More on the Bench

While KU continues to win close games, it is in spite of its bench players. This phenomenon was discussed earlier in the season, and the discrepancy between its starters and bench has remained. Self has continued to play Bobby Pettiford and Joseph Yesufu as reserve guards, with an oft-injured M.J. Rice having not playing in the last three games. Zuby Ejiofor has been KU’s most-frequently-used bench big man in conference play (27 minutes), followed by Zach Clemence (21 minutes) and Cam Martin (6 minutes). Ernest Udeh has played in only 1 second of conference play. Yes, just 1 second. This came at the end of the Oklahoma State game when he was guarding the inbounds pass.

Since the last time we examined their performance, the KU bench has hardly changed in overall value it provides. After 10 games, the bench was positioned to earn about -3.00 WAR over a normalized 36-game schedule. With 17 games in the book, this has hardly budged. The 2023 bench is still the worst bench in the 20-year Self-era, and with no signs of improvement would be only the 6^th bench to produce negative-WAR value over that time span.

One thing to consider is that there is a sort of floor to this number. The worse the bench plays, the less Self will go to it. Through 5 conference games, the starters have averaged 32.5 minutes per game each. This is Self maxing out starter-minutes. He cannot play them much more, considering foul trouble will occur at times and fatigue will set in. With limited bench minutes, two things should keep the number somewhat afloat. First, the bench has less collective time on the floor to perform poorly. Second, in limited minutes the bench players should have the energy to play each defensive possession 100%. The bench should be giving maximum effort when they are out there, thus maximizing their potential value on a possession basis.

There are various ways to quantify the dreadfulness of the bench rotation. We have used the WAR value metric to compare the 2023 bench to others in the Self-era. Now we will compare the 2023 starters – Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, and Adams – to the remainder of the team using Adj. Points AB +/-. This metric compares a player’s value, in points relative to a bubble-level opponent (about the 45^th best team in D-1). Anything positive is quite good and should earn the player rotation minutes, with anything greater than +2.00 indicating a performance level that would start on almost any KU team.

The following numbers are thus presented per game, collectively divided between starters and bench.

The starting 5 produces an average difference of 13.16 points above a bubble team per game. They have been tremendous. This year’s starters have collectively out-done last season’s starting 5, which were +10.83 points above bubble per game. For the Missouri game, the starters were an absurd +39.84. They have only been below bubble-level as a group twice this season, first against Omaha (which was technically their worst opponent-adjusted performance) and second against Tennessee. Even then, these games were barely below the 0 threshold.

In contrast, the bench has played to a bubble-standard in only four games (23.5% of games). Ironically, its best game was against Omaha with a +5.02 performance, which is also the only time it has outperformed the starting 5. Its worst outing was against Southern Utah, in a game that was only close because of the reserves. Worse, the bench is trending downward. It hasn’t produced a positive outing since the Indiana game. Last season, on a team that featured seniors like Mitch Lightfoot, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and of course Remy Martin off the bench; it was collectively -0.52 and produced 17 games above bubble-standard (42.5%). This number was much higher at the end of the season when it counted, as the bench collectively produced an average game of +5.53 in the 9 games that made up the 2 tournaments. This was due to the great play of Remy, as well as a shortened rotation that played the senior reserves far more than the underclass backups. Suffice to say, the 2023 team doesn’t currently have that kind of fire-power waiting in the wings. It has underclassmen and transfers, none of whom have proven any capacity to be consistently great at the upper echelons of the D1 level.

Having a poor bench is no reason to despair. History has shown that teams with great starters can win in the Tournament despite having little help from its reserves. The 2012 runners-up had a very similar divide between a strong starting 5 and weak bench. However, even the 2012 bench had experience; Kevin Young was a redshirt junior and Conner Teahan a fifth-year senior. The 2016 team is another good comparison. It earned the number-one overall seed and made an Elite 8 on the backs of its experienced starters, getting little from its bench.

There are a few potential bright spots to consider when pondering the bench situation. First, is that KU has talented young players on its roster. It really only takes the development of one or two of the following by March for this situation to drastically improve: Pettiford, Yesufu, Rice, Ejiofor, Udeh, Clemence. If KU can comfortably play any of these guys 10 minutes or so and expect a consistent performance, it can better maintain leads that its starting 5 works to build. The second consideration doesn’t have to do with the bench, but with the makeup of the starting 5. The starters are all capable of playing a heavy-load, thus reducing the negative-impact the bench has collectively brought. K.J. Adams is far more like a wing than a post in terms of fitness and durability, meaning that even the 5-spot needs fewer bench minutes this season than it historically does.

