Kansas is Bowl Eligible. But What are the chances they get a bowl invite?

After a decade plus of irrelevance, Coach Lance Leipold has the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks football team at 6-5, and eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 2008. This achievement occurred a few weeks back when the Hawks won their 6th game of the season against Oklahoma St. Since that time, other teams have become bowl eligible, leading us to examine this question.

For more background, being “bowl eligible” is different from receiving a bowl invite. Being bowl eligible just means you have a 6-win season (in a 12-game schedule). Receiving a bowl invite occurs when a specific bowl invites your team to play in it. Theoretically, a team can be bowl eligible but not make a bowl.

This happens, but not often. There are so many bowls nowadays that most 6-win teams make a bowl. In 2019, the last regular season before COVID, the only bowl-eligible team to not get an invite was 6-6 Toledo. There were 79 bowl-eligible teams for 78 spots, and the Rockets drew the short straw.

Let’s tie this back to Kansas. At 6-5, Kansas is bowl eligible but might finish 6-6 if it loses in its final regular season game. At 6-6, Kansas could theoretically find itself in the same position as 2019 Toledo. But is this a realistic scenario?

Let’s break it down. There are 41 bowl games this season (excluding the National Championship), meaning there will be 82 teams which play in a bowl game from December 16 to January 2. Right now, there are 75 teams which are currently bowl eligible (i.e. have 6+ wins). With 1 week to go*, there are 18 teams which can still become bowl eligible. Two of these teams play each other (Miami OH and Ball State). This gets us to 76 bowl eligible teams. If each of the 16 remaining teams wins, this would mean 92 bowl eligible teams! In this scenario, 10 teams with at least 6 wins would not go to a bowl game.

But this won’t happen. Georgia Tech needs to beat Georgia in Athens, for instance (ESPN gives the Yellow Jackets a 1.3% chance of winning). Even if this upset occurred, other very unlikely events would need to happen (i.e. Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Auburn over Alabama, UTEP over UTSA, etc.).

Using ESPN’s odds of victory for the final week(s), bowl-possible teams are expected to win 6.22 games. Doing some quick math, this means that there are an expected 81.22 teams that will be bowl eligible following the regular season out of 82. Or it is more likely that a 5-win team will receive a bowl invite than a 6-win team will be left home.

But we can go further and sim the final week(s) to see how likely it is that more than 82 teams become bowl eligible. Running 100 sims of the final games, we find it roughly that there are more than 82 bowl-eligible teams only 30% of the time. But most of these instances are exactly 83 teams. Only 10% of the time are there 84 or more bowl-eligible teams. And only 3% of the time do 85 teams or more find themselves with 6+ wins.

It is in Kansas’ interests for the 5-6 teams playing this weekend to lose. This includes teams like Auburn, Missouri (duh), and Georgia Tech. 70% of the time, Kansas will have nothing to worry about.

But what about the 30% of the time where more than 82 teams earn bowl eligibility? Are the Jayhawks in danger of becoming 2019 Toledo? First note that of the instances where there are more than 82 teams which become bowl eligible, most are with only 1 additional team (83 total teams). Only 10% of the time are there expected to be 2 or more bowl-eligible teams which stay home.

The worst scenario would be a great final week for the bowl-questionable teams. But even in the worst case, Kansas should be able to rest easy. In 2018, there were a total of four bowl-eligible teams which stayed home. This is so unlikely to happen in 2022 that it didn’t make the graph above, occurring only 1 out of 100 sims. But in case it did, let’s look at history. Who were the teams left out in 2018?

Louisiana-Monroe (6-6), Miami OH (6-6), Southern Miss (6-5), Wyoming (6-6). All non-Power-5 schools.

Which 6-6 teams made bowl games that season?

Tulane, BYU, Wake Forest, Minnesota, TCU, Baylor, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State. Mostly Power-5 schools, with a solid Independent and AAC team also qualifying.

Clearly, 6-6 teams are ranked in terms of importance when the bowls decide who to invite and who not to. Even if there are 84, 85, or even 86 bowl-eligible teams; the Kansas Jayhawks will almost certainly get the nod ahead of a 6-6 Louisiana or Southern Miss or Miami OH.

The odds KU doesn’t make a bowl are probably something like 1 in 10,000. Nothing to fret over. KU is going bowling this season.

But not all bowls are equal. The Big 12 has 6 current bowl ties to non-NY6/CFP. The First Responder (University Park, TX), Guaranteed Rate (Phoenix), Liberty (Memphis), Texas (Houston), Cheez-It (Orlando), and Alamo (San Antonio). A Kansas team that went 7-5 (4-5 in conference) would get a better bowl than one than went 6-6 (3-6). As if we needed any other reason to cheer for a win on Saturday.

Kansas 82, Southern Utah 76

Kansas went to 4-0 in the Norm Roberts era, defeating Southern Utah by 6 in Allen Fieldhouse. Jalen Wilson had a career-high 33 points, producing 11.78 points of value above bubble. This is the best game of any Jayhawk of the season thus-far. Dejuan Harris added 4.76 points of value, with K.J. Adams, Joe Yesufu, and Zuby Ejiofor also adding positive value thanks to solid defense.

