in 8 minutes and also had 4 rebounds. Muscadin did appear in both NCAA Tournament games, subbing in briefly during KU’s Round of 64 win against Eastern Washington and also grabbing a rebound in the late stages of KU’s Round of 32 blowout loss to USC.
Gethro’s advanced stats don’t add much given his limited playing time. Rebounding appeared to be his best attribute, particularly given his size and athleticism.
The next detail to consider is Muscadin’s value stats, which again are limited due to his scant court time.
Muscadin gave up value due to a limited offensive skill set, but his defense was quite acceptable. In total, a -0.49 points per game value score doesn’t look too bad. However, this is skewed due to limited minutes. If we take a per possession look, he was last among scholarship players that season at -9.68 points per 100 possessions. His WAR was -0.11, again constrained due to his limited number of minutes.
Post-Kansas career
Following the season, Muscadin transferred to New Mexico to play for the Lobos for 2021-22. He would play in 12 games, starting in 9, and score a career high of 18 against both Florida Atlantic and Montana St. His official and advanced stats from College Basketball Reference show improvements as he was able to find his way off the bench and onto the floor for a Mountain West Conference team in non-conference play against the 115th best non-con schedule. It was here where he best showed his basketball potential.
Gethro transferred from Kansas during an era where this has become far more prevalent. It wasn’t out of spite or bitterness. In fact, he never lost his love of the Jayhawks or affiliation with the program. Hours before his fateful car crash on I335 south of Topeka, he was watching his former teammates defeat Nevada at Allen Fieldhouse.
This tragic loss of life can best be addressed by the sentiments of Bill Self, which this blog shares. We will leave with coach’s words from a November 1, 2022 tweet.
Gethro Muscadin passed away late last night. He had been unresponsive since the car accident last December. Our thoughts and prayers go out to Gethro’s loved ones. So young. So sad. He will always be a teammate of ours. RIP.
There are 13 golfers who have won at least 6 career majors. The following tables compare and contrast these 13.
The top table looks at major victories; the bottom table looks at major Top 10’s. Each table is sorted by total victories/Top 10’s. Additionally, the highest finisher in each category (column) is highlighted. Jack Nicklaus leads in this category, as he has not only the most majors won but also the most of 3 of the 4 majors. This is likewise true for Top 10’s by major.
In addition to looking at total performances, winning and Top 10 percentages are included. This is because, specifically for prior eras, players had fewer opportunities to compete in all the majors. The Masters wasn’t formed until after Walter Hagen’s prime for instance. And Ben Hogan only played in the British Open once (winning).
In order to keep the percentages meaningful, only the events played before a player turned 50 count in the divisor. We want to ensure that percentages aren’t punishing a player who plays in majors as a legacy winner (The Masters and PGA allow lifetime exemptions for all past winners, the British allows winners to play until they turn 60). This means that each major a player plays at 50 or older can only help him. He can add to his numerator should he get a Top 10, or even win as was the case for then 50-year-old Phil Mickelson at the 2021 PGA.
When we look at the percentages, it better shows just how good Bobby Jones and Ben Hogan were in their primes, and how much better their major totals may have been had they played 4 majors a year like the modern crop of players do.
Golf is mostly an individual sport, but each year one of two biennial competitions pits 24 of the top pros in either the Ryder Cup (odd-numbered years) or Presidents Cup (even-numbered years). With competition most weeks being stroke-play based, the match-play team-format of the Cups has caused confusion regarding how to track player success.
For instance, a player’s official record in the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup makes no distinction between team events and singles events. For reference, the first days of competition are between 2-man teams who face off in 18-hole matches. Only on Sunday are individuals paired against each other. This distinction should matter. A player whose record is good (poor) in team-competition may be due to his partner’s play more than his own. Further, each match in a Cup is awarded 1 point which goes to the winner. A draw earns each team 1/2 a point. So if a player is part of a 2-man partnership which wins an alternate shot match on Friday, the 1 point he earns for his team (i.e. America, Europe, International) is partially earned by him and partially earned by his partner. Giving full-credit to both partners over-counts the actual number of points in the competition. This is non-sensical.
To rectify this, partner contests (best ball and alternate shot) should allocate 0.5 points to each member of the winning duo. If there is a draw, 0.25 points are awarded to each of the four competitors. This makes a player’s singles record accurately reflect this format’s added importance. The following tables will show players’ Ryder/Presidents Cup records using this adjusted counting system.
