An ongoing power rating has been created to predict all high school games between 11-man teams in the state of Kansas. This rating will be updated weekly following all the games that week. Additionally, a sampling of game margin predictions will be posted each week along with the model’s cumulative accuracy for all games once games results are final. Predictions will be listed as if you were offering a bet (so -7 would mean that team is favored by 7 points). Below will be a running list of predictions/results by week.

Week 13 (State Championship Games)

6A: Gardner Edgerton (-5) 60% vs. Derby

The Trailblazers had an impressive 35-3 win against Blue Valley in last week’s state semifinals, and will face Derby for the title. Derby defeated Manhattan by 2 and Washburn Rural by 1 in its last two games, both of which were road victories. At only 5 points, this game is projected to be closer than one might expect.

5A: Mill Valley (+2) 47% vs. Kapaun Mt. Carmel

Mill Valley won on a controversial decision, essentially getting a final try that wouldn’t have happened had its QB been called down during the prior play, in its 48-47 win at Blue Valley Southwest. The Jaguars look to make it 5 titles in a row as a slight underdog to an impressive Kapaun Mt. Carmel team. Kapaun, at 11-1, has won 3 consecutive playoff games by 10 points or fewer. Expect this one to be close.

4A: St. Thomas Aquinas (-17) 89% vs. Andover Central

It’s 6-seed vs. 6-seed as Aquinas battles Andover Central. Andover Central had a huge upset win against Wamego (who was 13 point favorites) and will have to pull off a similar thing to win on Saturday. For Aquinas, their big win against Bishop Miege in Week 10 has catapulted the Saints to blow wins in the quarterfinals and semifinals. They are poised to get the title, but there is a reason the games still get played.

3A: Topeka Hayden (+9) 29% vs. Cheney

Cheney knocked off Andale for the second time this season in last week’s semifinals, coming back from a 24-0 deficit to win 28-24. Andale’s state title streak is officially over, but the program is poised to be back next year. What a run. For Cheney, capping this season off with a state title of its own is the goal now. Hayden will be tough, and was the only true threat in the East when the playoffs began (they were given a 79% chance of making state before Week 9). Now that they’ve made state, they’ll just need one great game in Hutch as underdogs to finish the dream season.

2A: Nemaha Central (0) 50% vs. Hoisington

The model has this game as a true 50/50 battle. Both teams took care of business as strong favorites, and one of them will walk away with the hardware on Saturday.

1A: Jefferson County North (+5.5) 38% vs. Conway Springs

Jefferson County North went down to Pittsburg and defeated favored St. Mary’s-Colgan in last week’s semis, whereas Conway Springs took care of business as favorites. This game is within a touchdown spread, with Conway being the favorite.

Weeks 5-12 Model Accuracy:

Winner predicted in 538/622games (86.5%). Average point difference moe: 12.98 points.

Winning percentage by favorite point spread:

0-5 64.1%

5-10 68.3%

10-15 79.0%

15-20 91.7%

20-25 90.6%

25-30 95.7%

30-125 100.0%

Week 12 (Playoff Semifinals)

6A-East: (6) Blue Valley @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-15) 85%

6A-West (3) Derby @ (1) Washburn Rural (+8.5) 30%

State Odds: Gardner Edgerton 52.4%, Derby 35.2%, Washburn Rural 8.5%, Blue Valley 3.9%

5A-East: (4) Mill Valley @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-5) 61%

5A-West: (2) Goddard Eisenhower @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-7.5) 68%

State Odds: Blue Valley Southwest 36.7%, Kapaun Mt. Carmel 33.6%, Mill Valley 19.4%, Goddard Eisenhower 10.3%

4A-East: (6) St. Thomas Aquinas @ (5) Tonganoxie (+6) 35%

4A-West: (6) Andover Central @ (1) Wamego (-13) 81%

State Odds: St. Thomas Aquinas 43.2%, Wamego 35.5%, Tonganoxie 18.7%, Andover Central 2.6%

3A-East: Holton @ Topeka Hayden (-21) 91%

3A-West: Andale @ Cheney (+11.5) 22%

State Odds: Andale 71.1%, Cheney 16.0%, Topeka Hayden 12.9%, Holton 0.09%

2A-East: Sabetha @ Nemaha Central (-10) 73%

2A-West: Hoisington @ Norton (+17) 11%

State Odds: Hoisington 51.4%, Nemaha Central 38.9%, Sabetha 7.8%, Norton 1.9%

1A-East: Jefferson County North @ St. Mary’s-Colgan (-3) 55%

1A-West: Medicine Lodge @ Conway Springs (-10.5) 75%

State Odds: Conway Springs 44.5%, St. Mary’s-Colgan 28.1%, Jefferson County North 18.6%, Medicine Lodge 8.8%

