Tag: 2023

Hypothetical Lineup

Sometimes KU fans will produce hypothetical lineups, combining players from different eras to imagine how good such a team might be. For fun, here’s one:

PG – 1998 Ryan Robertson

SG – 2012 Elijah Johnson

SF – 2000 Kenny Gregory

PF – 2003 Nick Collison

C – 2017 Landen Lucas

This group of 5 features three juniors and two seniors, all of whom started and played significant minutes during their respective seasons. It includes a player (Nick Collison) who averaged 18.5 PPG and 10.0 RPG, as well as a secondary scoring option (Kenny Gregory) who went for 12.8 and 4.4. Its role players are also capable in their positions. This isn’t a bad lineup by any means. It would win the conference most years and likely be anywhere from a 1 to a 3-seed.

The reason this set of players was chosen is that it best corresponds to the 2023 starting lineup through 20 games. Jalen Wilson is having a season that is as good as Nick Collison’s 2003 season. Gradey Dick has been about as good as a junior Kenny Gregory. Harris’ season best compares to Elijah Johnson’s junior campaign, Adams to Lucas, and McCullar to Robertson. There are certainly stylistic differences between these lineups, but looking purely at player-value, they are nearly identical.

The 2023 team’s starters aren’t the problem. There have been recent slumps—namely from Harris and Adams—but in looking at the whole picture the starting 5 has been solid. Now, let’s look at some other names.

PF – 2006 Christian Moody

PF – 2015 Jamari Traylor

SF – 1997 Nick Bradford

PG – 2003 Jeff Hawkins

PF – 2018 Mitch Lightfoot

SG – 2001 Mario Kinsey

These six names represent the bench for the hypothetical team, and equate to the 2023 bench as follows. Ejiofor equates to (Sr.) Moody, Udeh to (Jr.) Traylor, Rice to (Fr.) Bradford, Yesufu to (Fr.) Hawkins, Clemence to (So.) Lightfoot, and Pettiford to (Fr.) Kinsey. This set of names doesn’t represent a ton of shooting or offensive skill. Some of these guys who developed into better players later in their careers (Lightfoot, Bradford) are underclassmen in this hypothetical roster.

If this hypothetical team existed, then the first subs off the bench would likely be Moody or Traylor for Lucas and Bradford or Hawkins for either Gregory/Johnson/Robertson. Such substitutions would hurt the team, which would have fewer scoring options and be harmed on the defensive end. The same thing is happening when the 2023 team goes to its bench.

Kansas 69, Baylor 75

Positives: Kevin McCullar had KU’s best game, thanks to a strong defensive effort. While he was only 3-9 from the floor, his 8-8 from the FT line got him to 14 points. He also added 12 rebounds (10 defensive) on a night where Kansas struggled to finish possessions on the defensive end. Gradey Dick had his best game since Indiana despite battling first half foul trouble. Jalen Wilson had another solid offensive game. His efficiency of late has been a consistent bright spot for the team. M.J. Rice finished with 2 points and 4 value rebounds.

Negatives: Dejuan Harris had his second-consecutive all-around very poor game. He scored 2 points on 1-5 shooting and allowed 16 points to the Baylor guards. K.J. Adams was also inefficient on offense while giving up too many points on defense. With only 1 defensive rebound, this was his 6th conference game (out of 8) in which he has failed to secure at least 3 defensive boards. He is leaving value on the floor by not coming up with loose balls. Ernest Udeh only played a few minutes, but a defensive blunder led to an open 3. Bobby Pettiford missed his only shot attempt and allowed a basket. Joe Yesufu didn’t score, but did come up with some nice hustle plays (1 steal, 3 defensive rebounds). Unfortunately, in the first half he also fumbled a potential defensive board that Baylor converted into points.

The TEAM had a positive-value game (meaning they performed better than a bubble-level team would be expected to), and this was with Self getting his 3rd technical of the season and gifting Baylor 2 points. The starters were collectively positive with the bench giving away value.

