Kentucky used a hot-shooting first half to cruise to an 18-point win. Kansas could never recover from the large first-half deficit it found itself in. It lost the battle of the boards (41-29) and second chance points (17-6); other than that the game was a more respectable margin.
Mitch Lightfoot earned his first game MVP of the season, battling on the boards and winning three additional defensive possessions by forcing a non-steal turnover. He did a far better job of guarding Kentucky’s center than David McCormack did. Bobby Pettiford played solid defense and even added a late basket in his 10 minutes of work. Dejuan Harris was also respectable. Remy Martin and Jalen Coleman-Lands finished slightly positive in limited minutes off the bench.
On the other side of the value ledger, starting wings Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji had slightly negative value games Saturday night. Neither shot great. K.J. Adams had a tough defensive game at times, but did finish two assisted baskets. Joseph Yesufu had a couple missed shots, a turnover, and a rebound in his few minutes of play.
These players combined were about -2 points unadjusted, meaning that these players cumulatively played well enough to only be down 2 points to Kentucky. Thus the reason for the blowout was largely due to the poor play of the next two players, Jalen Wilson and especially David McCormack.
Wilson had a poor shooting game, whereas his counterpart 4 man (Brooks) had a career-high 27. Wilson did grab 8 rebounds, but it was his second-worst game of the season once adjusted for opponent. David McCormack was outplayed by Kentucky’s center (Tshiebwe), as he gave up 16 points in only 15 minutes of court time. It was McCormack’s second-worst game of the season, and his second very poor game in a row.
In closing, no one played great for Kansas, but the reason for the blowout loss was primarily due to the 4 and 5 positions. Both were constantly out of position on defense, and didn’t make enough plays to recover.
Mitch Lightfoot competed well against Kentucky, earning him team-MVP honors.
With 5:04 left in regulation, Remy Martin checked out for the final time against Texas Tech on Monday. Although we didn’t know it at the time, the game would last 15:04 due to 2 overtimes being needed, and it would be Dejuan Harris and not Remy Martin getting the PG duties. When Martin left the game, KU was up 8. The Hawks would be outscored by 5 the rest of the way, first giving up an 8-point lead in regulation and then needing a second overtime to avoid losing the game.
Martin’s playing time, or lack thereof, down the stretch certainly had Jayhawk fans scratching their heads. Coach Self was even asked about this during his press conference. He responded that he didn’t know who to take out if he put Remy in, even insinuating that he didn’t consider removing Harris by noting he couldn’t play two small guards together due to defensive mismatches.
Those wanting to see Martin finish the game pointed out +/- differentials to justify their arguments. Martin was +9 and Harris -8 on Monday night. But even those using +/- acknowledged its limitations and uselessness over a small sample size of 1 game. *
*Really the sample size isn’t 1 game, but the 85 possessions the game featured, or perhaps the 50 or 60 possessions that Martin or Harris actually played. Nevertheless, we would want to see more possessions (closer to 1,000) against similar competition than what we saw on Monday.
The eye-test certainly bolsters the argument for Remy. He was quick, aggressive, and made countless plays despite only scoring 4 points (the same total as Harris). The team seemed to have more offensive flow with Martin running the show. On the other hand, the eye-test runs into the same problem as +/-. Yes, Remy played better on Monday night. But what about the whole season? Just a few days prior, Martin had a rough game against Kansas St. Given his recent health issues and bouts of inconsistent play, how long do you want to gamble with someone who has overperformed in this one game?
The point of all this, is to ask the question on everyone’s mind…who should play more as the team’s point guard, Dejuan Harris or Remy Martin? To answer this, we will use the stats found on this website to compare how each has played over the first 19 games.
To start, we will fragment each’s games into offensive numbers and defensive numbers. From there, we will combine these into value scores and see which has played better so far throughout the course of the season. Last, we will look beyond the value scores (which are just season averages) and attempt to see who has been more consistent, who has produced more good games, fewer bad games, and so on.