Ryder Cup – All Time Points Leaders
There are multiple ways to rank Cup success. The first way accumulates the points won over the course of a career. This list rewards success at the Ryder Cup, but also the success of getting on the team and getting numerous opportunities to earn points.
United States
Player
Points Won
Billy Casper
15.25
Arnold Palmer
15
Lee Trevino
13.5
Phil Mickelson
13.5
Lanny Wadkins
13.25
Gene Littler
12.25
Jack Nicklaus
11.75
Tom Kite
11.5
Tiger Woods
9.75
Hale Irwin
9
Europe
Player
Points Won
Sergio Garcia
16.5
Nick Faldo
15.75
Colin Montgomerie
15
Bernhard Langer
14.75
Lee Westwood
14
Rory McIlroy
13
Seve Ballesteros
12.75
Jose Maria Olazabal
11.5
Neil Coles
11.25
Ian Poulter
11.25
Ryder Cup – Net Points by Team
Another way to look at Ryder Cup performance is to view it as a zero-sum game. This list recognizes that if you lose a match, your opponent earns a point for his team.
United States
Player
Net Points
Arnold Palmer
+8.5
Billy Casper
+7
Lee Trevino
+7
Sam Snead
+6.5
Gene Littler
+6
Lanny Wadkins
+5.5
Tom Kite
+5.5
Hale Irwin
+5
Tony Lema
+5
Jimmy Demaret
+4.5
Gardner Dickinson
+4.5
Jack Nicklaus
+4.5
J.C. Snead
+4.5
Europe
Player
Net Points
Colin Montgomerie
+8.5
Ian Poulter
+6.5
Sergio Garcia
+5.5
Luke Donald
+4
Bernhard Langer
+3.5
Jose Maria Olazabal
+3.5
Peter Oosterhuis
+3.5
Seve Ballesteros
+3
Nick Faldo
+3
Paul Way
+3
Tommy Fleetwood
+3
Rory McIlroy
+3
The following tables show all players with a Ryder Cup net points total of -4 or worse. These are the worst performers in this competition.
United States
Player
Net Points
Jim Furyk
-5
Bubba Watson
-5
Fuzzy Zoeller
-4.5
Mark O’Meara
-4
Rickie Fowler
-4
Europe
Player
Net Points
Christy O’Connor
-9
Harry Weetman
-6.5
George Will
-6
Dave Thomas
-5.5
Neil Coles
-5
Max Faulkner
-5
Eamonn Darcy
-4.5
Bernard Hunt
-4.5
Mark James
-4.5
Alfred Padgham
-4.5
Sam Torrance
-4.5
Peter Townsend
-4
Tom Haliburton
-4
Matt Fitzpatrick
-4
Presidents Cup – All Time Points Leaders
United States
Player
Points Won
Phil Mickelson
19
Tiger Woods
17.25
Jim Furyk
13.25
Davis Love III
11.25
Steve Stricker
8
Presidents Cup – Net Points by Team
United States
Player
Net Points
Tiger Woods
+8.5
Jim Furyk
+6.5
Davis Love III
+5.5
Phil Mickelson
+4.5
International player points have not been calculated yet.
The Americans haven’t gotten enough credit for their dominance in the Presidents Cup. While Team USA’s (road) Ryder Cup struggles are well documented, the fact it has gone 13-1-1 in the Presidents Cup gets explained away by the assumption the International Team is too overmatched to seriously compete anyway. This is not only circular, it is also misleading. Since 2000, International players (non-Americans and non-Europeans) have won 19 major championships compared to European players having won 21. American players top this list with 63 majors. Basically, while America’s struggles against Europe are surprising, their dominance against the Internationals is even more surprising (90.0% win rate).
Isolating a player’s contribution
Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup competitions differ from regular tour stroke-play in a number of ways. Players must qualify or be selected to even play. Match play is determined by holes won, not total strokes. The team portion means your partner can help or hurt your chance of winning, and likewise you have an effect on your partner’s record. Additionally, your record of success depends on how well your opponents play.
Further analytics can strip away these incidentals and calculate an estimate of each player’s value in the cup. The one problem is that detailed shot-level info is required. This info has only been tracked over the last 5 cups, the 2021, 2023, and 2025 Ryder Cups as well as the 2022 and 2024 Presidents Cups.
The below tables show a player’s estimated value in terms of net points added or lost in terms of matches played. This is called Value Per Match (VPM). The best performances in the last 5 seasons have come from Collin Morikawa, who earned VPM scores of 0.44 in the 2021 Ryder Cup and 2022 Presidents Cup.