Bench Update

The Bench continues to get worse. It is now projected to provide -3.39 WAR (given a 36-game schedule), which is nearly 1.50 WAR worse than the current-worse bench in the Self-era (which was his first season). If anyone, anyone at all, could provide solid minutes, this problem would be drastically reduced. Self needs about 40 minutes per game off his bench. If one guy could provide 20 consistent minutes around 0.00 value (think Christian Braun as a freshman), then the additional 20 could be spot-minutes. Self wouldn’t have to play multiple negative-value players together that often and could rotate this hypothetical 6th man around while his starters each got a break.

Should Michael Jankovich get a shot? He can’t defend, but then again it isn’t like the others bench guards/wings play great defense. At the very least he’d be a surprise for a possession or two.

For what it’s worth, Self has basically given up on his bench.

Money quote:

“I think what we’ve got to do is get our starting five playing better,” he said after Saturday’s loss. “Our bench isn’t such where they’re going to make a huge difference in us winning or not winning. The way they can contribute the most is defending, not turning it over, getting confidence from doing the things that don’t show up in the stat sheet and then they’ll get more confidence moving forward.”

Losing by 23 is not on the reserves who only played 41 combined minutes out of 200, this much is true. Still, it would be nice if the reserves could actually defend. They really aren’t doing that well. But KU’s success is going to be determined by whether or not the starting 5 plays well. Unless KU fouls out over half of its starters, like it did at Kansas State, crunch-time will feature KU’s best lineup against the opponent’s best. Most of the time, KU’s will be better.

Comparing the 2023 team to Preseason Expectations

For reference, at this point of the season, KU is 16-3 and about to play at Baylor. The season is about half-way done. Let’s look at each player compared to his preseason expectation in the value stat Adj. PPG +/-.

Dejuan Harris (RS Jr.) Projection: -0.28, Current: +1.79

The biggest question on Harris was if he could score more this season. Until recently, the answer was a resounding “yes.” In the past three games, he’s only scored 3 points (on 1-13 FGs and 0-0 FTs). Even when accounting for this recent scoring slump, Harris has scored at a better rate than past seasons. Looking at Per100 value, his scoring value was at -4.47 in 2021 and at -4.09 last season. This has improved to -2.32 this season. Improvement is this area is key. Harris will continue to recover value through his consistently strong ball-handling and defense. It is his scoring that will determine how successful of a player he will be in his career.

Speaking of Harris’ defense, it’s on this side of the ball where he’s improved more. He’s always had quick hands and been good at anticipating the opponent’s movements, but now he has tightened up his coverage skills and allowed fewer easy baskets. Last season he added +2.24 points based on his defensive coverage per 100 possessions, this season it is +4.40. These are subtle differences when watching the game, but it really adds up over the course of a season.

Projecting out the rest of the season, we know that Harris will play and play a lot. The team is going to need some more scoring out of him. He was in double-digits in half of his first 16 games. If he can put up 10+ points every other game or so, it will be enough to keep him around +2.00 in value per game for the season.

Kevin McCullar (Sr.) Projection: +1.94, Current +0.17

Kevin McCullar was KU’s big off-season transfer portal veteran pickup, continuing in the same vein as Remy Martin, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and Isaiah Moss. However, he has underperformed expectations due to inconsistent play and poor offense. McCullar had a poor start through his first 7 games, but picked up his play with great outings against Seton Hall and Missouri. Since that time, he’s been up-and-down, with 2 poor performances coming against K-State and TCU. As he goes, so goes the team. His best games have come in KU wins, particularly KU blowouts. His worst games have coincided with games where the team has struggled.

McCullar’s offense was the question mark coming in, and if anything, it’s only grown larger. His shooting is up-and-down (currently down), and he’s turning it over more frequently than in years past. He’s best when he’s cutting off the ball and attacking the offensive glass. He needs to get comfortable in that role, and find his shot again, for him to be the type of player he was brought to Kansas to be.

