Christian Braun about to finish on an and-one. He earned his 8th team-MVP thanks to excellent defense on Saturday.
Game Summary:
Kansas won a defensive slugfest on Senior Day, and it was Christian Braun who played the best defense of anyone. He only gave up 3 points, while filling up the box score with a steal, a block, and multiple rebounds. The best offensive players for Kansas were David McCormack (1.34 PPP_af) and Jalen Wilson (1.80 PPP_af). They each got big buckets and made clutch free throws when points were limited.
Seniors Jalen Coleman-Lands and Mitch Lightfoot each had positive performances as well. Although there were only 4 points between the two of them, they each defended well. K.J. Adams had an offensive rebound and 1/2 FT to add nearly a point of value after adjustments. Neither Zach Clemence nor Chris Teahan recorded a stat in their few minutes of play.
Dejuan Harris had a neutral game characterized by excellent defensive plays (blocks, steals), some great passing (had 5 of KU’s 10 charted assists with 0 turnovers); on the other hand he only scored 3 points and did give up some easy baskets due to his slight frame. Remy Martin had good activity on offense to start, but lost his man a few times and gave up Texas’ first 5 points. Joe Yesufu didn’t do much in his few minutes of play.
Ochai Agbaji is officially slumping, as he recorded his third consecutive negative-value game. He seems to be pressing, forcing bad shots on offense while reverting to forgetful moments on D. He’s now down to 41.1% from 3 on the year. On the plus side, he is rebounding better than he did to start the year. This shows he is playing hard. Once the shots start to fall again, he will be someone who can carry this team far in the Tournament.
The TEAM score was helped by KU getting to overtime. But its still indicative of the Agbaji slump. Thankfully; Braun, Wilson, and McCormack all had solid outings to help get KU a win for the 39th consecutive Senior Day/Night game.
There are multiple ways a player can add value to his team in a basketball game. Attempting to capture these different ways quantitatively can be difficult. If you look at an advanced season box score, you’ll notice that most of the stats are listed in rates instead of totals or per game.
College Basketball Reference, 2022 Kansas Jayhawks through 30 games
So let’s take two players and compare them, Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun. They have similar minutes played, PER, and TS%. As we continue to move left to right, we see that Och’s 3-pt. attempt rate is much higher, although CB gets to the line more (FT rate). Agbaji is credited with more points produced, CB is a better rebounder on both ends, a better assister, and also gets a higher proportion of steals and blocks. Ochai has a lower turnover percentage, and a higher usage.
These numbers are all wonderful to have, and do tell us quite a bit. They are also a mess to organize and make sense of. For instance, PER (Player Efficiency Rating) rates how efficient players are, with higher been better. It takes into account all offensive stats.
Notice we see that David McCormack is leading in this category. This may be surprising, but remember he shoots FT’s quite well and also grabs a ton of offensive rebounds. His turnover rate is also fairly low. Still, we see he is shooting worse than players like Agbaji and Braun, and has a far lower assist rate than the guards.
What if we wanted to compare D-Mac’s offensive rebounding rate (which is very high) to a guard’s assist rate? In other words, is he adding more or less value through his rebounds than Dejuan Harris is through his assist? You can’t look at the raw numbers, because they are measuring two different skills. But certainly there is a way to see this.
Represented below is the attempt to do just that. Breaking down offense, we’ve organized all offensive plays into one of three categories: Finishing, Handling, and Boarding.
Finishing – This measures how well and frequently a player scores. It takes into account his shooting percentage and volume, as well as if the play was assisted or not. It includes measurements of both production and efficiency.
Handling – This measures how well a player takes care of the ball and distributes it. It uses assists and turnovers to drive the result.
Boarding – This looks primarily at offensive rebounding, the main driver in a team getting second-chance opportunities. It also includes the occasional “save” which rescues a team’s offensive possession following a teammate’s poor pass that should have resulted in a turnover.
This chart is represented in Points Above Bubble, the value currency most frequently used on this website. This chart is showing PAB per 100 possessions, so it ignores any value related to endurance/stamina/etc. and purely rates each player on the same possession basis. There are a few interesting results:
The best offensive skill set for KU this season has been Agbaji’s ability to score (Finishing). He is shooting 42.2% from 3, and also has a 61.3% TS% (using Sports Reference’s calculations). In all, he is adding 7.29 Points above bubble over the course of 100 possessions (PAB/100) due to his ability to score.
