Jalen Wilson had his 18th team-MVP game of the season in his final college basketball game. He recorded half of KU’s game-MVP’s this season, the highest rate of any Jayhawk since Frank Mason’s 2017 season. His game-score for the Arkansas game was slightly-above his season average. K.J. Adams had a fine game himself despite foul trouble. It was his best outing since the home Baylor game in mid-February. Dejuan Harris was the other Jayhawk starter to produce positive value, although he wasn’t mistake-free (5 turnovers counting the 5 second inbounds and 10 second backcourt violations). Gradey Dick was guarded well by Arkansas, and he missed some chances to have a bigger impact. His defense wasn’t terrible, but he needed to score more than 7 points. Kevin McCullar had some big baskets in the second-half, but his negative-value game was due to his defense. He was assigned to stop Arkansas’s scorers and had a rough second-half on the defensive side of things.
The bench finished the season with the distinction of being Self’s worst in his 20-year tenure. Joe Yesufu hit a ridiculous first-half 3 to finish slightly above zero, and Bobby Pettiford’s steal and layup also catapulted him above bubble-level. The trio of Udeh/Clemence/Ejiofor was not at all productive and may have contributed to the loss as they tried to fill in for K.J. Adams’ foul trouble. There were a lot of factors that went into deciding the outcome.
A questionable foul call on McCullar with 23 ticks left sent Arkansas to the line, where they would take the lead for good. Had the blocking call been a charge, KU would have likely gone to OT at worst.
Only two Jayhawks who played were above-bubble, Jalen Wilson and Joe Yesufu. Jalen had an uncharacteristically poor defensive game, otherwise his value-score would have been much better. Joe played 29 minutes filling in for injured starter Kevin McCullar, and finished in double-figures with 11 points.
The remaining starters had poor outings, but none were terrible. Gradey Dick shot poorly but defended adequately. Dejuan Harris likewise had a bad offensive game, but his defense was solid. K.J. Adams wasn’t great, but he outplayed freshmen Ernest Udeh and M.J. Rice. The bench has now had 6 consecutive below-zero outings for Kansas, dropping it to the worst bench in the 20-year Self era.
Next week begins the NCAA Tournament. One hopes the team can use this poor outing as motivation to come out focused and win two in Des Moines next week. It was the TEAM’s second-worst outing of the season (and 8th below-zero game overall).
Jalen Wilson had his second-best performance of the season, and Dejuan Harris continued his torrid play of late (averaging +5.28 over his last 10 games) to lead Kansas into the Big 12 Tournament finals. K.J. Adams had trouble inside, giving up a few put-backs to hurt his value score. KU won despite having to go deeper into its bench with Kevin McCullar playing limited minutes due to injury. The bench guards/wings were -10.39 collectively.
In a game that meant nothing to the conference race, which KU had already clinched, the Jayhawks played flat in Austin and got beat on Texas’ senior day by 16. Jalen Wilson had another great outing in a game when his teammates played poorly. The TEAM’s Game Score of -6.19 (meaning this performance was 6.19 points worse than the expected performance for a bubble team) was its third-worst game of the season and its 7th negative game out of 31.
In these 7 games, Jalen Wilson is averaging a game score of +9.00, whereas the others are collectively at -15.94 for the season. Jalen is having a good season, his current Adj. PPG +/- number is +5.53, but the fact he has raised his game to a high level when others aren’t picking up the slack is impressive. He helped KU win a few of these poorly played games earlier in the season (Southern Utah, Wisconsin).
Gradey Dick had his worst game of the year and has produced negative value over his past 10 games. On the flip side, Dejuan Harris is showing he can provide value even in games where he shoots poorly. Despite managing just 5 points and multiple missed shots, Harris assisted nicely (without turning it over) and defended strongly against Texas’ veteran guards. Kevin McCullar also had a nice defensive game to end slightly above-bubble. K.J. Adams was slightly below-bubble.
The bench had another poor outing, as Bobby Pettiford played the worst of the lot. Only Naadir Tharpe (2012), Justin Wesley (2012), and Stephen Vinson (2006) have had worse Per100 seasons than Bobby out of all rotation players since 2006. (M.J. Rice is also on this list, right next to Pettiford). But Bobby’s played the most out of these names, at 27% of available minutes.
Jalen Wilson was KU’s best performer for the 14th time in 30 games this season. He was productive but not efficient on offense, and far better on defense than given credit for. The only other starter to produce a positive-value game was K.J. Adams, who also played good defense overall despite giving up a few baskets inside due to his size at the 5. Ernest Udeh also had a positive game and now sits just fractionally above-bubble for the season.
