2024 Prediction Scenarios

The recent 2024 player projection write-up has KU with an average game score of +8.51. This correlates to a 2-seed on average. This post will look at KU’2 2024 season from a median, worst case, and best case scenario.

Median

The median scenario sees the Jayhawks with a +8.51 average score and 2-seed and was the scenario predicted in the link above. In this scenario, KU uses a strong starting 5 and solid 6th man to find success amidst a difficult schedule. The median projection views KU’s offense being dependent on Hunter Dickinson to score and create. Among the 9 rotation players, only Dickinson and fellow transfer Nicolas Timberlake are expected to be better offensive players than defensive players. So while questions about outside shooting and guard isolation scoring will come up during the season, this will be balanced by excellent guard/wing defense from the likes of Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, and K.J. Adams.

Projecting NCAA Tournament results are difficult due to the single-elimination format, but as a 2-seed KU would have a good shot of getting out of the first weekend. The median scenario would see this team as an Elite 8/Sweet 16 team most often, with still an outside shot of making a Final Four. If this were a betting website, the over/under for tournament wins would likely be 2.5.

Worst Case

The worst case scenario implies a reasonable worst case scenario (KU could lose its starting 5 to season-ending injuries, but this is very unlikely). In this scenario, one of its key players struggles with an injury and this weakens an already depleted roster. KU’s offense could also struggle as teams force McCullar and Adams to make jump-shots while forcing the ball out of Dickinson’s hands. On defense, while it’s difficult to see KU being bad on this end, teams could put Dickinson in high-ball pick-n-rolls and take advantage of Self’s propensity to switch screens.

If KU were to struggle enough, it could lose games it was projected to win preseason and find itself slipping down into the 5-6 seed range. In this range, a First Round upset loss is more likely and a second-weekend in the NCAA’s less likely. For KU’s worst case scenario to be a comfortable NCAA Tournament team is something most teams can’t say a few weeks before the season starts.

Best Case

The best case scenario is the most fun to think about. Again, this is a reasonable projection. We aren’t expecting KU’s three true freshmen to all play as 2024 lottery picks or for Timberlake to average 25 points per game. But we do see a situation in which Hunter Dickinson’s numerous offensive skills lift the games of other around him. We do see a reasonable chance for KU’s defense to work together so well it takes care of potential problems from a few of its weaker links, and becomes the best defense in the country. Shooting improvements from McCullar and Adams can make a difference in key situations. We aren’t projecting all of these things, but there is a chance things can work out well.

In this scenario, KU earns a 1-seed for the third consecutive year. Assuming Coach Self can stay healthy and KU’s draw isn’t as tough as last season’s, a run to the Final Four and beyond is certainly within reach. The average 1-seed wins about 3.4 games per tournament (since 1985), so an over/under of 3.5 wins would be a reasonable line. Winning the National Championship can be a goal for this team.

2024 Projections

KenPom released his preseason ratings earlier in the week. KU is ranked 2^nd with a 26.31 AdjEM. This was very close to the player build-up model that I predicted (26.16). See below:

Player	Off_PG	Def_PG	Tot_PG	Per100	% Min
Dajuan Harris	+0.20	+2.30	+2.50	+4.20	85.1%
Elmarko Jackson	-0.10	+0.20	+0.10	+0.20	68.1%
Kevin McCullar	-0.25	+1.96	+1.71	+3.25	75.1%
K.J. Adams	+0.45	+0.48	+0.93	+1.90	70.0%
Hunter Dickinson	+3.80	+1.38	+5.18	+9.25	80.0%
Nicolas Timberlake	+0.62	-0.31	+0.32	+0.75	60.0%
Johnny Furphy	-0.54	-0.30	-0.84	-6.30	19.1%
Jamari McDowell	-0.62	-0.10	-0.72	-6.02	17.1%
Parker Braun	-0.52	+0.13	-0.39	-2.75	20.1%
Michael Jankovich	+0.15	-0.30	-0.15	-5.00	1.4%
Justin Cross	-0.08	-0.08	-0.16	-6.50	1.0%
Chris Carter	-0.08	-0.08	-0.16	-6.50	1.0%
Wilder Evers	-0.12	-0.13	-0.25	-10.00	0.5%
Patrick Cassidy	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	-12.00	0.5%
Dillon Wilhite	-0.12	-0.13	-0.25	-8.00	1.0%
Zach Clemence
Charlie McCarthy
TOTAL	+2.97	+5.53	+8.51	+12.16	100.0%

Projected to Redshirt

Incoming transfer and Big 12 preseason player of the year Hunter Dickinson is the highest projected value player by far. This is due to his consistency while at Michigan as a prolific scorer and solid rebounder. Coach Self has called him the best offensive big man he’s had while at Kansas. In addition, knock on wood, Hunter has been healthy, having missed only 2 games in 3 seasons at Ann Arbor.

