For 2024, KU’s roster will likely lose the following four players: Jalen Wilson, Kevin McCullar, Cam Martin, Gradey Dick. Of these four, three were starters in 2023 and logged serious minutes. Gradey is the most likely name to return despite having the highest draft potential, but as it sits today, we will project him going to the NBA after one season and leave him off the 2024 roster.
In the past 29 seasons, KU has returned 59% of its minutes played from the prior year. This is calculated by looking at a particular roster (say 2023), and calculating what percentage of possible minutes were logged by this roster in the season prior (which would be 2022 in the example). For 2023, KU returned 2022 starters in Jalen Wilson and Dejuan Harris. It also returned 2022 bench players such as K.J. Adams and Joseph Yesufu among a few others. Adding up these players’ 2022 minutes over total 2022 minutes, we calculate the 2023 roster had 37% of its minutes returning.
There is a small correlation between minutes returning and level of success. The R^2 is 0.2324. Judging success as the average game-score a certain roster produces, the best 5 Jayhawk teams in the past 29 seasons have been above the average returning minutes: 2008 (85% returning), 1997 (91%), 2010 (89%), 2002 (68%), and 2003 (62%). Of all the really-good Kansas teams, only the 2020 team (43% returning minutes) was noticeably below average. But even this is misleading. That 2020 team featured Udoka Azubuike, a senior by class who was injured for most of 2019. If you took Doke’s 2018 minutes played (the season in which he was mostly healthy), the returning minutes goes above 50%.
If we look at the correlation between returning minutes and NCAA success, there is a lower correlation (but still some with an R^2 of 0.0512). Looking at only the six Final 4 teams from this period, the teams had returning minutes of: 2022 (71%), 2018 (47%), 2012 (32%), 2008 (85%), 2003 (68%), 2002 (62%). In average, the Final 4 teams have 61% of returning minutes, slightly higher than non-F4 teams (58%). Again, low correlation here.
The 2024 outlook, as it sits today (3/22/23), would be that KU returns 52% of its minutes. If we project out this number to team success using historic rates over the past three decades, this would produce an average game-score of +9.14 (about a low-1/high-2 seed most years) and an estimated number of NCAA Tournament wins at 2.2. The following table has the data discussed in visual form. For the Factor column, this is the number of possible minutes played by returnees, with the highest possible number being 5.000. This column is divided by 5 to get the % column which gets color-formatted.
It should be mentioned that returning minutes aren’t the only thing used to project team success when CtH publishes preseason expectation numbers in October. Not all returning players are great, and sometimes newcomers add higher value than expected. With the transfer portal changes, a large share of a roster’s newcomers have proven themselves to be valuable college players, something that doesn’t get captured by this exercise. KU having Kevin McCullar in ’23 and Remy Martin in ’22 was valuable.
Earlier in the season, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was introduced. I wanted to catch up with the 2023 team to see where each member of the roster is, in terms of Career WAR.
Currently, the rest of the team apart from Jalen Wilson has 6.74 Career WAR, with most of this coming from the play this season. This means that Jalen Wilson, with 11.29 Career WAR, is 62.6% of the current roster’s entire Career WAR at Kansas. His combination of experience and skill mean that this really is Jalen’s team. How far this team goes in March will depend on him.
Speaking of Jalen Wilson, it is all but assured that this season will be his final as a Jayhawk. He almost left after last season, but he returned understanding that a solid junior season could help his pro-prospects. He’s achieved all he wanted to do, and more. With a national championship under his belt, there’s little left for him to do in college regardless of the rest of the season. Jayhawk fans should be grateful for all that he’s provided for the program.
Jalen has really done all of this in 3 seasons, even if it says he’s played 4 in the chart above. This is only technically true. Technically he did appear in 2 games (for 2 total minutes) in his true freshman season before being injured. And technically, he does have 2 more seasons of college eligibility following this one since he took a medical redshirt and also got the “free” Covid year (in 2021). But as was stated earlier, this will certainly be his final season at KU.
