For the first time in school history, the Kansas Jayhawks baseball team is hosting a regional. They will begin regional play at noon on Friday against Northeastern. Historically, host teams are successful at advancing out of the regional (66.1% of regional hosts since 1999 have done so), and KU wants to keep that trend going.
It won’t be easy. Kansas drew scrappy Northeastern in the opening round, but will also have to get past Arkansas/Missouri State in the 2/3 slots. Winning game one is very important, but the double elimination format does favor the better teams compared to a one-and-done system.
Looking at the betting odds, KU has a 34.8% chance of winning its regional, the lowest of any host this season. The Jayhawks are also the only regional host to be a betting underdog, as Arkansas (38.4%) is seen as more likely to advance. There are four hosts (KU plus Southern Miss, Nebraska, and West Virginia) with a lower than 50% chance of winning its regional according to the bookmakers.
PEARatings is friendlier to KU’s chances. While KU still has the second-lowest odds of any host to win its regional, the Hawks are slightly north of 50/50 according to these numbers.
Specifically to the opening game, KU has a solid chance to win that one, but nothing is guaranteed:
Should KU get past the regionals, they would most likely travel to #2 overall seed Georgia Tech for the super regionals. This would be a very difficult matchup, as Georgia Tech is ranked second overall in the computer numbers as well.
The betting odds give Kansas an 11.0% chance of making the CWS and a 0.9% chance of winning the whole thing. While this may not be very high, it is still better than nothing. Either way, KU has had a great season, winning both the Big 12 regular season and tournament championships. Now is the time to add to an already great year.
Update Leading Into Superregionals:
PEARatings has KU with the following odds for each upcoming game of the Supers:
Kansas has a 61.4% chance of winning per these odds, though other simulations from the same source gives KU a bigger advantage. Either way, KU is more likely to win the Supers than it was to win its Regional. The Jayhawks will play at 5:00 CT both Saturday and Sunday, and if the Monday game is necessary, this is still TBD.
Charting the Hawks 