See link here for full article:

https://247sports.com/college/kansas/Article/Bill-Self-talks-KU-basketballs-Marcus-Garrett-after-win-over-Texas-Tech-161248309/

Here is the money quote from Self:

“Marcus is one of the most-underrated players in the country. Nobody looks at him and gives him near the credit that he should get defensively because he guards everybody’s man. And his man never gets double-figures. Never. Never. And that’s a knock on wood, but never. He guards the other team’s best player,” Self said. “There’s a lot of switching that goes on, which obviously magnifies sometimes the guy he’s guarding scoring points. A lot of time he’s not on him [when he scores]. But [he’s] a ball-handler, stabilizer, and I don’t want to say he’s playing out of position, but he’s doing something that — if he had somebody back there to help him a little more … — I think he’d be more effective.”

There’s a lot here, but the quote and Scott Chasen article led to further Marcus Garrett discussion on Phog.net and elsewhere. Everyone has an opinion on Garrett, including obviously Coach Self, but how he thinks about Garrett’s value is what is most interesting as it mirrors how Charting the Hawks goes about things.

I disagree with some of Self’s specific conclusions but he is generally correct about Garrett’s game. For one, it’s tough to call Garrett underrated when he won national defensive player of the year last season. He has gotten deserved accolades. Two, Garrett has given up some double-figure games to his opponent. This shouldn’t cause us to doubt his defensive prowess, however. Even great offensive players have down games, so too do great defensive players.

Defensive value does get overlooked at times. People don’t think enough about this fact, defense accounts for exactly half the game. Half the time your team is on offense, half the time your team is on defense. Games are won in a variety of ways…good defense, good offense, or a combination of good-enough offense with good-enough defense.

Let’s get to the meat of the quote, and that is the value produced by Garrett.

Garrett’s Scoring Defense

We can take a look at how many points Garrett’s man is scoring. This can be a tough stat to keep, but it is one kept diligently by the proprietor of this website and serves as the basis of the following analysis. With switches, ball screens, help side rotation, etc. some possessions can be difficult to gauge as to which defender was responsible for giving up the points. But a majority of possessions are fairly easy to gauge, and the ones that aren’t should eventually balance out. These numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re accurate for what we’re trying to do.

For the season, Charing The Hawks has Garrett’s man scoring these point totals in each game:

7,6,4,3,10,3,2,10,7,9,DNP,12,13,8,11,8,17,2,8,13,6,5,8,0.

These games are from earliest to most recent, Gonzaga to Texas Tech (2).

By my count, Garrett’s man has scored in double-figures in 7 games. Now perhaps the KU staff has a defensive scoring system and interprets defensive possessions differently, which led to Self’s statement. While I do believe KU keeps defensive stats they don’t publish, I don’t think it is as precise or rigorous as the possession-based system done here. Instead, it is more likely that Self is using hyperbole when he makes claims about Garrett’s man scoring in double-figures; hyperbole is something he is prone to use.

Looking deeper, Tennessee was Garrett’s worst output, giving up 17 (this was the only time he was the team’s worst defender). He gave up 13 to Oklahoma State twice. He gave up 12 and 11 to Oklahoma. And he gave up 10 to Texas Tech in Lubbock and 10 to North Dakota St.

These are all explained by simple factors…Tennessee shot absurdly well, Garrett was covering high-usage Cade Cunningham for much of the two OSU games, he was covering Harmon and Reeves for much of the Oklahoma games, he gave up two late deep 3’s against Texas Tech, and had a down game against North Dakota St. like many of his other teammates.

On the flip side there are some insane defensive games in the list. He effectively pitched a shut-out against Texas Tech last Saturday…whoever he switched onto never scored (or produced a score) so McCuller got his 12 against other defenders, McClung got his 11 against others, etc. Or take the Gonzaga game, where the Jayhawks gave up 102 points yet only 7 came from Garrett’s man. Making this more remarkable is that 2 of Garrett’s points allowed were early in the game when he turned it over against a press and gave up a layup. In total, he only gave up 5 points in the half-court against a Gonzaga team that hung 102 total, and did so playing 37 minutes. Suggs, Kispert, and Timme were getting their buckets on Wilson, Agbaji, Thompson, and McCormack…not Garrett.

Some of the other games he defended well are less unexpected but still quite solid…2 points allowed in 20 minutes against Omaha, 3 points allowed in 22 minutes against Washburn, 2 points against Kansas State in 23 minutes…but he also gave up 3 against Creighton, 4 against Kentucky, and 5 against Iowa State.