Week 11 (Playoff Quarterfinals)

6A:

(5) Blue Valley Northwest @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-19.5) 91%

(6) Blue Valley @ (2) Olathe North (-8) 69%

(5) Wichita East @ (1) Washburn Rural (+15.5) 14%

(3) Derby @ (2) Manhattan (0) 50%

Current State odds: Gardner Edgerton 34.7%, Wichita East 33.4%, Derby 13.4%, Manhattan 13.0%, Olathe North 3.9%, Washburn Rural 1.0%, Blue Valley 0.4%, Blue Valley Northwest 0.3%

5A:

(9) Topeka Seaman @ (4) Mill Valley (-9) 72%

(6) Shawnee Heights @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-16) 87%

(4) Maize South @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-4.5) 59%

(11) Maize @ (2) Goddard Eisenhower (-14) 83%

Current State odds: Blue Valley Southwest 32.4%, Kapaun Mt. Carmel 25.0%, Mill Valley 14.9%, Goddard Eisenhower 12.6%, Maize South 12.6%, Topeka Seaman 1.5%, Shawnee Heights 0.8%, Maize 0.2%

4A:

(5) Tonganoxie @ (1) Atchison (+7) 33%

(7) Basehor-Linwood @ (6) St. Thomas Aquinas (-10.5) 76%

(4) Wellington @ (1) Wamego (-26) 94%

(7) McPherson @ (6) Andover Central (-7) 67%

Current State odds: Wamego 39.5%, St. Thomas Aquinas 25.7%, Tonganoxie 21.6%, Atchison 5.4%, Andover Central 4.3%, Basehor-Linwood 2.8%, McPherson 0.6%, Wellington 0.08%

3A:

Holton @ Frontenac (+8) 37%

Topeka Hayden @ Parsons (+18.5) 92%

Cheney @ Clay Center (-3.5) 60%

Wichita Collegiate @ Andale (-15.5) 85%

Current State odds: Andale 51.9%, Clay Center 18.9%, Topeka Hayden 18.6%, Cheney 7.5%, Wichita Collegiate 3.0%, Holton 0.1%, Parsons 0.08%, Frontenac 0.01%

2A:

Sabetha @ Humboldt (+12) 21%

Osage City @ Nemaha Central (-26.5) 94%

Southeast of Saline @ Hoisington (+9) 29%

Ellsworth @ Norton (+6.5) 34%

Current State odds: Southeast of Saline 48.1%, Nemaha Central 31.3%, Hoisington 12.4%, Sabetha 3.7%, Ellsworth 3.7%, Norton 0.7%, Humboldt 0.1%, Osage City 0.06%

1A:

St. Mary’s-Colgan @ St. Marys (+7.5) 32%

Olpe @ Jefferson County North (-14.5) 84%

Conway Springs @ Marion (+9.5) 28%

Medicine Lodge @ Valley Heights (-2) 53%

Current State odds: Conway Springs 35.1%, St. Mary’s-Colgan 27.6%, Jefferson County North 13.0%, Valley Heights 6.7%, St. Marys 6.7%, Marion 6.2%, Medicine Lodge 4.5%, Olpe 0.2%

Week 10 (Playoffs Round of 16)

Week 10 is when the Playoffs really begin. There will be a total of 48 games played between the six classes to determine which teams will be quarterfinalists this year. With Week 9’s games being decided by an average of 33 points, Week 10’s matchups will be far more competitive.  The average expected margin of victory is 14.3 points, with 29/48 matchups expected to be within 14 points.

6A:

(8) Shawnee Mission Northwest @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-38.5) 100%

(5) Blue Valley Northwest @ (4) Olathe South (+14) 17%

(6) Blue Valley @ (3) Olathe East (0) 50%

(7) Blue Valley West @ (2) Olathe North (-7) 67%

(8) Junction City @ (1) Washburn Rural (-8.5) 70%

(5) Wichita East @ (4) Wichita Northwest (+1) 48%

(6) Lawrence @ (3) Derby (-25.5) 94%

(7) Lawrence Free State @ (2) Manhattan (-24) 93%

The West is completely up for grabs, with undefeated Washburn Rural sitting as a vulnerable team from here on out. If the Junior Blues can get past Junction City, whichever Wichita City League school wins between East and Northwest will be a tough matchup. In the East, the Sunflower League did not have a great first round of the playoffs (compared to the rest of the state), meaning the chances for Gardner and Olathe North took a hit. Still, one of these two schools should get through and make State.

