Power Ratings for 2022. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
After a decade plus of irrelevance, Coach Lance Leipold has the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks football team at 6-5, and eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 2008. This achievement occurred a few weeks back when the Hawks won their 6th game of the season against Oklahoma St. Since that time, other teams have become bowl eligible, leading us to examine this question.
For more background, being “bowl eligible” is different from receiving a bowl invite. Being bowl eligible just means you have a 6-win season (in a 12-game schedule). Receiving a bowl invite occurs when a specific bowl invites your team to play in it. Theoretically, a team can be bowl eligible but not make a bowl.
This happens, but not often. There are so many bowls nowadays that most 6-win teams make a bowl. In 2019, the last regular season before COVID, the only bowl-eligible team to not get an invite was 6-6 Toledo. There were 79 bowl-eligible teams for 78 spots, and the Rockets drew the short straw.
Let’s tie this back to Kansas. At 6-5, Kansas is bowl eligible but might finish 6-6 if it loses in its final regular season game. At 6-6, Kansas could theoretically find itself in the same position as 2019 Toledo. But is this a realistic scenario?
Let’s break it down. There are 41 bowl games this season (excluding the National Championship), meaning there will be 82 teams which play in a bowl game from December 16 to January 2. Right now, there are 75 teams which are currently bowl eligible (i.e. have 6+ wins). With 1 week to go*, there are 18 teams which can still become bowl eligible. Two of these teams play each other (Miami OH and Ball State). This gets us to 76 bowl eligible teams. If each of the 16 remaining teams wins, this would mean 92 bowl eligible teams! In this scenario, 10 teams with at least 6 wins would not go to a bowl game.
But this won’t happen. Georgia Tech needs to beat Georgia in Athens, for instance (ESPN gives the Yellow Jackets a 1.3% chance of winning). Even if this upset occurred, other very unlikely events would need to happen (i.e. Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Auburn over Alabama, UTEP over UTSA, etc.).
Using ESPN’s odds of victory for the final week(s), bowl-possible teams are expected to win 6.22 games. Doing some quick math, this means that there are an expected 81.22 teams that will be bowl eligible following the regular season out of 82. Or it is more likely that a 5-win team will receive a bowl invite than a 6-win team will be left home.
But we can go further and sim the final week(s) to see how likely it is that more than 82 teams become bowl eligible. Running 100 sims of the final games, we find it roughly that there are more than 82 bowl-eligible teams only 30% of the time. But most of these instances are exactly 83 teams. Only 10% of the time are there 84 or more bowl-eligible teams. And only 3% of the time do 85 teams or more find themselves with 6+ wins.
It is in Kansas’ interests for the 5-6 teams playing this weekend to lose. This includes teams like Auburn, Missouri (duh), and Georgia Tech. 70% of the time, Kansas will have nothing to worry about.
But what about the 30% of the time where more than 82 teams earn bowl eligibility? Are the Jayhawks in danger of becoming 2019 Toledo? First note that of the instances where there are more than 82 teams which become bowl eligible, most are with only 1 additional team (83 total teams). Only 10% of the time are there expected to be 2 or more bowl-eligible teams which stay home.
The worst scenario would be a great final week for the bowl-questionable teams. But even in the worst case, Kansas should be able to rest easy. In 2018, there were a total of four bowl-eligible teams which stayed home. This is so unlikely to happen in 2022 that it didn’t make the graph above, occurring only 1 out of 100 sims. But in case it did, let’s look at history. Who were the teams left out in 2018?
Louisiana-Monroe (6-6), Miami OH (6-6), Southern Miss (6-5), Wyoming (6-6). All non-Power-5 schools.
Which 6-6 teams made bowl games that season?
Tulane, BYU, Wake Forest, Minnesota, TCU, Baylor, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma State. Mostly Power-5 schools, with a solid Independent and AAC team also qualifying.