Defensive points allowed can be fickle. Sometimes you play very good defense but the opponent makes a difficult shot or two. Luck evens out over a season. Garrett has given up 172 points in 23 games, or 7.5 points per game. This is very good considering how many minutes he plays. We can also look at this per possession. Garrett has allowed 0.134 pts per possession, best on the team and third-best in any season since 2007 for players playing at least 30% of possible minutes. His 2020 season is second on this list.

Other Defensive Factors

Garrett also makes defensive plays to win the ball back for his team. He rebounds, gets steals, and generates turnovers great for a guard. These possession winners also account for a player’s overall defensive value. So let’s compare him to other guards throughout the years.

If we look at the players who get the most rebounds/steals/forced TO’s, it doesn’t take long to realize that post-men do best. They grab the most rebounds (and do better than you might think in steals/forced TO’s), so all the top names in this category are big guys. And the first wing players we get to are Josh Jackson (2017) and Kelly Oubre, bigger wings who weren’t primary ball-handlers.

Looking at ball-handling guards, only Mario Chalmers compares to Garrett when it comes to winning defensive possessions. Garrett, at 0.127 steals/rebounds/forced TO’s per possession, is slightly behind Chalmers’ 2008 of 0.130. Chalmers was great at getting steals, whereas Garrett gets more rebounds. But those two names separate themselves at the top the list when it comes to point and shooting guards.

Offensive Output

Garrett is the team’s primary point guard on offense. He handles the ball the most, inbounds it underneath (a staple of PG’s in Self’s offense), and tends to be the one breaking his man down in late-clock situations. He has produced 273.3 points (points are split because assists get incorporated) for an average of 11.9 ppg. Remember earlier, he allowed 7.5 ppg. Taking 11.9 – 7.5, and Garrett is 4.4 points better than his opponent per game purely from a points-produced perspective. His misses and turnovers will hurt this number, while his rebounds, steals and forced turnovers will improve this number.

Back to his total offensive output seen in isolation. Even playing out of position, Garrett’s offense is +0.32 points per game better than a “bubble” player. KU has come to expect more offense out of its point guard position…its prior five seasons starting PG’s were: Dotson, Dotson, Graham, Mason, and Mason. But going back to 2015 and prior, the PG position had some down years. 2014 saw Tharpe start with freshman Mason and Frankamp providing backup. 2013 was an injured Elijah Johnson doing most of the PG duty. Tyshawn Taylor in 2012 was great but in 2011 had his struggles. Russell Robinson in 2007 and 2008 was the team’s weakest starter. Aaron Miles as an underclassman struggled as well.

The fact is, Garrett’s offense, just his offense, as the lead PG is still 14^th best over the past 20 years. KU has had worse “true” point guard than Garrett. Clearly Garrett isn’t a great offensive weapon. But he isn’t the worse either as he is able to get to the rim, makes his FT’s, and contributes nice passes to better scorers often enough.

Consistency

Garrett’s consistency has been great this season. Beginning in the Baylor game, he has had eleven consecutive positive games. (A positive game means he produced more value than he allowed). For the season he has had 19 positive games and 4 negative games. Another way to interpret this is to say he has helped his team’s chances of winning in 19 games, while hurting his team’s chance of winning in only 4 games. This is a level of consistency only common among the very best players, such as Frank Mason in 2017 or Devon Dotson in 2020.

Final Numbers

Putting this all together, currently Marcus Garrett is a schedule-adjusted +3.81 points per game better than a “bubble” or replacement-level player. His season would be the 4^th best starting PG over the past 20 years, which is (slightly) higher than Sherron Collins’ highest seasons. Even if Garrett’s numbers decline slightly, he will be no worse than 7^th or 8^th out of 20. Not bad for someone playing out of position. His defense is elite, and even though his offense is limited he is the biggest reason this team has the 12^th best adjusted defense (and conference’s second-best defense) and 23^rd best overall team according to KenPom.

• David McCormack now has 7 MVP games, leading the team. He also has 2 + games to balance out his 2 – games.
• Marcus Garrett has 11 consecutive positive games. He has 3 + games and 0 – games, but only 3 MVP games.
• Ochai Agbaji has equally as good in conference and non-conference games. Has 3 + games and 0 – games.
• Jalen Wilson has 5 MVP’s, including back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas State.
• Christian Braun is averaging +4.18 over his last 5 games. He has 4 MVP games, 1 + game and 2 – games.
• Mitch Lightfoot has not had a positive game since the Kansas State home game.
• Bryce Thompson is -1.06 since returning (4 games).
• Dejuan Harris has had 4 positive games in a row, averaging +1.10.
• Tristan Enaruna missed his first game against Texas Tech. Highest season score is +5.42 (TCU in Ft. Worth).
• Tyon Grant-Foster had his 4th DNP vs Texas Tech. Last game with 10+ minutes was Tennessee (14 minutes).

