Kansas 88, Texas 80

Kansas went to 19-5 (7-4) with a huge Big Monday win. Dejuan Harris led the team in value, producing a value-score of +7.29 for his second team-MVP game of the season. He had a positive impact on both ends of the floor to help the Hawks secure the victory. Kevin McCullar was also effective, scoring in double-figures while also adding offensive value through numerous assists. McCullar has had a nice stretch over his past 5 games, averaging +5.44 points of value per game above bubble. K.J. Adams also contributed a positive outing for only the second time in his last 7.

On the negative side of things, Jalen Wilson had his worst game of the season in an uncharacteristic manner. Scoring on 2 points and adding an assist, Wilson was shut down on the offensive end all night. He also gave up more baskets than he’s accustomed to, contributing to his second game of the year where he had a negative effect on both ends of the floor (Indiana was the other). Strange as it may be, Jalen seems to play better when others around him aren’t.

Gradey Dick had as good an offensive outing as anyone Monday night (tied with McCullar, who added his offensive value in a different style). Dick went 2-3 from downtown and finished at the rim effectively to produce nearly 5 points of offensive value. It was his defense which drove him into the red, particularly late in the game. Dick has been a serviceable defender, particularly when you consider his age and role on the team. He has to continue to work on improving on that end and prove his worth, as team’s will game plan around his perceived weaknesses.

Now on to the bench. With five scholarship players out due to injury (Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Cuffe, Martin), KU went into the game knowing it had to make due with a shortened rotation. And the reserves who were healthy stepped up in a big way. Joe Yesufu had his best offensive game of the season and has now produced three consecutive positive outings for his team. Ernest Udeh finally broke into the plus-side of things. He’s been bringing good energy recently, but his value scores weren’t showing the full effort he brought. M.J. Rice made numerous good hustle plays, finishing with a basket and a couple assists and solid defense in 14.6 minutes of play. The bench has now outperformed the starting 5 for 3 games in a row.

Kansas 53, Iowa St. 68

In an ugly game that would have been even uglier if not for Jalen Wilson, KU shot 26% from 3 and had 20 turnovers to reach its second-lowest point total in a game this season. Wilson had his 3rd-best opponent-adjusted game of the season, accounting for a fraction over 24 points while only allowing 6 on the defensive end. He went for 39 minutes yet still competed on both ends of the floor. He desperately needs consistent production from others on the team.

Joseph Yesufu was the other Jayhawk to have a positive-impact Saturday. Yes made a couple of jump shots in his nearly 20 minutes of work, balanced out by solid defense. He’s been a bubble-level player over the past 7 games (86.7 minutes of play), a trend which will hopefully continue.

On the other side of things, the play of Dejuan Harris has been the biggest harbinger of victory or defeat. In the past 5 games, he’s had his worst 3 games of the season which were all defeats. When he’s played well, KU has won. In his past dozen outings, he’s produced a value score of -1.12 PPG, which is worse than his play last season. For KU to win, he has to be better.

Gradey Dick has also been slumping of late, but his worsening value scores are primarily due to missed shots. He’s doing much of the other things better, aside from turnovers which have also ticked up as he has been attempting to put the ball on the deck more.

After 11 consecutive above-bubble games for K.J. Adams, he has produced negative-value scores in 5 of his last 6. He has been struggling to finish some of the plays he was making earlier in the season, and his defense continues to lag behind as he fails to drop well on ball-screen coverage or get many defensive rebounds. He’s still KU’s best option at the 5.

Kevin McCullar, in turn, has generally been playing good ball of late. His defense has reached the point of being the team’s best. He is a great defensive rebounder, attacking the glass with his long frame to finish possessions after an opponent’s missed shot. He also gets his fair amount of steals, blocks, and forced turnovers. Offensively, his game has been a challenge. Since conference play began, he’s only had 2 games above bubble-value from the offensive side of things. KU can live with this, as long as his defense stays stingy. In the 11 games (beginning with Oklahoma State), he’s averaged a defensive game score of +3.06.

Kansas 90, Kansas State 78

The Jayhawks put the Cats back in their place, using a strong opening half to cruise to a double-digit victory. Kevin McCullar graded out as the team’s best Tuesday night, with Dejuan Harris close behind. Bobby Pettiford had his best performance of the seasons to lead a bench effort that was likewise its best. In fact, the bench outdid the starting 5 last night for Kansas. This was only the 3rd time in 22 games that the bench scored better.

