Allen Fieldhouse has been redecorated. The 2022 banner has now been raised, so it seems like a good time to review the National Championship games in terms of player value.
Game Summary:
David McCormack was the game MVP for the Jayhawks. His value above bubble was added in the final two minutes. He made a put-back off his own miss to put KU up 70-69, walled up Armando Bacot to force a turnover, and then made the final basket of the game over Brady Manek to extend the score to 72-69. These three possessions made the difference.
Remy Martin was just below McCormack in terms of player value. He hit 3 huge second-half 3’s as well as a driving layup, with each shot answering Carolina runs which had brought the Tar Heels closer to the lead. Martin was KU’s best player in the tournament, adding 4.11 PPG above bubble during the 6 tournament games.
Christian Braun shook off a tough first half to finish in the black. His tough contest on the final shot made it impossible for Carolina to hit a miracle 3 to tie the game. Mitch Lightfoot fouled a lot, but when he was in he did enough to add value. He made his own shot, grabbed an offensive rebound, and forced a turnover to balance out the 3 FT’s he gave up. Ochai Agbaji didn’t record a counting play after his missed layup with 5:53 to play. but throughout the game, he did more good than harm, particularly in the first half when other Jayhawks were struggling. K.J. Adams contributed one play, forcing UNC into a turnover in the first half. Jalen Coleman-Lands grabbed a rebound for his contribution.
Jalen Wilson turned away from a dreadful first half to contribute to a comeback for the ages. Although he finished below bubble, he was very close to neutral. Dejuan Harris had the worse game of any Jayhawk, with his best stretch coming at the beginning of the second half. His worse blunder was stepping on the sidelines with 4 seconds left to give the Heels a final shot to tie. But by only scoring 2 points on 5 shots, he was KU’s weakest link in the game.
The TEAM score of +7.29 was KU’s 11th consecutive positive, above-bubble performance. While not the best overall game of the season, it was enough to get the win and with it KU’s 6th banner.
David McCormack had his 7th team-MVP game of the season
Game Summary:
David McCormack had 25 points Saturday against Villanova, but none bigger were the 2 he got after rebounding a Christian Braun miss with 5:50 to go. This basket put KU up 8, and Nova would never get closer as KU put the game away during its final run. Ochai Agbaji was on fire from deep (6-7) from 3, and Jalen Wilson’s double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds) and solid defense earned him another quality game.
Both Mitch Lightfoot and Christian Braun did enough to add small value. Braun had a tough first half, but made three huge shots down the stretch to ice the game. Neither Martin nor Harris had great outings, and this was partly due to a difficult matchup at the guard positions.
The five reserves all posted positive games as well, with Joseph Yesufu forcing a turnover.
The TEAM score of +23.40 is KU’s fourth-best of the season, and second consecutive game with a +20 score. The team plays in the National Championship game next.
David McCormack had his 6th team-MVP of the season
Game Summary:
Down 6 at halftime, not much was going well for Kansas. The team was only 13-31 from the floor (0-5 on 3’s), and worse still from the free-throw line (3-9). Despite the size and athletic advantage, the Hawks were being outrebounded 17 to 16. The results by player were mixed…Ochai Agbaji was playing okay; 6 points on 3-5 shooting, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 assist. Remy Martin also had 6 points on 3-7 shooting. Jalen Wilson had yet to score.
But David McCormack was quietly having a good game. He had 7 points in 10 minutes on 3-3 shooting, making his only FT attempt as well. He added 2 rebounds and had a +/- of +3, one of only 2 Jayhawks to have a positive first half +/-. Defensively, he only gave up 2 points in the half.
It makes sense that he would be the one to lead Kansas back in the second half. D-Mac scored the first 5 Kansas points (cutting the 29-35 deficit to 34-35). But his biggest highlight was in the midst of a 16-2 run. After Jalen Wilson missed a transition shot, McCormack pulled down an offensive rebound in traffic, battled through the contact, and finished for an and-1 to put KU up 7. His FT made it 8, and KU would never see the lead dip below 6 following that play.
When he checked out at 12:25, KU was up 7 and would go on another extended run to put the game away. Although Ochai Agbaji was the team’s leading scorer with 18 points, McCormack was the team’s most valuable player, adding 15 points while giving up only 2. He added 3 rebounds as well. This was McCormack’s first MVP since the first TCU game.
KU dominated the interior, as Mitch Lightfoot’s minutes were nearly equally as valuable as McCormack’s. But Mitch did it a little differently. Scoring 9 points, Mitch added more activity on defense, blocking a shot and getting boards. He also drew a charge. But like McCormack, he only allowed 2 points on defense.
