Ochai Agbaji had his 5th MVP of the season, tying him for the team lead with Braun
Game Recap:
KU got solid performances from four of its wings: Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Wilson, Christian Braun, and even K.J. Adams. These four accounted for over 71% of the team’s points in only about 52% of the team minutes. On defense, these four only have up 40% of the 75 points the Jayhawks allowed Texas Tech. Ochai Agbaji was the team MVP, scoring 24 points and ending with a 1.34 offensive efficiency rate.
Once again, it was KU’s guard and post positions which were a let-down on both ends of the floor. David McCormack failed to follow up his Oklahoma State performance with a good game, as did Dejuan Harris. Remy Martin 12:25 of game play were the fewest in a game this season (aside from the George Mason DNP-injury), making one wonder if he is fully recovered.
The team score of 0.19 was the fourth-worst on the season.
David McCormack was the team’s most valuable player against Oklahoma State on 1/4/2022, his second MVP of the season. Dejuan Harris played the best defense, giving up only 4 points in 31 minutes.
Jalen Coleman-Lands lit it up for 20 points on 5-7 3-point shooting. He earned team MVP honors.
In terms of value produced, here are summaries for each player:
Jalen Coleman-Lands +11.82. Not only did he have an incredible shooting game, JCL also played solid defense, only giving up 7 points while grabbing a few rebounds. His first team MVP as a Jayhawk was also the fourth-best individual performance of any KU player this season.
Mitch Lightfoot +5.61. It was a good game for veteran players, as KU’s second-best performer was the 6th year senior. Both efficient on offense and stingy on defense, Lightfoot’s score was only hampered by his poor defensive rebounding effort.
Christian Braun +2.46. CB overtook Agbaji as Kansas’ best overall player in this game, although the two are statistically even at this point. He didn’t have a great game, but still played well by knocking down late free throws.
Jalen Wilson +1.96. J-Wil rebounded very well to make up for a poor shooting game. He also defended well, in fact all of KU’s wings have played good defense this season.
Ochai Agbaji +0.95. Agbaji didn’t have a great game offensively, but still defended well and made a nice and-1 on a drive to finish with 11 points. He is a “quiet” defender, in that he doesn’t block shots, grab a ton of rebounds, get many steals, or force many opponent turnovers.
David McCormack -5.62. Bad Dave was back, starting the New Year with only 1 point and a poor value score. He grabbed five offensive rebounds, but never finished any of his put-backs. His defense on the perimeter and interior was worse than Lightfoot’s, which is why Coach Self went with the backup during most of the second half.
Joseph Yesufu – 6.00. With Remy Martin out due to injury, this was a great opportunity for Yesufu to have a break-through game. Unfortunately, it was more of the same. Yesufu’s main issue is on defense, where he gives up both outside shots and drives despite his quickness.
DeJuan Harris -12.62. As good as JCL’s game was, Harris’ outing was bad enough to wipe away enough value from what his teammate added. Harris had a typical offensive game for him, only scoring 4 points, but it was on defense where he struggled, allowing 19 points and multiple 3-pointers. It was a disappointing step-back after his solid performance against Nevada.
TEAM -1.20. KU was 1.20 points worse than a hypothetical bubble-team, who would have been expected to beat George Mason at home by about 10.20 points (for this season, think Creighton as a bubble-team). Looking at the performances, KU got more-than-enough from its super seniors Coleman-Lands and Lightfoot. But it was the three players who had terrible games that held them back. With conference play beginning Tuesday, these types of performances will result in losses.
Christian Braun produced his team-leading 5th MVP game. He has produced positive value in all 11 games so far.Adj. to Opponent
Christian Braun: Produced over 17.5 more points than he allowed, while playing efficiently on both ends by limiting turnovers and winning possessions through rebounds, blocks, and forced TO’s. His opponent-adjusted score of +12.94 was the second-best on the season of any Jayhawk, only slightly behind his season-leading St. John’s performance.
David McCormack: Produced over 8.5 more points than he allowed, while winning more possessions back on defense than he used on offense. This high efficiency allowed him his second-best game of the season at +8.49.
Ochai Agbaji: Despite giving up 9 points on defense, Ochai came away with 10 possession winners (including 4 steals and 1 TO forced) to produce an overall value score of +4.54.
Dejuan Harris: Produced over 15 points, a career-high, but also gave up 12 points on defense against Nevada’s scoring guards. He turned it over twice, but forced five turnovers and grabbed two defensive rebounds, so was possession-positive. His value was +3.67.
