The Kansas Jayhawks won their 50th consecutive home-opener as they defeated the Omaha Mavericks for the third time in the past six seasons (2018, 2021).
Freshman Gradey Dick led all Jayhawks with +4.03 points of value above bubble. Gradey scored a majority of his points off an assist, with Dejuan Harris and Jalen Wilson setting him up on multiple occasions.
Other positive performances came from Bobby Pettiford (13 points on 6-7 shooting) and Ernest Udeh (7 defensive possessions won in 14 minutes). Both of these bench players showed why they should be part of the rotation due to how they played in the opener.
Walk-on Michael Jankovich made a long 2 with his toes on the line in his only shot attempt.
Junior forward Jalen Wilson also contributed value, producing the most points (21 points produced), but giving up 15 on the defensive end.
The TEAM as a whole was only +2.37 in value. KU only won by 25 against a team that it was favored to beat by 30+ points. On paper, Omaha wasn’t a tough matchup, which is why the value scores look so low. Harris, McCullar, Adams, and Yesufu had positive unadjusted scores; but didn’t do enough to overcome the opponent discount of the Mavericks. Omaha was ranked #330 on KenPom coming into the game. If they improve upon this ranking as they play more games, the value scores for KU will also improve during the season.
The offensive score (+6.74) was more efficient than the defensive effort (-4.37). Although KU only allowed 64 points to UNO, this was on 69 charted possessions. Given Omaha’s discount factor, this graded out to be a poor defensive effort. On the flip side, 89 points against Omaha graded positively in 69 possessions (1.29 Off_eff).
Kansas is back in action Thursday against North Dakota State. The Bison fell to Arkansas 76-58 in their opener, and sit at #205 in KenPom. KU is favored by 23 points according to the computer metric.
The 2022 National Champions looked sluggish to start, falling behind as much as 15, midway through the first half. However, the Hawks quickly turned it around and ran away from the Gorillas to win 94-63 in the team’s only televised exhibition matchup. The games will start to count for real on Monday when the Omaha Mavericks come to visit. In terms of most to least valuable, here is how the Jayhawks graded out against Pitt St.
Kevin McCullar +8.90
The Texas Tech transfer finished with 13 points, but it was his defense which stood out. He only allowed 1 point, while winning 11 possessions because of a steal, rebound, block, or forced turnover. While he may have benefited from his man missing an open shot here or there, it’s clear he is a legitimate plus defender who will almost certainly grade out as the team’s best over the course of a 31+ game schedule. He will do best getting his points in transition, although he can make the occasional 3.
Gradey Dick +6.01
The 5-star frosh started slowly, but got into the action with a backdoor cut for a dunk. From there his full offensive game was on display. Ripping open 3’s with a ridiculously quick and pure jumper. Running the floor. Finding the open man. Hustling to get tip-ins. Cutting backdoor and finishing off a reverse while drawing contact. All-in-all he had 20 points on 9 FGA’s. The question will be his defense. He doesn’t have to be an all-conference player on the defensive end to add value, but will he do enough to ensure that teams don’t pick on him at that end. Either way, he has earned a starting nod.
Zuby Ejiofor +3.97
Despite playing a shade under 10 minutes, Ejiofor finished with 8 points and 4 rebounds. He was KU’s best interior player in this game, showing how he can compliment a team with skilled wings and guards who know how to find the open man. Like any freshman, up and down games are to be expected. But he appears to be ahead of schedule in his development.
Ernest Udeh +2.18
The other freshman big man got the start, but played sparingly afterwards. He finished with 4 points and 3 boards while not giving anything up on the other end. Udeh’s size and activity will net him minutes this season, but it is apparent that certain defensive matchups will be trouble.
Jalen Wilson +1.66
Jalen went for 23 and 4. He started slow but ended up having a decently efficient game in the end. Defensively, his second half was much cleaner than the first period. Wilson is clearly Kansas’s best iso-scorer, given his ability to put the ball on the deck and score through contact. Since he will be KU’s number one option, he will have to learn to adapt to different defensive schemes he will face this season.
Kyle Cuffe +0.59
Cuffe’s score is due to his defensive effort in not allowing a point. He played 12 minutes, seemed to rotate well, and put some pressure on in-bounds plays to force turnovers. On offense, he looked raw but did have a nice finish in transition. Cuffe’s minutes will increase if he can take care of the ball and win hustle plays.
Dillon Wilhite -0.10
The redshirt freshman walk-on only saw 41 seconds and a few moments of action. The entry pass to him was deflected out of bounds, hence a score near 0.
Zach Clemence -0.48
Clemence’s unadjusted score was positive, but when you add the team factor of a D-2 school in, it becomes below bubble. But don’t less this distract from the nice game Zach had. He finished with an efficient 7 points and 4 rebounds in 14 minutes. He did give up a few 3-pointers on defense, which might have partially been due to bad luck (other Kansas players gave up open looks that weren’t hit…as the season goes on this luck factor will balance out).