Ochai Agbaji broke out of his slump to finish with 18 points. He was also active on defense, coming away with 4 steals. Remy Martin had his lowest scoring output of the NCAA Tournament, with 9, but he did other things to help his team win. 3 assists. 4 defensive rebounds. Solid perimeter defense. Ditto for Dejuan Harris. A nifty layup was part of the 5 points he scored, but he also added 4 assists and played stingy defense. After Kameron McGusty lit up KU in the first half, Harris took away Miami’s best weapon during the second half with strong defensive energy. Christian Braun had big plays in the second half, and although his score finished up below 0, it was due to him allowing points in the first half. He made adjustments and played well for Kansas when it counted.
The reserves also had good moments. Joseph Yesufu drew a charge. Jalen Coleman-Lands (finally) hit a 3, but he also played solid defense during the first half to not allow any points. Speaking of solid defense, K.J. Adams made an excellent block to keep KU within 6 at the end of the first half. Zach Clemence grabbed a board and Chris Teahan missed his only shot attempt.
A TEAM score of 26.53 is KU’s second-best outing of the year, only behind the Baylor game. Kansas is Final Four bound, and is playing its best ball at the right time. In its 7 post-season games, the Hawks are averaging a team score of +14.69.
D-Mac had a solid game on the offensive glass, and earned his 5th team-MVP of the season
Game Summary:
In an ugly game, David McCormack was actually a very solid contributor for Kansas, earning 8 second-chance opportunities for Kansas on the offensive end (although he had trouble finishing just as his teammates did). He also prevented his opponent from doing much damage scoring the ball, but failed to earn as many defensive rebounds as he should have. In all, despite the awkwardness and missed layups, D-Mac’s energy and presence helped KU last night.
Similarly, Jalen Wilson had a solid defensive game and added enough on offense to be on the plus side of the value-ledger. It wasn’t his man who was scoring the points for TCU. The other Jalen, JCL, played very well in his 6:32 of game time. Finishing with 2 3-pointers on 2/4 shooting, he also grabbed 3 rebounds (2 defensive, 1 offensive) without giving up points on defense.
The only other positive Jayhawk was Zach Clemence, who blocked a shot and then finished the possession ripping down a rebound as TCU kept getting second-chance looks. He had to leave the game due to a cut above his eye.
Hovering around 0 value were Christian Braun and Joseph Yesufu. CB had trouble finishing inside, but he played solid defense for the most part. Yesufu had success getting to the cup (2/2 FT’s getting fouled on a layup to go along with a made FG on a drive), but also gave up 5 points to offset what he scored.
Mitch Lightfoot started strong, scoring KU’s first 5 points, but his poor defensive positioning and rebounding soon cost KU. One of his replacements as a bench big-man, K.J. Adams, also had a rough night on defense. Guards Remy Martin and Dejuan Harris had mediocre games, with Harris doing a good job spreading the ball around (7 assists, 1 turnover) but little else (0 points scored, 10 points allowed). Martin hit a midrange jumper and gave up a 3, along with a missed shot and turnover. Overall, not a great game but not terrible.
The player who easily had his worst outing was Ochai Agbaji. Although he finished with 13 points, this was done on 18 shot attempts. He finished with a 0.56 Off PPP_af (this website’s version of ORating). His defense was even worse, as he gave up 23 points. Some of this was losing his man in the half-court, some was due to good defense that scored on, and some was due to his poor transition recovery. In all, the energy he has been expending on offense has cost him on the other end. The last two games Ochai has taken 38.7% and 28.8% of the team’s shots while in the game, upping his shot frequency to 27.4% on the season. This number doesn’t taken into account the type of shot, meaning it doesn’t account for how much more work Ochai is doing to get these shots up, many of which are unassisted opportunities. Simply put, Agbaji needs more help on offense, and needs to be more patient when he does have the ball.
For the team, this was their second-worst game of the season and the 7th game below bubble-level for KU. The Hawks got crushed on the glass and inside the paint, losing the rebounding battle 47-35 and shooting 35% from inside the arc while TCU shot 48.1%. The wings weren’t great at rebounding, but it was the guards (1 total rebound between Harris, Martin, and Yesufu in 47 combined minutes) that didn’t help out at all.
KU gets TCU tomorrow (March 3rd). Expect a far better effort on the glass, and a better game plan at getting Ochai better looks.
