Tag: 2023

Kansas 94, Pittsburg State 63

The 2022 National Champions looked sluggish to start, falling behind as much as 15, midway through the first half. However, the Hawks quickly turned it around and ran away from the Gorillas to win 94-63 in the team’s only televised exhibition matchup. The games will start to count for real on Monday when the Omaha Mavericks come to visit. In terms of most to least valuable, here is how the Jayhawks graded out against Pitt St.

Kevin McCullar +8.90

The Texas Tech transfer finished with 13 points, but it was his defense which stood out. He only allowed 1 point, while winning 11 possessions because of a steal, rebound, block, or forced turnover. While he may have benefited from his man missing an open shot here or there, it’s clear he is a legitimate plus defender who will almost certainly grade out as the team’s best over the course of a 31+ game schedule. He will do best getting his points in transition, although he can make the occasional 3.

Gradey Dick +6.01

The 5-star frosh started slowly, but got into the action with a backdoor cut for a dunk. From there his full offensive game was on display. Ripping open 3’s with a ridiculously quick and pure jumper. Running the floor. Finding the open man. Hustling to get tip-ins. Cutting backdoor and finishing off a reverse while drawing contact. All-in-all he had 20 points on 9 FGA’s. The question will be his defense. He doesn’t have to be an all-conference player on the defensive end to add value, but will he do enough to ensure that teams don’t pick on him at that end. Either way, he has earned a starting nod.

Zuby Ejiofor +3.97

Despite playing a shade under 10 minutes, Ejiofor finished with 8 points and 4 rebounds. He was KU’s best interior player in this game, showing how he can compliment a team with skilled wings and guards who know how to find the open man. Like any freshman, up and down games are to be expected. But he appears to be ahead of schedule in his development.

Ernest Udeh +2.18

The other freshman big man got the start, but played sparingly afterwards. He finished with 4 points and 3 boards while not giving anything up on the other end. Udeh’s size and activity will net him minutes this season, but it is apparent that certain defensive matchups will be trouble.

Jalen Wilson +1.66

Jalen went for 23 and 4. He started slow but ended up having a decently efficient game in the end. Defensively, his second half was much cleaner than the first period. Wilson is clearly Kansas’s best iso-scorer, given his ability to put the ball on the deck and score through contact. Since he will be KU’s number one option, he will have to learn to adapt to different defensive schemes he will face this season.

Kyle Cuffe +0.59

Cuffe’s score is due to his defensive effort in not allowing a point. He played 12 minutes, seemed to rotate well, and put some pressure on in-bounds plays to force turnovers. On offense, he looked raw but did have a nice finish in transition. Cuffe’s minutes will increase if he can take care of the ball and win hustle plays.

Dillon Wilhite -0.10

The redshirt freshman walk-on only saw 41 seconds and a few moments of action. The entry pass to him was deflected out of bounds, hence a score near 0.

Zach Clemence -0.48

Clemence’s unadjusted score was positive, but when you add the team factor of a D-2 school in, it becomes below bubble. But don’t less this distract from the nice game Zach had. He finished with an efficient 7 points and 4 rebounds in 14 minutes. He did give up a few 3-pointers on defense, which might have partially been due to bad luck (other Kansas players gave up open looks that weren’t hit…as the season goes on this luck factor will balance out).

Bobby Pettiford -0.98

Like Clemence, Pettiford did some nice things despite the negative score. He was quick and active, creating scoring opportunities for teammates and pressuring at the point while on defense. Pettiford probably won’t ever be a “scoring guard,” but if he can get out in transition, he will provide more on that end than in the half-court.

Michael Jankovich -1.33

Jank had a 3 and an assist in six-and-a-half minutes of play, but also gave up a 3 on defense. He played well, but probably won’t see much action despite his lethal ability to shoot.

Dejuan Harris -3.21

The starting PG did some things well. He finished with 10 assists to 3 turnovers, and added 6 points. He also had some steals and pressured the ball well at times. Like others, his negative score is due to the adjustment factor, as his unadjusted score was slightly positive. The concern this season with Juan is the same as it has been in the past. He does his PG duties well, but does he score enough and “play big” enough on defense to add value? KU switches a bunch, and at times he will lose his man and give up a cheap basket. Let’s put it this way. If Harris doesn’t make a ton of jumpers, he can’t be giving up decent 3-point looks to the opposing guards he faces.

