Kansas 91, Seton Hall 65
2006 Kansas Jayhawks
The 2006 Kansas Jayhawks finished the season with a 25-8 (13-3) record, winning a share of the Big 12 Regular Season as well as the Conference Tournament. The team earned a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and would be eliminated in the Round of 64. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.
Offense
The 2006 Offense was a work in progress, with the team producing a value score below bubble-level for the season. Mario Chalmers led the team with a +1.10 value-score thanks to accounting for a team-leading 0.486 points per minute. Chalmers played fewer minutes than the other starting guards yet produced as much or more offense than Robinson and Rush. Julian Wright was the team’s second most-valuable offensive player. One area of note is the team’s offensive balance. Among its main starters, shot frequency ranged from 19.6% to 22.2%. Chalmers graded out as the team’s best shooter, but there wasn’t a large range of offensive performance as is seen in other years.
Defense
The 2006 Defense made up for the team’s offensive struggles, finishing the season as KenPom’s #2 defense overall. This defense would also be the first year of a three-year run of excellent defense; anchored by strong defenders such as Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Russell Robinson, and Sasha Kaun. But the player who graded out as the team’s best defender in ’06 was actually Darnell Jackson, a strong rebounder and solid positional player in the post. The team was stingy about giving up points and competed for rebounds and loose balls. They also had a fair amount of balance on defense, with their guards winning possessions at a reasonable clip.
Adj. PPGAB +/-
The 2006 team had six players post > +1.00 value scores on the season. Leading all Jayhawks was Mario Chalmers, whose score was a shade under +2.00. Darnell Jackson finished second on a per game basis despite playing only 26.5% of available minutes (some of this was due to eligibility issues). Julian Wright and Sasha Kaun graded out with equal value scores. Brandon Rush and Russell Robinson also had very solid seasons in 2006.
The TEAM score of +7.94 is below the average of +9.63 over the past 26 seasons (1997-2022), placing the team 19th of 26 over this period. This was a team that saw steady improvement as its younger players matured. After 11 games it was only performing at +3.10 points above bubble. By 16 games it was +4.66. And by 21 games it was +7.36.
Much of the balance can be seen in this chart. Note that Jackson’s total points above bubble is fifth on the team, as he only played in 23 games.
Season Recap
After January 1, the 2006 Jayhawks went 18-4 (13-3), playing basketball at a true KU-level of +10.36 points above bubble. Although it wasn’t known at the time, this hot streak would be crucial in securing a share of the conference title (with Texas), and would become the second regular season Big 12 title in a stretch of 14 in a row. The co-champ Jayhawks and Longhorns would meet in Dallas for the tournament championship in March, with Kansas avenging its loss a few weeks earlier in an 80-68 fashion.
Despite the hot play late in the year, KU was only able to get a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament and would draw a talented and experienced Bradley team. For the second season in a row, KU would lose in the First Round. But the core of the team would regroup, return, and go on to achieve considerably more in the next two seasons.
Julian Wright had an explosive freshman season.
Despite the lack of collegiate experience, the 2006 team gelled during Big 12 play.
2023 Kansas Jayhawks
The 2023 Kansas Jayhawks went 28-8 (13-5). The team won the Big 12 Regular Season Championship and earned a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas reached the Round of 32 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference page is here.
Offense
The 2023 Offense was led by Jalen Wilson. Wilson’s shot frequency was the team’s highest since Thomas Robinson in 2012 also had a 31.1% ShotFreq. Despite his high volume, Jalen was right on pace with the team average regarding true shooting percentage (TS%). Gradey Dick was the team’s second most-valuable player on offense, generating his value through scoring and high-percentage outside shooting. His ability to limit turnovers also was a plus. K.J. Adams was the other starter to add offensive value, largely due to his offensive rebounding and efficiency. Dajuan Harris improved the most toward the end of the season. Over his last 13 games, Juan was over +1.00 per game on offense.
Defense
The 2023 defense was the better half of the ball for Kansas. Despite playing an undersized starting 5, KU finished the season as KenPom’s #11 defense. Dajuan Harris earned Big 12 DPOY honors, and his value is quantified best here at over 2 points per game above-bubble. Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar were also excellent defensive players. Gradey Dick was someone who got overly criticized for his defense. While he had some struggles, he hustled, rebounded, and had a fair amount of deflections. In total, he produced an above-bubble defensive effort to compliment the value he provided on the offensive side of things. K.J. Adams was around bubble-level while playing out of position. The bench had some acceptable defenders, with Joe Yesufu probably getting overlooked the most. Joe wasn’t a lock-down defender, but he also used his strength and quickness to bother bigger players. Freshman Ernest Udeh showed the most defensive potential as an athletic and long big-man. It will be interesting to see how his career develops on this end of the floor.