Clearly, 6-6 teams are ranked in terms of importance when the bowls decide who to invite and who not to. Even if there are 84, 85, or even 86 bowl-eligible teams; the Kansas Jayhawks will almost certainly get the nod ahead of a 6-6 Louisiana or Southern Miss or Miami OH.
The odds KU doesn’t make a bowl are probably something like 1 in 10,000. Nothing to fret over. KU is going bowling this season.
But not all bowls are equal. The Big 12 has 6 current bowl ties to non-NY6/CFP. The First Responder (University Park, TX), Guaranteed Rate (Phoenix), Liberty (Memphis), Texas (Houston), Cheez-It (Orlando), and Alamo (San Antonio). A Kansas team that went 7-5 (4-5 in conference) would get a better bowl than one than went 6-6 (3-6). As if we needed any other reason to cheer for a win on Saturday.
Allen Fieldhouse has been redecorated. The 2022 banner has now been raised, so it seems like a good time to review the National Championship games in terms of player value.
Game Summary:
David McCormack was the game MVP for the Jayhawks. His value above bubble was added in the final two minutes. He made a put-back off his own miss to put KU up 70-69, walled up Armando Bacot to force a turnover, and then made the final basket of the game over Brady Manek to extend the score to 72-69. These three possessions made the difference.
Remy Martin was just below McCormack in terms of player value. He hit 3 huge second-half 3’s as well as a driving layup, with each shot answering Carolina runs which had brought the Tar Heels closer to the lead. Martin was KU’s best player in the tournament, adding 4.11 PPG above bubble during the 6 tournament games.
Christian Braun shook off a tough first half to finish in the black. His tough contest on the final shot made it impossible for Carolina to hit a miracle 3 to tie the game. Mitch Lightfoot fouled a lot, but when he was in he did enough to add value. He made his own shot, grabbed an offensive rebound, and forced a turnover to balance out the 3 FT’s he gave up. Ochai Agbaji didn’t record a counting play after his missed layup with 5:53 to play. but throughout the game, he did more good than harm, particularly in the first half when other Jayhawks were struggling. K.J. Adams contributed one play, forcing UNC into a turnover in the first half. Jalen Coleman-Lands grabbed a rebound for his contribution.
Jalen Wilson turned away from a dreadful first half to contribute to a comeback for the ages. Although he finished below bubble, he was very close to neutral. Dejuan Harris had the worse game of any Jayhawk, with his best stretch coming at the beginning of the second half. His worse blunder was stepping on the sidelines with 4 seconds left to give the Heels a final shot to tie. But by only scoring 2 points on 5 shots, he was KU’s weakest link in the game.
The TEAM score of +7.29 was KU’s 11th consecutive positive, above-bubble performance. While not the best overall game of the season, it was enough to get the win and with it KU’s 6th banner.
David McCormack had his 7th team-MVP game of the season
Game Summary:
David McCormack had 25 points Saturday against Villanova, but none bigger were the 2 he got after rebounding a Christian Braun miss with 5:50 to go. This basket put KU up 8, and Nova would never get closer as KU put the game away during its final run. Ochai Agbaji was on fire from deep (6-7) from 3, and Jalen Wilson’s double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds) and solid defense earned him another quality game.
Both Mitch Lightfoot and Christian Braun did enough to add small value. Braun had a tough first half, but made three huge shots down the stretch to ice the game. Neither Martin nor Harris had great outings, and this was partly due to a difficult matchup at the guard positions.
The five reserves all posted positive games as well, with Joseph Yesufu forcing a turnover.
The TEAM score of +23.40 is KU’s fourth-best of the season, and second consecutive game with a +20 score. The team plays in the National Championship game next.
David McCormack had his 6th team-MVP of the season
Game Summary:
Down 6 at halftime, not much was going well for Kansas. The team was only 13-31 from the floor (0-5 on 3’s), and worse still from the free-throw line (3-9). Despite the size and athletic advantage, the Hawks were being outrebounded 17 to 16. The results by player were mixed…Ochai Agbaji was playing okay; 6 points on 3-5 shooting, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 assist. Remy Martin also had 6 points on 3-7 shooting. Jalen Wilson had yet to score.