But he still has some season left. 4 games in the regular season, with a potential of 9 more in the Big 12/NCAA Tournaments. Let’s compare his Career WAR to other Jayhawk greats to see how he stacks up. Since 1994, WAR estimates have been provided by season. This encompasses 30 seasons (including the current one) and 172 Jayhawks who have played at least one second of a regular season KU game. To clarify things, this range of years (1994 – 2023) means that certain players’ careers are interrupted. In other words, we have stats for Greg Ostertag (7.09 WAR) from his junior and senior seasons, but not his freshman or sophomore years. And Steve Woodberry had an excellent senior year (4.83 WAR) in 1994, but his first three seasons aren’t included on this list. It’s doubtful that either of these guys are at Jalen’s career level at this point, but it was still something that needed to be said.
So, at 11.29, how does Wilson’s Career WAR stack up? At this point, he is at #17 (out of a total 172), having just passed Jacque Vaughn. Next on the Career WAR list is Devon Dotson, a name which might be surprising to some people. Dotson was extremely good during his 2 years in Lawrence. If we estimate that Wilson will play ~ 9 more games (a conservative but not overly cautious guess), Wilson will have a excellent chance to pass not only Dotson but also Kirk Hinrich (#15), Drew Gooden (#14), and maybe even Cole Aldrich (#13).
Here’s the list of all players with a Career WAR over +10 from the years (1994 – 2023):
WAR is calculated by using a multiple to convert value points (points above replacement) into an estimated amount of “wins.” What this multiple is depends upon a separate conversion, and so changes as more data comes in. In short, the exact WAR number is in flux as more games are played, even for players that are non-current. This doesn’t change the order of the players, but it does change the WAR estimate. So don’t be surprised if these numbers don’t match a separate, more current list of WAR. I plan on pinning a link to Career WAR at the end of the season.
Either way, we see in green the players who’ve had their jerseys retired, and in blue the current players (Jalen Wilson). Jalen is in the company of some great names, and will end his career in the area which normally earns one a jersey ceremony. Given that he has a strong candidacy for 1st-team All-American this season, that he will get that jersey retirement in the future looks almost certain.
As he has effectively played only 3 seasons, it’s fun to compare him to other 3-year players. If he can pass Gooden and Aldrich (which he has a shot to do), then the only names that will outdo him for their KU careers in a 3-year career over the past 30 seasons are Mario Chalmers, Paul Pierce, and Marcus Morris. He’s had an amazing career.
Next on the list we’ll look at Gradey Dick, and compare him to other 1-and-done freshmen.
Of course, Dick has not officially become a 1-and-done player yet. But given his skillset and draft potential, this is the most likely thing. KU has had 10 1-and-done players under the criteria that a player leaves college after 1 season to go pro (KU has had other 1-year transfer players such as Remy Martin or Bryce Thompson…these are left off). The majority of these guys were “wing” type players, with a few post men as well as SG/CG Josh Selby. Of these wings, Dick keeps good company. Again, it depends on the number of games he has left. But extrapolating his current play to an additional 9 games, and he will be above Oubre and just below Embiid/Henry/Jackson. With a stretch of solid play and a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, Dick could leap into 3rd on this list. Gradey’s been as good as advertised.
Last, let’s try and forecast Dejuan Harris’ career using WAR. Harris began his career with a negative-WAR season in 2021. He was someone who hardly scored the ball, and while his defense had potential he would still be bullied by stronger players quite often. Harris has improved on both of these areas, and is now generating positive impact for Kansas. With 2 more seasons of eligibility remaining and little chance of him leaving the program early, let’s look at how his season-by-season play has been.
From this table, we can see each of Harris’ seasons from most recent to oldest. We see that he has increased his playing time (he is on the floor in 83.1% of available minutes), his scoring, and in turn his WAR. Assuming that his final two seasons will be at least as good as this one (with likely value growth, albeit slower growth), we might estimate it as follows:
2025: 3.50
2024: 3.25
2023: 3.00
2022: 0.63
2021: -0.56
CAREER PROJECTION: 9.35 WAR
The comparison list here is of multi-year players who were legitimate PG’s or lead ball-handling guards. This will include guys that aren’t necessary thought of as “pure-PG’s” but still handled the ball in that role. These are the types of players that Dejuan Harris would have been competing for regarding playing time had he played in a different era.