The second-best offensive skill set for KU this season is David McCormack’s offensive rebounding. He is adding 5.17 PAB/100 just from his ability to get second and third-chance opportunities. And while some may wish to discount his rebounding ability by claiming it is due to poor shooting (“he just gets his own misses”), this doesn’t look to be too true as he has a Finishing score of +1.59. When D-Mac is out there, he is the team’s second-best offensive weapon.
The best at “Handling,” which is basically maximizing assists and minimizing turnovers, is Dejuan Harris. At +3.06, is far better at the true point guard skills than other guards. But notice even despite his strong Handling score, his lack of Finishing and Boarding makes his offensive value below bubble-player level on offense.
These numbers are not position-adjusted. So we expect to see the guards with positive Handling numbers but negative Boarding numbers, and the posts to have negative Handling numbers but positive Boarding numbers. But take a look at K.J. Adams. A solid offensive rebounder, K.J. has also done a decent job handling the ball for a 4/5 man. It is his scoring (Finishing) which has made his score so low.
In summary, different players will bring different things to the table. For KU’s offense in 2022, they are getting great scoring marks from Agbaji, Braun, and even Coleman-Lands. Harris is the best ball-handler, although the other point guards add some value here. And inside, David McCormack and K.J. Adams are beasts at winning additional opportunities. Jalen Wilson is positive in all features, being balanced at finishing, handling, and boarding.
Jalen Wilson played fine defense to earn his 5th team-MVP game of the season
Game Summary:
KU struggled to put TCU away, but ultimately prevailed thanks to a late defensive stop (Dejuan Harris block). Jalen Wilson was the team’s best player, only allowing 7 points on defense while grabbing 9 defensive rebounds and forcing 3 TCU turnovers (1 live-ball steal, 2 dead-ball). This defensive effort overshadowed a quiet offensive night, as he only took 12.6% of his team’s shots while in the game. He did produce over 10 points of offense on an efficient 1.94 points per possession used.
Dejuan Harris had his best game in some time, scoring 11 with 4 assists on 1.30 points per possession used. He also played solid defense, giving up 9 points but also coming away with a key block on TCU’s Miles with 4 seconds to play. Had TCU converted it would have been a 1 point game, but the block sealed KU’s win. Christian Braun was efficient on offense (1.95 points per possession) to earn a quiet, but positive, value score. Mitch Lightfoot and Zach Clemence were both basically neutral players.
On the negative side of the ledger, Ochai Agbaji turned a solid first-half into another high-volume shot-output game which harmed his team’s chances. The 22 points were good, but he had 11 misses and 3 turnovers to get those points. His 0.84 points per possession used was well below the team’s 1.07 for the game. Defensively, he allowed 13 points, the most of any Jayhawk last night.
David McCormack didn’t shoot well from the field, but was solid again from the FT line. He did give up some baskets inside, which cost him. Joseph Yesufu had a poor shooting outing, as did Remy Martin in limited playing time. Jalen Coleman-Lands had a few nice hustle rebounds, but gave up one basket while missing his only shot attempt. K.J. Adams’ only impact was fouling a 3-point shooter to allow TCU to cut a 6-point deficit to 3.
The TEAM score of +1.17 was KU’s third-consecutive game under +3. Based on opponent, location, and pace; KU’s offense did slightly better than its defense did; but both sides of the ball showed a mediocre performance for a team of KU’s caliber.
Since beginning to chart KU games during the 2019 season, it’s become clear that without seeing the full picture that the defensive stats (such as points allowed) provide, it becomes difficult to truly see the impact of particular players.
There are a few axioms for charting basketball stats that this website follows, including:
Offense and defense are equally valuable. Teams will have an equal number of offensive and defensive possessions.
Offensive and defensive rebounds are of equal value, because getting a defensive rebound is merely preventing your opponent from grabbing an offensive rebound themselves.
An offensive rebound neutralizes a missed shot. If someone rebounds his own miss, and puts it back in, it neither adds nor takes away value than if he’d made the initial shot.
Similarly a turnover and forced turnover are equally inverse. If a player has 3 turnovers on offense but forces 3 turnovers on defense, he’s had a neutral game in this regard.
Similarly all misses are equal. Whether or not an offensive rebound occurs is up to the hustle of the players on the court (including the shooter).