5A:

(9) Topeka Seaman @ (1) De Soto (-6.5) 66%

(5) Spring Hill @ (4) Mill Valley (+6.5) 34%

(6) Shawnee Heights @ (3) Topeka Highland Park (+42.5) 0%

(10) Lansing @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-12) 80%

(9) Great Bend @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-15) 85%

(5) Hutchinson @ (4) Maize South (-3.5) 56%

(11) Maize @ (3) Liberal (-9.5) 72%

(7) Hays @ (2) Goddard Eisenhower (-3.5) 56%

In the East, Shawnee Heights is the benefactor of a good draw this year, and will play its very over-seeded Highland Park rivals in a guarantee win game. The other games should be close, with 4-time defending 5A champ Mill Valley actually home underdogs according to the model. Should Mill Valley prevail, it could face district rival De Soto. In the West, the Hutch/Maize South is a rematch of a 28-23 Hutch comeback victory. Can the Salthawks do it again? The other games should be competitive as well, watch out for a potential Hays upset of Eisenhower.

4A:

(8) Eudora @ (1) Atchison (+1) 48%

(5) Tonganoxie @ (4) Chanute (+22.5) 8%

(6) St. Thomas Aquinas @ (3) Bishop Miege (-8.5) 71%

(7) Basehor-Linwood @ (2) Louisburg (-10) 74%

(9) Rose Hill @ (1) Wamego (-29.5) 96%

(5) Field Kindley @ (4) Wellington (+4.5) 41%

(6) Andover Central @ (3) Abilene (-7) 67%

(7) McPherson @ (2) Buhler (-10.5) 75%

In the East, the JoCo Catholic School battle continues with Aquinas facing Miege in a rematch from Week 6. Can Randy Dreiling’s Saints pull the upset and end Miege’s reign on 4A? 4A is very competitive in the East this year, with Louisburg and Tonganoxie being very strong potential State participants. In the West, Mac travels to Buhler as an underdog despite winning against the Crusaders a few weeks back. Wamego looks like the team to beat in the West, but it likely won’t fall anytime soon.

3A:

Burlington @ Frontenac (-17.5) 89%

Holton @ Wellsville (-10) 74%

Parsons @ Prairie View (+12.5) 20%

Santa Fe Trail @ Topeka Hayden (-38) 98%

Hesston @ Clay Center (-39) 100%

Holcomb @ Cheney (-17) 89%

Rock Creek @ Wichita Collegiate (-9.5) 73%

Andale @ Scott Community (+19.5) 9%

3A’s games don’t appear to be as competitive despite each home team winning during Week 9’s opening playoff rounds. For East teams, Topeka Hayden is the clear favorite. Andale is looking very strong after dropping a regular season tilt to Cheney. They are nearly 20-point road favorites. If anyone is to knock off Andale this year, it will likely be the winner of Clay Center/Cheney. Both these teams should have a straightforward path to the quarterfinals where they’d face off against each other.

2A:

Humboldt @ Riverton (+8.5) 30%

Sabetha @ Silver Lake (-1) 52%

Council Grove @ Osage City (-11.5) 79%

Riley County @ Nemaha Central (-20.5) 91%

Kingman @ Southeast of Saline (-21.5) 92%

Beloit @ Hoisington (-20.5) 91%

Ellsworth @ Garden Plain (+1) 48%

Thomas More Prep-Marian @ Norton (-12.5) 19.1%

Both Nemaha Central (in the East) and Southeast of Saline (in the West) have a 2 in 3 chance of making State. The brackets are aligning for these two schools to face off, but watch out for potential spoilers in Silver Lake (East) or Hoisington (West).

1A:

Jayhawk Linn @ St. Mary’s-Colgan (-27) 95%

Jackson Heights @ St. Marys (-19) 90%

Central Heights @ Olpe (-26) 94%

Jefferson County North @ Centralia (+3.5) 44%

Marion @ Smith Center (-8.5) 70%

Sterling @ Conway Springs (-12) 80%

Valley Heights @ Sedgwick (+6.5) 34%

Hutchinson Trinity @ Medicine Lodge (-8) 69%

The two Saint Mary’ses are bound to meet. 1A should see some competitive matchups in the weeks to come, but this week watch out for Marion and Smith Center.

Week 9 (Playoffs Round of 32)

The playoffs are here! There will be 96 playoff games across all 6 classifications beginning this Thursday. These write-ups will be a bit different as the full playoff landscape can be seen below. But first, here are a few spreads for the Round of 32:

(6A) Blue Valley North @ Gardner Edgerton (-41)

(6A) Shawnee Mission West @ Olathe North (-59)

(6A) Wichita North @ Washburn Rural (-88)

(6A) Garden City @ Lawrence Free State (-11)

(5A) Kansas City Turner @ De Soto (-73.5)

(5A) Leavenworth @ Spring Hill (-32)

(5A) Wichita West @ Hutchinson (-36.5)

(5A) Maize @ Goddard (-13.5)

(4A) Ottawa @ Tonganoxie (-20)

(4A) St. James Academy @ Bishop Miege (-28.5)

6A Playoffs:

Only one school managed to run the table at 8-0 in the regular season among 6A (and 5A) teams, namely Washburn Rural. Rural is the #1 seed in the West bracket, but has only the fifth best odds to win the West due to how balanced and strong 6A is. Gardner Edgerton in the East has the best odds to win state at 37.1%.

