KenPom released his preseason ratings earlier in the week. KU is ranked 2nd with a 26.31 AdjEM. This was very close to the player build-up model that I predicted (26.16). See below:
Player
Off_PG
Def_PG
Tot_PG
Per100
% Min
Dajuan Harris
+0.20
+2.30
+2.50
+4.20
85.1%
Elmarko Jackson
-0.10
+0.20
+0.10
+0.20
68.1%
Kevin McCullar
-0.25
+1.96
+1.71
+3.25
75.1%
K.J. Adams
+0.45
+0.48
+0.93
+1.90
70.0%
Hunter Dickinson
+3.80
+1.38
+5.18
+9.25
80.0%
Nicolas Timberlake
+0.62
-0.31
+0.32
+0.75
60.0%
Johnny Furphy
-0.54
-0.30
-0.84
-6.30
19.1%
Jamari McDowell
-0.62
-0.10
-0.72
-6.02
17.1%
Parker Braun
-0.52
+0.13
-0.39
-2.75
20.1%
Michael Jankovich
+0.15
-0.30
-0.15
-5.00
1.4%
Justin Cross
-0.08
-0.08
-0.16
-6.50
1.0%
Chris Carter
-0.08
-0.08
-0.16
-6.50
1.0%
Wilder Evers
-0.12
-0.13
-0.25
-10.00
0.5%
Patrick Cassidy
-0.20
-0.10
-0.30
-12.00
0.5%
Dillon Wilhite
-0.12
-0.13
-0.25
-8.00
1.0%
Zach Clemence
Charlie McCarthy
TOTAL
+2.97
+5.53
+8.51
+12.16
100.0%
Projected to Redshirt
Incoming transfer and Big 12 preseason player of the year Hunter Dickinson is the highest projected value player by far. This is due to his consistency while at Michigan as a prolific scorer and solid rebounder. Coach Self has called him the best offensive big man he’s had while at Kansas. In addition, knock on wood, Hunter has been healthy, having missed only 2 games in 3 seasons at Ann Arbor.
If there’s one question mark, it comes on the defensive end. Given the tendency among the game to play pick-n-roll ball and bring out the opponents’ 5-man, it can be a certainty that Dickinson will play plenty as the pick-n-roll defender and away from the basket. If teams can exploit him on this, it could bring down his score on the defensive end quite a bit. What Dickinson has going for him on defense is his rebounding prowess and low foul rates.
Dajuan Harris is projected to be KU’s second most-valuable player. His durability (estimated 85.1% minutes played) will be called upon now that KU is down to only 2 real ball-handlers (Elmarko Jackson) among its scholarship players. We project a slight improvement from last season’s Dejuan on both sides of the ball. He should see an increased number of 3-point attempts thanks to the departures of Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson.
Kevin McCullar’s unexpected return to Kansas will see him in an expanded roll, yet his shooting (which has consistently hovered around 30% from 3) is still a question. If he shoots as well as he has been rumored to in practice, he could make the highest leap of anyone. McCullar’s value comes in his defense; namely steals and rebounds. He defends adequately one-on-one but will give up an occasional basket.
K.J. Adams is sliding down to the 4 after playing the 5-spot primarily last season. He is even less of a shooter than McCullar, although with a true 3-point shooting center in Dickinson, having a power forward who can shoot is less of a requirement for spacing-purposes. K.J.’s strength and quickness will get him more baskets than you’d otherwise think by just watching his game. He gets putbacks, makes nice cuts to the rim, and will get the occasional alley-oop. His defense could also take a step up now that he will be guarding opposing 4 men instead of the 5’s.
The next two names are battling to be the 5th starter at the off-guard position. Nicolas Timberlake has a slightly higher prediction, but everyone agrees Elmarko Jackson has the higher ceiling. Jackson is predicted as a first-round pick by many NBA mocks, something that hasn’t been taken into consideration in these preseason numbers but still should be in the back of your mind. For Timberlake, he’s the team’s best shooter and should generate spacing on the offensive end. His defense might not be great, but wings who move their feet and don’t fall asleep on defense usually grade out well.
Jackson’s rating is purely based upon his incoming class rating. He should have a fine season, but true freshmen rarely perform at the star level. Anything around replacement level will be enough to help this team. Jackson has Harris to guide him and guys like Dickinson and Adams to play through. He should thrive being around so many veterans.
After the top 6, the projected skill level drops. This isn’t the end of the world; KU’s top 6 should get the majority of minutes. Even including minutes played during blow-out non-conference games, KU’s top 6 is projected to get 87.7% of the total court-time. But the remaining 3 scholarship players will be called upon to do enough while filling in for the starters.
Parker Braun’s Per100 numbers are expected to tick up from last season (as he plays for a better coach in a better system and is a year older), and because his minutes should tick down it will help his per game mark assuming he gets into each game. He should perform comparably to Zuby Ejiofor last season. Braun was a good pickup given the departure of Ejiofor and fellow big man Ernest Udeh. Despite gaining Dickinson, KU got worse regarding its depth on the inside. It’s unfortunate the Jayhawks couldn’t hold on to a blossoming player like Udeh, but it’s part of the process with the portal. Key pickups can mean losing a young talent that doesn’t want to wait to play.
The remaining two wings are projected to be well-below bubble-level. As freshmen, Jamari McDowell and Johnny Furphy wouldn’t normally be asked to do much aside from bring energy and play their roles while filling in for the likes of McCullar, Adams, Jackson, and Timberlake. However, Coach Self has mentioned both as potential starters still. While this is likely coach-speak, it’s good to hear that both are holding their own.
Jamari McDowell’s score is predicated on his incoming rank. We see him as a better defender but less polished scorer than Furphy. Both players are quite athletic and have decent size/length. McDowell is one of the remaining initial commits that is projected to get playing time thanks to the departure or dropped commitments from numerous other wings. Furphy is a late signee who jumped on board after it was apparent that KU needed wing depth and has been compared to Svi.
Each player’s Per 100 predictions are better than M.J. Rice and Bobby Pettiford’s seasons last year. But it is tough to see either being key cogs in the rotation. Freshmen traditionally are either role players or one-and-done types.
The Jayhawks are redshirting Zach Clemence, a move confirmed by Bill Self many times. This means only 9 scholarship players. However, there are also 7 walk-ons with a few being skilled and athletic former scholarship players at other schools. Justin Cross and Chris Carter are those who played elsewhere before being invited walk-ons. Sharpshooter Michael Jankovich is also a name to watch out for. With the limited depth, a frustrated Self might turn to Jank in a pre-conference if he needs a floor-spacer. He’s done something similar with Clay Young in 2018.
The TEAM score is projected to be +8.51, a number that gets them an estimated KenPom AdjEM score of 26.16 (or 0.15 points away from KenPom’s own preseason mark). This mark is just an average estimate, one that includes the possibility of injury or underperformance from key pieces. A TEAM score of this projection would earn a 2-seed most often, of course depending on how many wins and losses the team has in close games. KU’s defense also should grade out better than its offense, something that KenPom predicts (KP has KU as the #9 offense and #1 defense).
Recent predictions have underestimated KU’s best players (2023 Jalen Wilson, 2022 Ochai Agbaji) while overestimating the contributions of the bench. This year we made sure to keep Dickinson higher than +5.00 despite questions on his defense. Another decision we made is to have each of KU’s top 9 players be expected to play in the full allotment of games. Perhaps Furphy or McDowell will DNP a few games but it shouldn’t be too many…barring injury.
It should be an exciting season. KU is bringing in the nation’s top transfer, fan-favorite veterans, a “legacy” transfer in Parker Braun, and solid freshmen with different skillsets.
An ongoing power rating has been created to predict all high school games between 11-man teams in the state of Kansas. This rating will be updated weekly following all the games that week. Additionally, a sampling of game margin predictions will be posted each week along with the model’s cumulative accuracy for all games once games results are final. Predictions will be listed as if you were offering a bet (so -7 would mean that team is favored by 7 points). Below will be a running list of predictions/results by week.
Week 13 (State Championship Games)
6A: Gardner Edgerton (-5) 60% vs. Derby
The Trailblazers had an impressive 35-3 win against Blue Valley in last week’s state semifinals, and will face Derby for the title. Derby defeated Manhattan by 2 and Washburn Rural by 1 in its last two games, both of which were road victories. At only 5 points, this game is projected to be closer than one might expect.
5A: Mill Valley (+2) 47% vs. Kapaun Mt. Carmel
Mill Valley won on a controversial decision, essentially getting a final try that wouldn’t have happened had its QB been called down during the prior play, in its 48-47 win at Blue Valley Southwest. The Jaguars look to make it 5 titles in a row as a slight underdog to an impressive Kapaun Mt. Carmel team. Kapaun, at 11-1, has won 3 consecutive playoff games by 10 points or fewer. Expect this one to be close.