There are three aspects to scoring: setting up the score, positioning the score, and finishing the score. To relate this to an assisted basket, the assist man sets up the basket with a nice pass, the man who scores must get himself ready to catch the pass, and in turn that same player must have the ability to score by making the shot. With an unassisted basket, the first part of the score (the set up) is not done through a pass but through some type of agile move by the scorer.
The whole point is that there is a systematic way of assessing player value here that avoids bias and selective memory. Now this system also discounts clutchness, or the ability to play well in high-leverage situations. Unlike many in advanced statistics, Charting the Hawks doesn’t disagree that clutchness exists. It almost certainly does. But there are other reasons to discount it for our purposes that we don’t need to get into.
Having said that, and this isn’t to pick on anyone else, but it’s tough not to notice how bias and selective memory pervades the minds of fans and pundits alike. After each game, this website rates the game performance of each Jayhawk (using Adj. PPG +/-). It doesn’t just rank each player, but actually tells you how well or poorly a Jayhawk did in that game as compared to a hypothetical KU-level replacement player (i.e. “bubble” player).
Of course, there are other sites that do the same, albeit without any system. This ends up getting them into trouble. Matt Tait of the Lawrence Journal World took over the Keegan Ratings after longtime LJW Sports Editor Tom Keegan left the paper. It is now called the Kusports.com ratings, although the rankings are based the same as Keegan’s were before. The rater makes his subjective analysis of who played well and who didn’t, then ranks them from best to worst for each game. These ratings are then accumulated for the total season.
Last night’s loss to TCU was ugly to be sure, but rating Zach Clemence as KU’s most effective Jayhawk was a bit far-fetched. Tait’s rankings are represented below, so that we can compare to what a more objective rating system would show. Here’s how Tait ranks them.
Zach Clemence
Jalen Wilson
Ochai Agbaji
Joe Yesufu
Christian Braun
Dejuan Harris, Jr.
Mitch Lightfoot
Jalen Coleman-Lands
Remy Martin
David McCormack
K.J. Adams
We won’t go through each player’s write-up, but considering that KU lost by 10 points (which isn’t great, but not the worst ever) and not 30+, it’s odd to think that each of the other 10 players who played more than 7 minutes had less of a positive effect than Clemence’s block and defensive rebound did in 26 seconds.
We will go through a few of the outrageous differences, however. Let’s start with CtH’s most valuable player in this game, David McCormack, who Tait ranks at #10!
CtH’s ranking of the 3/1 TCU game
McCormack had a score of +8.22, meaning that after factoring each made shot, missed shot, free throws, rebounds, steals, turnovers, forced turnovers, defensive possessions that did or did not lead to points, as well as minutes played; he was 8.22 points better than the average KU-level replacement 5-man would likely be. This may seem surprising on a night where he was 2-6 from the field; then again by selecting the stat 2-6 on FG’s, we’ve already biased the entirety of McCormack’s performance.
McCormack also went 7-9 on FT’s, to finish with 11 points. Given that he had 6 official offensive rebounds against 1 turnover, his offensive rating was 118.9 on Torvik with 32.2 usage. This is a very solid offensive outing. Note that this also ignores something the video shows, that McCormack hustled to recovery two loose balls on offense that would have been turnovers on bad passes from his teammates (at about the 18:06 mark and 6:52 mark of the 2H). All said, his activity winning possessions and FT shooting outdid the few missed layups he had in close.
Remembering missed layups is the perfect example of selective memory. Here’s Tait’s write-up that tells us more about Tait’s ability to rate players than McCormack’s actual performance on Tuesday:
McCormack never got going in this one, missing so many close-range shots and struggling to gain control of himself throughout. He finished with decent numbers — 13 points and 8 rebounds — but he played just 21 minutes and got so many of those rebounds by badly missing in close.
According to the official stats, McCormack missed 2 lay-ups in the game, one at the 17:57 mark and one at the 16:16 mark of the 2H. It’s tough to agree that D-Mac missed “so many” close-range shots. Now he did miss 2 jumpers inside 8 feet as well, but these were contested. Either way, that is what stuck in Tait’s mind the most, so that is why McCormack was seen as KU’s 10th best player out of 11.
