Kansas 95 St. John’s 75

KU defeated St. John’s by 20 in New York in the Big 12 / Big East Challenge game, improving to 6-1 in the non-conference. Below are the value scores for each player.

Christian Braun recorded the best game of any Jayhawk this season at +13.39. David McCormack had his second consecutive good outing, and both Ochai Agbaji and Remy Martin performed at a level we’ve been accustomed to seeing. K.J. Adams actually won 6 possessions from rebounds (5 offensive) in only 6 minutes, two more than what the official box score gave him. Despite only scoring 8 points so far in 7 games, K.J. is actually adding offensive value this season because of his rebounds.

2022 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2022 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 34-6 (14-4), having won the Big 12 Regular Season and Tournament Championships. The team earned earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and won the National Championship. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.

Offense

At +7.01, the 2022 team was KU’s third-best offense in the Self era, slightly behind 2017 and 2018. The team had an excellent mix of offensive talent, led by Ochai Agbaji. Agbaji finished with 17.0 points produced per game, which translated to +2.72 offensive points above a bubble-level player. David McCormack was KU’s second most valuable offensive player on a per game basis, producing 9.8 points per game but also adding value through offensive rebounding. His Offensive Efficiency of 1.35 was easily the highest of any starter.

Christian Braun was a steady player on offense, scoring in double figures in all but 5 games. He was good at the rim, shot well from outside, assisted nicely, and had his fair share of stick-backs and other hustle plays to bring value. Remy Martin got hot late in the season, carrying the Jayhawks when the team needed him. Had he been healthy the entire season, his numbers would have looked very good. Even where they are, he provided +1.33 points more per game than a replacement option would have been expected to add.

Jalen Wilson finished a fraction below +1.00, held back by poor perimeter shooting but buffered by rebounding and strong finishes at the rim. Given how many big moments he had, its crazy to think of him as only the fifth-best offensive player during the 2022 season.

Off the bench, both Jalen Coleman-Lands and Mitch Lightfoot added decent offensive value through efficient shooting numbers.

Defense

KU’s defense of +3.19 was the weaker side of the ball all season. But the team played well when it mattered most, averaging a +7.75 value score in its last 10 games.

On the season, Christian Braun was KU’s most valuable defender, giving up 9.7 points per 60 possessions and grabbing a fair share of rebounds for a wing. Fellow wings Agbaji and Wilson were also solid and versatile defensive pieces, with Och being a better on-ball defender and Wilson being an excellent defensive rebounder.

Point guard Dajuan Harris was KU’s leading steal-man, coming away with 58 live-ball steals on the year. He also forced 50 (dead-ball) turnovers, for 108 total. Given the fact he turned the ball over only 70 times himself, he was +38 for the year with regards to taking care of the ball. This is what you want to see from your main ball-handler.

Total Adjusted PPG +/-

Ochai Agbaji was KU’s best player all season, and his Adj. PPG +/- of +4.39 was the 24th best season of any Jayhawk in the last 26 seasons (1997-2022). Christian Braun at +3.91 was not far behind, producing the 29th best Adj. PPG +/- score over that time period. Of the 7-man rotation that played the bulk of the minutes during NCAA Tournament play, 6 had positive scores (Agbaji, Braun, Wilson, McCormack, Martin, Lightfoot).

Unbelievably, the TEAM score of +10.21 was KU’s 12th best season from 1997-2022. This speaks to the consistency of the program. 2022 may not have been KU’s most talented team, but they played well when it mattered most. Over the team’s final 10 games, the Jayhawks were +14.22.

This waterfall chart shows how much value in Points Above Bubble that each Jayhawk added. The bulk of KU’s success came from its wings. The Jayhawks had 7 rotation players produce positive value, a sign of depth and maturity. However, only 1 of these 7 was a point guard type.

MVP’s

In the 40 games KU played, here are the total game MVP’s for KU players ranked from most team-MVP’s to least. Agbaji 11, Braun 10, McCormack 8, Wilson 5, Martin 3, Harris 1, Coleman-Lands 1, Lightfoot 1.

After adjusting for opponent-quality, here are the percent of games with positive value score by player from best to worst (above 50% performers): Braun 83%, Agbaji 74%, Wilson 68%, Clemence 63%, Martin 57%, McCormack 55%, Adams 51%, Coleman-Lands 51%.

Points Above Bubble vs. Points Above Average

Ideally, each KU rotation player would be at a “bubble level” of value, but this isn’t the case most years. To add context to each player’s season, we can lower the skill level of the comparative player to that of the average D-1 player. When we do this, notice how each player’s Pts AA is higher than Pts AB, and how all rotation players except Joseph Yesufu and Bobby Pettiford have performed above that of a D-1 average player.

This incorporates total minutes, so Dajuan Harris’s ability to play as much as he has helps his Pts AA far more than someone like Joe Yesufu or Jalen Coleman-Lands. Focusing more on Harris, what we can say is that although he isn’t good enough to carry a team to the heights KU has reached, he has been a steady role-player that hasn’t hurt the team’s chances either. The 2022 team was carried by Agbaji, Braun, Wilson, with McCormack and Martin stepping up in the Big Dance as well. But durable guys like Harris and Lightfoot were good enough to keep KU at the high level they’ve had this season. If KU had to replace its role players (specifically Harris, Coleman-Lands, and Lightfoot) with average D-1 players, the team would have been worse off on the year.

National Champions

During the team’s six-game NCAA Tournament run, here are the Adj. PPG +/- scores:

Dajuan Harris -1.02
Remy Martin +4.11
Ochai Agbaji +3.11
Christian Braun +3.42
David McCormack +2.53
Jalen Wilson +1.46
Joseph Yesufu -0.84
Mitch Lightfoot +1.76
Jalen Coleman-Lands +0.02
K.J. Adams -0.06

Remy Martin was the most valuable Jayhawk during March Madness, after an up-and-down year plagued by missed games and injuries. David McCormack stepped up late, becoming KU’s best player in the final three games of the season. He may not have won Final 4 MOP officially, but he was the biggest reason KU cut down the nets in New Orleans. His biggest plays came during the final moments of the National Championship game. After missing a turnaround shot, he collected his own rebound and finished it to turn a 1-point deficit into a 1-point lead with 1:21 left. He then played solid defense against Carolina’s Armando Bacot (who went down with an injury), forcing a turnover. On the other end, with the shot clock winding down, McCormack got deep inside position and scored again to extend the lead to 3, which would be the final margin. Down 72-69 and with only seconds to spare, the Tar Heels would fire 3 contested 3’s that were all off the mark, cementing Kansas as the 2022 NCAA Champions.