From a projected Career WAR, he might end up roughly halfway up the list. Now this still has to happen, and he would benefit from a 5th season that the others didn’t get, but his trajectory places him as a legitimate KU-level player, something that wasn’t apparent during his first season.
Freshman Gradey Dick had his 5th team-MVP game of the season in a career high 26 point effort. After accounting for his defense and opponent, it was his 4th-best game of the season. Other Jayhawks who added value were Kevin McCullar, Jalen Wilson, Dejuan Harris, Zuby Ejiofor, and Bobby Pettiford. The team was able to go deeper into its bench thanks to the (relative) health of Ejiofor and Pettiford. However, it’s clear that Pettiford in particular isn’t quite 100%. Late injuries to Harris and McCullar might also be a factor moving forward.
Ernest Udeh followed up his excellent OU game with another high-energy performance, although his fouls contributed to a negative-value score. Still, he has played well of late. M.J. Rice only contributed an offensive foul in his 2 minutes of play, and Joe Yesufu had a typical game for him. KU’s worst performer against the Cowboys was K.J. Adams, who had the worst defensive outing of anyone this year. He was responsible for a lot of easy baskets from OSU’s Kalib Boone, and also got scored on at times when switching onto guards late. He has struggled during conference play due to his position (undersized 5), but he is also overrated on the perimeter.
The TEAM is on a roll, averaging an 11.74 value score over its past 6 games (where it has gone 5-1). If it can keep up this level of play, it will not only earn a 1-seed but have the capabilities that past 1-seeds have had. Getting contributions from its bench has been huge, as the bench has been +1.10 per game over that span (this may seem pedestrian, but the bench was averaging -5.57 before that time). In its last 5 outings, the bench has been even better (+3.49). This has shown up in the results of the games.
Kansas may have found its next great big man. Ernest Udeh had his best game as a freshman, particularly on the defensive end. He gave up only 1 point while winning 10 possessions due to blocked shots, deflections, steals, forced turnovers, and rebounds. He was all over the place, taking the game over on the defensive end. In total, he added 8.57 points of value above a bubble-player and became the first bench-player to earn a team-MVP for KU this season.
The five starters all put up positive-value games as well, with Dejuan Harris performing best. Gradey Dick didn’t let a lower-output performance (8 points scored, 0 3-pointers) dampen his value as he made up for his lack of production with an efficient game and solid defensive effort. Jalen Wilson was solid as he led the team in scoring after a sluggish start. Kevin McCullar had another solid game on the offensive end. He’s been an above-bubble player on that end of the floor over his last 9 games.
Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Wilhite had positive outings in mop-up minutes. Joseph Yesufu, M.J. Rice, and Michael Jankovich were the only Jayhawks below zero-value.
Kansas went to 19-5 (7-4) with a huge Big Monday win. Dejuan Harris led the team in value, producing a value-score of +7.29 for his second team-MVP game of the season. He had a positive impact on both ends of the floor to help the Hawks secure the victory. Kevin McCullar was also effective, scoring in double-figures while also adding offensive value through numerous assists. McCullar has had a nice stretch over his past 5 games, averaging +5.44 points of value per game above bubble. K.J. Adams also contributed a positive outing for only the second time in his last 7.
On the negative side of things, Jalen Wilson had his worst game of the season in an uncharacteristic manner. Scoring on 2 points and adding an assist, Wilson was shut down on the offensive end all night. He also gave up more baskets than he’s accustomed to, contributing to his second game of the year where he had a negative effect on both ends of the floor (Indiana was the other). Strange as it may be, Jalen seems to play better when others around him aren’t.
Gradey Dick had as good an offensive outing as anyone Monday night (tied with McCullar, who added his offensive value in a different style). Dick went 2-3 from downtown and finished at the rim effectively to produce nearly 5 points of offensive value. It was his defense which drove him into the red, particularly late in the game. Dick has been a serviceable defender, particularly when you consider his age and role on the team. He has to continue to work on improving on that end and prove his worth, as team’s will game plan around his perceived weaknesses.