David McCormack had his best overall game of the season with a value score above +14.00 thanks to nearly 19 points of offensive production and only 3 points allowed on defense. Joe Yesufu and Jalen Wilson also had solid games. Ochai Agbaji’s offensive output of nearly 20 points produced was offset by allowing 17 points on defense. He did poorly on the possession side of the ledger (had more misses and turnovers than rebounds and steals) which contributed to a negative overall score.
The team’s +14.81 score is currently its 6th best performance of the season.
D-Mac and Harris carried Kansas, as each had his best game of the season on a night where neither Ochai Agbaji nor Remy Martin were available. McCormack was great, 7-7 FG’s and 14 points with 14 rebounds. He also played solid defense, although this was partially due to a good matchup. Harris’s night was his best offensive game of his career, he added value not only from scoring but also from 9 assists.
Jalen Wilson bounced back from a rough first half to finish with a positive score. Only giving up 8 points in 36 minutes shows how far his perimeter defense has come. Joseph Yesufu also had a positive game in 22 minutes of play, and his score is somewhat affected downward by his matchup. Iowa State is perimeter-oriented on the offense, meaning he was at risk for giving up more points than say, McCormack. Still, going forward if he continues to play well expect him to produce some positive minutes.
Everyone else had negative-value games. Bobby Pettiford didn’t play much. Jalen Coleman-Lands began the game with a few nice jumpers, but gave up some baskets on the other end as well as failed to get back in transition at times. Mitch Lightfoot wasn’t effective in his few minutes. Christian Braun missed a few shots he could have made, and also had some bad luck in giving up 3 of ISU’s 5 threes. Braun has been slumping of late, but looks like he could break out at any time. K.J. Adams had the worst game of his season, giving up the other 2 ISU threes in limited minutes. But as said earlier with Yesufu, more minutes will even out matchups and tough shots by opponents. For the year, K.J. has been a positive contributor who adds an element that other 5-men don’t have.
The team score of +14.82 is Kansas’s best game since West Virginia and the second-best of the calendar year of 10 games. To do so without Agbaji and Martin shows the team has depth and toughness.
KU’s playing time distribution was the most concentrated its been all year, meaning KU relied heavily on a few players instead of spreading the minutes to a number of players. The five starters plus Yesufu played all but 18 minutes. The HHI score was 0.751, which is well-above the season average of 0.643. This isn’t too surprising considering KU was without two key players.
David McCormack was the team’s most valuable player against Oklahoma State on 1/4/2022, his second MVP of the season. Dejuan Harris played the best defense, giving up only 4 points in 31 minutes.
KU defeated St. John’s by 20 in New York in the Big 12 / Big East Challenge game, improving to 6-1 in the non-conference. Below are the value scores for each player.
Christian Braun recorded the best game of any Jayhawk this season at +13.39. David McCormack had his second consecutive good outing, and both Ochai Agbaji and Remy Martin performed at a level we’ve been accustomed to seeing. K.J. Adams actually won 6 possessions from rebounds (5 offensive) in only 6 minutes, two more than what the official box score gave him. Despite only scoring 8 points so far in 7 games, K.J. is actually adding offensive value this season because of his rebounds.
The 2022 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 34-6 (14-4), having won the Big 12 Regular Season and Tournament Championships. The team earned earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and won the National Championship. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.
Offense
At +7.01, the 2022 team was KU’s third-best offense in the Self era, slightly behind 2017 and 2018. The team had an excellent mix of offensive talent, led by Ochai Agbaji. Agbaji finished with 17.0 points produced per game, which translated to +2.72 offensive points above a bubble-level player. David McCormack was KU’s second most valuable offensive player on a per game basis, producing 9.8 points per game but also adding value through offensive rebounding. His Offensive Efficiency of 1.35 was easily the highest of any starter.
Christian Braun was a steady player on offense, scoring in double figures in all but 5 games. He was good at the rim, shot well from outside, assisted nicely, and had his fair share of stick-backs and other hustle plays to bring value. Remy Martin got hot late in the season, carrying the Jayhawks when the team needed him. Had he been healthy the entire season, his numbers would have looked very good. Even where they are, he provided +1.33 points more per game than a replacement option would have been expected to add.
Jalen Wilson finished a fraction below +1.00, held back by poor perimeter shooting but buffered by rebounding and strong finishes at the rim. Given how many big moments he had, its crazy to think of him as only the fifth-best offensive player during the 2022 season.
Off the bench, both Jalen Coleman-Lands and Mitch Lightfoot added decent offensive value through efficient shooting numbers.