Defensively, he’s been great at times. He gets steals, rebounds, and forces turnovers at a strong rate. At times he’s been out of position or gambled to the point of giving up an easy basket. In total, his defense is third-best on the team (this number fluctuates more than offense, by season’s end it could easily be second or first). He’s been about as good as advertised, although by tightening things up he could add even more for this team.

McCullar needs to find confidence with his shot and make decisive actions with the ball. He isn’t going to be the team’s best weapon on that end, but he’s good enough to be a neutral-value type player. The fact he’s losing -1.20 points per game against a bubble-level player is inexcusable.

Gradey Dick (Fr.) Projection: +1.57, Current +2.41

Freshmen are the toughest to predict. Recruiting rankings give us a rough idea as to how good the player is supposed to be, but sometimes it takes a while for it to click. KU’s had elite, 1-and-done types (like Andrew Wiggins). It has also seen top recruits struggle despite being given ample playing time and shot volume (Quentin Grimes, Bryce Thompson).

Gradey Dick has been one of the good ones. All of their games are slightly different, but KU has had a collection of very good freshmen wings over the years. Henry. McLemore. Wiggins. Oubre. Jackson. This season, Gradey Dick has continued that tradition. He’s the best shooter of the bunch, but he’s also improved his on-ball defense and rebounding. He also doesn’t force too much (low turnover numbers), keeping his value as high as possible.

Areas for improvement continue to be finishing at the rim and staying aware on defense. He’s been in a shooting slump recently, but that won’t last forever. He hustles and competes, therefore adding winning-plays even in games where he isn’t shooting efficiently. Still, his value this season will depend on how he shoots.

Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) Projection: +2.79, Current +6.04

One reason Jalen Wilson returned to Kansas this season was because he’d seen what other players (such as Ochai Agbaji) had done in returning. But Wilson has been even better than Agbaji was last season. Officially averaging 21.3 points per game, Wilson has been a solid defender and rebounder as well. He’s put together 17 positive-value games out of 19, which is a level of consistency not seen since Frank Mason in 2017.

It’s easy to say now, but Wilson’s projection was too conservative. Getting a higher volume of shots allows him to really extend his value-range, as he is a capable volume scorer. Without Wilson on this roster, KU would be a bubble-level team. He’s been that invaluable.

We mentioned that Kevin McCullar tends to play well in the games where KU plays well, conversely there is no correlation between Wilson’s best games and the team’s best games. If anything, Wilson does better in picking up his teammates during their worst performances. The key for Wilson is to not get stressed out or frustrated and try to do too much. The rest of the team will start to play well again at some point.

K.J. Adams (So.) Projection: +0.28, Current +1.30

Adams’ projection was based upon his athletic strengths and his defensive abilities. What was totally unexpected was his offensive skills. He averages double-figures on excellent efficiency, utilizing his skillset to play a small-ball 5 and take advantage of slower opponents. He is KU’s third-best offensive player so far this year, and closer to number two Gradey Dick than number four Dejuan Harris.

His defensive presence has been affected by his role as the team’s starting 5-man. He is still a solid perimeter defender for someone his size. He plays hard, draws charges, knocks the ball away, gets the occasional block, and so on. Yet he also gives up size inside and is a very weak rebounder. He is still a positive-value defender. If he could get his hands on a few more rebounds, this would quickly improve his defensive value.

Bobby Pettiford (So.) Projection: -0.59, Current -2.07

Getting now to reserves, Bobby Pettiford has the most minutes off the bench. He’s produced the most offense off the bench, shooting an efficient percentage while dishing out a fair amount of assists. However, the value he’s produced this season has been dreadful. He’s turning it over too much for a point-guard type, and despite his efficiency is not taking enough shots to add offensive value. On defense, he’s allowing 13.9 points per 60 possessions (the worst starter, Kevin McCullar is at 11.9 on far more minutes). Combined with his low numbers of rebounds and steals, his defense is -4.76 points per 100 possessions compared to a bubble-level player. His size is a factor, particularly on switches. He has not defended well, and I’m not sure why he checks in for late-game defensive possessions.