Now on to the bench. With five scholarship players out due to injury (Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Cuffe, Martin), KU went into the game knowing it had to make due with a shortened rotation. And the reserves who were healthy stepped up in a big way. Joe Yesufu had his best offensive game of the season and has now produced three consecutive positive outings for his team. Ernest Udeh finally broke into the plus-side of things. He’s been bringing good energy recently, but his value scores weren’t showing the full effort he brought. M.J. Rice made numerous good hustle plays, finishing with a basket and a couple assists and solid defense in 14.6 minutes of play. The bench has now outperformed the starting 5 for 3 games in a row.
After KU’s loss Monday night to Baylor, the team’s third loss in a row in Waco, it dawned on me that perhaps Self isn’t winning as many of these tough contests as he used to. So, I decided to quickly look at KU’s recent record both as pregame underdogs as well as its record in true road games to see what conclusions we could draw. These are for games over the past three seasons, namely the ones which ended in the years 2021, 2022, and 2023.
According to KenPom lines, KU has been underdogs in 14 games over the past 3 years. Over that time, the Hawks’ record is 3-11. The wins have come against Duke (2023 season), vs. Baylor (2021), and at Texas Tech (2021). For the record, KU was pregame dogs in 2 games last season, at Baylor and at Texas (obviously both losses).
The average expected margin of loss was 3.1 points, indicating that although KU was underdogs it wasn’t by much. KU was expected to win 5.62 of these games, so a record of 3-11 is certainly disappointing. Running a quick simulation, a record of 3-11 in these games is about the 7th percentile. This is low, but not outside the range of “bad luck.” But it does coincide with what we’ve observed in recent seasons, namely that KU isn’t winning a segment of tough games it used to. Let’s change our dataset to look only at road games, and consider not only underdog games but also games which are projected to be close.
Filtering to the away games which are expected to be within single-digits, we may remember that winning these types of games used to be Self’s wheelhouse. Over these past 3 seasons, KU has played in 22 of these games and won 11 of them. This doesn’t seem too bad. They’ve been expected to win 12.29, so while they’ve underachieved, it isn’t by much.
Now let’s split between the games KU is projected to win vs. those they are projected to lose. In away games in which KU is favored but by fewer than 10 points, the Hawks are 10-4, bettering the expected record of 8.9-5.1. They’ve also overperformed KenPom expectation in these games by an average of 3.7 points. On the flip side, KU is 1-7 in games they’ve been single-digit road underdogs. On average, KU is underperforming expectation in these games by 5.2 points per game, and “should” have won 3.4 of these contests instead of just the 1. So, KU wins the close road games it is favored in but loses the close road games it is expected to lose.
Last, we’ll look again at the 22 game sample of road contests which are projected to be a single-digit final. In these 22 games, KU is outscoring its collective opponents by 2.2 points per game, even though they were expected to only outscore said opponents by 1.7 points per game. It’s tough to say KU is underachieving at all in road games. 2021 was somewhat of a “down year,” to be sure (yes, a down year as a 3-seed shows how absurd this program is). But as far as handling tough road environments, there’s nothing to indicate that KU has lost its ability to win tough road games.
Of course this exercise wouldn’t be complete without the reminder that KU won high-stress NCAA Tournament games (in fact, 6 in a row) last season. Although KU was favored in each game (therefore these results aren’t included in the first exercise), it took quite a bit of guts to win it all. I think I speak for all of Jayhawk fans that we are fine with losing a few more in the regular season if we make it up with close wins in March.
One of KU’s underdog wins came against Texas Tech in the pandemic year (2021). Ochai Agabji finished a layup with 13 seconds to go to put KU up 1, and Jalen Wilson blocked a shot and hustled to get the rebound at the horn to seal the victory.
Sometimes KU fans will produce hypothetical lineups, combining players from different eras to imagine how good such a team might be. For fun, here’s one:
PG – 1998 Ryan Robertson
SG – 2012 Elijah Johnson
SF – 2000 Kenny Gregory
PF – 2003 Nick Collison
C – 2017 Landen Lucas
This group of 5 features three juniors and two seniors, all of whom started and played significant minutes during their respective seasons. It includes a player (Nick Collison) who averaged 18.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG, as well as a secondary scoring option (Kenny Gregory) who went for 12.8 and 4.4. Its role players are also capable in their positions. This isn’t a bad lineup by any means. It would win the conference most years and likely be anywhere from a 1 to a 3-seed.