Total Adjusted PPGAB +/-
Jalen Wilson put up an All-American level of value, and with it, a 1st team nod. All starters were positive, while each bench player producing at or below-bubble. KU’s bench was bad this season, and finished as the worst in Self’s 20 seasons in Lawrence.
Value Seen 3 Ways
Player value can be shown in slightly different ways. This is because players have different levels of playing time based on a variety of factors. To best show this, we want to consider these four levels of player value.
First is PPG +/-. This is generally the best metric as it tracks closest with the traditional stats that are most intuitive to basketball fans, such as points per game or rebounds per game. This value metric estimates how much better, in net points per game, a player has been above that of a hypothetical bubble-level player.
Second is Per 100 possessions +/-. This value metric looks at how much better a player has been over a bubble-level player over the course of 100 possessions. This metric is valuable when comparing players who’ve played in different numbers of games but similar minutes. KU’s bench players, who tend to battle each other for backup playing time this season, are best compared against one another using this metric rather than PPG +/-.
Third is WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. This value metric compares KU players against a hypothetical replacement player who is an average D1 player instead of the (better) bubble-level player. It also converts points +/- into “wins” using a multiple. This metric is cumulative, so players with more minutes will have the chance to earn more WAR (provided they are above replacement…below replacement players will see their values dip).
Fourth is POCWAB, or Player’s Own Clutch Wins Against Bubble. This metric takes into account to relative toughness of the opponent, allowing a player to show his “clutchness” and weights games played against teams around bubble-level more than those low-major buy games.
Cumulative Points Above Bubble on the Season Chart
This chart is a telling picture of how the team’s starting 5 carried KU. Each starter is solidly positive, but this value begins to drop once you get to the bench. Ernest Udeh was KU’s best rotation bench player, yo-yoing above and below bubble on the season game-to-game. The reserve guards/wings were mostly dreadful, while the other bench bigs didn’t get many minutes.
Assessing the 2023 Team
Back in mid-October, the 2023 team’s value-stats were projected here.
Given who was returning, and attempting to project how good the incoming players would be, we estimated KU would have an average game score of +5.76. The 2023 team outperformed this benchmark by about 1 point. Given historic trends, KU’s estimated game score would have placed it around a 4-seed, whereas KU earned a 1-seed due to a great record in close games. With its toughest-in-the-nation strength of schedule and 17 Quad-1 wins, KU earned a 1-seed despite the various computer metrics placing the team around 10th. While the team lost in the second-round to an 8-seed, it was only 4 point favorites at tip, making the early exit less of an upset than one normally associates with 8-seed over 1-seed games. In total, the team overachieved in the regular season and underachieved in the Tournament. While one wishes these scenarios were reversed, they aren’t completely without hardware. The team did win a Big 12 Title outright by going 13-5. In (parentheses) are the preseason projections for the individual’s Adj PPG +/-. Actuals are in the table above.
Getting to individual performances, Jalen Wilson outdid his projection (+2.79) by nearly 3 value points per game. He became the volume scorer the team needed him to be, and finished the season as a 1st-team All-American thanks to the highly productive season he had.
Dajuan Harris was KU’s second-best player over the course of the season, and his season also exceeded expectations greatly (-0.28). It seems odd now that he was projected to be a (slightly) below-bubble player. But that is what he was his first two seasons. Harris showed an improved ability to score the ball, and became more comfortable running the show and making reads off the high-ball screen. His defense was also greatly improved, as evidenced by his conference DPOY award.
Gradey Dick’s freshman season was about as projected (+1.57). He started out the season on fire from behind the arc, but as teams started to defend him more aggressively he had to find other ways to contribute. It was the best freshman season since Devon Dotson in 2019, and despite the high expectations, Dick was the only newcomer to meet his projected score in 2023.
Kevin McCullar, a veteran newcomer, was slightly below his projected value (+1.94). This shouldn’t discount his season, which was still solid. Kevin’s defense was certainly where his value was. He was less of a stingy defender than expected, but he made up for this by proficient rebounding and forced turnover numbers. He was capable at switching and communicating things as well. KU isn’t anywhere near the 10th best defense without him.
K.J. Adams (+0.28) didn’t exceed expectations by as much as one might think, however a per-game above-bubble value score is only one way to quantify player value. Adams’ projection was premised on the idea he would get fewer minutes and play out-of-position less. The fact he was KU’s starting 5, played nearly 68% of available minutes, and still reached expectations means quite a bit. He was able to utilize the mismatch on the offensive side of things, being quicker than most opposing 5’s. His defensive rebounding was a work-in-progress for most of the year (although it did improve). His position moving into future seasons will be something to watch. While he proved he can handle the 5, where he plays will be predicated on the roster construction. If he does move to the power-forward role, expect his defense to improve (as he defends more perimeter-oriented players) and his offense to worsen (as he would be guarded by quicker players).