Offensive Stats:
The first offensive stat we will compare is actually PPG. Although this is not an “advanced” stat, it actually correlates quite strongly with overall player value. Players who lead the team in points per game are likely the team’s best natural offensive talent. They are likely to be better shooters than average (from a TS% perspective). They are likely to be better athletes than average and thus are probably better rebounders or passers or defenders than others their position. And they are also good enough to play enough minutes to have the chance at leading the team in PPG.
Through 19 games, Remy Martin is averaging 8.4 points and Dejuan Harris is averaging 5.2. This is a noticeable difference. When we even out the minutes (Harris is playing 4.5 more MPG), this gap is even wider. Martin is averaging 14.0 points per 40, and Harris is nearly half as proficient of a scorer at 7.2.
Next, we will look at shooting efficiency. Effective FG% is a good way to do this, but TS% is even better. Getting to the FT line, and converting, is a skill that needs to be accounted for. Using the formula for calculating TS% developed by CtH, we arrive with Martin at 50.8% and Harris at 46.8% (Sports Reference has Martin at 55.1% and Harris at 50.5%, so the relative difference isn’t affected much by source).
Putting these two stats together, we see that Remy is scoring more than Harris is on a rated basis and is doing so by shooting better. The last comparison we want to make for two guards is assist and turnover numbers. Once again, per 40 numbers from Sports Reference are helpful. Both players are averaging 5.1 assists per 40, whereas Martin turns it over more than Harris (3.0 vs. 2.0 per 40 minutes). CtH’s numbers are similar, but we give the slight ball-handling advantage to Harris.
Offensive rebounds are negligible for small guards. The main components on offense are scoring, shooting, assists, and turnovers. Martin is comfortably the better of the two when it comes to scoring and shooting, whereas Harris is slightly better on the ball-handling stats.
Putting it all together, Martin is producing +0.50 points per game of value more than a KU-level replacement guard would. He hasn’t been great on offense, but he has been serviceable. On the other hand, Harris is well-below where KU fans would expect from a starting or even backup PG. His only value-adding offensive aspect is his low turnover numbers, although this is a product of conservative play which creates little offense.
Martin’s shot frequency is in a normal range, Harris barely shoots.
Defensive stats:
Just as points scored is a strong indicator of player value, the strongest defensive indicator is how many points a player gives up on defense. However, this stat isn’t kept at the official level. It is kept by CtH, so we are in luck. Instead of a per game basis, we will compare Harris and Martin on a per possession basis. This is multiplied up to 60 possessions, so the numbers are per 60.
Harris is allowing 10.8 points per 60; Martin is giving up 12.3 points per 60. Harris has been the more consistent defender and grades slightly above replacement, whereas Martin is slightly below replacement. The next thing to check is possession winners, which are defensive rebounds, steals, and forced turnovers. When we rate per 60 possessions, we see that Martin is better at winning possessions off a defensive stop than Harris (6.6 vs. 4.7). There isn’t much more to say on defense. Once we put everything on this end together, we see that Harris (-0.02) grades out slightly better than Martin (-0.33). Neither are that impressive.
Martin’s defense took a step forward after a solid outing Monday night.
Total Value:
Next comes simple arithmetic. Adj. PPG +/- is just the sum of the Off and Def components.
Adj. PPG +/- scores
Martin is over 1.5 points per game better than Harris. This isn’t an insignificant difference by any means. Harris’s poor offensive output really stands out here. KU-level players should be able to reach a higher level of production.
Consistency:
The last thing to consider is the level of consistency each displays. What are each’s highs and lows? To answer this, we will take each’s best three games and worst three games using value score, adjusted to opponent.
Harris has both the best and worst overall game between the two. He also has the worst second and third lowest scores, whereas Martin has the second and third best scores in comparison. It should be noted that Harris has played 19 games, but Martin has only played 16. This is partially the reason Harris has lower-scored games. Of course, playing in fewer games works against Martin on the plus side. But generally Martin’s highs and higher and lows lower than Harris.