Bobby Pettiford -0.98
Like Clemence, Pettiford did some nice things despite the negative score. He was quick and active, creating scoring opportunities for teammates and pressuring at the point while on defense. Pettiford probably won’t ever be a “scoring guard,” but if he can get out in transition, he will provide more on that end than in the half-court.
Michael Jankovich -1.33
Jank had a 3 and an assist in six-and-a-half minutes of play, but also gave up a 3 on defense. He played well, but probably won’t see much action despite his lethal ability to shoot.
Dejuan Harris -3.21
The starting PG did some things well. He finished with 10 assists to 3 turnovers, and added 6 points. He also had some steals and pressured the ball well at times. Like others, his negative score is due to the adjustment factor, as his unadjusted score was slightly positive. The concern this season with Juan is the same as it has been in the past. He does his PG duties well, but does he score enough and “play big” enough on defense to add value? KU switches a bunch, and at times he will lose his man and give up a cheap basket. Let’s put it this way. If Harris doesn’t make a ton of jumpers, he can’t be giving up decent 3-point looks to the opposing guards he faces.
K.J. Adams -4.34
The sophomore forward not only started the game, he also played a decent chunk as the “5” man. He scored 4 points with 2 assists, and had the highest +/- on the team with a +31. So how was his value score so low? Well, he had some sloppy turnovers, but the biggest reason was he didn’t rebound. In 21 minutes, he had 1 rebound for the whole game. Adams is a possible plus-defender with the ability to be a very good defender, but he has to rebound the ball.
Joe Yesufu -11.14 It’s tough to overstate how bad of a game Yesufu had. He forced up numerous bad shots, lost his man in defensive rotations, and while playing off the ball didn’t contribute anything in terms of assists. It’s clear the team wants him to be aggressive, but there is a line between aggressiveness and poor shot selection.
A look ahead to the Regular Season
You can learn a lot in exhibition games, even if the level of competition isn’t equivalent to what the team will be facing for the bulk of the season. Having watched the game, here’s what I expect in terms of rotations, playing time, etc. moving forward. Also, keep in mind that Kansas will have additional “buy games” which should allow them additional possessions to experiment with lineups before conference play starts.
Starters:
Given how the team looked, expect the starting 5 to look like this on Monday. Harris, McCullar, Dick, Wilson, Adams. This puts Adams as the starting 5, which isn’t ideal. As indicated above, Adams did worse than the other three big men in terms of player value, even though his box score +/- was the team’s best. But like Pitt State, Omaha won’t have a ton of size. I expect the coaches to go with the experience of K.J. for game one.
Gradey Dick’s performance was too good to ignore. His presence on the court should open up driving lanes for others like Wilson and McCullar. His defense isn’t great, but it isn’t the worst on the team either. He deserves to start, but even if he doesn’t start, he will play serious minutes. The other three are definite starters.
Rotation:
In addition to the starters, the rotation will consist of Pettiford, Clemence, Ejiofor, Udeh, and one of either Cuffe/Yesufu/Rice.
Starting with Pettiford, who looked great with the ball in his hands in the exhibition. It’s clear from the rotations that the staff wants to play either Harris or Pettiford as PG. One of these two will be in the game, but rarely will they play together. In fact, against Pitt State, the two played a combined 40 minutes and 45 seconds, with the only overlap coming at the end of the 1st half. Other than that, it was one or the other at PG.
Next comes the three big men. There’s a chance one of these three starts over K.J. on Monday. Either way, each will get time at the “5” spot. Additionally, KU looked okay with both Clemence and Ejiofor on the floor together. Given Clemence’s ability to shoot, playing these two together doesn’t hurt the team’s spacing on offense. It would be defense that would be the concern. It will be interesting to see what Coach Roberts does.
The last question, and the one that seems the least clear, is the question of the reserve off-ball guards/wings. Joe Yesufu didn’t play any point guard against Pitt State, and all signs seem to indicate that the coaches see him as a scoring guard and not a point. However, he didn’t play great on either end in this role. Looking at his stats last year, Joe was best with the ball in his hands, playing point. But it’s clear that the coaches are happy with Harris/Pettiford at this position, hence the reason to shift Joe to the off-guard spot.
Kyle Cuffe likewise had some struggles, but did look a little sharper than Yesufu. And last, how serious is the injury to M.J. Rice? He will seemingly be out for some time, but is this a few weeks, a month, or longer? In the exhibition, both Cuffe and Yesufu played quite a bit on the court together. I think the reason for this was that Self wanted to see which one he liked better. To me this was Cuffe, but I wasn’t super-impressed by him either.
