Yesterday Kansas wrapped up its early-season tournament, going 2-1 in Orlando to finish third. The team defeated North Texas and Iona, but it lost to Dayton on a buzzer beater. Here’s what the stats say about the way KU played.

Good Offense, Bad Defense

In the three games over the weekend, KU scored at a pace of 1.165 points per possession, but gave up 1.049 points per possession. Let’s start with the offense. The team didn’t shoot great from outside of easy baskets in the paint (34% on 3, 59% on FT’s), but got itself a ton of great looks with good transition play and solid half-court offense. Not many defenses will be able to slow down this team with its versatility. They’d need too many offensive talents to have off-nights.  

On the other side of the ball, Kansas did show some good defense at times, forcing 50 turnovers in the three games, but the Hawks gave up too many easy baskets considering the opponents. With North Texas, Dayton, and Iona all having offensive ratings in the 100’s, KU should have been below 1.000 points per possession allowed over the course of three games. Coming in to the season, the defense was the big question mark. Following the Orlando tournament, this question has only grown. It isn’t a question of depth, size, or athleticism. The potential is there. But the defensive skill is lacking. The discipline isn’t fully developed. Coach Self will harp on this all year, because if he can find guys who can defend while maintaining the scoring ability we’ve seen so far this team can have a great year.

Rotation Reminds Open

Coach Self played all 12 scholarship players in all three games in Orlando, and each one of these 12 got at least 9 minutes in at least one of the three games. This is very rare for Self, which got me to thinking how to best measure roster depth and dispersion of minutes.

One way to measure how spread out the team’s minutes are is to use a modified form of the Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI). This index is used in economics, but we can modify it for our purposes. Basically, if the number is 1.0, this means a team would never sub (play 5 players all 40 minutes). A team which played 10 players 20 minutes each would be at 0.5. Any realistic number for a basketball team will be in between these values, with numbers closer to 1.0 meaning less substitution. So far for this year, KU’s HHI is at 0.585. As a comparison to a past KU team with limited depth, the 2018 team had an HHI of 0.754. Self never plays 10 guys throughout the course of a season, let alone 11 or 12. But aside from the top 3 or 4 players, it isn’t easy to see who should get more minutes at this stage. Expect this HHI to stay relatively low (close to 0.600) for at least the non-conference season.

Player Rankings from Orlando

Below are the per game Adj. PPG +/- scores for the Orlando tournament:

• Braun                   +3.91
• Martin                  +2.73
• Agbaji                   +2.71
• McCormack        +2.49
• Yesufu                  +0.67
• Adams                  +0.16
• Wilson                  +0.05
• Clemence            -0.95
• Pettiford              -1.48
• Lightfoot              -1.51
• Harris                    -2.54
• Coleman-Lands -4.55
• TEAM                    +1.99

Any surprises here from your expectation are due to defensive performance. David McCormack battled through a couple poor offensive performances before playing well against Iona, but it was his defense which netted him a positive weekend. On the flipside it was Mitch Lightfoot’s poor defense, particularly in the Dayton game, which caused his negative score. The TEAM played slightly above bubble level, dragged down by its lackluster defense.

The Season Thus Far

Ochai Agbaji: +6.83 Offense -0.02 Defense +6.81 Total. 5 positive games, 1 negative game. 3 MVPs.

Agbaji is playing nearly 7 points a game better than a KU-level replacement player. Even though he cooled off some during the three-game stretch in Orlando, he is averaging 22.5 points per game and continues to show adeptness at scoring the ball. The team would not nearly be as good without his improvement, so we should all be glad he came back to Kansas for his senior campaign. His only negative performance was against Iona, when he gave up nearly as many points as he scored and didn’t win enough possessions on defense. Overall, his defense has been stingy with regards to allowing points, but his defensive rebounding has been non-existent. Given his size, quickness, vertical, and length; there is no reason for him to be struggling to win defensive possessions following a missed shot or loose ball.

Christian Braun: +4.19 Offense -0.88 Defense +3.31 Total. 6 positive games, 0 negative games. 1 MVP.

CB is the only Jayhawk to post a positive score in each of the first 6 games, and was the team’s MVP in Orlando. He was also the only Jayhawk to make the all-tournament team. He is KU’s second-best scorer, assist-man, and offensive rebounder. He is scoring inside the arc more than he has in past seasons, making him the most efficient player on KU’s offense. Defensively, he is playing worse than in prior seasons. He is doing well at winning defensive possessions on missed shots/turnovers, but he is giving up too many baskets to his opponent. Basically, he is playing opposite of how Agbaji is playing on defense. Like Agbaji, Braun is taking on an extra load on the offensive end which is likely hurting the amount of energy he has for defense. Braun’s game-to-game consistency has been remarkable, posting positive scores in all six games. His best game this season, and only MVP, was the Dayton game.