Lastly, where should the team go from here? In comparing Per 100 points above bubble, there is good reason to like the potential development of Udeh and Ejiofor. These two have clearly been superior to other bench-players, particularly the other 5 men. While Ejiofor has gotten in games consistently, Udeh has been relegated to DNPs of late. Perhaps this should be reexamined, particularly if Clemence continues to defend at a poor level.

There hasn’t been much value from the reserve guards/wings. Injuries have plagued all four (with Cuffe still out), and even when healthy none have provided consistent value. The team loses scoring ability, size, and defensive skill when it goes to the bench and gains little. Shifting K.J. down to the 4 when Jalen is out is honestly a worthy consideration.

Kansas 79, Oklahoma 75

Jalen Wilson’s defense graded out so well it earned him his 8th team-MVP game of the season. Wilson’s defense has been especially solid the last two games despite poor shooting performances. Once again, KU’s starters carried the load, as its bench was collectively 8 points worse than a bubble-team against OU. Zach Clemence had a great offensive night that was cancelled out by a poor defensive showing. Bobby Pettiford gave up a few baskets as well, while producing only 1 FT and 2 assists.

K.J. Adams had his 10th consecutive positive-bubble game thanks to a career-high 22 points. His rebounding was still the thing holding him back. Thus far, we have him with 54 fewer defensive boards than Jalen Wilson. When broken down by playing time, Wilson is nearly doubling him up on defensive rebounds on a per-minute or per-possession basis. The point is that if K.J. could clean the glass a bit more, he’d be adding even more value. Despite this limitation, he’s been great for Kansas.

Kansas 76, West Virginia 62

Jalen Wilson’s stingy defense won him his 7th game-MVP of the season. It was also his best individual game since the Missouri game. The other starters all performed very well.

The bench guards Pettiford and Yesufu gave up too many points on defense. Backup 5-men, Ejiofor and Clemence, had positive games in their limited minutes. For Clemence, he scored his first points of the season on an assisted layup in the second half.

Kansas 69, Oklahoma State 67

Bill Self looking for more from Kansas’ bench

In KU’s 95-67 drubbing of Missouri, the bench only contributed 9 points (3 of those from Michael Jankovich) in 41 minutes. Four of the starters played 32+ minutes despite being in control of the game most of the way. Clearly Self doesn’t trust his bench.

https://247sports.com/college/kansas/Video/Bill-Self-looking-for-more-from-Kansas-bench-11512994/

KU’s bench has not been great, to put it mildly. The starting 5 has all had big moments in the team’s 9-1 start, but little production has come from the reserves. Sure, there are moments. Bobby Pettiford’s put-back reverse lay-up to beat Wisconsin comes to mind. But those were his only points of the game. M.J. Rice showed some great skill with his recent 19 point game, but that came against an overmatched Texas Southern squad (currently #253 on KenPom). He hasn’t been solid against the better teams on the schedule. Joe Yesufu is having a better season than last year, but he is clearly still playing at a level below the starters at the guard/wing positions. The various bigs have shown some skill, but nothing consistent enough to earn minutes. One game Udeh looks good, the other he doesn’t. And so on down the line.

Without further ado, I decided to rank the benches at KU by season. Before doing so I made some predictions on who would be the worst. My prediction was that the 2023 team will be second-worst, behind the 2012 team. But I also wanted to find out which benches were the best, and how 2023 compares to historic norms. To quantify this, a few rules are put in place. First, the main five starters will be deemed the starters, while anyone else is a bench player. Starting rotations can fluctuate, but for basically all seasons a starting 5 will emerge for Self during February and into March. Second, the quantitative measure will be total bench WAR over total team games played. This is to normalize the metric by number of games. Third, to make the number stand out better, we will convert it to a 36-game schedule. Last, the time period will be the Self-era (2004 through 2023). 20 seasons is good enough.

Results:

*The 2019 team lost Azubuike (to injury) in early January and Vick (personal reasons) in early February. Still, the starting 5 was clearly those 5 before these issues arose, so despite starting at the end of the year, guys like Agbaji and McCormack are considered “bench players.”

**The 2015 team lost Alexander (to eligibility) at the end of the year, and Lucas was the starter into March. Traylor actually made more starts than Lucas, but down-the-stretch it was Lucas as the starter. Traylor and Alexander are considered “bench players” for this exercise.