Ultimately, the main rotation will consist of:
PG: Harris / Pettiford
Wing: McCullar / Yesufu
Wing: Dick / Cuffe
4: Wilson / Adams
5: Udeh / Clemence / Ejiofor
With Clemence and Adams having the potential to play either the 4 or 5, and the wings being interdependent. Also, McCullar and/or Dick could play the “4,” it really is fluid aside from the PG and post positions.
Projected minutes is another way to do it. This will be for roughly the first 5 games, understanding that this is flexible based on game score and matchups.
Harris: 26
McCullar: 30
Wilson: 30
Dick: 28
Adams: 15
Pettiford: 14
Clemence: 14
Udeh: 13
Ejiofor: 13
Cuffe: 10
Yesufu: 7
The minutes distro between Harris/Pettiford will be 40 or very close to it. The minutes distro between Udeh/Clemence/Ejiofor will be close to 40, with Adams playing some 5 at times but Zach playing some 4 at times as well. The off-guards/wings will be 120, so 120 between the likes of Adams, Wilson, Dick, McCullar, Yesufu, and Cuffe.
Without a doubt, KU’s biggest off-season win was the announced return of Jalen Wilson. The incoming redshirt junior has started 53 games in his career, the bulk of his two full seasons as a healthy Jayhawk. But how good can he be this season? Let’s try and find out.
Let’s first look at Jalen’s per game stats since coming to Lawrence.
After being injured for nearly the entire 2020 season, Wilson emerged as KU’s best scorer to begin his redshirt freshman campaign in the 2021 season. He averaged 15.1 PPG over his first 10 games that year. And while he cooled off some, he finished 2021 as KU’s third-leading scorer and leading rebounder. Coming into 2022, Wilson was expected to pick up where he left off. But after poor off-court choices and a suspension to start the season, Wilson started slow, only reaching double-figures in scoring in his 7th game of the season (team’s 10th game). But he picked it up, finishing the season with double-figure scoring games in 22 of his 37 games played. In the NCAA Tourney, he posted double-figures in 5 of the 6 games.
Where Wilson has shown strength is in isolation offense. A great example came against Providence in the Sweet 16. When KU needed a basket after giving up the lead, they went to Wilson. See 1:06:40 of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ4dOprMnHI&t=2746s
Wilson got a good matchup and exploited it, but this has been his m.o. while at Kansas. This play is memorable because it came at a big moment, but Wilson has had this ability since he got to Kansas.
A season prior, or even earlier in the year, Wilson would have gotten beat. Not only does he keep his man in front, he also makes the steal. Again, this was against one of Providence’s guards, not a plodding forward. Just looking at the official stats, we see that Wilson doubled his steal output from 2021 to 2022. This tells some of the story regarding his defensive improvement. But there is more here.
Value Stats
First, we will compare Wilson’s offensive stats from 2021 to 2022.
The columns can be understood thusly. Off Eff is Wilson’s offensive efficiency. He was more efficient in 2022. PtsAF/gm is Points Accounted for per game. This takes into account all points scored and assisted, while recognizing the added value of an unassisted basket vs. a basket the player was assisted on. In 2021 Wilson produced more points per game than in 2022. TS% is a version of true shooting percentage, with Wilson shooting better overall in 2022. Both ShotFreq and Impact look at the player’s usage, with 20% being an average usage. The team needed more offense from Wilson during his freshman season than they did during his sophomore campaign. The final number tells the whole story. Wilson’s offensive value was steady between seasons. He produced about 1 point per game offensively above that of a bubble-level player. He was more efficient with less volume in 2022 when compared to 2021.
Looking at defense, we see that Wilson’s Def Eff (defensive efficiency) improved immensely. The next columns tell us why. In 2021 he gave up 13.5 points per 60 possession while on defense, a number which improved to 11.0 points per 60 in 2022. The possession winner columns, PW/gm and PW/60, indicate that his rebounding/steal/forced turnover numbers were basically flat. The last column shows that Wilson went from a negative-value defender to a solidly positive-value one. Such a jump is rare.
This table combines the offensive and defensive value scores into one number.
2023 Projections
Without a doubt, this season Jalen will again be asked to take on a larger scoring load. Bart Torvik projects him to average 16.0 PPG. Given an increase in usage, his offensive value should jump as long as he can remain somewhat efficient. We project him to be +1.45 on offense, which would be about a 1/2-point increase. This is a conservative estimate which acknowledges that opponents will focus on stopping him more now that he is the primary threat on offense.
For defense, we project him to be +1.34. This is essentially the same as last season. It’s clear that he made gains defensively, primarily in the areas of lateral quickness and on-ball defense. For him to add more defensive value this season would require additional improvements on defense. But he is already a good rebounder. Perhaps in steals or forced turnovers? Given his position, this is unlikely.