Seed	Team	R16	Qtrs	Semis	Finals	Champs
1	Washburn Rural	1	0.848	0.325	0.118	0.057
16	Wichita North
8	Junction City	0.852	0.145	0.014	0.001
4	Wichita Northwest	1	0.525	0.36	0.179	0.107
13	Campus
5	Wichita East	1	0.475	0.301	0.141	0.08
12	Wichita South
6	Lawrence	0.914	0.071	0.006
11	Dodge City	0.086
3	Derby	1	0.929	0.434	0.228	0.13
14	Topeka
7	Lawrence Free State	0.76	0.062	0.008	0.001
10	Garden City	0.24	0.008
2	Manhattan	1	0.93	0.551	0.331	0.209
15	Wichita Southeast
1	Gardner Edgerton	1	1	0.913	0.751	0.371
16	Blue Valley North
8	Shawnee Mission Northwest	0.527
9	Shawnee Mission East	0.473
4	Olathe South	0.824	0.156	0.005
13	Shawnee Mission South	0.176	0.012
5	Blue Valley Northwest	0.965	0.826	0.081	0.033	0.003
12	Olathe Northwest	0.035	0.006
6	Blue Valley	0.947	0.458	0.177	0.025	0.003
11	Olathe West	0.053	0.002
3	Olathe East	1	0.539	0.219	0.034	0.004
14	Kansas City Wyandotte
7	Blue Valley West	0.936	0.251	0.111	0.014	0.001
10	Shawnee Mission North	0.064	0.002
2	Olathe North	1	0.748	0.493	0.142	0.034
15	Shawnee Mission West

An additional element practically unique to the 6A Tournament is the fact no Sunflower League team has played against a team outside the league so far. The following first round 6A games are between a Sunflower League team and non-SL team:

• Dodge City @ Lawrence
• Garden City @ Lawrence Free State
• Blue Valley North @ Gardner Edgerton
• Olathe Northwest @ Blue Valley Northwest
• Olathe West @ Blue Valley
• Kansas City Wyandotte @ Olathe East
• Shawnee Mission North @ Blue Valley West

We have less confidence in predicting these games. After Week 9, these 7 games alongside one in 5A will help make the rankings stronger for the remaining weeks.

5A Playoffs

Seed	Team	R16	Qtrs	Semis	Finals	Champs
1	Kapaun Mt. Carmel	1	0.883	0.465	0.332	0.185
16	Salina South
8	Salina Central	0.443	0.042	0.005	0.001
4	Maize South	0.967	0.578	0.32	0.232	0.132
13	Bishop Carroll	0.033	0.002
5	Hutchinson	0.977	0.42	0.199	0.121	0.057
12	Wichita West	0.023
6	Goddard	0.822	0.625	0.327	0.106	0.038
11	Maize	0.178	0.086	0.017	0.002
3	Liberal	0.854	0.276	0.075	0.009	0.001
14	Newton	0.146	0.014	0.001
7	Hays	0.508	0.13	0.051	0.006	0.001
10	Valley Center	0.492	0.118	0.045	0.005
2	Goddard Eisenhower	0.963	0.749	0.484	0.182	0.073
15	Andover	0.037	0.003
1	De Soto	1	0.74	0.503	0.29	0.164
16	Kansas City Turner
8	Kansas City Washington
9	Topeka Seaman	1	0.26	0.119	0.039	0.013
4	Mill Valley	1	0.51	0.191	0.073	0.029
13	Topeka West
5	Spring Hill	0.965	0.489	0.188	0.074	0.029
12	Leavenworth	0.035	0.001
6	Shawnee Heights	1	1	0.27	0.096	0.031
11	Kansas City Sumner
3	Topeka Highland Park	1
14	Kansas City Harmon
7	Pittsburg	0.1	0.003
10	Lansing	0.9	0.14	0.062	0.017	0.004
2	Blue Valley Southwest	1	0.856	0.668	0.411	0.241
15	Emporia

Blue Valley Southwest has a good draw and is expected to win state 24.1% of the time. 6-seed Shawnee Heights has a projected 100% chance of winning its first two games as it has Kansas City schools and Highland Park in its quadrant.