With the caveats out of the way, the Norm. column is what we want to focus on. It shows, per a 36-game schedule, how much bench value was provided that season. The average KU team provides 1.59 WAR off the bench over the course of 36 games. Most benches provide positive WAR on the season (14/20 or 70%). We see trends, with Self having better benches during the early years. The next chart will be the same as above, just sorted from best to worst.

My initial projections on the worst benches were close. The 2023 team has had the worst bench in the last 20 years, however this is only after 10 games. Expect this number to trend closer to 0 as Self continues to be more selective in who he plays. The 2004 team had the second-worst bench. The best bench player that year was a partial-starter in David Padgett. Others off the bench that season were Michael Lee, Bryant Nash, Jeff Hawkins, Christian Moody, and Moulaye Niang. Not a lot of great choices there.

The 2012 team is the team which had the most success while having a negative-value bench. The national runners-up relied heavily on the starting 5. Bench guys like Conner Teahan and Kevin Young provided small, positive WAR, but the others (Tharpe, Wesley, and the walk-ons) caused that number to drop below zero.

On the flip side, both the 2007 and 2008 teams had tremendous benches. The 2008 National Champions played essentially 7 starters. Collins and Kaun had great seasons off the bench and would have been starters almost anywhere else around the country. Even the 8^th and 9^th men on that team (Rodrick Stewart, Aldrich) added value. 2007 was similar, with Collins coming off the bench. In addition, posts Arthur and Jackson (who would win starting roles that following year) played great as reserves.

Getting back to 2023. The player with the most value off the bench is Michael Jankovich, who has scored 8 points on 3-4 shooting in 13 minutes. This is a far cry from say, the 2011 bench, which had T-Rob and Mario Little filling in nicely for the Morris twins.

If the 2023 bench doesn’t show signs of improvement, Self will likely rely on his starters even more. K.J. Adams, despite playing out of position, has given KU five consecutive above-bubble performances (and 7/10 this year) as he has settled into a non-traditional 5-man role. Kevin McCullar’s last two games have been his best on the season, and his offense and defense have started to fit in nicely to what KU wants to do. Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick, and Dejuan Harris have been consistently solid. It’s apparent when any of those guys are off the court, so I expect them to play around 35 minutes each in close games, leaving little time for their backups.

Last, here is the WAR for the 2023 team. The top 5 are starters, below that, the bench:

Kansas 95, Missouri 67

2023 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2023 Kansas Jayhawks went 28-8 (13-5). The team won the Big 12 Regular Season Championship and earned a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas reached the Round of 32 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference page is here.

Offense

The 2023 Offense was led by Jalen Wilson. Wilson’s shot frequency was the team’s highest since Thomas Robinson in 2012 also had a 31.1% ShotFreq. Despite his high volume, Jalen was right on pace with the team average regarding true shooting percentage (TS%). Gradey Dick was the team’s second most-valuable player on offense, generating his value through scoring and high-percentage outside shooting. His ability to limit turnovers also was a plus. K.J. Adams was the other starter to add offensive value, largely due to his offensive rebounding and efficiency. Dajuan Harris improved the most toward the end of the season. Over his last 13 games, Juan was over +1.00 per game on offense.

Defense

The 2023 defense was the better half of the ball for Kansas. Despite playing an undersized starting 5, KU finished the season as KenPom’s #11 defense. Dajuan Harris earned Big 12 DPOY honors, and his value is quantified best here at over 2 points per game above-bubble. Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar were also excellent defensive players. Gradey Dick was someone who got overly criticized for his defense. While he had some struggles, he hustled, rebounded, and had a fair amount of deflections. In total, he produced an above-bubble defensive effort to compliment the value he provided on the offensive side of things. K.J. Adams was around bubble-level while playing out of position. The bench had some acceptable defenders, with Joe Yesufu probably getting overlooked the most. Joe wasn’t a lock-down defender, but he also used his strength and quickness to bother bigger players. Freshman Ernest Udeh showed the most defensive potential as an athletic and long big-man. It will be interesting to see how his career develops on this end of the floor.

Total Adjusted PPGAB +/-

Jalen Wilson put up an All-American level of value, and with it, a 1st team nod. All starters were positive, while each bench player producing at or below-bubble. KU’s bench was bad this season, and finished as the worst in Self’s 20 seasons in Lawrence.

Value Seen 3 Ways

Player value can be shown in slightly different ways. This is because players have different levels of playing time based on a variety of factors. To best show this, we want to consider these four levels of player value.