Ernest Udeh (+0.12) didn’t finish above-bubble as forecast, but he wasn’t too far off. Udeh was KU’s best bench player, and showed the most upside. While he is still underdeveloped on the offensive side of the ball, he should prove to be a good to great defender in upcoming seasons. And with a PG as good as Dajuan Harris finding him for lobs, he should still project to produce for the KU offense next season. Watch out, Udeh should be a good one.
Zuby Ejiofor (-0.18) was around his projection. Zuby’s rebounding abilities and instinct as a freshman were impressive. Like Udeh, he has great potential to be a very good defender on the interior. Questions still surround his offensive capabilities. If he can develop a back-to-the-basket game, it would improve his chance for minutes in future seasons.
Joe Yesufu (-0.35) had an improved season from last, but one still not good enough to reach projections. Joe shot poorly again in 2023 (28.6% from 3), while at least his defense did reach positive-value. To defend Yesufu a bit, he played more minutes than projected and had a Per100 score that was close to projection.
Zach Clemence (+0.47) was the most-disappointing returnee. After a freshman year that saw some him show toughness in moments (at TCU in 2022) and big shots (home vs. OU in 2022), he was picked to be the guy to have that sophomore jump. It never came, and instead went to K.J. Adams. Clemence graded out as a worse defender in 2023 while he never could get his shot to fall.
M.J. Rice (+0.69) was obviously over-projected, as one would expect his adjustment to be easier for a wing than it would be for the freshman bigs. Partly due to injury, Rice never got established in the rotation and didn’t see any court time in the NCAA Tournament. Rice was negative on both sides of the ball for the season. He showed flashes of potential (19 points vs. Texas Southern), but how much better he gets in future years will depend on how hard he is willing to work.
Bobby Pettiford (-0.59) had the worst season of any returning player and anyone who played at least 10% of available minutes. He missed his (already quite low) projected score by over 1 ppg. Injury issues were also a problem for him, but he hasn’t shown much over the past 2 seasons to project much success moving forward. He had trouble taking care of the ball at times, which is the one thing you absolutely needed from a player of his role.
Cam Martin (-0.31) played 10 and 1/2 minutes in an injury-affected season. Known for his shooting coming in, Martin went 3-4 from the floor and grabbed 2 offensive boards in that time. He only appeared in four games, but his biggest moment would come in his final game (at Texas Tech), where he would make a basket off a Pettiford feed in the 1st half in what would turn out to be a 3-point game. Martin’s defense and lateral quickness was worse than the other bigs.
Kyle Cuffe (-0.35) played a little of 6 minutes before a season-ending injury in November. He didn’t score during his time on the court. After redshirting in 2022, and no doubt getting a medical redshirt in 2023, he still has 4 more seasons of college basketball eligibility. One doesn’t know what his career will look like, but he still has time to figure that out and one hopes he can stay healthy.
Michael Jankovich (-0.36) reached his projection in limited playing time by sharp shooting (4-7 from 3). One wonders how close the staff was to playing him for a minute or so in a close game given his shooting abilities and the fact the other bench guards struggled.
Dillon Wilhite (-0.53) didn’t play much, but did get a rebound in his 7 minutes of play.
Kansas is Bowl Eligible. But What are the chances they get a bowl invite?
After a decade plus of irrelevance, Coach Lance Leipold has the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks football team at 6-5, and eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 2008. This achievement occurred a few weeks back when the Hawks won their 6th game of the season against Oklahoma St. Since that time, other teams have become bowl eligible, leading us to examine this question.
For more background, being “bowl eligible” is different from receiving a bowl invite. Being bowl eligible just means you have a 6-win season (in a 12-game schedule). Receiving a bowl invite occurs when a specific bowl invites your team to play in it. Theoretically, a team can be bowl eligible but not make a bowl.
This happens, but not often. There are so many bowls nowadays that most 6-win teams make a bowl. In 2019, the last regular season before COVID, the only bowl-eligible team to not get an invite was 6-6 Toledo. There were 79 bowl-eligible teams for 78 spots, and the Rockets drew the short straw.
Let’s tie this back to Kansas. At 6-5, Kansas is bowl eligible but might finish 6-6 if it loses in its final regular season game. At 6-6, Kansas could theoretically find itself in the same position as 2019 Toledo. But is this a realistic scenario?
Let’s break it down. There are 41 bowl games this season (excluding the National Championship), meaning there will be 82 teams which play in a bowl game from December 16 to January 2. Right now, there are 75 teams which are currently bowl eligible (i.e. have 6+ wins). With 1 week to go*, there are 18 teams which can still become bowl eligible. Two of these teams play each other (Miami OH and Ball State). This gets us to 76 bowl eligible teams. If each of the 16 remaining teams wins, this would mean 92 bowl eligible teams! In this scenario, 10 teams with at least 6 wins would not go to a bowl game.