4A Playoffs

Seed	Team	R16	Qtrs	Semis	Finals	Champs
1	Wamego	1	0.985	0.944	0.796	0.36
16	El Dorado
8	Winfield	0.413
4	Wellington	0.635	0.222	0.007
13	Circle	0.365	0.078
5	Field Kindley	0.905	0.673	0.043	0.009
12	Augusta	0.095	0.028
6	Andover Central	0.968	0.438	0.266	0.05	0.007
11	Independence	0.032	0.001
3	Abilene	0.968	0.559	0.396	0.099	0.019
14	Arkansas City	0.032	0.002
7	McPherson	0.862	0.189	0.024	0.002
10	Mulvane	0.138	0.01
2	Buhler	0.973	0.798	0.313	0.043	0.005
15	Ulysses	0.027	0.003
1	Atchison	1	0.545	0.196	0.044	0.016
16	Bonner Springs
8	Eudora	0.905	0.446	0.156	0.033	0.012
9	Kansas City Piper	0.096	0.009
4	Chanute	1	0.117	0.024	0.002
13	Kansas City Schlagle
5	Tonganoxie	0.911	0.837	0.612	0.267	0.155
12	Ottawa	0.089	0.047	0.012
6	St. Thomas Aquinas	0.969	0.263	0.13	0.067	0.034
11	Fort Scott	0.031
3	Bishop Miege	0.951	0.73	0.528	0.396	0.287
14	St. James Academy	0.049	0.006
7	Basehor-Linwood	0.7	0.159	0.025	0.008	0.002
10	Paola	0.3	0.027	0.002
2	Louisburg	1	0.814	0.314	0.182	0.103
15	Labette County

Wamego is now the favorite in 4A with a 36.0% chance to win state given its strength and draw. The three Catholic JoCo schools, who are in the same (strong) league and have played each other, all share the same quadrant meaning only one of Miege/Aquinas/St. James can make it to the quarters. Look out for Tonganoxie and Louisburg in the East as well.

3A Playoffs:

Seed	Team	R16	Qtrs	Semis	Finals	Champs
1	Clay Center	1	1	0.734	0.452	0.383
4	Clearwater
2	Hesston	0.453
1	Cheney	1	0.861	0.256	0.106	0.07
4	Colby
2	Holcomb	0.605	0.102	0.008	0.001
3	Pratt	0.395	0.037	0.002
1	Wichita Collegiate	0.965	0.685	0.169	0.038	0.021
4	Concordia	0.035	0.004
2	Rock Creek	0.933	0.308	0.039	0.004	0.002
3	Chapman	0.067	0.003
1	Scott Community	1	0.26	0.161	0.047	0.029
4	Smoky Valley
2	Andale	0.916	0.718	0.622	0.35	0.298
3	Hugoton	0.084	0.022	0.009	0.001
1	Frontenac	0.902	0.816	0.172	0.013
4	Girard	0.098	0.052	0.002
2	Burlington	0.894	0.128	0.006
3	Columbus	0.106	0.004
1	Wellsville	0.964	0.786	0.69	0.159	0.012
4	Perry-Lecompton	0.036	0.005
2	Holton	0.905	0.204	0.128	0.013
3	Bishop Ward	0.095	0.005	0.001
1	Prairie View	0.961	0.231	0.009	0.002
4	Baxter Springs	0.039
2	Parsons	0.899	0.73	0.07	0.028
3	Iola	0.101	0.039
1	Topeka Hayden	1	0.982	0.917	0.786	0.184
4	Baldwin
2	Santa Fe Trail	0.787	0.018	0.004
3	Royal Valley	0.213

Powerhouse and 4-time defending champion Andale has the second-best odds this year, with Clay Center being most likely to win at Gowans Stadium among 3A teams. The West is far stronger than the East. Only Topeka Hayden and Wellsville have a greater than 0.05% chance.

2A Playoffs:

Seed	Team	R16	Qtrs	Semis	Finals	Champs
1	Southeast of Saline	1	0.951	0.753	0.703	0.586
4	Chaparral
2	Kingman	0.824	0.049	0.011	0.005	0.001
1	Hoisington	0.948	0.897	0.234	0.191	0.114
4	Phillipsburg	0.052	0.027
2	Beloit	0.821	0.074	0.003
3	Lakin	0.179	0.002
1	Garden Plain	0.696	0.363	0.215	0.023	0.007
4	Halstead	0.304	0.097	0.039	0.002
2	Ellsworth	0.903	0.525	0.321	0.038	0.013
3	Haven	0.097	0.016	0.003
1	Norton	0.955	0.794	0.39	0.038	0.011
4	Cimarron	0.045	0.007
2	Larned	0.51	0.105	0.017
3	Thomas More Prep-Marian	0.49	0.095	0.014
1	Riverton	0.968	0.213	0.021	0.001
4	West Franklin	0.032
2	Humboldt	1	0.787	0.246	0.032	0.002
3	Cherryvale
1	Silver Lake	0.803	0.368	0.263	0.051	0.005
4	Minneapolis	0.197	0.031	0.013	0.001
2	Sabetha	1	0.601	0.456	0.111	0.014
3	Atchison County
1	Osage City	1	0.814	0.059	0.015
4	Neodesha
2	Caney Valley	0.488	0.088
3	Council Grove	0.512	0.098
1	Nemaha Central	1	0.91	0.873	0.758	0.243
4	Pleasant Ridge
2	Rossville	0.682	0.07	0.054	0.027	0.002
3	Riley County	0.318	0.02	0.012	0.004

Southeast of Saline is the only team with a +50% chance of winning state among all classes. With an 8-0 record and a win against the top team in 3A (Clay Center), the Spartans are a tough team to beat.