First is PPG +/-. This is generally the best metric as it tracks closest with the traditional stats that are most intuitive to basketball fans, such as points per game or rebounds per game. This value metric estimates how much better, in net points per game, a player has been above that of a hypothetical bubble-level player.

Second is Per 100 possessions +/-. This value metric looks at how much better a player has been over a bubble-level player over the course of 100 possessions. This metric is valuable when comparing players who’ve played in different numbers of games but similar minutes. KU’s bench players, who tend to battle each other for backup playing time this season, are best compared against one another using this metric rather than PPG +/-.

Third is WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. This value metric compares KU players against a hypothetical replacement player who is an average D1 player instead of the (better) bubble-level player. It also converts points +/- into “wins” using a multiple. This metric is cumulative, so players with more minutes will have the chance to earn more WAR (provided they are above replacement…below replacement players will see their values dip).

Fourth is POCWAB, or Player’s Own Clutch Wins Against Bubble. This metric takes into account to relative toughness of the opponent, allowing a player to show his “clutchness” and weights games played against teams around bubble-level more than those low-major buy games.

Cumulative Points Above Bubble on the Season Chart

This chart is a telling picture of how the team’s starting 5 carried KU. Each starter is solidly positive, but this value begins to drop once you get to the bench. Ernest Udeh was KU’s best rotation bench player, yo-yoing above and below bubble on the season game-to-game. The reserve guards/wings were mostly dreadful, while the other bench bigs didn’t get many minutes.

Assessing the 2023 Team

Back in mid-October, the 2023 team’s value-stats were projected here.

Given who was returning, and attempting to project how good the incoming players would be, we estimated KU would have an average game score of +5.76. The 2023 team outperformed this benchmark by about 1 point. Given historic trends, KU’s estimated game score would have placed it around a 4-seed, whereas KU earned a 1-seed due to a great record in close games. With its toughest-in-the-nation strength of schedule and 17 Quad-1 wins, KU earned a 1-seed despite the various computer metrics placing the team around 10th. While the team lost in the second-round to an 8-seed, it was only 4 point favorites at tip, making the early exit less of an upset than one normally associates with 8-seed over 1-seed games. In total, the team overachieved in the regular season and underachieved in the Tournament. While one wishes these scenarios were reversed, they aren’t completely without hardware. The team did win a Big 12 Title outright by going 13-5. In (parentheses) are the preseason projections for the individual’s Adj PPG +/-. Actuals are in the table above.

Getting to individual performances, Jalen Wilson outdid his projection (+2.79) by nearly 3 value points per game. He became the volume scorer the team needed him to be, and finished the season as a 1st-team All-American thanks to the highly productive season he had.

Dajuan Harris was KU’s second-best player over the course of the season, and his season also exceeded expectations greatly (-0.28). It seems odd now that he was projected to be a (slightly) below-bubble player. But that is what he was his first two seasons. Harris showed an improved ability to score the ball, and became more comfortable running the show and making reads off the high-ball screen. His defense was also greatly improved, as evidenced by his conference DPOY award.

Gradey Dick’s freshman season was about as projected (+1.57). He started out the season on fire from behind the arc, but as teams started to defend him more aggressively he had to find other ways to contribute. It was the best freshman season since Devon Dotson in 2019, and despite the high expectations, Dick was the only newcomer to meet his projected score in 2023.

Kevin McCullar, a veteran newcomer, was slightly below his projected value (+1.94). This shouldn’t discount his season, which was still solid. Kevin’s defense was certainly where his value was. He was less of a stingy defender than expected, but he made up for this by proficient rebounding and forced turnover numbers. He was capable at switching and communicating things as well. KU isn’t anywhere near the 10th best defense without him.

K.J. Adams (+0.28) didn’t exceed expectations by as much as one might think, however a per-game above-bubble value score is only one way to quantify player value. Adams’ projection was premised on the idea he would get fewer minutes and play out-of-position less. The fact he was KU’s starting 5, played nearly 68% of available minutes, and still reached expectations means quite a bit. He was able to utilize the mismatch on the offensive side of things, being quicker than most opposing 5’s. His defensive rebounding was a work-in-progress for most of the year (although it did improve). His position moving into future seasons will be something to watch. While he proved he can handle the 5, where he plays will be predicated on the roster construction. If he does move to the power-forward role, expect his defense to improve (as he defends more perimeter-oriented players) and his offense to worsen (as he would be guarded by quicker players).