On the negative side, Gradey Dick’s defense cut against another solid offensive effort. He scored 18 but gave up 16, which after opponent adjustment became a negative-value game. Still, he hit a big 3 late when it mattered. M.J. Rice had a poor outing, missing all 3 shots he took. Ernest Udeh didn’t score but gave up 7 points, mirroring Bobby Pettiford’s line. Kevin McCullar had the worst game of any Jayhawk.

The TEAM score of -6.53 means a bubble-level team would have been expected to win this game by about 12.53. Hopefully this will be one of the worst games of the year, as KU was lucky to get the win.

Through four games, it’s abundantly clear that this is Jalen Wilson’s team. Both he and Dejuan Harris have improved considerably, carrying the Hawks to wins against Duke and Southern Utah. K.J. Adams and Gradey Dick are adding small amounts of value; Adams on the defensive end and Dick on the offensive side. The other starter, Kevin McCullar, has struggled to fit into the offensive flow.

The bench has been mostly weak, with strong starts by Udeh and Pettiford being wiped away in the past two games. Zuby Ejiofor and Joe Yesufu are adding some value due to their defensive efforts. It’s unlikely that Yesufu in particular will be able to keep up his very strong defense.

Kansas 69, Duke 64

Against Duke, Jalen Wilson produced 8.53 points of value above bubble, which is the highest in a game for a Jayhawk this season. Wilson led the Hawks to victory with his 25 points and 11 rebounds.

Dejuan Harris was the second-most valuable KU player, doing so mostly with his defense. He was credited with 10 official assists, although only 6 were actually value-added according to CtH. The official scorer was generous with assists for some reason. Harris’s defensive presence helped KU win the game, as he gave up only 2 points in nearly 35 minutes of play.

Moving down the list, K.J. Adams and Gradey Dick each had positive games and made big plays late to help seal the win. Of Gradey’s 14 points, 12 were on an assist. Adams didn’t win many defensive possession (exactly 1 rebound, steal and forced turnover each); his value was in only giving up 6 points to Duke.

Joe Yesufu didn’t score but also didn’t get scored on. He had a steal and drew a charge. Zuby Ejiofor grabbed some rebounds and added a lob dunk to play nearly at bubble-level. Bobby Pettiford only scored 2 points with 1 assist. Kevin McCullar scored 12 points but gave up 14. It was his worse defensive outing, even adjusting for opponent quality. Last, Ernest Udeh struggled on both ends. He failed to score but gave up 7 points in his 13 minutes of play.

The TEAM score of 11.50 was KU’s best of the season.

So far through 3 games, KU’s value scores look like this:

As mentioned in the deep dive of Jalen Wilson earlier in the year, it was entertained that Jalen would have to take on so large a role on offense for this team that his defense would decline. This has been the case through 3 games. Harris’s defense has been superb to this point, but his offense is likewise positive despite the limited scoring (7.3 ppg in 30 mpg). His assist numbers are what’s driving his offensive value. Gradey Dick’s offense is outpacing his defense. Kevin McCullar’s defense has been overall solid, with his offense a step behind.

Does KenPom have a Consistency Problem Rating Player Value?

With one game in the books, KU’s list of players looks like this on KenPom:

Pretty straightforward. KenPom breaks down players into categories based on their offensive “usage rate.” He also ranks players nationally based on a black-box algorithm. We see that Jalen Wilson is #6 In this national ranking (after one day of play). Again, this makes enough sense. Jalen had 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists on a very good 129.8 efficiency. So Jalen Wilson should have been the team’s MVP in the Omaha game, correct?

I guess not. This is the KenPom box score from the Omaha game. We clearly see that Gradey Dick is listed as the MVP for this game. And good for him. He had 23 points on 9-13 FGA. This efficiency is certainly very valuable. For what it’s worth, he graded out as CtH’s MVP for this game as well.

But it doesn’t take a skilled logician to see that there is a disconnect here. If Gradey Dick was the team’s MVP for the one and only game so far, this means that he’s been the team’s most valuable player for the entire season. So why is he not listed above Jalen Wilson (who is said to be #6 nationally)? Note that anyone without a number has a ranking outside the top 10. This just doesn’t follow:

Here’s what Ken has to say about his Player of the Year ranking:

The kPOY is not meant to predict who will win the Naismith or Wooden awards. This is a standalone honor designed to identify the most valuable player in the game, free of reputation, future potential, or amount of times the player appears on Big Monday. I’ll track the candidates every week until tourney time, and then we’ll have a season-ending awards ceremony two days after the title game. (Yes, the kPOY will be the one award that includes NCAA tournament play. About time.) [Emphasis added].

If Ken were projecting player of the year, then it might make sense for a returnee like Jalen Wilson to have some pre-built weighting his kPOY score. But according to his own words, Pomeroy is calculating the best players only of games actually played. So what gives? Why does he have Dick > Wilson in the game box score, but Wilson > Dick for the season to this point?