Joe Yesufu (Jr.) Projection: -0.35, Current -0.95

Yesufu has played a fair number of minutes as well backing up the starting wings. He’s shot about as poorly as last year. He did show some offensive skill in back-to-back 14-point outings against Tennessee and Texas Southern, but since that time he’s been bad. Injury may have something to do with this. On defense, he’s guarded better than others off the bench. He is adding a small amount of defensive value thanks to strong on-ball defense. He uses his strength and competes. He won’t get many steals or rebounds, but he is the best perimeter defender from the reserves.

Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) Projection: -0.18, Current -0.33

In the carousel which is the back-up 5-spot, Zuby Ejiofor has gotten the most minutes. He is performing about as well as expected. His defense outshines his raw offensive game at this point, and his per-100 rebounding value equates to +2.32 points above bubble. He has also done relatively well at disallowing his man easy baskets. He generally stays in a good position, staying between his man in the basket, which likely helps his rebounding numbers. He’d be my first choice off the bench going forward.

M.J. Rice (Fr.) Projection: +0.69, Current -1.11

Rice’s season has been plagued by ailments. His playing time has diminished significantly during conference play, and he hasn’t actually taken a shot since the Harvard game. He certainly exudes potential. Good size, athletic, skilled, etc. His defense has been the worse-half of his game, as he doesn’t do anything bubble-level on that end (coverage, pressure, or rebounding). For Rice to add value for this team, it will have to be in extended minutes and as an offensive weapon. Depending on how McCullar performs, it might be worth taking another shot with M.J.

Ernest Udeh (Fr.) Projection: +0.12, Current -0.51

Udeh is yet another under-performing bench player. His current value is also in limited playing time (less than 5 minutes per game KU has played). He does not play disciplined in the post, and will give up baskets to skilled and patient opponents. His offensive game is limited to plays at the rim. Yet, he too has potential. He was good enough in the preseason to earn a start against Pitt State in the exhibition game. He is excellent at finishing lob dunks and uses that frame to block shots. He had good outings early on, but against higher-level competition gets exposed.

Zach Clemence (So.) Projection: +0.47, Current -1.47

Clemence has greatly underperformed expectations. Last season, he was able to produce a season nearly at bubble-level thanks to good hustle plays (offensive rebounds, rim protection). With his capacity to shoot the ball, it seemed natural that he would play an important role on this year’s team. Things haven’t worked out that way. He’s been the worst per possession performer of any KU player to get rotation minutes (at least 10% of team’s available minutes). In fact, he is -14.6 per 100 possessions, which is nearly 7.0 points worse per 100 than Bobby Pettiford or M.J. Rice. If there is someone to drop from the rotation based on current in-game performance, at this point it has to be Zach.

Michael Jankovich (Sr.) Projection: -0.36, Current +0.38

Moving now to the part of the rotation that only gets spot minutes, or less than 10% of available court-time. Walk-on Michael Jankovich has added a small amount of value in his nearly 16 minutes. He’s scored 11 points on 4-5 shooting (3-4 from 3). While a few shots at the end of non-close games isn’t too relevant as projecting out future performance, he’s been KU’s best bench player. This raises the question, should he get a chance to play meaningful minutes? He can at least shoot.

Cam Martin (RS Sr.) Projection: -0.31, Current -0.71

Martin’s season got sidelined with a shoulder injury, but he came back to appear in 4 games and score 7 points. His offensive value per 100 is extremely good (thanks to limited minutes), whereas his defense is even worse (in part due to limited minutes). We really only have the eye-test to judge him on, as his stats aren’t over a large sample size. His best minutes came at Texas Tech, where he scored a basket, grabbed a rebound, and got a steal without any negative plays. It’s doubtful Martin plays more than 5 minutes in any one game. But we can’t write him off this team completely, either. He has offensive skills and a nice shot. Whether that can be utilized to help KU in the Big 12 or NCAA Tournament is another question.

Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.35, Current -2.00

Cuffe got injured in the team’s second game and has only played 6+ minutes. He isn’t schedule to return until February at the earliest, which may necessitate a medical redshirt. He was never expected to do much, but given how weak the bench has been, it would have been interesting to see if he could work himself into being a good defender at the very least.

Dillon Wilhite (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.53, Current -0.46

Dillon has played in 5 ½ minutes so far and has yet to take a shot (or record any stat save a foul). He has also given up 2 points. For a walk-on, this is typical.

Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) Projection: -0.53, Current DNP

Charlie has yet to play. He didn’t suit up earlier in the season, which caused me to think he was injured. Since he redshirted last season, I didn’t think he could redshirt this year. Either way, his status is not known. He remains on this season’s list of active players in case he does appear. If he doesn’t ever play in 2023, he will be removed to indicate he didn’t appear.

2023 TEAM Projection: +5.76, Current +5.90

Not unlike last season, the TEAM score is very close to the preseason projection despite there being a wide variance in each player’s performance compared to estimate. Some do better, some do worse, and some do about as expected. In the end, this evens out somehow.

A team that is about +5.76 is expected to earn a 4-seed. At 16-3, KU is projected to be a 2-seed at this point. By winning most of its close games, KU has gotten itself a better chance at advancing through the bracket. But it still has to continue to win more close games than it loses.

Comparing M.J. Rice to Other Wings as Freshmen

After losses, questions from the KU fanbase arise. Players buried on the bench seem like a possible rescue for the current challenges the team is facing.

M.J. Rice came in as one of KU’s more highly-touted players. As an athletic wing with a strong ranking and build, he was expected to produce and maybe even start this season. There have been numerous freshmen wings to start in the Self-era. Brandon Rush, Xavier Henry, Ben McLemore, Andrew Wiggins, Wayne Selden, Kelly Oubre, Josh Jackson, Quentin Grimes, and, (even this season) Gradey Dick to name a few. Further names of freshmen wings to get quality playing time (and a few starts along the way) include Josh Selby, Svi Mykhailiuk, Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, and Christian Braun. While some of these guys came in more highly-touted (and proved to be legitimate pro-prospects), others were not better recruits. Based on incoming hype alone, he is somewhere in the middle of these names.

Injuries, illnesses, and inconsistency have held him back. He’s had 4 straight DNP’s, played under than 5 minutes all conference season, and hasn’t played a noticeable amount of time in any game since Harvard. For the season he has appeared in 11 games, but he has shown flashes of skill.

Against Texas Southern, a game in which an injured Kevin McCullar did not appear, Rice logged a season-high 21.5 minutes. He scored 19 points on efficient shooting. He graded out as KU’s second-best player that night, producing an above-bubble value-score of +7.05. This is the best single performance of any KU bench-player this season, and even scored better than K.J. Adams’ best game.

Aside from this game, he’s been less-than-stellar. Of the other 10 he’s appeared in, only against Harvard has he produced positive value. And while the value-score is opponent-adjusted, it should be noted that his worst games have came against the best competition as he has produced -16.83 points of value in 39.5 minutes against Power 6 foes. He hasn’t proven he can perform against top-tier quality, and since that is all that is left on KU’s schedule, one can understand why he isn’t currently in the rotation.

Still, its not like KU has a wide range of wings on its bench. The team effectively starts 4 wings alongside PG Dejuan Harris (for this exercise I’ll use the term “wing” to refer to players who are primarily non-post scorers, who will shoot at least an occasional 3, yet are not a primary ball-handling type. Defensively, wings are better perimeter defenders, which differentiates them from post-men). KU’s bench, on the other hand, has 2 small PG/CG-types (Pettiford, Yesufu) and 4 “bigs” or “5-men” (Ejiofor, Clemence, Udeh, Martin). None of these would traditionally be considered wings, although each of these six players has unique skill sets from one another. The only other bench player that could be considered a wing is Kyle Cuffe, who has been injured since the second game and thus not relevant to our current discussion.