At this point in the season, either David McCormack or Marcus Garrett will assuredly be the team’s best player on the season. Garrett is consistent, he defends and averages around 10 points a game. McCormack has been consistently good over the past 2 months.

Below them, Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Wilson have fluctuated. Neither played well against Texas Tech on defense, but made timely shots. Agbaji could rebound better, and Wilson could play more aggressive on-ball defense.

Christian Braun has solidified his bid to be positive over his sophomore season. His rebounding and defense has picked back up, and he is due for a break-out shooting performance. The five starters have all played well over the season, but the bench has not provided much at all.

Through 23 games, KU’s team looks like this:

Bullet points:

• If starters could play all 200 minutes at same pace, KU would be about 4 ppg better. It isn’t unique for starters to be five best players, obviously. It is unique for all rotation bench pieces (save TGF) to be negative.
• Best way to increase starters minutes is with D-Mac, who is best per-minute player due to his offensive output. He averages 22.1 mpg on season, and 24.1 mpg over last 5. If he can get that to 28-32 mpg down the stretch, which seems realistic, this should improve team’s chances.
• Defense has picked up of late. Up to 12th in KP and 18th in Torvik. Even Jalen Wilson’s defense has turned positive for the season. McCormack is also grading out as okay defender after rough start.
• Offense has declined. After Wilson and McCormack, Agbaji is only +0.44 on that side. No rotation bench player is positive. 3-point shooting is declining, but still above average to competition.
• Marcus Garrett has 10 straight positive games.
• None of KU’s prior 7 games were decided by single digits (won 5 by 10+, lost 2 by 10+). This will likely change with remaining schedule: vs. Texas Tech, @ Texas, vs. Baylor.
• Could end up being Self’s worse team, but comparable to 2004, 2015, and 2019 teams.

According to news reports, freshman Bryce Thompson is poised to return to action soon, perhaps as early as tomorrow’s home game against Iowa State. The former 5-star recruit has been injured for the better part of the conference season, and played in only 10 of the team’s 20 games thus far. The reaction to this on Jayhawk social media was a bit more optimistic than I thought it should be. Sure it is good that he is healthy, but people seemed to think that Thompson was a) either playing well before he got hurt or b) could be a productive player to help the team moving forward. While it remains to be seen how he plays moving forward, his first 10 games as a college basketball player were not entirely outstanding or even helpful to the team.

First, the traditional stats. Basketball Reference (includes Washburn game) has him averaging 5.1 ppg, 1.3 rpg, and 1.0 apg in 17.0 mpg of action. His shooting percentages, 2-pt FG%, 3-pt FG%, and FT% are as follows: 41.9%, 25.0%, 71.4%. His season high is 12 points against Gonzaga, his season low is 0 points against Kentucky.

Getting more advanced, his offensive stats show a dreadful 0.76 adjusted points per possession accounted for. All said, he is -1.48 points per game worse on offense than a hypothetical replacement player at KU’s level. Taking into account his defense, which is 1.28 adjusted points per possession allowed, he scores -0.57 points per game when compared to a replacement-level player. This leads to a total Adj PPG +/- of -2.05. That is, to put it nicely, pretty bad and would be the 3rd-worst score of any Kansas rotation player in the past 20 years.

If we rate the score in per-minute instead of per-game, Thompson would be the 4th-worst rotation player over the past 10 seasons. Incidentally, Dejuan Harris is worse than Bryce on both lists. Harris is currently 2nd-worst all time on PPG, and 3rd-worst on PPM. Harris comps best to an underclass Jeff Hawkins, and Thompson to Quentin Grimes from 2019.

In summary, Thompson has currently been dreadful so far. But he isn’t without hope. 10 games isn’t a huge amount of games, and it could just be that he is still waiting to have a breakout game that propels his score upward. After all, until he broke out of it against Oklahoma State on Monday night, Christian Braun had an Adj PPG +/- of -2.07 over his past 10 games. So it is true that good players can go on prolonged slumps. The difference is, of course, that CB played quite well during his first 9 games and also in the team’s 20th game of the season, so he is +0.17 for the season. If Thompson can get his number back trending toward -1.00, he would be a positive factor off the bench for the Jayhawks leading toward the back-stretch of the season. I hope he does. But he hasn’t shown it yet.

Following Kansas’s 61-80 drubbing at the hands of Tennessee, here is what the stats look through 17 games.