Remy Martin: Produced over 4 points more on offense than he allowed. He forced a few turnovers and grabbed few rebounds to finish with a value of +1.96.
K.J. Adams: Assisting on a Braun 3 and a nice pitch-ahead to Agbaji on a fast-break (which the box score missed), Adams produced more points than he allowed despite not scoring himself. He had a miss and a rebound, netting to zero on possessions. His value was +0.61.
Jalen Wilson: Jalen scored 7 points and gave up 7 points, but since he scored two of his baskets on assists his point produced – allowed was negative. However, he made up for this by winning possessions from rebounds (8). His value was +0.24.
Michael Jankovich: Had one miss and one rebound, netting to zero. The slightly-negative score of -0.05 was due to opponent adjustment.
Chris Teahan: Had one miss. Value score of -0.51.
Jalen Coleman-Lands: Made 1 shot of 4, producing 2 points on offense. However, he didn’t give up any points on defense, making up some ground for his poor offensive efficiency. Value score of -0.60.
Zach Clemence: Gave up 3 more points than he produced, fouling three times in his 5:11 of floor time. He grabbed a couple boards as well. Value score of -1.21.
Mitch Lightfoot: Gave up nearly 4 more points than he allowed in 10:16 of floor time. Possessions were also on the negative side, with his 3 turnovers driving his score down. Value score of -4.35.
Joseph Yesufu: Gave up 6 points in only 5:20 of floor time, while turning it over twice on offense. Value score of -5.68.
TEAM: Offensive efficiency of 1.14, Defensive efficiency of 0.79. Value score of +20.05 was the second-best on the season (behind the Missouri game).
Christian Braun had his 4th MVP game of the season
Although it was closer than expected, KU’s talent shown through at crunch time, and the Jayhawks held on to win, 80-72 over Stephen F. Austin. With Kansas being about a 22 point favorite from the computers (Vegas had it at 23.5), the 8 point win meant this was KU’s second-worse performance of the season. Below are the value scores:
Christian Braun has now produced positive value in all ten games this season. He was the most valuable Jayhawk against SFA with a value above bubble of +6.76 points. As in most games, he filled the stat sheet. Along with being the leading point producer, he won 9 defensive possessions Saturday night, the most on the team.
Ochai Agbaji did not have his best game finishing scoring chances (two missed dunks), but played solid defense in 39 minutes, only giving up 7 points defensively. He produced +3.12 points above bubble, showing that his improvement in the off-season has brought up his “floor” immensely.
Jalen Wilson had a nice night off the bench in about 20 minutes. His one 3-point attempt didn’t fall (making him 1-15 on the season), but he made some shots in the midrange. His defense has remained steady in 7 games this year, and it helped provide value for his team last night.
Zach Clemence didn’t play much but scored on a put back attempt following an offensive rebound. His defense wasn’t great in the few minutes he played, but still managed to produce an overall positive value game.
Remy Martin was clutch, making a late 3-point basket to give Kansas a more comfortable 6 point lead during the final minute of play. However, he gave up a quick lay-up soon after. He struggled to get going and had some defensive lapses, leading to a slightly negative game.
Jalen Coleman-Lands made a couple free-throws in a few first-half minutes (he didn’t play in the second half), but also played poor defense.
Joseph Yesufu gave up two buckets in his few minutes of play, once on a mismatch inside and once giving up a drive to a guard.
Mitch Lightfoot played the bulk of the minutes inside, giving up some scoring to SFA’s skilled big Gavin Kinsmil. However, he hit the offensive glass to the tune of 4 boards.
Dejuan Harris only took one field goal attempt, a missed dunk. He did put in four FT’s to ice the game away. While he struggles to produce points aside from assisting, his defense last night was as good as it could have been.
David McCormack had a very poor game, finishing with only 2 points and battling foul trouble all evening. Still, you need more than 10 minutes out of him.
TEAM was at -3.70, meaning a similar type performance against a bubble team on a neutral site would result in a 3-4 point loss. Kansas is getting very consistent positive performances from Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun. The team normally gets at least an okay game from Martin and Wilson. But it is the others; in particular McCormack, Lightfoot, Coleman-Lands, and Harris; who mix good to great games with bad ones.
Note that K.J. Adams was out sick and was unavailable. Bobby Pettiford is also still recovering from his injury, so KU only dressed 10 scholarship players (all of whom played) for this game. Agbaji, Braun, and Martin all played season-high minutes (39, 36, and 35), which resulted in a game which saw the least amount of bench-play so far this season. Using the HHI player rotation metric (higher means less substitution), the SFA game was at 0.73, well beyond the range of 0.50 – 0.66 that the season’s first 9 games had seen. The rotation is being tightened as conference play nears.