K.J. Adams -4.34

The sophomore forward not only started the game, he also played a decent chunk as the “5” man. He scored 4 points with 2 assists, and had the highest +/- on the team with a +31. So how was his value score so low? Well, he had some sloppy turnovers, but the biggest reason was he didn’t rebound. In 21 minutes, he had 1 rebound for the whole game. Adams is a possible plus-defender with the ability to be a very good defender, but he has to rebound the ball.

Joe Yesufu -11.14 It’s tough to overstate how bad of a game Yesufu had. He forced up numerous bad shots, lost his man in defensive rotations, and while playing off the ball didn’t contribute anything in terms of assists. It’s clear the team wants him to be aggressive, but there is a line between aggressiveness and poor shot selection.

A look ahead to the Regular Season

You can learn a lot in exhibition games, even if the level of competition isn’t equivalent to what the team will be facing for the bulk of the season. Having watched the game, here’s what I expect in terms of rotations, playing time, etc. moving forward. Also, keep in mind that Kansas will have additional “buy games” which should allow them additional possessions to experiment with lineups before conference play starts.

Starters:

Given how the team looked, expect the starting 5 to look like this on Monday. Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, Adams. This puts Adams as the starting 5, which isn’t ideal. As indicated above, Adams did worse than the other three big men in terms of player value, even though his box score +/- was the team’s best. But like Pitt State, Omaha won’t have a ton of size. I expect the coaches to go with the experience of K.J. for game one.

Gradey Dick’s performance was too good to ignore. His presence on the court should open up driving lanes for others like Wilson and McCullar. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t the worst on the team either. He deserves to start, but even if he doesn’t start, he will play serious minutes. The other three are definite starters.

Rotation:

In addition to the starters, the rotation will consist of Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Udeh, and one of either Cuffe/Yesufu/Rice.

Starting with Pettiford, who looked great with the ball in his hands in the exhibition. It’s clear from the rotations that the staff wants to play either Harris or Pettiford as PG. One of these two will be in the game, but rarely will they play together. In fact, against Pitt State, the two played a combined 40 minutes and 45 seconds, with the only overlap coming at the end of the 1st half. Other than that, it was one or the other at PG.

Next comes the three big men. There’s a chance one of these three starts over K.J. on Monday. Either way, each will get time at the “5” spot. Additionally, KU looked okay with both Clemence and Ejiofor on the floor together. Given Clemence’s ability to shoot, playing these two together doesn’t hurt the team’s spacing on offense. It would be defense that would be the concern. It will be interesting to see what Coach Roberts does.

The last question, and the one that seems the least clear, is the question of the reserve off-ball guards/wings. Joe Yesufu didn’t play any point guard against Pitt State, and all signs seem to indicate that the coaches see him as a scoring guard and not a point. However, he didn’t play great on either end in this role. Looking at his stats last year, Joe was best with the ball in his hands, playing point. But it’s clear that the coaches are happy with Harris/Pettiford at this position, hence the reason to shift Joe to the off-guard spot.

Kyle Cuffe likewise had some struggles, but did look a little sharper than Yesufu. And last, how serious is the injury to M.J. Rice? He will seemingly be out for some time, but is this a few weeks, a month, or longer? In the exhibition, both Cuffe and Yesufu played quite a bit on the court together. I think the reason for this was that Self wanted to see which one he liked better. To me this was Cuffe, but I wasn’t super-impressed by him either.

Ultimately, the main rotation will consist of:

PG: Harris / Pettiford

Wing: McCullar / Yesufu

Wing: Dick / Cuffe

4: Wilson / Adams

5: Udeh / Clemence / Ejiofor

With Clemence and Adams having the potential to play either the 4 or 5, and the wings being interdependent. Also, McCullar and/or Dick could play the “4,” it really is fluid aside from the PG and post positions.

Projected minutes is another way to do it. This will be for roughly the first 5 games, understanding that this is flexible based on game score and matchups.