My guess is that the algorithm heavily weights usage rate. Expanding a bit on the initial image, let’s see the actual usage rates for KU players after one game:

There are actually two usage rates Pomeroy calculates. The first, listed as %Poss, looks at the percentage of possessions a player uses while on the court (with 20% being mean, obviously). %Shots looks only at the number of shots that player takes. These numbers can differ somewhat, depending on assists, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. Gradey Dick’s %Poss usage is much lower than his %Shots usage, likely because he only had 1 offensive rebound, 1 turnover, and 1 assist. In contrast, Jalen Wilson had 1 offensive rebound, 2 turnovers, and 7 assists. He was involved in more plays, thus the higher %Poss number.

This still doesn’t justify the inconsistency. There are arguments to be made whether or not Gradey or Jalen had the best game Monday night. Matt Tait went with Jalen.

As mentioned prior, CtH had Gradey Dick as the best Jayhawk. The one caveat is that CtH has additional defensive stats that Pomeroy and Tait don’t capture. We don’t blame them for that. It should be added that defensive metrics take longer to normalize. So, if you just look at our offensive value stats, you’ll get a decent idea of who played the best per box score numbers. We have Gradey Dick with +4.95 points of value vs. Jalen Wilson with +4.07 points of offensive value. This isn’t a huge difference, but it adds further confirmation that Gradey was the game MVP.

So why isn’t he the team MVP one game into the season? The only reason must be that Pomeroy uses a different algorithm for the season, and it takes into account usage rate. Because Dick is a “role player” (only using 17.7% of possessions), his very high efficiency and strong production is discounted. This is unfortunate. Usage doesn’t really need to be taken into account, as efficiency and production can be balanced together to give us player value. With more usage, more production will come. It isn’t usage that is important; it is production. Higher efficiencies are possible with less usage, but this will come at a cost (lower production).

I suppose that’s the lesson in all of this. Despite the recent increase in adopting new stats such as usage rate, the most relevant stat in assessing player value is points per game. It encapsulates so much of what the “advanced stats” try to.

Career WAR at Kansas – 2023 team

As with any value stat, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is standardized around a certain threshold value. In this case, the replacement is an average D-1 player (or more precisely, a player who provides neutral value for the average D-1 team). WAR is good because it allows us to quantify experience, and specifically experience weighted toward winning games.

WAR is cumulative, so with more games and more playing time, a solid player will build up his WAR over the course of his career. It was surprising to calculate Career WAR for the 2023 team and see this list:

Yes, Gradey Dick has the second-most Wins Above Replacement of any current Jayhawk despite having played in only 1 official game. Note that the following have also only played one (or zero) game(s): Udeh, McCullar, Rice, Martin, Wilhite, McCarthy, Cuffe, Ejiofor. But this still leaves us with the following list of players: Clemence, Adams, Harris, Pettiford, Jankovich who have less career WAR than Dick despite being at Kansas for at least a full season.

The freshmen last season (this year’s sophomores) produced very little in value. The other name, Dejuan Harris, struggled as a freshman and only crossed into positive Career WAR at the end of last season. Expect Harris to trend further positive as the year progresses, but it is unlikely he catches Dick at any point in this season.

Which is to say the following. KU doesn’t have a ton of experience in winning games on the floor. It has past role players and guys that played sparingly, but not a lot of game MVP winners. Kansas came into the 2023 season with its roster having a combined 4.55 WAR over the course of their KU careers. To compare to past seasons, only twice since at least 1995 has there been less combined WAR coming into a season—2006 and 2014. Of course, this ignores Kevin McCullar’s Big 12 experience from his days at Texas Tech. Once that is factored in, he is likely around Jalen Wilson in terms of Career WAR.

A close comp to the 2023 roster is the 2009 roster, which coincidently was also the year following a national championship. KU returned Sherron Collins (who had produced 5.59 Career WAR to that point), along with a handful of other guys. Cole Aldrich only had 0.61 WAR his freshman season (but would generate quite a few wins his next two seasons). There were a number of solid incoming freshmen that year, namely Tyshawn Taylor and the Morris twins. For returnees who would play a bigger role following the roster turnover from the prior season, you had Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed.

There’s a small correlation between experience (in terms of Career WAR) and NCAA Tournament success for past KU teams. Seasons like 2008 point to experience = success, however 2005 and 2010 teams had comparatively similar experience but still lost in the first weekend. On the other side, the 2012 and 2018 teams had less incoming WAR than the average KU team does yet each managed to make the Final Four. The 2022 team was somewhere in the middle.

Kansas 89, Nebraska-Omaha 64

The Kansas Jayhawks won their 50th consecutive home-opener as they defeated the Omaha Mavericks for the third time in the past six seasons (2018, 2021).

Freshman Gradey Dick led all Jayhawks with +4.03 points of value above bubble. Gradey scored a majority of his points off an assist, with Dejuan Harris and Jalen Wilson setting him up on multiple occasions.

Other positive performances came from Bobby Pettiford (13 points on 6-7 shooting) and Ernest Udeh (7 defensive possessions won in 14 minutes). Both of these bench players showed why they should be part of the rotation due to how they played in the opener.

Walk-on Michael Jankovich made a long 2 with his toes on the line in his only shot attempt.

Junior forward Jalen Wilson also contributed value, producing the most points (21 points produced), but giving up 15 on the defensive end.