4A: St. Thomas Aquinas (-17) 89% vs. Andover Central
It’s 6-seed vs. 6-seed as Aquinas battles Andover Central. Andover Central had a huge upset win against Wamego (who was 13 point favorites) and will have to pull off a similar thing to win on Saturday. For Aquinas, their big win against Bishop Miege in Week 10 has catapulted the Saints to blow wins in the quarterfinals and semifinals. They are poised to get the title, but there is a reason the games still get played.
3A: Topeka Hayden (+9) 29% vs. Cheney
Cheney knocked off Andale for the second time this season in last week’s semifinals, coming back from a 24-0 deficit to win 28-24. Andale’s state title streak is officially over, but the program is poised to be back next year. What a run. For Cheney, capping this season off with a state title of its own is the goal now. Hayden will be tough, and was the only true threat in the East when the playoffs began (they were given a 79% chance of making state before Week 9). Now that they’ve made state, they’ll just need one great game in Hutch as underdogs to finish the dream season.
2A: Nemaha Central (0) 50% vs. Hoisington
The model has this game as a true 50/50 battle. Both teams took care of business as strong favorites, and one of them will walk away with the hardware on Saturday.
1A: Jefferson County North (+5.5) 38% vs. Conway Springs
Jefferson County North went down to Pittsburg and defeated favored St. Mary’s-Colgan in last week’s semis, whereas Conway Springs took care of business as favorites. This game is within a touchdown spread, with Conway being the favorite.
Weeks 5-12 Model Accuracy:
Winner predicted in 538/622games (86.5%). Average point difference moe: 12.98 points.
Winning percentage by favorite point spread:
0-5 64.1%
5-10 68.3%
10-15 79.0%
15-20 91.7%
20-25 90.6%
25-30 95.7%
30-125 100.0%
Week 12 (Playoff Semifinals)
6A-East: (6) Blue Valley @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-15) 85%
6A-West (3) Derby @ (1) Washburn Rural (+8.5) 30%
State Odds: Gardner Edgerton 52.4%, Derby 35.2%, Washburn Rural 8.5%, Blue Valley 3.9%
5A-East: (4) Mill Valley @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-5) 61%
State Odds: Hoisington 51.4%, Nemaha Central 38.9%, Sabetha 7.8%, Norton 1.9%
1A-East: Jefferson County North @ St. Mary’s-Colgan (-3) 55%
1A-West: Medicine Lodge @ Conway Springs (-10.5) 75%
State Odds: Conway Springs 44.5%, St. Mary’s-Colgan 28.1%, Jefferson County North 18.6%, Medicine Lodge 8.8%
Week 11 (Playoff Quarterfinals)
6A:
(5) Blue Valley Northwest @ (1) Gardner Edgerton (-19.5) 91%
(6) Blue Valley @ (2) Olathe North (-8) 69%
(5) Wichita East @ (1) Washburn Rural (+15.5) 14%
(3) Derby @ (2) Manhattan (0) 50%
Current State odds: Gardner Edgerton 34.7%, Wichita East 33.4%, Derby 13.4%, Manhattan 13.0%, Olathe North 3.9%, Washburn Rural 1.0%, Blue Valley 0.4%, Blue Valley Northwest 0.3%
5A:
(9) Topeka Seaman @ (4) Mill Valley (-9) 72%
(6) Shawnee Heights @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-16) 87%
(4) Maize South @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-4.5) 59%
(11) Maize @ (2) Goddard Eisenhower (-14) 83%
Current State odds: Blue Valley Southwest 32.4%, Kapaun Mt. Carmel 25.0%, Mill Valley 14.9%, Goddard Eisenhower 12.6%, Maize South 12.6%, Topeka Seaman 1.5%, Shawnee Heights 0.8%, Maize 0.2%
4A:
(5) Tonganoxie @ (1) Atchison (+7) 33%
(7) Basehor-Linwood @ (6) St. Thomas Aquinas (-10.5) 76%
(4) Wellington @ (1) Wamego (-26) 94%
(7) McPherson @ (6) Andover Central (-7) 67%
Current State odds: Wamego 39.5%, St. Thomas Aquinas 25.7%, Tonganoxie 21.6%, Atchison 5.4%, Andover Central 4.3%, Basehor-Linwood 2.8%, McPherson 0.6%, Wellington 0.08%
3A:
Holton @ Frontenac (+8) 37%
Topeka Hayden @ Parsons (+18.5) 92%
Cheney @ Clay Center (-3.5) 60%
Wichita Collegiate @ Andale (-15.5) 85%
Current State odds: Andale 51.9%, Clay Center 18.9%, Topeka Hayden 18.6%, Cheney 7.5%, Wichita Collegiate 3.0%, Holton 0.1%, Parsons 0.08%, Frontenac 0.01%
2A:
Sabetha @ Humboldt (+12) 21%
Osage City @ Nemaha Central (-26.5) 94%
Southeast of Saline @ Hoisington (+9) 29%
Ellsworth @ Norton (+6.5) 34%
Current State odds: Southeast of Saline 48.1%, Nemaha Central 31.3%, Hoisington 12.4%, Sabetha 3.7%, Ellsworth 3.7%, Norton 0.7%, Humboldt 0.1%, Osage City 0.06%
1A:
St. Mary’s-Colgan @ St. Marys (+7.5) 32%
Olpe @ Jefferson County North (-14.5) 84%
Conway Springs @ Marion (+9.5) 28%
Medicine Lodge @ Valley Heights (-2) 53%
Current State odds: Conway Springs 35.1%, St. Mary’s-Colgan 27.6%, Jefferson County North 13.0%, Valley Heights 6.7%, St. Marys 6.7%, Marion 6.2%, Medicine Lodge 4.5%, Olpe 0.2%
Week 10 (Playoffs Round of 16)
Week 10 is when the Playoffs really begin. There will be a total of 48 games played between the six classes to determine which teams will be quarterfinalists this year. With Week 9’s games being decided by an average of 33 points, Week 10’s matchups will be far more competitive. The average expected margin of victory is 14.3 points, with 29/48 matchups expected to be within 14 points.
(5) Blue Valley Northwest @ (4) Olathe South (+14) 17%
(6) Blue Valley @ (3) Olathe East (0) 50%
(7) Blue Valley West @ (2) Olathe North (-7) 67%
(8) Junction City @ (1) Washburn Rural (-8.5) 70%
(5) Wichita East @ (4) Wichita Northwest (+1) 48%
(6) Lawrence @ (3) Derby (-25.5) 94%
(7) Lawrence Free State @ (2) Manhattan (-24) 93%
The West is completely up for grabs, with undefeated Washburn Rural sitting as a vulnerable team from here on out. If the Junior Blues can get past Junction City, whichever Wichita City League school wins between East and Northwest will be a tough matchup. In the East, the Sunflower League did not have a great first round of the playoffs (compared to the rest of the state), meaning the chances for Gardner and Olathe North took a hit. Still, one of these two schools should get through and make State.
5A:
(9) Topeka Seaman @ (1) De Soto (-6.5) 66%
(5) Spring Hill @ (4) Mill Valley (+6.5) 34%
(6) Shawnee Heights @ (3) Topeka Highland Park (+42.5) 0%
(10) Lansing @ (2) Blue Valley Southwest (-12) 80%
(9) Great Bend @ (1) Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-15) 85%
(5) Hutchinson @ (4) Maize South (-3.5) 56%
(11) Maize @ (3) Liberal (-9.5) 72%
(7) Hays @ (2) Goddard Eisenhower (-3.5) 56%
In the East, Shawnee Heights is the benefactor of a good draw this year, and will play its very over-seeded Highland Park rivals in a guarantee win game. The other games should be close, with 4-time defending 5A champ Mill Valley actually home underdogs according to the model. Should Mill Valley prevail, it could face district rival De Soto. In the West, the Hutch/Maize South is a rematch of a 28-23 Hutch comeback victory. Can the Salthawks do it again? The other games should be competitive as well, watch out for a potential Hays upset of Eisenhower.
4A:
(8) Eudora @ (1) Atchison (+1) 48%
(5) Tonganoxie @ (4) Chanute (+22.5) 8%
(6) St. Thomas Aquinas @ (3) Bishop Miege (-8.5) 71%
(7) Basehor-Linwood @ (2) Louisburg (-10) 74%
(9) Rose Hill @ (1) Wamego (-29.5) 96%
(5) Field Kindley @ (4) Wellington (+4.5) 41%
(6) Andover Central @ (3) Abilene (-7) 67%
(7) McPherson @ (2) Buhler (-10.5) 75%
In the East, the JoCo Catholic School battle continues with Aquinas facing Miege in a rematch from Week 6. Can Randy Dreiling’s Saints pull the upset and end Miege’s reign on 4A? 4A is very competitive in the East this year, with Louisburg and Tonganoxie being very strong potential State participants. In the West, Mac travels to Buhler as an underdog despite winning against the Crusaders a few weeks back. Wamego looks like the team to beat in the West, but it likely won’t fall anytime soon.
