Current Championship Odds

Below are the market-derived odds for various championships in sports. These odds are updated manually as of the date listed, so may not be current. This is the most unbiased look at what the market views as the true odds for a team to win a title.

NCAA Basketball Champions (April 2027) – As of 4/7/2026 – First Projection

• Duke – 7.8%
• Michigan – 6.9%
• Arizona – 4.8%
• Florida – 4.5%
• Houston – 4.2%
• Michigan State – 3.9%
• Connecticut – 3.7%
• Kansas – 3.7%
• Arkansas – 3.0%
• Illinois – 3.0%
• North Carolina – 2.7%
• Vanderbilt – 2.4%
• Gonzaga – 2.4%
• Texas Tech – 2.4%
• St. John’s – 2.0%
• Virginia – 2.0%
• Iowa State – 2.0%
• Kentucky – 2.0%
• Alabama – 2.0%
• Louisville – 1.2%
• Purdue – 1.2%
• BYU – 1.2%
• Tennessee – 1.2%
• Miami – 1.2%

Earliest odds have Kansas tied for 7th with Connecticut. A lot to be determined on this front given the nature of the portal and how much teams can change. This is basically the market’s look at program strength, with Kansas still in the mix but a bit lower than the top tier.

2026 U.S. Open – June 2026

• Scottie Scheffler – 11.7%
• Rory McIlroy – 7.3%
• Bryson DeChambeau – 5.3%
• Jon Rahm – 4.5%
• Ludvig Aberg – 3.4%
• Cameron Young – 3.1%
• Xander Schauffele – 3.1%
• Matt Fitzpatrick – 2.8%
• Tommy Fleetwood – 2.8%
• Collin Morikawa – 2.5%

The season’s third major begins June 18, returning to Shinnecock Hills where it was played 8 years ago. Scheffler’s odds once again show him to be the favorite, and little is changed on the order from the PGA’s. I expect Rahm’s to get better and DeChambeau’s to drop.

There is a 46% chance that someone currently without a major wins the U.S. Open, and by nationality, here is what we’re expecting:

• USA – 54.1%
• EUR – 34.1%
• INT – 11.8%

It has been 14 tournaments in a row with an American or European winner…the Internationals haven’t hoisted a major championship trophy since Cam Smith raised the Claret Jug in 2022.

Looking Back at Recent Champs

Starting Win Odds for 2026 Major Champions

• 2026 Masters: Rory McIlroy – 5.4%
• 2026 PGA: Aaron Rai – 0.2%

NCAA Basketball Champions (April 2026)

Michigan won the 2026 National Championship. Here is a history of their odds.

• 4/8/2025 – 2.5%
• 12/30/2025 – 13.4%
• 1/23/2026 – 13.6%
• 2/25/2026 – 15.4%
• 3/9/2026 – 18.9%
• 3/16/2026 (Before R64) – 17.7%
• 3/24/2026 (Before S16) – 22.7%
• 3/30/2026 (Before F4) – 37.5%
• 4/6/2026 (Before CG) – 73.0%

Starting the offseason in 12th in the odds, Michigan emerged as an early favorite by December, and was always in the top three of the odds up to the tournament.

CFP 2025 College Football Season (January 2026)

Indiana won the CFP at the end of the 2025 season. Here is a brief history of their odds.

• Before Quarterfinals: 21.8%
• Before Semifinals: 41.4%
• Before Finals: 73.7%

Starting Win Odds for 2025 Major Champions

• 2025 British Open: Scottie Scheffler – 13.6%
• 2025 U.S. Open: J.J. Spaun – 0.5%
• 2025 PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler – 11.8%
• 2025 Masters: Rory McIlroy – 9.4%

NCAA Basketball Champions (April 2025)

Florida won the 2025 National Championship. Here is a history of their odds.

• 2/17 – 7.5%
• 3/3 – 7.0%
• 3/17 (Before R64) – 16.2%
• 3/22 (Before R32) – 17.2%
• 3/24 (Before S16) – 17.5%
• 3/29 (Before E8) – 21.0%
• 3/31 (Before F4) – 24.0%
• 4/7 (Before CG) – 51.0%

Florida had the fourth-best odds for much of February into March. By the start of March Madness, this had grown to second-best (behind Duke).