Harris: 26

McCullar: 30

Wilson: 30

Dick: 28

Adams: 15

Pettiford: 14

Clemence: 14

Udeh: 13

Ejiofor: 13

Cuffe: 10

Yesufu: 7

The minutes distro between Harris/Pettiford will be 40 or very close to it. The minutes distro between Udeh/Clemence/Ejiofor will be close to 40, with Adams playing some 5 at times but Zach playing some 4 at times as well. The off-guards/wings will be 120, so 120 between the likes of Adams, Wilson, Dick, McCullar, Yesufu, and Cuffe.

A Deep Dive – Jalen Wilson

Without a doubt, KU’s biggest off-season win was the announced return of Jalen Wilson. The incoming redshirt junior has started 53 games in his career, the bulk of his two full seasons as a healthy Jayhawk. But how good can he be this season? Let’s try and find out.

Let’s first look at Jalen’s per game stats since coming to Lawrence.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jalen-wilson-1.html

After being injured for nearly the entire 2020 season, Wilson emerged as KU’s best scorer to begin his redshirt freshman campaign in the 2021 season. He averaged 15.1 PPG over his first 10 games that year. And while he cooled off some, he finished 2021 as KU’s third-leading scorer and leading rebounder. Coming into 2022, Wilson was expected to pick up where he left off. But after poor off-court choices and a suspension to start the season, Wilson started slow, only reaching double-figures in scoring in his 7th game of the season (team’s 10th game). But he picked it up, finishing the season with double-figure scoring games in 22 of his 37 games played. In the NCAA Tourney, he posted double-figures in 5 of the 6 games.

Where Wilson has shown strength is in isolation offense. A great example came against Providence in the Sweet 16. When KU needed a basket after giving up the lead, they went to Wilson. See 1:06:40 of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ4dOprMnHI&t=2746s

Wilson got a good matchup and exploited it, but this has been his m.o. while at Kansas. This play is memorable because it came at a big moment, but Wilson has had this ability since he got to Kansas.

One area Wilson improved was on-ball defense. A few minutes after his and-1, he made this play against a Providence guard. See 1:08:53 in video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ4dOprMnHI&t=2746s

A season prior, or even earlier in the year, Wilson would have gotten beat. Not only does he keep his man in front, he also makes the steal. Again, this was against one of Providence’s guards, not a plodding forward. Just looking at the official stats, we see that Wilson doubled his steal output from 2021 to 2022. This tells some of the story regarding his defensive improvement. But there is more here.

Value Stats

First, we will compare Wilson’s offensive stats from 2021 to 2022.

The columns can be understood thusly. Off Eff is Wilson’s offensive efficiency. He was more efficient in 2022. PtsAF/gm is Points Accounted for per game. This takes into account all points scored and assisted, while recognizing the added value of an unassisted basket vs. a basket the player was assisted on. In 2021 Wilson produced more points per game than in 2022. TS% is a version of true shooting percentage, with Wilson shooting better overall in 2022. Both ShotFreq and Impact look at the player’s usage, with 20% being an average usage. The team needed more offense from Wilson during his freshman season than they did during his sophomore campaign. The final number tells the whole story. Wilson’s offensive value was steady between seasons. He produced about 1 point per game offensively above that of a bubble-level player. He was more efficient with less volume in 2022 when compared to 2021.

Looking at defense, we see that Wilson’s Def Eff (defensive efficiency) improved immensely. The next columns tell us why. In 2021 he gave up 13.5 points per 60 possession while on defense, a number which improved to 11.0 points per 60 in 2022. The possession winner columns, PW/gm and PW/60, indicate that his rebounding/steal/forced turnover numbers were basically flat. The last column shows that Wilson went from a negative-value defender to a solidly positive-value one. Such a jump is rare.

This table combines the offensive and defensive value scores into one number.

2023 Projections

Without a doubt, this season Jalen will again be asked to take on a larger scoring load. Bart Torvik projects him to average 16.0 PPG. Given an increase in usage, his offensive value should jump as long as he can remain somewhat efficient. We project him to be +1.45 on offense, which would be about a 1/2-point increase. This is a conservative estimate which acknowledges that opponents will focus on stopping him more now that he is the primary threat on offense.