But this won’t happen. Georgia Tech needs to beat Georgia in Athens, for instance (ESPN gives the Yellow Jackets a 1.3% chance of winning). Even if this upset occurred, other very unlikely events would need to happen (i.e. Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Auburn over Alabama, UTEP over UTSA, etc.).
Using ESPN’s odds of victory for the final week(s), bowl-possible teams are expected to win 6.22 games. Doing some quick math, this means that there are an expected 81.22 teams that will be bowl eligible following the regular season out of 82. Or it is more likely that a 5-win team will receive a bowl invite than a 6-win team will be left home.
But we can go further and sim the final week(s) to see how likely it is that more than 82 teams become bowl eligible. Running 100 sims of the final games, we find it roughly that there are more than 82 bowl-eligible teams only 30% of the time. But most of these instances are exactly 83 teams. Only 10% of the time are there 84 or more bowl-eligible teams. And only 3% of the time do 85 teams or more find themselves with 6+ wins.
It is in Kansas’ interests for the 5-6 teams playing this weekend to lose. This includes teams like Auburn, Missouri (duh), and Georgia Tech. 70% of the time, Kansas will have nothing to worry about.
But what about the 30% of the time where more than 82 teams earn bowl eligibility? Are the Jayhawks in danger of becoming 2019 Toledo? First note that of the instances where there are more than 82 teams which become bowl eligible, most are with only 1 additional team (83 total teams). Only 10% of the time are there expected to be 2 or more bowl-eligible teams which stay home.
The worst scenario would be a great final week for the bowl-questionable teams. But even in the worst case, Kansas should be able to rest easy. In 2018, there were a total of four bowl-eligible teams which stayed home. This is so unlikely to happen in 2022 that it didn’t make the graph above, occurring only 1 out of 100 sims. But in case it did, let’s look at history. Who were the teams left out in 2018?
Louisiana-Monroe (6-6), Miami OH (6-6), Southern Miss (6-5), Wyoming (6-6). All non-Power-5 schools.
Which 6-6 teams made bowl games that season?
Tulane, BYU, Wake Forest, Minnesota, TCU, Baylor, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State. Mostly Power-5 schools, with a solid Independent and AAC team also qualifying.
Clearly, 6-6 teams are ranked in terms of importance when the bowls decide who to invite and who not to. Even if there are 84, 85, or even 86 bowl-eligible teams; the Kansas Jayhawks will almost certainly get the nod ahead of a 6-6 Louisiana or Southern Miss or Miami OH.
The odds KU doesn’t make a bowl are probably something like 1 in 10,000. Nothing to fret over. KU is going bowling this season.
But not all bowls are equal. The Big 12 has 6 current bowl ties to non-NY6/CFP. The First Responder (University Park, TX), Guaranteed Rate (Phoenix), Liberty (Memphis), Texas (Houston), Cheez-It (Orlando), and Alamo (San Antonio). A Kansas team that went 7-5 (4-5 in conference) would get a better bowl than one than went 6-6 (3-6). As if we needed any other reason to cheer for a win on Saturday.
Kansas 82, Southern Utah 76
Kansas went to 4-0 in the Norm Roberts era, defeating Southern Utah by 6 in Allen Fieldhouse. Jalen Wilson had a career-high 33 points, producing 11.78 points of value above bubble. This is the best game of any Jayhawk of the season thus-far. Dejuan Harris added 4.76 points of value, with K.J. Adams, Joe Yesufu, and Zuby Ejiofor also adding positive value thanks to solid defense.
On the negative side, Gradey Dick’s defense cut against another solid offensive effort. He scored 18 but gave up 16, which after opponent adjustment became a negative-value game. Still, he hit a big 3 late when it mattered. M.J. Rice had a poor outing, missing all 3 shots he took. Ernest Udeh didn’t score but gave up 7 points, mirroring Bobby Pettiford’s line. Kevin McCullar had the worst game of any Jayhawk.
The TEAM score of -6.53 means a bubble-level team would have been expected to win this game by about 12.53. Hopefully this will be one of the worst games of the year, as KU was lucky to get the win.
Through four games, it’s abundantly clear that this is Jalen Wilson’s team. Both he and Dejuan Harris have improved considerably, carrying the Hawks to wins against Duke and Southern Utah. K.J. Adams and Gradey Dick are adding small amounts of value; Adams on the defensive end and Dick on the offensive side. The other starter, Kevin McCullar, has struggled to fit into the offensive flow.