D-Mac’s final bucket put KU up 3 with 22 seconds left, forcing UNC into a difficult spot

The Hawks celebrate after a final defensive stand

Links

2022 Season Preview (10/19/21)

Pre-conference Basketball (11/3/21)

2022 Through 3 Games (11/19/21)

ESPN Events Orlando Recap (11/29/21)

Best Duos in KU history (12/17/21)

Harris vs. Martin (1/26/22)

How Many Points is Ochai Worth? (2/1/22)

Breaking Down Offense Further (3/4/22)

Kansas 83, Texas Southern 56 Recap (3/17/22)

Kansas 79, Creighton 72 Recap (3/19/22)

Kansas 66, Providence 61 Recap (3/25/22)

Kansas 76, Miami 50 Recap (3/27/22)

Kansas 81, Villanova 65 Recap (4/2/22)

Kansas 72, North Carolina 69 Recap (4/4/22)

2011 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2011 Kansas Jayhawks finished 35-3 (14-2), winning the Big 12 Regular Season and Conference Tournament. The team earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and made the Elite 8 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.

OFFENSE

The 2011 offense was based heavily on the interior, with PF Marcus Morris producing the most value of anyone at +4.02. Markieff Morris and reserve Thomas Robinson were also efficient and productive, adding +2.78 and +1.29 points of value per game. The point production was fairly balanced among the main guards, although aside from Josh Selby it was clear that the role of the guards was to be facilitators first. The team’s true shooting was fairly balanced, again aside from Selby who took too many shots. This suggests the other players took shots at a sensible frequency that would best help the team win.

DEFENSE

The 2011 defense was an underrated group. Without a primary shot-blocker in the starting rotation; it relied on lateral quickness, communication, and rebounding. Junior PF Markieff Morris graded out as the best individual defender, winning 10.6 possessions per 60. His brother was also solid inside. On the perimeter Tyrel Reed, Josh Selby, and Travis Releford produced solid seasons. Brady Morningstar finished with positive value on this side (albeit not by much), and Tyshawn Taylor finished with the worst per game value score of any defender since 1997.

Total Adjusted PPG +/-

Marcus Morris and Markieff Morris performed a feat that has only been done one other time since 1997 (through the 2021 season), namely be a part of a duo that each produced over 5 points of per game value. Raef LaFrentz and Paul Pierce in 1998 also accomplished this. Beyond the Morris twins, KU had valuable bench forwards in Thomas Robinson and Mario Little. Tyrel Reed made a small contribution (+0.52) as a senior, as did Josh Selby in his only season (+0.20). The other rotation guards faired poorly. Travis Releford, who had a per game value score equal to Reed, could have made the argument that he warranted more time on the wing.

There was a lot of questions coming into the 2011 season for Kansas, but it soon became clear that Marcus and Markieff had improved enough to get Kansas to the heights it wanted to get. In their junior season, the Morris twins parlayed their starring roles at Kansas into mid-first round picks in the following summer’s NBA Draft. Each developed from inconsistent freshmen into lottery picks with similar but slightly different games that were good enough to stick around in the professional ranks. Like most players, their careers ended on a sour note. But without them, this team is nowhere near a 1 seed or Elite 8 caliber squad.

Kansas walk-on children's book 'Fieldhouse' - Sports Illustrated

2022 Season Preview

Coach Bill Self did a lot in the offseason, adding four veteran transfers to a recruiting class of four 4-star recruits to a roster returning four starters. That’s a lot of fours.

The biggest loss from last season is Marcus Garrett. Playing out of position as the starting point guard, Garrett still managed to put up a decent offensive season. His greatest value was through his defense, topping all other seasons of KU players since 1997 including his now-second-place 2020 campaign. He will be missed.

Let’s first look at returning KU rotation players, using value data from prior seasons, and attempt to project PPG +/- value scores.

Ochai Agbaji (Sr.):

2019: Off -1.01 Def +1.57 Tot +0.56

2020: Off -1.14 Def +0.19 Tot -0.95

2021: Off +0.42 Def +0.88 Tot +1.30

Agbaji’s sophomore slump was all-but-forgotten when he got off to a hot start in the 2021 season. He did revert back down as the season went on, but he did finish as KU’s leading scorer and a key piece of a team that earned a 3-seed in March. He is an extremely good athlete and solid shooter who is now a senior. If he can improve on some weaknesses (ball handling, decision making) and put it all together this season, it could have tremendous benefit to both the team and his draft stock. Still, even a middle-of-the-road estimate puts him as a critical part of the 2022 team.
2022 Prediction: Off +0.65 Def +1.20 Tot +1.85

Christian Braun (Jr.):

2020: Off -0.33 Def +0.49 Tot +0.16

2021: Off -0.40 Def +0.48 Tot +0.08

Braun’s value scores were very similar from 2020 to 2021. The major difference was his playing time, he jumped from 45.8% of minutes played as a freshman to 77.7% as a sophomore. Braun will play significant minutes as a junior, and should improve on both sides of the ball. Playing with ball-handling-heavy guards should free him up to knock down jumpers and get set up on backdoors and transition opportunities. The bulk of his value above bubble-player will come from his defense and rebounding. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.05 Def +0.75 Tot +0.70

Dejuan Harris (RS So.):

2021: Off -1.09 Def -0.35 Tot -1.44

Harris struggled to produce points despite shooting efficiently and distributing the ball nicely. He wasn’t a threat to score, and his lack of size was exposed whenever he was tasked with guarding larger or more physical players. Still, with an offseason of adding strength, he has the skill to be a valuable player. The biggest question is how Self will structure his rotation. With two new transfer PGs coming in, Harris might not get too many minutes. But Self could decide to play small and go with four guards most of the time. Harris shouldn’t be asked to do more than he is capable of with the roster as deep as it is. He will certainly improve on his freshman value scores. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.75 Def -0.20 Tot -0.95

Mitch Lightfoot (RS Sr.):

2017: Off -0.46 Def -0.19 Tot -0.65

2018: Off -0.69 Def -0.59 Tot -1.29

2019: Off -0.61 Def -0.10 Tot -0.71

2021: Off -0.36 Def -0.48 Tot -0.84

Lightfoot took a step back in 2021 after redshirting. He has clearly reached his peak as a college basketball player. His sixth year in the program should only get him fill-in minutes with the depth of the roster, but his defense might still be needed at times based on matchup. Ideally, he should play around 10% of season minutes, which will keep his value score from getting too low on a per game basis. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.25 Tot -0.50

David McCormack (Sr.):

2019: Off +0.39 Def -0.68 Tot -0.29

2020: Off +1.15 Def -0.67 Tot +0.48

2021: Off +3.44 Def -0.56 Tot +2.88

McCormack’s offense is highly underrated. He is a good scorer who gets his hands on a number of offensive rebounds, and at 80% is a solid free throw shooter. With Remy Martin and Yesufu getting him looks, he should easily score as well as he did during last season’s Big 12 play. On the other side of the ball, his defense will still be a weakness. His uncomfortably low defensive score in 2021 was partially due to how his season ended with very poor showings in the NCAA Tournament. He should improve on that side of the ball, but he won’t turn into Sasha Kaun. 2022 Prediction: Off +3.20 Def -0.10 Tot +3.10

