Baylor 80 Kansas 70

CB had his 7th team-MVP of the season at Waco in a loss

Game Summary:

The road Jayhawks got off to a nice start, before allowing Baylor to get back into the game at halftime. The second half was back-and-forth until Baylor took control down the stretch. Kansas had trouble limiting the pick-n-roll options of Baylor and didn’t finish well at the rim on offense.

The wings were great again. Christian Braun’s 17 points and 4 assists produced far more than the 9 points he gave up on defense. Ochai was even more productive with 27 points and 4 assists, with 11 allowed on defense. CB gets the slight advantage in overall value this game due to his far higher offensive and slightly better defensive efficiencies.

On the other end, the two main posts had dreadful defensive outings. David McCormack gave up 25 points due to poor positioning on ball screens, slow recoveries, overhelping, and fouling. Mitch Lightfoot finished with 4 fouls in 3 1/2 minutes, giving up 7 points without even registering a shot on the offensive side. Dejuan Harris had a questionable defensive outing, but it was his offensive game that was worse. Given 7 assists in the official box score, upon closer examination it was clear that most of these were too generous, leaving him with even less of an offensive impact than he might have had otherwise.

The return of Remy Martin was accompanied by nice offense (5 points on 3 shots) and poor defense (5 points allowed). He drew a charge and almost a second (that was called a flop warning instead).

Fatigue seemed to set in down the stretch, as all 5 KU starters played 30+ minutes. Remy was the only bench player with more than 10 minutes, at 11. Despite solid performances either in this game or in recent weeks; Yesufu, Coleman-Lands, Adams, and Clemence combined for only 12 minutes total. The attrition battle showed. KU finished 7-28 from 3 and 17-42 (barely 40%) from inside the arc. Kansas had a 1.27 offensive rating at the 5:30 mark in the 1st half, and then went 0.89 the rest of the way.

The TEAM performance of 2.59 was lower than it otherwise would have been aside from the fouling in the final minute. Still, KU had a chance to keep the game close in the final 4 minutes and could not. Once again, fatigue is a plausible factor. With Martin back and KU at 11 healthy scholarship players, the bench is something that needs to be used.

Kansas 102 Kansas State 83

CB had his 6th team-MVP game, and his first of conference play

Game Summary

An offensive explosion pushed the Jayhawks to 102 points in a 78 possession game (1.31 PPP). Accounting for opponent, location, and tempo; it was the team’s fourth-best outing (Missouri, Iona, St. John’s). The total score of +14.69 was KU’s third consecutive +10 or greater game score. For the season 16/27 games have been +10 or better for KU.

On the individual side, the best overall performance was from Christian Braun, who played solid defense on a night where Kansas gave up 83. Lightfoot and Yesufu were also good on both ends. Other positive performers included Wilson, Agbaji (who outscored a poor defensive game), and Coleman-Lands.

Kansas 71 West Virginia 58

D-Mac had his fourth team-MVP of the season

Game Summary:

David McCormack had his best overall game of the season with a value score above +14.00 thanks to nearly 19 points of offensive production and only 3 points allowed on defense. Joe Yesufu and Jalen Wilson also had solid games. Ochai Agbaji’s offensive output of nearly 20 points produced was offset by allowing 17 points on defense. He did poorly on the possession side of the ledger (had more misses and turnovers than rebounds and steals) which contributed to a negative overall score.

The team’s +14.81 score is currently its 6th best performance of the season.

Kansas 76 Oklahoma State 62

Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji shoots under pressure from Oklahoma State guard Keylan Boone during the first half of Monday's game in Lawrence, Kan. Sixth-ranked Kansas won, 76-62. (Charlie Riedel/AP Photo) — Ochai Agbaji had his best outing since the Texas Tech double OT game, and earned his 10th team-MVP of the year

Game Summary:

Kansas got solid outings from multiple players against Oklahoma State, with Agbaji adding the most value in the game. Och was active on both ends (had 10 defensive rebounds/steals/forced TO’s) to contribute over 9 points in value for the game. David McCormack had a double-double with 12 points and 12 rebounds, and Dejuan Harris also finished with 12 points to go along with 5 assists and solid defense.