If there’s one question mark, it comes on the defensive end. Given the tendency among the game to play pick-n-roll ball and bring out the opponents’ 5-man, it can be a certainty that Dickinson will play plenty as the pick-n-roll defender and away from the basket. If teams can exploit him on this, it could bring down his score on the defensive end quite a bit. What Dickinson has going for him on defense is his rebounding prowess and low foul rates.

Dajuan Harris is projected to be KU’s second most-valuable player. His durability (estimated 85.1% minutes played) will be called upon now that KU is down to only 2 real ball-handlers (Elmarko Jackson) among its scholarship players. We project a slight improvement from last season’s Dejuan on both sides of the ball. He should see an increased number of 3-point attempts thanks to the departures of Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson.

Kevin McCullar’s unexpected return to Kansas will see him in an expanded roll, yet his shooting (which has consistently hovered around 30% from 3) is still a question. If he shoots as well as he has been rumored to in practice, he could make the highest leap of anyone. McCullar’s value comes in his defense; namely steals and rebounds. He defends adequately one-on-one but will give up an occasional basket.

K.J. Adams is sliding down to the 4 after playing the 5-spot primarily last season. He is even less of a shooter than McCullar, although with a true 3-point shooting center in Dickinson, having a power forward who can shoot is less of a requirement for spacing-purposes. K.J.’s strength and quickness will get him more baskets than you’d otherwise think by just watching his game. He gets putbacks, makes nice cuts to the rim, and will get the occasional alley-oop. His defense could also take a step up now that he will be guarding opposing 4 men instead of the 5’s.

The next two names are battling to be the 5^th starter at the off-guard position. Nicolas Timberlake has a slightly higher prediction, but everyone agrees Elmarko Jackson has the higher ceiling. Jackson is predicted as a first-round pick by many NBA mocks, something that hasn’t been taken into consideration in these preseason numbers but still should be in the back of your mind. For Timberlake, he’s the team’s best shooter and should generate spacing on the offensive end. His defense might not be great, but wings who move their feet and don’t fall asleep on defense usually grade out well.

Jackson’s rating is purely based upon his incoming class rating. He should have a fine season, but true freshmen rarely perform at the star level. Anything around replacement level will be enough to help this team. Jackson has Harris to guide him and guys like Dickinson and Adams to play through. He should thrive being around so many veterans.

After the top 6, the projected skill level drops. This isn’t the end of the world; KU’s top 6 should get the majority of minutes. Even including minutes played during blow-out non-conference games, KU’s top 6 is projected to get 87.7% of the total court-time. But the remaining 3 scholarship players will be called upon to do enough while filling in for the starters.

Parker Braun’s Per100 numbers are expected to tick up from last season (as he plays for a better coach in a better system and is a year older), and because his minutes should tick down it will help his per game mark assuming he gets into each game. He should perform comparably to Zuby Ejiofor last season. Braun was a good pickup given the departure of Ejiofor and fellow big man Ernest Udeh. Despite gaining Dickinson, KU got worse regarding its depth on the inside. It’s unfortunate the Jayhawks couldn’t hold on to a blossoming player like Udeh, but it’s part of the process with the portal. Key pickups can mean losing a young talent that doesn’t want to wait to play.

The remaining two wings are projected to be well-below bubble-level. As freshmen, Jamari McDowell and Johnny Furphy wouldn’t normally be asked to do much aside from bring energy and play their roles while filling in for the likes of McCullar, Adams, Jackson, and Timberlake. However, Coach Self has mentioned both as potential starters still. While this is likely coach-speak, it’s good to hear that both are holding their own.

Jamari McDowell’s score is predicated on his incoming rank. We see him as a better defender but less polished scorer than Furphy. Both players are quite athletic and have decent size/length. McDowell is one of the remaining initial commits that is projected to get playing time thanks to the departure or dropped commitments from numerous other wings. Furphy is a late signee who jumped on board after it was apparent that KU needed wing depth and has been compared to Svi.