Other positive performances included Zach Clemence, Joseph Yesufu, and Jalen Wilson. On the negative-value side, Ernest Udeh allowed too many baskets while K.J. Adams and Gradey Dick battled foul trouble and worse-than-usual offensive outings.

Comparing Starter vs. Bench Value Across the Big 12

“Starters” reflects the Top 5 players on the team in minutes played. Due to injuries, rotation patterns, and so on; what constitutes a starter might differ from team-to-team. The term “crunch-time five” might also apply. These numbers are in Points Above Bubble through 1/29/23:

Kansas leads the league with a top five which is collectively 12.41 points above bubble per game. There is a large gap until you get to the rest of the pack. The list is in alphabetical order.

The bench refers to the rest of the roster combined. Walk-ons are included, but their numbers are negligible. This shows the collective points against bubble of the reserves in a per game ratio:

The best bench is Texas’ bench, which is slightly above bubble-level. Iowa State and Oklahoma State are also above-bubble. As you can see, Kansas’ bench is by far the lowest. The below chart graphs this out, putting the starters on the X-Axis and bench on the Y-Axis. To the right and up is where you want your team to be. See if you can tell which button Kansas is represented by:

A Per32 look is also instructive. First, look at the average starter for each team in a 32 minute span. This will be a good estimate of how much value a certain team’s average starter can provide if playing a decent load of minutes.

Now the same thing, just with the bench.

KU’s starters are clearly the class of the league, but its reserves are so far behind it almost boggles the mind. KU’s bench isn’t just bad, it’s also the most noticeable unit in this exercise. Any bubble-level player from past seasons, such as a freshman Christian Braun or a sophomore Landen Lucas or a junior Naadir Tharpe, would make this team 2 to 3 points better per game. KU can only make this work as good as it has because it plays its starters the bulk of available minutes (77.4%, leads the conference). If it lost anyone of its starting 5 for a decent amount of time, it would get noticeably worse.

One more note about the Kansas starters. If you removed Jalen Wilson, the other four starters would still produce an above-bubble value which is above 6.00 points per game. That group would still be 5^th in the conference among starting 5’s, but very close to the other 4 teams and under 1.00 point per game below the new first-place team. With Jalen, its not even close who has the best starting 5. Effectively, Jalen’s excellent season is mostly being washed away by the team’s poor bench.

Kansas 77, Kentucky 68

Kansas got a huge win, breaking its 3-game skid. Jalen Wilson had his 11th team-MVP game of the season and his 9th consecutive above-bubble-value game. Each starter produced a positive-value game, where each bench-player was negative. Ernest Udeh had the best game off the bench, and was a bit unlucky to end up below zero. He got lost on a rotation which ended in a 3-point basket.

Ranking the Best in the Big 12

Below are the top 25 players in the Big 12 through: 1/25/2023, linked also here. This ranking covers the entire season of play, not just Big 12 games. This list will be updated on the other link weekly or so, whenever time permits.

The list is sorted on Per Game, which is the Adj. PPG +/- estimate for Big 12 players. Note that for the 9 non-KU Big 12 teams, these are estimates using only box score data. The data for KU players is more complete, as it uses defensive coverage stats (and other non-box-score statistics).

For non-KU players, the actual Adj. PPG +/- number could be higher or lower. This will largely depend on how much better that player is than his team’s average defender, as defensive coverage stats are estimated by divvying out the team’s defensive value among its roster by minutes played. The takeaway is this. For non-KU players, his score is roughly accurate but could vary by as much as 1.00 point per game (or 2.00 points per 100) depending on his defense. If you have good reason to think his defense is much better than average, add some value up to 1.00. Or if he is a less-than-skilled defender, his value may be overstated to some degree.

As far as conference Player of the Year goes, the race is currently between Jalen Wilson and Markquis Nowell. Team success will play into it somewhat, if either Kansas or Kansas State wins the league it might make the difference in who wins this award, but consistency in the area of scoring will be the biggest determinant. Nowell has been a double-figure scorer in 17 of 20 games this season, and two of those were 9-point performances. His low, against Kansas ironically enough, was 4 points.

Jalen Wilson has reached double figure in all of his 20 games, with a season low of 11. Wilson is the better rebounder and has more shot volume, whereas Nowell is the better shooter (TS%) and assist-man. Either would be an acceptable choice at this point.