For the game itself, Jalen Wilson was KU’s best player, finishing in double figures (10 points) but also balancing it with four assists and 10 rebounds. His defense was solid as well in a game where no one played great on defense. Marcus Garrett had a few uncharacteristic defensive lapses, and Tennessee made everyone pay tonight. He is still extremely solid, and the good news is that his offense is picking up. David McCormack put in another solid offensive performance, but couldn’t contain his man from matching his output.

On the down side, Christian Braun’s offensive slump continued while he fell victim to Tennessee’s hot shooting on defense. Ochai Agbaji had a poor showing defensively as well, but was able to score some points to counter what he gave up. Dejuan Harris took 0 FG attempts in 21 minutes, leading to questions as to why he’s on the floor. Tyon Grant-Foster played solid defense, but his offense was inefficient and erratic. Tristan Enaruna played carelessly, and Mitch Lightfoot played hard but without much value-adding plays. Jossell, Muscadin, and Teahan posted 1 trillions.

However one slices it, the team is on pace to be KU’s worst in the past 20 seasons. It doesn’t run good offense, weaving laterally instead of getting the ball inside the 3-point line like it should. Its defense is inconsistent, and too easily countered because it is too predictable. It has good pieces, namely Garrett, Agbaji, and McCormack; but below that is filled with role players. Can Wilson step up and become the player he was the first 10 games of the season? Can Braun begin to make shots and drive on occasion, using his 6’6 frame and strength and get easy points at the line? Can Grant-Foster improve his decision making, and get 20-25 minutes so he can help the team night-in, night-out? These 6, along with spot minutes from Harris/Lightfoot/Enaruna, give KU its best chance of winning. But they need to find a new offensive system quickly.

Doing something a little bit different in lieu of the game recap. For reference, KU just beat TCU 59-51 to go to 11-5 (5-4) on the season. Below are the individual’s PPG +/- numbers as it stands 16 games into the season.

The four categories of value are Offensive Production, Offensive Efficiency; and their corollaries Defensive Production and Defensive Efficiency. The first two numbers sum to the Offensive score, the second two to the Defensive Score, and of course the final number is the PPG +/- which is the sum of offense and defense.

The Offensive Production score is compared to a hypothetical player that is average in production…such a player would produce 1/5 of the (bubble) team’s points, adjusted for his minutes. Missed shots don’t count against players here. Offensive efficiency takes into consideration all other chartable offensive plays alongside point production…namely missed shots, turnovers, and offensive rebounds. It too depends on volume…being efficient with more volume will increase the player’s Offensive efficiency score as well as his defensive efficiency score.

David McCormack is starting to distance himself as the team’s best offensive weapon. He has a high volume–takes a lot of shots–but is also playing more efficiently of late. He is reducing his turnovers and going after offensive rebounds. He hit his first 3-pointer of the season as well. For the season, he is now up to 11.7 ppg and is closing in on Jalen Wilson (12.3 ppg) for second-place on the team. Mitch Lightfoot has also become a positive offensive contributor, largely due to his superb efficiency 1.49 ppp (points per possession used). He doesn’t miss many shots, and grabs his fair share of offensive rebounds. He is lightly used, so his production is less than it should be.

For defensive stats, Defensive Production is the reverse side of Offensive Production. Defensive Production might be poorly named…it has nothing to do with producing traditional defensive stats (like rebounding, steals, blocks) but rather tracks how many points the player gives up to his opponents while on defense. It too is based on minutes played and compared against a hypothetical bubble player. It looks purely at how well the player does in keeping his man from scoring. Defensive efficiency takes into account traditional defensive stats, as well as turnovers forced (drawn charges, forced travels or bad passes, etc.). Notice that while Agbaji does a great job of limiting his man’s scoring production, he doesn’t grab a ton of rebounds or force many turnovers. His overall defensive score is still very good, but nowhere near Marcus Garrett’s.

Notice Grant-Foster’s defensive prowess. He does a good job of keeping his man in front, and uses his length and leaping ability to grab rebounds at a valuable rate. KU is a better defensive team with him on the floor, and him playing more minutes will make the team more competitive.

Let’s take a look at KU’s worst defenders, using KU’s system to understand each’s vulnerabilities and how the team could improve its defensive numbers the rest of the way. Jalen Wilson is -1.20 ppg compared to a bubble player. In KU’s system, he is often switched onto quicker players and isolated in late-clock situations. Dejuan Harris is at the opposite end, at 6’1 and slightly-built he gives up size to bigger wing players he faces. This is partial the reason he gives up -0.77 ppg. One thing you may notice is that guards tend to have a better Def Prod score than Def Eff score. This is common, they typically play better on-ball defense than the bigs but don’t get as many blocks/rebounds and thus don’t “win” as many defensive possessions. Harris is actually equally split between his Def Prod and Def Eff, which indicates that he does actually does alright for a smaller guard in getting steals/rebounds/forcing TO’s. If he can do a better job of preventing his man from scoring on him, expect his defensive numbers to climb.