1A Playoffs:

Seed	Team	R16	Qtrs	Semis	Finals	Champs
1	Smith Center	1	0.905	0.545	0.415	0.265
4	Belle Plaine
2	Marion	0.527	0.052	0.01	0.004
1	Conway Springs	1	0.857	0.418	0.285	0.161
4	Stanton County
2	Ellis	0.162	0.007
3	Sterling	0.838	0.136	0.02	0.007	0.002
1	Sedgwick	0.888	0.181	0.069	0.008	0.001
4	Salina Sacred Heart	0.112	0.005
2	Valley Heights	1	0.814	0.533	0.193	0.09
3	Remington
1	Plainville	0.593	0.198	0.055	0.007	0.001
4	Hutchinson Trinity	0.408	0.088	0.016	0.001
2	Medicine Lodge	1	0.714	0.327	0.078	0.027
3	Oakley
1	St. Mary’s-Colgan	1	0.945	0.592	0.389	0.204
4	Pleasanton
2	Jayhawk Linn	1	0.055	0.006
3	Uniontown
1	St. Marys	1	0.903	0.391	0.209	0.086
4	Riverside
2	Jackson Heights	0.928	0.097	0.01	0.002
3	Mission Valley	0.072
1	Olpe	1	0.952	0.216	0.037	0.006
4	Northeast
2	Erie	0.146
3	Central Heights	0.854	0.048
1	Centralia	1	0.398	0.282	0.105	0.035
4	Oskaloosa
2	Jefferson County North	0.969	0.6	0.501	0.258	0.12
3	Troy	0.031	0.002

1A should be competitive, with 6 schools having an 8.5% chance of greater of winning state.

Week 8

Hutchinson @ Andover (+36) (Hut by 26)

Basehor-Linwood @ De Soto (-8) (DS by 27)

Olathe South @ Gardner Edgerton (-33) (GE by 32)

Goddard Eisenhower @ Goddard (+5.5) (G by 8)

St. James Academy @ Blue Valley North (+11) (SJA by 19)

Manhattan @ Wichita Northwest (0) (Man by 4)

Olathe North @ Lawrence Free State (+6) (ON by 14)

Spring Hill @ Louisburg (-3) (Louis by 14)

Blue Valley West @ Blue Valley (+7) (BV by 4)

St. Thomas Aquinas @ Blue Valley Southwest (+6) (BV SW by 21)

Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ Wichita Heights (+40.5) (KMC by 12)

Week 7’s results changed the state title landscape considerably across all classes. There were numerous upsets, including Lawrence defeating Lawrence Free State in a rivalry game that was somehow missed in last week’s posted predictions. Olathe East beating Gardner Edgerton by 2 touchdowns was shocking as well. The most important game was Kapaun Mt. Carmel’s strong win versus St. James Academy. This result helped teams outside of the Johnson County area and tilted the balance of power toward the “west” (west here includes teams like Manhattan and Washburn Rural).

State playoff odds going into Week 8. The following win percentages are calculated given the current bracket. With the official brackets being set after the conclusion of the regular season next week, note these percentages can change due to seeding alone. Updated team strengths following Week 8 game results will also effect which teams have the best chances to win state.

4A:

Team	Win %
Bishop Miege	48.6%
Wamego	12.8%
Tonganoxie	12.7%
St. Thomas Aquinas	10.1%
Abilene	6.4%
Louisburg	4.5%
Atchison	2.3%
Buhler	1.4%
Andover Central	0.7%
Basehor-Linwood	0.2%
Eudora	0.2%

Despite winning, Miege’s perceived chances took a hit due to its opponents having poor showings. The current projections still have the Stags as the best team in 4A, but certainly not as invincible as they once seemed.