On the other end of things, Kevin McCullar graded slightly below-bubble but made memorable clutch plays late. His recovery block on former teammate and fellow Kevin was incredible. His hustle for the stick back basket to put the Hawks up 3 late was just another of huge high-leverage positive final-minute plays that he has made in close games this season. If the game is close, he just seems to be able to make the winning play. Dejuan Harris had a surprisingly negative game, although the deep 3 he allowed with a few seconds left (to cut a 5 point lead to 2) was a contributing factor. It wasn’t bad D, but his man stuck the shot so per the system these points were allowed by him. These types of “luck” plays will certainly balance out over the course of a season, so be careful to not extrapolate from single-game results. Gradey Dick was KU’s worst starter, but overall his performance was only negative due to poor shooting (0-7 from the floor, 4-4 FT’s for a TS% of 22.2%). Joe Yesufu hit his first 3 (when the KU starters couldn’t get anything to drop from the outside), but then proceeded to miss 2 shots and allow 6 points on defense. Since a nice, three-game run in late January/early February, he has recorded an average Adj. PPG +/- of -2.10 over his last 6 games. Still, he has been KU’s best guard/wing off the bench for the year and likely deserves 8-10 minutes per game. Bobby Pettiford only played a few minutes and missed his only shot.
The TEAM score was barely bubble-level but enough to get it done against an actual bubble-team.
Earlier in the season, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was introduced. I wanted to catch up with the 2023 team to see where each member of the roster is, in terms of Career WAR.
Currently, the rest of the team apart from Jalen Wilson has 6.74 Career WAR, with most of this coming from the play this season. This means that Jalen Wilson, with 11.29 Career WAR, is 62.6% of the current roster’s entire Career WAR at Kansas. His combination of experience and skill mean that this really is Jalen’s team. How far this team goes in March will depend on him.
Speaking of Jalen Wilson, it is all but assured that this season will be his final as a Jayhawk. He almost left after last season, but he returned understanding that a solid junior season could help his pro-prospects. He’s achieved all he wanted to do, and more. With a national championship under his belt, there’s little left for him to do in college regardless of the rest of the season. Jayhawk fans should be grateful for all that he’s provided for the program.
Jalen has really done all of this in 3 seasons, even if it says he’s played 4 in the chart above. This is only technically true. Technically he did appear in 2 games (for 2 total minutes) in his true freshman season before being injured. And technically, he does have 2 more seasons of college eligibility following this one since he took a medical redshirt and also got the “free” Covid year (in 2021). But as was stated earlier, this will certainly be his final season at KU.
But he still has some season left. 4 games in the regular season, with a potential of 9 more in the Big 12/NCAA Tournaments. Let’s compare his Career WAR to other Jayhawk greats to see how he stacks up. Since 1994, WAR estimates have been provided by season. This encompasses 30 seasons (including the current one) and 172 Jayhawks who have played at least one second of a regular season KU game. To clarify things, this range of years (1994 – 2023) means that certain players’ careers are interrupted. In other words, we have stats for Greg Ostertag (7.09 WAR) from his junior and senior seasons, but not his freshman or sophomore years. And Steve Woodberry had an excellent senior year (4.83 WAR) in 1994, but his first three seasons aren’t included on this list. It’s doubtful that either of these guys are at Jalen’s career level at this point, but it was still something that needed to be said.
So, at 11.29, how does Wilson’s Career WAR stack up? At this point, he is at #17 (out of a total 172), having just passed Jacque Vaughn. Next on the Career WAR list is Devon Dotson, a name which might be surprising to some people. Dotson was extremely good during his 2 years in Lawrence. If we estimate that Wilson will play ~ 9 more games (a conservative but not overly cautious guess), Wilson will have a excellent chance to pass not only Dotson but also Kirk Hinrich (#15), Drew Gooden (#14), and maybe even Cole Aldrich (#13).
Here’s the list of all players with a Career WAR over +10 from the years (1994 – 2023):
WAR is calculated by using a multiple to convert value points (points above replacement) into an estimated amount of “wins.” What this multiple is depends upon a separate conversion, and so changes as more data comes in. In short, the exact WAR number is in flux as more games are played, even for players that are non-current. This doesn’t change the order of the players, but it does change the WAR estimate. So don’t be surprised if these numbers don’t match a separate, more current list of WAR. I plan on pinning a link to Career WAR at the end of the season.
Either way, we see in green the players who’ve had their jerseys retired, and in blue the current players (Jalen Wilson). Jalen is in the company of some great names, and will end his career in the area which normally earns one a jersey ceremony. Given that he has a strong candidacy for 1st-team All-American this season, that he will get that jersey retirement in the future looks almost certain.
As he has effectively played only 3 seasons, it’s fun to compare him to other 3-year players. If he can pass Gooden and Aldrich (which he has a shot to do), then the only names that will outdo him for their KU careers in a 3-year career over the past 30 seasons are Mario Chalmers, Paul Pierce, and Marcus Morris. He’s had an amazing career.
Next on the list we’ll look at Gradey Dick, and compare him to other 1-and-done freshmen.
Of course, Dick has not officially become a 1-and-done player yet. But given his skillset and draft potential, this is the most likely thing. KU has had 10 1-and-done players under the criteria that a player leaves college after 1 season to go pro (KU has had other 1-year transfer players such as Remy Martin or Bryce Thompson…these are left off). The majority of these guys were “wing” type players, with a few post men as well as SG/CG Josh Selby. Of these wings, Dick keeps good company. Again, it depends on the number of games he has left. But extrapolating his current play to an additional 9 games, and he will be above Oubre and just below Embiid/Henry/Jackson. With a stretch of solid play and a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, Dick could leap into 3rd on this list. Gradey’s been as good as advertised.