Defense
KU’s defense of +3.19 was the weaker side of the ball all season. But the team played well when it mattered most, averaging a +7.75 value score in its last 10 games.
On the season, Christian Braun was KU’s most valuable defender, giving up 9.7 points per 60 possessions and grabbing a fair share of rebounds for a wing. Fellow wings Agbaji and Wilson were also solid and versatile defensive pieces, with Och being a better on-ball defender and Wilson being an excellent defensive rebounder.
Point guard Dajuan Harris was KU’s leading steal-man, coming away with 58 live-ball steals on the year. He also forced 50 (dead-ball) turnovers, for 108 total. Given the fact he turned the ball over only 70 times himself, he was +38 for the year with regards to taking care of the ball. This is what you want to see from your main ball-handler.
Total Adjusted PPG +/-
Ochai Agbaji was KU’s best player all season, and his Adj. PPG +/- of +4.39 was the 24th best season of any Jayhawk in the last 26 seasons (1997-2022). Christian Braun at +3.91 was not far behind, producing the 29th best Adj. PPG +/- score over that time period. Of the 7-man rotation that played the bulk of the minutes during NCAA Tournament play, 6 had positive scores (Agbaji, Braun, Wilson, McCormack, Martin, Lightfoot).
Unbelievably, the TEAM score of +10.21 was KU’s 12th best season from 1997-2022. This speaks to the consistency of the program. 2022 may not have been KU’s most talented team, but they played well when it mattered most. Over the team’s final 10 games, the Jayhawks were +14.22.
This waterfall chart shows how much value in Points Above Bubble that each Jayhawk added. The bulk of KU’s success came from its wings. The Jayhawks had 7 rotation players produce positive value, a sign of depth and maturity. However, only 1 of these 7 was a point guard type.
MVP’s
In the 40 games KU played, here are the total game MVP’s for KU players ranked from most team-MVP’s to least. Agbaji 11, Braun 10, McCormack 8, Wilson 5, Martin 3, Harris 1, Coleman-Lands 1, Lightfoot 1.
After adjusting for opponent-quality, here are the percent of games with positive value score by player from best to worst (above 50% performers): Braun 83%, Agbaji 74%, Wilson 68%, Clemence 63%, Martin 57%, McCormack 55%, Adams 51%, Coleman-Lands 51%.
Points Above Bubble vs. Points Above Average
Ideally, each KU rotation player would be at a “bubble level” of value, but this isn’t the case most years. To add context to each player’s season, we can lower the skill level of the comparative player to that of the average D-1 player. When we do this, notice how each player’s Pts AA is higher than Pts AB, and how all rotation players except Joseph Yesufu and Bobby Pettiford have performed above that of a D-1 average player.
This incorporates total minutes, so Dajuan Harris’s ability to play as much as he has helps his Pts AA far more than someone like Joe Yesufu or Jalen Coleman-Lands. Focusing more on Harris, what we can say is that although he isn’t good enough to carry a team to the heights KU has reached, he has been a steady role-player that hasn’t hurt the team’s chances either. The 2022 team was carried by Agbaji, Braun, Wilson, with McCormack and Martin stepping up in the Big Dance as well. But durable guys like Harris and Lightfoot were good enough to keep KU at the high level they’ve had this season. If KU had to replace its role players (specifically Harris, Coleman-Lands, and Lightfoot) with average D-1 players, the team would have been worse off on the year.
National Champions
During the team’s six-game NCAA Tournament run, here are the Adj. PPG +/- scores:
Dajuan Harris -1.02
Remy Martin +4.11
Ochai Agbaji +3.11
Christian Braun +3.42
David McCormack +2.53
Jalen Wilson +1.46
Joseph Yesufu -0.84
Mitch Lightfoot +1.76
Jalen Coleman-Lands +0.02
K.J. Adams -0.06
Remy Martin was the most valuable Jayhawk during March Madness, after an up-and-down year plagued by missed games and injuries. David McCormack stepped up late, becoming KU’s best player in the final three games of the season. He may not have won Final 4 MOP officially, but he was the biggest reason KU cut down the nets in New Orleans. His biggest plays came during the final moments of the National Championship game. After missing a turnaround shot, he collected his own rebound and finished it to turn a 1-point deficit into a 1-point lead with 1:21 left. He then played solid defense against Carolina’s Armando Bacot (who went down with an injury), forcing a turnover. On the other end, with the shot clock winding down, McCormack got deep inside position and scored again to extend the lead to 3, which would be the final margin. Down 72-69 and with only seconds to spare, the Tar Heels would fire 3 contested 3’s that were all off the mark, cementing Kansas as the 2022 NCAA Champions.