The bench has been mostly weak, with strong starts by Udeh and Pettiford being wiped away in the past two games. Zuby Ejiofor and Joe Yesufu are adding some value due to their defensive efforts. It’s unlikely that Yesufu in particular will be able to keep up his very strong defense.
Kansas 69, Duke 64
Against Duke, Jalen Wilson produced 8.53 points of value above bubble, which is the highest in a game for a Jayhawk this season. Wilson led the Hawks to victory with his 25 points and 11 rebounds.
Dejuan Harris was the second-most valuable KU player, doing so mostly with his defense. He was credited with 10 official assists, although only 6 were actually value-added according to CtH. The official scorer was generous with assists for some reason. Harris’s defensive presence helped KU win the game, as he gave up only 2 points in nearly 35 minutes of play.
Moving down the list, K.J. Adams and Gradey Dick each had positive games and made big plays late to help seal the win. Of Gradey’s 14 points, 12 were on an assist. Adams didn’t win many defensive possession (exactly 1 rebound, steal and forced turnover each); his value was in only giving up 6 points to Duke.
Joe Yesufu didn’t score but also didn’t get scored on. He had a steal and drew a charge. Zuby Ejiofor grabbed some rebounds and added a lob dunk to play nearly at bubble-level. Bobby Pettiford only scored 2 points with 1 assist. Kevin McCullar scored 12 points but gave up 14. It was his worse defensive outing, even adjusting for opponent quality. Last, Ernest Udeh struggled on both ends. He failed to score but gave up 7 points in his 13 minutes of play.
The TEAM score of 11.50 was KU’s best of the season.
So far through 3 games, KU’s value scores look like this:
As mentioned in the deep dive of Jalen Wilson earlier in the year, it was entertained that Jalen would have to take on so large a role on offense for this team that his defense would decline. This has been the case through 3 games. Harris’s defense has been superb to this point, but his offense is likewise positive despite the limited scoring (7.3 ppg in 30 mpg). His assist numbers are what’s driving his offensive value. Gradey Dick’s offense is outpacing his defense. Kevin McCullar’s defense has been overall solid, with his offense a step behind.
Does KenPom have a Consistency Problem Rating Player Value?
With one game in the books, KU’s list of players looks like this on KenPom:
Pretty straightforward. KenPom breaks down players into categories based on their offensive “usage rate.” He also ranks players nationally based on a black-box algorithm. We see that Jalen Wilson is #6 In this national ranking (after one day of play). Again, this makes enough sense. Jalen had 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists on a very good 129.8 efficiency. So Jalen Wilson should have been the team’s MVP in the Omaha game, correct?
I guess not. This is the KenPom box score from the Omaha game. We clearly see that Gradey Dick is listed as the MVP for this game. And good for him. He had 23 points on 9-13 FGA. This efficiency is certainly very valuable. For what it’s worth, he graded out as CtH’s MVP for this game as well.
But it doesn’t take a skilled logician to see that there is a disconnect here. If Gradey Dick was the team’s MVP for the one and only game so far, this means that he’s been the team’s most valuable player for the entire season. So why is he not listed above Jalen Wilson (who is said to be #6 nationally)? Note that anyone without a number has a ranking outside the top 10. This just doesn’t follow:
Here’s what Ken has to say about his Player of the Year ranking:
The kPOY is not meant to predict who will win the Naismith or Wooden awards. This is a standalone honor designed to identify the most valuable player in the game, free of reputation, future potential, or amount of times the player appears on Big Monday. I’ll track the candidates every week until tourney time, and then we’ll have a season-ending awards ceremony two days after the title game. (Yes, the kPOY will be the one award that includes NCAA tournament play. About time.) [Emphasis added].
If Ken were projecting player of the year, then it might make sense for a returnee like Jalen Wilson to have some pre-built weighting his kPOY score. But according to his own words, Pomeroy is calculating the best players only of games actually played. So what gives? Why does he have Dick > Wilson in the game box score, but Wilson > Dick for the season to this point?
My guess is that the algorithm heavily weights usage rate. Expanding a bit on the initial image, let’s see the actual usage rates for KU players after one game:
There are actually two usage rates Pomeroy calculates. The first, listed as %Poss, looks at the percentage of possessions a player uses while on the court (with 20% being mean, obviously). %Shots looks only at the number of shots that player takes. These numbers can differ somewhat, depending on assists, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. Gradey Dick’s %Poss usage is much lower than his %Shots usage, likely because he only had 1 offensive rebound, 1 turnover, and 1 assist. In contrast, Jalen Wilson had 1 offensive rebound, 2 turnovers, and 7 assists. He was involved in more plays, thus the higher %Poss number.
This still doesn’t justify the inconsistency. There are arguments to be made whether or not Gradey or Jalen had the best game Monday night. Matt Tait went with Jalen.