Ernest Udeh (+0.12) didn’t finish above-bubble as forecast, but he wasn’t too far off. Udeh was KU’s best bench player, and showed the most upside. While he is still underdeveloped on the offensive side of the ball, he should prove to be a good to great defender in upcoming seasons. And with a PG as good as Dajuan Harris finding him for lobs, he should still project to produce for the KU offense next season. Watch out, Udeh should be a good one.

Zuby Ejiofor (-0.18) was around his projection. Zuby’s rebounding abilities and instinct as a freshman were impressive. Like Udeh, he has great potential to be a very good defender on the interior. Questions still surround his offensive capabilities. If he can develop a back-to-the-basket game, it would improve his chance for minutes in future seasons.

Joe Yesufu (-0.35) had an improved season from last, but one still not good enough to reach projections. Joe shot poorly again in 2023 (28.6% from 3), while at least his defense did reach positive-value. To defend Yesufu a bit, he played more minutes than projected and had a Per100 score that was close to projection.

Zach Clemence (+0.47) was the most-disappointing returnee. After a freshman year that saw some him show toughness in moments (at TCU in 2022) and big shots (home vs. OU in 2022), he was picked to be the guy to have that sophomore jump. It never came, and instead went to K.J. Adams. Clemence graded out as a worse defender in 2023 while he never could get his shot to fall.

M.J. Rice (+0.69) was obviously over-projected, as one would expect his adjustment to be easier for a wing than it would be for the freshman bigs. Partly due to injury, Rice never got established in the rotation and didn’t see any court time in the NCAA Tournament. Rice was negative on both sides of the ball for the season. He showed flashes of potential (19 points vs. Texas Southern), but how much better he gets in future years will depend on how hard he is willing to work.

Bobby Pettiford (-0.59) had the worst season of any returning player and anyone who played at least 10% of available minutes. He missed his (already quite low) projected score by over 1 ppg. Injury issues were also a problem for him, but he hasn’t shown much over the past 2 seasons to project much success moving forward. He had trouble taking care of the ball at times, which is the one thing you absolutely needed from a player of his role.

Cam Martin (-0.31) played 10 and 1/2 minutes in an injury-affected season. Known for his shooting coming in, Martin went 3-4 from the floor and grabbed 2 offensive boards in that time. He only appeared in four games, but his biggest moment would come in his final game (at Texas Tech), where he would make a basket off a Pettiford feed in the 1st half in what would turn out to be a 3-point game. Martin’s defense and lateral quickness was worse than the other bigs.

Kyle Cuffe (-0.35) played a little of 6 minutes before a season-ending injury in November. He didn’t score during his time on the court. After redshirting in 2022, and no doubt getting a medical redshirt in 2023, he still has 4 more seasons of college basketball eligibility. One doesn’t know what his career will look like, but he still has time to figure that out and one hopes he can stay healthy.

Michael Jankovich (-0.36) reached his projection in limited playing time by sharp shooting (4-7 from 3). One wonders how close the staff was to playing him for a minute or so in a close game given his shooting abilities and the fact the other bench guards struggled.

Dillon Wilhite (-0.53) didn’t play much, but did get a rebound in his 7 minutes of play.

Kansas 69, Duke 64

Against Duke, Jalen Wilson produced 8.53 points of value above bubble, which is the highest in a game for a Jayhawk this season. Wilson led the Hawks to victory with his 25 points and 11 rebounds.

Dejuan Harris was the second-most valuable KU player, doing so mostly with his defense. He was credited with 10 official assists, although only 6 were actually value-added according to CtH. The official scorer was generous with assists for some reason. Harris’s defensive presence helped KU win the game, as he gave up only 2 points in nearly 35 minutes of play.

Moving down the list, K.J. Adams and Gradey Dick each had positive games and made big plays late to help seal the win. Of Gradey’s 14 points, 12 were on an assist. Adams didn’t win many defensive possession (exactly 1 rebound, steal and forced turnover each); his value was in only giving up 6 points to Duke.

Joe Yesufu didn’t score but also didn’t get scored on. He had a steal and drew a charge. Zuby Ejiofor grabbed some rebounds and added a lob dunk to play nearly at bubble-level. Bobby Pettiford only scored 2 points with 1 assist. Kevin McCullar scored 12 points but gave up 14. It was his worse defensive outing, even adjusting for opponent quality. Last, Ernest Udeh struggled on both ends. He failed to score but gave up 7 points in his 13 minutes of play.

