The recent 2024 player projection write-up has KU with an average game score of +8.51. This correlates to a 2-seed on average. This post will look at KU’2 2024 season from a median, worst case, and best case scenario.

Median

The median scenario sees the Jayhawks with a +8.51 average score and 2-seed and was the scenario predicted in the link above. In this scenario, KU uses a strong starting 5 and solid 6th man to find success amidst a difficult schedule. The median projection views KU’s offense being dependent on Hunter Dickinson to score and create. Among the 9 rotation players, only Dickinson and fellow transfer Nicolas Timberlake are expected to be better offensive players than defensive players. So while questions about outside shooting and guard isolation scoring will come up during the season, this will be balanced by excellent guard/wing defense from the likes of Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, and K.J. Adams.

Projecting NCAA Tournament results are difficult due to the single-elimination format, but as a 2-seed KU would have a good shot of getting out of the first weekend. The median scenario would see this team as an Elite 8/Sweet 16 team most often, with still an outside shot of making a Final Four. If this were a betting website, the over/under for tournament wins would likely be 2.5.

Worst Case

The worst case scenario implies a reasonable worst case scenario (KU could lose its starting 5 to season-ending injuries, but this is very unlikely). In this scenario, one of its key players struggles with an injury and this weakens an already depleted roster. KU’s offense could also struggle as teams force McCullar and Adams to make jump-shots while forcing the ball out of Dickinson’s hands. On defense, while it’s difficult to see KU being bad on this end, teams could put Dickinson in high-ball pick-n-rolls and take advantage of Self’s propensity to switch screens.

If KU were to struggle enough, it could lose games it was projected to win preseason and find itself slipping down into the 5-6 seed range. In this range, a First Round upset loss is more likely and a second-weekend in the NCAA’s less likely. For KU’s worst case scenario to be a comfortable NCAA Tournament team is something most teams can’t say a few weeks before the season starts.

Best Case

The best case scenario is the most fun to think about. Again, this is a reasonable projection. We aren’t expecting KU’s three true freshmen to all play as 2024 lottery picks or for Timberlake to average 25 points per game. But we do see a situation in which Hunter Dickinson’s numerous offensive skills lift the games of other around him. We do see a reasonable chance for KU’s defense to work together so well it takes care of potential problems from a few of its weaker links, and becomes the best defense in the country. Shooting improvements from McCullar and Adams can make a difference in key situations. We aren’t projecting all of these things, but there is a chance things can work out well.

In this scenario, KU earns a 1-seed for the third consecutive year. Assuming Coach Self can stay healthy and KU’s draw isn’t as tough as last season’s, a run to the Final Four and beyond is certainly within reach. The average 1-seed wins about 3.4 games per tournament (since 1985), so an over/under of 3.5 wins would be a reasonable line. Winning the National Championship can be a goal for this team.