Yet after discounting McCormack’s night, Tait realizes that 13 (actually 11) & 8 aren’t actually terrible. This is the first sign he is starting to come to terms with his own bias. Unfortunately, he doubles down and provides a few more throw away lines that attempt to justify his ranking but only show us his ignorance. Yes, McCormack’s 21 minutes were not as many as he’s had in prior games, but it’s tough to say that limited minutes should discount a player’s performance in your rankings when your top player is someone who played in 1 total possession the entire game.
Another canard is that McCormack’s high offensive rebounding rate is due to him missing close shots. I read/hear this so often, that I might go back through the game logs to see how frequently this actually occurs. For starters, it’s a way to discount the fact that David McCormack is leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (OR%), at 20.4%. In other words, he rebounds 1/5 of his team’s misses while he’s on the court.
Tait is appealing to this bit of conventional wisdom, however of his 6 offensive rebounds Tuesday night, only 1 was off his own miss. The other 5 were off a Jalen Wilson missed jumper (5:15 1H), a Dejuan Harris missed 3-pointer (17:58, 2H), a Jalen Wilson missed jumper after a block (15:06 2H), an Ochai Agbaji missed jumper (6:55 2H), and a Christian Braun missed layup that was blocked (5:58, 2H). The only rebound off his own miss came at the 5:06 mark of the 2H, and it was a miss on a post-up jumper. This rebound would lead to Jalen Wilson driving and getting fouled, proving further it added value to the possession.
Tait isn’t close to correct in what he’s saying. But even if he were, remember the axiom that an offensive rebound neutralizes the mal-value of a miss. Even if McCormack were blowing layups out of proportion, in getting back his misses he is not harming his team one bit since KU retains possession. His 112.2 ORtg (and 117.8 Conf ORtg) on KenPom agree here.
Another axiom is that all misses are equal, namely that it doesn’t matter if a possession ends in a missed layup or missed deep 3, the value of the possession is still 0 points. Let’s explain why that is. In basketball, teams are attempting to get the most efficient shot, which occurs closer to the rim than further from it. McCormack is the best on the team at getting close shots, using his size, length, and skill set to get a bulk of shots in close. Yes, him missing these shots is frustrating. But it is quantitatively no different than when some other Jayhawk misses a deep shot late in the possession because he isn’t large or skilled enough to get a close one in 30 seconds of the shot clock. Selective memory only recalls the missed bunnies he has; it discounts his ability to get so many close shots. And he still makes enough of them (while also shooting well from the line) to be a solid offensive contributor.
Tait also had this to say about McCormack:
Give him credit for fighting to get them back, but had it not been for a 7-of-9 night at the free throw line, McCormack’s numbers would’ve matched the way he looked in this one. It’s going to be real interesting to see how he looks against that big, athletic TCU front line in the rematch.
Tait does finally realize the value of winning offensive rebounds back, yet he unfortunately discounts the skill of shooting well from the line. 7/9 is 78%, which isn’t astronomically higher than his season percentage (70.8%) and his below his percentage from last season (79.8%). McCormack’s energy and hustle got him to the line, where he converted.
But it was interesting to see the last bit, the one praising TCU’s front line. TCU certainly dominated the Hawks on the glass, 47-35. McCormack’s countpart, Eddie Lampkin, had 9 rebounds (4 offensive). This would make it seem like McCormack was giving up more than he was scoring. However this was not the case at all.
Lampkin finished with only 2 points. Other interior players, including Xavier Cork (8 points), did have solid games. But this is where charting defensive plays helps. Without seeing how KU’s defensive possessions went, we are only left guessing as to how each player performed on defense. Let’s look back at Lampkin’s only bucket. It was early in the game, when he hit an elbow-jumper with 17:39 in the 1H. It occurred not when D-Mac was in the game, but when Mitch Lightfoot was. Lightfoot was clearly out of position, over-hedging the ball screen and allowing his man to slip and have an uncontested look.
After charting each possession, we see that McCormack’s defensive contributions only led TCU scoring on two different plays, first when he overhelped in the first half and forced Christian Braun to block out his man at the rim (leaving CB’s man uncontested for a put-back) and second when he goaltended a contested layup that didn’t appear to be going in (on a play where CB fouled the driver for an and-1). In 21 minutes, that was it. Needless to conclude, this was a good performance on defense by D-Mac. (As a comparison, Mitch Lightfoot and K.J. Adams combined for 13 points allowed in 19 minutes of play, far more than McCormack gave up in slightly more minutes).