3A:
Burlington @ Frontenac (-17.5) 89%
Holton @ Wellsville (-10) 74%
Parsons @ Prairie View (+12.5) 20%
Santa Fe Trail @ Topeka Hayden (-38) 98%
Hesston @ Clay Center (-39) 100%
Holcomb @ Cheney (-17) 89%
Rock Creek @ Wichita Collegiate (-9.5) 73%
Andale @ Scott Community (+19.5) 9%
3A’s games don’t appear to be as competitive despite each home team winning during Week 9’s opening playoff rounds. For East teams, Topeka Hayden is the clear favorite. Andale is looking very strong after dropping a regular season tilt to Cheney. They are nearly 20-point road favorites. If anyone is to knock off Andale this year, it will likely be the winner of Clay Center/Cheney. Both these teams should have a straightforward path to the quarterfinals where they’d face off against each other.
2A:
Humboldt @ Riverton (+8.5) 30%
Sabetha @ Silver Lake (-1) 52%
Council Grove @ Osage City (-11.5) 79%
Riley County @ Nemaha Central (-20.5) 91%
Kingman @ Southeast of Saline (-21.5) 92%
Beloit @ Hoisington (-20.5) 91%
Ellsworth @ Garden Plain (+1) 48%
Thomas More Prep-Marian @ Norton (-12.5) 19.1%
Both Nemaha Central (in the East) and Southeast of Saline (in the West) have a 2 in 3 chance of making State. The brackets are aligning for these two schools to face off, but watch out for potential spoilers in Silver Lake (East) or Hoisington (West).
1A:
Jayhawk Linn @ St. Mary’s-Colgan (-27) 95%
Jackson Heights @ St. Marys (-19) 90%
Central Heights @ Olpe (-26) 94%
Jefferson County North @ Centralia (+3.5) 44%
Marion @ Smith Center (-8.5) 70%
Sterling @ Conway Springs (-12) 80%
Valley Heights @ Sedgwick (+6.5) 34%
Hutchinson Trinity @ Medicine Lodge (-8) 69%
The two Saint Mary’ses are bound to meet. 1A should see some competitive matchups in the weeks to come, but this week watch out for Marion and Smith Center.
Week 9 (Playoffs Round of 32)
The playoffs are here! There will be 96 playoff games across all 6 classifications beginning this Thursday. These write-ups will be a bit different as the full playoff landscape can be seen below. But first, here are a few spreads for the Round of 32:
(6A) Blue Valley North @ Gardner Edgerton (-41)
(6A) Shawnee Mission West @ Olathe North (-59)
(6A) Wichita North @ Washburn Rural (-88)
(6A) Garden City @ Lawrence Free State (-11)
(5A) Kansas City Turner @ De Soto (-73.5)
(5A) Leavenworth @ Spring Hill (-32)
(5A) Wichita West @ Hutchinson (-36.5)
(5A) Maize @ Goddard (-13.5)
(4A) Ottawa @ Tonganoxie (-20)
(4A) St. James Academy @ Bishop Miege (-28.5)
6A Playoffs:
Only one school managed to run the table at 8-0 in the regular season among 6A (and 5A) teams, namely Washburn Rural. Rural is the #1 seed in the West bracket, but has only the fifth best odds to win the West due to how balanced and strong 6A is. Gardner Edgerton in the East has the best odds to win state at 37.1%.
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Washburn Rural
1
0.848
0.325
0.118
0.057
16
Wichita North
8
Junction City
0.852
0.145
0.014
0.001
4
Wichita Northwest
1
0.525
0.36
0.179
0.107
13
Campus
5
Wichita East
1
0.475
0.301
0.141
0.08
12
Wichita South
6
Lawrence
0.914
0.071
0.006
11
Dodge City
0.086
3
Derby
1
0.929
0.434
0.228
0.13
14
Topeka
7
Lawrence Free State
0.76
0.062
0.008
0.001
10
Garden City
0.24
0.008
2
Manhattan
1
0.93
0.551
0.331
0.209
15
Wichita Southeast
1
Gardner Edgerton
1
1
0.913
0.751
0.371
16
Blue Valley North
8
Shawnee Mission Northwest
0.527
9
Shawnee Mission East
0.473
4
Olathe South
0.824
0.156
0.005
13
Shawnee Mission South
0.176
0.012
5
Blue Valley Northwest
0.965
0.826
0.081
0.033
0.003
12
Olathe Northwest
0.035
0.006
6
Blue Valley
0.947
0.458
0.177
0.025
0.003
11
Olathe West
0.053
0.002
3
Olathe East
1
0.539
0.219
0.034
0.004
14
Kansas City Wyandotte
7
Blue Valley West
0.936
0.251
0.111
0.014
0.001
10
Shawnee Mission North
0.064
0.002
2
Olathe North
1
0.748
0.493
0.142
0.034
15
Shawnee Mission West
An additional element practically unique to the 6A Tournament is the fact no Sunflower League team has played against a team outside the league so far. The following first round 6A games are between a Sunflower League team and non-SL team:
Dodge City @ Lawrence
Garden City @ Lawrence Free State
Blue Valley North @ Gardner Edgerton
Olathe Northwest @ Blue Valley Northwest
Olathe West @ Blue Valley
Kansas City Wyandotte @ Olathe East
Shawnee Mission North @ Blue Valley West
We have less confidence in predicting these games. After Week 9, these 7 games alongside one in 5A will help make the rankings stronger for the remaining weeks.
5A Playoffs
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
1
0.883
0.465
0.332
0.185
16
Salina South
8
Salina Central
0.443
0.042
0.005
0.001
4
Maize South
0.967
0.578
0.32
0.232
0.132
13
Bishop Carroll
0.033
0.002
5
Hutchinson
0.977
0.42
0.199
0.121
0.057
12
Wichita West
0.023
6
Goddard
0.822
0.625
0.327
0.106
0.038
11
Maize
0.178
0.086
0.017
0.002
3
Liberal
0.854
0.276
0.075
0.009
0.001
14
Newton
0.146
0.014
0.001
7
Hays
0.508
0.13
0.051
0.006
0.001
10
Valley Center
0.492
0.118
0.045
0.005
2
Goddard Eisenhower
0.963
0.749
0.484
0.182
0.073
15
Andover
0.037
0.003
1
De Soto
1
0.74
0.503
0.29
0.164
16
Kansas City Turner
8
Kansas City Washington
9
Topeka Seaman
1
0.26
0.119
0.039
0.013
4
Mill Valley
1
0.51
0.191
0.073
0.029
13
Topeka West
5
Spring Hill
0.965
0.489
0.188
0.074
0.029
12
Leavenworth
0.035
0.001
6
Shawnee Heights
1
1
0.27
0.096
0.031
11
Kansas City Sumner
3
Topeka Highland Park
1
14
Kansas City Harmon
7
Pittsburg
0.1
0.003
10
Lansing
0.9
0.14
0.062
0.017
0.004
2
Blue Valley Southwest
1
0.856
0.668
0.411
0.241
15
Emporia
Blue Valley Southwest has a good draw and is expected to win state 24.1% of the time. 6-seed Shawnee Heights has a projected 100% chance of winning its first two games as it has Kansas City schools and Highland Park in its quadrant.
4A Playoffs
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Wamego
1
0.985
0.944
0.796
0.36
16
El Dorado
8
Winfield
0.413
4
Wellington
0.635
0.222
0.007
13
Circle
0.365
0.078
5
Field Kindley
0.905
0.673
0.043
0.009
12
Augusta
0.095
0.028
6
Andover Central
0.968
0.438
0.266
0.05
0.007
11
Independence
0.032
0.001
3
Abilene
0.968
0.559
0.396
0.099
0.019
14
Arkansas City
0.032
0.002
7
McPherson
0.862
0.189
0.024
0.002
10
Mulvane
0.138
0.01
2
Buhler
0.973
0.798
0.313
0.043
0.005
15
Ulysses
0.027
0.003
1
Atchison
1
0.545
0.196
0.044
0.016
16
Bonner Springs
8
Eudora
0.905
0.446
0.156
0.033
0.012
9
Kansas City Piper
0.096
0.009
4
Chanute
1
0.117
0.024
0.002
13
Kansas City Schlagle
5
Tonganoxie
0.911
0.837
0.612
0.267
0.155
12
Ottawa
0.089
0.047
0.012
6
St. Thomas Aquinas
0.969
0.263
0.13
0.067
0.034
11
Fort Scott
0.031
3
Bishop Miege
0.951
0.73
0.528
0.396
0.287
14
St. James Academy
0.049
0.006
7
Basehor-Linwood
0.7
0.159
0.025
0.008
0.002
10
Paola
0.3
0.027
0.002
2
Louisburg
1
0.814
0.314
0.182
0.103
15
Labette County
Wamego is now the favorite in 4A with a 36.0% chance to win state given its strength and draw. The three Catholic JoCo schools, who are in the same (strong) league and have played each other, all share the same quadrant meaning only one of Miege/Aquinas/St. James can make it to the quarters. Look out for Tonganoxie and Louisburg in the East as well.