The reason this set of players was chosen is that it best corresponds to the 2023 starting lineup through 20 games. Jalen Wilson is having a season that is as good as Nick Collison’s 2003 season. Gradey Dick has been about as good as a junior Kenny Gregory. Harris’ season best compares to Elijah Johnson’s junior campaign, Adams to Lucas, and McCullar to Robertson. There are certainly stylistic differences between these lineups, but looking purely at player-value, they are nearly identical.
The 2023 team’s starters aren’t the problem. There have been recent slumps—namely from Harris and Adams—but in looking at the whole picture the starting 5 has been solid. Now, let’s look at some other names.
PF – 2006 Christian Moody
PF – 2015 Jamari Traylor
SF – 1997 Nick Bradford
PG – 2003 Jeff Hawkins
PF – 2018 Mitch Lightfoot
SG – 2001 Mario Kinsey
These six names represent the bench for the hypothetical team, and equate to the 2023 bench as follows. Ejiofor equates to (Sr.) Moody, Udeh to (Jr.) Traylor, Rice to (Fr.) Bradford, Yesufu to (Fr.) Hawkins, Clemence to (So.) Lightfoot, and Pettiford to (Fr.) Kinsey. This set of names doesn’t represent a ton of shooting or offensive skill. Some of these guys who developed into better players later in their careers (Lightfoot, Bradford) are underclassmen in this hypothetical roster.
If this hypothetical team existed, then the first subs off the bench would likely be Moody or Traylor for Lucas and Bradford or Hawkins for either Gregory/Johnson/Robertson. Such substitutions would hurt the team, which would have fewer scoring options and be harmed on the defensive end. The same thing is happening when the 2023 team goes to its bench.
Jalen Wilson carried the Jayhawks all game, and in doing so posted the team’s best performance of the season. Not only did he score 38 points on efficient offense, he did so by playing solid defense throughout all 45 minutes of game time.
Dejuan Harris was KU’s second-best player. Although he only scored 3 points, he produced points thanks to 11 value assists and played solid defense on K-State’s second-best player and opposing PG. Conversely, poor defensive outings by Gradey Dick and K.J. Adams contributed to negative value-games on their ledgers, despite them scoring 16 and 17 points respectively.
This was the bench’s 7th-straight negative-value outing.
While KU continues to win close games, it is in spite of its bench players. This phenomenon was discussed earlier in the season, and the discrepancy between its starters and bench has remained. Self has continued to play Bobby Pettiford and Joseph Yesufu as reserve guards, with an oft-injured M.J. Rice having not playing in the last three games. Zuby Ejiofor has been KU’s most-frequently-used bench big man in conference play (27 minutes), followed by Zach Clemence (21 minutes) and Cam Martin (6 minutes). Ernest Udeh has played in only 1 second of conference play. Yes, just 1 second. This came at the end of the Oklahoma State game when he was guarding the inbounds pass.
Since the last time we examined their performance, the KU bench has hardly changed in overall value it provides. After 10 games, the bench was positioned to earn about -3.00 WAR over a normalized 36-game schedule. With 17 games in the book, this has hardly budged. The 2023 bench is still the worst bench in the 20-year Self-era, and with no signs of improvement would be only the 6th bench to produce negative-WAR value over that time span.
One thing to consider is that there is a sort of floor to this number. The worse the bench plays, the less Self will go to it. Through 5 conference games, the starters have averaged 32.5 minutes per game each. This is Self maxing out starter-minutes. He cannot play them much more, considering foul trouble will occur at times and fatigue will set in. With limited bench minutes, two things should keep the number somewhat afloat. First, the bench has less collective time on the floor to perform poorly. Second, in limited minutes the bench players should have the energy to play each defensive possession 100%. The bench should be giving maximum effort when they are out there, thus maximizing their potential value on a possession basis.
