As with any value stat, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is standardized around a certain threshold value. In this case, the replacement is an average D-1 player (or more precisely, a player who provides neutral value for the average D-1 team). WAR is good because it allows us to quantify experience, and specifically experience weighted toward winning games.
WAR is cumulative, so with more games and more playing time, a solid player will build up his WAR over the course of his career. It was surprising to calculate Career WAR for the 2023 team and see this list:
Yes, Gradey Dick has the second-most Wins Above Replacement of any current Jayhawk despite having played in only 1 official game. Note that the following have also only played one (or zero) game(s): Udeh, McCullar, Rice, Martin, Wilhite, McCarthy, Cuffe, Ejiofor. But this still leaves us with the following list of players: Clemence, Adams, Harris, Pettiford, Jankovich who have less career WAR than Dick despite being at Kansas for at least a full season.
The freshmen last season (this year’s sophomores) produced very little in value. The other name, Dejuan Harris, struggled as a freshman and only crossed into positive Career WAR at the end of last season. Expect Harris to trend further positive as the year progresses, but it is unlikely he catches Dick at any point in this season.
Which is to say the following. KU doesn’t have a ton of experience in winning games on the floor. It has past role players and guys that played sparingly, but not a lot of game MVP winners. Kansas came into the 2023 season with its roster having a combined 4.55 WAR over the course of their KU careers. To compare to past seasons, only twice since at least 1995 has there been less combined WAR coming into a season—2006 and 2014. Of course, this ignores Kevin McCullar’s Big 12 experience from his days at Texas Tech. Once that is factored in, he is likely around Jalen Wilson in terms of Career WAR.
A close comp to the 2023 roster is the 2009 roster, which coincidently was also the year following a national championship. KU returned Sherron Collins (who had produced 5.59 Career WAR to that point), along with a handful of other guys. Cole Aldrich only had 0.61 WAR his freshman season (but would generate quite a few wins his next two seasons). There were a number of solid incoming freshmen that year, namely Tyshawn Taylor and the Morris twins. For returnees who would play a bigger role following the roster turnover from the prior season, you had Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed.
There’s a small correlation between experience (in terms of Career WAR) and NCAA Tournament success for past KU teams. Seasons like 2008 point to experience = success, however 2005 and 2010 teams had comparatively similar experience but still lost in the first weekend. On the other side, the 2012 and 2018 teams had less incoming WAR than the average KU team does yet each managed to make the Final Four. The 2022 team was somewhere in the middle.
Charting the Hawks 