Another consideration is that Wilson’s defense might take a step back as he takes on more of a scoring load. This isn’t uncommon to see. It happened to Sherron Collins in his junior season (2009) and Devon Dotson in his sophomore season (2020). As a player expends more energy on the offensive end, he has less to give on defense.
At +2.79, Jalen Wilson’s projected PPG AB +/- is +0.48 from 2022 and +2.15 from 2021. This isn’t a huge leap from last season, but it’s still a decent-size jump from his freshman year. Bill Self said that Wilson needed to have an all-American type year for Kansas to be as successful as it wants to be, which we can take to mean winning the conference and earning a top 2 seed in order to have decent odds at making a Final Four run. We certainly agree. The play of Jalen Wilson will determine a lot with regards to how Kansas does this year.
And he should be. Harris is the type of kid who plays the game hard, never complains, is a great teammate, and from all appearances seems like the model player off the court. And as he comes into his third year as a Jayhawk player (fourth year in the program), he is positioned to be one of the leaders on the team in the 2023 season.
On KU Twitter and the Message Boards, Harris is generally seen as a positive contributor, however there are the occasional unpopular types who will point out his stats. The Harris-haters are derided. But are they completely wrong? For instance, take a look at his per game stats for 2022.
Harris isn’t a scorer, of that people agree. His assist total is solid, but then again, he is a PG. The A/TO ratio of is 2.8 is very good. He also gets some steals. On the negative side, his rebounding is quite low. And his shooting could improve. But stats are meaningless without context. The question is less, is Dejuan Harris good, and more, how should we judge his skill? Against all D-1 college basketball? Or against KU-level point guards? Let’s first compare his stats to other KU point guards from their sophomore years.
This list contains the sophomore-year stats of all players in the Self-era who were the primary starting PG for their team in at least one season. We want to compare Harris as the starting PG against other starters. For this reason, guys like Mario Chalmers (he played some point, but was never the primary starter at that position) and Niko Roberts (never started) are left off, and guys like Elijah Johnson (who was an off-guard most of his career until he became the PG as a senior) are included.
The list is sorted by highest PPG total. Looking at the comparison, we see Harris below everyone except Elijah Johnson, who played 13.7 MPG on a loaded 2011 team and was behind 4 other guard-types. Harris has relatively good numbers when it comes to ball-handling stats (assists, turnovers) and steals. His rebounding and shot attempt numbers don’t look great.
But what about his defense? Unlike traditional stats, Charting the Hawks has the ability to judge defensive skill-level more robustly, and not just steals, fouls, rebounds, and blocks. Let’s take a look at these 10 player-seasons from the defensive side of the ball.
note that Robinson’s junior year is used here, as his sophomore year isn’t fully charted
Some explanation here is helpful. This list is sorted by Pa/p or Per60 columns, with lowest being better. Pa/p stands for Points Against per Possession. This shows how many points the player gave up per possession. This number is set to Per 60 possessions (about 35 minutes of game play) to make it more intuitive. Harris is third among his peers in the Self-era in this category.
The GDP/p refers to Good Defensive Plays per possession. This refers to the number of rebounds, steals, blocks, and non-steal forced turnovers a player contributes on the defensive end. We note that Harris is second-worst on this end, as his rebounding totals are below his peers.
Player value is best seen by putting everything together. All relevant offensive and defensive metrics makes the total player. Glancing above, we know that Harris is a solid defender and good ball-handler. These are two skills associated with point guards. However, we also see he doesn’t do much else, even when compared to other point guards.
Robinson’s sophomore year is used here, as we can estimate his value score using box score data for games not charted
The final table sorts these 10 players by PPG AB +/-. Harris comes in 9th of 10, only ahead of 2011 Elijah Johnson. The Per100 column is also useful, as it looks at player value from a per (100) possession basis to account for playing time differences. Here Harris grades out slightly higher than 2013 Naadir Tharpe.
Breaking down Harris further, we see his offense only bettered that of 2019 Marcus Garrett. His defense came in around average, and this was in large part due to his rebounding. Had he rebounded at a rate of Devon Dotson (3.5 DRPG), he would have been the second-best defender on this list and had a PPG AB +/- value score that was positive.
The irony of Harris is this. When you examine “pure” point guard skills such as defensive pressure, steals, forced turnovers, ball-handling, assists, turnovers, and free throw shooting; Harris is solid and one of the best. But when you add the other elements of basketball not always associated with PG’s—such as scoring volume and rebounding—Harris’s value diminishes. Point guards don’t have to rebound much, but they have to get enough boards. And they don’t have to lead the team in scoring, but they still have to be a capable enough option that it forces other teams to guard them.
Last, the final table looks at the seasons all starting point guards have had since 2007. This is different in that it compares PG’s of different classes—freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior.