Now for the season, McCormack’s defensive efforts have been rather poor. He is allowing 15.6 points per 60 possessions, which is second-worst on the team behind Mitch Lightfoot (of players playing at least 10% of possible minutes). After accounting for his rebounding, blocks, steals, and forced turnovers; he grades out as a -0.63 per game defender. He’s struggled on this end his whole career, and this season is no different. But he does have solid games from time-to-time.
On the other hand, Ochai Agbaji gave up 23 points in his worst defensive outing of the season. This wouldn’t be known if not for charting the game. While Agbaji will likely bounce back on Thursday, defensive performances tend to fluctuate more than offensive ones, there’s no possible universe in which Ochai was the third-best Jayhawk and McCormack the 10th-best Jayhawk on Tuesday. None.
The last thing I’d like to talk about is the season standings that accumulate each game and appear at the bottom of each Kusports.com Ratings write-up. For one, I’m not sure how the totals are arrived at. It seems, although this could be wrong, that each player receives points in inverse to the number of players that game. So if KU plays 10 players in a game, the #1 player of that game gets 10 points, the #2 player of that game gets 9 points, and so on. But this would only work as a sensible system if every game saw the same number of players play. For instance in games where only 8 players play, the #1 player is only getting 8 points, not 10.
A second problem is that there have been a number of missed games due to injury, illness, suspension, or coaching decision. So while the season standings are an accumulation, it isn’t true that each player has played an equal amount of games.
To his credit, Tait attempts to control for this by putting superscripts to indicate that a certain player his missed one or more games for some reason. But the effect is to make it look clunky. There are six Jayhawk regulars who have missed action because of non-coaching decision reasons, and each has a different symbol or letter to reflect this. For instance Wilson has a bullet-point to indicate he missed three games due to suspension, Agbaji has a + sign (although in the notes it has become a bullet-point as well), and other players have a letter, either x, y, z, or b.
Either way, this leads to the question of how to account for player value (which is what the KUsports.com ratings are trying to do) when players play different numbers of games. As an example, Jalen Wilson didn’t provide any value for the team when he was sitting the bench serving his suspension. So in some sense he should see his value diminished. On the other hand, a per game rating allows us to project his value better (since presumably he won’t be serving any more suspensions).
Charting the Hawks does provide both numbers against a hypothetical bubble player…per game and total. See 2022 here. In addition, I’ll add a third category below, or points above average. The average college basketball player is quite a bit worse (remember there are 358 teams) than your typical KU reserve.
Total Pts +/-
This chart shows the difference in rating, depending on how you define a “replacement player.” For instance, Dajuan Harris has been worse than the bubble-player that KU would expect to be able to recruit and develop. But he has been better than the average D-1 rotation player. So a team of Dajuan Harris-level players would likely be above .500 (depending on strength of schedule, of course), but would not likely be a tournament-level team.
This chart also shows that, even despite playing far more minutes, Harris still grades out worse than Remy Martin no matter how you compare the two. Harris has played the third-most minutes on the team, so his Pts AA is a larger increase to Pts AB than Martin’s change is. Yet when we compare Harris and Yesufu in Pts AA, we see that Harris’s additional minutes make him the better performer over Yesufu. So it is probably good to look at both numbers. Per game or per possession ratings can also help clarify value.
D-Mac had a solid game on the offensive glass, and earned his 5th team-MVP of the season
Game Summary:
In an ugly game, David McCormack was actually a very solid contributor for Kansas, earning 8 second-chance opportunities for Kansas on the offensive end (although he had trouble finishing just as his teammates did). He also prevented his opponent from doing much damage scoring the ball, but failed to earn as many defensive rebounds as he should have. In all, despite the awkwardness and missed layups, D-Mac’s energy and presence helped KU last night.
Similarly, Jalen Wilson had a solid defensive game and added enough on offense to be on the plus side of the value-ledger. It wasn’t his man who was scoring the points for TCU. The other Jalen, JCL, played very well in his 6:32 of game time. Finishing with 2 3-pointers on 2/4 shooting, he also grabbed 3 rebounds (2 defensive, 1 offensive) without giving up points on defense.
The only other positive Jayhawk was Zach Clemence, who blocked a shot and then finished the possession ripping down a rebound as TCU kept getting second-chance looks. He had to leave the game due to a cut above his eye.