As mentioned prior, CtH had Gradey Dick as the best Jayhawk. The one caveat is that CtH has additional defensive stats that Pomeroy and Tait don’t capture. We don’t blame them for that. It should be added that defensive metrics take longer to normalize. So, if you just look at our offensive value stats, you’ll get a decent idea of who played the best per box score numbers. We have Gradey Dick with +4.95 points of value vs. Jalen Wilson with +4.07 points of offensive value. This isn’t a huge difference, but it adds further confirmation that Gradey was the game MVP.
So why isn’t he the team MVP one game into the season? The only reason must be that Pomeroy uses a different algorithm for the season, and it takes into account usage rate. Because Dick is a “role player” (only using 17.7% of possessions), his very high efficiency and strong production is discounted. This is unfortunate. Usage doesn’t really need to be taken into account, as efficiency and production can be balanced together to give us player value. With more usage, more production will come. It isn’t usage that is important; it is production. Higher efficiencies are possible with less usage, but this will come at a cost (lower production).
I suppose that’s the lesson in all of this. Despite the recent increase in adopting new stats such as usage rate, the most relevant stat in assessing player value is points per game. It encapsulates so much of what the “advanced stats” try to.
Career WAR at Kansas – 2023 team
As with any value stat, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is standardized around a certain threshold value. In this case, the replacement is an average D-1 player (or more precisely, a player who provides neutral value for the average D-1 team). WAR is good because it allows us to quantify experience, and specifically experience weighted toward winning games.
WAR is cumulative, so with more games and more playing time, a solid player will build up his WAR over the course of his career. It was surprising to calculate Career WAR for the 2023 team and see this list:
Yes, Gradey Dick has the second-most Wins Above Replacement of any current Jayhawk despite having played in only 1 official game. Note that the following have also only played one (or zero) game(s): Udeh, McCullar, Rice, Martin, Wilhite, McCarthy, Cuffe, Ejiofor. But this still leaves us with the following list of players: Clemence, Adams, Harris, Pettiford, Jankovich who have less career WAR than Dick despite being at Kansas for at least a full season.
The freshmen last season (this year’s sophomores) produced very little in value. The other name, Dejuan Harris, struggled as a freshman and only crossed into positive Career WAR at the end of last season. Expect Harris to trend further positive as the year progresses, but it is unlikely he catches Dick at any point in this season.
Which is to say the following. KU doesn’t have a ton of experience in winning games on the floor. It has past role players and guys that played sparingly, but not a lot of game MVP winners. Kansas came into the 2023 season with its roster having a combined 4.55 WAR over the course of their KU careers. To compare to past seasons, only twice since at least 1995 has there been less combined WAR coming into a season—2006 and 2014. Of course, this ignores Kevin McCullar’s Big 12 experience from his days at Texas Tech. Once that is factored in, he is likely around Jalen Wilson in terms of Career WAR.
A close comp to the 2023 roster is the 2009 roster, which coincidently was also the year following a national championship. KU returned Sherron Collins (who had produced 5.59 Career WAR to that point), along with a handful of other guys. Cole Aldrich only had 0.61 WAR his freshman season (but would generate quite a few wins his next two seasons). There were a number of solid incoming freshmen that year, namely Tyshawn Taylor and the Morris twins. For returnees who would play a bigger role following the roster turnover from the prior season, you had Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed.
There’s a small correlation between experience (in terms of Career WAR) and NCAA Tournament success for past KU teams. Seasons like 2008 point to experience = success, however 2005 and 2010 teams had comparatively similar experience but still lost in the first weekend. On the other side, the 2012 and 2018 teams had less incoming WAR than the average KU team does yet each managed to make the Final Four. The 2022 team was somewhere in the middle.
Kansas 89, Nebraska-Omaha 64
The Kansas Jayhawks won their 50th consecutive home-opener as they defeated the Omaha Mavericks for the third time in the past six seasons (2018, 2021).
Freshman Gradey Dick led all Jayhawks with +4.03 points of value above bubble. Gradey scored a majority of his points off an assist, with Dejuan Harris and Jalen Wilson setting him up on multiple occasions.
Other positive performances came from Bobby Pettiford (13 points on 6-7 shooting) and Ernest Udeh (7 defensive possessions won in 14 minutes). Both of these bench players showed why they should be part of the rotation due to how they played in the opener.
Walk-on Michael Jankovich made a long 2 with his toes on the line in his only shot attempt.
Junior forward Jalen Wilson also contributed value, producing the most points (21 points produced), but giving up 15 on the defensive end.
The TEAM as a whole was only +2.37 in value. KU only won by 25 against a team that it was favored to beat by 30+ points. On paper, Omaha wasn’t a tough matchup, which is why the value scores look so low. Harris, McCullar, Adams, and Yesufu had positive unadjusted scores; but didn’t do enough to overcome the opponent discount of the Mavericks. Omaha was ranked #330 on KenPom coming into the game. If they improve upon this ranking as they play more games, the value scores for KU will also improve during the season.