Jalen Wilson (RS So.):

2020: Off -0.64 Def +0.20 Tot -0.44

2021: Off +0.95 Def -0.31 Tot +0.64

Jalen Wilson was KU’s biggest positive surprise for the 2020 season. He started in all but a few games, and was a serious scorer particularly early on. He can drive, pull-up, or hit the deep shot. He also rebounded well on both ends. On the other end, his on-ball defense was not very good. He struggles to find someone to guard…traditional bigs can take him into the post and quicker guards can easily beat him on the drive. 2022 Prediction: Off +1.15 Def -0.10 Tot +1.05

We have the most data on these six players, so their estimates should be more accurate than other players. These six form a solid core that could get KU into the tournament easily enough. It is the next set, the transfers, that can get this team from a middling seed and into the upper echelon of the sport and a deep tournament run.

Jalen Coleman-Lands (RS Sr):

2021: Off +0.60 Def -1.25 Tot -0.75

Jalen Coleman-Lands began his college career in the same season that Perry Ellis graduated (he was in the same recruiting class as Ben Simmons). After two years at Illinois, a transfer year, a medical redshirt year, a season at DePaul, then a season at Iowa St., he is taking advantage of the new transfer rules to finish his career as a Jayhawk.

As a shooter, he’s a career 39%/37%/81% marksman (FG%, 3pt%, FT%). He should excel playing on a spaced-out floor with other shooters and ball-handlers. He did average 14.3 ppg on a dreadful Iowa St. team last season, but his career assist-per-game mark is only at 1.1. He doesn’t create a lot of offense on his own and relies on spacing/ball-movement.

Defensively he is a question mark. He played on poor defensive team last season, so how much will playing with better athletes help him on that end this season? Isaiah Moss is a comparison here, but Moss was a very good on-ball defender playing for KU. But if Lands’ defense is more like that of Lagerald Vick, he won’t add much value to the roster. The prediction below believes he can step up his game well enough to be a value-neutral player, given his solid shooting and veteran presence. Any defensive competency he shows on the wing will be an added bonus to the team. 2022 Prediction: Off +0.50 Def -0.50 Tot +0.00

Cam Martin (Sr.)

The Missouri Southern (D-2) transfer can fill it up, as he averaged 25.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg with excellent shooting percentage numbers (44% from 3). But scoring against Division 1 athletes will be tougher, as will be playing solid enough defense to earn floor time. But he will get his chances during the season, and should be playing with good enough facilitators which allow him to score. 2022 Prediction: Off +0.45 Def -0.15 Tot +0.30

Remy Martin (Sr.)

2021: Off +3.52 Def +0.17 Tot +3.69

2-0 against Kansas during his career as an Arizona St. Sun Devil, Martin brings ball-handling, passing, shooting, and scoring to the PG position. He should start and has a great chance to be KU’s leading scorer and best player. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 19.1 ppg and 3.9 apg playing for a mediocre team. Surrounded with scorers like Wilson and McCormack and shooters like Agbaji and Braun, he might not score as much as he had to at ASU but he should up his assists and increase his efficiency. Defensively, he is quick and gets a fair share of steals. He has the physical tools to be a good defender on the perimeter against fellow guards. He is smaller, so any switches would give him trouble inside. Should he stay healthy, he could add his name to the list of excellent KU point guards that have come through in recent seasons. 2022 Prediction: Off +3.00 Def +0.50 Tot +3.50

Joseph Yesufu (Jr.)

2021: Off +0.91 Def +0.10 Tot +1.01

Yesufu blew-up for Drake at the end of last season, working his way not only into the starting rotation but also as the guy for the Bulldogs. He averaged 23.2 ppg in his last 9 games on 47% shooting from 3. But for most of the season, and for his freshman season the year prior, he was a reserve-guard for a mid-major program. Can he continue to play at his highest level? How does he defend? These are tough questions to answer and to predict. Still, due to his age (junior) and his scoring ability, he will find time on the court. 2022 Prediction: Off +1.25 Def -0.15 Tot +1.10

These four guys didn’t transfer to sit; they came to help KU achieve its program goals. Remy Martin will almost certainly start, while Yesufu and even Coleman-Lands have a decent chance of starting. These four will need to perform to their capacity in order to push KU to the heights of a 1 or 2 seed. The next set of players, all true freshmen, have an exciting mix of potential and raw talent. We don’t know exactly what KU is getting with these guys, but each has the opportunity to be solid multi-year guys for the program. Any value added by any of these players will add a bonus element to an already-stacked roster. Due to the team’s depth, there is a good chance at least one of these guys redshirts. The early money is on Kyle Cuffe to sit. We’ll assume this is the case for now, and leave his prediction score off.

KJ Adams (Fr.)

The freshman 4-star is ranked lower in the Top 100 (#71 composite) but is still a serious prospect. At 6’6 with quickness, he could find high-leverage minutes as a stretch four when KU is wanting to play aggressive on defense. His role should be playing high-energy, getting rebounds, loose balls, pressing his man on defense, etc. His estimate assumes he plays in some games early, but ultimately gets only a few minutes in some Big 12 games as the season wears on. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.40 Tot -0.65

Zach Clemence (Fr.)

The freshman 4-star is ranked somewhere in the middle part of the Top 100 (#39 composite), a spot which usually assumes some development is still to come. As an upper classman, Clemence should be a key piece. But let’s not expect much from him as a freshman. Since 2016, the average score for a freshman rotation player is +0.04. He is far closer to the lower-end (Harris, Thompson) of that spectrum than the upper end (Jackson, Dotson) which is why his score is negative. If he were to contribute, it’d be to his shooting, ball skills, and size as a solid and versatile 4-man. He should get a trial run in the games before Christmas, but expect his minutes to be shrunk by conference play. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.20 Def -0.35 Tot -0.55

Bobby Pettiford (Fr.)

The freshman 4-star combo guard is ranked lower than the other KU frosh recruits (#88 composite), but early reports have been positive. He is playing behind three ball-handling guards (Martin, Yesufu, Harris) and three good-shooting wings (Agbaji, Braun, Coleman-Lands), so there aren’t many minutes left unless he overperforms his ranking. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.35 Tot -0.60

The last group of players would be walk-ons. KU has four walk-ons this season, but only two will be given any detail. Dillon Wilhite and Charlie McCarthy are potential redshirts.