Mitch Lightfoot is surprisingly -0.55 ppg to the average bubble player, and David McCormack is likewise negative at -0.30. One big reason for this is that both players are isolated in pick-n-roll situations often as teams seek to isolate mismatches. Teams did the same thing last year with Udoka Azubuike, but Doke was a good enough shot-blocker, rebounder, and paint protector to make up for any trouble he had defending the high ball-screens. Lightfoot, and especially McCormack, can make up for defensive woes by winning the mismatch on the offensive end, and Big Dave is starting to really do that of late.

My suggestion would be for this team to hang its hat on defense. This would mean playing Wilson and Harris less, and getting Grant-Foster and Enaruna more minutes alongside the starting three guards (Garrett/Braun/Agbaji), who run the gamut defensively from good to elite. A line-up without Wilson or Harris would not have an athletic disadvantage in positions 1-4, leaving only the 5 man as the relative weak-point. Some caution should be made as the numbers presented here are descriptive and not entirely predictive, but there is some validity in adding up values from five individuals to imagine what that line-up could do. Either way, a lineup consisting primarily of these seven (Garrett, Braun, Agbaji, McCormack, Grant-Foster, Enaruna, Lightfoot) would likely be around 2.0 points better on defense per game. There may be some trade-off offensively with this rotation, and if Jalen Wilson breaks out of his slump there will be good reason to get him back on the court to improve the offense.

In closing, whatever the Hawks are running on offense clearly isn’t working. The weave is pointless, and Marcus Garrett is being asked to do too much creating on offense. Braun needs to produce more (be more aggressive). One benefit of Grant-Foster, when he is not hoisting up bricks, is that he can create a bucket by getting downhill. Still, the man to feed the ball to is David McCormack. His shooting, decision making, and pace of play have gotten much better this season.

Earlier today Kansas fell to Oklahoma 68-75, for their third loss in a row. Interestingly, the previous Jayhawk seasons with three-game losing streaks (2005, 2013), also concluded with losses at Oklahoma. Below are the traditional stats, alongside the PPG +/- numbers.

Marcus Garrett – Adj: +11.64. 21 pts, 12 rebs, 1 assist.

Christian Brown – Adj: -7.83. 2 pts, 1 reb, 1 assist.

Ochai Agbaji – Adj: -2.94. 10 pts, 3 rebs, 2 assists.

Jalen Wilson – Adj: -5.87. 13 pts, 0 rebs, 0 assists.

David McCormack – Adj: +5.76. 9 pts, 2 rebs, 4 assists.

Tyon Grant-Foster – Adj: +0.15. 0 pts, 2 rebs, 0 assists.

Tristan Enaruna – Adj: -1.03. 2 pts, 0 rebs, 0 assists.

Mitch Lightfoot – Adj: +0.28. 6 pts, 3 rebs, 0 assists.

Dejuan Harris – Adj: -0.08. 5 pts, 2 rebs, 4 assists.

Summary

Marcus Garrett showed why he is KU’s best player, playing 37 minutes of great defense while knocking down jumpers and getting in the paint. Had some late turnovers, but aside from Dejuan Harris, is really the only Jayhawk who can create with the dribble. David McCormack had a solid game defensively, playing primarily when Oklahoma’s center was in the game. His offensive efficiency was not what it should have been, especially when one recalls the looks he had. This game should have been better for him, and had he finished the close shots he missed, could have changed the outcome.

Ochai Agbaji shook off another poor first half to bounce back and finish somewhat respectably. Hit two late 3’s to give Kansas a fighting chance. Christian Braun couldn’t get an outside shot to fall, and was only able to convert 2-2 FT’s when being fouled attacking the rim. Jalen Wilson seemed to break out of his slump by scoring 8 quick points to begin the game, but he only finished with 13 total. He added no rebounds or assists, and got abused on the defensive end down the stretch. Teams are purposely setting dummy screens to get match-ups against him when he is defending. Self needs to change the defense up and not auto-switch.

The bench had some good moments. Dejuan Harris played well, although his score was negative mainly due to being undersized and giving up an and-1 to Austin Reaves. Mitch Lightfoot also had a good offensive game in his limited minutes. Tristan Enaruna was so-so, and Tyon-Grant Foster played fine defense in five minutes yet couldn’t stay in the game due to two bricked jumpers.