3A Playoffs:
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Clay Center
1
1
0.734
0.452
0.383
4
Clearwater
2
Hesston
0.453
1
Cheney
1
0.861
0.256
0.106
0.07
4
Colby
2
Holcomb
0.605
0.102
0.008
0.001
3
Pratt
0.395
0.037
0.002
1
Wichita Collegiate
0.965
0.685
0.169
0.038
0.021
4
Concordia
0.035
0.004
2
Rock Creek
0.933
0.308
0.039
0.004
0.002
3
Chapman
0.067
0.003
1
Scott Community
1
0.26
0.161
0.047
0.029
4
Smoky Valley
2
Andale
0.916
0.718
0.622
0.35
0.298
3
Hugoton
0.084
0.022
0.009
0.001
1
Frontenac
0.902
0.816
0.172
0.013
4
Girard
0.098
0.052
0.002
2
Burlington
0.894
0.128
0.006
3
Columbus
0.106
0.004
1
Wellsville
0.964
0.786
0.69
0.159
0.012
4
Perry-Lecompton
0.036
0.005
2
Holton
0.905
0.204
0.128
0.013
3
Bishop Ward
0.095
0.005
0.001
1
Prairie View
0.961
0.231
0.009
0.002
4
Baxter Springs
0.039
2
Parsons
0.899
0.73
0.07
0.028
3
Iola
0.101
0.039
1
Topeka Hayden
1
0.982
0.917
0.786
0.184
4
Baldwin
2
Santa Fe Trail
0.787
0.018
0.004
3
Royal Valley
0.213
Powerhouse and 4-time defending champion Andale has the second-best odds this year, with Clay Center being most likely to win at Gowans Stadium among 3A teams. The West is far stronger than the East. Only Topeka Hayden and Wellsville have a greater than 0.05% chance.
2A Playoffs:
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Southeast of Saline
1
0.951
0.753
0.703
0.586
4
Chaparral
2
Kingman
0.824
0.049
0.011
0.005
0.001
1
Hoisington
0.948
0.897
0.234
0.191
0.114
4
Phillipsburg
0.052
0.027
2
Beloit
0.821
0.074
0.003
3
Lakin
0.179
0.002
1
Garden Plain
0.696
0.363
0.215
0.023
0.007
4
Halstead
0.304
0.097
0.039
0.002
2
Ellsworth
0.903
0.525
0.321
0.038
0.013
3
Haven
0.097
0.016
0.003
1
Norton
0.955
0.794
0.39
0.038
0.011
4
Cimarron
0.045
0.007
2
Larned
0.51
0.105
0.017
3
Thomas More Prep-Marian
0.49
0.095
0.014
1
Riverton
0.968
0.213
0.021
0.001
4
West Franklin
0.032
2
Humboldt
1
0.787
0.246
0.032
0.002
3
Cherryvale
1
Silver Lake
0.803
0.368
0.263
0.051
0.005
4
Minneapolis
0.197
0.031
0.013
0.001
2
Sabetha
1
0.601
0.456
0.111
0.014
3
Atchison County
1
Osage City
1
0.814
0.059
0.015
4
Neodesha
2
Caney Valley
0.488
0.088
3
Council Grove
0.512
0.098
1
Nemaha Central
1
0.91
0.873
0.758
0.243
4
Pleasant Ridge
2
Rossville
0.682
0.07
0.054
0.027
0.002
3
Riley County
0.318
0.02
0.012
0.004
Southeast of Saline is the only team with a +50% chance of winning state among all classes. With an 8-0 record and a win against the top team in 3A (Clay Center), the Spartans are a tough team to beat.
1A Playoffs:
Seed
Team
R16
Qtrs
Semis
Finals
Champs
1
Smith Center
1
0.905
0.545
0.415
0.265
4
Belle Plaine
2
Marion
0.527
0.052
0.01
0.004
1
Conway Springs
1
0.857
0.418
0.285
0.161
4
Stanton County
2
Ellis
0.162
0.007
3
Sterling
0.838
0.136
0.02
0.007
0.002
1
Sedgwick
0.888
0.181
0.069
0.008
0.001
4
Salina Sacred Heart
0.112
0.005
2
Valley Heights
1
0.814
0.533
0.193
0.09
3
Remington
1
Plainville
0.593
0.198
0.055
0.007
0.001
4
Hutchinson Trinity
0.408
0.088
0.016
0.001
2
Medicine Lodge
1
0.714
0.327
0.078
0.027
3
Oakley
1
St. Mary’s-Colgan
1
0.945
0.592
0.389
0.204
4
Pleasanton
2
Jayhawk Linn
1
0.055
0.006
3
Uniontown
1
St. Marys
1
0.903
0.391
0.209
0.086
4
Riverside
2
Jackson Heights
0.928
0.097
0.01
0.002
3
Mission Valley
0.072
1
Olpe
1
0.952
0.216
0.037
0.006
4
Northeast
2
Erie
0.146
3
Central Heights
0.854
0.048
1
Centralia
1
0.398
0.282
0.105
0.035
4
Oskaloosa
2
Jefferson County North
0.969
0.6
0.501
0.258
0.12
3
Troy
0.031
0.002
1A should be competitive, with 6 schools having an 8.5% chance of greater of winning state.
Week 8
Hutchinson @ Andover (+36) (Hut by 26)
Basehor-Linwood @ De Soto (-8) (DS by 27)
Olathe South @ Gardner Edgerton (-33) (GE by 32)
Goddard Eisenhower @ Goddard (+5.5) (G by 8)
St. James Academy @ Blue Valley North (+11) (SJA by 19)
Manhattan @ Wichita Northwest (0) (Man by 4)
Olathe North @ Lawrence Free State (+6) (ON by 14)
Spring Hill @ Louisburg (-3) (Louis by 14)
Blue Valley West @ Blue Valley (+7) (BV by 4)
St. Thomas Aquinas @ Blue Valley Southwest (+6) (BV SW by 21)
Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ Wichita Heights (+40.5) (KMC by 12)
Week 7’s results changed the state title landscape considerably across all classes. There were numerous upsets, including Lawrence defeating Lawrence Free State in a rivalry game that was somehow missed in last week’s posted predictions. Olathe East beating Gardner Edgerton by 2 touchdowns was shocking as well. The most important game was Kapaun Mt. Carmel’s strong win versus St. James Academy. This result helped teams outside of the Johnson County area and tilted the balance of power toward the “west” (west here includes teams like Manhattan and Washburn Rural).
State playoff odds going into Week 8. The following win percentages are calculated given the current bracket. With the official brackets being set after the conclusion of the regular season next week, note these percentages can change due to seeding alone. Updated team strengths following Week 8 game results will also effect which teams have the best chances to win state.
4A:
Team
Win %
Bishop Miege
48.6%
Wamego
12.8%
Tonganoxie
12.7%
St. Thomas Aquinas
10.1%
Abilene
6.4%
Louisburg
4.5%
Atchison
2.3%
Buhler
1.4%
Andover Central
0.7%
Basehor-Linwood
0.2%
Eudora
0.2%
Despite winning, Miege’s perceived chances took a hit due to its opponents having poor showings. The current projections still have the Stags as the best team in 4A, but certainly not as invincible as they once seemed.
5A:
Team
Win %
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
31.1%
Blue Valley Southwest
20.7%
Maize South
14.2%
De Soto
8.3%
Hutchinson
8.0%
Goddard Eisenhower
7.3%
Spring Hill
4.5%
Mill Valley
2.9%
Goddard
1.9%
Topeka Seaman
0.5%
Liberal
0.2%
Valley Center
0.2%
Shawnee Heights
0.1%
Kapaun has emerged as Kansas’ best 5A team, but it will still face competition in the West and a tough opponent in the state title game should it get that far. Mill Valley, the reigning 5A champ, is still the wildcard in this class. If the Sunflower League’s strength is undervalued, its state championship odds could be higher than what is shown.
6A:
Team
Win %
Gardner Edgerton
37.7%
Wichita Northwest
18.5%
Derby
13.5%
Manhattan
10.9%
Washburn Rural
8.1%
Wichita East
6.2%
Olathe North
2.5%
Blue Valley Northwest
1.1%
Olathe East
0.7%
Blue Valley
0.5%
Blue Valley West
0.2%
Lawrence Free State
0.1%
Despite being the state’s highest-rated team, Manhattan only has a 10.9% chance of winning state given the current bracket configuration. This is due to it having to face a strong Wichita East team in the Round of 16 and then possible matchup against Wichita Northwest. From there, a matchup against either Derby or Washburn Rural (who beat the Indians already) would have to be won just to get to state. As of today, Manhattan would be only a 1-point favorite against Gardner Edgerton, the best team on the east side of the bracket.