Last, let’s try and forecast Dejuan Harris’ career using WAR. Harris began his career with a negative-WAR season in 2021. He was someone who hardly scored the ball, and while his defense had potential he would still be bullied by stronger players quite often. Harris has improved on both of these areas, and is now generating positive impact for Kansas. With 2 more seasons of eligibility remaining and little chance of him leaving the program early, let’s look at how his season-by-season play has been.
From this table, we can see each of Harris’ seasons from most recent to oldest. We see that he has increased his playing time (he is on the floor in 83.1% of available minutes), his scoring, and in turn his WAR. Assuming that his final two seasons will be at least as good as this one (with likely value growth, albeit slower growth), we might estimate it as follows:
2025: 3.50
2024: 3.25
2023: 3.00
2022: 0.63
2021: -0.56
CAREER PROJECTION: 9.35 WAR
The comparison list here is of multi-year players who were legitimate PG’s or lead ball-handling guards. This will include guys that aren’t necessary thought of as “pure-PG’s” but still handled the ball in that role. These are the types of players that Dejuan Harris would have been competing for regarding playing time had he played in a different era.
From a projected Career WAR, he might end up roughly halfway up the list. Now this still has to happen, and he would benefit from a 5th season that the others didn’t get, but his trajectory places him as a legitimate KU-level player, something that wasn’t apparent during his first season.
Down as many as 17 in the first half, the Kansas Jayhawks used a ferocious second-half comeback to win going away against Baylor. Jalen Wilson’s value score led the team, his 13th game this season doing such, but both K.J. Adams and Dejuan Harris were essentially just as valuable. Ernest Udeh was also a very solid contributor, continuing his stretch of good play with a positive game score.
The TEAM’s +17.76 score was its 11th above +10 on the season, and its sixth in its last seven games. Signs are pointing to this team peaking at the right time, as the final week of February arrives.
In an ugly game that would have been even uglier if not for Jalen Wilson, KU shot 26% from 3 and had 20 turnovers to reach its second-lowest point total in a game this season. Wilson had his 3rd-best opponent-adjusted game of the season, accounting for a fraction over 24 points while only allowing 6 on the defensive end. He went for 39 minutes yet still competed on both ends of the floor. He desperately needs consistent production from others on the team.
Joseph Yesufu was the other Jayhawk to have a positive-impact Saturday. Yes made a couple of jump shots in his nearly 20 minutes of work, balanced out by solid defense. He’s been a bubble-level player over the past 7 games (86.7 minutes of play), a trend which will hopefully continue.
On the other side of things, the play of Dejuan Harris has been the biggest harbinger of victory or defeat. In the past 5 games, he’s had his worst 3 games of the season which were all defeats. When he’s played well, KU has won. In his past dozen outings, he’s produced a value score of -1.12 PPG, which is worse than his play last season. For KU to win, he has to be better.
Gradey Dick has also been slumping of late, but his worsening value scores are primarily due to missed shots. He’s doing much of the other things better, aside from turnovers which have also ticked up as he has been attempting to put the ball on the deck more.
After 11 consecutive above-bubble games for K.J. Adams, he has produced negative-value scores in 5 of his last 6. He has been struggling to finish some of the plays he was making earlier in the season, and his defense continues to lag behind as he fails to drop well on ball-screen coverage or get many defensive rebounds. He’s still KU’s best option at the 5.
Kevin McCullar, in turn, has generally been playing good ball of late. His defense has reached the point of being the team’s best. He is a great defensive rebounder, attacking the glass with his long frame to finish possessions after an opponent’s missed shot. He also gets his fair amount of steals, blocks, and forced turnovers. Offensively, his game has been a challenge. Since conference play began, he’s only had 2 games above bubble-value from the offensive side of things. KU can live with this, as long as his defense stays stingy. In the 11 games (beginning with Oklahoma State), he’s averaged a defensive game score of +3.06.
Kansas got a huge win, breaking its 3-game skid. Jalen Wilson had his 11th team-MVP game of the season and his 9th consecutive above-bubble-value game. Each starter produced a positive-value game, where each bench-player was negative. Ernest Udeh had the best game off the bench, and was a bit unlucky to end up below zero. He got lost on a rotation which ended in a 3-point basket.
Jalen Wilson carried the Jayhawks all game, and in doing so posted the team’s best performance of the season. Not only did he score 38 points on efficient offense, he did so by playing solid defense throughout all 45 minutes of game time.
Dejuan Harris was KU’s second-best player. Although he only scored 3 points, he produced points thanks to 11 value assists and played solid defense on K-State’s second-best player and opposing PG. Conversely, poor defensive outings by Gradey Dick and K.J. Adams contributed to negative value-games on their ledgers, despite them scoring 16 and 17 points respectively.
This was the bench’s 7th-straight negative-value outing.
Charting the Hawks 