This blog post was inspired by a discussion that Matt Tait and Nick Schwerdt had recently. Tait always has a refreshingly positive look at the team, and Schwerdt’s assessments are always quite reasonable. If you haven’t seen it already, I recommend watching the short video located here. In it they discuss how well Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun have been playing. Schwerdt goes as far to posit that this might be one of Bill Self’s best duos he’s had, something Schwerdt admits he wasn’t expecting to say at the beginning of the season.
This prompts both to think of other pairs at KU. Schwerdt comes up with Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham, who played together for three seasons (2015, 2016, 2017), and which had their best collective season in 2017. Tait brings up Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike, who mostly played together in the 2020 season (Azubuike missed most of 2019). Another duo mentioned was Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk, although this seemed to be chosen more for stylistic reasons.
If there’s one thing Charting the Hawks seeks to do, it’s to answer questions such as these using an objective statistical-scoring system which assesses player value. The value-metric of choice will be Adjusted PPG +/-, the proprietary system developed here. This will be a one-number metric, expressed in points per game, which shows the value a player provides over that of a KU-level replacement player (or “bubble” player).
In order to see which duos have performed best, I simply separated the two best players of each season, and combined their scores. For instance, for the 2021 season, I took Marcus Garrett and David McCormack’s value scores and combined them to arrive at +7.32. I went back to each year since 1997 and then ranked the duos in terms of highest to lowest. The results are below.
The 1998 team was carried by Raef LaFrentz and Paul Pierce
Through nine games, the duo of Agbaji and Braun have been the second-best of any season since 1997, closely behind LaFrentz and Pierce. Of course, this is only through nine games. The season is about 1/4 of the way complete, so there’s reason to think both players will see their value scores revert down somewhat. (Note however that these numbers are schedule-adjusted, so they aren’t arbitrarily high due to opponent quality. Agbaji and Braun have truly been that good). The current leaders in the Bill Self era (years highlighted in blue) was the 2005 version of Wayne Simien and Keith Langford. Simien’s 2005 season is currently the highest of any player since 1997, barely nudging out Frank Mason’s 2017. Langford had a solid senior season, but the reason that due is so high on this list is because of Simien. With the Agbaji/Braun combo, it’s the case that both have been elite that is so interesting.
The next question I had was to see how rare it was for any one team to have two or more players with a value score as high as Agbaji and Braun. Without being arbitrary, we can select +5.00 as the cutoff…how many Jayhawk teams since 1997 have had two players with a value score of at least +5.00?
Since 1997, there have been 356 player-seasons (for instance Devonte’ Graham’s has 4 of these 356 player-seasons seasons since he played at Kansas 4 seasons). Only 15 out of 356 have been above +5.00. So this is a rare feat for any individual player. Rarer still is the occasion of this happening for multiple Jayhawks in the same season. In fact, it has only happened twice; in 1998 with LaFrentz and Pierce, and in 2011 with the Morris twins. Agbaji and Braun would be only the third duo if they keep this up.
In closing, Agbaji and Braun have been playing at elite levels even by KU standards, comparable to the LaFrentz/Pierce duo or even the Morris twins. But it is the vast improvement of both players which is so surprising. In a future post we will look at the largest improvements year-over-year and see how these two compare.
Christian Braun throws down 2 on his way to his third team MVP game of the season
After nine seasons without the rivalry being played, Kansas destroyed Missouri with a balanced attack led by incredibly efficient offense. The win moved Kansas to 8-1 on the season.
Beating Missouri by 37 was the team’s best performance of the season thus far
Dejuan Harris, Joseph Yesufu, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and Chris Teahan had their best outings of the season against Missouri. Braun and Agbaji also produced solid value scores in keeping with the excellent basketball they have been playing. David McCormack played his fourth positive-value game in a row.
Ochai Agbaji earned his 4th team MVP of the season
Not much to write about here. KU’s defense was the best its been all season, although this was partly due to the skill of the opponent (UTEP is 239th on Offense and 97th on Defense on KenPom). Once again, Ochai Agbaji looks like the conference’s best player and Christian Braun did a little bit of everything for the team. None of the three PG’s who played (Pettiford is out with an injury) scored a point.