The other Jayhawk on this list is Gradey Dick, at #8. He checks in as the second-best freshman, only slightly behind Keyonte George. There is a lot of experience on this list. Multiple fourth and fifth-year players are having good seasons. Quite a few of these names were actually born in the 1990’s, making them 23 turning 24 this year. Getting old has been the recipe for success in the post-pandemic era.

Other notable Jayhawks include Dejuan Harris (#26), K.J. Adams (#31), and Kevin McCullar (#32). Right now, KU should have one conference first-teamer and one second-teamer.

If we filter to only include the Big 12 players with at least 100 minutes, which is around 12% of total playing time (each team will have its own number of possible minutes played, but for convenience sake using 100 as a filter works); we get a total set of 97 players. Here are the KU players who qualify, and their conference ranks:

(#1) Jalen Wilson: +9.88

(#14) Gradey Dick: +5.08

(#33) Dejuan Harris: +2.05

(#37) K.J. Adams: +1.74

(#39) Kevin McCullar: +1.52

(#78) Zuby Ejiofor: -3.35

(#88) Joseph Yesufu: -4.61

(#96) M.J. Rice: -6.91

(#97) Bobby Pettiford: -7.95

Compared to the rest of the conference, KU has an elite star, an excellent #2 option, a collection of above-average starters who add a small but positive level of value, and a bench that is among the worst in the league. Actually, other benches are also struggling, even amongst the conference’s good teams. K-State has two elite college players, but after that it goes downhill. Only Texas features a solid, top-to-bottom rotation among its top 8-10 players. The Longhorns are the only school which doesn’t feature a player with a Per100 below -3.00 among its players with at least 100 minutes. In fact, their depth is easily the best in the Big 12. The worst Longhorn is still currently better than -1.00 Per100. Texas’ rotation is deep and experienced.

Kansas 69, Baylor 75

Positives: Kevin McCullar had KU’s best game, thanks to a strong defensive effort. While he was only 3-9 from the floor, his 8-8 from the FT line got him to 14 points. He also added 12 rebounds (10 defensive) on a night where Kansas struggled to finish possessions on the defensive end. Gradey Dick had his best game since Indiana despite battling first half foul trouble. Jalen Wilson had another solid offensive game. His efficiency of late has been a consistent bright spot for the team. M.J. Rice finished with 2 points and 4 value rebounds.

Negatives: Dejuan Harris had his second-consecutive all-around very poor game. He scored 2 points on 1-5 shooting and allowed 16 points to the Baylor guards. K.J. Adams was also inefficient on offense while giving up too many points on defense. With only 1 defensive rebound, this was his 6th conference game (out of 8) in which he has failed to secure at least 3 defensive boards. He is leaving value on the floor by not coming up with loose balls. Ernest Udeh only played a few minutes, but a defensive blunder led to an open 3. Bobby Pettiford missed his only shot attempt and allowed a basket. Joe Yesufu didn’t score, but did come up with some nice hustle plays (1 steal, 3 defensive rebounds). Unfortunately, in the first half he also fumbled a potential defensive board that Baylor converted into points.

The TEAM had a positive-value game (meaning they performed better than a bubble-level team would be expected to), and this was with Self getting his 3rd technical of the season and gifting Baylor 2 points. The starters were collectively positive with the bench giving away value.

Comparing the 2023 team to Preseason Expectations

For reference, at this point of the season, KU is 16-3 and about to play at Baylor. The season is about half-way done. Let’s look at each player compared to his preseason expectation in the value stat Adj. PPG +/-.

Dejuan Harris (RS Jr.) Projection: -0.28, Current: +1.79

The biggest question on Harris was if he could score more this season. Until recently, the answer was a resounding “yes.” In the past three games, he’s only scored 3 points (on 1-13 FGs and 0-0 FTs). Even when accounting for this recent scoring slump, Harris has scored at a better rate than past seasons. Looking at Per100 value, his scoring value was at -4.47 in 2021 and at -4.09 last season. This has improved to -2.32 this season. Improvement is this area is key. Harris will continue to recover value through his consistently strong ball-handling and defense. It is his scoring that will determine how successful of a player he will be in his career.

Speaking of Harris’ defense, it’s on this side of the ball where he’s improved more. He’s always had quick hands and been good at anticipating the opponent’s movements, but now he has tightened up his coverage skills and allowed fewer easy baskets. Last season he added +2.24 points based on his defensive coverage per 100 possessions, this season it is +4.40. These are subtle differences when watching the game, but it really adds up over the course of a season.