After 15 games, the team’s PPG +/- looks like this:

The team is about equally as good on offense as it is on defense. The starters all grade-out positively, and the bench is primarily below “bubble-level.” If there were any doubts, Marcus Garrett’s defense remains elite and grades slightly better than even last year. As a prior blog post noted, his offense has slipped in 2021, but following his 21-point game this afternoon has gotten back above bubble-level. Christian Braun’s inconsistent play continues; when he isn’t making shots he has poor games and when he makes shots he has good games. The way to break the inconsistency is to find ways to score inside, off the bounce or offensive rebound. Ochai Agbaji has become KU’s best scorer, finding ways to get to double-figures even in games where he starts out slow. Jalen Wilson has crashed back down after a good non-conference season, and finds himself on pace to have the worst defensive season of any Kansas Jayhawk over the past 20 years. A large part of this is the style of play. The primary offensive strategy in recent seasons is to hunt for advantageous matchups and play iso-ball off of these. With KU’s automatic switches on the perimeter, Wilson is being picked on as the man to attack. Despite some misunderstanding, Wilson should not be thought of as a “guard,” he is a forward, and allowing him to switch on perimeter defense onto a quicker man 50 possessions a game will hurt the team. David McCormack has earned 25 minutes per game, but he needs to play more consistently when he gets chances inside. His defensive score has gotten better, but some of that is due to reversion to mean. He isn’t a great defender, and will have games where he gives up points.

Bryce Thompson has not shown the ability to add value at this level, he’s had exactly 1 positive game in the 10 he’s played (vs. Creighton). Tyon Grant-Foster is a solid defender, but his offensive flow in limited minutes has hurt the team. I would play him more minutes and not let him shoot 3’s (1-17 on season). He can add value by driving the ball and attacking the offensive glass. His lateral quickness and length allows the team to defend better on the perimeter as well. Tristan Enaruna is close to putting together a solid stretch of games. Mitch Lightfoot is quietly having his most valuable season as a Jayhawk. Dejuan Harris is a season away from being a consistent performer at this level. Of all the bench players, he has the best chance to improve his numbers dramatically over the rest of the season. His biggest weakness is that he doesn’t score much (averages less than 2 ppg). He distributes well on offense, but even getting his ppg average to 4 likely be enough to become replacement-level. Another thing hurting him is that he doesn’t play with great “finishers.” He doesn’t have a Doke to throw lobs to, and guys like Braun don’t move great off the ball. Which is only to say that in this scoring system, who you play with does affect your score, just as much as it affects traditional stats such as your assists, rebounds, and points.

In keeping with the trend of comparing players from different seasons, some KU fans have pointed out that Marcus Garrett in 2021 is having a statistically similar season to Elijah Johnson’s 2013. Both senior guards, who played primarily off the ball their first three seasons, now thrust into primary point guard duties and doing it less-than-spectacularly.

Traditional stats have Marcus Garrett at 9.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg so far this season. Johnson finished 2013 at 9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.6 apg. Shooting percentages are also comparable; Garrett is 45.0%, 32.0%, and 82.1% (2 pt%, 3 pt%, FT%) and Johnson was 42.8%, 33.1%, and 76.3%.

The eye-test also agrees with these numbers. Both players certainly have/had ball-handling skills, but they pale in comparison to the offensive abilities of the primary point guards the years prior. Devon Dotson in 2020 was a blur, the team’s leading scorer who could seemingly get around his man at will and get a bucket, and handle the ball against the opponents’ quickest defenders. Likewise, Tyshawn Taylor in 2012 was a blur, the team’s second leading scorer who could get shots up at will and yet remain somewhat efficient, and of course handled the ball against the quickest defenders night-in, night-out.

Below is a chart of each Kansas starting PG from 2012-2021, ranked by Off +/-. Again for reference, this number calculates how much better in points per game the player is than a typical “bubble player” (or replacement-level power conference player) on offense. It is a “one-number” metric that attempts to combine all value-adding plays (like WAR in baseball sabermetrics).

Over the past decade, KU has had great PG’s. Yes, senior Mason was that good. At the bottom of this list are Johnson and Garrett, adding further proof that they are offensively comparable.

We can also compare Garrett and Johnson’s senior seasons with their junior seasons, when they primarily played off-guard roles. Johnson’s Off +/- in 2012 was -0.238, below-bubble but still better than his senior year. Garrett’s 2020 Off +/- was +0.763, a number which may surprise people. Garrett’s drop-off has been more pronounced than Johnson’s, but any drop-off from one year to the next is noteworthy because it happens only about 20% of the time for any player. As players get older, they get better. The fact Johnson and now Garrett have seen noticeable declines in offensive value indicates they are playing out of position (Johnson also had a knee injury in 2013).