Value produced by KU starting PG’s from 2007-2022
Here we see Harris in last. The WAR is Wins Above Replacement, with replacement-level equaling the average D-1 player. This is estimating that Harris gave KU an extra 0.62 wins above the average D-1 player getting his minutes. So even if Harris has been at the bottom of starting point guards in the Self-era, he can still add value.
Looking ahead to 2023:
For the upcoming season, we expect Harris to improve on his 2022 campaign. College players tend to improve season-to-season. As Harris plays a larger role, expect his scoring to improve. But we also want to see gains on his rebounding numbers. There were multiple times when he allowed an offensive rebound, which gave the opponent a good-look at a score (see 3:42 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIMOY6CoQKI Harris drifts away from his man instead of blocking out and watches his man tip the ball out for an open 3). By just adding a little more physicality to his game, he can add a rebound per game or so which will lift his value alongside other improvements to his game.
Charting the Hawks has Dejuan Harris’s 2023 season with a -0.28 projected PPGAB. But this is merely an objective estimate using trends of player improvement. Players improve by an average of around half a point per game per season. But some improve more than this, while some actually decline in value. Don’t be surprised if Harris makes a big leap from sophomore to junior year.
Today KenPom released his preseason rankings for the 2023 basketball season. In it, KU is 8th in the country and 3rd in the conference. By his estimate, KU should go 20-9 in its scheduled games (it still has 2 games against unknown opponents in the Bahamas Tournament). The AP also released its top 25, having KU at 5.
Charting the Hawks will also attempt to evaluate KU’s true ranking by looking at this year’s roster, and then build up to a team prediction based on the sum of the parts.
Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +2.79
Joseph Yesufu (Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35
K.J. Adams (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.28
Bobby Pettiford (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.59
Zach Clemence (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.47
Michael Jankovich (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.36
Kansas has 7 returnees, with Harris and Wilson also returning as starters. Of these, 6 are rotation (non-walk-on) players. The projections shown here expect about a 0.50 PPG increase per player compared to last season, with minutes-played estimates having a factor. Jalen Wilson is expected to be KU’s best player, and has the best potential of any Jayhawk to finish with All-American honors. Coach Self hit the nail on the head when he stated that for this team to reach its potential, it needs Jalen to play ta an All-American level. Normally a score of +4.50 or even +5.00 is All-American. Wilson has the best chance of any Jayhawk to get there, but history says we shouldn’t expect this. What Wilson has going for him is that he will get a lot more opportunities to score with no McCormack, Agbaji, or Martin to generate offense through. This could boost his value score above his projected number.
Incoming Transfers:
Kevin McCullar (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.94
Cam Martin (Rs Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.31
McCullar’s projection is taken using box-score stats from his previous time at Texas Tech, with the caveat that his defensive plays weren’t charted. The tape would indicate he is a superb defender, with the ability to score at times. He won’t give up easy baskets, and should be an anchor on that end.
Incoming Freshmen:
Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35
Gradey Dick (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.57
M.J. Rice (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.69
Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.18
Ernest Udeh (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.12
Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53
With freshmen, the projections are tough. The only real framework is their rankings in the class as well as any hype around them. What we use is historic freshman value based upon incoming class rank. This isn’t a perfect way to do it of course, but higher-ranked players do tend to perform better. For Gradey Dick, his high incoming ranking has him projected to have player value somewhere between the freshman seasons of Kelly Oubre 2015 or Perry Ellis 2013. M.J. Rice is somewhere around Ochai Agbaji 2019. Udeh compares to Cole Aldrich 2008 or Markieff Morris 2009. Ejiofor would be closest to Carlton Bragg 2016. Again, these are broad estimates that are meant to incorporate the possibility of over or underachievement.
The TEAM ranking then attempts to take in these player numbers and combine them in a way which recognizes minute distribution. We know Wilson, Harris, and McCullar should get starters’ minutes. There is much to be determined for the 5-spot, as well as who among the other guards and wings can win minutes. The team has a lot of depth.
The number for the team that was calculated is +5.76. This would put KU at around a 4-seed should it win and lose the expected number of games a team of such strength might. While this may seem a bit bearish, remember that losing Agbaji, McCormack, and Martin to graduation was tough. And losing Braun to the draft was the biggest lost in terms of expectation; him not returning drops the 2023 team down a couple seed-lines.
Worst Case, Best Case, Medium Case
Within reason, the worst case scenario would be for Kansas to struggle due to lack of outside shooting and experience. Teams would force the Hawks to knock down shots; forcing guys like Wilson (26.3%), Harris (32.3%), Yesufu (26.2%), Clemence (27.3%), and McCullar (31.1%) to hit open 3’s (3-point percentage from 2022). Another struggle could be the abundance of depth without much differentiation. The 5-spot is still up for grabs, and the D-1 experience at this position is lacking to say the least. Either freshman big has the athleticism, but can either anchor inside in his first year? Clemence showed some talent last year, but played 10+ minutes in a game only twice the entire season. Cam Martin did get a year of practice to adjust to the speed and talent of this level, but how much of his D-2 success can lever up? It may be that K.J. Adams starts the season at the “5,” at least in the games before KU faces true low-post skill.