Team MVP’s is another way to compare. Harris’s +4.98 score against Iowa State (including the game winner) was the best of any Jayhawk that night. Martin has yet to register a team MVP this year. Each player has had one game where he was more valuable than the team’s margin of victory; Harris +4.98 in that 1-point win over Iowa State and Martin +5.42 in that 3 point Texas Tech win. On the other side, Harris scored -4.36 against Dayton (in a 1-point loss) and Martin has not had a score lower than the margin of defeat in any of KU’s losses so far this season.
We can also look at the number of positive games vs. negative games using value score. Harris has had 6 positive games and 13 negative games, meaning 32% of the games he plays in add value to KU. Martin is 8 positive and 8 negative, which is 50%. Just as with average value score, Martin has been the better player over the course of the season when we use this measure of consistency.
Conclusion:
In summary, Martin is the better offensive player as he is a better scorer and shooter even at higher volumes than Harris. Harris takes care of the ball better and grades slightly higher at assisting, but these are too small to make up for the scoring/shooting value difference.
On defense, Harris is better at not giving up points, whereas Martin’s rebounding is superior (Harris gets more steals/forces more turnovers). These factors mean Harris has more defensive value.
In total, Martin has been worse than advertised yet still a consistently better player than Harris. I don’t recommend changing the starting lineup, but the closing lineup, that is the one down the stretch in a close important game should include Martin as the PG and leave Harris on the bench.
Ochai Agbaji’s career high of 37 points was matched by solid defense.
Game Summary:
For the second consecutive game, Ochai Agbaji had the best game of his career. Finishing with 37 points, Ochai only gave up 9 points on defense, a stout number in 46+ minutes of play. Agbaji also grabbed 7 defensive boards, including a few clutch ones in double-OT. Remy Martin had the second best game of any Jayhawk. Despite scoring only 4 points, Martin only gave up 2 points, and produced additional value with 6 assists and 3 forced-turnovers. His energy really sparked the Jayhawks, and hopefully there is more to come.
Coleman-Lands didn’t play a ton, but he was solid in his nearly 5 minutes of play. He made a jump shot while not giving up points on defense. Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson, in 48+ and 47+ minutes each, had slightly positive contributions overall. Both had nice plays toward the end of the second OT, sealing the win for the Hawks.
K.J. Adams has the most misleading score, as he was guarding Tech’s Bryson Williams for most of the time he played. Adams gave up 9 points (3 off a banked in jump shot), but scored 6 of his own to go with 6 rebounds and 0 misses/turnovers. Unlucky defense will even itself out over the course of a 35 game schedule, and Adams showed he is capable of playing at this level moving forward.
Mitch Lightfoot was in foul trouble for much of the night, and ended up giving 9 points while only scoring 4. He’s had better outings for sure. David McCormack had his second-worst performance of the season, partially due to Bryson Williams playing outstanding. Still, whenever Tech needed a pop-out 3 they did so going against McCormack. Big Dave also failed to collect important defensive rebounds in crucial times.
Last, Dejuan Harris had a poor outing on both ends. He has produced 4 consecutive negative games since hitting the game-winning shot vs. Iowa St., his worst performance being against Texas Tech.
The team’s score of +5.62 was about 4 points below expectation, as you’d want KU to win a bit more comfortably than they did. KU built up a 12 point lead with about 6 minutes to play, and it was still 8 before Tech won a few offensive rebounds off missed free throws and converted to cut the lead to 4. Personnel questions were also abundant; KU seemed to struggle once Martin came out for good with 5:04 left in regulation. The final 15:04 were played by Harris as the sole ball-handling guard, and KU was -5 in that stretch.