Zach Clemence: +1.68 Offense -0.43 Defense +1.25 Total. 4 positive games, 2 negative games.

With all the questions about the rotation moving forward, Zach Clemence’s place is a big one. He has been the team’s best performer on a per-possession basis, with the only question being if he can keep up that level of efficiency playing 15, 20, or 25 minutes a game instead of the 5.6 he plays now. Coach Self seems content to play him minutes in games which appear to be a good matchup, not wanting to expose him to quicker or more physical opponents. Clemence is an underrated rebounder and a tremendous shooter. We should hope to see more from him, because he’s performed in the minutes he’s seen so far.

Remy Martin: +3.17 Offense -2.20 Defense +0.97 Total. 4 positive games, 2 negative games.

Martin has performed on offense as well as expected, but like others on the team it is his defense which is forgettable. It’s not a good habit to cherry pick in statistics, but his value score looks much better once you exclude his Stony Brook performance in which he was hampered by a back injury. Defensively, Remy is a much better rebounder than you might think given his size. He’s also very pesky, drawing charges and interrupting ball-handlers. He’s won double the defensive possessions Agbaji has in 45 fewer minutes, yet despite this activity has given up too many easy looks to his opponent. Thinking strategically, one might wonder if this is partially due to the numerous switches the defense employees. Opponents work the ball around until they find a mismatch, and oftentimes this leads to Remy playing defense in the post. Still, Remy has to play more disciplined on the defensive end and force opponents into tough shots even when he’s in a defensive mismatch. I expect the defensive score to improve, but it isn’t likely he will be a positive contributor on that end.

K.J. Adams: +0.04 Offense +0.19 Defense +0.24 Total. 4 positive games, 2 negative games.

Believe it or not, through the team’s first six games K.J. Adams is the only player to play in all games and be positive both on offense and defense. This distinction matters less than being the best player overall, but it still shines a positive light on K.J. who has played hard in the minutes he’s been in. One great attribute he brings is his ability to add value not through scoring, but through hustle plays like rebounds. With so many offensive weapons, the team doesn’t need another scorer as much as it needs someone like Adams to get loose balls, compete, and win possessions.

Jalen Wilson +0.01 Offense +0.04 Defense +0.05 Total. 1 positive game, 2 negative games. 1 MVP.

Jalen Wilson was a welcome sight in the North Texas game, coming back from his suspension to earn team MVP honors despite only scoring 7 points. However, his next two games were less-than-spectacular, and over the course of the tournament he played at replacement level on both ends of the floor. His 13 total points (4.3 per game) in Orlando were surprising for someone who scored well last season. He will need to shoot better to get back to where he should be. One silver lining is that his defense appears to be better than it was last season, but the real test on that end will come against tougher opponents. Coach Self wants to play him more, but for now he hasn’t earned the right to start.

David McCormack +0.80 Offense -0.86 Defense -0.06 Total. 2 positive games, 4 negative games. 1 MVP.

This may sound surprising, but D-Mac’s per-minute offense has been good through 6 games. He has struggled at times, of course, but he played well against Iona and got himself back to where he should be. Despite not being a great defensive rebounder, he does win enough offensive rebounds to add value on that end. His defensive score is improving as well following a solid outing in Orlando. When he plays big inside, he can make it tough for opponents. Had the Dayton buzzer-beater not dropped, we might be talking more about his excellent weak-side block which saved a layup. Nevertheless, it is consistency where McCormack hurts the team. With only 2/6 games being positive, he has too many off-nights. Instead of being great once or twice every five games, the team could use a starting center who is good most nights and average to mediocre on the others. Let’s not write him off, as he is the team’s best interior scorer and will be needed if KU wants to accomplish its season goals.

Mitch Lightfoot +0.73 Offense -1.32 Defense -0.59 Total. 4 positive games, 2 negative games.

Mitch took a step-forward during the off-season on offense. Having never sniffed a positive contribution on offense over one of his previous four seasons, he is comfortably on the plus-side through six games. Even with expected reversion, this should be his best offensive season. Defensively, he has struggled to keep his man from scoring and has lacked discipline staying on his man at times. Lightfoot loves the weakside block as well as stepping in to take a charge, but this can lead to overhelping and easy points for the opponent. Mitch has been more consistent than his counterpart big in David McCormack, and his score is hurt most by the poor outing he had against Dayton.