The point is, this team starts all of the wings it plays. While the team has had success doing so, when it goes to the bench, the makeup of the lineup changes. When Pettiford and/or Yesufu come in, KU will play 2 (or 3) PG/CG types. Smaller, quicker, and with better ball-handling, these players give up size and are better scorers in the full-court rather than half-court. Defensively, these smaller guards tend to have trouble rebounding and contesting against the shots of taller opponents.

Whenever a backup 5 replaces Adams (namely Ejiofor or Clemence recently), KU loses an excellent wing defender (Adams) and gains a better rebounder who has trouble switching onto the opponents’ best guards and wings. The point is, KU is best suited to play its starting 5. Not only is the team better, the defensive strategy (liberal amounts of switches) is best suited for guys who are mobile and range from 6’6 – 6’8. Additionally, the offensive strategy of playing a spaced-out high-ball-screen system, utilizing a 5-man who can handle it well, doesn’t work as well with a substitute 5 who cannot handle it or an off-guard who isn’t able to make jump shots.

Rice’s skillset fits in nicely with what the team’s strategy is. Having him spell Kevin McCullar means you don’t give up any size at the off-guard position. Switching most screens still makes sense. Having him fill in for a Gradey Dick or Jalen Wilson means you have someone who has clear offensive potential…someone who can score. Playing alongside a Harris means he will get good looks.

One suggestion is that he would perform better if he could get into a rhythm. His semi-recent spot minutes have not been impressive, to be sure. But when he did play extended runs, such as his 18 minutes against NDSU or 21 against TSU, he scored 10 and 19 points.

Below is a table of KU wings in their freshmen years. What we want to do is compare Rice to these other names through about the same point in the season. As Rice has played 96 minutes, we will attempt to break-down these other freshmen wings at this point in their careers in terms of minutes played. It won’t be perfect, but we should be able to get value-scores of other wings.

The filter was to count the first 100 minutes of a player’s freshman season, with the difference being that we are counting whole-games worth of statistical value. The percentage of minutes show a variety of playing time by individual, with Ben McLemore playing the most of anyone. The PPG_AB and Per100 in gray show how well that player was doing through his first 100 minutes of court time. The last two blue columns show that player’s entire season.

The player who got off to the best start was Andrew Wiggins, and generally players who got off to good starts continued that momentum, albeit it with reversion to the mean. There were a few notable players who improved after sluggish starts, with Kelly Oubre and Josh Jackson being notables. Ochai Agbaji, although he showed potential, was a negative-value player when he first burned the redshirt. However, immediately following his first 112 minutes in 6 games played, he had his best outing against Texas. Thus, perhaps his development is overstated here. Conversely, Kelly Oubre’s slow start is somewhat masked by the fact his final game in the sequence was his best to that point. He hardly played at first, but slowly became a very solid player. His development throughout the course of the season was significant.

Where does this leave us with M.J.? Through roughly 100 minutes played, he is behind each of these names in terms of minutes played and per-possession value. On total value, his closest comps for the whole season are Grimes and Svi, neither of whom were any good in their freshman campaigns.  In terms of minutes played, he is getting similar time as Braun or Oubre did. Both of these improved to become positive-value players, indicating that there is still hope for a turnaround. But perhaps his closest comps are players not on this list. Wings that primarily sat as freshmen; players such as Travis Releford, Lagerald Vick, Brannen Greene, Andrew White, or Tristan Enaruna.

The biggest debate about M.J is one that is unanswerable. We don’t know how he’s doing in practice, and speculation about him being better than the team’s current crop of reserves is just that. When he’s played well, he’s certainly shown a dimension that guys like Pettiford or Yesufu don’t have, namely one that fits in well on the wing (BP and JY should still get minutes, especially when Harris needs a break). But when he’s been bad, well, it could cost you a game in an ultra-competitive Big 12.