Projecting out the rest of the season, we know that Harris will play and play a lot. The team is going to need some more scoring out of him. He was in double-digits in half of his first 16 games. If he can put up 10+ points every other game or so, it will be enough to keep him around +2.00 in value per game for the season.

Kevin McCullar (Sr.) Projection: +1.94, Current +0.17

Kevin McCullar was KU’s big off-season transfer portal veteran pickup, continuing in the same vein as Remy Martin, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and Isaiah Moss. However, he has underperformed expectations due to inconsistent play and poor offense. McCullar had a poor start through his first 7 games, but picked up his play with great outings against Seton Hall and Missouri. Since that time, he’s been up-and-down, with 2 poor performances coming against K-State and TCU. As he goes, so goes the team. His best games have come in KU wins, particularly KU blowouts. His worst games have coincided with games where the team has struggled.

McCullar’s offense was the question mark coming in, and if anything, it’s only grown larger. His shooting is up-and-down (currently down), and he’s turning it over more frequently than in years past. He’s best when he’s cutting off the ball and attacking the offensive glass. He needs to get comfortable in that role, and find his shot again, for him to be the type of player he was brought to Kansas to be.

Defensively, he’s been great at times. He gets steals, rebounds, and forces turnovers at a strong rate. At times he’s been out of position or gambled to the point of giving up an easy basket. In total, his defense is third-best on the team (this number fluctuates more than offense, by season’s end it could easily be second or first). He’s been about as good as advertised, although by tightening things up he could add even more for this team.

McCullar needs to find confidence with his shot and make decisive actions with the ball. He isn’t going to be the team’s best weapon on that end, but he’s good enough to be a neutral-value type player. The fact he’s losing -1.20 points per game against a bubble-level player is inexcusable.

Gradey Dick (Fr.) Projection: +1.57, Current +2.41

Freshmen are the toughest to predict. Recruiting rankings give us a rough idea as to how good the player is supposed to be, but sometimes it takes a while for it to click. KU’s had elite, 1-and-done types (like Andrew Wiggins). It has also seen top recruits struggle despite being given ample playing time and shot volume (Quentin Grimes, Bryce Thompson).

Gradey Dick has been one of the good ones. All of their games are slightly different, but KU has had a collection of very good freshmen wings over the years. Henry. McLemore. Wiggins. Oubre. Jackson. This season, Gradey Dick has continued that tradition. He’s the best shooter of the bunch, but he’s also improved his on-ball defense and rebounding. He also doesn’t force too much (low turnover numbers), keeping his value as high as possible.

Areas for improvement continue to be finishing at the rim and staying aware on defense. He’s been in a shooting slump recently, but that won’t last forever. He hustles and competes, therefore adding winning-plays even in games where he isn’t shooting efficiently. Still, his value this season will depend on how he shoots.

Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) Projection: +2.79, Current +6.04

One reason Jalen Wilson returned to Kansas this season was because he’d seen what other players (such as Ochai Agbaji) had done in returning. But Wilson has been even better than Agbaji was last season. Officially averaging 21.3 points per game, Wilson has been a solid defender and rebounder as well. He’s put together 17 positive-value games out of 19, which is a level of consistency not seen since Frank Mason in 2017.

It’s easy to say now, but Wilson’s projection was too conservative. Getting a higher volume of shots allows him to really extend his value-range, as he is a capable volume scorer. Without Wilson on this roster, KU would be a bubble-level team. He’s been that invaluable.

We mentioned that Kevin McCullar tends to play well in the games where KU plays well, conversely there is no correlation between Wilson’s best games and the team’s best games. If anything, Wilson does better in picking up his teammates during their worst performances. The key for Wilson is to not get stressed out or frustrated and try to do too much. The rest of the team will start to play well again at some point.

K.J. Adams (So.) Projection: +0.28, Current +1.30

Adams’ projection was based upon his athletic strengths and his defensive abilities. What was totally unexpected was his offensive skills. He averages double-figures on excellent efficiency, utilizing his skillset to play a small-ball 5 and take advantage of slower opponents. He is KU’s third-best offensive player so far this year, and closer to number two Gradey Dick than number four Dejuan Harris.

His defensive presence has been affected by his role as the team’s starting 5-man. He is still a solid perimeter defender for someone his size. He plays hard, draws charges, knocks the ball away, gets the occasional block, and so on. Yet he also gives up size inside and is a very weak rebounder. He is still a positive-value defender. If he could get his hands on a few more rebounds, this would quickly improve his defensive value.

