With the National Championship game ending the 2026 college basketball season last night and the final adjustments made to the computer metrics, we can put a bow on the 2026 Kansas Jayhawks. The final value metrics have been posted, and now we will assess the season.
For the fourth year in a row, the program failed to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. While we don’t need to cloud the 2026 team’s positives and negatives with what much-different-looking past KU teams did, it is part of the narrative post-2022 championship.
Looking at average game score (which correlates strongly with Adjusted Efficiency metrics), KU was a +7.81 team in 2026. This is higher than any of the previous three seasons (+7.19 in ’25, +3.65 in ’24, and +6.65 in ’25). This team was also a bit better in clutch situations than the 2025 team, winning close games against Tennessee, TCU, and Texas Tech.
This game score was over 4 points better than our (admittedly conservative) preseason projection of +3.62. To speak in a more-understandable language; we had KU as a 7-seed coming into the season and the Hawks earned a 4-seed thanks to its regular season resume. KU was able to integrate the new guys fairly well in the early season, and actually dealt rather well without Darryn Peterson on the court. Strangely it was the team’s inability to play well with their star freshman that hurt their chances at a deep March run.
KU had to replace its entire starting lineup from the prior season, and it only brought back one rotation player from the previous year. I know the narrative surrounding the Hunter Dickinson era was mostly negative, but even in the portal era it isn’t easy to build a mostly brand new team and expect to be elite. Earning a 4-seed and being good enough to compete to make a second weekend was the most-realistic goal this team really should have had, but the way in which things turned out still seems sour.
The expectation of the 2026 team was that it would need to play around star freshman Darryn Peterson, but after his injuries started looking worse and there became more uncertainty around his availability, the team rallied to win some big games without him. KU rattled off 8 in a row during the midst of conference play, including huge wins against Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, and Arizona, making it seem like this year was going to be a better result come March. But, like the last few years, the team played poorly down the stretch.
Peterson, for his part, played great. We will get to individual performances later, but he was quite efficient given his high shot volume. It was the other starters who performed worse with him than they did in games without him. Council was +1.98 value points per game better in games without Peterson, White was +2.36, Bidunga was +3.42, and Tiller was +1.04. With fewer shots to go around for the others when Peterson was in, they failed to pick up the load in other areas, such as defense, assisting, rebounding, or good offensive movement. Kansas struggled to adjust to teams playing aggressive defense on Darryn, and this was reflected across the board with everyone adding less value.
How much of this is coaching is an open question this charting system cannot answer. Ultimately the team’s success comes down to the coaching staff, who recruits and develops the players, with this final judgment being on the head coach who makes the final decisions on these things and who also maintains his staff. We will say that KU’s offense has struggled in three recent seasons despite personnel turnover. It has been the 59th ranked (2024), 52nd ranked (2025), and now 58th ranked (2026) offense. Particularly this season, the ball movement wasn’t great when compared to watching other teams. The individual “factors” are tough to fully judge in relation to other teams due to the fact KU played a difficult schedule (third best nationally according to KenPom), but Kansas didn’t shoot it great, hit the offensive glass hard, or get to the line enough. Depth was an overlooked factor too as KU’s top four guys did finish as comfortably-positive offensive contributors. It was the remaining rotation players who were well-below bubble-level.
What follows is a recap of how each player did. Again, how much of this was due to the coaching staff either using or not using the player appropriately isn’t something we are answering. We will address players in the order they are listed on the 2026 page. Presumed starters at the beginning of the year followed by the rest of the rotation in terms of projected depth.
Darryn Peterson (Fr.)
Projected: +6.45 Per100 on 80% mins, +3.61 PPGAB
Actual: +11.86 Per100 on 49.4% mins, +5.82 PPGAB
As the most-hyped freshman in the Bill Self tenure, hopes were riding high on Peterson, and on paper he delivered with excellent value marks. We slotted him where a top recruit normally performs his freshman season, and Peterson surpassed what the others have done at Kansas. Darryn would wind up playing just shy of half the possible minutes there were due to ongoing injury issues, but he closed the season playing full minutes over the team’s final 9 games. He was there when the team really needed him to be. This should be the narrative about Peterson’s availability when we look back on this season.
As far as his value metrics in terms of KU history (since 1993), he will leave Lawrence posting the sixth-highest Per100 season (second-best among guards – 2017 Frank Mason) at the 98.2%ile. Peterson will post the second-highest offensive PPGAB mark (again 2017 Mason), doing so on high volume while maintaining team-level efficiency. He showed a remarkable ability to score the ball in individual situations. In his one season at Kansas, he posted +4.67 WAR and 139.74 PAB, the latter of which ranks as the best among all freshman one-and-dones and second behind only Dedric Lawson among one-year KU players since 1993. And all this despite Peterson playing half of the available minutes on the season.