Kansas 82, Kansas State 83

Jalen Wilson carried the Jayhawks all game, and in doing so posted the team’s best performance of the season. Not only did he score 38 points on efficient offense, he did so by playing solid defense throughout all 45 minutes of game time.

Dejuan Harris was KU’s second-best player. Although he only scored 3 points, he produced points thanks to 11 value assists and played solid defense on K-State’s second-best player and opposing PG. Conversely, poor defensive outings by Gradey Dick and K.J. Adams contributed to negative value-games on their ledgers, despite them scoring 16 and 17 points respectively.

This was the bench’s 7th-straight negative-value outing.

More on the Bench

While KU continues to win close games, it is in spite of its bench players. This phenomenon was discussed earlier in the season, and the discrepancy between its starters and bench has remained. Self has continued to play Bobby Pettiford and Joseph Yesufu as reserve guards, with an oft-injured M.J. Rice having not playing in the last three games. Zuby Ejiofor has been KU’s most-frequently-used bench big man in conference play (27 minutes), followed by Zach Clemence (21 minutes) and Cam Martin (6 minutes). Ernest Udeh has played in only 1 second of conference play. Yes, just 1 second. This came at the end of the Oklahoma State game when he was guarding the inbounds pass.

Since the last time we examined their performance, the KU bench has hardly changed in overall value it provides. After 10 games, the bench was positioned to earn about -3.00 WAR over a normalized 36-game schedule. With 17 games in the book, this has hardly budged. The 2023 bench is still the worst bench in the 20-year Self-era, and with no signs of improvement would be only the 6th bench to produce negative-WAR value over that time span.

One thing to consider is that there is a sort of floor to this number. The worse the bench plays, the less Self will go to it. Through 5 conference games, the starters have averaged 32.5 minutes per game each. This is Self maxing out starter-minutes. He cannot play them much more, considering foul trouble will occur at times and fatigue will set in. With limited bench minutes, two things should keep the number somewhat afloat. First, the bench has less collective time on the floor to perform poorly. Second, in limited minutes the bench players should have the energy to play each defensive possession 100%. The bench should be giving maximum effort when they are out there, thus maximizing their potential value on a possession basis.

There are various ways to quantify the dreadfulness of the bench rotation. We have used the WAR value metric to compare the 2023 bench to others in the Self-era. Now we will compare the 2023 starters – Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, and Adams – to the remainder of the team using Adj. Points AB +/-. This metric compares a player’s value, in points relative to a bubble-level opponent (about the 45th best team in D-1). Anything positive is quite good and should earn the player rotation minutes, with anything greater than +2.00 indicating a performance level that would start on almost any KU team.

The following numbers are thus presented per game, collectively divided between starters and bench.

The starting 5 produces an average difference of 13.16 points above a bubble team per game. They have been tremendous. This year’s starters have collectively out-done last season’s starting 5, which were +10.83 points above bubble per game. For the Missouri game, the starters were an absurd +39.84. They have only been below bubble-level as a group twice this season, first against Omaha (which was technically their worst opponent-adjusted performance) and second against Tennessee. Even then, these games were barely below the 0 threshold.

In contrast, the bench has played to a bubble-standard in only four games (23.5% of games). Ironically, its best game was against Omaha with a +5.02 performance, which is also the only time it has outperformed the starting 5. Its worst outing was against Southern Utah, in a game that was only close because of the reserves. Worse, the bench is trending downward. It hasn’t produced a positive outing since the Indiana game. Last season, on a team that featured seniors like Mitch Lightfoot, Jalen Coleman-Lands, and of course Remy Martin off the bench; it was collectively -0.52 and produced 17 games above bubble-standard (42.5%). This number was much higher at the end of the season when it counted, as the bench collectively produced an average game of +5.53 in the 9 games that made up the 2 tournaments. This was due to the great play of Remy, as well as a shortened rotation that played the senior reserves far more than the underclass backups. Suffice to say, the 2023 team doesn’t currently have that kind of fire-power waiting in the wings. It has underclassmen and transfers, none of whom have proven any capacity to be consistently great at the upper echelons of the D1 level.