Gardner Edgerton’s loss to Olathe East last week was the second-biggest surprise of the season (behind a 1A matchup of Oskaloosa and McLouth). But the Trailblazers are still the likely #1 seed in the East and should get a good draw.
Week 7
Andale @ Cheney (+13.5) (Che by 6)
Maize South @ Derby (0) (Der by 8)
Olathe East @ Gardner Edgerton (-25.5) (OE by 14)
Maize @ Hutchinson (-19) (Hut by 19)
Blue Valley Southwest @ Kansas City Wyandotte (+106) (BV SW by 50)
Manhattan @ Lansing (+19.5) (Man by 42)
Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ St. James Academy (-1.5) (KMC by 21)
Hays @ Liberal (-6.5) (Hay by 7)
Mill Valley @ Olathe North (-1) (ON by 14)
Blue Valley North @ Blue Valley Northwest (-23.5) (BV NW by 21)
Bishop Miege @ Blue Valley West (+23) (BM by 8)
St. Thomas Aquinas @ Blue Valley (+11.5) (STA by 3)
Many of Week 7’s games featuring top teams should be competitive. In the East, the Mill Valley @ Olathe North game will have big implications on sorting out the second best team in the Sunflower League. This game is paralleled by Maize South @ Derby in the greater Wichita area. It’s great to see potentially-close matchups this late in the season.
Other games of note include the cross-state battle with Kapaun Mt. Carmel traveling to JoCo to take on St. James Academy. Despite SJA’s 1-5 record, they are the slight favorite to one of the best team’s in 5A. Lastly, Blue Valley Southwest is favored by over 100 against KC Wyandotte. One doubts the Wolves run up the score this high, but the fact these programs are estimated to be this different is staggering.
State Playoff Odds
Using the current rankings and current seedings, odds were calculated for who the state champion is likely to be for 6A, 5A, and 4A. These will be updated each week for the rest of the season. Following Week 6/before Week 7, here they are:
6A:
Team
Win %
Gardner Edgerton
78.2%
Lawrence Free State
4.3%
Blue Valley Northwest
3.6%
Wichita Northwest
3.2%
Blue Valley
2.7%
Olathe North
2.5%
Blue Valley West
1.3%
Wichita East
1.1%
Washburn Rural
0.8%
Manhattan
0.7%
Olathe East
0.6%
Lawrence
0.5%
Derby
0.4%
5A
Team
Win %
Blue Valley Southwest
66.5%
Mill Valley
17.4%
Maize South
6.2%
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
4.1%
De Soto
1.9%
Hutchinson
1.3%
Spring Hill
1.2%
Goddard Eisenhower
1.0%
Goddard
0.2%
Topeka Seaman
0.1%
4A
Team
Win %
Bishop Miege
66.9%
St. Thomas Aquinas
31.1%
Wamego
1.0%
Tonganoxie
0.5%
St. James Academy
0.2%
Eudora
0.1%
Abilene
0.1%
The best teams in the state at the top classes have emerged. Gardner nearly has a 4 in 5 chance of winning state, with Blue Valley SW and Miege being around 2 in 3. These numbers can tighten before we get to the later rounds of the playoffs, but it is unlikely that any of these teams fails to be the clear favorite going into, say, week 10. Still, there is only a 34.8% chance that all 3 of these teams win state, so don’t write off an upset completely.
In total, Johnson County could very easily sweep state in the top classes. In fact, the odds say JoCo teams will win all three state titles 78% of the time.
The thing to watch in the final two weeks is seeding, which won’t change the title odds much, but can have a big effect on how far certain teams go in the playoffs. Due to heavily unbalanced schedules, brackets on either side (East or West) can themselves have an easier portion or harder portion depending on how teams finish. For instance, in 5A East, De Soto is currently the #1 seed, opposite both Mill Valley and Blue Valley SW. In order for De Soto to get to state, the best way is to avoid having to beat both of these teams. If the Wildcats can hold on to the #1 seed, they’ll likely have a better draw. This is somewhat different from 4A, where 1-5 St. James Academy is currently the #14 seed in the East. SJA will want to avoid Bishop Miege (currently #3 in East), which is the best team of course. Should SJA jump one spot to #13, they’d be a strong favorite to get to the state semis (assuming Aquinas stays on the other side).
Week 6
Blue Valley West @ St. James Academy (+8.5) (BV W by 3)
Blue Valley Northwest @ Blue Valley Southwest (-1.5) (BV SW by 20)
Bishop Miege @ St. Thomas Aquinas (+4.5) (BM by 12)
Shawnee Mission South @ Mill Valley (-31) (MV by 35)
Gardner Edgerton @ Lawrence (+32.5) (GE by 29)
Bishop Carroll @ Kapaun Mt. Carmel (-43) (KMC by 29)
Goddard @ Maize South (-9) (MS by 21)
Wichita Collegiate @ Andale (-11.5) (And by 21)
Hutchinson @ Campus (+44) (Hut by 28)
Derby @ Maize (+29.5) (Der by 14)
Total games: 107. Avg. Est. Margin: 25.0. (Avg. Margin = 30.3)
Week 6’s offerings have a few “holy wars” featuring Catholic schools against each other. Carroll is down this year and is expected to get blown out to Kapuan. The Miege/Aquinas rivalry game will help determine who the best team in the state is. The cross-class BV Northwest/BV Southwest matchup should also be a close one between 6A and 5A state contenders respectively.
Andale, which hasn’t lost in 4 years, is “only” 11.5 point favorites to Collegiate. Goddard and Maize South share the same record at the moment…the winner goes to 5-1 and the loser to 4-2. This game will have a huge impact on seeding for the west side of the 5A state tournament.
Margins matter. The seeding for each bracket is based on W/L record followed by head-to-head followed by margin. Because head-to-head isn’t often a factor (particularly when there are 3+ teams with same record), beating your opponents by a lot can be the difference between a few places on the seed-line.
Week 5
Olathe North @ Gardner Edgerton (-19.5) (GE by 7)
Blue Valley @ Bishop Miege (-30) (BM by 7)
Blue Valley Northwest @ Blue Valley West (0) (BV NW by 14)
Blue Valley Southwest @ Blue Valley North (+24) (BV WS by 34)
Southeast of Saline @ Clay Center (0) (SE o S by 5)
Mill Valley @ Olathe South (+8) (MV by 56)
Washburn Rural @ Junction City (+21.5) (WR by 21)
Shawnee Mission North @ Lawrence (-22) (Law by 15)
Lawrence Free State @ Shawnee Mission South (+31.5) (LFS by 25)
Emporia @ Manhattan (+68) (Man by 44)
Salina South @ Hutchinson (-54.5) (Hut by 43)
Nickerson @ Andale (-97) (And by 78)
Campus @ Derby (-50) (Der by 48)
Wichita Northwest @ Topeka (+48.5) (W NW by 63)
Kapaun Mt. Carmel @ Wichita Southeast (+67.5) (KMC by 58)
Goddard Eisenhower @ Andover (+38) (G E by 34)
Maize South @ Maize (+12) (MS by 47)
Total games: 107. Avg. Est. Margin: 27.5. (Avg. Margin = 30.1)
These games should cover the best teams in the state and the top candidates to win 6A or 5A. The top billing is Gardner Edgerton, fresh off its blow out win against Mill Valley, hosting a solid Olathe North team. The Maize/Maize South rivalry game will also help sort out the pecking order in 5A on the west side of the bracket. Watch out for the Clay Center/Southeast of Saline 3A/2A matchup. Additionally, Andale will kill Nickerson but can they get to 97? Last year’s score was 108-0. There are a multitude of mismatches in high school football. The average expected score differential for all games this Friday is expected to be nearly four touchdowns.
Another goal is to get playoff predictions in after week 6. By this point, it is possible to simulate the rest of the regular season, create a bracket using the bracketing rules, and then simulate tournaments for each class (at the very least, 6A and 5A). My guess is that there are only about 5 teams per class that have a realistic shot at winning state.
Below is the average, season-ending rating for each 11-man KSHSAA program over the past 10 years1. This rating looks purely at a team’s success in terms of wins and losses, strength of opponent, and margin of victory. It does not directly measure class size or a team’s success in playoffs, although these two factors will correlate strongly with a program’s rating. This becomes a cumulative ranking over this period.
