2022 Kansas Jayhawks Through 3 Games

After defeating Stony Brook 88-59 last night, KU improved to 3-0 while finishing up the first portion of its schedule. Each season has its own unique flow, and this flow will change as the season progresses. Starting on Thanksgiving Day, KU will play 3 games in 4 days in Orlando. By that Sunday evening, it will have played double the games it has to this point. The flow of the season also changes due to travel, as KU won’t return to Allen Fieldhouse for a game until it faces Missouri on December 11, a gap of 5 games over 23 days away from Lawrence. Lastly, these first three games were the ones without redshirt sophomore forward Jalen Wilson. For these reasons it seems justifiable to take a look back at the season thus far.

Ochai’s Dominance

The most significant part of KU’s season has been the impeccable play of Ochai Agbaji. He has been a scoring machine, accounting for double the points that the second and third-most productive Jayhawks have provided. He has been the team’s leading point producer while maintaining better efficiency than the team average, a tough thing for a scoring guard to do. He is taking more shots, tougher shots than his teammates, but still scoring at a efficient pace. Defensively, he has been the team’s best player as well, giving up an estimated 6.4 points per 60 possessions. After calculating all relevant factors, Ochai is producing an Offense, Defense, Total Adj. PPG +/- of: +9.20, +1.69, +10.89. This is validated by the eye test. Ochai is scoring more at the rim and has gotten adept at driving with his right hand. His jump shot is quicker and more composed, and he has shown the patience to stay aggressive, even when starting out in a slump against Stony Brook. He has accompanied this by playing smart and tough defense, not taking plays off. If there were questions before the season they should be answered now. Ochai Agbaji is KU’s best player.

Offensive Skill, Defensive Mediocrity

Through 3 games, KU is scoring 1.25 points per possession and allowing 0.92 points per. For all Division 1, the average is 0.992. At first glance, it appears that KU is doing well on both ends. And while this is true for the offensive side of the ball, once you adjust for the current strength of schedule these points per possession scores are unimpressive on the defensive side. Simply put, KU will face better teams during the bulk of its schedule. And if these games are marred by some of the defensive lapses we’ve seen, these skilled teams will score more than what Tarleton St. or Stony Brook were able to muster. As a team KU has been +14.69 on Offense and -1.18 on Defense for a Total score of +13.52. If they could keep this pace, this would put them as the third-best Bill Self team (behind 2008 and 2010). However, there are questions as to whether KU can keep its offense so well-tuned; can Agbaji keep scoring this well, will there be a reversion to mean from guys like Clemence, how will the team perform against tougher defenses, etc. The questions on defense also remain. While there should be improvement in some areas, this year’s team has no great individual defenders, a few good ones, and many poor ones. While I don’t see this wide of a gap remaining between offense and defense, there is good reason to think that the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks will win most of its games by outscoring its opponents. But improvements on the defensive end have to come.

A Run of Positive Play

One interesting thing of note is that, along with Ochai Agbaji +10.89, these other three players have made positive contributions in each of the first three games played: Christian Braun +2.69, Jalen Coleman Lands +2.98, and Zach Clemence +3.44. Unsurprisingly, these four players have been KU’s best players during this opening stretch. When we look further into the numbers, each of these four players is adding value on both offense and defense. While three games is not a large period of time, it does show who has earned minutes so far. Consistency is key.

Slow Start, Turning Around?

David McCormack posted his first positive performance against Stony Brook. After a poor game against Michigan St. and an okay one against Tarleton St., McCormack played to the level he is capable of in the season’s third game. With each game he is starting to play more like he did last season. Still, he is -2.63 on the season, a value score he will have to improve upon by consistently strong play.

Rotation with Wilson?

The first chapter of the season, the one without Jalen Wilson, is finished. Each one of the 11 scholarship players has played well at times. Some have played better than others. How does the rotation look moving forward? We can assume that Wilson will get at least 20, and likely closer to 30, minutes each game that remains competitive. Where do these minutes come from? At first, one would think these would be wing minutes that Wilson would get, and the current wings would each play a little less. But Coleman-Lands, Braun, and especially Agbaji have all been solid pieces helping win games. Perhaps Wilson will get some minutes as a small-ball 5, but again that means fewer minutes for Clemence (very good so far), Lightfoot (playing slightly positive thus far), and the guy who will hopefully become the team’s best inside scorer in McCormack. The last option is to play more minute with Agbaji at the 2, basically go to a 1 guard, 3 wings, 1 post look. This would take away minutes from the four-headed point/combo-guard monster of Harris, Martin, Yesufu, and Pettiford. Of these four, Yesufu has played the worst but has so much upside. Martin is battling a back injury which may limit his minutes for some time, but when healthy he is an excellent scorer. Harris distributes so well and has solidified his defense which makes it tough to not have him on the court. Pettiford has been a pleasant surprise, although he has lost his man on defense recently. It isn’t an easy question. And we haven’t even mentioned K.J. Adams, an athletic defender who doesn’t need shots but can do so many little things that this team in can use. Self may eventually shorten his bench, but I expect that to be later in the season rather than sooner.