The TEAM score of 11.50 was KU’s best of the season.

So far through 3 games, KU’s value scores look like this:

As mentioned in the deep dive of Jalen Wilson earlier in the year, it was entertained that Jalen would have to take on so large a role on offense for this team that his defense would decline. This has been the case through 3 games. Harris’s defense has been superb to this point, but his offense is likewise positive despite the limited scoring (7.3 ppg in 30 mpg). His assist numbers are what’s driving his offensive value. Gradey Dick’s offense is outpacing his defense. Kevin McCullar’s defense has been overall solid, with his offense a step behind.

Does KenPom have a Consistency Problem Rating Player Value?

With one game in the books, KU’s list of players looks like this on KenPom:

Pretty straightforward. KenPom breaks down players into categories based on their offensive “usage rate.” He also ranks players nationally based on a black-box algorithm. We see that Jalen Wilson is #6 In this national ranking (after one day of play). Again, this makes enough sense. Jalen had 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists on a very good 129.8 efficiency. So Jalen Wilson should have been the team’s MVP in the Omaha game, correct?

I guess not. This is the KenPom box score from the Omaha game. We clearly see that Gradey Dick is listed as the MVP for this game. And good for him. He had 23 points on 9-13 FGA. This efficiency is certainly very valuable. For what it’s worth, he graded out as CtH’s MVP for this game as well.

But it doesn’t take a skilled logician to see that there is a disconnect here. If Gradey Dick was the team’s MVP for the one and only game so far, this means that he’s been the team’s most valuable player for the entire season. So why is he not listed above Jalen Wilson (who is said to be #6 nationally)? Note that anyone without a number has a ranking outside the top 10. This just doesn’t follow:

Here’s what Ken has to say about his Player of the Year ranking:

The kPOY is not meant to predict who will win the Naismith or Wooden awards. This is a standalone honor designed to identify the most valuable player in the game, free of reputation, future potential, or amount of times the player appears on Big Monday. I’ll track the candidates every week until tourney time, and then we’ll have a season-ending awards ceremony two days after the title game. (Yes, the kPOY will be the one award that includes NCAA tournament play. About time.) [Emphasis added].

If Ken were projecting player of the year, then it might make sense for a returnee like Jalen Wilson to have some pre-built weighting his kPOY score. But according to his own words, Pomeroy is calculating the best players only of games actually played. So what gives? Why does he have Dick > Wilson in the game box score, but Wilson > Dick for the season to this point?

My guess is that the algorithm heavily weights usage rate. Expanding a bit on the initial image, let’s see the actual usage rates for KU players after one game:

There are actually two usage rates Pomeroy calculates. The first, listed as %Poss, looks at the percentage of possessions a player uses while on the court (with 20% being mean, obviously). %Shots looks only at the number of shots that player takes. These numbers can differ somewhat, depending on assists, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. Gradey Dick’s %Poss usage is much lower than his %Shots usage, likely because he only had 1 offensive rebound, 1 turnover, and 1 assist. In contrast, Jalen Wilson had 1 offensive rebound, 2 turnovers, and 7 assists. He was involved in more plays, thus the higher %Poss number.

This still doesn’t justify the inconsistency. There are arguments to be made whether or not Gradey or Jalen had the best game Monday night. Matt Tait went with Jalen.

As mentioned prior, CtH had Gradey Dick as the best Jayhawk. The one caveat is that CtH has additional defensive stats that Pomeroy and Tait don’t capture. We don’t blame them for that. It should be added that defensive metrics take longer to normalize. So, if you just look at our offensive value stats, you’ll get a decent idea of who played the best per box score numbers. We have Gradey Dick with +4.95 points of value vs. Jalen Wilson with +4.07 points of offensive value. This isn’t a huge difference, but it adds further confirmation that Gradey was the game MVP.

So why isn’t he the team MVP one game into the season? The only reason must be that Pomeroy uses a different algorithm for the season, and it takes into account usage rate. Because Dick is a “role player” (only using 17.7% of possessions), his very high efficiency and strong production is discounted. This is unfortunate. Usage doesn’t really need to be taken into account, as efficiency and production can be balanced together to give us player value. With more usage, more production will come. It isn’t usage that is important; it is production. Higher efficiencies are possible with less usage, but this will come at a cost (lower production).

I suppose that’s the lesson in all of this. Despite the recent increase in adopting new stats such as usage rate, the most relevant stat in assessing player value is points per game. It encapsulates so much of what the “advanced stats” try to.