The TEAM as a whole was only +2.37 in value. KU only won by 25 against a team that it was favored to beat by 30+ points. On paper, Omaha wasn’t a tough matchup, which is why the value scores look so low. Harris, McCullar, Adams, and Yesufu had positive unadjusted scores; but didn’t do enough to overcome the opponent discount of the Mavericks. Omaha was ranked #330 on KenPom coming into the game. If they improve upon this ranking as they play more games, the value scores for KU will also improve during the season.

The offensive score (+6.74) was more efficient than the defensive effort (-4.37). Although KU only allowed 64 points to UNO, this was on 69 charted possessions. Given Omaha’s discount factor, this graded out to be a poor defensive effort. On the flip side, 89 points against Omaha graded positively in 69 possessions (1.29 Off_eff).

Kansas is back in action Thursday against North Dakota State. The Bison fell to Arkansas 76-58 in their opener, and sit at #205 in KenPom. KU is favored by 23 points according to the computer metric.

Kansas 94, Pittsburg State 63

The 2022 National Champions looked sluggish to start, falling behind as much as 15, midway through the first half. However, the Hawks quickly turned it around and ran away from the Gorillas to win 94-63 in the team’s only televised exhibition matchup. The games will start to count for real on Monday when the Omaha Mavericks come to visit. In terms of most to least valuable, here is how the Jayhawks graded out against Pitt St.

Kevin McCullar +8.90

The Texas Tech transfer finished with 13 points, but it was his defense which stood out. He only allowed 1 point, while winning 11 possessions because of a steal, rebound, block, or forced turnover. While he may have benefited from his man missing an open shot here or there, it’s clear he is a legitimate plus defender who will almost certainly grade out as the team’s best over the course of a 31+ game schedule. He will do best getting his points in transition, although he can make the occasional 3.

Gradey Dick +6.01

The 5-star frosh started slowly, but got into the action with a backdoor cut for a dunk. From there his full offensive game was on display. Ripping open 3’s with a ridiculously quick and pure jumper. Running the floor. Finding the open man. Hustling to get tip-ins. Cutting backdoor and finishing off a reverse while drawing contact. All-in-all he had 20 points on 9 FGA’s. The question will be his defense. He doesn’t have to be an all-conference player on the defensive end to add value, but will he do enough to ensure that teams don’t pick on him at that end. Either way, he has earned a starting nod.

Zuby Ejiofor +3.97

Despite playing a shade under 10 minutes, Ejiofor finished with 8 points and 4 rebounds. He was KU’s best interior player in this game, showing how he can compliment a team with skilled wings and guards who know how to find the open man. Like any freshman, up and down games are to be expected. But he appears to be ahead of schedule in his development.

Ernest Udeh +2.18

The other freshman big man got the start, but played sparingly afterwards. He finished with 4 points and 3 boards while not giving anything up on the other end. Udeh’s size and activity will net him minutes this season, but it is apparent that certain defensive matchups will be trouble.

Jalen Wilson +1.66

Jalen went for 23 and 4. He started slow but ended up having a decently efficient game in the end. Defensively, his second half was much cleaner than the first period. Wilson is clearly Kansas’s best iso-scorer, given his ability to put the ball on the deck and score through contact. Since he will be KU’s number one option, he will have to learn to adapt to different defensive schemes he will face this season.

Kyle Cuffe +0.59

Cuffe’s score is due to his defensive effort in not allowing a point. He played 12 minutes, seemed to rotate well, and put some pressure on in-bounds plays to force turnovers. On offense, he looked raw but did have a nice finish in transition. Cuffe’s minutes will increase if he can take care of the ball and win hustle plays.

Dillon Wilhite -0.10

The redshirt freshman walk-on only saw 41 seconds and a few moments of action. The entry pass to him was deflected out of bounds, hence a score near 0.

Zach Clemence -0.48

Clemence’s unadjusted score was positive, but when you add the team factor of a D-2 school in, it becomes below bubble. But don’t less this distract from the nice game Zach had. He finished with an efficient 7 points and 4 rebounds in 14 minutes. He did give up a few 3-pointers on defense, which might have partially been due to bad luck (other Kansas players gave up open looks that weren’t hit…as the season goes on this luck factor will balance out).

Bobby Pettiford -0.98

Like Clemence, Pettiford did some nice things despite the negative score. He was quick and active, creating scoring opportunities for teammates and pressuring at the point while on defense. Pettiford probably won’t ever be a “scoring guard,” but if he can get out in transition, he will provide more on that end than in the half-court.

Michael Jankovich -1.33

Jank had a 3 and an assist in six-and-a-half minutes of play, but also gave up a 3 on defense. He played well, but probably won’t see much action despite his lethal ability to shoot.

Dejuan Harris -3.21

The starting PG did some things well. He finished with 10 assists to 3 turnovers, and added 6 points. He also had some steals and pressured the ball well at times. Like others, his negative score is due to the adjustment factor, as his unadjusted score was slightly positive. The concern this season with Juan is the same as it has been in the past. He does his PG duties well, but does he score enough and “play big” enough on defense to add value? KU switches a bunch, and at times he will lose his man and give up a cheap basket. Let’s put it this way. If Harris doesn’t make a ton of jumpers, he can’t be giving up decent 3-point looks to the opposing guards he faces.