Overall American Performances: 2021-2025
This table looks at the 25 American golfers who have competed in a Presidents or Ryder Cup from 2021-on, and ranks them by the estimated total Net Points won. Patrick Cantlay leads, having played in all 5 cups and playing an American-most 22 matches. Second is 5-cup Collin Morikawa, and third is Bryson DeChambeau (who has only appeared in the 2021 and 2025 Ryder Cups).
The two other 5-cup players, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, are closer to the middle of the American list. Other quiet positives include Russell Henley and Sam Burns (though Burns had a tough 2025 Cup). The only player with negative value among those who have played in at least 10 matches is Justin Thomas. We estimate his play has lost Team USA 0.51 points over the four cups he’s played in.
Along with Net Points, we also made a Replacement-level Value Per Match to account for the fact that sometimes being below average still adds value (over that of the 13th best player who would hypothetically fill in). Setting the replacement level to the 20th percentile of all players who played in that particular cup, we estimated what each player added on a per match basis. Not too surprisingly, the best Americans in this regard have low sample sizes: Keegan Bradley (3 matches), Dustin Johnson (5), Russell Henley (7), J.J. Spaun (3), and Bryson DeChambeau (8). But in the case of DeChambeau in particular, this is partly due to him being excluded from Presidents Cups.
This Replace VPM column also shows that most Americans have been value-adding players, with Scheffler and Justin Thomas looking a bit better once we include the context of a replacement player. Being a slightly-negative value-player in a cup is not the worst thing. The four golfers who have objectively been terrible over the past five team competitions are: Billy Horschel, Ben Griffin, Rickie Fowler, and Kevin Kisner. It should be noted that Harris English’s Replace VPM drops to -0.15 once we ignore his envelope-aided tie in the 2025 Ryder Cup.
Next we will look at each Cup from 2021-on in more detail from most-recent to oldest.
2025 Ryder Cup Performance Table
Cameron Young graded out as the 2025 Ryder Cup’s best performer, with Justin Rose (who had an all-time Saturday afternoon Best Ball format performance) in a close second. The top ten ping-pongs between American and European players, so the deciding factor for Europe’s win really came toward the bottom half of things. The US needed more from guys like Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Patrick Cantlay.
Viktor Hovland sat out the Sunday singles match with an injury, causing Harris English to also sit out. Each technically received a half-point and is credited for it on this table. If we removed English’s singles half-point which wasn’t earned on the course, he would have earned -0.37 VPM. He was certainly a weak link for Team USA, but he wasn’t America’s worst (Burns and Griffin).
This table shows that Team Europe’s players, in isolation, were +0.88 points (and Team USA’s players -0.88). This was the closest Cup (Ryder or Presidents) in the last five years. As the Cup is not played in isolation (Team Europe teams up with each other against Team USA), it is understandable the European side won the Cup by a score of 15-13.
***NEW for 2025…Pairing Luck***
We ran some other counterfactual analysis for 2025, trying to see how lucky or unlucky Team USA got by the draw. In other words, given that the matchups are somewhat randomly decided in the Ryder Cup (each captain blindly puts out his lineup not knowing what the other is doing), what would the final results have been had these lineups been rearranged in random ways?1
This took even more work and simulations to calculate, but our estimates are the following for Team USA based on how they played and who they were paired with:
Wins – 23.6%
Ties – 15.0%
Losses – 61.4%
This was a bit surprising. Yes, Europe played better and deserved to win. But had a few pairings been rearranged, the US was very much a contender. Running 500 simulations, the maximum points the US received was 17 (would be 17-11 win) and the fewest 10 (would be 10-18 loss). The majority of results were between 12 and 16 points (87.8% of sims) for the US.
Looking at each format, the US underachieved on days 1 and 2 when it found itself in a big hole. Yes, Europe played better those two days. But we’d expect the US to have ~6.1 points through the partner portion of the match (with Europe at ~9.9) instead of the 4.5-11.5 score it was heading into Sunday singles. On the flip side, the US overachieved during the singles portion due to fortunate pairings. The Americans grabbed 8.5 points to nearly come back, with the average scenario being more like 6.8 points for Team USA on Sunday. In all, a mean estimated score of 12.9-15.1 was very close to the actual 13-15 result.
2024 Presidents Cup Performance Table
The 2024 Presidents Cup’s top three performers were all Americans–Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, and Keegan Bradley. Cantlay played all five matches and added above-average value in four of them, while both Homa and Bradley were above-average in all three matches they each played.