Kansas 94, Pittsburg State 63

The 2022 National Champions looked sluggish to start, falling behind as much as 15, midway through the first half. However, the Hawks quickly turned it around and ran away from the Gorillas to win 94-63 in the team’s only televised exhibition matchup. The games will start to count for real on Monday when the Omaha Mavericks come to visit. In terms of most to least valuable, here is how the Jayhawks graded out against Pitt St.

Kevin McCullar +8.90

The Texas Tech transfer finished with 13 points, but it was his defense which stood out. He only allowed 1 point, while winning 11 possessions because of a steal, rebound, block, or forced turnover. While he may have benefited from his man missing an open shot here or there, it’s clear he is a legitimate plus defender who will almost certainly grade out as the team’s best over the course of a 31+ game schedule. He will do best getting his points in transition, although he can make the occasional 3.

Gradey Dick +6.01

The 5-star frosh started slowly, but got into the action with a backdoor cut for a dunk. From there his full offensive game was on display. Ripping open 3’s with a ridiculously quick and pure jumper. Running the floor. Finding the open man. Hustling to get tip-ins. Cutting backdoor and finishing off a reverse while drawing contact. All-in-all he had 20 points on 9 FGA’s. The question will be his defense. He doesn’t have to be an all-conference player on the defensive end to add value, but will he do enough to ensure that teams don’t pick on him at that end. Either way, he has earned a starting nod.

Zuby Ejiofor +3.97

Despite playing a shade under 10 minutes, Ejiofor finished with 8 points and 4 rebounds. He was KU’s best interior player in this game, showing how he can compliment a team with skilled wings and guards who know how to find the open man. Like any freshman, up and down games are to be expected. But he appears to be ahead of schedule in his development.

Ernest Udeh +2.18

The other freshman big man got the start, but played sparingly afterwards. He finished with 4 points and 3 boards while not giving anything up on the other end. Udeh’s size and activity will net him minutes this season, but it is apparent that certain defensive matchups will be trouble.

Jalen Wilson +1.66

Jalen went for 23 and 4. He started slow but ended up having a decently efficient game in the end. Defensively, his second half was much cleaner than the first period. Wilson is clearly Kansas’s best iso-scorer, given his ability to put the ball on the deck and score through contact. Since he will be KU’s number one option, he will have to learn to adapt to different defensive schemes he will face this season.

Kyle Cuffe +0.59

Cuffe’s score is due to his defensive effort in not allowing a point. He played 12 minutes, seemed to rotate well, and put some pressure on in-bounds plays to force turnovers. On offense, he looked raw but did have a nice finish in transition. Cuffe’s minutes will increase if he can take care of the ball and win hustle plays.

Dillon Wilhite -0.10

The redshirt freshman walk-on only saw 41 seconds and a few moments of action. The entry pass to him was deflected out of bounds, hence a score near 0.

Zach Clemence -0.48

Clemence’s unadjusted score was positive, but when you add the team factor of a D-2 school in, it becomes below bubble. But don’t less this distract from the nice game Zach had. He finished with an efficient 7 points and 4 rebounds in 14 minutes. He did give up a few 3-pointers on defense, which might have partially been due to bad luck (other Kansas players gave up open looks that weren’t hit…as the season goes on this luck factor will balance out).

Bobby Pettiford -0.98

Like Clemence, Pettiford did some nice things despite the negative score. He was quick and active, creating scoring opportunities for teammates and pressuring at the point while on defense. Pettiford probably won’t ever be a “scoring guard,” but if he can get out in transition, he will provide more on that end than in the half-court.

Michael Jankovich -1.33

Jank had a 3 and an assist in six-and-a-half minutes of play, but also gave up a 3 on defense. He played well, but probably won’t see much action despite his lethal ability to shoot.

Dejuan Harris -3.21

The starting PG did some things well. He finished with 10 assists to 3 turnovers, and added 6 points. He also had some steals and pressured the ball well at times. Like others, his negative score is due to the adjustment factor, as his unadjusted score was slightly positive. The concern this season with Juan is the same as it has been in the past. He does his PG duties well, but does he score enough and “play big” enough on defense to add value? KU switches a bunch, and at times he will lose his man and give up a cheap basket. Let’s put it this way. If Harris doesn’t make a ton of jumpers, he can’t be giving up decent 3-point looks to the opposing guards he faces.