K.J. Adams -4.34

The sophomore forward not only started the game, he also played a decent chunk as the “5” man. He scored 4 points with 2 assists, and had the highest +/- on the team with a +31. So how was his value score so low? Well, he had some sloppy turnovers, but the biggest reason was he didn’t rebound. In 21 minutes, he had 1 rebound for the whole game. Adams is a possible plus-defender with the ability to be a very good defender, but he has to rebound the ball.

Joe Yesufu -11.14 It’s tough to overstate how bad of a game Yesufu had. He forced up numerous bad shots, lost his man in defensive rotations, and while playing off the ball didn’t contribute anything in terms of assists. It’s clear the team wants him to be aggressive, but there is a line between aggressiveness and poor shot selection.

A look ahead to the Regular Season

You can learn a lot in exhibition games, even if the level of competition isn’t equivalent to what the team will be facing for the bulk of the season. Having watched the game, here’s what I expect in terms of rotations, playing time, etc. moving forward. Also, keep in mind that Kansas will have additional “buy games” which should allow them additional possessions to experiment with lineups before conference play starts.

Starters:

Given how the team looked, expect the starting 5 to look like this on Monday. Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, Adams. This puts Adams as the starting 5, which isn’t ideal. As indicated above, Adams did worse than the other three big men in terms of player value, even though his box score +/- was the team’s best. But like Pitt State, Omaha won’t have a ton of size. I expect the coaches to go with the experience of K.J. for game one.

Gradey Dick’s performance was too good to ignore. His presence on the court should open up driving lanes for others like Wilson and McCullar. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t the worst on the team either. He deserves to start, but even if he doesn’t start, he will play serious minutes. The other three are definite starters.

Rotation:

In addition to the starters, the rotation will consist of Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Udeh, and one of either Cuffe/Yesufu/Rice.

Starting with Pettiford, who looked great with the ball in his hands in the exhibition. It’s clear from the rotations that the staff wants to play either Harris or Pettiford as PG. One of these two will be in the game, but rarely will they play together. In fact, against Pitt State, the two played a combined 40 minutes and 45 seconds, with the only overlap coming at the end of the 1st half. Other than that, it was one or the other at PG.

Next comes the three big men. There’s a chance one of these three starts over K.J. on Monday. Either way, each will get time at the “5” spot. Additionally, KU looked okay with both Clemence and Ejiofor on the floor together. Given Clemence’s ability to shoot, playing these two together doesn’t hurt the team’s spacing on offense. It would be defense that would be the concern. It will be interesting to see what Coach Roberts does.

The last question, and the one that seems the least clear, is the question of the reserve off-ball guards/wings. Joe Yesufu didn’t play any point guard against Pitt State, and all signs seem to indicate that the coaches see him as a scoring guard and not a point. However, he didn’t play great on either end in this role. Looking at his stats last year, Joe was best with the ball in his hands, playing point. But it’s clear that the coaches are happy with Harris/Pettiford at this position, hence the reason to shift Joe to the off-guard spot.

Kyle Cuffe likewise had some struggles, but did look a little sharper than Yesufu. And last, how serious is the injury to M.J. Rice? He will seemingly be out for some time, but is this a few weeks, a month, or longer? In the exhibition, both Cuffe and Yesufu played quite a bit on the court together. I think the reason for this was that Self wanted to see which one he liked better. To me this was Cuffe, but I wasn’t super-impressed by him either.

Ultimately, the main rotation will consist of:

PG: Harris / Pettiford

Wing: McCullar / Yesufu

Wing: Dick / Cuffe

4: Wilson / Adams

5: Udeh / Clemence / Ejiofor

With Clemence and Adams having the potential to play either the 4 or 5, and the wings being interdependent. Also, McCullar and/or Dick could play the “4,” it really is fluid aside from the PG and post positions.

Projected minutes is another way to do it. This will be for roughly the first 5 games, understanding that this is flexible based on game score and matchups.

Harris: 26

McCullar: 30

Wilson: 30

Dick: 28

Adams: 15

Pettiford: 14

Clemence: 14

Udeh: 13

Ejiofor: 13

Cuffe: 10

Yesufu: 7

The minutes distro between Harris/Pettiford will be 40 or very close to it. The minutes distro between Udeh/Clemence/Ejiofor will be close to 40, with Adams playing some 5 at times but Zach playing some 4 at times as well. The off-guards/wings will be 120, so 120 between the likes of Adams, Wilson, Dick, McCullar, Yesufu, and Cuffe.

A Deep Dive – Jalen Wilson

Without a doubt, KU’s biggest off-season win was the announced return of Jalen Wilson. The incoming redshirt junior has started 53 games in his career, the bulk of his two full seasons as a healthy Jayhawk. But how good can he be this season? Let’s try and find out.

Let’s first look at Jalen’s per game stats since coming to Lawrence.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jalen-wilson-1.html

After being injured for nearly the entire 2020 season, Wilson emerged as KU’s best scorer to begin his redshirt freshman campaign in the 2021 season. He averaged 15.1 PPG over his first 10 games that year. And while he cooled off some, he finished 2021 as KU’s third-leading scorer and leading rebounder. Coming into 2022, Wilson was expected to pick up where he left off. But after poor off-court choices and a suspension to start the season, Wilson started slow, only reaching double-figures in scoring in his 7th game of the season (team’s 10th game). But he picked it up, finishing the season with double-figure scoring games in 22 of his 37 games played. In the NCAA Tourney, he posted double-figures in 5 of the 6 games.