Bobby Pettiford +0.08 Offense -0.85 Defense -0.77 Total. 2 positive games, 4 negative games.

Pettiford has struggled to find the same type of value he provided against Michigan State, particularly on the defensive end. Undersized, he can give up points by being shot over. He is a solid distributor, but not a great outside shooter yet (0-2 from 3). There are also questions about his health.

Jalen Coleman-Lands +0.25 Offense -1.03 Defense -0.78 Total. 3 positive games, 3 negative games.

JCL had the worst tournament of any Jayhawk, failing to score a point while playing worse defense than he did in prior games. It’s clear his value has to come from outscoring his man…making shots and playing solid perimeter defense. He doesn’t get many defense possessions (zero defensive rebounds so far), and if he continues to play poorly could see his minutes shrink as Jalen Wilson gets better acclimated.

Joseph Yesufu +0.54 Offense -1.39 Defense -0.84 Total. 3 positive games, 3 negative games.

Yesufu is trending in the other direction as Coleman-Lands, as Joe has had his three positive games come in the most recent ones. Despite limited minutes, he has scored in spurts including a season-high 9 points in 12 minutes against Iona. Like others on the team, he is struggling to defend. He doesn’t win defensive possessions, and he is getting scored on at too high a clip.

Dejuan Harris -1.17 Offense -0.16 Defense -1.33 Total. 2 positive games, 4 negative games.

Harris rounds out the 12 players in the rotation, scoring the lowest per game. He hasn’t had any dreadful games necessarily; he just doesn’t score enough to add value. He makes an occasional defensive play, has played good on-ball defense, and takes care of and distributes the ball well of course. Having played the third-most minutes on the team, one would think he could score more points than guys like Mitch Lightfoot or Joseph Yesufu, who’ve only played around 1/3 the minutes Dejuan has. Juan has the worst offensive score on the team, in fact the only negative performance on the season.

Team +10.91 Offense -3.07 Defense +7.84 Total. 5 positive games, 1 negative game.

For the season, the team has played mostly fine aside from one half against Dayton. The team’s offense, particularly the emergence of Ochai and CB, is fun to watch. There’s reason to think Remy Martin and David McCormack will get things going as well. Add in Jalen Wilson and a number of other offensive talents and the team should not have trouble scoring. The 2022 Jayhawks could be Bill Self’s best offense at Kansas. Defensively, the team has only played to an expected, Top 10, Bill Self defense once in six games (North Texas). The new players in particular have had trouble understanding how to defend. Even KU’s two best returning defenders (Ochai and CB) haven’t played up to their capabilities, although some of this has to be due to the energy they’ve expended on offense.

Point Guard Problems

Much has been made about the poor play of Dejuan Harris, but on a per minute basis he has provided more value than both Joseph Yesufu and Bobby Pettiford. Pettiford has only been a slightly positive offensive contributor. Yesufu has been the best on that side of the ball, but his defense has been very poor. Pettiford hasn’t been as poor on defense as Yesufu, but he is still grading out negative by a wide margin which negates his positive contribution on offense. Dejuan Harris has been the best defender of the three, helping to balance out his poor offense.

• Per 60 possessions Adj +/-
• Harris:                   -1.68
• Pettiford              -2.17
• Yesufu:                 -3.15

I don’t see much argument to be made for any of these guards. None of the three have been playing up to KU-level through six games. This doesn’t mean Coach Self should base his rotation on these numbers alone; practice, potential, and other factors should be weighed to determine who plays. Instead of criticizing Self on his rotation at the PG position, the criticism should come down on these three to improve if they want more minutes. Otherwise a rotation of Remy plus three wings and a post might be the team’s best lineup.

After defeating Stony Brook 88-59 last night, KU improved to 3-0 while finishing up the first portion of its schedule. Each season has its own unique flow, and this flow will change as the season progresses. Starting on Thanksgiving Day, KU will play 3 games in 4 days in Orlando. By that Sunday evening, it will have played double the games it has to this point. The flow of the season also changes due to travel, as KU won’t return to Allen Fieldhouse for a game until it faces Missouri on December 11, a gap of 5 games over 23 days away from Lawrence. Lastly, these first three games were the ones without redshirt sophomore forward Jalen Wilson. For these reasons it seems justifiable to take a look back at the season thus far.