But David McCormack was quietly having a good game. He had 7 points in 10 minutes on 3-3 shooting, making his only FT attempt as well. He added 2 rebounds and had a +/- of +3, one of only 2 Jayhawks to have a positive first half +/-. Defensively, he only gave up 2 points in the half.
It makes sense that he would be the one to lead Kansas back in the second half. D-Mac scored the first 5 Kansas points (cutting the 29-35 deficit to 34-35). But his biggest highlight was in the midst of a 16-2 run. After Jalen Wilson missed a transition shot, McCormack pulled down an offensive rebound in traffic, battled through the contact, and finished for an and-1 to put KU up 7. His FT made it 8, and KU would never see the lead dip below 6 following that play.
When he checked out at 12:25, KU was up 7 and would go on another extended run to put the game away. Although Ochai Agbaji was the team’s leading scorer with 18 points, McCormack was the team’s most valuable player, adding 15 points while giving up only 2. He added 3 rebounds as well. This was McCormack’s first MVP since the first TCU game.
KU dominated the interior, as Mitch Lightfoot’s minutes were nearly equally as valuable as McCormack’s. But Mitch did it a little differently. Scoring 9 points, Mitch added more activity on defense, blocking a shot and getting boards. He also drew a charge. But like McCormack, he only allowed 2 points on defense.
Ochai Agbaji broke out of his slump to finish with 18 points. He was also active on defense, coming away with 4 steals. Remy Martin had his lowest scoring output of the NCAA Tournament, with 9, but he did other things to help his team win. 3 assists. 4 defensive rebounds. Solid perimeter defense. Ditto for Dejuan Harris. A nifty layup was part of the 5 points he scored, but he also added 4 assists and played stingy defense. After Kameron McGusty lit up KU in the first half, Harris took away Miami’s best weapon during the second half with strong defensive energy. Christian Braun had big plays in the second half, and although his score finished up below 0, it was due to him allowing points in the first half. He made adjustments and played well for Kansas when it counted.
The reserves also had good moments. Joseph Yesufu drew a charge. Jalen Coleman-Lands (finally) hit a 3, but he also played solid defense during the first half to not allow any points. Speaking of solid defense, K.J. Adams made an excellent block to keep KU within 6 at the end of the first half. Zach Clemence grabbed a board and Chris Teahan missed his only shot attempt.
A TEAM score of 26.53 is KU’s second-best outing of the year, only behind the Baylor game. Kansas is Final Four bound, and is playing its best ball at the right time. In its 7 post-season games, the Hawks are averaging a team score of +14.69.
Remy Martin now has 3 team-MVP’s, continuing his hot streak in March
Game Summary:
It was KU’s defense, not its offense, which carried it for most of the game. But when Providence made a run to take the lead, the Hawks got huge buckets from Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun.
Remy Martin was the team’s MVP, producing over 23 points while giving up only 9. On an opponent-adjusted basis, his game against Providence has been his best in the season. In his last five games, he is averaging +5.72 points of value above bubble per game. He has been Remy Marchtin for sure.
Dejuan Harris deserves a shout-out here, specifically because he will be overlooked. He finished with 6 points and 2 assists while only giving up a junk bucket late. He started out each half well, only to come out to allow Remy to enter. On defense, he forced 2 turnovers and played pesky defense all night.
Other positives were Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun. Wilson racked up 14 rebounds once you factor in the dead-ball rebounds that he won possession of. He scored 16 points, most of them unassisted, on a night where KU’s two leading scorers didn’t have great offensive outings. CB, KU’s #2 scorer on the year, did add value thanks to solid defense and rebounding. Even when he doesn’t have his best game on offense, Braun plays so consistently on defense that he rarely gets outplayed. After giving up a layup on a back-cut (which gave Providence its only lead 48-47), CB added almost 4 points of value over the final 5 1/2 minutes, with no negative plays. He made his only shot, won 4 defensive rebounds, had an assist on Ochai’s dunk, and didn’t turn it over.