The point guard position is also another question. Dejuan Harris is loved by fans, but he hasn’t produced the numbers to match this affection. He will need to be a bigger scorer than he was last year. He scored at a rate below half of what the team did as a whole last year. His offensive value from scoring was -4.11 points below bubble per 100 possessions, easily the worst of the top 8 guys in the rotation. While we expect improvement, it would have to be monumental for Harris to become a top 2 or 3 scorer (as Bart Torvik projects). That kind of leap is rare. Moving on to Yesufu and Pettiford; neither were suitable backups last season. In fact, each was even worse than Harris on offense, along with being subpar defenders. Worst case scenario: KU gets a middling-seed (6 or worse) and gets bounced in the First Round.
Switching gears to a reasonable best-case scenario, Kansas finds a nice rotation of 8-9 guys which balance to fill each position nicely. Wilson has an all-American type year, and bolstered by strong defense, the Jayhawks go on to win 25 or so games and get a top-2 seed in the Tournament. From there, a Final Four run is possible, with a very low chance at cutting down the nets in April. Final Four is a good reasonable goal for the 2023 team.
The medium scenario places KU at about a 4-seed. They will compete with the top teams in the Big 12 and maybe even share the title. The freshmen show potential but also reminders of their age. Jalen has a good but not elite year, and has to carry the team for much of the way. The defense is solid but poor outside shooting occasionally plagues them. A second-weekend NCAA Tournament is within expectation, but after that they should be underdogs in the later rounds barring massive upsets.
Wrapping up Last Season
Finally, we look back at last season’s projections. For a TEAM score, we projected +9.50, which was basically matched at +9.46 following the Big 12 Tournament. Thanks to an outstanding 6-game run in the NCAA Tourney, KU finished at +10.21 to exceed expectations and win the National Championship.
But while the TEAM projection was quite accurate, how the team got there was not. Ochai Agbaji (+4.39) and Christian Braun (+3.91) exceeded their low pre-season estimates. Meanwhile, Remy Martin (+1.06) and David McCormack (+1.35) did not achieve what they had been expected to. Jalen Wilson (+2.31) was another bright spot, whereas Joseph Yesufu (-1.06) was very disappointing as an incoming transfer.
Off to a surprising and thrilling 5-0 start, Jayhawk Football finds itself 1 win away from bowl eligibility. And with each additional win, the prospects of a better bowl game and overall season success grow as well.
Let’s look at the remaining schedule:
Vs. TCU
@ Oklahoma
@ Baylor
Vs. Oklahoma St.
@ Texas Tech
Vs. Texas
@ Kansas St.
Three home games and four road games remain. I’ve made a table which shows each opponent, that opponent’s computer rank, and the chances KU wins that particular game. At the bottom is the expected number of wins in the remaining portion of the schedule (add that number to 5 to get total projected wins), and the chances KU gets at least 6 wins in the regular season.
There are three computer ranks. The first two are known. ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) and Massey Ratings. The third, called Scor150, is a proprietary system that looks only at this season’s results and doesn’t have a preseason element. So let’s compare:
Looking first at FPI, the projected win total for KU is about 6.9. While KU is scheduled to be underdogs in each of its remaining games, none of these games aren’t winnable, so KU should get 1 and perhaps 2 more somewhere along the way.
Massey is a little more optimistic on KU’s chances, at 7.2 expected wins. This site projects KU to be bowl eligible 92.9% of the time.
What these two systems have in common is some preseason element. ESPN appears to have more reliance on the preseason rating, with Massey data mostly being from games played only.
Now, let’s get to the third. This system only looks at data from this season, using score margin to determine the strength of a team. Using historic winning percentage on point spreads, this system estimates KU to have 4 more wins and make a bowl game almost certainly. Again, if this season is truly independent of what teams have done in the past, then we should have strong optimism regarding the remainder of the season. This system also has KU at the highest power ranking (11th), and has teams like Baylor and Oklahoma St. much lower than they otherwise are in other computer rating systems.
Note that Oklahoma St. is undefeated, but it gave up 44 points to Central Michigan in one game and had a non-D1 opponent (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) which doesn’t help it much. It also has a win against Arizona St., which normally seems like a good win. But the Sun Devils lost to Eastern Michigan this year at home. OSU’s only good win is against Baylor. For Baylor, it has a good win at Iowa St. but not much else. Its loss to BYU should give us pause.