Chris Teahan (Sr.):

2018: Off -0.10 Def -0.10 Tot -0.20

2019: Off -0.17 Def -0.00 Tot -0.17

2020: Off -0.17 Def -0.90 Tot -1.07

2021: Off +0.39 Def +0.40 Tot +0.79

Walk-ons’ value scores shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as their limited playing time and quality of opponent during mop-up time can skew their numbers dramatically. Still, Teahan showed strong shooting and rebounding ability to generate a strong, positive, value-score in 2021. With KU’s 2022 depth being what it is I doubt he gets serious minutes in the upcoming season. But he might actually be better than his brother, who did play serious minutes for the 2012 national runners-up. 2022 Prediction: Off +0.00 Def -0.20 Tot -0.20

Michael Jankovich (Jr.):

2020: Off +0.05 Def -0.91 Tot -0.86

2021: Off -0.79 Def -1.09 Tot -1.88

Jankovich was injured most of last season and only played in one game (the USC game). Like Teahan, he is a seriously good shooter who can make shots coming in cold. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.50 Tot -0.75

2022 KU Jayhawks basketball team predictions

As a team, predicting playing patterns that Self tends to favor (8-9 player rotation by conference play), the math works out to a +9.50 Team Score this season. This would put the overall performance about on par with the 2012 team, and around average for a Bill Self Kansas team. However, this year’s roster will get it done primarily through offense (+8.93), while its defense struggles (+0.58) to attain what past KU teams have. Translating these numbers to efficiency ratings, the estimate is that KU should be ranked about 2^nd on offense and 40^th on defense this season in all of D-1.

There are three big questions heading into the season.

1…Can Self get this team to defend?

It’s surprising to see a projected defensive score so low. As a comparison, in the Bill Self era the worst defensive team (2018) is still better than the projection of the 2022 team. The 2018 team was still able to make the Final Four, but did so due to great offense. But why is the 2022 team’s projected defense so bad?

The PPG +/- system relies on the assumption that the team is as good as its parts. Or another way to put it, the skill level of the team (reflected in points against opponent weighted by strength) is attributed to each player so that the sum of all player scores just equals the team score. A team with good defenders will have a higher (better) defensive score than a team with poor defenders.

Last season’s defense wasn’t great, but the largest reason it was competent at all was the play of Marcus Garrett. Losing him on the perimeter means teams should have an easier time running their offense this season. Can KU pick up the pieces and defend scorers? Can Agbaji become the team’s best on-ball defender? Can Braun step up his defense? What will the incoming guards/wings do on this end?

One dark horse on this end is the depth that KU can throw out there. Would Self be open to pressing more given how much athleticism is on the roster? Upping the tempo might be in the team’s best interest. It would also be a lot of fun. Perhaps the best defense KU can put out there is to counterintuitively increase scoring. But on a per possession basis, running might make its defense more efficient if it wears its opponents down.

2…What will the rotation look like?

KU has 18 players on the 2022 roster, with 14 of those players being on scholarship. Redshirting at least one player seems likely. Let’s assume the freshmen won’t provide much value. That still leaves 10 non-freshmen, all of whom used to playing rotation-minutes, having to work together.

KU’s depth is particularly strong at the guard/wing position. Remy Martin, Joseph Yesufu, Jalen Coleman Lands, Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun were all starters last year for whatever team they were on. Dejuan Harris was a 6^th man averaging 29 minutes per game during the final four games of KU’s season. Six guys for three spots makes it crowded.

Looking at the forward position, you have two serious returning starters in David McCormack and Jalen Wilson. Mitch Lightfoot’s minutes can likely be cut back, but Cam Martin will likely play when D-Mac is on the bench. KU could go small, and move Braun/Agbaji into the 4-man role when Wilson is sitting. This would open up a fourth spot to rotate the 6 guards/wings.

Of course, the freshman will still get a look. Clemence and Adams each bring a unique skill set that isn’t realized by a veteran player. Either would be a natural four in the current era of college basketball. It will be interesting to see Self mix and match rotations during the easy part of the November/December schedule. If the freshmen can defend, this would be a good way to get on the floor given how offensively-capable the team already is.

3…How explosive can the offense be?

This is the big unknown, because on paper this team will have the best offense in the Self era. McCormack, Wilson, Remy Martin, Yesufu, Coleman-Lands, and Cam Martin are scorers. If they are to produce the value they are capable of, it will have to be due to offense. Are there too many spoons in the pot? Note that this leaves of Agbaji, KU’s leading scorer from last season!

But this may be yet another argument for pushing the pace. The team has guard depth and quickness that can be utilized in transition. Upping the tempo allows more guys to get more shots and more offensive flow. Guys like Remy Martin can improve their efficiency by facilitating more than they’ve been able to in years past. Neither Agbaji nor Braun should need to force shots this season, and can focus on playing excellent defense and finishing plays when they get open opportunities. They team has complementary parts if they play together and stay within their roles.

Best Case/Worst Case/Middle Case

The realistic best-case scenario for the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks is to cut down the nets in April. They have depth, skill, experience, variety, and good coaching. Team’s will struggle to slow down an offense that can beat you from all five spots. Who can you pressure? Who can you leave to double-team? KU should have an answer to any challenge a defense might throw at them.

In this scenario, the defense doesn’t become all-time but gels together and wins possessions by playing solidly and limiting second-chance opportunities. In order to make up for losing Marcus Garrett, you’ll need Agbaji and Braun to continue to improve. McCormack and Wilson will need to perform better. The newcomers will need to show they can play defense at a program like Kansas. If everyone steps up his game just marginally, the cumulative effect can be a defense that is not a glaring weakness but in fact complements the outstanding offense.

On the flip side, the realistic worst-case scenario would be a middling regular season, capped by a higher single-digit seed and first round exit. Barring NCAA penalties or multiple critical injuries, this scenario would play out because the team had trouble making all the new pieces fit together. Poor decision making, too much isolation play, and lazy defense combined would hurt the team’s performance. Even with the team’s depth, a single injury to either McCormack or Remy would change the complexion of the team significantly. While not likely, the team could revert into what it was for much of last season, except without Marcus Garrett.

The realistic middle-case scenario is a 26 to 29-win pre-NCAA tournament season, Big 12 title, and on the line between a 1 or 2 seed and over/under 3.0 tournament wins. An Elite 8 run would be neither disappointing nor above-expectation, but rather a push when it came to season expectations. Like any team in any year, a Final Four should still be seen as a good season even if the team wasn’t able to close out the deal and win two more in April. The team should put up some points this year, which will be fun.

2012 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2012 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 32-7 (16-2), winning the Big 12 Regular Season. The team earned a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament and finished National Runners-Up. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.

Offense

The 2012 Offense was led by Thomas Robinson (31.1% of shots while in game) and Tyshawn Taylor (26.4% shot frequency). With each player having such high volume, neither finished with high efficiency marks. But it was their overall productions, with Taylor producing 18.6 points a game and Robinson at 16.7, that drove their value scores.

