Close Calls at the PHOG

One area PHOG magic can be seen is in the number of close games KU wins at Allen Fieldhouse. Even more precisely, the number of end-of-game defensive stops KU gets.

On a Saturday afternoon in early February, 1997, the highly-favored Jayhawks were in a dog-flight with the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Tied 60-60, Nebraska had a chance to win it in regulation and upset the then-undefeated and #1 Jayhawks. KU used pressure defense and didn’t allow a clean attempt at the basket, forcing overtime which was won by Kansas. The video can be seen here.

Since that time, defensive stands by KU at home have always stood out to us. From that date – 2/1/1997 – to the present, we’ve calculated that KU has played in 49 games with the following criteria:

• KU is on defense
• Score is anywhere from KU +3 to a tied game
• Clock is under 30 seconds

Effectively, KU needs a defensive stand to either win or force overtime. Were it to allow the opponent to score, it would either lose or be at risk losing in overtime. Excluded from this are scenarios where KU is down, as it would have to either foul or force a turnover to have a chance at winning.

Of these 49 games, KU has gone on to win 44, for a 89.8% winning percentage. And while some of these are easier to win (when KU is ahead), they’ve also gotten 10 stops in tie games to force overtime while only giving up 4 game-winning shots. They’ve additionally given up a few shots to tie the score while eventually going on to win. Still, 44-5 with the games so close seems astronomically impossible if the aura of the PHOG weren’t real.

Another way to look at this is to take each possession where the above criteria apply. As these games sometimes feature multiple defensive-stand possessions, we arrive at 70 possessions where KU needs a stop to either win/force OT. We calculate that 59.5 of these possessions ended in success (KU fouled and allowed 1/2 FT’s on one possession, which we’ll call a draw), or an 85.0% success rate. Opponents score at 0.357 points per possession in these scenarios, indicating that KU clamps down on the defensive end, using the energy of the crowd to win these high-leverage possessions.

The five defeats are:

• 1/22/2004 – Richmond. The Spiders hit a midrange shot down 1 to win by 1 with under a second to go.
• 2/19/2005 – Iowa State. The Cyclones made a midrange shot in a tie game to win by 2. KU still had 5 seconds left to tie/win, but couldn’t convert.
• 2/3/2007 – Texas A&M. Acie Law buried a corner 3 and led the Aggies to an eventual 3-point win. Law’s 3-pointer put A&M up 1 and they got a stop when KU tried to retake the lead in the final 20 seconds.
• 12/31/2024 – West Virginia. Javon Small made 1/2 FT’s with 1.8 seconds left.
• 1/25/2025 – Houston. Incredible collapse by KU allowed this to happen. In fact KU got scored on twice to allow Houston to extend the game…first in regulation and then in the first OT (following a turnover by Mayo).

Some might also wonder about 2017 Iowa State. KU did lose but that game never saw such a scenario. Sure, it was close. But KU wasn’t tied/ahead needing a defensive stand in the last 30 seconds of the 2H/OT. They had the final shot in regulation (a miss) and trailed in the late stages of the extra period.

Some notable wins include the 2022 Iowa State game, when ISU took the lead (briefly) with 18 seconds left only for Dajuan Harris to hit a scooping runner and for ISU to miss the final shot as time expired. KU did allow a basket when it needed a defensive stand, but it also got a final defensive stand here.

KU gave up a 3 to UCLA in the 2011 season which tied the score, but would go on to win in regulation after Mario Little got fouled as time expired and hit a FT.

KU had a clutch stop against Texas in 2022 on Senior Day inside 30 seconds left. The Hawks would go on to win in overtime.

Connecticut had a game-winning 3-point attempt in the 2024 season that was missed at the buzzer. Many of KU’s defensive stands are just watching the opponent miss. Again, is this the PHOG?

The most epic scenario was in the 2016 Oklahoma game, the triple-overtime victory which saw KU get 5 crucial defensive stands throughout the end of regulation (missed front-end FT) and overtime periods.