Each player’s Per 100 predictions are better than M.J. Rice and Bobby Pettiford’s seasons last year. But it is tough to see either being key cogs in the rotation. Freshmen traditionally are either role players or one-and-done types.

The Jayhawks are redshirting Zach Clemence, a move confirmed by Bill Self many times. This means only 9 scholarship players. However, there are also 7 walk-ons with a few being skilled and athletic former scholarship players at other schools. Justin Cross and Chris Carter are those who played elsewhere before being invited walk-ons. Sharpshooter Michael Jankovich is also a name to watch out for. With the limited depth, a frustrated Self might turn to Jank in a pre-conference if he needs a floor-spacer. He’s done something similar with Clay Young in 2018.

The TEAM score is projected to be +8.51, a number that gets them an estimated KenPom AdjEM score of 26.16 (or 0.15 points away from KenPom’s own preseason mark). This mark is just an average estimate, one that includes the possibility of injury or underperformance from key pieces. A TEAM score of this projection would earn a 2-seed most often, of course depending on how many wins and losses the team has in close games. KU’s defense also should grade out better than its offense, something that KenPom predicts (KP has KU as the #9 offense and #1 defense).

Recent predictions have underestimated KU’s best players (2023 Jalen Wilson, 2022 Ochai Agbaji) while overestimating the contributions of the bench. This year we made sure to keep Dickinson higher than +5.00 despite questions on his defense. Another decision we made is to have each of KU’s top 9 players be expected to play in the full allotment of games. Perhaps Furphy or McDowell will DNP a few games but it shouldn’t be too many…barring injury.

It should be an exciting season. KU is bringing in the nation’s top transfer, fan-favorite veterans, a “legacy” transfer in Parker Braun, and solid freshmen with different skillsets.

Comparing the 2023 team to Preseason Expectations

For reference, at this point of the season, KU is 16-3 and about to play at Baylor. The season is about half-way done. Let’s look at each player compared to his preseason expectation in the value stat Adj. PPG +/-.

Dejuan Harris (RS Jr.) Projection: -0.28, Current: +1.79

The biggest question on Harris was if he could score more this season. Until recently, the answer was a resounding “yes.” In the past three games, he’s only scored 3 points (on 1-13 FGs and 0-0 FTs). Even when accounting for this recent scoring slump, Harris has scored at a better rate than past seasons. Looking at Per100 value, his scoring value was at -4.47 in 2021 and at -4.09 last season. This has improved to -2.32 this season. Improvement is this area is key. Harris will continue to recover value through his consistently strong ball-handling and defense. It is his scoring that will determine how successful of a player he will be in his career.

Speaking of Harris’ defense, it’s on this side of the ball where he’s improved more. He’s always had quick hands and been good at anticipating the opponent’s movements, but now he has tightened up his coverage skills and allowed fewer easy baskets. Last season he added +2.24 points based on his defensive coverage per 100 possessions, this season it is +4.40. These are subtle differences when watching the game, but it really adds up over the course of a season.

Projecting out the rest of the season, we know that Harris will play and play a lot. The team is going to need some more scoring out of him. He was in double-digits in half of his first 16 games. If he can put up 10+ points every other game or so, it will be enough to keep him around +2.00 in value per game for the season.

Kevin McCullar (Sr.) Projection: +1.94, Current +0.17

Kevin McCullar was KU’s big off-season transfer portal veteran pickup, continuing in the same vein as Remy Martin, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and Isaiah Moss. However, he has underperformed expectations due to inconsistent play and poor offense. McCullar had a poor start through his first 7 games, but picked up his play with great outings against Seton Hall and Missouri. Since that time, he’s been up-and-down, with 2 poor performances coming against K-State and TCU. As he goes, so goes the team. His best games have come in KU wins, particularly KU blowouts. His worst games have coincided with games where the team has struggled.

McCullar’s offense was the question mark coming in, and if anything, it’s only grown larger. His shooting is up-and-down (currently down), and he’s turning it over more frequently than in years past. He’s best when he’s cutting off the ball and attacking the offensive glass. He needs to get comfortable in that role, and find his shot again, for him to be the type of player he was brought to Kansas to be.

Defensively, he’s been great at times. He gets steals, rebounds, and forces turnovers at a strong rate. At times he’s been out of position or gambled to the point of giving up an easy basket. In total, his defense is third-best on the team (this number fluctuates more than offense, by season’s end it could easily be second or first). He’s been about as good as advertised, although by tightening things up he could add even more for this team.