Ochai’s Dominance

The most significant part of KU’s season has been the impeccable play of Ochai Agbaji. He has been a scoring machine, accounting for double the points that the second and third-most productive Jayhawks have provided. He has been the team’s leading point producer while maintaining better efficiency than the team average, a tough thing for a scoring guard to do. He is taking more shots, tougher shots than his teammates, but still scoring at a efficient pace. Defensively, he has been the team’s best player as well, giving up an estimated 6.4 points per 60 possessions. After calculating all relevant factors, Ochai is producing an Offense, Defense, Total Adj. PPG +/- of: +9.20, +1.69, +10.89. This is validated by the eye test. Ochai is scoring more at the rim and has gotten adept at driving with his right hand. His jump shot is quicker and more composed, and he has shown the patience to stay aggressive, even when starting out in a slump against Stony Brook. He has accompanied this by playing smart and tough defense, not taking plays off. If there were questions before the season they should be answered now. Ochai Agbaji is KU’s best player.

Offensive Skill, Defensive Mediocrity

Through 3 games, KU is scoring 1.25 points per possession and allowing 0.92 points per. For all Division 1, the average is 0.992. At first glance, it appears that KU is doing well on both ends. And while this is true for the offensive side of the ball, once you adjust for the current strength of schedule these points per possession scores are unimpressive on the defensive side. Simply put, KU will face better teams during the bulk of its schedule. And if these games are marred by some of the defensive lapses we’ve seen, these skilled teams will score more than what Tarleton St. or Stony Brook were able to muster. As a team KU has been +14.69 on Offense and -1.18 on Defense for a Total score of +13.52. If they could keep this pace, this would put them as the third-best Bill Self team (behind 2008 and 2010). However, there are questions as to whether KU can keep its offense so well-tuned; can Agbaji keep scoring this well, will there be a reversion to mean from guys like Clemence, how will the team perform against tougher defenses, etc. The questions on defense also remain. While there should be improvement in some areas, this year’s team has no great individual defenders, a few good ones, and many poor ones. While I don’t see this wide of a gap remaining between offense and defense, there is good reason to think that the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks will win most of its games by outscoring its opponents. But improvements on the defensive end have to come.

A Run of Positive Play

One interesting thing of note is that, along with Ochai Agbaji +10.89, these other three players have made positive contributions in each of the first three games played: Christian Braun +2.69, Jalen Coleman Lands +2.98, and Zach Clemence +3.44. Unsurprisingly, these four players have been KU’s best players during this opening stretch. When we look further into the numbers, each of these four players is adding value on both offense and defense. While three games is not a large period of time, it does show who has earned minutes so far. Consistency is key.

Slow Start, Turning Around?

David McCormack posted his first positive performance against Stony Brook. After a poor game against Michigan St. and an okay one against Tarleton St., McCormack played to the level he is capable of in the season’s third game. With each game he is starting to play more like he did last season. Still, he is -2.63 on the season, a value score he will have to improve upon by consistently strong play.

Rotation with Wilson?

The first chapter of the season, the one without Jalen Wilson, is finished. Each one of the 11 scholarship players has played well at times. Some have played better than others. How does the rotation look moving forward? We can assume that Wilson will get at least 20, and likely closer to 30, minutes each game that remains competitive. Where do these minutes come from? At first, one would think these would be wing minutes that Wilson would get, and the current wings would each play a little less. But Coleman-Lands, Braun, and especially Agbaji have all been solid pieces helping win games. Perhaps Wilson will get some minutes as a small-ball 5, but again that means fewer minutes for Clemence (very good so far), Lightfoot (playing slightly positive thus far), and the guy who will hopefully become the team’s best inside scorer in McCormack. The last option is to play more minute with Agbaji at the 2, basically go to a 1 guard, 3 wings, 1 post look. This would take away minutes from the four-headed point/combo-guard monster of Harris, Martin, Yesufu, and Pettiford. Of these four, Yesufu has played the worst but has so much upside. Martin is battling a back injury which may limit his minutes for some time, but when healthy he is an excellent scorer. Harris distributes so well and has solidified his defense which makes it tough to not have him on the court. Pettiford has been a pleasant surprise, although he has lost his man on defense recently. It isn’t an easy question. And we haven’t even mentioned K.J. Adams, an athletic defender who doesn’t need shots but can do so many little things that this team in can use. Self may eventually shorten his bench, but I expect that to be later in the season rather than sooner.