On the negative side, Lightfoot made some nice defensive plays but also found himself giving up size inside. He did make a basket in the second-half after a dime by Remy Martin. Ochai Agbaji struggled to get clean looks. He had a great defensive outing in the first half, but his second period was marred by lapses on jump-shooters. David McCormack struggled on both ends, and his 8 points scored was overshadowed by his 13 points allowed. He also rebounded poorly for the amount of time he played.
Last, Jalen Coleman-Lands played nearly 4 minutes and didn’t record a stat. He played solid defense to not give up a bucket.
The TEAM had a score of +6.14, which is its second game in a row below the +10 mark (KU reached that milestone in 4 consecutive games before Creighton). To get through Miami, KU will need a game score of +2 or better. What this means is that Miami is about 2 points a game better than a bubble-team.
After an inconsistent year on the defensive side of the ball, KU has produced 6 out of 7 solid defensive outings down the stretch. KU will want its offense to be much better on Sunday afternoon, but thankfully the Hawks have not had two below-bubble team offensive games in a row this season.
Remy Martin slams down 2 points, and earns his second team-MVP of the season
Game Summary:
Cook, Remy, cook. After earning his first team-MVP of the season in the 34th game on the schedule in the Big 12 Championship, Remy Martin got his second team-MVP right away. Scoring, assisting, stealing, and playing with a contagious energy; he was a spark that allowed KU to put away 16-seed Texas Southern early in the game. If he continues to play like this, KU is undervalued when it comes to their chances.
Other strong outings were from Christian Braun, Mitch Lightfoot, Jalen Wilson, Dejuan Harris, and David McCormack. Focusing on Mitch, the sixth-year super-senior has had positive value-performances in 5 of his last 6 games. For the season he is nearly adding more value than a bubble-player, showing he has improved tremendously.
With a TEAM score of +16.38, KU has played four games in a row where their opponent-adjusted value score was +10 or higher. This matches their longest streak of the season, which occurred in the season’s first four games. It may be tough to remember that streak now, but it was when KU was playing its best and didn’t look to have many flaws. Although that period was short-lived, injury and slumping play from some its regulars would plague much of the season, it seems to have returned at the right time.
Coach Self said that Martin and Lightfoot essentially give KU 7 starters, an assessment that the numbers show to be accurate. If anything, it is understated; Jalen Coleman-Lands has been playing well on the year, also. With the team strongly favored in its next two potential games, KU is rolling when you want to be.
Remy Martin had his first team-MVP of the season, sparking KU to a Big 12 Tournament Championship
Game Summary:
Kansas took home the Big 12 Tournament with three great team outings. On Saturday, it was Remy Martin off the bench (12 points, 3 assists, 4 rebounds) who led the team in value. For the tournament, Ochai Agbaji was the best Jayhawk (+6.16 per game average). Mitch Lightfoot was also very good over the course of the three games (+4.64 per game).
Ochai’s emphatic dunk was part of a team-high 11th MVP game of the season.
Game Summary:
KU took the rubber match against TCU thanks to outstanding efforts from Ochai Agbaji and Mitch Lightfoot. Remy Martin had his best game in a few months, finishing with 10 points and 3 assists. Joe Yesufu got back on the positive side of the ledger with 3 points and 2 assists (with no misses or turnovers). Christian Braun struggled to finish but had a solid defensive outing to add net value.
KU will play for the Big 12 championship on Saturday.
CB earned his 9th team-MVP of the season, thanks to a balanced performance.
Game Summary:
KU won its quarterfinal match-up with solid performances from Christian Braun, Mitch Lightfoot, Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Coleman-Lands, Jalen Wilson, and Dejuan Harris. The team will play again tomorrow night against TCU.
Charting the Hawks 