Having a poor bench is no reason to despair. History has shown that teams with great starters can win in the Tournament despite having little help from its reserves. The 2012 runners-up had a very similar divide between a strong starting 5 and weak bench. However, even the 2012 bench had experience; Kevin Young was a redshirt junior and Conner Teahan a fifth-year senior. The 2016 team is another good comparison. It earned the number-one overall seed and made an Elite 8 on the backs of its experienced starters, getting little from its bench.

There are a few potential bright spots to consider when pondering the bench situation. First, is that KU has talented young players on its roster. It really only takes the development of one or two of the following by March for this situation to drastically improve: Pettiford, Yesufu, Rice, Ejiofor, Udeh, Clemence. If KU can comfortably play any of these guys 10 minutes or so and expect a consistent performance, it can better maintain leads that its starting 5 works to build. The second consideration doesn’t have to do with the bench, but with the makeup of the starting 5. The starters are all capable of playing a heavy-load, thus reducing the negative-impact the bench has collectively brought. K.J. Adams is far more like a wing than a post in terms of fitness and durability, meaning that even the 5-spot needs fewer bench minutes this season than it historically does.

Lastly, where should the team go from here? In comparing Per 100 points above bubble, there is good reason to like the potential development of Udeh and Ejiofor. These two have clearly been superior to other bench-players, particularly the other 5 men. While Ejiofor has gotten in games consistently, Udeh has been relegated to DNPs of late. Perhaps this should be reexamined, particularly if Clemence continues to defend at a poor level.

There hasn’t been much value from the reserve guards/wings. Injuries have plagued all four (with Cuffe still out), and even when healthy none have provided consistent value. The team loses scoring ability, size, and defensive skill when it goes to the bench and gains little. Shifting K.J. down to the 4 when Jalen is out is honestly a worthy consideration.

Kansas 62, Iowa State 60

Gradey Dick and Kevin McCullar were KU’s best players against the Cyclones. K.J. Adams, who had the winning basket as part of 15 points and Jalen Wilson, who finished with 16 points, had poor defensive showings overall. Still, K.J. has now ran off 11 consecutive positive-value games, a team record for this season.

The bench was again abysmal, this time combining to produce -7.05 points against bubble. Only once, the Nebraska-Omaha game, has the bench collectively produced more value points than the starting 5. And through 17 games this season, only 4 times (Omaha, NDSU, Texas Southern, Indiana) has the bench been above-bubble (reminder, this is an opponent-adjusted number).

Kansas 79, Oklahoma 75

Jalen Wilson’s defense graded out so well it earned him his 8th team-MVP game of the season. Wilson’s defense has been especially solid the last two games despite poor shooting performances. Once again, KU’s starters carried the load, as its bench was collectively 8 points worse than a bubble-team against OU. Zach Clemence had a great offensive night that was cancelled out by a poor defensive showing. Bobby Pettiford gave up a few baskets as well, while producing only 1 FT and 2 assists.

K.J. Adams had his 10th consecutive positive-bubble game thanks to a career-high 22 points. His rebounding was still the thing holding him back. Thus far, we have him with 54 fewer defensive boards than Jalen Wilson. When broken down by playing time, Wilson is nearly doubling him up on defensive rebounds on a per-minute or per-possession basis. The point is that if K.J. could clean the glass a bit more, he’d be adding even more value. Despite this limitation, he’s been great for Kansas.

Kansas 76, West Virginia 62

Jalen Wilson’s stingy defense won him his 7th game-MVP of the season. It was also his best individual game since the Missouri game. The other starters all performed very well.

The bench guards Pettiford and Yesufu gave up too many points on defense. Backup 5-men, Ejiofor and Clemence, had positive games in their limited minutes. For Clemence, he scored his first points of the season on an assisted layup in the second half.