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Derby
56.42
2
Andale
50.21
3
Wichita Northwest
49.97
4
Bishop Miege
49.08
5
St. Thomas Aquinas
48.68
6
Mill Valley
46.82
7
Manhattan
43.83
8
Blue Valley
41.71
9
Maize
38.98
10
Gardner Edgerton
37.63
11
Olathe North
36.26
12
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
36.07
13
Lawrence Free State
35.87
14
Bishop Carroll
34.40
15
St. James Academy
33.81
16
Blue Valley North
32.52
17
Lawrence
32.48
18
Blue Valley Northwest
31.11
19
Blue Valley West
30.18
20
Junction City
30.13
21
Goddard
28.93
22
De Soto
28.84
23
Maize South
27.96
24
Hutchinson
27.32
25
Hays
26.44
26
Shawnee Mission East
26.41
27
Washburn Rural
25.99
28
Olathe West
25.61
29
Shawnee Mission Northwest
25.56
30
Olathe East
25.21
31
McPherson
25.17
32
Olathe South
25.14
33
Great Bend
24.74
34
Wichita East
24.36
35
Topeka Hayden
24.15
36
Andover Central
24.09
37
Basehor-Linwood
23.78
38
Andover
23.04
39
Goddard Eisenhower
22.66
40
Southeast of Saline
22.32
41
Buhler
22.13
42
Cheney
21.83
43
Blue Valley Southwest
21.75
44
Wichita Collegiate
21.70
45
Salina Central
20.78
46
Nemaha Central
19.94
47
Garden City
19.41
48
Topeka Seaman
19.36
49
Olathe Northwest
19.34
50
Dodge City
19.21
51
Scott Community
19.20
52
Wichita Heights
18.92
53
Hoisington
18.32
54
Tonganoxie
18.04
55
Pratt
17.76
56
Louisburg
17.65
57
Valley Center
17.35
58
Pittsburg
17.03
59
Silver Lake
17.02
60
Spring Hill
16.98
61
Sabetha
16.94
62
Wamego
16.15
63
Paola
16.14
64
Holcomb
15.07
65
Holton
14.82
66
Rossville
14.46
67
Topeka
13.54
68
Smith Center
11.96
69
Kansas City Piper
11.78
70
Hesston
11.51
71
Rock Creek
11.32
72
Eudora
9.92
73
Shawnee Heights
9.81
74
Beloit
9.77
75
Riley County
9.69
76
Mulvane
9.24
77
Clay Center
9.23
78
Garden Plain
9.19
79
Marysville
8.91
80
Newton
8.90
81
Liberal
8.68
82
Phillipsburg
8.13
83
Perry-Lecompton
7.97
84
Frontenac
7.41
85
Campus
7.17
86
Conway Springs
6.82
87
Shawnee Mission North
6.62
88
Wellington
6.31
89
Wichita West
5.98
90
Shawnee Mission South
5.84
91
Halstead
5.69
92
Lansing
5.41
93
Arkansas City
5.24
94
Salina South
5.23
95
Centralia
5.01
96
Chanute
4.81
97
Leavenworth
4.35
98
Wellsville
3.82
99
Hugoton
3.19
100
Emporia
2.40
101
Kingman
1.78
102
Wichita South
1.67
103
Augusta
1.63
104
Rose Hill
1.29
105
Olpe
1.28
106
Clearwater
1.26
107
Shawnee Mission West
1.15
108
Colby
0.85
109
St. Mary’s-Colgan
0.00
110
Atchison
-0.21
111
Norton
-0.39
112
Plainville
-0.71
113
Concordia
-1.22
114
Winfield
-1.32
115
Osage City
-1.49
116
St. Marys
-2.15
117
Ottawa
-2.75
118
Fort Scott
-2.77
119
Prairie View
-3.50
120
Labette County
-3.79
121
Jackson Heights
-4.25
122
Sedgwick
-4.63
123
Smoky Valley
-4.88
124
Ellsworth
-5.19
125
Cimarron
-5.21
126
Girard
-6.00
127
Chapman
-6.21
128
Abilene
-6.98
129
Hillsboro
-7.61
130
Galena
-7.83
131
Bonner Springs
-7.84
132
Chaparral
-7.91
133
Hutchinson Trinity
-8.07
134
Valley Heights
-8.12
135
Ulysses
-8.15
136
Circle
-8.27
137
Columbus
-8.44
138
Thomas More Prep-Marian
-8.52
139
Santa Fe Trail
-8.71
140
Wichita Southeast
-9.30
141
Caney Valley
-9.46
142
Jefferson County North
-9.82
143
Field Kindley
-10.89
144
Lyndon
-10.89
145
Inman
-10.94
146
Haven
-11.17
147
Washington County
-11.95
148
Larned
-12.83
149
Moundridge
-12.90
150
Russell
-13.10
151
Burlington
-13.51
152
El Dorado
-13.55
153
Meade
-13.56
154
Kansas City Washington
-13.58
155
Kansas City Schlagle
-13.83
156
Humboldt
-13.96
157
Sterling
-14.25
158
Ell-Saline
-14.30
159
Minneapolis
-14.43
160
Parsons
-14.49
161
Troy
-14.50
162
Lakin
-14.60
163
Goodland
-14.60
164
Jefferson West
-15.01
165
Marion
-16.08
166
Nickerson
-16.86
167
Medicine Lodge
-16.97
168
Topeka Highland Park
-16.98
169
Baldwin
-17.13
170
Independence
-17.57
171
Wichita Trinity Academy
-18.56
172
Council Grove
-19.28
173
La Crosse
-19.47
174
Topeka West
-19.82
175
Royal Valley
-20.26
176
Wabaunsee
-21.40
177
Hiawatha
-21.71
178
Ellis
-21.79
179
Riverside
-22.37
180
Iola
-23.24
181
Maur Hill Prep
-24.04
182
Mission Valley
-24.09
183
Republic County
-24.94
184
Oakley
-25.38
185
Kansas City Sumner
-26.03
186
Anderson County
-26.86
187
Elkhart
-27.66
188
Douglass
-27.93
189
Riverton
-28.79
190
South Sumner
-29.57
191
Wichita North
-29.69
192
Kansas City Wyandotte
-29.99
193
Cair Paravel
-30.60
194
Bishop Ward
-30.85
195
Atchison County
-32.11
196
Remington
-32.24
197
Jayhawk Linn
-32.27
198
Pleasant Ridge
-32.30
199
Salina Sacred Heart
-32.67
200
Kansas City Turner
-32.68
201
Cherryvale
-34.37
202
Baxter Springs
-35.81
203
Doniphan West
-36.08
204
Fredonia
-37.67
205
Chase County
-37.81
206
Ellinwood
-37.87
207
Belle Plaine
-38.04
208
Pleasanton
-38.70
209
Osawatomie
-39.11
210
Eureka
-39.80
211
Southwestern Heights
-41.13
212
Onaga
-41.13
213
McLouth
-41.28
214
Neodesha
-42.45
215
Lyons
-43.71
216
West Franklin
-45.56
217
Central Heights
-46.85
218
Oskaloosa
-47.02
219
Wichita Independent
-47.15
220
Uniontown
-48.48
221
Herington
-48.55
222
Kansas City Harmon
-48.94
223
Horton
-50.11
224
Erie
-50.67
225
Syracuse
-50.69
226
Southeast
-52.15
227
Stanton County
-53.21
228
Northern Heights
-53.29
229
Bennington
-55.24
230
Oswego
-57.29
231
Valley Falls
-58.95
232
Bluestem
-64.32
233
Maranatha Academy
-64.51
234
Yates Center
-65.13
235
Sublette
-65.30
236
Northeast
-69.02
The next ranking looks at a figure called “playoff points,” and sorts from the most to least successful in terms of advancement in the playoffs. The criteria considered are class size and how far in the playoffs a team advances. To add more context, this is also a cumulative ranking, with teams earning “playoff points” to add to their program’s total.
The two considerations, class size and advancement in the playoffs, work hand-in-hand. The best any program can do is win 6A state. Winning 5A is also a very good accomplishment, but because 5A is an easier class to win, it earns a bit less than 6A. And so on down the line, until we get to 1A, which is far less competitive than the upper classes and thus earns fewer points. In tandem, teams that advance in the playoffs (but don’t win state) earn playoff points based on how far they advance. So, a runner-up wins half that the state champion earns, the semifinalists earn half of the runner-up, and so on.