The only other positive-value Jayhawk on offense was Jeff Withey, who was efficient thanks to a 57.5% true shooting and solid offensive rebounding marks.

Defense

The 2012 Defense was what carried the team, as it was the #3 ranked adjusted defense on KenPom that year. Jeff Withey was the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year thanks to his shot blocking prowess (led the nation in block rate), but it was Thomas Robinson who actually produced the highest value score thanks to his excellent defensive rebounding ability (in fact he led the nation in defensive rebounding rate). Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford also produced over a point of value per game on defense. Conner Teahan was the other Jayhawk rotation player to provide positive defensive value, as he only allowed 9.1 points per 60 possessions. His positioning and ability to move laterally were underrated.

Adj. PPG +/-

Thomas Robinson showed why he was the Big 12 Player of the Year and Consensus first-team All-American, producing over 6 points of value per game above that of a bubble-player at his position. Tyshawn Taylor edged out Jeff Withey for second place on the list, as each hovered around 3 points of value per game. Both Johnson and Releford rounded out the starting lineup with positive-value seasons thanks to solid defense.

The bench was another story. Both Kevin Young and Conner Teahan were able to keep their value scores respectable given that each was playing more minutes than expected (Young transferred from a mid-major; Teahan was a former walk-on), and they were certainly better than both Naadir Tharpe and Justin Wesley. Both Tharpe and Wesley had sub -1.00 scores despite playing relatively few minutes, if we looked at these value scores on a per possession basis they would look even lower for these two.

Per-100 Numbers:

Taylor +5.37
Johnson +2.22
Releford +0.91
Robinson +11.04
Withey +7.20
Young -2.61
Teahan -2.09
Tharpe -11.85
Wesley -9.04
Lindsay -4.13
Juenemann -3.46
Roberts -21.27
Garrett -30.46

This waterfall chart is a nice representation of KU’s strengths and weaknesses. Good point guard play, dependable wing play, excellent power forward play, alongside good center play from its starters. When the team went to its bench, it started losing value rapidly.

Jayhawk of the Year

KU’s run to the national championship game was quite unexpected at the beginning of the year, and wouldn’t have been possible if not for the dominant play of junior forward Thomas Robinson. A bench guy his first two seasons, Robinson excelled as a starter and go-to offensive weapon. He played with a lot of heart as well, bringing energy and helping to elevate the play of his teammates.

The 2012 season was a memorable run and has a special place in the hearts of many KU fans. Self’s ability to get the most out of his starters (all returnees who had their best seasons to that point in 2012) earned him many coaching accolades.

2013 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2013 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 31-6 (14-4), winning the Big 12 Regular Season and Conference Tournament. The team earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Sweet 16 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.

Offense

Losing leading scorers Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor from the prior year, the 2013 offense struggled compared to other Jayhawk teams. Redshirt freshman Ben McLemore was KU’s most talented scorer, contributing 14.7 points of offense per game while shooting a nice percentage on good volume. He was the only Jayhawk who provided over 2 points of value on offense for the season.

Seniors Travis Releford and Jeff Withey had solid offensive seasons, with Releford contributing an excellent 1.39 Offensive Efficiency at the wing position. Both Perry Ellis and Kevin Young were complimentary offensive players as well. Senior PG Elijah Johnson’s poor offensive season was due primarily to poor shooting.

Defense

The 2013 team was very defensive-oriented. In fact, of its top-9 players, only Naadir Tharpe failed to provide above-bubble value. The defense was anchored inside by Jeff Withey who finished with a defensive score above +2.00 for the second straight season. Ben McLemore’s defense was underrated, as he graded out as a near-peer defender to senior Travis Releford. The 2013 team was Bill Self’s 8th consecutive team to reach a defensive Adj. +/- score of +5.00 or better, a mark that only 2 KU defenses have reached since (2016, 2020). The 2013 team was a classic, early Bill Self team that hung its hat on defense.

Adj. PPG +/-

Ben McLemore was KU’s most valuable player in 2013, followed by Jeff Withey and Travis Releford. The team had nice balance with Young and Ellis also providing over +1.00 of value per game. The PG position was the team’s weakness, with Elijah Johnson battling injury all year and Naadir Tharpe struggling in moments. The TEAM score of +8.51 is actually a full point below KU’s average score since 1997. What’s amazing is that this team was still good enough to earn a 1 seed. The veteran play from its four seniors won it many close games.

Season Memories:

The 2013 team had multiple nice wins. Going into Columbus and beating a good Ohio State team for the third-straight time over the past two seasons. Smoking K-State by 21 after going through a rough three-game losing streak. But most memorable for this team are its two regular season wins against Iowa State. The first was in Allen Fieldhouse, when Ben McLemore banked in a 3 with 2 seconds left to send the game to overtime. He would torch the nets in the extra session as well, finishing with 33 points on 6-6 3’s for the game to lead the Jayhawks to victory.

The other Iowa State game will always be remembered as the “Elijah game.” With the Jayhawks needing a miracle to win in Ames, Johnson hit big shot after big shot to get the game to overtime, where he would then win it single-handedly. Johnson finished with 39 points and had a season-high game score of +19.78.

These moments proved to be huge for a Kansas program looking to extend its Big 12 Conference Title streak. KU would go on to share the regular season crown with K-State as each team had 14-4 records, though KU won both regular season meetings. In the conference tournament, KU would establish itself as the best team in the league by beating K-State for a third time in three tries, taking home the tournament trophy.

Stud frosh Ben McLemore shot 42% from 3 on the season

Jeff Withey spurred a huge second-half comeback in the Sprint Center to advance KU to the Sweet 16

Information Availability Analysis for 2013 season

Charting the Hawks looks to estimate player value for Kansas Jayhawks teams and players by using as much information as is publicly available. In order to get the most accurate player value data, game video must be available. For seasons past, this isn’t always possible for each game KU has played. When a certain game isn’t available to watch, supplemental information is used (play-by-play data, video replay highlights, scouting videos, radio coverage, box score info, postgame write-ups, game-feed discussions, etc.). This supplemental information allows for a better estimates, which can be amended whenever better information comes available. However, this necessarily means that each season has different amounts of info which can be used. More recent seasons have every play (or 99.9% of plays) on video. These estimates are the best. The further we go back, generally there are fewer games available for rewatch and less supplemental info.

To account for this discrepancy, CtH has a system which can analyze how complete the info is for a given season. This scale is set to 100%, with 100% meaning that each available possession during the season was watched on video. If no games were on video and the only information that was available were box scores, we would have an estimate of around 67%. This means that box score data can get us player value estimates that are about 2/3 as good as having each game. Thus the range of options for a given game, going back from the mid-90’s to today, tends to be around 67% to 100%, again with that number more likely to be closer to the high end the nearer to the present we are.