The offensive score (+6.74) was more efficient than the defensive effort (-4.37). Although KU only allowed 64 points to UNO, this was on 69 charted possessions. Given Omaha’s discount factor, this graded out to be a poor defensive effort. On the flip side, 89 points against Omaha graded positively in 69 possessions (1.29 Off_eff).
Kansas is back in action Thursday against North Dakota State. The Bison fell to Arkansas 76-58 in their opener, and sit at #205 in KenPom. KU is favored by 23 points according to the computer metric.
Kansas 94, Pittsburg State 63
The 2022 National Champions looked sluggish to start, falling behind as much as 15, midway through the first half. However, the Hawks quickly turned it around and ran away from the Gorillas to win 94-63 in the team’s only televised exhibition matchup. The games will start to count for real on Monday when the Omaha Mavericks come to visit. In terms of most to least valuable, here is how the Jayhawks graded out against Pitt St.
Kevin McCullar +8.90
The Texas Tech transfer finished with 13 points, but it was his defense which stood out. He only allowed 1 point, while winning 11 possessions because of a steal, rebound, block, or forced turnover. While he may have benefited from his man missing an open shot here or there, it’s clear he is a legitimate plus defender who will almost certainly grade out as the team’s best over the course of a 31+ game schedule. He will do best getting his points in transition, although he can make the occasional 3.
Gradey Dick +6.01
The 5-star frosh started slowly, but got into the action with a backdoor cut for a dunk. From there his full offensive game was on display. Ripping open 3’s with a ridiculously quick and pure jumper. Running the floor. Finding the open man. Hustling to get tip-ins. Cutting backdoor and finishing off a reverse while drawing contact. All-in-all he had 20 points on 9 FGA’s. The question will be his defense. He doesn’t have to be an all-conference player on the defensive end to add value, but will he do enough to ensure that teams don’t pick on him at that end. Either way, he has earned a starting nod.
Zuby Ejiofor +3.97
Despite playing a shade under 10 minutes, Ejiofor finished with 8 points and 4 rebounds. He was KU’s best interior player in this game, showing how he can compliment a team with skilled wings and guards who know how to find the open man. Like any freshman, up and down games are to be expected. But he appears to be ahead of schedule in his development.
Ernest Udeh +2.18
The other freshman big man got the start, but played sparingly afterwards. He finished with 4 points and 3 boards while not giving anything up on the other end. Udeh’s size and activity will net him minutes this season, but it is apparent that certain defensive matchups will be trouble.
Jalen Wilson +1.66
Jalen went for 23 and 4. He started slow but ended up having a decently efficient game in the end. Defensively, his second half was much cleaner than the first period. Wilson is clearly Kansas’s best iso-scorer, given his ability to put the ball on the deck and score through contact. Since he will be KU’s number one option, he will have to learn to adapt to different defensive schemes he will face this season.
Kyle Cuffe +0.59
Cuffe’s score is due to his defensive effort in not allowing a point. He played 12 minutes, seemed to rotate well, and put some pressure on in-bounds plays to force turnovers. On offense, he looked raw but did have a nice finish in transition. Cuffe’s minutes will increase if he can take care of the ball and win hustle plays.
Dillon Wilhite -0.10
The redshirt freshman walk-on only saw 41 seconds and a few moments of action. The entry pass to him was deflected out of bounds, hence a score near 0.
Zach Clemence -0.48
Clemence’s unadjusted score was positive, but when you add the team factor of a D-2 school in, it becomes below bubble. But don’t less this distract from the nice game Zach had. He finished with an efficient 7 points and 4 rebounds in 14 minutes. He did give up a few 3-pointers on defense, which might have partially been due to bad luck (other Kansas players gave up open looks that weren’t hit…as the season goes on this luck factor will balance out).
Bobby Pettiford -0.98
Like Clemence, Pettiford did some nice things despite the negative score. He was quick and active, creating scoring opportunities for teammates and pressuring at the point while on defense. Pettiford probably won’t ever be a “scoring guard,” but if he can get out in transition, he will provide more on that end than in the half-court.
Michael Jankovich -1.33
Jank had a 3 and an assist in six-and-a-half minutes of play, but also gave up a 3 on defense. He played well, but probably won’t see much action despite his lethal ability to shoot.
Dejuan Harris -3.21
The starting PG did some things well. He finished with 10 assists to 3 turnovers, and added 6 points. He also had some steals and pressured the ball well at times. Like others, his negative score is due to the adjustment factor, as his unadjusted score was slightly positive. The concern this season with Juan is the same as it has been in the past. He does his PG duties well, but does he score enough and “play big” enough on defense to add value? KU switches a bunch, and at times he will lose his man and give up a cheap basket. Let’s put it this way. If Harris doesn’t make a ton of jumpers, he can’t be giving up decent 3-point looks to the opposing guards he faces.