Ochai Agbaji had his best career performance and earned his 7th MVP of the season in a comeback of epic proportions
Game Recap:
Kansas was able to battle back from 17 down early in the second half to beat K-State once again at Bramlage. Ochai Agbaji scored 29 points, most of them unassisted, and played fairly solid defense as well. His value score of +16.09 is the highest this season. Jalen Wilson was nearly just as good in the second half, as he finished with 16 points and 10 rebounds on his way to another solid outing. His +7.29 score is his fourth +5.00 or better score in his past five games, showing himself to be the valuable piece he was projected to be before the season. The only other two positive contributors were Mitch Lightfoot and Christian Braun, although neither had great games.
Surprisingly David McCormack had a negative performance, and this was largely due to his first half defensive effort. He played a fine second half for the most part. Dejuan Harris had a better game than his numbers indicate; he was the victim of fine shooting by K-State’s Nijel Pack (35 points, 12-18 FGs). Coleman-Lands and Adams each played sparingly and each gave up points without scoring himself.
Remy Martin is officially a problem. The transfer super-senior had an Off_Eff of 0.48 while giving up a 2.60 Def_Eff. He was missing shots while getting scored on.
Jalen Wilson and Christian Braun led the Jayhawks to their fourth conference win with efficient offense and solid defense. Kansas also got positive contributions from Mitch Lightfoot and David McCormack, and Ochai Agbaji came back from a poor first half and wrist injury to make big plays down the stretch. KU’s small guards each had poor showings. Remy Martin did not play well in his return, and Dejuan Harris was outplayed by Oklahoma’s guards for most of the night. Yesufu gave up a bucket in his 2 minutes of game action. K.J. Adams posted a negative value game for the first time since Missouri.
The team’s score of +8.33 is slightly below their season-average (12th best of 17 games so far), yet was still good enough to get a win.
Jalen Wilson earned his second team-MVP honors with his 16-point performance in Norman.
Ochai Agbaji earned his 6th team-MVP of the season, scoring 20 points as well as playing great defense.
Game Summary:
Ochai Agbaji was the overlooked player in KU’s 85-59 win, as 20+ point games are quite common for him now. However, it was Och’s defense which made him so valuable, only allowing 2 points the entire game. Och’s value score against the Mountaineers is the highest game performance of any Jayhawk this season. Of course, the performances of David McCormack (19 points, 15 rebounds) and Jalen Wilson (23 points, 8 rebounds) were a welcome sight to KU fans. The two best returning offensive players from last season finally got going, showing how high the team’s ceiling can be if everyone is playing well. Wilson’s performance was tempered somewhat by poor defense, but for the season he has shown enough improvement on that end to make one think that the last game was a one-off performance. Other positive performers included K.J. Adams, Jalen Coleman-Lands and Chris Teahan.
On the other side of the value-ledger, Christian Braun struggled to finish at the rim in the first half and had his second consecutive negative-value performance after starting the season with fourteen positive games. Another notable would be the play of Joseph Yesufu, who got more minutes Saturday than he typically sees. While his value score wasn’t pretty, he did make some athletic plays, making one think that he is due for a breakout game and some positive-value performances in the future.
With a team score of +22.54, KU broke a slump of poor games with its second-best opponent-adjusted performance of the year (Missouri).
Dejuan Harris earned his first career team MVP against Iowa State
Game Summary:
Not only did he hit the game-winner with 7 seconds left; Dejuan Harris was solid on both ends to earn team MVP honors. Ochai Agbaji was poised to win this distinction due to a solid 22-point outing, but his defense down the stretch lowered his value score significantly. K.J. Adams got the start and had yet another positive outing (10 of his 13 game appearances have netted positive value). Despite being benched for most of the game and only scoring 1 point, David McCormack was good on the defensive end and glass. Christian Braun had his first negative-value performance of the season, and Bobby Pettiford returned from injury but looked very rusty.