Zach Clemence got credit for 6 rebounds to offset an off shooting night. His energy and skill warrant more time moving forward.

Unlike last game where they were the two best players, Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson were not as sharp. CB managed to add some value, making him 21/25 with a positive-value game. J-Wil missed some layups with the game already decided, hurting his offensive production value.

Joseph Yesufu didn’t do much on offense despite playing over 22 minutes. He balanced an assist with a turnover, but it was his 1/5 shooting that affected his score.

Neither K.J. Adams nor Bobby Pettiford played long enough to record much activity. Adams fought for a loose ball to get a tie-up (that went OSU’s way) and Pettiford had a post feed to McCormack that got him an assist in the official box score.

The walk-ons made the final score closer than it should have been. A team score of +10.34 is lower than it otherwise would have been. For the game, the team’s offensive and defensive efficiency (opponent-adjusted) were each above-bubble.

Kansas 71 Oklahoma 69

Jalen Wilson's game-high 22 points and 9 boards tops ratings after big second half pushes KU past Oklahoma | The KUsports.com Ratings | KUsports.com — Wilson had his 4th team-MVP of the season

Game Summary:

Kansas was carried to victory by Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun, the only two Hawks to finish with above-bubble numbers for the game. Wilson produced over 22 points of value on excellent efficiency, while only giving up 8 points on defense. Braun was not quite as productive or efficient (although he was still very solid), but his defense was even stronger than Wilson’s (7 points allowed, more rebounds/steals/forced TO’s).

Zach Clemence came back from injury to help spark the Kansas comeback. He did finish with a negative score, which is more due to the fickle nature of a one-game moment than in how he played. He knocked down an assisted three, grabbed a few rebounds, and played solid defense for the most part. The only downsides to his performance was the missed free throws and a late and deep three that his opponent hit during OU’s desperation spurt during the final minute. If Zach gets more minutes and plays like he did, he will start putting up positive game scores.

The other Jayhawks were negative performers. David McCormack started out strong, but his defense (16 points allowed) negated his inside scoring presence. Neither Mitch Lightfoot nor K.J. Adams did much aside from Adams’s strong defense on the final possession of the game.

Ochai Agbaji had trouble scoring with the tight defense Oklahoma was applying. He forced quite a few bad shots, hurting his efficiency and thus his value. Dejuan Harris was okay at times, but his weakness handling the ball in the final seconds almost cost KU the game. As a PG, he has to be stronger with his team ahead in the final moments. Coleman-Lands and Yesufu did next to nothing in their limited minutes.

The team score of +0.16 places their performance right on the bubble-line. It was the team’s worst performance since Kentucky and worst conference game since the 1-point win against Iowa State at home.

The four non-post starters played 39, 38, 38, and 37 minutes. The reserve guards played less than 8 minutes, while D-Mac/Lightfoot/Adams/Clemence split 40 minutes at the 5. Using the adjusted HHI formula, this was KU’s most concentrated lineup of the season (0.781). Self tends to sub quite a bit less in close games, but his rotations Saturday were extreme.

Texas 79 Kansas 76

Wilson's double-double good for top spot on a tough night in Texas | The KUsports.com Ratings | KUsports.com — Jalen Wilson had his best over-all performance Monday night against Texas, earning his third team-MVP of the season

Game Summary:

In a disappointing result, Kansas gave up a four-point lead with a minute to play to lose 79-76. Texas scored the final 7 points to send the Jayhawks home with their second conference loss. The game was a high-scoring affair considering how good Texas’s defense has been this season.

Jalen Wilson earns team MVP honors for a value score of over +10 points. He scored and rebounded well, while giving up only 9 points in nearly 32 minutes of play. Joseph Yesufu also had his best game of the season, pouring in 8 points and an assist with efficient numbers. He gave up 5 points in 15 minutes, which is right on the pace of an average defender. This was Yesufu’s first time to outscore his man since the Missouri game. The game seems to be coming back to him, which can only help this team.