The 2010 Kansas Jayhawks finished 33-3 (15-1), winning the Big 12 Regular Season and Conference Tournament. The team earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and made the Round of 32 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.
OFFENSE
The 2010 offense was led by Sherron Collins, the senior point guard and team’s most-veteran leader. He added a solid value score of +2.41, second on the team behind much-improved sophomore PF Marcus Morris. Collins was not super efficient, but he could take and make the tough shots and get looks for others due to his skill and effort running the show. He led the team in shot frequency percentage, taking 24.2% of shots while in the game (20.0% is average). Marcus Morris’s efficiency led the team, and he did so while still contributing more than his fair share of attempts. Others positives to mention include the efficient big man Cole Aldrich and the versatile wing freshman Xavier Henry.
DEFENSE
The 2010 defense was anchored by 6’11 center Cole Aldrich, an inside force who won 12.6 possessions per 60 possessions played. He even added value in how many points he allowed, using his length and experience to overcome a lack of quickness as well as teams trying to force him to guard outside the lane. Other defensive standouts include Xavier Henry, Marcus Morris, and Tyrel Reed. Reed may have also been the team’s most underrated defender, as he led the team in points allowed per 60 possessions, with Sherron Collins behind him a bit.
Total Adjusted PPG +/-
In a bit of a surprise, Marcus Morris graded out as the top Jayhawk, although his per game value was not statistically more significant than Cole Aldrich. The 2010 Kansas Jayhawks had tremendous balance, with its top seven players in minutes played all providing positive value for the team. The depth on this roster is unmatched; freshmen Thomas Robinson, Elijah Johnson, and Jeff Withey would all be starters on the 2012 team that finished national runners-up. Despite being clearly talented prospects, they were 9th, 10th, and 13th in minutes played on this team due to depth.
It’s unfortunate this team didn’t have more tournament success, because it was poised for a deep run. Sometimes, fluke losses happen. That’s certainly what happened here. The 2010 team was versatile, experienced, and deep. It had great college players along with future NBA players. Counting its game margins and strength of schedule, it grades out as the third-best KU team (and Self’s second-best team at KU) since 1997 (behind 2008 and 1997).
Coverage Metrics
(Coverage metrics relates to how much video, radio, highlights, play-by-play, newspaper, etc. coverage was available to chart this season, with each medium weighted by its a preset value score. Recorded TV coverage is best, followed by video highlights, radio, and so on).
The 2010 season has a coverage score of 90.61%. This number indicates the average accuracy score for possessions that season. As it is in yellow, this makes the 2010 season slightly above the middle in terms of coverage. In general, the further back in time we go, the less video we have for that season.
Out of 36 games that season, there are still 22 games left that don’t have full video. For many of these games, partial highlights do exist and have been incorporated. Additionally, play-by-play description and analysis from newspaper coverage can help with the charting. But nothing beats video. In total, 41.9% of possessions in 2010 were charted from video, which is the second-lowest from 2006 – present. Most years prior to 2006 will be below 41.9%. The last column looks at how many possessions have a strong degree of confidence (90%+). These are plays that are either seen on video or are described through play-by-play. Nearly 9 out of 10 plays have a strong confidence, with the other 10.6% being more speculative.
The hope is that the plays which don’t have as high a degree of confidence will balance out among the players. These plays are essentially split among players based on certain estimates (i.e. if an opposing big man scores, it is likely due to the faulty defense of a KU big man who is on the floor at that time). What ends up happening is that a coverage error exists. The hope is that the error is small. If we look at the value scores again…
…we should understand that these are estimates of player value, and that there is an coverage error of some factor, perhaps as high as +/- 0.50 points per game for certain players. More work will be done to establish a coverage error number.
Coverage error is the only type of error being discussed here. Other potential errors which haven’t been discussed are systemic errors (how the system is set up), mathematical errors (in making calculations), as well as interpretation errors (i.e. when charting, the charter erroneously gives credit/blame to Player A when it should have gone to Player B).
KU defeated St. John’s by 20 in New York in the Big 12 / Big East Challenge game, improving to 6-1 in the non-conference. Below are the value scores for each player.
Christian Braun recorded the best game of any Jayhawk this season at +13.39. David McCormack had his second consecutive good outing, and both Ochai Agbaji and Remy Martin performed at a level we’ve been accustomed to seeing. K.J. Adams actually won 6 possessions from rebounds (5 offensive) in only 6 minutes, two more than what the official box score gave him. Despite only scoring 8 points so far in 7 games, K.J. is actually adding offensive value this season because of his rebounds.
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