Bobby Pettiford (So.) Projection: -0.59, Current -2.07

Getting now to reserves, Bobby Pettiford has the most minutes off the bench. He’s produced the most offense off the bench, shooting an efficient percentage while dishing out a fair amount of assists. However, the value he’s produced this season has been dreadful. He’s turning it over too much for a point-guard type, and despite his efficiency is not taking enough shots to add offensive value. On defense, he’s allowing 13.9 points per 60 possessions (the worst starter, Kevin McCullar is at 11.9 on far more minutes). Combined with his low numbers of rebounds and steals, his defense is -4.76 points per 100 possessions compared to a bubble-level player. His size is a factor, particularly on switches. He has not defended well, and I’m not sure why he checks in for late-game defensive possessions.

Joe Yesufu (Jr.) Projection: -0.35, Current -0.95

Yesufu has played a fair number of minutes as well backing up the starting wings. He’s shot about as poorly as last year. He did show some offensive skill in back-to-back 14-point outings against Tennessee and Texas Southern, but since that time he’s been bad. Injury may have something to do with this. On defense, he’s guarded better than others off the bench. He is adding a small amount of defensive value thanks to strong on-ball defense. He uses his strength and competes. He won’t get many steals or rebounds, but he is the best perimeter defender from the reserves.

Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) Projection: -0.18, Current -0.33

In the carousel which is the back-up 5-spot, Zuby Ejiofor has gotten the most minutes. He is performing about as well as expected. His defense outshines his raw offensive game at this point, and his per-100 rebounding value equates to +2.32 points above bubble. He has also done relatively well at disallowing his man easy baskets. He generally stays in a good position, staying between his man in the basket, which likely helps his rebounding numbers. He’d be my first choice off the bench going forward.

M.J. Rice (Fr.) Projection: +0.69, Current -1.11

Rice’s season has been plagued by ailments. His playing time has diminished significantly during conference play, and he hasn’t actually taken a shot since the Harvard game. He certainly exudes potential. Good size, athletic, skilled, etc. His defense has been the worse-half of his game, as he doesn’t do anything bubble-level on that end (coverage, pressure, or rebounding). For Rice to add value for this team, it will have to be in extended minutes and as an offensive weapon. Depending on how McCullar performs, it might be worth taking another shot with M.J.

Ernest Udeh (Fr.) Projection: +0.12, Current -0.51

Udeh is yet another under-performing bench player. His current value is also in limited playing time (less than 5 minutes per game KU has played). He does not play disciplined in the post, and will give up baskets to skilled and patient opponents. His offensive game is limited to plays at the rim. Yet, he too has potential. He was good enough in the preseason to earn a start against Pitt State in the exhibition game. He is excellent at finishing lob dunks and uses that frame to block shots. He had good outings early on, but against higher-level competition gets exposed.

Zach Clemence (So.) Projection: +0.47, Current -1.47

Clemence has greatly underperformed expectations. Last season, he was able to produce a season nearly at bubble-level thanks to good hustle plays (offensive rebounds, rim protection). With his capacity to shoot the ball, it seemed natural that he would play an important role on this year’s team. Things haven’t worked out that way. He’s been the worst per possession performer of any KU player to get rotation minutes (at least 10% of team’s available minutes). In fact, he is -14.6 per 100 possessions, which is nearly 7.0 points worse per 100 than Bobby Pettiford or M.J. Rice. If there is someone to drop from the rotation based on current in-game performance, at this point it has to be Zach.

Michael Jankovich (Sr.) Projection: -0.36, Current +0.38

Moving now to the part of the rotation that only gets spot minutes, or less than 10% of available court-time. Walk-on Michael Jankovich has added a small amount of value in his nearly 16 minutes. He’s scored 11 points on 4-5 shooting (3-4 from 3). While a few shots at the end of non-close games isn’t too relevant as projecting out future performance, he’s been KU’s best bench player. This raises the question, should he get a chance to play meaningful minutes? He can at least shoot.