For the 2013 Kansas Jayhawks season, the info availability scores are:

The Estimate number best estimates the average accuracy of each possession over the course of the season. For plays that weren’t able to be recorded (such as defensive points allowed), an educated guess is used, divided among the players in the game. There is a scale which determines how certain we are of player-value for that possession. At 96.7%, we have good confidence that the 2013 player value scores listed above are accurate to within a small range. With more information, the player value scores would change, but probably not by much.

The % Games shows the number of full games that were available to watch for that season during the time CtH was charting these games for player value. At 77.2%, this means that 28 of the 37 KU games for the 2013 were available. Thanks to those who upload archived games, whether on YouTube or elsewhere.

The % Poss verified number looks at all possessions, and counts only the ones that were recorded either through video or through a play-by-play transcript. While play-by-plays aren’t 100% accurate, they are mostly reliable and excellent supplemental information to use. They are missing a few important player value components, most notably defensive points allowed, but for offensive stats and rebounding/steals, they help make things more accurate. At 95.0%, only 1 possession out of 20 is below a 90% confidence level of estimating player-value.

In summary, the take-away is this. For the 2013 player value numbers, resubmitted below, there is a high confidence level that these values are within +/- 0.25 points per game. The info availability for 2013 is quite good, and while the true CtH player value would be somewhat different if we had 100% info availability through all possessions being on video when charted, there wouldn’t be much change in all likelihood. Note this doesn’t say anything about the CtH system itself. So even at 100% info availability, these numbers would still best be considered quantitative estimates of player value.

The 2013 Kansas Jayhawks player value table. At Adjusted PPG +/-, Ben McLemore is considered to be +3.65 points better per game than a bubble-level replacement would be at his position and minutes. This value score is an estimate, but one that is backed up by a solid amount of information (96.7%) and a logically-based system that seeks to balance all elements of a basketball game in order to show one value-score.

2014 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2014 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 25-10 (14-4), winning the Big 12 Regular Season. The team earned a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Round of 32 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.

Offense:

Andrew Wiggins led the Jayhawks’ offense in 2014, accounting for 16.6 points per game on 54.5% true shooting. He was joined by strong interior scoring from Perry Ellis and Joel Embiid. KU was a strong interior team this year, as both Tarik Black and Jamari Traylor also had positive value seasons in the interior. KU’s five starters all produced over 10 points a game. Naadir Tharpe shot the ball well on a limited frequency. The two biggest offensive letdowns were off-ball freshmen guards in Wayne Selden and Conner Frankamp.

Defense:

The team’s defense was Coach Self’s weakest to this point while at Kansas. The best defender was Joel Embiid, an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Both Perry Ellis and Andrew Wiggins played good enough defense, but what was most disappointing was the effort from role players on the roster. KU didn’t need guys like Naadir Tharpe or Jamari Traylor to focus on scoring. They both should have done better on this end.

Adj. PPG +/-

Kansas was led by three star players; Embiid, Wiggins, and Ellis. Two of these three would be top-three picks in the 2014 NBA draft, and Ellis would go on to have an excellent college career. The guard play was noticeably mediocre. Starting PG Naadir Tharpe had some excellent shooting games in 2014, but also had down games as well. His average score was right at bubble-level. Tharpe would be benched during the tournament due to poor play, and his two replacements in Frank Mason and Conner Frankamp would go on to post slightly-above and slightly-below replacement seasons. Wayne Selden would also produce a below-value season as a freshman.

The TEAM’s offense-defense value-difference of +3.80 (meaning its offense was 3.80 points better relative to its offense) was the widest offense-dominant team that Self had to this point (2017, 2018, and 2022 would all be wider). This was likely due to a prominent number of skilled scorers and large number of underclassmen who hadn’t learned to defend yet.

Two Lottery Freshmen, Two Value Leaders

Joel Embiid was KU’s most valuable player on a per-game basis, thanks to his efficient scoring and strong interior defense. He added positive, above-bubble value in 22 of the 28 games he played in (78.6%). His best game in a Jayhawk uniform was against New Mexico in the Sprint Center.

However, Andrew Wiggins was more durable. He played in all 35 of Kansas’ games, providing the most value from a total perspective. He also had the best game of any Jayhawk in the 2014 season, posting a +18.83 value score in his 41-point performance against West Virginia in Morgantown in the final regular season game of the season. Wiggins would also lead the team with 11 game MVPs.

The 2014 team in retrospective:

The 2014 team came in with a lot of hype, and although it wasn’t to live up to it, it’s two best prospects were. The negatives are obvious. Not getting past the first weekend. Poor guard play. Double-digit losses. But on the flip side, this team extended the conference-title streak to 10. When healthy, the team was very tough to beat. It had incredible depth and a number of guys who might have been overlooked during this season would go on to have great careers at Kansas.

WAR rankings. Here are the Wins Above Replacement for the 2014 season:

Andrew Wiggins +5.08
Perry Ellis +4.54
Joel Embiid +3.92
Naadir Tharpe +1.45
Tarik Black +1.27
Wayne Selden +1.04
Frank Mason +0.91
Andrew White +0.28
Landen Lucas +0.06
Conner Frankamp 0.00
Justin Wesley -0.03
Niko Roberts -0.04
Evan Manning -0.09
Christian Garrett -0.15
Brannen Greene -0.20
Jamari Traylor -0.33

NCAA Tournament:

The 2014 team earned a 2-seed and drew 15-seed Eastern Kentucky in a closer-than-expected game. In the end, KU turned to the effort and energy of Jamari Traylor to win the game down the stretch. Traylor would go for 17 and 14, adding 6.29 points of value above bubble for the game in his only team-MVP game of the year. This game is sometimes overlooked, but it was good to win because of how bad of a loss it would have been. Unfortunately, Kansas didn’t play well in its next game as it would fall to 10-seed Stanford.

2015 Kansas Jayhawks

The 2015 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 27-9 (13-5), winning the Big 12 Regular Season. The team earned a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Round of 32 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.

Offense

The 2015 Offense struggled to score, producing only about 1.69 points per game above a bubble offense. Both Frank Mason and Perry Ellis were solid contributors, each just a shade under +2.00. Freshmen Kelly Oubre and Cliff Alexander will likewise positive on the offensive end of things. Aside from that, players were either bubble-level or worse.

Defense

The 2015 Defense was the better side for Kansas, ranking 9th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency. Wayne Selden graded out as KU’s strongest defender, allowing only 9.0 points per 60 possessions. Both Kelly Oubre and Perry Ellis were also above 1.00 PPGAB in defensive value. The defense didn’t have a weak spots opponents could exploit, although the younger guards (Mason, Graham) would improve on this end as their careers developed.