5A:

Team	Win %
Kapaun Mt. Carmel	31.1%
Blue Valley Southwest	20.7%
Maize South	14.2%
De Soto	8.3%
Hutchinson	8.0%
Goddard Eisenhower	7.3%
Spring Hill	4.5%
Mill Valley	2.9%
Goddard	1.9%
Topeka Seaman	0.5%
Liberal	0.2%
Valley Center	0.2%
Shawnee Heights	0.1%

Kapaun has emerged as Kansas’ best 5A team, but it will still face competition in the West and a tough opponent in the state title game should it get that far. Mill Valley, the reigning 5A champ, is still the wildcard in this class. If the Sunflower League’s strength is undervalued, its state championship odds could be higher than what is shown.

6A:

Team	Win %
Gardner Edgerton	37.7%
Wichita Northwest	18.5%
Derby	13.5%
Manhattan	10.9%
Washburn Rural	8.1%
Wichita East	6.2%
Olathe North	2.5%
Blue Valley Northwest	1.1%
Olathe East	0.7%
Blue Valley	0.5%
Blue Valley West	0.2%
Lawrence Free State	0.1%

Despite being the state’s highest-rated team, Manhattan only has a 10.9% chance of winning state given the current bracket configuration. This is due to it having to face a strong Wichita East team in the Round of 16 and then possible matchup against Wichita Northwest. From there, a matchup against either Derby or Washburn Rural (who beat the Indians already) would have to be won just to get to state. As of today, Manhattan would be only a 1-point favorite against Gardner Edgerton, the best team on the east side of the bracket.

Gardner Edgerton’s loss to Olathe East last week was the second-biggest surprise of the season (behind a 1A matchup of Oskaloosa and McLouth). But the Trailblazers are still the likely #1 seed in the East and should get a good draw.

Week 7

Andale @ Cheney (+13.5) (Che by 6)

Maize South @ Derby (0) (Der by 8)

Olathe East @ Gardner Edgerton (-25.5) (OE by 14)

Maize @ Hutchinson (-19) (Hut by 19)

Blue Valley Southwest @ Kansas City Wyandotte (+106) (BV SW by 50)

Manhattan @ Lansing (+19.5) (Man by 42)

Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ St. James Academy (-1.5) (KMC by 21)

Hays @ Liberal (-6.5) (Hay by 7)

Mill Valley @ Olathe North (-1) (ON by 14)

Blue Valley North @ Blue Valley Northwest (-23.5) (BV NW by 21)

Bishop Miege @ Blue Valley West (+23) (BM by 8)

St. Thomas Aquinas @ Blue Valley (+11.5) (STA by 3)

Week 5 results = 87/107 winners predicted (81.3%). Avg. Marg. error = 13.84

Many of Week 7’s games featuring top teams should be competitive. In the East, the Mill Valley @ Olathe North game will have big implications on sorting out the second best team in the Sunflower League. This game is paralleled by Maize South @ Derby in the greater Wichita area. It’s great to see potentially-close matchups this late in the season.

Other games of note include the cross-state battle with Kapaun Mt. Carmel traveling to JoCo to take on St. James Academy. Despite SJA’s 1-5 record, they are the slight favorite to one of the best team’s in 5A. Lastly, Blue Valley Southwest is favored by over 100 against KC Wyandotte. One doubts the Wolves run up the score this high, but the fact these programs are estimated to be this different is staggering.

State Playoff Odds

Using the current rankings and current seedings, odds were calculated for who the state champion is likely to be for 6A, 5A, and 4A. These will be updated each week for the rest of the season. Following Week 6/before Week 7, here they are:

6A:

Team	Win %
Gardner Edgerton	78.2%
Lawrence Free State	4.3%
Blue Valley Northwest	3.6%
Wichita Northwest	3.2%
Blue Valley	2.7%
Olathe North	2.5%
Blue Valley West	1.3%
Wichita East	1.1%
Washburn Rural	0.8%
Manhattan	0.7%
Olathe East	0.6%
Lawrence	0.5%
Derby	0.4%

5A

Team	Win %
Blue Valley Southwest	66.5%
Mill Valley	17.4%
Maize South	6.2%
Kapaun Mt. Carmel	4.1%
De Soto	1.9%
Hutchinson	1.3%
Spring Hill	1.2%
Goddard Eisenhower	1.0%
Goddard	0.2%
Topeka Seaman	0.1%

4A

Team	Win %
Bishop Miege	66.9%
St. Thomas Aquinas	31.1%
Wamego	1.0%
Tonganoxie	0.5%
St. James Academy	0.2%
Eudora	0.1%
Abilene	0.1%

The best teams in the state at the top classes have emerged. Gardner nearly has a 4 in 5 chance of winning state, with Blue Valley SW and Miege being around 2 in 3. These numbers can tighten before we get to the later rounds of the playoffs, but it is unlikely that any of these teams fails to be the clear favorite going into, say, week 10. Still, there is only a 34.8% chance that all 3 of these teams win state, so don’t write off an upset completely.

In total, Johnson County could very easily sweep state in the top classes. In fact, the odds say JoCo teams will win all three state titles 78% of the time.