At the bottom, both Brian Harman and Min Woo Lee had terrible Cups, with Lee having the worst performance of anyone in a Ryder or Presidents Cup over the past four years. However, he only played in two matches and therefore had less of a chance to work his way back to average.
Team USA once again struggled with alternate shot while succeeding in the best ball format. Interestingly, the Internationals played better over the team formats than the Americans despite Team USA holding an 11-7 lead going into Sunday. In the team formats, the Americans won 5 matches 1 Up compared to the Internationals winning on 2 matches 1 Up.
2023 Ryder Cup Performance Table
For 2023, Jon Rahm had the highest VPM (Rory McIlroy played in all matches and had the highest total estimated net points, which is seen in the Net column). It’s estimated that Rahm would added +0.37 net points on average per match. Additionally, each format shows the estimated net points that player added. McIlroy’s Sunday singles performance was expected to win +0.98 net points, making it the best performance of anyone in any session that week.
The losing captain normally faces criticism, and Zach Johnson was critiqued on a number of grounds. One area that’s mostly out of the captain’s control is the performance of his team once the competition begins. The teams were evenly matched according to datagolf.com before the Cup began. The home side just played better.
Still, Captain Johnson’s captains picks were under his control. He could have chosen different players than the ones he selected. Here’s how each side’s captain’s picks fared.
To calculate the difference, you have to subtract these two numbers and divide by 2. This means Europe’s captains picks outplayed America’s picks by 1.43 net points over the course of the Cup. On this measure, Luke Donald > Zach Johnson.
2022 Presidents Cup Performance Table
At the 2022 Presidents Cup, the USA had 6 of the top 8 players, with now-LIV player Sebastian Munoz having the best showing for the Internationals. The best performance in any session was Collin Morikawa’s singles round. Sam Burns played all 5 matches and did exceptionally well, particularly in his best-ball matches.
Team USA individuals played an expected 3.01 points better than the Internationals but won by 5 (17-12). There is likely a cumulative effect here. Although the individual players that make up Team USA were only better than the individuals who make up Team INT by 3 net points, when you combine the better players in the team formats it leads to a larger actual margin.
One can look at this a few ways. Namely, the International Team isn’t terribly behind the Americans. Or, once one appreciates the format, realize how difficult it is for a true underdog to win. Any small difference in talent will be amplified when better players are paired against slightly lesser players.
2021 Ryder Cup Performance Table
Team USA dominated the 2021 Ryder Cup, with the top four individual performers and 8 of the top 10. Rory McIlroy had a pathetic showing and graded out as the worse player at Whistling Straits.
The American 10-point victory was much higher than the net points shown above. This provides further confirmation that the team matches help the better side to stretch the margin further than a pure strokes-gained or holes-won perspective would indicate. In addition, Jordan Spieth/Justin Thomas’ 2 Up Alternate Shot win on Saturday morning was in spite of playing poorly from a strokes-gained perspective against both European competitors. They had some dreadful shots, but those occurred on the same hole that would be conceded anyway. If your opponents make a birdie, you lose the same with par or quadruple bogey. The match-play format rewards birdies and eagles while penalizing high scores less than in stroke play.
In the last 3 Cups, there have been four players which have played in all (Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, and Scottie Scheffler). Now only Americans can achieve this feat, and only those who aren’t on LIV (banned from the Presidents Cup). And of these four, only Cantlay has performed above average for each cup.
No new pairings were made, rather what was done was an analysis to determine what would have happened if Team USA’s first group out in Friday’s morning alternate shot instead played, say, Team Europe’s third group out that morning. We kept the results each team made on a hole and assumed they would do no better or worse if they played against a different pairing. For holes that weren’t finished/conceded, we used strokes gained to estimate the score. The same thing was done for all 28 matches in the Ryder Cup. ↩︎
There have been 89 Masters tournaments (through 2025). The Masters is unique among the majors in that it has only been played on one course. While the course has been updated throughout the years, it is still routed the same way it was since its first year. Same holes, same pars, etc. Some have been lengthened, some slopes have changed, etc.
The first chart shows the winning scores (green), the average running of winning scores (blue) and the 10-year average winning score (yellow) by year.
There has been a downward trend in winning score. The lowest score, 268 (-20), was by Dustin Johnson in 2020. The current 10-year average is at 276.4 (-11.6).
Next, we look at the winning score distribution. Both total score and to par are shown.
The next chart shows how often the winning score is at a certain number.
288 is Even par. There have only been 3 winning scores over par at the Masters, with the most recent being Zach Johnson in 2007.
Charting the Hawks 