Current Championship Odds

Below are the market-derived odds for various championships in sports. These odds are updated manually as of the date listed, so may not be current. This is the most unbiased look at what the market views as the true odds for a team to win a title.

NCAA Basketball Champions (April 2027) – As of 4/7/2026 – First Projection

• Duke – 7.8%
• Michigan – 6.9%
• Arizona – 4.8%
• Florida – 4.5%
• Houston – 4.2%
• Michigan State – 3.9%
• Connecticut – 3.7%
• Kansas – 3.7%
• Arkansas – 3.0%
• Illinois – 3.0%
• North Carolina – 2.7%
• Vanderbilt – 2.4%
• Gonzaga – 2.4%
• Texas Tech – 2.4%
• St. John’s – 2.0%
• Virginia – 2.0%
• Iowa State – 2.0%
• Kentucky – 2.0%
• Alabama – 2.0%
• Louisville – 1.2%
• Purdue – 1.2%
• BYU – 1.2%
• Tennessee – 1.2%
• Miami – 1.2%

Earliest odds have Kansas tied for 7th with Connecticut. A lot to be determined on this front given the nature of the portal and how much teams can change. This is basically the market’s look at program strength, with Kansas still in the mix but a bit lower than the top tier.

2026 British Open – July 2026

• Scottie Scheffler: 9.3%
• Rory McIlroy: 7.8%
• Tommy Fleetwood: 3.9%
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 3.9%
• Jon Rahm: 3.5%
• Xander Schauffele: 2.9%
• Cameron Young: 2.4%
• Chris Gotterup: 2.4%
• Ludvig Aberg: 2.2%
• Collin Morikawa: 2.1%

Scheffler’s market-derived odds to start a major are below 10% for the first time since the 2023 British, making it 11 majors in a row with 10% or greater odds. He won 3 majors out of an expected 1.54 over that period. He is still the favorite, however, and as long as he doesn’t withdraw before the tournament (starting tomorrow morning) will become the second most-favored-at-a-major golfer in the current era (1985 and on).

The current expectation for a first time major champion is 53.3% as unpredictability tends to play more of a factor in these special, links-style golf tournaments. The odds the winner comes from USA/EUR/INT is:

• USA: 46.0%
• EUR: 41.5%
• INT: 12.5%

Europe has a good chance to win 3 of 4 majors for the first time since 2014, with the Internationals still searching for their first major since the 2022 British (Cam Smith). They’ve missed out on 15 in a row, the longest streak of any side since Europe went winless from the 1999 to 2007 British Opens. The U.S. has nearly even odds to avoid winning only 1 major in 2026. The last time the Americans failed to win at least 2 majors in a calendar year was also 2014.

Looking Back at Recent Champs

Starting Win Odds for 2026 Major Champions

• 2026 U.S. Open: Wyndham Clark – 1.5%
• 2026 PGA: Aaron Rai – 0.2%
• 2026 Masters: Rory McIlroy – 5.4%

NCAA Baseball Champions (June 2026)

• Oklahoma (0.4% before NCAA Tournament started)

NCAA Basketball Champions (April 2026)

Michigan won the 2026 National Championship. Here is a history of their odds.

• 4/8/2025 – 2.5%
• 12/30/2025 – 13.4%
• 1/23/2026 – 13.6%
• 2/25/2026 – 15.4%
• 3/9/2026 – 18.9%
• 3/16/2026 (Before R64) – 17.7%
• 3/24/2026 (Before S16) – 22.7%
• 3/30/2026 (Before F4) – 37.5%
• 4/6/2026 (Before CG) – 73.0%

Starting the offseason in 12th in the odds, Michigan emerged as an early favorite by December, and was always in the top three of the odds up to the tournament.

CFP 2025 College Football Season (January 2026)

Indiana won the CFP at the end of the 2025 season. Here is a brief history of their odds.

• Before Quarterfinals: 21.8%
• Before Semifinals: 41.4%
• Before Finals: 73.7%

Starting Win Odds for 2025 Major Champions

• 2025 British Open: Scottie Scheffler – 13.6%
• 2025 U.S. Open: J.J. Spaun – 0.5%
• 2025 PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler – 11.8%
• 2025 Masters: Rory McIlroy – 9.4%

NCAA Basketball Champions (April 2025)

Florida won the 2025 National Championship. Here is a history of their odds.

• 2/17 – 7.5%
• 3/3 – 7.0%
• 3/17 (Before R64) – 16.2%
• 3/22 (Before R32) – 17.2%
• 3/24 (Before S16) – 17.5%
• 3/29 (Before E8) – 21.0%
• 3/31 (Before F4) – 24.0%
• 4/7 (Before CG) – 51.0%

Florida had the fourth-best odds for much of February into March. By the start of March Madness, this had grown to second-best (behind Duke).