For defense, we project him to be +1.34. This is essentially the same as last season. It’s clear that he made gains defensively, primarily in the areas of lateral quickness and on-ball defense. For him to add more defensive value this season would require additional improvements on defense. But he is already a good rebounder. Perhaps in steals or forced turnovers? Given his position, this is unlikely.

Another consideration is that Wilson’s defense might take a step back as he takes on more of a scoring load. This isn’t uncommon to see. It happened to Sherron Collins in his junior season (2009) and Devon Dotson in his sophomore season (2020). As a player expends more energy on the offensive end, he has less to give on defense.

At +2.79, Jalen Wilson’s projected PPG AB +/- is +0.48 from 2022 and +2.15 from 2021. This isn’t a huge leap from last season, but it’s still a decent-size jump from his freshman year. Bill Self said that Wilson needed to have an all-American type year for Kansas to be as successful as it wants to be, which we can take to mean winning the conference and earning a top 2 seed in order to have decent odds at making a Final Four run. We certainly agree. The play of Jalen Wilson will determine a lot with regards to how Kansas does this year.

A Deep Dive – Dejuan Harris

At Big 12 Media Day, Coach Self was all praises on his Point Guard:

And he should be. Harris is the type of kid who plays the game hard, never complains, is a great teammate, and from all appearances seems like the model player off the court. And as he comes into his third year as a Jayhawk player (fourth year in the program), he is positioned to be one of the leaders on the team in the 2023 season.

On KU Twitter and the Message Boards, Harris is generally seen as a positive contributor, however there are the occasional unpopular types who will point out his stats. The Harris-haters are derided. But are they completely wrong? For instance, take a look at his per game stats for 2022.

Source

Harris isn’t a scorer, of that people agree. His assist total is solid, but then again, he is a PG. The A/TO ratio of is 2.8 is very good. He also gets some steals. On the negative side, his rebounding is quite low. And his shooting could improve. But stats are meaningless without context. The question is less, is Dejuan Harris good, and more, how should we judge his skill? Against all D-1 college basketball? Or against KU-level point guards?  Let’s first compare his stats to other KU point guards from their sophomore years.

This list contains the sophomore-year stats of all players in the Self-era who were the primary starting PG for their team in at least one season. We want to compare Harris as the starting PG against other starters. For this reason, guys like Mario Chalmers (he played some point, but was never the primary starter at that position) and Niko Roberts (never started) are left off, and guys like Elijah Johnson (who was an off-guard most of his career until he became the PG as a senior) are included.

The list is sorted by highest PPG total. Looking at the comparison, we see Harris below everyone except Elijah Johnson, who played 13.7 MPG on a loaded 2011 team and was behind 4 other guard-types. Harris has relatively good numbers when it comes to ball-handling stats (assists, turnovers) and steals. His rebounding and shot attempt numbers don’t look great.

But what about his defense? Unlike traditional stats, Charting the Hawks has the ability to judge defensive skill-level more robustly, and not just steals, fouls, rebounds, and blocks. Let’s take a look at these 10 player-seasons from the defensive side of the ball.

note that Robinson’s junior year is used here, as his sophomore year isn’t fully charted

Some explanation here is helpful. This list is sorted by Pa/p or Per60 columns, with lowest being better. Pa/p stands for Points Against per Possession. This shows how many points the player gave up per possession. This number is set to Per 60 possessions (about 35 minutes of game play) to make it more intuitive. Harris is third among his peers in the Self-era in this category.

The GDP/p refers to Good Defensive Plays per possession. This refers to the number of rebounds, steals, blocks, and non-steal forced turnovers a player contributes on the defensive end. We note that Harris is second-worst on this end, as his rebounding totals are below his peers.

Player value is best seen by putting everything together. All relevant offensive and defensive metrics makes the total player. Glancing above, we know that Harris is a solid defender and good ball-handler. These are two skills associated with point guards. However, we also see he doesn’t do much else, even when compared to other point guards.

Robinson’s sophomore year is used here, as we can estimate his value score using box score data for games not charted

The final table sorts these 10 players by PPG AB +/-. Harris comes in 9th of 10, only ahead of 2011 Elijah Johnson. The Per100 column is also useful, as it looks at player value from a per (100) possession basis to account for playing time differences. Here Harris grades out slightly higher than 2013 Naadir Tharpe.