K.J. Adams -4.34

The sophomore forward not only started the game, he also played a decent chunk as the “5” man. He scored 4 points with 2 assists, and had the highest +/- on the team with a +31. So how was his value score so low? Well, he had some sloppy turnovers, but the biggest reason was he didn’t rebound. In 21 minutes, he had 1 rebound for the whole game. Adams is a possible plus-defender with the ability to be a very good defender, but he has to rebound the ball.

Joe Yesufu -11.14 It’s tough to overstate how bad of a game Yesufu had. He forced up numerous bad shots, lost his man in defensive rotations, and while playing off the ball didn’t contribute anything in terms of assists. It’s clear the team wants him to be aggressive, but there is a line between aggressiveness and poor shot selection.

A look ahead to the Regular Season

You can learn a lot in exhibition games, even if the level of competition isn’t equivalent to what the team will be facing for the bulk of the season. Having watched the game, here’s what I expect in terms of rotations, playing time, etc. moving forward. Also, keep in mind that Kansas will have additional “buy games” which should allow them additional possessions to experiment with lineups before conference play starts.

Starters:

Given how the team looked, expect the starting 5 to look like this on Monday. Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, Adams. This puts Adams as the starting 5, which isn’t ideal. As indicated above, Adams did worse than the other three big men in terms of player value, even though his box score +/- was the team’s best. But like Pitt State, Omaha won’t have a ton of size. I expect the coaches to go with the experience of K.J. for game one.

Gradey Dick’s performance was too good to ignore. His presence on the court should open up driving lanes for others like Wilson and McCullar. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t the worst on the team either. He deserves to start, but even if he doesn’t start, he will play serious minutes. The other three are definite starters.

Rotation:

In addition to the starters, the rotation will consist of Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Udeh, and one of either Cuffe/Yesufu/Rice.

Starting with Pettiford, who looked great with the ball in his hands in the exhibition. It’s clear from the rotations that the staff wants to play either Harris or Pettiford as PG. One of these two will be in the game, but rarely will they play together. In fact, against Pitt State, the two played a combined 40 minutes and 45 seconds, with the only overlap coming at the end of the 1^st half. Other than that, it was one or the other at PG.

Next comes the three big men. There’s a chance one of these three starts over K.J. on Monday. Either way, each will get time at the “5” spot. Additionally, KU looked okay with both Clemence and Ejiofor on the floor together. Given Clemence’s ability to shoot, playing these two together doesn’t hurt the team’s spacing on offense. It would be defense that would be the concern. It will be interesting to see what Coach Roberts does.

The last question, and the one that seems the least clear, is the question of the reserve off-ball guards/wings. Joe Yesufu didn’t play any point guard against Pitt State, and all signs seem to indicate that the coaches see him as a scoring guard and not a point. However, he didn’t play great on either end in this role. Looking at his stats last year, Joe was best with the ball in his hands, playing point. But it’s clear that the coaches are happy with Harris/Pettiford at this position, hence the reason to shift Joe to the off-guard spot.

Kyle Cuffe likewise had some struggles, but did look a little sharper than Yesufu. And last, how serious is the injury to M.J. Rice? He will seemingly be out for some time, but is this a few weeks, a month, or longer? In the exhibition, both Cuffe and Yesufu played quite a bit on the court together. I think the reason for this was that Self wanted to see which one he liked better. To me this was Cuffe, but I wasn’t super-impressed by him either.

Ultimately, the main rotation will consist of:

PG: Harris / Pettiford

Wing: McCullar / Yesufu

Wing: Dick / Cuffe

4: Wilson / Adams

5: Udeh / Clemence / Ejiofor

With Clemence and Adams having the potential to play either the 4 or 5, and the wings being interdependent. Also, McCullar and/or Dick could play the “4,” it really is fluid aside from the PG and post positions.

Projected minutes is another way to do it. This will be for roughly the first 5 games, understanding that this is flexible based on game score and matchups.

Harris: 26

McCullar: 30

Wilson: 30

Dick: 28

Adams: 15

Pettiford: 14

Clemence: 14

Udeh: 13

Ejiofor: 13

Cuffe: 10

Yesufu: 7

The minutes distro between Harris/Pettiford will be 40 or very close to it. The minutes distro between Udeh/Clemence/Ejiofor will be close to 40, with Adams playing some 5 at times but Zach playing some 4 at times as well. The off-guards/wings will be 120, so 120 between the likes of Adams, Wilson, Dick, McCullar, Yesufu, and Cuffe.