McCullar needs to find confidence with his shot and make decisive actions with the ball. He isn’t going to be the team’s best weapon on that end, but he’s good enough to be a neutral-value type player. The fact he’s losing -1.20 points per game against a bubble-level player is inexcusable.

Gradey Dick (Fr.) Projection: +1.57, Current +2.41

Freshmen are the toughest to predict. Recruiting rankings give us a rough idea as to how good the player is supposed to be, but sometimes it takes a while for it to click. KU’s had elite, 1-and-done types (like Andrew Wiggins). It has also seen top recruits struggle despite being given ample playing time and shot volume (Quentin Grimes, Bryce Thompson).

Gradey Dick has been one of the good ones. All of their games are slightly different, but KU has had a collection of very good freshmen wings over the years. Henry. McLemore. Wiggins. Oubre. Jackson. This season, Gradey Dick has continued that tradition. He’s the best shooter of the bunch, but he’s also improved his on-ball defense and rebounding. He also doesn’t force too much (low turnover numbers), keeping his value as high as possible.

Areas for improvement continue to be finishing at the rim and staying aware on defense. He’s been in a shooting slump recently, but that won’t last forever. He hustles and competes, therefore adding winning-plays even in games where he isn’t shooting efficiently. Still, his value this season will depend on how he shoots.

Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) Projection: +2.79, Current +6.04

One reason Jalen Wilson returned to Kansas this season was because he’d seen what other players (such as Ochai Agbaji) had done in returning. But Wilson has been even better than Agbaji was last season. Officially averaging 21.3 points per game, Wilson has been a solid defender and rebounder as well. He’s put together 17 positive-value games out of 19, which is a level of consistency not seen since Frank Mason in 2017.

It’s easy to say now, but Wilson’s projection was too conservative. Getting a higher volume of shots allows him to really extend his value-range, as he is a capable volume scorer. Without Wilson on this roster, KU would be a bubble-level team. He’s been that invaluable.

We mentioned that Kevin McCullar tends to play well in the games where KU plays well, conversely there is no correlation between Wilson’s best games and the team’s best games. If anything, Wilson does better in picking up his teammates during their worst performances. The key for Wilson is to not get stressed out or frustrated and try to do too much. The rest of the team will start to play well again at some point.

K.J. Adams (So.) Projection: +0.28, Current +1.30

Adams’ projection was based upon his athletic strengths and his defensive abilities. What was totally unexpected was his offensive skills. He averages double-figures on excellent efficiency, utilizing his skillset to play a small-ball 5 and take advantage of slower opponents. He is KU’s third-best offensive player so far this year, and closer to number two Gradey Dick than number four Dejuan Harris.

His defensive presence has been affected by his role as the team’s starting 5-man. He is still a solid perimeter defender for someone his size. He plays hard, draws charges, knocks the ball away, gets the occasional block, and so on. Yet he also gives up size inside and is a very weak rebounder. He is still a positive-value defender. If he could get his hands on a few more rebounds, this would quickly improve his defensive value.

Bobby Pettiford (So.) Projection: -0.59, Current -2.07

Getting now to reserves, Bobby Pettiford has the most minutes off the bench. He’s produced the most offense off the bench, shooting an efficient percentage while dishing out a fair amount of assists. However, the value he’s produced this season has been dreadful. He’s turning it over too much for a point-guard type, and despite his efficiency is not taking enough shots to add offensive value. On defense, he’s allowing 13.9 points per 60 possessions (the worst starter, Kevin McCullar is at 11.9 on far more minutes). Combined with his low numbers of rebounds and steals, his defense is -4.76 points per 100 possessions compared to a bubble-level player. His size is a factor, particularly on switches. He has not defended well, and I’m not sure why he checks in for late-game defensive possessions.

Joe Yesufu (Jr.) Projection: -0.35, Current -0.95

Yesufu has played a fair number of minutes as well backing up the starting wings. He’s shot about as poorly as last year. He did show some offensive skill in back-to-back 14-point outings against Tennessee and Texas Southern, but since that time he’s been bad. Injury may have something to do with this. On defense, he’s guarded better than others off the bench. He is adding a small amount of defensive value thanks to strong on-ball defense. He uses his strength and competes. He won’t get many steals or rebounds, but he is the best perimeter defender from the reserves.

Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) Projection: -0.18, Current -0.33

In the carousel which is the back-up 5-spot, Zuby Ejiofor has gotten the most minutes. He is performing about as well as expected. His defense outshines his raw offensive game at this point, and his per-100 rebounding value equates to +2.32 points above bubble. He has also done relatively well at disallowing his man easy baskets. He generally stays in a good position, staying between his man in the basket, which likely helps his rebounding numbers. He’d be my first choice off the bench going forward.

M.J. Rice (Fr.) Projection: +0.69, Current -1.11

Rice’s season has been plagued by ailments. His playing time has diminished significantly during conference play, and he hasn’t actually taken a shot since the Harvard game. He certainly exudes potential. Good size, athletic, skilled, etc. His defense has been the worse-half of his game, as he doesn’t do anything bubble-level on that end (coverage, pressure, or rebounding). For Rice to add value for this team, it will have to be in extended minutes and as an offensive weapon. Depending on how McCullar performs, it might be worth taking another shot with M.J.

Ernest Udeh (Fr.) Projection: +0.12, Current -0.51

Udeh is yet another under-performing bench player. His current value is also in limited playing time (less than 5 minutes per game KU has played). He does not play disciplined in the post, and will give up baskets to skilled and patient opponents. His offensive game is limited to plays at the rim. Yet, he too has potential. He was good enough in the preseason to earn a start against Pitt State in the exhibition game. He is excellent at finishing lob dunks and uses that frame to block shots. He had good outings early on, but against higher-level competition gets exposed.

Zach Clemence (So.) Projection: +0.47, Current -1.47

Clemence has greatly underperformed expectations. Last season, he was able to produce a season nearly at bubble-level thanks to good hustle plays (offensive rebounds, rim protection). With his capacity to shoot the ball, it seemed natural that he would play an important role on this year’s team. Things haven’t worked out that way. He’s been the worst per possession performer of any KU player to get rotation minutes (at least 10% of team’s available minutes). In fact, he is -14.6 per 100 possessions, which is nearly 7.0 points worse per 100 than Bobby Pettiford or M.J. Rice. If there is someone to drop from the rotation based on current in-game performance, at this point it has to be Zach.

Michael Jankovich (Sr.) Projection: -0.36, Current +0.38

Moving now to the part of the rotation that only gets spot minutes, or less than 10% of available court-time. Walk-on Michael Jankovich has added a small amount of value in his nearly 16 minutes. He’s scored 11 points on 4-5 shooting (3-4 from 3). While a few shots at the end of non-close games isn’t too relevant as projecting out future performance, he’s been KU’s best bench player. This raises the question, should he get a chance to play meaningful minutes? He can at least shoot.

Cam Martin (RS Sr.) Projection: -0.31, Current -0.71

Martin’s season got sidelined with a shoulder injury, but he came back to appear in 4 games and score 7 points. His offensive value per 100 is extremely good (thanks to limited minutes), whereas his defense is even worse (in part due to limited minutes). We really only have the eye-test to judge him on, as his stats aren’t over a large sample size. His best minutes came at Texas Tech, where he scored a basket, grabbed a rebound, and got a steal without any negative plays. It’s doubtful Martin plays more than 5 minutes in any one game. But we can’t write him off this team completely, either. He has offensive skills and a nice shot. Whether that can be utilized to help KU in the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament is another question.

Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.35, Current -2.00

Cuffe got injured in the team’s second game and has only played 6+ minutes. He isn’t schedule to return until February at the earliest, which may necessitate a medical redshirt. He was never expected to do much, but given how weak the bench has been, it would have been interesting to see if he could work himself into being a good defender at the very least.

Dillon Wilhite (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.53, Current -0.46

Dillon has played in 5 ½ minutes so far and has yet to take a shot (or record any stat save a foul). He has also given up 2 points. For a walk-on, this is typical.

Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.53, Current DNP

Charlie has yet to play. He didn’t suit up earlier in the season, which caused me to think he was injured. Since he redshirted last season, I didn’t think he could redshirt this year. Either way, his status is not known. He remains on this season’s list of active players in case he does appear. If he doesn’t ever play in 2023, he will be removed to indicate he didn’t appear.

2023 TEAM Projection: +5.76, Current +5.90

Not unlike last season, the TEAM score is very close to the preseason projection despite there being a wide variance in each player’s performance compared to estimate. Some do better, some do worse, and some do about as expected. In the end, this evens out somehow.

A team that is about +5.76 is expected to earn a 4-seed. At 16-3, KU is projected to be a 2-seed at this point. By winning most of its close games, KU has gotten itself a better chance at advancing through the bracket. But it still has to continue to win more close games than it loses.