The thing to watch in the final two weeks is seeding, which won’t change the title odds much, but can have a big effect on how far certain teams go in the playoffs. Due to heavily unbalanced schedules, brackets on either side (East or West) can themselves have an easier portion or harder portion depending on how teams finish. For instance, in 5A East, De Soto is currently the #1 seed, opposite both Mill Valley and Blue Valley SW. In order for De Soto to get to state, the best way is to avoid having to beat both of these teams. If the Wildcats can hold on to the #1 seed, they’ll likely have a better draw. This is somewhat different from 4A, where 1-5 St. James Academy is currently the #14 seed in the East. SJA will want to avoid Bishop Miege (currently #3 in East), which is the best team of course. Should SJA jump one spot to #13, they’d be a strong favorite to get to the state semis (assuming Aquinas stays on the other side).

Week 6

Blue Valley West @ St. James Academy (+8.5) (BV W by 3)

Blue Valley Northwest @ Blue Valley Southwest (-1.5) (BV SW by 20)

Bishop Miege @ St. Thomas Aquinas (+4.5) (BM by 12)

Shawnee Mission South @ Mill Valley (-31) (MV by 35)

Gardner Edgerton @ Lawrence (+32.5) (GE by 29)

Bishop Carroll @ Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-43) (KMC by 29)

Goddard @ Maize South (-9) (MS by 21)

Wichita Collegiate @ Andale (-11.5) (And by 21)

Hutchinson @ Campus (+44) (Hut by 28)

Derby @ Maize (+29.5) (Der by 14)

Total games: 107. Avg. Est. Margin: 25.0. (Avg. Margin = 30.3)

Week 5 results = 95/107 winners predicted (88.8%). Avg. Marg. error = 13.19

Week 6’s offerings have a few “holy wars” featuring Catholic schools against each other. Carroll is down this year and is expected to get blown out to Kapuan. The Miege/Aquinas rivalry game will help determine who the best team in the state is. The cross-class BV Northwest/BV Southwest matchup should also be a close one between 6A and 5A state contenders respectively.

Andale, which hasn’t lost in 4 years, is “only” 11.5 point favorites to Collegiate. Goddard and Maize South share the same record at the moment…the winner goes to 5-1 and the loser to 4-2. This game will have a huge impact on seeding for the west side of the 5A state tournament.

Margins matter. The seeding for each bracket is based on W/L record followed by head-to-head followed by margin. Because head-to-head isn’t often a factor (particularly when there are 3+ teams with same record), beating your opponents by a lot can be the difference between a few places on the seed-line.

Week 5

Olathe North @ Gardner Edgerton (-19.5) (GE by 7)

Blue Valley @ Bishop Miege (-30) (BM by 7)

Blue Valley Northwest @ Blue Valley West (0) (BV NW by 14)

Blue Valley Southwest @ Blue Valley North (+24) (BV WS by 34)

Southeast of Saline @ Clay Center (0) (SE o S by 5)

Mill Valley @ Olathe South (+8) (MV by 56)

Washburn Rural @ Junction City (+21.5) (WR by 21)

Shawnee Mission North @ Lawrence (-22) (Law by 15)

Lawrence Free State @ Shawnee Mission South (+31.5) (LFS by 25)

Emporia @ Manhattan (+68) (Man by 44)

Salina South @ Hutchinson (-54.5) (Hut by 43)

Nickerson @ Andale (-97) (And by 78)

Campus @ Derby (-50) (Der by 48)

Wichita Northwest @ Topeka (+48.5) (W NW by 63)

Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ Wichita Southeast (+67.5) (KMC by 58)

Goddard Eisenhower @ Andover (+38) (G E by 34)

Maize South @ Maize (+12) (MS by 47)

Total games: 107. Avg. Est. Margin: 27.5. (Avg. Margin = 30.1)

Week 5 results = 94/107 winners predicted (87.9%). Avg. Marg. error = 12.58

These games should cover the best teams in the state and the top candidates to win 6A or 5A. The top billing is Gardner Edgerton, fresh off its blow out win against Mill Valley, hosting a solid Olathe North team. The Maize/Maize South rivalry game will also help sort out the pecking order in 5A on the west side of the bracket. Watch out for the Clay Center/Southeast of Saline 3A/2A matchup. Additionally, Andale will kill Nickerson but can they get to 97? Last year’s score was 108-0. There are a multitude of mismatches in high school football. The average expected score differential for all games this Friday is expected to be nearly four touchdowns.

Another goal is to get playoff predictions in after week 6. By this point, it is possible to simulate the rest of the regular season, create a bracket using the bracketing rules, and then simulate tournaments for each class (at the very least, 6A and 5A). My guess is that there are only about 5 teams per class that have a realistic shot at winning state.