Along with leading the 2026 team in Per100 and PPGAB, Peterson led the team in POCWAB despite missing 11 games. Of the 24 he played, he finished above-bubble in 20 of them with 5 of those being +10 value games. Peterson’s best game score of the season came against BYU (+14.76) when he helped the Jayhawks build up a huge lead in Allen Fieldhouse before he sat out with cramping for most of the second half. Darryn also had memorable moments helping KU win some games, including his clutch performance at the FT stripe against TCU (hitting the 3 FT’s to tie the game) and his two late threes to steal a win in Lubbock.
Did he match the hype? Most people will say no. But perhaps the hype was higher than it should have been. Darryn was KU’s most-valuable freshman talent since at least Danny Manning, and whatever pro career he ends up having will likely be quite successful. He wasn’t sitting out games because he wanted to, and when fully healthy gave Kansas good minutes down the stretch.
Melvin Council (Sr.)
Projected: +3.40 Per100 on 80% mins, +1.90 PPGAB
Actual: +6.06 Per100 on 86.3% mins, +3.57 PPGAB
In the preseason we hoped Council could be a hustle/energy guy alongside Peterson, and he provided more than that, particularly early, due to Peterson’s absence. Council gave Kansas durability and production, earning value marks that place him in the 81.8%ile among rotation players since 1993. He was essentially the value of 1996 Jacque Vaughn and did about everything you could ask for a one-year player. Council will grade out as the team’s best defender on a per game basis (and barely second-best on a Per100). He didn’t do anything flashy, he wasn’t someone who got a lot of steals, but he didn’t get beat or take possessions off. He played the game the right way and was rewarded for it in the value scores.
Melvin was the team MVP in 7 games, with his best performance famously coming against N.C. State in mid-December. Council finished with 36 points to lead KU to a 1-point OT win, earning a game score of +18.71. He also gained confidence by showing he could hit open 3’s and score when the team needed him to. Council didn’t play as well when Peterson returned, but he did eventually get things going in the team’s final game against St. John’s. Melvin finished with 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists in what could have been an all-time comeback.
Claiming the reputation of being a “dawg,” Melvin’s persistence and hustle throughout the season earned him this title and became a fan favorite. Council in one season will leave with as much WAR (+5.07) and PAB (+124.88) as Andrew Wiggins. Not bad for a one-year player.
Kohl Rosario (Fr.)
Projected: -4.70 Per100 on 40% mins, -1.32 PPGAB
Actual: -1.02 Per100 on 23.9% mins, -0.20 PPGAB
Rosario played enough early that he was the starting wing for the Jayhawks before losing both his starting job and role in the rotation. He didn’t shoot the ball well on the season from 3, finishing 18-63 (28.6%). Along with his limited offensive creation (13 total assists, 8 total FT attempts), the coaches looked elsewhere for minutes. After the first game of conference play, the only real extended court time he saw in high-leverage moments was against St. John’s when his energy helped bring the team back.
Despite shooting poorly from the outside, Rosario was a solid finisher in the paint when he had the opportunity to finish. He went 19-24 on 2’s, most of them dunks/putbacks, and his 26 offensive rebounds ranked him third on a per-minute basis. He was adequate taking care of the ball, so this also helped his value marks.
But it was on defense where he gained value, stingily allowing only 10.4 points per 60 possessions to add +3.05 points of value per 100 on this end. With his size and athleticism, he was able to guard multiple positions and discourage opponents from getting good looks.
For a true freshman who didn’t have the highest recruiting ranks (partly due to him “reclassifying”), he played well and looked the part athletically.
Tre White (Sr.)
Projected: +3.10 Per100 on 60% mins, +1.30 PPGAB
Actual: +3.89 Per100 on 77.8% mins, +2.06 PPGAB
Tre played a larger role than he had in prior seasons on prior teams, and a larger role than we had projected. He was KU’s best offensive weapon in the absence of Peterson, and one of the bigger regrets we should have with this team is that it couldn’t find a way for Tre to stay productive in the games Peterson was playing.
Still, White shot career highs from 3 (40.3%) and the free throw line (87.2%) this season. He added more value on offense than defense for a team that was limited on offense. He was a solid rebounder playing the hybrid 3/4 role and posted a positive defensive score for someone having to play a number of mismatches on that end.
White had 7 MVP games for the Jayhawks, though only 1 of those came after January. Beginning in conference play and on through the Tournament, Tre’s PPGAB score of +0.55 was far lower than his excellent start to the season in the non-con (+4.62). He didn’t play as well when Darryn came back and was taking more shots.
For a one-year player, Tre’s closest comparison is Zeke Mayo. KU could do much worse with a one-year veteran than they did with Tre White.
Flory Bidunga (Sr.)
Projected: +4.25 Per100 on 65% mins, +1.93 PPGAB
Actual: +6.86 Per100 on 77.5% mins, +3.62 PPGAB
Flory is our fifth player in a row to reach and exceed his Per100 and PPGAB projections, and where the team really benefited was in his ability to play extended minutes after a foul-plagued freshman season. Flo was deadly in the pick-n-roll, finishing on a number of lobs to fire up the crowd. Winning the Big12 defensive player of the year award, he was an extraordinary rim-protector and solid rebounder but someone who was likely a bit overvalued due to him being caught against a guard on the occasional switch. But of the top 7 players in terms of minutes played, he finished only slightly below Melvin Council for overall defense.