Where Wilson has shown strength is in isolation offense. A great example came against Providence in the Sweet 16. When KU needed a basket after giving up the lead, they went to Wilson. See 1:06:40 of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ4dOprMnHI&t=2746s

Wilson got a good matchup and exploited it, but this has been his m.o. while at Kansas. This play is memorable because it came at a big moment, but Wilson has had this ability since he got to Kansas.

One area Wilson improved was on-ball defense. A few minutes after his and-1, he made this play against a Providence guard. See 1:08:53 in video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ4dOprMnHI&t=2746s

A season prior, or even earlier in the year, Wilson would have gotten beat. Not only does he keep his man in front, he also makes the steal. Again, this was against one of Providence’s guards, not a plodding forward. Just looking at the official stats, we see that Wilson doubled his steal output from 2021 to 2022. This tells some of the story regarding his defensive improvement. But there is more here.

Value Stats

First, we will compare Wilson’s offensive stats from 2021 to 2022.

The columns can be understood thusly. Off Eff is Wilson’s offensive efficiency. He was more efficient in 2022. PtsAF/gm is Points Accounted for per game. This takes into account all points scored and assisted, while recognizing the added value of an unassisted basket vs. a basket the player was assisted on. In 2021 Wilson produced more points per game than in 2022. TS% is a version of true shooting percentage, with Wilson shooting better overall in 2022. Both ShotFreq and Impact look at the player’s usage, with 20% being an average usage. The team needed more offense from Wilson during his freshman season than they did during his sophomore campaign. The final number tells the whole story. Wilson’s offensive value was steady between seasons. He produced about 1 point per game offensively above that of a bubble-level player. He was more efficient with less volume in 2022 when compared to 2021.

Looking at defense, we see that Wilson’s Def Eff (defensive efficiency) improved immensely. The next columns tell us why. In 2021 he gave up 13.5 points per 60 possession while on defense, a number which improved to 11.0 points per 60 in 2022. The possession winner columns, PW/gm and PW/60, indicate that his rebounding/steal/forced turnover numbers were basically flat. The last column shows that Wilson went from a negative-value defender to a solidly positive-value one. Such a jump is rare.

This table combines the offensive and defensive value scores into one number.

2023 Projections

Without a doubt, this season Jalen will again be asked to take on a larger scoring load. Bart Torvik projects him to average 16.0 PPG. Given an increase in usage, his offensive value should jump as long as he can remain somewhat efficient. We project him to be +1.45 on offense, which would be about a 1/2-point increase. This is a conservative estimate which acknowledges that opponents will focus on stopping him more now that he is the primary threat on offense.

For defense, we project him to be +1.34. This is essentially the same as last season. It’s clear that he made gains defensively, primarily in the areas of lateral quickness and on-ball defense. For him to add more defensive value this season would require additional improvements on defense. But he is already a good rebounder. Perhaps in steals or forced turnovers? Given his position, this is unlikely.

Another consideration is that Wilson’s defense might take a step back as he takes on more of a scoring load. This isn’t uncommon to see. It happened to Sherron Collins in his junior season (2009) and Devon Dotson in his sophomore season (2020). As a player expends more energy on the offensive end, he has less to give on defense.

At +2.79, Jalen Wilson’s projected PPG AB +/- is +0.48 from 2022 and +2.15 from 2021. This isn’t a huge leap from last season, but it’s still a decent-size jump from his freshman year. Bill Self said that Wilson needed to have an all-American type year for Kansas to be as successful as it wants to be, which we can take to mean winning the conference and earning a top 2 seed in order to have decent odds at making a Final Four run. We certainly agree. The play of Jalen Wilson will determine a lot with regards to how Kansas does this year.

A Deep Dive – Dejuan Harris

At Big 12 Media Day, Coach Self was all praises on his Point Guard:

And he should be. Harris is the type of kid who plays the game hard, never complains, is a great teammate, and from all appearances seems like the model player off the court. And as he comes into his third year as a Jayhawk player (fourth year in the program), he is positioned to be one of the leaders on the team in the 2023 season.

On KU Twitter and the Message Boards, Harris is generally seen as a positive contributor, however there are the occasional unpopular types who will point out his stats. The Harris-haters are derided. But are they completely wrong? For instance, take a look at his per game stats for 2022.

Source

Harris isn’t a scorer, of that people agree. His assist total is solid, but then again, he is a PG. The A/TO ratio of is 2.8 is very good. He also gets some steals. On the negative side, his rebounding is quite low. And his shooting could improve. But stats are meaningless without context. The question is less, is Dejuan Harris good, and more, how should we judge his skill? Against all D-1 college basketball? Or against KU-level point guards?  Let’s first compare his stats to other KU point guards from their sophomore years.