D-Mac’s final bucket put KU up 3 with 22 seconds left, forcing UNC into a difficult spotThe Hawks celebrate after a final defensive standRock Chalk, Championship!National Championship net
McCormack 2021: 13.0 PPG, 2.5 O RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.6 TPG, 22.7 MPG with 50.2% FG, 79.8% FT. 54.9% TS. OBPM 4.7. 28.6 Usage. PRPG! 3.2.
Azubuike 2020: 13.7 PPG, 3.5 O RPG, 0.9 APG, 2.5 TPG, 27.7 MPG on 74.8% FG, 44.1% FT. 68.5% TS. OBPM 7.2. 23.5 Usage. PRPG! 4.2.
Charting the Hawks:
McCormack 2021: 1.26 Adj PPP w/ 12.1 PpPG. 0.70 Off_Imp score. +2.01 Off Prod +1.10 Off Eff = +3.11 Off PPG +/-
Azubuike 2020: 1.52 Adj PPP w/ 12.0 PpPG. 0.54 Off_Imp score. +1.26 Off Prod +1.88 Off Eff = +3.14 Off PPG +/-
Analysis…
Doke clearly bests McCormack in a few areas. FG% is the obvious one. Offensive rebounding is also a relatively large difference in favor of Doke. But D-Mac holds his own. He not only dishes more assists per game despite playing fewer minutes, he is also considerably better at not turning the ball over. D-Mac’s 0.7 A/TO ratio is nearly double that of Doke’s 0.4. D-Mac’s 80% FT shooting also closes the gap. It stands out when contrasted to Doke’s abysmal FT ability.
Another area McCormack adds value in is usage. The fundamental question in analyzing offensive player value is how to incorporate production and efficiency. Obviously both are important. But they work against each other. The more productive a player his, the more his efficiency will decline as he is asked to carry more of an offensive load. And the more efficient a player seeks to be, the more he sacrifices his production. Doke never shot outside of 5 feet. This made him hyper-efficient, but limited his scoring chances. D-Mac has a much more versatile offensive game, which leads to more missed shots and lower efficiency. On balance, both players offered similar value on that side of the ball.
Some Explanation on Terms…
OBPM gauges efficiency more than production, whereas PRPG! (Torvik) and PPG +/- incorporate both. PRPG! is not purely offensive, it also takes into account defensive stats such as defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks. It is limited when compared to PPG +/-, but good for the statistical info it receives. PpPG stands for Points produced per game; it incorporates assists generated and assists received. Doke relied on risky entry passes more than D-Mac has, but as both players receive more assists than they generate their PpPG will be lower than their raw PPG numbers. The Offensive Impact score is a pure usage number that takes into account all possession deciders—made shots, missed shots, assists, rebounds, turnovers—to gauge how active a role a player has on offense.
Further analysis…
For those who remember Doke as more dominant than these figures seem to indicate, no need to worry. Your memory is likely correct. What is provided above is season-long stats, but Doke’s 2020 season was special due to the stretch run during the back-half of conference play. Doke’s total PPG +/- was +4.41 in the 2020 season, which is of course a very good score. But his final 10 games, all against Big 12 competition, was at +6.24. He was playing his best when it mattered most, and in most years he would have 5 to 9 games more to prove his dominance.
But McCormack in 2021 is also playing great during this late-season stretch; his PPG +/- is +5.57 over his last 10. The offense is run mostly through him in the post, he doesn’t have a Devon Dotson at PG to make plays, and his passing and ball-handling have improved alongside his ability to finish inside. It will never be at Azubuike’s level, but on the flip side he can do things Doke couldn’t.
Getting back to Doke before we close, part of the reason his numbers were down during the beginning of the season was due to, of all things, David McCormack. The 2-big system the 2020 team trotted out to start games didn’t work too well against quality competition (it worked great against sub-150 teams). Doke’s offensive numbers were hurt by playing in inefficient lineups some of the time. The last time Doke and D-Mac both started together was the home K-State game on January 21. After this game, they would rarely (if ever?) share the court together, which coincided with Doke’s dominant run. However, it should be said that even during the part of the season when both started, Self would play 4 guards more often than the 2 big lineups. 2021 McCormack has played his minutes exclusively in line-ups complementary to his style, whereas 2020 Doke did so about 80% of the time. So lineup style is a factor in explaining the surprising stat showing both being equal offensive players, but only to a mild degree. The take-away should be that McCormack is actually a very good offensive talent his junior season.
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Charting the Hawks 