But offense only tells half the story, a fact commonly glossed over by those analyzing a basketball player’s value. This isn’t entirely their fault as traditional defensive statistics are incomplete. We don’t have the same limitations here. Below is the same chart as before, except for Defense.

Garrett’s defense at the point guard position has been better than anyone else to play that role at KU this decade (or ever). The difference between him and second on the list (Dotson’s FRESHMAN season), is greater than that of Frosh Dotson and 8^th place and the aforementioned injury-plagued Elijah Johnson.

Garrett’s defense so far this season has been equivalent to what it was last year, so we shouldn’t expect it to drop off much and might even improve once a full season has been played. He locks down in the half-court, while also providing solid help-side defense, steals, rebounds, and many forced turnovers. There’s a reason he won National Defensive Player of the Year.

Putting the numbers together, Garrett grades out as the 5^th best KU PG over the last decade. His game is far uglier than Dotson as a freshman or Mason as a junior, but as far as replacement value there isn’t any real difference. The 2021 team with either of those two guys from those seasons instead of Garrett would be as good as it currently is.

Over the past decade, KU’s point guards have been better than the average of the other positions on the court. It’s a bit harsh to demand that Garrett be equivalent to a Mason or Dotson, yet some want to make that comparison. Why not compare him to an underclass Tyshawn Taylor? Or a Russell Robinson?

Look at the string of PG talent from 2016-2020 (Jr. Mason, Sr. Mason, Sr. Graham, Fr. Dotson, So. Dotson). A fairer comparison would not be Garrett against other KU point guards, but Garrett against other KU starters. Is Garrett holding his own regardless of position?

Going back to 2012, the average PPG +/- for players of all positions getting starters minutes (>50% of minutes played) is +2.13. So despite playing out of position, Garrett at +3.53 is easily adding value above even the average starter. He is comparable to other off guards in years past such as Wayne Selden 2016, Kirk Hinrich 2002, and Andrew Wiggins 2014. On a team with little to no interior defense (Wilson, McCormack, and Lightfoot all grade out well-below replacement defensively); it is remarkable that the team is currently 14^th in adjusted defense. Marcus Garrett is the largest reason why (Agbaji and Braun are also plus defenders). Ignore anyone who thinks the team is better with Garrett on the bench.

Tonight Kansas fell to Baylor, 69-77, and is now 10-4 on the year. The Hawks fought well, but Baylor was too good and answered every comeback attempt the Hawks had. Below are the Raw and Adj. PPG +/- scores for the game along with traditional stats for reference:

Marcus Garrett. Raw: +2.33 Adj: +5.00. 9 pts, 3 rebounds, 8 assists.

Christian Braun. Raw: +6.17 Adj: +8.83. 17 pts, 4 rebounds, 1 assist.

Ochai Agbaji. Raw: +3.00 Adj: +5.37. 16 pts, 2 rebounds, 1 assist.

Jalen Wilson. Raw: -6.50 Adj: -4.75. 4 pts, 5 rebounds, 3 assists.

David McCormack. Raw: -8.17 Adj: -6.64. 6 pts, 2 rebounds, 1 assist.

Tristan Enaruna. Raw: +1.33 Adj: +2.68. 4 pts, 1 rebound, 2 assists.

Mitch Lightfoot. Raw: -7.00 Adj: -5.73. 8 pts, 4 rebounds, 1 assist.

Dejuan Harris. Raw: -1.67 Adj: -0.21. 2 pts, 1 rebound, 1 assist.

Chris Teahan. Raw +2.50 Adj: +2.57. 3 pts, 0 rebounds, 0 assists.

The Good: Starting Guards

Christian Braun had the best game of any Jayhawk, due to his highly efficient offensive performance (17 pts on 5-7 FG, 2-2 FT). His defensive effort was also solid once adjusted for opponent. Ochai Agbaji shook off a rough first half to finish as a positive contributor. Despite the box score only showing one defensive rebound, he forced four turnovers in the game to go along with his two steals. Marcus Garrett also played solid on both ends of the court. His defense was elite until the end (got beat/gave up and-one layup; unnecessary bonus foul gave up 2 FT’s), but still finished around his season average. Combining the three starting guards’ efforts, Kansas was +11.50 points better than Baylor, raw. Simply put, had the others pulled their weight KU could have won this game.