This list contains the sophomore-year stats of all players in the Self-era who were the primary starting PG for their team in at least one season. We want to compare Harris as the starting PG against other starters. For this reason, guys like Mario Chalmers (he played some point, but was never the primary starter at that position) and Niko Roberts (never started) are left off, and guys like Elijah Johnson (who was an off-guard most of his career until he became the PG as a senior) are included.

The list is sorted by highest PPG total. Looking at the comparison, we see Harris below everyone except Elijah Johnson, who played 13.7 MPG on a loaded 2011 team and was behind 4 other guard-types. Harris has relatively good numbers when it comes to ball-handling stats (assists, turnovers) and steals. His rebounding and shot attempt numbers don’t look great.

But what about his defense? Unlike traditional stats, Charting the Hawks has the ability to judge defensive skill-level more robustly, and not just steals, fouls, rebounds, and blocks. Let’s take a look at these 10 player-seasons from the defensive side of the ball.

note that Robinson’s junior year is used here, as his sophomore year isn’t fully charted

Some explanation here is helpful. This list is sorted by Pa/p or Per60 columns, with lowest being better. Pa/p stands for Points Against per Possession. This shows how many points the player gave up per possession. This number is set to Per 60 possessions (about 35 minutes of game play) to make it more intuitive. Harris is third among his peers in the Self-era in this category.

The GDP/p refers to Good Defensive Plays per possession. This refers to the number of rebounds, steals, blocks, and non-steal forced turnovers a player contributes on the defensive end. We note that Harris is second-worst on this end, as his rebounding totals are below his peers.

Player value is best seen by putting everything together. All relevant offensive and defensive metrics makes the total player. Glancing above, we know that Harris is a solid defender and good ball-handler. These are two skills associated with point guards. However, we also see he doesn’t do much else, even when compared to other point guards.

Robinson’s sophomore year is used here, as we can estimate his value score using box score data for games not charted

The final table sorts these 10 players by PPG AB +/-. Harris comes in 9th of 10, only ahead of 2011 Elijah Johnson. The Per100 column is also useful, as it looks at player value from a per (100) possession basis to account for playing time differences. Here Harris grades out slightly higher than 2013 Naadir Tharpe.

Breaking down Harris further, we see his offense only bettered that of 2019 Marcus Garrett. His defense came in around average, and this was in large part due to his rebounding. Had he rebounded at a rate of Devon Dotson (3.5 DRPG), he would have been the second-best defender on this list and had a PPG AB +/- value score that was positive.

The irony of Harris is this. When you examine “pure” point guard skills such as defensive pressure, steals, forced turnovers, ball-handling, assists, turnovers, and free throw shooting; Harris is solid and one of the best. But when you add the other elements of basketball not always associated with PG’s—such as scoring volume and rebounding—Harris’s value diminishes. Point guards don’t have to rebound much, but they have to get enough boards. And they don’t have to lead the team in scoring, but they still have to be a capable enough option that it forces other teams to guard them.

Last, the final table looks at the seasons all starting point guards have had since 2007. This is different in that it compares PG’s of different classes—freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior.

Value produced by KU starting PG’s from 2007-2022

Here we see Harris in last. The WAR is Wins Above Replacement, with replacement-level equaling the average D-1 player. This is estimating that Harris gave KU an extra 0.62 wins above the average D-1 player getting his minutes. So even if Harris has been at the bottom of starting point guards in the Self-era, he can still add value.

Looking ahead to 2023:

For the upcoming season, we expect Harris to improve on his 2022 campaign. College players tend to improve season-to-season. As Harris plays a larger role, expect his scoring to improve. But we also want to see gains on his rebounding numbers. There were multiple times when he allowed an offensive rebound, which gave the opponent a good-look at a score (see 3:42 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIMOY6CoQKI Harris drifts away from his man instead of blocking out and watches his man tip the ball out for an open 3). By just adding a little more physicality to his game, he can add a rebound per game or so which will lift his value alongside other improvements to his game.

Charting the Hawks has Dejuan Harris’s 2023 season with a -0.28 projected PPGAB. But this is merely an objective estimate using trends of player improvement. Players improve by an average of around half a point per game per season. But some improve more than this, while some actually decline in value. Don’t be surprised if Harris makes a big leap from sophomore to junior year.

2023 Preview

Today KenPom released his preseason rankings for the 2023 basketball season. In it, KU is 8th in the country and 3rd in the conference. By his estimate, KU should go 20-9 in its scheduled games (it still has 2 games against unknown opponents in the Bahamas Tournament). The AP also released its top 25, having KU at 5.

Charting the Hawks will also attempt to evaluate KU’s true ranking by looking at this year’s roster, and then build up to a team prediction based on the sum of the parts.

Returning Players:

Dejuan Harris (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.28

Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +2.79

Joseph Yesufu (Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35

K.J. Adams (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.28

Bobby Pettiford (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.59

Zach Clemence (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.47

Michael Jankovich (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.36

Kansas has 7 returnees, with Harris and Wilson also returning as starters. Of these, 6 are rotation (non-walk-on) players. The projections shown here expect about a 0.50 PPG increase per player compared to last season, with minutes-played estimates having a factor. Jalen Wilson is expected to be KU’s best player, and has the best potential of any Jayhawk to finish with All-American honors. Coach Self hit the nail on the head when he stated that for this team to reach its potential, it needs Jalen to play ta an All-American level. Normally a score of +4.50 or even +5.00 is All-American. Wilson has the best chance of any Jayhawk to get there, but history says we shouldn’t expect this. What Wilson has going for him is that he will get a lot more opportunities to score with no McCormack, Agbaji, or Martin to generate offense through. This could boost his value score above his projected number.