Cam Martin (RS Sr.) Projection: -0.31, Current -0.71

Martin’s season got sidelined with a shoulder injury, but he came back to appear in 4 games and score 7 points. His offensive value per 100 is extremely good (thanks to limited minutes), whereas his defense is even worse (in part due to limited minutes). We really only have the eye-test to judge him on, as his stats aren’t over a large sample size. His best minutes came at Texas Tech, where he scored a basket, grabbed a rebound, and got a steal without any negative plays. It’s doubtful Martin plays more than 5 minutes in any one game. But we can’t write him off this team completely, either. He has offensive skills and a nice shot. Whether that can be utilized to help KU in the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament is another question.

Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.35, Current -2.00

Cuffe got injured in the team’s second game and has only played 6+ minutes. He isn’t schedule to return until February at the earliest, which may necessitate a medical redshirt. He was never expected to do much, but given how weak the bench has been, it would have been interesting to see if he could work himself into being a good defender at the very least.

Dillon Wilhite (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.53, Current -0.46

Dillon has played in 5 ½ minutes so far and has yet to take a shot (or record any stat save a foul). He has also given up 2 points. For a walk-on, this is typical.

Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.53, Current DNP

Charlie has yet to play. He didn’t suit up earlier in the season, which caused me to think he was injured. Since he redshirted last season, I didn’t think he could redshirt this year. Either way, his status is not known. He remains on this season’s list of active players in case he does appear. If he doesn’t ever play in 2023, he will be removed to indicate he didn’t appear.

2023 TEAM Projection: +5.76, Current +5.90

Not unlike last season, the TEAM score is very close to the preseason projection despite there being a wide variance in each player’s performance compared to estimate. Some do better, some do worse, and some do about as expected. In the end, this evens out somehow.

A team that is about +5.76 is expected to earn a 4-seed. At 16-3, KU is projected to be a 2-seed at this point. By winning most of its close games, KU has gotten itself a better chance at advancing through the bracket. But it still has to continue to win more close games than it loses.

Comparing M.J. Rice to Other Wings as Freshmen

After losses, questions from the KU fanbase arise. Players buried on the bench seem like a possible rescue for the current challenges the team is facing.

M.J. Rice came in as one of KU’s more highly-touted players. As an athletic wing with a strong ranking and build, he was expected to produce and maybe even start this season. There have been numerous freshmen wings to start in the Self-era. Brandon Rush, Xavier Henry, Ben McLemore, Andrew Wiggins, Wayne Selden, Kelly Oubre, Josh Jackson, Quentin Grimes, and, (even this season) Gradey Dick to name a few. Further names of freshmen wings to get quality playing time (and a few starts along the way) include Josh Selby, Svi Mykhailiuk, Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, and Christian Braun. While some of these guys came in more highly-touted (and proved to be legitimate pro-prospects), others were not better recruits. Based on incoming hype alone, he is somewhere in the middle of these names.

Injuries, illnesses, and inconsistency have held him back. He’s had 4 straight DNP’s, played under than 5 minutes all conference season, and hasn’t played a noticeable amount of time in any game since Harvard. For the season he has appeared in 11 games, but he has shown flashes of skill.

Against Texas Southern, a game in which an injured Kevin McCullar did not appear, Rice logged a season-high 21.5 minutes. He scored 19 points on efficient shooting. He graded out as KU’s second-best player that night, producing an above-bubble value-score of +7.05. This is the best single performance of any KU bench-player this season, and even scored better than K.J. Adams’ best game.

Aside from this game, he’s been less-than-stellar. Of the other 10 he’s appeared in, only against Harvard has he produced positive value. And while the value-score is opponent-adjusted, it should be noted that his worst games have came against the best competition as he has produced -16.83 points of value in 39.5 minutes against Power 6 foes. He hasn’t proven he can perform against top-tier quality, and since that is all that is left on KU’s schedule, one can understand why he isn’t currently in the rotation.

Still, its not like KU has a wide range of wings on its bench. The team effectively starts 4 wings alongside PG Dejuan Harris (for this exercise I’ll use the term “wing” to refer to players who are primarily non-post scorers, who will shoot at least an occasional 3, yet are not a primary ball-handling type. Defensively, wings are better perimeter defenders, which differentiates them from post-men). KU’s bench, on the other hand, has 2 small PG/CG-types (Pettiford, Yesufu) and 4 “bigs” or “5-men” (Ejiofor, Clemence, Udeh, Martin). None of these would traditionally be considered wings, although each of these six players has unique skill sets from one another. The only other bench player that could be considered a wing is Kyle Cuffe, who has been injured since the second game and thus not relevant to our current discussion.