Breaking down Harris further, we see his offense only bettered that of 2019 Marcus Garrett. His defense came in around average, and this was in large part due to his rebounding. Had he rebounded at a rate of Devon Dotson (3.5 DRPG), he would have been the second-best defender on this list and had a PPG AB +/- value score that was positive.

The irony of Harris is this. When you examine “pure” point guard skills such as defensive pressure, steals, forced turnovers, ball-handling, assists, turnovers, and free throw shooting; Harris is solid and one of the best. But when you add the other elements of basketball not always associated with PG’s—such as scoring volume and rebounding—Harris’s value diminishes. Point guards don’t have to rebound much, but they have to get enough boards. And they don’t have to lead the team in scoring, but they still have to be a capable enough option that it forces other teams to guard them.

Last, the final table looks at the seasons all starting point guards have had since 2007. This is different in that it compares PG’s of different classes—freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior.

Value produced by KU starting PG’s from 2007-2022

Here we see Harris in last. The WAR is Wins Above Replacement, with replacement-level equaling the average D-1 player. This is estimating that Harris gave KU an extra 0.62 wins above the average D-1 player getting his minutes. So even if Harris has been at the bottom of starting point guards in the Self-era, he can still add value.

Looking ahead to 2023:

For the upcoming season, we expect Harris to improve on his 2022 campaign. College players tend to improve season-to-season. As Harris plays a larger role, expect his scoring to improve. But we also want to see gains on his rebounding numbers. There were multiple times when he allowed an offensive rebound, which gave the opponent a good-look at a score (see 3:42 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIMOY6CoQKI Harris drifts away from his man instead of blocking out and watches his man tip the ball out for an open 3). By just adding a little more physicality to his game, he can add a rebound per game or so which will lift his value alongside other improvements to his game.

Charting the Hawks has Dejuan Harris’s 2023 season with a -0.28 projected PPGAB. But this is merely an objective estimate using trends of player improvement. Players improve by an average of around half a point per game per season. But some improve more than this, while some actually decline in value. Don’t be surprised if Harris makes a big leap from sophomore to junior year.

2023 Preview

Today KenPom released his preseason rankings for the 2023 basketball season. In it, KU is 8th in the country and 3rd in the conference. By his estimate, KU should go 20-9 in its scheduled games (it still has 2 games against unknown opponents in the Bahamas Tournament). The AP also released its top 25, having KU at 5.

Charting the Hawks will also attempt to evaluate KU’s true ranking by looking at this year’s roster, and then build up to a team prediction based on the sum of the parts.

Returning Players:

Dejuan Harris (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.28

Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +2.79

Joseph Yesufu (Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35

K.J. Adams (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.28

Bobby Pettiford (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.59

Zach Clemence (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.47

Michael Jankovich (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.36

Kansas has 7 returnees, with Harris and Wilson also returning as starters. Of these, 6 are rotation (non-walk-on) players. The projections shown here expect about a 0.50 PPG increase per player compared to last season, with minutes-played estimates having a factor. Jalen Wilson is expected to be KU’s best player, and has the best potential of any Jayhawk to finish with All-American honors. Coach Self hit the nail on the head when he stated that for this team to reach its potential, it needs Jalen to play ta an All-American level. Normally a score of +4.50 or even +5.00 is All-American. Wilson has the best chance of any Jayhawk to get there, but history says we shouldn’t expect this. What Wilson has going for him is that he will get a lot more opportunities to score with no McCormack, Agbaji, or Martin to generate offense through. This could boost his value score above his projected number.

Incoming Transfers:

Kevin McCullar (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.94

Cam Martin (Rs Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.31

McCullar’s projection is taken using box-score stats from his previous time at Texas Tech, with the caveat that his defensive plays weren’t charted. The tape would indicate he is a superb defender, with the ability to score at times. He won’t give up easy baskets, and should be an anchor on that end.