Other positives included Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun. Och played fine with constant attention, he continued to defend and rebound. Braun had a nice game going until the last 3:30, missing 2 FT’s and allowing his man a tip-in and then a midrange jumper during UT’s 9-4 closing stretch.

Dejuan Harris did not have a great game, but he still distributed it well enough (5 assists) to show a serviceable value number. David McCormack’s solid offensive game (1.29 PPPaf, 16 points, 3 off rebounds) was erased with a dreadful defensive game (21 points allowed). Texas continued to attack him by having his man set high ball-screens. He was slow rotating back on numerous occasions. He did give up the late banked-in 3, a lucky shot but one that was possible due to slow rotation.

The other reserves were not value-adding in their limited minutes of play. K.J. Adams showed poor post defense. Mitch Lightfoot was the same. Bobby Pettiford had a disastrous turnover which led to a late 3 to end the first half.

The TEAM score of +6.80 is below the season average (+9.91), but still within the realm of respectability. KU played well enough to win were it not for a run of poor play and bad luck down the stretch. The performance was good enough to win most nights, just not against a Top 20 team on the road.

Kansas 83 Baylor 59

Feb 5, 2022; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Ochai Agbaji (30) shoots as Baylor Bears forward Flo Thamba (0) and guard Adam Flagler (10) defend during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports — Agbaji came back from a one-game absence to post his 9th team-MVP of the season

Game Summary:

All 10 of KU’s rotation players posted positive value against Baylor. This is the first time to my knowledge that this has happened over the course of 15+ seasons. KU got great efforts from everyone.

Leading the pack was Ochai Agbaji, who finished with 18 points and 9 rebounds. He didn’t produce as much on offense as Christian Braun (18 points) did, but had the better defensive game. Mitch Lightfoot went 4-4 from the floor, added 7 rebounds, and only gave up 3 points on defense.

Jalen Coleman-Lands finished with 8 points in 11 minutes with solid defense. Dejuan Harris posted a very good score despite only scoring 2 points. He dished 7 assists and only gave up 3 points on defense over 28+ minutes of play. Jalen Wilson added 15 points and 4 assists, although his defense wasn’t good. David McCormack hit the glass to account for 8 rebounds, which was the bulk of his value considering he scored and allowed nearly the same amount.

Joe Yesufu and K.J. Adams are barely on the plus side, but Yesufu had a nice shot for 3 and played well on defense. Adams didn’t score but posted positive value because he played solid defense against a good team.

Both walk-ons had poor outings.

At +29.30, this was the team’s best game of the season. If KU had this type of performance against a bubble-team on a neutral site, it would expect to win by ~29.3 points.

Kansas 70 Iowa State 61

Jayhawks don't need Agbaji to beat Iowa St | News, Sports, Jobs - Times Republican — David McCormack was KU’s MVP on Tuesday night

Game Summary:

D-Mac and Harris carried Kansas, as each had his best game of the season on a night where neither Ochai Agbaji nor Remy Martin were available. McCormack was great, 7-7 FG’s and 14 points with 14 rebounds. He also played solid defense, although this was partially due to a good matchup. Harris’s night was his best offensive game of his career, he added value not only from scoring but also from 9 assists.

Jalen Wilson bounced back from a rough first half to finish with a positive score. Only giving up 8 points in 36 minutes shows how far his perimeter defense has come. Joseph Yesufu also had a positive game in 22 minutes of play, and his score is somewhat affected downward by his matchup. Iowa State is perimeter-oriented on the offense, meaning he was at risk for giving up more points than say, McCormack. Still, going forward if he continues to play well expect him to produce some positive minutes.

Everyone else had negative-value games. Bobby Pettiford didn’t play much. Jalen Coleman-Lands began the game with a few nice jumpers, but gave up some baskets on the other end as well as failed to get back in transition at times. Mitch Lightfoot wasn’t effective in his few minutes. Christian Braun missed a few shots he could have made, and also had some bad luck in giving up 3 of ISU’s 5 threes. Braun has been slumping of late, but looks like he could break out at any time. K.J. Adams had the worst game of his season, giving up the other 2 ISU threes in limited minutes. But as said earlier with Yesufu, more minutes will even out matchups and tough shots by opponents. For the year, K.J. has been a positive contributor who adds an element that other 5-men don’t have.