Perry Ellis was the team’s most valuable player in 2015, averaging over 3.00 PPGAB in value before his knee injury (he would struggle for the first few games when he returned, which dropped him to the final PPGAB mark he’s showing). Despite a slow start to the season, Kelly Oubre added nearly 2.00 PPGAB in value, with sophomore PG Frank Mason not far behind. Wayne Selden, Cliff Alexander, Brannen Greene, and Landen Lucas were other players with positive impact on the season.

Kelly Oubre and the 2015 Jayhawks went undefeated at Allen Fieldhouse (15-0).

KU had a nice rotation for much of 2015, but this got weaker after Cliff Alexander was held out and Perry Ellis suffered his knee injury.

Data Fulfillment

For the 2015 season, 23/36 games were able to be watched in their entirety. The other 13 games were charted using video highlights, radio broadcasts, play-by-play box score information, and other sources to most accurately record what happened. This led to a Coverage score of 96.93%, which is very good. Over 71.2% of the season’s plays were available on video, with 95.5% of all possessions having at least a 90% confidence rating.

What this indicates is that the value-stat estimates from this season are not prone to much data-absence error. These value scores aren’t likely to be too far off what they would be had we the entire season, since only a small percentage of overall possessions are in question.

2021 Recap

The final 2021 stats have been published. Below is a brief look at the value provided by this season’s roster. Note that the assessments are in relation to a KU-level talent for how they performed this season. It is not a prediction on what they will be later in their careers.

STARTERS

Marcus Garrett led the team with a +4.45 score. He provided the most-valuable defensive season on record (20 seasons) with a +4.03 Def PPG +/- score. The scores confirm what the eye-test tells us, Garrett’s defense was outstanding. Additionally, Garrett provided +0.42 value on offense. Not great, but above replacement-level. Since 2012, Garrett was KU’s fourth-best starting point guard, and not too far below Devonte’ Graham’s 2018 season.

KU has been spoiled with outstanding PG’s in recent years. Don’t blame Garrett for having to play out of position in 2021, blame those around him for not elevating their games. Assessment: KU-level star (A+).

Christian Braun finished barely in the green, with a +0.08 score. He had some excellent games but was an inconsistent shooter. He also had trouble generating his own offense, so he was the least productive starter on offense. His defense was not bad, but not great either. He is a good rebounder for a guard, and an okay on-ball defender. Looking at his total value, he likely doesn’t start most seasons at KU. But he was still the team’s fifth-best player, and will be a vital piece moving forward should he improve like most KU players do who return for a third season. Assessment: KU-level reserve (C).

Ochai Agbaji was the team’s leading scorer at 14.1 ppg, and finished with a +1.30 score. His offensive efficiency declined throughout the season, and he didn’t grab many rebounds or steals on defense either. Still, he did a good job of outscoring his man, and he graded out as the team’s second-best defender. I don’t see him being anywhere near an NBA-level talent yet. His junior season was a clear jump over his underclass years, but he still has room to grow as a player. Assessment: KU-level starter most years (B-).

Jalen Wilson finished with a score of +0.64, with his value coming on the offensive side of the ball. At times he was a very good scorer, and his rebounding skill made KU less of a “small ball” team than was predicted. His defense was poor, particularly when he was in a mismatch against a quicker player. If he can improve his shooting and on-ball defense, he can be a very good college player. Assessment: KU-level reserve (C+).

David McCormack had a dominant offensive portion of the schedule, which elevated him to a +2.87 score. He graded out as a better offensive weapon than Doke last season due to his production, free throw shooting, and ability to take care of the ball while playing against a tougher schedule. He was a versatile scorer. McCormack’s defense, while better than his underclass years, was nevertheless quite poor. He struggled against versatile players whether underneath or (especially) on the perimeter. Assessment: KU-level starter (A-).

ROTATION BENCH PLAYERS

Bryce Thompson finished his freshman season at -1.32. This is actually far more respectable than how he played at the beginning of the season. Thompson’s offense was the worst on the team, and he never outscored the 12 points he put up against Gonzaga in the first game of the season. His defense was slightly positive, and he showed flashes of the talent that brought him to Kansas. I don’t doubt he can improve. Assessment: Not KU-level (D-).

Tyon Grant-Foster was the only rotation bench guy to have a positive score, at +0.23. He was not an efficient offensive player, which hurt his minutes. But he defended, rebounded, and made the occasional athletic play when he was in the game. He should have been given more minutes given what he did do. His lack of minutes will end up hurting his grade, as we don’t know if he would have been able to maintain his value playing more minutes. Assessment: KU-level reserve (C-).

Tristan Enaruna did perform slightly better than last season, but across the board he was negative on all categories. His total score was -0.78. He did some things well, but he was a bit soft on both ends of the court. Assessment: Not KU-level (D).

Mitch Lightfoot did not put up a score as high as he should have, given his status as a 5^th year senior. He finished at -0.84. His minutes were mostly due to KU not having a viable back-up at the 5, unlike in years past. His inability to develop offensively is surprising, given how athletic he is and how competent his shot looks. Assessment: Not KU-level (D).

Dejuan Harris made many nice plays last season, but also wasn’t much of an offensive factor. This is why his score was so low at -1.44. Harris has a nice game; he takes care of the ball, sees the floor well, can make an open shot. He needs to improve his scoring and on-ball defense. Assessment: Not KU-level (D-).

DEEP BENCH PLAYERS

Gethro Muscadin didn’t see the court much, and when he did he showed how his size could be of value but not much of his skill. His score was -0.49 while only playing 2.7% of possible minutes. With him transferring out, there’s not much else to say. Assessment: Not KU-level (N/A).

Latrell Jossell also didn’t play much, but his quickness and ball-skill weren’t bad. He is undersized, so might have trouble defending should he get more minutes. His score of -0.19 included some deep jump-shots, showing range. Assessment: Undetermined (N/A).

Chris Teahan was money, and had a score of +0.79 thanks to multiple made shots and decent defense. He could have played 5-10 minutes against most opponents and been fine. Assessment: KU-level walk-on (N/A).

Michael Jankovich was injured for most of the season and played in one game (USC), finishing with a score of -1.87. Assessment: KU-level walk-on (N/A).

To reiterate, the assessments and grades relate to the 2021 season only, and are not a reflection of the player’s potential or a prediction of the player’s value moving forward. Before next season, a prediction of the 2022 season will be published, using players’ historic numbers and historic trends of player improvement over the years.

Having said that, let’s take a look at how close this season’s forecasted Value scores (Adj PPG +/-) were to the actual results. Note that the forecasted numbers weren’t published before now, so you’ll just have to trust these predictions were made before the season:

2021 Player Forecasts vs. Actual PPG +/- scores

The sum of the five starters exceeded their collective forecast by around 3 ppg. Looking back, it is easy to see I should have flipped Braun and Agbaji. In 2020, however, Braun was nearly a full point better than Agbaji, who had a poor season as a sophomore. Agbaji’s sophomore to junior jump was impressive even if we want more out of Och. Wilson was a nice surprise, and McCormack elevated his offensive production as the team’s main interior scorer. KU’s five starters weren’t the problem.