The OK: Reserve Guards:

Tristan Enaruna continued his solid play, out-valuing his man through good offensive efficiency and solid defensive positioning. As a back-up wing, he did what he needed to stay on the court and help his team compete (18 minutes). His improvement over the recent games has been a sign of encouragement. Dejuan Harris showed good hustle and energy, although he finished slightly negative even when adjusting to the opponent’s high level of skill. Once he adds a shot, he will be a complete player. But his defense is creeping toward replacement-level after tonight’s game. Chris Teahan added a buzzer 3-pointer, continuing his torrid play in limited minutes.

The Ugly: The Bigs:

Given how good Baylor’s guards are, it was assumed that KU had to get positive contributions from Wilson, McCormack, and Lightfoot for the team to win. Even this wasn’t the case tonight, all that was needed from these 3 was respectable numbers, but none of the three could muster anything decent. Baylor put these bigs in pick-n-rolls and iso situations, and punished them repeatedly. McCormack was the worst of the bunch, coming away with one blocked-shot but nothing more of value on the defensive end. He was out there getting scored on, and not much else. Wilson did grab four rebounds and force two turnovers, but he was too slow to check Baylor’s guards on switches. Lightfoot was very bad in the second half, and his defense alone was roughly the difference in the game (~ -7.24 raw).

Final Analysis:

Matching the film with the scorecard, it’s clear that KU’s guards were able to match the effort of those from Baylor. Teams, and Baylor is no exception, shy away from going at Garrett due to his defensive prowess. Braun is solid on defense but not spectacular, yet is a plus rebounder who wins possessions back for his team. Agbaji’s on-ball defense has continued to improve, and he showed tonight what he can do on both ends, shaking off a poor first-half to help get the team back in the game.

But getting a complete effort from the entire roster continues to be elusive. McCormack followed up a great game last week against Oklahoma State with a dud tonight. Wilson has failed to reach double figures in scoring in three consecutive games, after reaching that mark in 9 of his first 11 games this season. When bench players like Tristan Enaruna and Dejuan Harris have solid games, their efforts are cancelled out by a poor game from Mitch Lightfoot. The team appears to be huddling around the 12-15 rank mark in efficiency (currently #15 on KenPom), in the 3/4 seed range.

Bryce Thompson is injured and out, Tyon Grant-Foster did not play as well.

With 12 games in the books in the 2021 season, Ochai Agbaji has shown that the sophomore slump is far behind him. In traditional stats, he’s leading the team with 14.8 ppg, while adding 4.7 rpg and 2.3 apg. He’s been mainstay. His 31.6 mpg is second only to Marcus Garrett, yet Agbaji leads the team in total minutes due to Garrett missing the TCU game.

This brings to mind the career arc of Wayne Selden. After two years of less-than-expected performance, the former guard/wing went for 13.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.6 apg for a team that achieved the #1 overall seed and Elite 8 appearance in 2016. And while Selden came in much more heralded than Agbaji, both players showed signs of talent in their underclass years that was not consistently realized until their junior seasons.

The similarities don’t end there. Both players have the same listed height (6’5) and play the same wing position with similar skill sets. Compare scouting reports of Agbaji to Selden. Ball handling? Just okay. Shooting? Above average. Body-type? Strong, athletic, able to finish at the rim. Defense? Well above-average, capable of guarding multiple positions.

For the 2016 season, Wayne Selden had a PPG +/- of +3.38, with +1.90 of those points coming from offense and +1.48 from defense. He didn’t grab a lot of rebounds or come up with many steals, but rather played great positional defense by allowing 0.158 ppp (or about 9.5 ppg allowed in 60 possessions).

Ochai Agbaji is currently at +3.52 PPG, and is projected to be between +2.5 and +4.8 90% of simulations given the data from his season so far. Like Selden, he is neither offense nor defense heavy, at +1.96 offense and +1.56 defense. His positional defense (about 8.7 ppg allowed in 60 possessions) is also where his defensive value lies; not rebounding, steals or forced turnovers.

Should he end his season where he is now, Agbaji would grade out at about the 28^th best KU Jayhawk since 2002, equal with Kirk Hinrich’s excellent junior season. This would also put him around the 90^th percentile of all Jayhawks in the last 20 years. He also has a chance to be the best Jayhawk this season, depending on how Marcus Garrett fares (Garrett’s defense is elite, while his offense has slipped and is below-bubble. This makes comparisons with Agbaji somewhat difficult). Regardless of where he ends up, Agbaji’s improvement from last season (-0.95) will be among the best of all Jayhawks year-over-year. Frank Mason’s award-winning 2017 season saw a 4.78 increase in value over his solid 2016 season for reference. While Agbaji’s improvement in 2021 was “easier” due to how poor his 2020 season went, it has nevertheless been good to see a popular Jayhawk develop into the type of player we all thought he could become.