The team score of +14.82 is Kansas’s best game since West Virginia and the second-best of the calendar year of 10 games. To do so without Agbaji and Martin shows the team has depth and toughness.

KU’s playing time distribution was the most concentrated its been all year, meaning KU relied heavily on a few players instead of spreading the minutes to a number of players. The five starters plus Yesufu played all but 18 minutes. The HHI score was 0.751, which is well-above the season average of 0.643. This isn’t too surprising considering KU was without two key players.

How many points is Ochai Agbaji worth?

Ochai Agbaji will not play the Iowa State game tonight (February 1, 2022) due to Covid protocols. Before the news the opening line was -4.5 KU, however it now sits at -2.5 KU with fewer than four hours before tip-off. It could go move more in that time period, but as of now it’s only moved 2 points in favor of ISU following the news.

This seems to be too small of movement. Ochai Agbaji has been KU’s best player, averaging 20.9 PPG on 46.4% 3-point shooting. He is getting attention as a national player of the year candidate, and is certainly on pace to reach first team all-American. Other Jayhawk notables such as Remy Martin or David McCormack who could theoretically take more of a scoring role in his absence have struggled for much of the season.

Player value is what this site is about. Before we get to what the stats say, let’s look back at a couple of other recent instances where a star KU guard missed a road game and what happened to the line. In the 2020 season, PG Devon Dotson was a late scratch for a road game at Oklahoma. Kansas was just coming off a rough home lost (sound familiar?) to Baylor, and the news was concerning for those wanting the Hawks to get back on track. The line started out as -6.5 KU and finished at -4.5 KU, a movement of 2 points. For some reason, memory seems to indicate that the line moved even more toward OU before reverting back toward KU closer to tip. A Marcus Garrett-led Kansas team would pull away in the second half to win 66-52.

Just last season, Marcus Garrett was the star guard finding himself as the one missing a road game (this time against TCU). Once again, Kansas was coming off a bad home loss (this time to Texas). Dajuan Harris would get the start, David McCormack would finish with 20 points, and KU would cruise to a 93-64 in Fort Worth. Interestingly, the line moved from -4 KU to -6 KU, indicating that Garrett’s injury was likely announced before betting was opened on the game, thus his injury had no effect on the difference between the beginning and closing lines. KenPom, who doesn’t adjust his lines for player injury, only had KU as 4-point road favorites. If anything, Vegas was undisturbed by Garrett’s absence.

The lesson going in to tonight is don’t count out Kansas yet. Even without Ochai, they have a solid rotation and are playing against a team ranked 113^th in adjusted offense.

Ochai’s Value

So far in the season, Charting the Hawks has Agbaji as a +6.29 player, meaning he has been 6.29 points better than a hypothetical replacement player. This replacement level is set at the “bubble” level. In other words, the comparison is to a player who provides average value for a bubble team (think starter but not star for a bubble team). A +6.29 score is very good, and Agbaji’s 2022 season would be the fifth-best season of any Jayhawk since 1997 should it hold.

Our first estimate of not having Agbaji will be -6.29 for Kansas. So if Vegas thought KU would be -4.5 with Agbaji, maybe without him the line should be +1.5 or +2.

This is but the first estimate. We must consider other factors. For one, neither KU (nor any other team) has a player that is a precise “replacement player” in terms of value. Ochai’s minutes aren’t going to be replaced by someone exactly -6.29 points per game worse than he. Rather, they will be distributed among different KU players, some of whom are skilled players and positive contributors. For the season, Agbaji is playing 85.7% of KU’s minutes, or 34.3 out of 40 minutes. So KU will need to come up with about 34 minutes to make up what Och has been averaging.