The bench was a major disappointment. Thompson’s forecast was ridiculously off in a bad way, but it was a prediction made after believing much of the hype around him. To a similar extent, this happened on Tyon Grant-Foster. Lightfoot not improving from 2019 was discouraging, and the rest of the bench was tough to predict. Part of Harris’ low score was him getting more minutes than expected. Either way, not a single bench player was able to consistently produce at a level that should warrant considerable time on the floor in a Kansas uniform.

Looking at the team score, the team underperformed what I thought it was capable of. However, the initial form of this team included Silvio De Sousa. De Sousa was a good interior defender in 2020, so his place on the roster would have helped the team immensely on that end. As much as I’d like to predict the 2022 team right now, we’ll let the roster finalize and make forecasts in the fall. There are many moving pieces at the current stage.

Season Stats: Interpretation

Below is a summary of how to interpret the stats published on this website. These stats will differ from the ones traditionally offered.

We will use the 2010 season numbers as a guide. Below are the offensive stats for the 2010 team.

First, let’s start with how the players are sorted. The primary starting five are the first five listed, from point guard to center, 1-5. From here, bench players are listed in order of importance, with the sixth man listed sixth, seventh man listed seventh, and so on until the walk-ons are at the bottom.

Next, let’s look at Offensive Efficiency. Each player’s individual efficiency is calculated, as well as the team’s, and is shown as points per possession (used). For instance if a player produces 110 points and uses 100 possessions, his Off Eff is 1.10. Clearly, higher is better. The color formatting from red to green (bad to good) reflects the efficiency of what a replacement-level KU rotation player should show at average usage. For 2010, most of the team shows green or very faint colors because the team was well-above replacement level offensively.

The third column is Points Accounted For per game. This stat accounts for all plays in which a player creates points: the player scoring unassisted, the player scoring from an assist, as well as the player assisting a teammate’s score. Senior PG Sherron Collins led the team by accounting for 16.9 points per game, which was north of the 15.5 points per game he scored. Guards which tend to create more scoring opportunities–for themselves and others–produce more points for the team than what they actually score. In contrast, some wings and post men score a large portion of their points by finishing plays set up by others, so their PtsAF/gm numbers tend to be less than what their points scored per game is. The nice thing about this stat is that it combines points and assists into one number.

The fourth column is True Shooting Percentage. TS% is calculated by other sources, but the calculation here takes into account that assisted baskets are (or should be) easier to convert than unassisted baskets. It is takes into account actual possessions used on shots (instead of estimating them). This number won’t differ much from other sources, but it should more accurately reflect what occurred when the player shot the ball. The color formatting is from blue (cold) to red (hot). 50% is set as the neutral mark for formatting. Guard C.J. Henry led the team in this stat.

The fifth column is Shot Frequency, which looks at how often that player shot the ball while he was on the floor. The darker the gray is, the more frequent that player took the shot in comparison to his teammates. Looking down the list, one can see that KU relied more heavily on Collins, Marcus Morris, and Xavier Henry to take shots. With five players on the court at once, the average ShotFreq is exactly 20.0%.

The sixth column is similar to the last, and is called Offensive Impact. First, let’s confirm firm that the average Impact number is 20.0% for the same reason as above. But what exactly is Offensive Impact? As the name implies, it looks at how large each player’s impact was on the offensive end in comparison to his teammates. Knowledgeable fans will know what offensive usage is, and this stat is similar. However, Impact uses offensive rebounds differently. Instead of ignoring offensive rebounds or using them against offensive usage, we include them in calculating Impact just as we would a shot. Last, note that this stat and the one above aren’t a measure of value. In other words, Impact calculates all offensive plays–good and bad–that a player has during his minutes. Freshman Thomas Robinson was KU’s most impactful offensive player (28.0%) on a per possession basis, even though he graded out as a negative offensive value player.

The final column is Adjusted PPG +/-, or the value score for each player on the offensive end. This number includes all the information from the previous categories and puts it together in a way that balances offensive production and efficiency. It is also schedule-adjusted to account for the relative strength of opponents. Marcus Morris led the team in this category for 2010 at +2.89. Looking back at earlier columns, we can see he is at or near the top of each offensive stat. The +2.89 number means that he was 2.89 points per game better on offense than a KU-level replacement player at his position. The team score of +7.30 is also very good.

The Defensive stats published on this website far exceed what an official box score can provide. The primary difference is that each point scored by the opponent is counted against the KU defender who was most responsible. This will be explained further below, but it allows us to better grade individual defense instead of having to guess each player’s defensive impact, as other advanced statistical models do.

The Defensive Efficiency column is like its offensive counterpart…points allowed divided by possessions won. The color formatting is inverse offense, with higher numbers being worse. To explain another way, take a look at Sherron Collins’ 1.19 score. This is saying that for every defensive possession that Collins was responsible for, his opponent scored 1.19 points. Def Eff will be tend to be better among big men who grab far more rebounds than small guards.

The next two columns are similar, Points Against per game and Points against per 60 possessions. These stats are carefully charted by observing game film (among other methods) to assign points allowed by individual defenders. Because of the differing minutes played for each player, the PtsAg/60 offers the best look at scoring defense. The color formatting, from green (good) to red (bad) indicates that Tyrel Reed was the team’s best at not allowing his man to score, followed by Collins and Xavier Henry.

The following two columns are likewise similar to each other, Possessions won per game and Possessions won per 60 possessions. To “win” a possession, a player must rebound, block a shot, steal the ball, or force a turnover so that his team gets the ball back without the other team scoring. As one can see, big men excel at winning possessions. This is primarily through rebounding numbers, although blocked shots and forced turnovers also play a part for big men with active hands.

The final column is Adjusted PPG +/-, or the value score for each player on the defensive end. It takes into account a player’s points allowed along with his possessions won, awarding more value to defensive plays that occurred before a shot (steals, forced turnovers) than those that were the result of a miss (rebounds). It is schedule-adjusted to account for the relative strength of opponents. Cole Aldrich led the team at +2.64, bolstered by his rebounding and shot-blocking prowess. Of note might be the large difference between Tyrel Reed and Brady Morningstar. Reed was an underrated defender; whereas Morningstar was the opposite.

The last box combines the offensive and defensive PPG +/- stats into one total number. 0.00 is replacement level (think 7th or 8th man on a KU roster), someone who doesn’t help his team much but doesn’t hurt their chances either.

For 2010, Marcus Morris led the team with a +4.15 score, although Cole Aldrich at +4.02 was statistically identical. The 2010 had tremendous balance and depth, though the bulk of the value was from the top seven players. The team’s score of +14.15 was the third best since 1993, with only the 2008 and 1997 teams scoring higher.