Hovering around 0 value were Christian Braun and Joseph Yesufu. CB had trouble finishing inside, but he played solid defense for the most part. Yesufu had success getting to the cup (2/2 FT’s getting fouled on a layup to go along with a made FG on a drive), but also gave up 5 points to offset what he scored.
Mitch Lightfoot started strong, scoring KU’s first 5 points, but his poor defensive positioning and rebounding soon cost KU. One of his replacements as a bench big-man, K.J. Adams, also had a rough night on defense. Guards Remy Martin and Dejuan Harris had mediocre games, with Harris doing a good job spreading the ball around (7 assists, 1 turnover) but little else (0 points scored, 10 points allowed). Martin hit a midrange jumper and gave up a 3, along with a missed shot and turnover. Overall, not a great game but not terrible.
The player who easily had his worst outing was Ochai Agbaji. Although he finished with 13 points, this was done on 18 shot attempts. He finished with a 0.56 Off PPP_af (this website’s version of ORating). His defense was even worse, as he gave up 23 points. Some of this was losing his man in the half-court, some was due to good defense that scored on, and some was due to his poor transition recovery. In all, the energy he has been expending on offense has cost him on the other end. The last two games Ochai has taken 38.7% and 28.8% of the team’s shots while in the game, upping his shot frequency to 27.4% on the season. This number doesn’t taken into account the type of shot, meaning it doesn’t account for how much more work Ochai is doing to get these shots up, many of which are unassisted opportunities. Simply put, Agbaji needs more help on offense, and needs to be more patient when he does have the ball.
For the team, this was their second-worst game of the season and the 7th game below bubble-level for KU. The Hawks got crushed on the glass and inside the paint, losing the rebounding battle 47-35 and shooting 35% from inside the arc while TCU shot 48.1%. The wings weren’t great at rebounding, but it was the guards (1 total rebound between Harris, Martin, and Yesufu in 47 combined minutes) that didn’t help out at all.
KU gets TCU tomorrow (March 3rd). Expect a far better effort on the glass, and a better game plan at getting Ochai better looks.
CB had his 7th team-MVP of the season at Waco in a loss
Game Summary:
The road Jayhawks got off to a nice start, before allowing Baylor to get back into the game at halftime. The second half was back-and-forth until Baylor took control down the stretch. Kansas had trouble limiting the pick-n-roll options of Baylor and didn’t finish well at the rim on offense.
The wings were great again. Christian Braun’s 17 points and 4 assists produced far more than the 9 points he gave up on defense. Ochai was even more productive with 27 points and 4 assists, with 11 allowed on defense. CB gets the slight advantage in overall value this game due to his far higher offensive and slightly better defensive efficiencies.
On the other end, the two main posts had dreadful defensive outings. David McCormack gave up 25 points due to poor positioning on ball screens, slow recoveries, overhelping, and fouling. Mitch Lightfoot finished with 4 fouls in 3 1/2 minutes, giving up 7 points without even registering a shot on the offensive side. Dejuan Harris had a questionable defensive outing, but it was his offensive game that was worse. Given 7 assists in the official box score, upon closer examination it was clear that most of these were too generous, leaving him with even less of an offensive impact than he might have had otherwise.
The return of Remy Martin was accompanied by nice offense (5 points on 3 shots) and poor defense (5 points allowed). He drew a charge and almost a second (that was called a flop warning instead).
Fatigue seemed to set in down the stretch, as all 5 KU starters played 30+ minutes. Remy was the only bench player with more than 10 minutes, at 11. Despite solid performances either in this game or in recent weeks; Yesufu, Coleman-Lands, Adams, and Clemence combined for only 12 minutes total. The attrition battle showed. KU finished 7-28 from 3 and 17-42 (barely 40%) from inside the arc. Kansas had a 1.27 offensive rating at the 5:30 mark in the 1st half, and then went 0.89 the rest of the way.
The TEAM performance of 2.59 was lower than it otherwise would have been aside from the fouling in the final minute. Still, KU had a chance to keep the game close in the final 4 minutes and could not. Once again, fatigue is a plausible factor. With Martin back and KU at 11 healthy scholarship players, the bench is something that needs to be used.