A decent portion of these minutes will go to Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson, two wings who are playing better than the hypothetical “replacement player” we discussed earlier. Likely some additional minutes will go to Remy Martin (if healthy) and Jalen Coleman-Lands. Again, both of these guys are better than replacement level, but not by much. There’s also a chance that K.J. Adams gets some minutes at the 4 to account for less wing depth. He has also been a positive-value KU player.

Perhaps Pettiford and Yesufu, two PG-types with poor seasons to this point, will play more, but it’s not likely that either will need to play much even with Ochai’s absence.

The point is, KU will be replacing Ochai’s minutes with better-than-average players, even though no one has been at Agbaji’s level of performance this season. To calculate a more accurate loss of value, we will distribute Ochai’s minutes mostly to the wings (Braun, Wilson, Coleman-Lands, Adams) and a small portion to the guards (Martin, Harris, Yesufu, Pettiford). From there, we will take each player’s per-minute value, leveraged up to the estimated minutes each will play tonight. Adding this together, we get a new team value-score of +4.87. Since the current team value-score is +8.84, we estimate that Agbaji is worth about four points to this year’s team.

Final Thoughts

These estimates have trouble taking into consideration how differently KU might play without Agbaji. Luckily for Kansas, it has quite a bit of wing and guard depth. Furthermore, Och’s shot volume will be replaced by capable players even though these guys haven’t been as good as Agbaji of course. Another factor is scouting. Not having Ochai might throw off Iowa State’s defense, which has prepared to play against him. KU might have new sets that get them an extra bucket or two that their opponents weren’t prepared for.

Hoop-explorer tracks on/off efficiency, essentially showing how a team does when a certain player is on the court vs. off the court. Unsurprisingly, KU has been much better with Agbaji in the game (Net rating of 32.1 vs. 8.2). This is quite a large difference. But some of this is due to Agbaji being out of the game in weaker lineups. Once you remove the walkons, Yesufu, Clemence, and Pettiford; the difference is less pronounced (32.9 vs. 18.1). This works out to about a 9-point difference over a period of 68 possessions. That’s still a big gap. So who knows?

In closing, the line only moving 2 points is likely undervaluing Och’s presence on Kansas. If KU with Ochai is 4.5 point favorites, they are probably either -1 or even Pick without him. However, in a one game scenario, I’m not sure if that is a huge betting edge.

Kentucky 80 Kansas 62

Game Summary:

Kentucky used a hot-shooting first half to cruise to an 18-point win. Kansas could never recover from the large first-half deficit it found itself in. It lost the battle of the boards (41-29) and second chance points (17-6); other than that the game was a more respectable margin.

Mitch Lightfoot earned his first game MVP of the season, battling on the boards and winning three additional defensive possessions by forcing a non-steal turnover. He did a far better job of guarding Kentucky’s center than David McCormack did. Bobby Pettiford played solid defense and even added a late basket in his 10 minutes of work. Dejuan Harris was also respectable. Remy Martin and Jalen Coleman-Lands finished slightly positive in limited minutes off the bench.

On the other side of the value ledger, starting wings Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji had slightly negative value games Saturday night. Neither shot great. K.J. Adams had a tough defensive game at times, but did finish two assisted baskets. Joseph Yesufu had a couple missed shots, a turnover, and a rebound in his few minutes of play.

These players combined were about -2 points unadjusted, meaning that these players cumulatively played well enough to only be down 2 points to Kentucky. Thus the reason for the blowout was largely due to the poor play of the next two players, Jalen Wilson and especially David McCormack.

Wilson had a poor shooting game, whereas his counterpart 4 man (Brooks) had a career-high 27. Wilson did grab 8 rebounds, but it was his second-worst game of the season once adjusted for opponent. David McCormack was outplayed by Kentucky’s center (Tshiebwe), as he gave up 16 points in only 15 minutes of court time. It was McCormack’s second-worst game of the season, and his second very poor game in a row.

In closing, no one played great for Kansas, but the reason for the blowout loss was primarily due to the 4 and 5 positions. Both were constantly out of position on defense, and didn’t make enough plays to recover.