The team is missing Remy Martin, and frankly David McCormack although the latter is on the coach and not due to injury. Playing worse players at these positions (such as Pettiford/Yesufu or Lightfoot) has unsurprisingly made this team worse. The team is loaded at wing, so giving K.J. Adams a look at the 5 can provide a small bit of value most nights.
Ochai Agbaji had his 5th MVP of the season, tying him for the team lead with Braun
Game Recap:
KU got solid performances from four of its wings: Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Wilson, Christian Braun, and even K.J. Adams. These four accounted for over 71% of the team’s points in only about 52% of the team minutes. On defense, these four only have up 40% of the 75 points the Jayhawks allowed Texas Tech. Ochai Agbaji was the team MVP, scoring 24 points and ending with a 1.34 offensive efficiency rate.
Once again, it was KU’s guard and post positions which were a let-down on both ends of the floor. David McCormack failed to follow up his Oklahoma State performance with a good game, as did Dejuan Harris. Remy Martin 12:25 of game play were the fewest in a game this season (aside from the George Mason DNP-injury), making one wonder if he is fully recovered.
The team score of 0.19 was the fourth-worst on the season.
David McCormack was the team’s most valuable player against Oklahoma State on 1/4/2022, his second MVP of the season. Dejuan Harris played the best defense, giving up only 4 points in 31 minutes.
Jalen Coleman-Lands lit it up for 20 points on 5-7 3-point shooting. He earned team MVP honors.
In terms of value produced, here are summaries for each player:
Jalen Coleman-Lands +11.82. Not only did he have an incredible shooting game, JCL also played solid defense, only giving up 7 points while grabbing a few rebounds. His first team MVP as a Jayhawk was also the fourth-best individual performance of any KU player this season.
Mitch Lightfoot +5.61. It was a good game for veteran players, as KU’s second-best performer was the 6th year senior. Both efficient on offense and stingy on defense, Lightfoot’s score was only hampered by his poor defensive rebounding effort.
Christian Braun +2.46. CB overtook Agbaji as Kansas’ best overall player in this game, although the two are statistically even at this point. He didn’t have a great game, but still played well by knocking down late free throws.
Jalen Wilson +1.96. J-Wil rebounded very well to make up for a poor shooting game. He also defended well, in fact all of KU’s wings have played good defense this season.
Ochai Agbaji +0.95. Agbaji didn’t have a great game offensively, but still defended well and made a nice and-1 on a drive to finish with 11 points. He is a “quiet” defender, in that he doesn’t block shots, grab a ton of rebounds, get many steals, or force many opponent turnovers.
David McCormack -5.62. Bad Dave was back, starting the New Year with only 1 point and a poor value score. He grabbed five offensive rebounds, but never finished any of his put-backs. His defense on the perimeter and interior was worse than Lightfoot’s, which is why Coach Self went with the backup during most of the second half.
Joseph Yesufu – 6.00. With Remy Martin out due to injury, this was a great opportunity for Yesufu to have a break-through game. Unfortunately, it was more of the same. Yesufu’s main issue is on defense, where he gives up both outside shots and drives despite his quickness.
DeJuan Harris -12.62. As good as JCL’s game was, Harris’ outing was bad enough to wipe away enough value from what his teammate added. Harris had a typical offensive game for him, only scoring 4 points, but it was on defense where he struggled, allowing 19 points and multiple 3-pointers. It was a disappointing step-back after his solid performance against Nevada.
TEAM -1.20. KU was 1.20 points worse than a hypothetical bubble-team, who would have been expected to beat George Mason at home by about 10.20 points (for this season, think Creighton as a bubble-team). Looking at the performances, KU got more-than-enough from its super seniors Coleman-Lands and Lightfoot. But it was the three players who had terrible games that held them back. With conference play beginning Tuesday, these types of performances will result in losses.
/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gray/4V5PD5SGMJGP5CVJ5YQQOCKJ2Q.jpg)
/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gray/AJARCJ3THNC4FKO6QU6QWGKCGU.jpg)
Charting the Hawks 