The point is not that OSU and Baylor should actually be ranked in the 40’s. After a few more weeks, we should see a clearer picture. But Baylor hasn’t done much to show itself as a top 20 team. And OSU at 6 on Massey is on the basis of being undefeated more than total margin of victory against quality opponents.
The Big 12 is a mess this year, and I mean this in a good way. Sorting teams from 1 to 10 may not be easy, and the regular season winner of the conference may have multiple conference losses. TCU has looked great, so this Saturday will be tough. Don’t lose heart if KU drops a game or two. They should be competitive, and if they continue to fight will earn at least one more regular season victory.
The 2008 Kansas Jayhawks finished with a record of 37-3 (13-3), winning both the Big 12 Regular Season and Conference Tournament. The team earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and won the National Championship. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.
Offense
The 2008 team was so balanced, and this balance applied on offense. It’s top six player accounted from between 9.3 and 13.6 points per game. No one had a shot frequency above 27%. Six of the top seven players had a positive Offensive Adj. PPG +/-, though none scored above +2.00.
Mario Chalmers’ season gets overlooked somewhat due to this balance and a particular shot he is more famous for. But he was very good. Not needing to shoot a ton on volume, he torched the nets with a 60.5% True Shooting percentage, and contributed as an off-guard with assists and ball-handling. Inside, both Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson put together strong seasons on the offensive side of the ball. Sherron Collins, Brandon Rush, and Sasha Kaun were also positive contributors on this end.
The team had a very good score of +6.65.
Defense
The 2008 defense was even better than its offense, and was the team’s calling card for a multi-year period during this era (2006-2008). It isn’t hard to see why. Mario Chalmers getting steals. Brandon Rush locking down. Sasha Kaun grabbing boards and blocking shots. Both Darnell Jackson and Darrell Arthur developed into fine defenders, using their size and athleticism to bother shots both inside and out. Russell Robinson’s score is a little lower than expected during this season, although his pressure defense was unrivaled during his career.
But once again, we see that Chalmers was the team’s most valuable defender. Known for his steals, Mario did a fine job of not over-gambling and kept his man in front quite well.
Adj. PPG +/-
The 2008 team saw 6 players with a PPG +/- score above +2.00, the most of any season for Kansas since 1997. This balance manifested itself throughout the year. Once again, note that Chalmers easily graded out as the team’s MVP. He was efficient on offense and solid on defense. The team’s trio of big men in Arthur, Jackson, and Kaun were excellent as well.
The TEAM score of +15.60 is KU’s best in the last 26 years, with 1997 the next closest.
Rock Chalk Championship
The question this team faced during the year was simply, who will take the big shot when the team needs a bucket in a close NCAA Tournament game? At the time, it was a silly question. Whoever was open was the correct one. But KU would face this dilemma. It needed a play; it needed 3 points. Thankfully Coach Self had a trick up his sleeves. Down 3, with 12 seconds left, he had his best driver race downcourt and flip it to his best shooter coming around on a curl.
David McCormack had his 7th team-MVP game of the season
Game Summary:
David McCormack had 25 points Saturday against Villanova, but none bigger were the 2 he got after rebounding a Christian Braun miss with 5:50 to go. This basket put KU up 8, and Nova would never get closer as KU put the game away during its final run. Ochai Agbaji was on fire from deep (6-7) from 3, and Jalen Wilson’s double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds) and solid defense earned him another quality game.
Both Mitch Lightfoot and Christian Braun did enough to add small value. Braun had a tough first half, but made three huge shots down the stretch to ice the game. Neither Martin nor Harris had great outings, and this was partly due to a difficult matchup at the guard positions.
The five reserves all posted positive games as well, with Joseph Yesufu forcing a turnover.
The TEAM score of +23.40 is KU’s fourth-best of the season, and second consecutive game with a +20 score. The team plays in the National Championship game next.
The 2009 Kansas Jayhawks finished 27-8 (14-2), winning the Big 12 Regular Season. The team earned a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament and made the Sweet 16 before losing. The team’s Sports Reference link is here.
OFFENSE
The 2009 offense was led by junior point guard Sherron Collins, who produced 21 points a game, shooting 29.1% of the time. He added 4.01 points of value above a replacement-level player. Collins’s efficiency was low due to the need for him to generate so much offensive opportunity for the team. Sophomore center Cole Aldrich had a strong true shooting percentage of 59.4%. A solid offensive rebounder, Aldrich was the team’s most efficient rotation player and provided +2.41 points of value. Junior Mario Little was the team’s third-most valuable offensive player, buttressed by strong rebounding and low turnover numbers. Freshmen Marcus Morris and Tyshawn Taylor were the other two rotation players to add value on offense.