The point is, this team starts all of the wings it plays. While the team has had success doing so, when it goes to the bench, the makeup of the lineup changes. When Pettiford and/or Yesufu come in, KU will play 2 (or 3) PG/CG types. Smaller, quicker, and with better ball-handling, these players give up size and are better scorers in the full-court rather than half-court. Defensively, these smaller guards tend to have trouble rebounding and contesting against the shots of taller opponents.

Whenever a backup 5 replaces Adams (namely Ejiofor or Clemence recently), KU loses an excellent wing defender (Adams) and gains a better rebounder who has trouble switching onto the opponents’ best guards and wings. The point is, KU is best suited to play its starting 5. Not only is the team better, the defensive strategy (liberal amounts of switches) is best suited for guys who are mobile and range from 6’6 – 6’8. Additionally, the offensive strategy of playing a spaced-out high-ball-screen system, utilizing a 5-man who can handle it well, doesn’t work as well with a substitute 5 who cannot handle it or an off-guard who isn’t able to make jump shots.

Rice’s skillset fits in nicely with what the team’s strategy is. Having him spell Kevin McCullar means you don’t give up any size at the off-guard position. Switching most screens still makes sense. Having him fill in for a Gradey Dick or Jalen Wilson means you have someone who has clear offensive potential…someone who can score. Playing alongside a Harris means he will get good looks.

One suggestion is that he would perform better if he could get into a rhythm. His semi-recent spot minutes have not been impressive, to be sure. But when he did play extended runs, such as his 18 minutes against NDSU or 21 against TSU, he scored 10 and 19 points.

Below is a table of KU wings in their freshmen years. What we want to do is compare Rice to these other names through about the same point in the season. As Rice has played 96 minutes, we will attempt to break-down these other freshmen wings at this point in their careers in terms of minutes played. It won’t be perfect, but we should be able to get value-scores of other wings.

The filter was to count the first 100 minutes of a player’s freshman season, with the difference being that we are counting whole-games worth of statistical value. The percentage of minutes show a variety of playing time by individual, with Ben McLemore playing the most of anyone. The PPG_AB and Per100 in gray show how well that player was doing through his first 100 minutes of court time. The last two blue columns show that player’s entire season.

The player who got off to the best start was Andrew Wiggins, and generally players who got off to good starts continued that momentum, albeit it with reversion to the mean. There were a few notable players who improved after sluggish starts, with Kelly Oubre and Josh Jackson being notables. Ochai Agbaji, although he showed potential, was a negative-value player when he first burned the redshirt. However, immediately following his first 112 minutes in 6 games played, he had his best outing against Texas. Thus, perhaps his development is overstated here. Conversely, Kelly Oubre’s slow start is somewhat masked by the fact his final game in the sequence was his best to that point. He hardly played at first, but slowly became a very solid player. His development throughout the course of the season was significant.

Where does this leave us with M.J.? Through roughly 100 minutes played, he is behind each of these names in terms of minutes played and per-possession value. On total value, his closest comps for the whole season are Grimes and Svi, neither of whom were any good in their freshman campaigns. In terms of minutes played, he is getting similar time as Braun or Oubre did. Both of these improved to become positive-value players, indicating that there is still hope for a turnaround. But perhaps his closest comps are players not on this list. Wings that primarily sat as freshmen; players such as Travis Releford, Lagerald Vick, Brannen Greene, Andrew White, or Tristan Enaruna.

The biggest debate about M.J is one that is unanswerable. We don’t know how he’s doing in practice, and speculation about him being better than the team’s current crop of reserves is just that. When he’s played well, he’s certainly shown a dimension that guys like Pettiford or Yesufu don’t have, namely one that fits in well on the wing (BP and JY should still get minutes, especially when Harris needs a break). But when he’s been bad, well, it could cost you a game in an ultra-competitive Big 12.

Kansas 82, Kansas State 83

Jalen Wilson carried the Jayhawks all game, and in doing so posted the team’s best performance of the season. Not only did he score 38 points on efficient offense, he did so by playing solid defense throughout all 45 minutes of game time.

Dejuan Harris was KU’s second-best player. Although he only scored 3 points, he produced points thanks to 11 value assists and played solid defense on K-State’s second-best player and opposing PG. Conversely, poor defensive outings by Gradey Dick and K.J. Adams contributed to negative value-games on their ledgers, despite them scoring 16 and 17 points respectively.

This was the bench’s 7th-straight negative-value outing.