Incoming Transfers:

Kevin McCullar (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.94

Cam Martin (Rs Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.31

McCullar’s projection is taken using box-score stats from his previous time at Texas Tech, with the caveat that his defensive plays weren’t charted. The tape would indicate he is a superb defender, with the ability to score at times. He won’t give up easy baskets, and should be an anchor on that end.

Incoming Freshmen:

Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35

Gradey Dick (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.57

M.J. Rice (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.69

Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.18

Ernest Udeh (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.12

Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53

Dillon Wilhite (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53

With freshmen, the projections are tough. The only real framework is their rankings in the class as well as any hype around them. What we use is historic freshman value based upon incoming class rank. This isn’t a perfect way to do it of course, but higher-ranked players do tend to perform better. For Gradey Dick, his high incoming ranking has him projected to have player value somewhere between the freshman seasons of Kelly Oubre 2015 or Perry Ellis 2013. M.J. Rice is somewhere around Ochai Agbaji 2019. Udeh compares to Cole Aldrich 2008 or Markieff Morris 2009. Ejiofor would be closest to Carlton Bragg 2016. Again, these are broad estimates that are meant to incorporate the possibility of over or underachievement.

The TEAM ranking then attempts to take in these player numbers and combine them in a way which recognizes minute distribution. We know Wilson, Harris, and McCullar should get starters’ minutes. There is much to be determined for the 5-spot, as well as who among the other guards and wings can win minutes. The team has a lot of depth.

The number for the team that was calculated is +5.76. This would put KU at around a 4-seed should it win and lose the expected number of games a team of such strength might. While this may seem a bit bearish, remember that losing Agbaji, McCormack, and Martin to graduation was tough. And losing Braun to the draft was the biggest lost in terms of expectation; him not returning drops the 2023 team down a couple seed-lines.

Worst Case, Best Case, Medium Case

Within reason, the worst case scenario would be for Kansas to struggle due to lack of outside shooting and experience. Teams would force the Hawks to knock down shots; forcing guys like Wilson (26.3%), Harris (32.3%), Yesufu (26.2%), Clemence (27.3%), and McCullar (31.1%) to hit open 3’s (3-point percentage from 2022). Another struggle could be the abundance of depth without much differentiation. The 5-spot is still up for grabs, and the D-1 experience at this position is lacking to say the least. Either freshman big has the athleticism, but can either anchor inside in his first year? Clemence showed some talent last year, but played 10+ minutes in a game only twice the entire season. Cam Martin did get a year of practice to adjust to the speed and talent of this level, but how much of his D-2 success can lever up? It may be that K.J. Adams starts the season at the “5,” at least in the games before KU faces true low-post skill.

The point guard position is also another question. Dejuan Harris is loved by fans, but he hasn’t produced the numbers to match this affection. He will need to be a bigger scorer than he was last year. He scored at a rate below half of what the team did as a whole last year. His offensive value from scoring was -4.11 points below bubble per 100 possessions, easily the worst of the top 8 guys in the rotation. While we expect improvement, it would have to be monumental for Harris to become a top 2 or 3 scorer (as Bart Torvik projects). That kind of leap is rare. Moving on to Yesufu and Pettiford; neither were suitable backups last season. In fact, each was even worse than Harris on offense, along with being subpar defenders. Worst case scenario: KU gets a middling-seed (6 or worse) and gets bounced in the First Round.

Switching gears to a reasonable best-case scenario, Kansas finds a nice rotation of 8-9 guys which balance to fill each position nicely. Wilson has an all-American type year, and bolstered by strong defense, the Jayhawks go on to win 25 or so games and get a top-2 seed in the Tournament. From there, a Final Four run is possible, with a very low chance at cutting down the nets in April. Final Four is a good reasonable goal for the 2023 team.

The medium scenario places KU at about a 4-seed. They will compete with the top teams in the Big 12 and maybe even share the title. The freshmen show potential but also reminders of their age. Jalen has a good but not elite year, and has to carry the team for much of the way. The defense is solid but poor outside shooting occasionally plagues them. A second-weekend NCAA Tournament is within expectation, but after that they should be underdogs in the later rounds barring massive upsets.

Wrapping up Last Season

Finally, we look back at last season’s projections. For a TEAM score, we projected +9.50, which was basically matched at +9.46 following the Big 12 Tournament. Thanks to an outstanding 6-game run in the NCAA Tourney, KU finished at +10.21 to exceed expectations and win the National Championship.

But while the TEAM projection was quite accurate, how the team got there was not. Ochai Agbaji (+4.39) and Christian Braun (+3.91) exceeded their low pre-season estimates. Meanwhile, Remy Martin (+1.06) and David McCormack (+1.35) did not achieve what they had been expected to. Jalen Wilson (+2.31) was another bright spot, whereas Joseph Yesufu (-1.06) was very disappointing as an incoming transfer.