K.J. Adams -4.34
The sophomore forward not only started the game, he also played a decent chunk as the “5” man. He scored 4 points with 2 assists, and had the highest +/- on the team with a +31. So how was his value score so low? Well, he had some sloppy turnovers, but the biggest reason was he didn’t rebound. In 21 minutes, he had 1 rebound for the whole game. Adams is a possible plus-defender with the ability to be a very good defender, but he has to rebound the ball.
Joe Yesufu -11.14 It’s tough to overstate how bad of a game Yesufu had. He forced up numerous bad shots, lost his man in defensive rotations, and while playing off the ball didn’t contribute anything in terms of assists. It’s clear the team wants him to be aggressive, but there is a line between aggressiveness and poor shot selection.
A look ahead to the Regular Season
You can learn a lot in exhibition games, even if the level of competition isn’t equivalent to what the team will be facing for the bulk of the season. Having watched the game, here’s what I expect in terms of rotations, playing time, etc. moving forward. Also, keep in mind that Kansas will have additional “buy games” which should allow them additional possessions to experiment with lineups before conference play starts.
Starters:
Given how the team looked, expect the starting 5 to look like this on Monday. Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, Adams. This puts Adams as the starting 5, which isn’t ideal. As indicated above, Adams did worse than the other three big men in terms of player value, even though his box score +/- was the team’s best. But like Pitt State, Omaha won’t have a ton of size. I expect the coaches to go with the experience of K.J. for game one.
Gradey Dick’s performance was too good to ignore. His presence on the court should open up driving lanes for others like Wilson and McCullar. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t the worst on the team either. He deserves to start, but even if he doesn’t start, he will play serious minutes. The other three are definite starters.
Rotation:
In addition to the starters, the rotation will consist of Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Udeh, and one of either Cuffe/Yesufu/Rice.
Starting with Pettiford, who looked great with the ball in his hands in the exhibition. It’s clear from the rotations that the staff wants to play either Harris or Pettiford as PG. One of these two will be in the game, but rarely will they play together. In fact, against Pitt State, the two played a combined 40 minutes and 45 seconds, with the only overlap coming at the end of the 1st half. Other than that, it was one or the other at PG.
Next comes the three big men. There’s a chance one of these three starts over K.J. on Monday. Either way, each will get time at the “5” spot. Additionally, KU looked okay with both Clemence and Ejiofor on the floor together. Given Clemence’s ability to shoot, playing these two together doesn’t hurt the team’s spacing on offense. It would be defense that would be the concern. It will be interesting to see what Coach Roberts does.
The last question, and the one that seems the least clear, is the question of the reserve off-ball guards/wings. Joe Yesufu didn’t play any point guard against Pitt State, and all signs seem to indicate that the coaches see him as a scoring guard and not a point. However, he didn’t play great on either end in this role. Looking at his stats last year, Joe was best with the ball in his hands, playing point. But it’s clear that the coaches are happy with Harris/Pettiford at this position, hence the reason to shift Joe to the off-guard spot.
Kyle Cuffe likewise had some struggles, but did look a little sharper than Yesufu. And last, how serious is the injury to M.J. Rice? He will seemingly be out for some time, but is this a few weeks, a month, or longer? In the exhibition, both Cuffe and Yesufu played quite a bit on the court together. I think the reason for this was that Self wanted to see which one he liked better. To me this was Cuffe, but I wasn’t super-impressed by him either.
Ultimately, the main rotation will consist of:
PG: Harris / Pettiford
Wing: McCullar / Yesufu
Wing: Dick / Cuffe
4: Wilson / Adams
5: Udeh / Clemence / Ejiofor
With Clemence and Adams having the potential to play either the 4 or 5, and the wings being interdependent. Also, McCullar and/or Dick could play the “4,” it really is fluid aside from the PG and post positions.
Projected minutes is another way to do it. This will be for roughly the first 5 games, understanding that this is flexible based on game score and matchups.
Harris: 26
McCullar: 30
Wilson: 30
Dick: 28
Adams: 15
Pettiford: 14
Clemence: 14
Udeh: 13
Ejiofor: 13
Cuffe: 10
Yesufu: 7
The minutes distro between Harris/Pettiford will be 40 or very close to it. The minutes distro between Udeh/Clemence/Ejiofor will be close to 40, with Adams playing some 5 at times but Zach playing some 4 at times as well. The off-guards/wings will be 120, so 120 between the likes of Adams, Wilson, Dick, McCullar, Yesufu, and Cuffe.