Playoff Points From 2015 – 2024 (10 seasons)
Rank
Team
Playoff Pts
1
Derby
100.00
2
Mill Valley
79.50
3
Manhattan
53.00
4
St. Thomas Aquinas
52.75
5
Bishop Miege
52.00
6
Gardner Edgerton
50.00
7
Andale
43.50
8
Blue Valley North
38.25
9
Wichita Northwest
31.50
10
St. James Academy
27.50
11
Maize
26.25
12
Blue Valley
24.00
13
Olathe North
24.00
14
Andover Central
22.50
15
Blue Valley Northwest
22.00
16
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
21.25
17
Bishop Carroll
21.00
18
Nemaha Central
20.00
19
Topeka Hayden
16.50
20
Olathe Northwest
16.00
21
Salina Central
15.00
22
Goddard
14.50
23
Blue Valley West
14.00
24
Lawrence Free State
14.00
25
Rossville
13.50
26
Hays
13.50
27
Basehor-Linwood
13.25
28
Junction City
13.00
29
McPherson
12.50
30
Sabetha
12.50
31
Washburn Rural
12.00
32
De Soto
11.50
33
Wamego
11.50
34
Blue Valley Southwest
11.25
35
Lawrence
11.00
36
Buhler
11.00
37
Cheney
11.00
38
Shawnee Mission Northwest
11.00
39
Holton
10.50
40
Great Bend
10.50
41
Pratt
9.75
42
Olathe West
9.75
43
Southeast of Saline
9.25
44
Frontenac
9.00
45
Holcomb
9.00
46
Maize South
9.00
47
Shawnee Mission East
9.00
48
Wichita East
9.00
49
Hoisington
8.50
50
Goddard Eisenhower
7.50
51
Hutchinson
7.25
52
Topeka
7.00
53
Tonganoxie
7.00
54
Olathe South
7.00
55
Perry-Lecompton
6.75
56
Topeka Seaman
6.75
57
Arkansas City
6.00
58
Olathe East
6.00
59
Phillipsburg
6.00
60
Smith Center
6.00
61
Olpe
5.50
62
Shawnee Heights
5.25
63
Pittsburg
5.25
64
Beloit
4.75
65
Conway Springs
4.50
66
Spring Hill
4.50
67
Wellington
4.50
68
Dodge City
4.00
69
Centralia
4.00
70
Garden City
4.00
71
Paola
4.00
72
Labette County
4.00
73
Riley County
3.75
74
Scott Community
3.75
75
Mulvane
3.50
76
Kingman
3.00
77
Norton
3.00
78
Clay Center
3.00
79
Emporia
3.00
80
Wichita Collegiate
3.00
81
Andover
3.00
82
Kansas City Schlagle
3.00
83
Valley Center
3.00
84
Wichita Heights
3.00
85
Chanute
3.00
86
Kansas City Piper
3.00
87
Leavenworth
3.00
88
Rock Creek
3.00
89
Marysville
2.75
90
Inman
2.50
91
St. Mary’s-Colgan
2.50
92
Plainville
2.50
93
Hesston
2.50
94
Ottawa
2.50
95
Prairie View
2.25
96
Girard
2.25
97
Smoky Valley
2.25
98
Liberal
2.25
99
Salina South
2.25
100
St. Marys
2.00
101
Wichita West
2.00
102
Galena
2.00
103
Campus
2.00
104
Silver Lake
2.00
105
Wellsville
2.00
106
Louisburg
2.00
107
Shawnee Mission North
2.00
108
Troy
2.00
109
Eudora
2.00
110
Osage City
2.00
111
Sterling
2.00
112
Lansing
1.75
113
Atchison
1.50
114
Humboldt
1.50
115
Parsons
1.50
116
Fort Scott
1.50
117
Bonner Springs
1.50
118
Kansas City Turner
1.50
119
Garden Plain
1.50
120
Augusta
1.50
121
Santa Fe Trail
1.50
122
Circle
1.00
123
Jefferson County North
1.00
124
Kansas City Wyandotte
1.00
125
Oakley
1.00
126
Shawnee Mission South
1.00
127
Wichita South
1.00
128
Council Grove
1.00
129
Shawnee Mission West
1.00
130
Jackson Heights
1.00
131
Caney Valley
1.00
132
Wichita Southeast
1.00
133
Columbus
0.75
134
Concordia
0.75
135
Kansas City Sumner
0.75
136
Topeka Highland Park
0.75
137
Burlington
0.75
138
Jefferson West
0.75
139
Lyndon
0.50
140
Medicine Lodge
0.50
141
Sedgwick
0.50
142
Winfield
0.50
143
Valley Heights
0.50
144
Abilene
0.50
145
Independence
0.50
146
Ulysses
0.50
147
Rose Hill
0.50
148
Anderson County
0.00
149
Atchison County
0.00
150
Baldwin
0.00
151
Baxter Springs
0.00
152
Belle Plaine
0.00
153
Bishop Ward
0.00
154
Bluestem
0.00
155
Central Heights
0.00
156
Chaparral
0.00
157
Chapman
0.00
158
Cherryvale
0.00
159
Cimarron
0.00
160
Clearwater
0.00
161
Colby
0.00
162
Douglass
0.00
163
El Dorado
0.00
164
Elkhart
0.00
165
Ellinwood
0.00
166
Ellis
0.00
167
Ell-Saline
0.00
168
Ellsworth
0.00
169
Erie
0.00
170
Eureka
0.00
171
Field Kindley
0.00
172
Fredonia
0.00
173
Goodland
0.00
174
Halstead
0.00
175
Haven
0.00
176
Hiawatha
0.00
177
Hillsboro
0.00
178
Horton
0.00
179
Hugoton
0.00
180
Hutchinson Trinity
0.00
181
Iola
0.00
182
Jayhawk Linn
0.00
183
Kansas City Harmon
0.00
184
Kansas City Washington
0.00
185
La Crosse
0.00
186
Lakin
0.00
187
Larned
0.00
188
Lyons
0.00
189
Marion
0.00
190
Maur Hill Prep
0.00
191
McLouth
0.00
192
Meade
0.00
193
Minneapolis
0.00
194
Mission Valley
0.00
195
Neodesha
0.00
196
Newton
0.00
197
Nickerson
0.00
198
Northeast
0.00
199
Northern Heights
0.00
200
Onaga
0.00
201
Osawatomie
0.00
202
Oskaloosa
0.00
203
Pleasant Ridge
0.00
204
Pleasanton
0.00
205
Remington
0.00
206
Republic County
0.00
207
Riverside
0.00
208
Riverton
0.00
209
Royal Valley
0.00
210
Russell
0.00
211
Salina Sacred Heart
0.00
212
Southeast
0.00
213
Southwestern Heights
0.00
214
Stanton County
0.00
215
Sublette
0.00
216
Syracuse
0.00
217
Thomas More Prep-Marian
0.00
218
Topeka West
0.00
219
Uniontown
0.00
220
Valley Falls
0.00
221
Wabaunsee
0.00
222
West Franklin
0.00
223
Wichita Independent
0.00
224
Wichita North
0.00
225
Wichita Trinity Academy
0.00
226
Yates Center
0.00
227
Bennington
0.00
228
Moundridge
0.00
229
Cair Paravel
0.00
230
Doniphan West
0.00
231
Herington
0.00
232
Maranatha Academy
0.00
233
South Sumner
0.00
234
Washington County
0.00
235
Chase County
0.00
236
Oswego
0.00
This will expand backward as time permits for score data to be entered into our database. ↩︎
Power Ratings for 2018. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Power Ratings for 2019. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Power Ratings for 2020. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Rank
Team
Class
Record
Rating
1
Mill Valley
5A
9-2
64.94
2
Wichita Northwest
5A
10-1
64.72
3
Andale
3A
13-0
56.68
4
Derby
6A
9-2
53.96
5
Kapaun Mt. Carmel
5A
8-2
53.26
6
Bishop Carroll
5A
8-3
48.27
7
Olathe North
6A
8-2
45.79
8
Lawrence
6A
9-1
45.68
9
Maize
5A
9-2
45.33
10
Wichita East
6A
7-2
42.90
11
Blue Valley
6A
6-2
42.34
12
St. Thomas Aquinas
5A
6-4
39.95
13
Blue Valley North
6A
7-3
38.01
14
Bishop Miege
4A
5-5
37.53
15
Blue Valley Northwest
6A
5-2
37.27
16
Maize South
5A
5-4
36.18
17
Rossville
2A
13-0
35.94
18
Paola
4A
9-1
35.54
19
Junction City
6A
9-2
35.32
20
Gardner Edgerton
6A
5-3
33.77
21
Shawnee Mission Northwest
6A
6-2
33.17
22
Goddard
5A
7-3
33.02
23
St. James Academy
4A
8-4
32.55
24
Topeka Seaman
5A
7-2
32.44
25
Andover Central
4A
7-2
32.23
26
Tonganoxie
4A
9-2
32.02
27