There are various ways to quantify the dreadfulness of the bench rotation. We have used the WAR value metric to compare the 2023 bench to others in the Self-era. Now we will compare the 2023 starters – Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, and Adams – to the remainder of the team using Adj. Points AB +/-. This metric compares a player’s value, in points relative to a bubble-level opponent (about the 45th best team in D-1). Anything positive is quite good and should earn the player rotation minutes, with anything greater than +2.00 indicating a performance level that would start on almost any KU team.
The following numbers are thus presented per game, collectively divided between starters and bench.
The starting 5 produces an average difference of 13.16 points above a bubble team per game. They have been tremendous. This year’s starters have collectively out-done last season’s starting 5, which were +10.83 points above bubble per game. For the Missouri game, the starters were an absurd +39.84. They have only been below bubble-level as a group twice this season, first against Omaha (which was technically their worst opponent-adjusted performance) and second against Tennessee. Even then, these games were barely below the 0 threshold.
In contrast, the bench has played to a bubble-standard in only four games (23.5% of games). Ironically, its best game was against Omaha with a +5.02 performance, which is also the only time it has outperformed the starting 5. Its worst outing was against Southern Utah, in a game that was only close because of the reserves. Worse, the bench is trending downward. It hasn’t produced a positive outing since the Indiana game. Last season, on a team that featured seniors like Mitch Lightfoot, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and of course Remy Martin off the bench; it was collectively -0.52 and produced 17 games above bubble-standard (42.5%). This number was much higher at the end of the season when it counted, as the bench collectively produced an average game of +5.53 in the 9 games that made up the 2 tournaments. This was due to the great play of Remy, as well as a shortened rotation that played the senior reserves far more than the underclass backups. Suffice to say, the 2023 team doesn’t currently have that kind of fire-power waiting in the wings. It has underclassmen and transfers, none of whom have proven any capacity to be consistently great at the upper echelons of the D1 level.
Having a poor bench is no reason to despair. History has shown that teams with great starters can win in the Tournament despite having little help from its reserves. The 2012 runners-up had a very similar divide between a strong starting 5 and weak bench. However, even the 2012 bench had experience; Kevin Young was a redshirt junior and Conner Teahan a fifth-year senior. The 2016 team is another good comparison. It earned the number-one overall seed and made an Elite 8 on the backs of its experienced starters, getting little from its bench.
There are a few potential bright spots to consider when pondering the bench situation. First, is that KU has talented young players on its roster. It really only takes the development of one or two of the following by March for this situation to drastically improve: Pettiford, Yesufu, Rice, Ejiofor, Udeh, Clemence. If KU can comfortably play any of these guys 10 minutes or so and expect a consistent performance, it can better maintain leads that its starting 5 works to build. The second consideration doesn’t have to do with the bench, but with the makeup of the starting 5. The starters are all capable of playing a heavy-load, thus reducing the negative-impact the bench has collectively brought. K.J. Adams is far more like a wing than a post in terms of fitness and durability, meaning that even the 5-spot needs fewer bench minutes this season than it historically does.
Lastly, where should the team go from here? In comparing Per 100 points above bubble, there is good reason to like the potential development of Udeh and Ejiofor. These two have clearly been superior to other bench-players, particularly the other 5 men. While Ejiofor has gotten in games consistently, Udeh has been relegated to DNPs of late. Perhaps this should be reexamined, particularly if Clemence continues to defend at a poor level.
There hasn’t been much value from the reserve guards/wings. Injuries have plagued all four (with Cuffe still out), and even when healthy none have provided consistent value. The team loses scoring ability, size, and defensive skill when it goes to the bench and gains little. Shifting K.J. down to the 4 when Jalen is out is honestly a worthy consideration.
Jalen Wilson’s stingy defense won him his 7th game-MVP of the season. It was also his best individual game since the Missouri game. The other starters all performed very well.
The bench guards Pettiford and Yesufu gave up too many points on defense. Backup 5-men, Ejiofor and Clemence, had positive games in their limited minutes. For Clemence, he scored his first points of the season on an assisted layup in the second half.
Charting the Hawks 