Incoming Freshmen:

Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35

Gradey Dick (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.57

M.J. Rice (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.69

Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.18

Ernest Udeh (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.12

Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53

Dillon Wilhite (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53

With freshmen, the projections are tough. The only real framework is their rankings in the class as well as any hype around them. What we use is historic freshman value based upon incoming class rank. This isn’t a perfect way to do it of course, but higher-ranked players do tend to perform better. For Gradey Dick, his high incoming ranking has him projected to have player value somewhere between the freshman seasons of Kelly Oubre 2015 or Perry Ellis 2013. M.J. Rice is somewhere around Ochai Agbaji 2019. Udeh compares to Cole Aldrich 2008 or Markieff Morris 2009. Ejiofor would be closest to Carlton Bragg 2016. Again, these are broad estimates that are meant to incorporate the possibility of over or underachievement.

The TEAM ranking then attempts to take in these player numbers and combine them in a way which recognizes minute distribution. We know Wilson, Harris, and McCullar should get starters’ minutes. There is much to be determined for the 5-spot, as well as who among the other guards and wings can win minutes. The team has a lot of depth.

The number for the team that was calculated is +5.76. This would put KU at around a 4-seed should it win and lose the expected number of games a team of such strength might. While this may seem a bit bearish, remember that losing Agbaji, McCormack, and Martin to graduation was tough. And losing Braun to the draft was the biggest lost in terms of expectation; him not returning drops the 2023 team down a couple seed-lines.

Worst Case, Best Case, Medium Case

Within reason, the worst case scenario would be for Kansas to struggle due to lack of outside shooting and experience. Teams would force the Hawks to knock down shots; forcing guys like Wilson (26.3%), Harris (32.3%), Yesufu (26.2%), Clemence (27.3%), and McCullar (31.1%) to hit open 3’s (3-point percentage from 2022). Another struggle could be the abundance of depth without much differentiation. The 5-spot is still up for grabs, and the D-1 experience at this position is lacking to say the least. Either freshman big has the athleticism, but can either anchor inside in his first year? Clemence showed some talent last year, but played 10+ minutes in a game only twice the entire season. Cam Martin did get a year of practice to adjust to the speed and talent of this level, but how much of his D-2 success can lever up? It may be that K.J. Adams starts the season at the “5,” at least in the games before KU faces true low-post skill.

The point guard position is also another question. Dejuan Harris is loved by fans, but he hasn’t produced the numbers to match this affection. He will need to be a bigger scorer than he was last year. He scored at a rate below half of what the team did as a whole last year. His offensive value from scoring was -4.11 points below bubble per 100 possessions, easily the worst of the top 8 guys in the rotation. While we expect improvement, it would have to be monumental for Harris to become a top 2 or 3 scorer (as Bart Torvik projects). That kind of leap is rare. Moving on to Yesufu and Pettiford; neither were suitable backups last season. In fact, each was even worse than Harris on offense, along with being subpar defenders. Worst case scenario: KU gets a middling-seed (6 or worse) and gets bounced in the First Round.

Switching gears to a reasonable best-case scenario, Kansas finds a nice rotation of 8-9 guys which balance to fill each position nicely. Wilson has an all-American type year, and bolstered by strong defense, the Jayhawks go on to win 25 or so games and get a top-2 seed in the Tournament. From there, a Final Four run is possible, with a very low chance at cutting down the nets in April. Final Four is a good reasonable goal for the 2023 team.

The medium scenario places KU at about a 4-seed. They will compete with the top teams in the Big 12 and maybe even share the title. The freshmen show potential but also reminders of their age. Jalen has a good but not elite year, and has to carry the team for much of the way. The defense is solid but poor outside shooting occasionally plagues them. A second-weekend NCAA Tournament is within expectation, but after that they should be underdogs in the later rounds barring massive upsets.

Wrapping up Last Season

Finally, we look back at last season’s projections. For a TEAM score, we projected +9.50, which was basically matched at +9.46 following the Big 12 Tournament. Thanks to an outstanding 6-game run in the NCAA Tourney, KU finished at +10.21 to exceed expectations and win the National Championship.

But while the TEAM projection was quite accurate, how the team got there was not. Ochai Agbaji (+4.39) and Christian Braun (+3.91) exceeded their low pre-season estimates. Meanwhile, Remy Martin (+1.06) and David McCormack (+1.35) did not achieve what they had been expected to. Jalen Wilson (+2.31) was another bright spot, whereas Joseph Yesufu (-1.06) was very disappointing as an incoming transfer.