Perry-Lecompton
3A
11-2
31.96
28
Andover
5A
5-4
31.87
29
Holton
3A
9-2
31.24
30
Wichita Collegiate
3A
10-2
31.20
31
Hutchinson
5A
8-2
30.93
32
Wichita Heights
5A
5-3
29.54
33
Topeka Hayden
3A
7-2
28.88
34
Olathe West
6A
5-4
28.83
35
Silver Lake
2A
6-2
28.32
36
De Soto
5A
8-2
27.65
37
Hays
5A
5-3
26.93
38
Olathe East
6A
6-2
26.91
39
Riley County
3A
8-2
25.86
40
Southeast of Saline
3A
9-1
25.75
41
Blue Valley Southwest
5A
3-5
25.54
42
Valley Center
5A
5-4
24.68
43
Newton
5A
2-7
24.39
44
Manhattan
6A
6-4
23.62
45
Rock Creek
3A
5-3
23.41
46
Nemaha Central
2A
8-3
23.04
47
Clearwater
3A
7-3
22.64
48
Cheney
3A
9-1
21.58
49
Olathe Northwest
6A
3-4
20.89
50
Hoisington
2A
12-1
19.69
51
Centralia
1A
8-2
19.56
52
McPherson
4A
10-2
19.56
53
Goddard Eisenhower
5A
3-6
19.55
54
Kansas City Piper
4A
5-4
19.41
55
Spring Hill
5A
4-4
17.30
56
Arkansas City
4A
6-7
17.20
57
Wichita West
6A
3-4
16.94
58
Lawrence Free State
6A
0-6
16.68
59
Dodge City
6A
4-6
16.64
60
Frontenac
3A
6-5
16.18
61
Olathe South
6A
1-5
15.43
62
Basehor-Linwood
4A
7-4
15.20
63
Burlington
3A
8-2
15.16
64
Lansing
4A
5-4
15.13
65
Blue Valley West
6A
1-5
15.13
66
Buhler
4A
6-4
15.08
67
Olpe
1A
12-0
14.91
68
Halstead
3A
4-5
14.05
69
Garden City
6A
3-6
13.19
70
Louisburg
4A
4-5
12.96
71
Lyndon
1A
9-3
12.55
72
Eudora
4A
3-7
11.99
73
Columbus
3A
8-1
11.59
74
Prairie View
3A
8-2
11.59
75
Salina Central
5A
1-8
11.36
76
Rose Hill
4A
6-4
9.80
77
Washburn Rural
6A
4-6
9.30
78
Leavenworth
5A
4-4
8.86
79
Maur Hill Prep
2A
8-1
8.81
80
Osage City
2A
9-2
7.99
81
Girard
3A
4-6
7.91
82
Campus
6A
1-6
7.85
83
Galena
3A
6-2
7.69
84
Valley Heights
1A
7-2
7.25
85
Beloit
2A
5-6
7.15
86
Inman
1A
8-3
6.56
87
Sabetha
3A
5-4
6.11
88
Marysville
3A
4-5
5.58
89
Pittsburg
5A
4-5
4.89
90
Holcomb
3A
7-2
4.84
91
Hesston
3A
4-5
4.65
92
Shawnee Mission East
6A
1-6
4.42
93
Republic County
2A
4-3
4.28
94
Wamego
4A
6-5
4.21
95
Salina South
5A
2-6
4.11
96
Wichita South
6A
2-5
3.62
97
St. Mary’s-Colgan
2A
7-3
3.21
98
Hutchinson Trinity
2A
8-2
2.14
99
Fort Scott
4A
7-1
2.11
100
Haven
2A
8-3
1.29
101
Smith Center
1A
8-2
1.27
102
Colby
3A
6-3
1.22
103
El Dorado
4A
5-3
0.97
104
Concordia
3A
5-4
0.63
105
Minneapolis
2A
4-5
-0.12
106
Kingman
2A
6-3
-0.34
107
Wellington
4A
3-6
-0.63
108
Shawnee Mission South
6A
0-7
-1.61
109
Scott Community
3A
6-4
-1.98
110
Cimarron
2A
6-4
-2.32
111
Garden Plain
2A
9-2
-2.76
112
Augusta
4A
4-6
-3.32
113
Chapman
3A
4-3
-3.80
114
Jefferson County North
1A
7-3
-3.88
115
Oakley
1A
10-3
-3.96
116
Sedgwick
1A
8-2
-4.32
117
Liberal
5A
2-6
-4.35
118
Emporia
5A
2-7
-4.84
119
Hillsboro
2A
6-4
-5.43
120
Pratt
3A
3-6
-6.04
121
Phillipsburg
2A
4-5
-6.52
122
Clay Center
3A
4-5
-6.72
123
Topeka
6A
1-4
-7.19
124
Conway Springs
1A
8-2
-8.00
125
Caney Valley
3A
6-3
-8.08
126
Chanute
4A
3-4
-8.09
127
Atchison
4A
2-7
-9.04
128
Thomas More Prep-Marian
2A
7-2
-9.63
129
Larned
3A
3-6
-9.67
130
Baldwin
3A
3-5
-10.19
131
Shawnee Mission North
6A
1-5
-10.52
132
Labette County
4A
2-7
-10.99
133
Great Bend
4A
0-7
-11.23
134
Hugoton
3A
4-5
-11.30
135
Riverside
2A
4-5
-11.33
136
Plainville
1A
5-5
-11.98
137
Norton
2A
4-3
-11.98
138
Mission Valley
2A
5-4
-12.26
139
Shawnee Mission West
6A
2-5
-12.26
140
Field Kindley
4A
2-6
-12.53
141
Wellsville
2A
4-5
-13.01
142
Shawnee Heights
5A
1-8
-13.35
143
Winfield
4A
1-8
-14.31
144
Santa Fe Trail
3A
2-7
-14.52
145
Ulysses
4A
3-6
-14.69
146
Anderson County
3A
4-5
-14.90
147
Wichita Southeast
6A
1-6
-15.23
148
Parsons
3A
3-6
-16.29
149
Jackson Heights
1A
4-5
-16.94
150
Riverton
2A
4-4
-17.16
151
Smoky Valley
3A
3-6
-17.53
152
Mulvane
4A
1-7
-17.56
153
Pleasant Ridge
2A
2-5
-17.89
154
Ellsworth
2A
2-6
-17.98
155
Circle
4A
1-6
-18.42
156
St. Marys
2A
3-6
-18.85
157
Belle Plaine
2A
4-5
-18.91
158
Iola
3A
3-4
-19.24
159
Topeka Highland Park
5A
0-3
-19.83
160
Goodland
3A
3-5
-21.22
161
Ottawa
4A
1-8
-21.95
162
Topeka West
5A
1-5
-21.96
163
Wabaunsee
1A
4-6
-22.21
164
Ellis
2A
3-6
-22.93
165
Jefferson West
3A
1-5
-23.01
166
Bonner Springs
4A
1-6
-23.14
167
Hiawatha
3A
3-6
-23.21
168
Wichita Trinity Academy
3A
2-7
-24.27
169
Uniontown
1A
6-5
-24.77
170
Ell-Saline
1A
4-6
-25.23
171
Fredonia
2A
5-4
-25.35
172
Douglass
2A
3-4
-25.81
173
Sterling
2A
2-7
-25.91
174
Eureka
2A
5-4
-27.46
175
Lakin
2A
4-5
-27.78
176
Bishop Ward
3A
2-5
-28.09
177
Independence
4A
1-4
-28.20
178
Nickerson
3A
0-8
-30.24
179
Royal Valley
3A
0-6
-30.35
180
Remington
1A
4-5
-31.36
181
Central Heights
1A
4-5
-32.52
182
Cherryvale
3A
2-7
-32.69
183
Council Grove
3A
2-7
-33.43
184
Atchison County
2A
3-6
-33.88
185
Chaparral
2A
2-6
-34.22
186
Russell
3A
1-8
-35.30
187
Osawatomie
3A
1-8
-36.29
188
Syracuse
2A
4-4
-36.39
189
West Franklin
2A
3-6
-37.90
190
Baxter Springs
3A
0-7
-39.74
191
Humboldt
2A
4-4
-39.76
192
Wichita North
6A
0-7
-40.26
193
Marion
2A
2-7
-41.11
194
McLouth
2A
1-8
-42.23
195
Neodesha
2A
2-7
-42.25
196
Southeast
2A
3-4
-42.39
197
Pleasanton
1A
3-6
-42.92
198
Erie
2A
2-7
-44.27
199
Oskaloosa
2A
0-8
-45.19
200
Troy
1A
2-7
-45.58
201
Abilene
4A
0-6
-49.24
202
Salina Sacred Heart
1A
2-7
-49.69
203
Jayhawk Linn
2A
1-7
-51.28
204
Southwestern Heights
2A
1-8
-52.13
205
Wichita Independent
1A
2-6
-52.52
206
Northeast
1A
1-6
-54.91
207
Lyons
2A
1-6
-54.94
208
Kansas City Turner
5A
0-4
-56.70
209
Elkhart
1A
2-7
-57.09
210
Ellinwood
1A
0-9
-60.27
211
Sublette
1A
1-5
-61.38
212
Northern Heights
1A
1-8
-64.19
213
Horton
1A
0-8
-66.14
214
Stanton County
1A
0-9
-70.85
215
Bluestem
2A
0-9
-81.86
Class
Average Rating
State Champion
Runner-Up
6A
18.02
Derby
Blue Valley North
5A
20.16
Mill Valley
Wichita Northwest
4A
2.19
St. James Academy
Arkansas City
3A
-1.91
Andale
Perry-Lecompton
2A
-17.91
Rossville
Hoisington
1A
-26.74
Olpe
Oakley
Kansas City Harmon (6A), Kansas City Schlagle (5A), Kansas City Sumner (5A), Kansas City Washington (5A), and Kansas City Wyandotte (6A) did not compete this season.
Power Ratings for 2021. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Power Ratings for 2022. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Power Ratings for 2023. To compare teams, subtract one team’s rating from the other. This will provide an estimated skill difference in points per game.
Charting the Hawks 