DEFENSE
On defense, Cole Aldrich anchored the team to the tune of +3.14 points of value per game. Aldrich was able to dominate inside, blocking shots and rebounding the ball, limiting easy baskets and second chance opportunities. The other Jayhawks did their part on this end, with Marcus Morris and RS junior Brady Morningstar adding nearly a point of value each. The team’s defense was what carried it.
Total Adjusted PPG +/-
Cole Aldrich was the team’s most valuable player for the 2009 season, and had the 8th most-valuable season for a Jayhawk over the 26-season period of 1997-2022. With the caveat that not all defensive information was available for this season, Aldrich graded out as the best interior defender in the Bill Self era (2004-2022). His running mate Sherron Collins was not far behind, generating his value from offense. Collins posted only 1 of 10 +4.00 offensive value scores from 1997-2022. Marcus Morris was also a solid piece for the 2009 team, as his +1.21 score was nice value from a true freshman.
This chart helps to visualize where KU was getting its value. Brady Morningstar, who finished second in minutes played, likely played too much given his low offensive output. With multiple newcomers, the team relied heavily on its key returnees and hoped that its role players would do enough to keep the team competitive. For the most part, this was the case.
The 2009 team won the Big 12 Regular Season title, KU’s 5th in a string of 14 in a row, and had two solid outings in the NCAA Tournament to avoid potential upset bids and make the Sweet 16. With a rematch against a Michigan State team that soundly beat them the first time, Kansas jumped out to an early lead but lost control down the stretch and ultimately, also lost the game. Following the 2008 championship and departure of so many key players, the 2009 season was proof that Kansas was the caliber of program that would reload, not rebuild.
Sherron Collins scored 32 points in KU’s R64 84-74 win over NDSU.Cole Aldrich had a triple-double in KU’s R32 60-43 win over Dayton
David McCormack had his 6th team-MVP of the season
Game Summary:
Down 6 at halftime, not much was going well for Kansas. The team was only 13-31 from the floor (0-5 on 3’s), and worse still from the free-throw line (3-9). Despite the size and athletic advantage, the Hawks were being outrebounded 17 to 16. The results by player were mixed…Ochai Agbaji was playing okay; 6 points on 3-5 shooting, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 assist. Remy Martin also had 6 points on 3-7 shooting. Jalen Wilson had yet to score.
But David McCormack was quietly having a good game. He had 7 points in 10 minutes on 3-3 shooting, making his only FT attempt as well. He added 2 rebounds and had a +/- of +3, one of only 2 Jayhawks to have a positive first half +/-. Defensively, he only gave up 2 points in the half.
It makes sense that he would be the one to lead Kansas back in the second half. D-Mac scored the first 5 Kansas points (cutting the 29-35 deficit to 34-35). But his biggest highlight was in the midst of a 16-2 run. After Jalen Wilson missed a transition shot, McCormack pulled down an offensive rebound in traffic, battled through the contact, and finished for an and-1 to put KU up 7. His FT made it 8, and KU would never see the lead dip below 6 following that play.
When he checked out at 12:25, KU was up 7 and would go on another extended run to put the game away. Although Ochai Agbaji was the team’s leading scorer with 18 points, McCormack was the team’s most valuable player, adding 15 points while giving up only 2. He added 3 rebounds as well. This was McCormack’s first MVP since the first TCU game.
KU dominated the interior, as Mitch Lightfoot’s minutes were nearly equally as valuable as McCormack’s. But Mitch did it a little differently. Scoring 9 points, Mitch added more activity on defense, blocking a shot and getting boards. He also drew a charge. But like McCormack, he only allowed 2 points on defense.
Ochai Agbaji broke out of his slump to finish with 18 points. He was also active on defense, coming away with 4 steals. Remy Martin had his lowest scoring output of the NCAA Tournament, with 9, but he did other things to help his team win. 3 assists. 4 defensive rebounds. Solid perimeter defense. Ditto for Dejuan Harris. A nifty layup was part of the 5 points he scored, but he also added 4 assists and played stingy defense. After Kameron McGusty lit up KU in the first half, Harris took away Miami’s best weapon during the second half with strong defensive energy. Christian Braun had big plays in the second half, and although his score finished up below 0, it was due to him allowing points in the first half. He made adjustments and played well for Kansas when it counted.
The reserves also had good moments. Joseph Yesufu drew a charge. Jalen Coleman-Lands (finally) hit a 3, but he also played solid defense during the first half to not allow any points. Speaking of solid defense, K.J. Adams made an excellent block to keep KU within 6 at the end of the first half. Zach Clemence grabbed a board and Chris Teahan missed his only shot attempt.
A TEAM score of 26.53 is KU’s second-best outing of the year, only behind the Baylor game. Kansas is Final Four bound, and is playing its best ball at the right time. In its 7 post-season games, the Hawks are averaging a team score of +14.69.
Charting the Hawks 