CB had his 6th team-MVP game, and his first of conference play
Game Summary
An offensive explosion pushed the Jayhawks to 102 points in a 78 possession game (1.31 PPP). Accounting for opponent, location, and tempo; it was the team’s fourth-best outing (Missouri, Iona, St. John’s). The total score of +14.69 was KU’s third consecutive +10 or greater game score. For the season 16/27 games have been +10 or better for KU.
On the individual side, the best overall performance was from Christian Braun, who played solid defense on a night where Kansas gave up 83. Lightfoot and Yesufu were also good on both ends. Other positive performers included Wilson, Agbaji (who outscored a poor defensive game), and Coleman-Lands.
David McCormack had his best overall game of the season with a value score above +14.00 thanks to nearly 19 points of offensive production and only 3 points allowed on defense. Joe Yesufu and Jalen Wilson also had solid games. Ochai Agbaji’s offensive output of nearly 20 points produced was offset by allowing 17 points on defense. He did poorly on the possession side of the ledger (had more misses and turnovers than rebounds and steals) which contributed to a negative overall score.
The team’s +14.81 score is currently its 6th best performance of the season.
Ochai Agbaji had his best outing since the Texas Tech double OT game, and earned his 10th team-MVP of the year
Game Summary:
Kansas got solid outings from multiple players against Oklahoma State, with Agbaji adding the most value in the game. Och was active on both ends (had 10 defensive rebounds/steals/forced TO’s) to contribute over 9 points in value for the game. David McCormack had a double-double with 12 points and 12 rebounds, and Dejuan Harris also finished with 12 points to go along with 5 assists and solid defense.
Zach Clemence got credit for 6 rebounds to offset an off shooting night. His energy and skill warrant more time moving forward.
Unlike last game where they were the two best players, Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson were not as sharp. CB managed to add some value, making him 21/25 with a positive-value game. J-Wil missed some layups with the game already decided, hurting his offensive production value.
Joseph Yesufu didn’t do much on offense despite playing over 22 minutes. He balanced an assist with a turnover, but it was his 1/5 shooting that affected his score.
Neither K.J. Adams nor Bobby Pettiford played long enough to record much activity. Adams fought for a loose ball to get a tie-up (that went OSU’s way) and Pettiford had a post feed to McCormack that got him an assist in the official box score.
The walk-ons made the final score closer than it should have been. A team score of +10.34 is lower than it otherwise would have been. For the game, the team’s offensive and defensive efficiency (opponent-adjusted) were each above-bubble.
Kansas was carried to victory by Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun, the only two Hawks to finish with above-bubble numbers for the game. Wilson produced over 22 points of value on excellent efficiency, while only giving up 8 points on defense. Braun was not quite as productive or efficient (although he was still very solid), but his defense was even stronger than Wilson’s (7 points allowed, more rebounds/steals/forced TO’s).
Zach Clemence came back from injury to help spark the Kansas comeback. He did finish with a negative score, which is more due to the fickle nature of a one-game moment than in how he played. He knocked down an assisted three, grabbed a few rebounds, and played solid defense for the most part. The only downsides to his performance was the missed free throws and a late and deep three that his opponent hit during OU’s desperation spurt during the final minute. If Zach gets more minutes and plays like he did, he will start putting up positive game scores.
The other Jayhawks were negative performers. David McCormack started out strong, but his defense (16 points allowed) negated his inside scoring presence. Neither Mitch Lightfoot nor K.J. Adams did much aside from Adams’s strong defense on the final possession of the game.
Ochai Agbaji had trouble scoring with the tight defense Oklahoma was applying. He forced quite a few bad shots, hurting his efficiency and thus his value. Dejuan Harris was okay at times, but his weakness handling the ball in the final seconds almost cost KU the game. As a PG, he has to be stronger with his team ahead in the final moments. Coleman-Lands and Yesufu did next to nothing in their limited minutes.
The team score of +0.16 places their performance right on the bubble-line. It was the team’s worst performance since Kentucky and worst conference game since the 1-point win against Iowa State at home.
The four non-post starters played 39, 38, 38, and 37 minutes. The reserve guards played less than 8 minutes, while D-Mac/Lightfoot/Adams/Clemence split 40 minutes at the 5. Using the adjusted HHI formula, this was KU’s most concentrated lineup of the season (0.781). Self tends to sub quite a bit less in close games, but his rotations Saturday were extreme.
Charting the Hawks 