Bidunga had some excellent games and finished as the team MVP in 11. His best was against Baylor (+20.30) where he allowed only a single point to his defensive ledger. KU’s front court wasn’t deep in 2026, so Bidunga’s ability to play 25+ minutes in all but one game (a blow-out win against A&M CC) was very important.
Flo’s Per100 value this season put him in the 85.8%ile among Kansas rotation players since 1993, which is right alongside 2008 Darnell Jackson. He was very much a KU-level player as a sophomore, improving on his Per100 by 3.74 value points. Having played two seasons, Bidunga’s career marks in WAR rank 45th and PAB 38th.
Bryson Tiller (Fr.)
Projected: -5.36 Per100 on 25% mins, -0.94 PPGAB
Actual: -4.66 Per100 on 65.1% mins, -2.06 PPGAB
Tiller played a much bigger role for Kansas than expected. The freshman big had been injured the year prior and not much was known about his readiness, but he answered a lot of doubters early when he hit four 3’s against North Carolina to help KU build a halftime lead. Eventually he would win the starting job and KU would play big more than small, but it’s clear the coaches played him too much and he would eventually be exposed when facing up against more-experienced opponents.
Tiller’s Per100 marks were near or slightly better than where we’d think them to be given his recruiting ranks, but due to his minutes being so high, his per game marks were quite ugly (third-worst season among KU players since ’93).
Bryson has skill, but he has a long way to go to turn this into value. He didn’t have a single game where he finished as the team MVP and had 3 games where his unadjusted value score was worse than the final margin. The rest of the team only had 2 combined times where this happened. Bryson being overexposed is probably the worse thing for the 2026 team. Had it had a solid veteran piece that could play the 4, it would have been far better and gotten the best out of Tiller in a more-limited role.
Elmarko Jackson (RS So.)
Projected: -5.25 Per100 on 20% of mins, -0.74 PPGAB
Actual: -1.06 Per100 on 42.8% of mins, -0.32 PPGAB
Jackson is now the 7th player in a row to reach his value mark projection on Per100, and despite a slow start and infamous finish, he actually played much better this season than he did two seasons ago as a true freshman. Jackson shot 37.2% from 3, 82.5% from the line, and improved nearly everywhere (including defense) in the value metrics department.
Elmarko had his best game against Oklahoma State, scoring 14 to post his first career team MVP outing. He also had solid moments against Tennessee, UConn, and Kansas State (17, 11, and 19 points). While not really a true PG or SG, he filled in as a backup that could do a little of either, and he was certainly KU’s best option off the bench for that role.
Jackson still made some bad decisions this year, including his overly intense defense in the final possession of the season to give up a driving layup with only a few seconds left. But overall he wasn’t a terrible player for his role.
Jayden Dawson (Sr.)
Projected: -1.05 Per100 on 50% of mins, -0.37 PPGAB
Actual: -2.53 Per100 on 16.3% of mins, -0.41 PPGAB
An early transfer-portal signee, Dawson’s lack of playing time was surprising. But the senior could never really get going, shooting 27.9% from 3 on the season. The most points he scored in a game in a Jayhawk uniform was 7 against A&M CC in 20 minutes. He would play a season-high of 28 minutes against Duke a week later, but after this he wouldn’t do much.
Reputably a shooter, Dawson’s defense was the hidden asset of his game, and he would post the best coverage defense and overall Per100 defensive score among rotation players (those with 10%+ minutes played). He likely should have gotten more of a chance, but at the same time he never really did much to help KU win a game when he did play.
Jamari McDowell (RS So.)
Projected: -5.15 Per100 on 15% of mins, -0.54 PPGAG
Actual: -4.86 Per100 on 42.9% of mins, -1.42 PPGAB
Jamari improved his outside shooting quite a bit over his redshirt season, and for 2026 would go on to make 34.9% of his 3’s. He was a far better shooter at home than away from Allen Fieldhouse, however, and him playing as many minutes as he did was not a good thing for the team.
McDowell finished right at bubble-level defensively (-0.10 Per100) but his offense was plagued by low scoring marks and inability to do anything except shoot 3’s. Jamari did earn a team MVP game against Davidson, but he wasn’t consistently good enough throughout the season.
Self went with someone he knew for that final bench spot in the rotation, preferring to play the third year in the program guy over any of the incomers, and this may have hurt the team’s chances in March.
Paul Mbiya (Fr.)
Projected: -6.41 Per100 on 20% of mins, -0.90 PPGAB
Actual: -3.81 Per100 on 7.5% of mins, -0.33 PPGAB
Mbiya emerged later in the year after not playing much early, posting his two-highest games played in the NCAA Tournament (16 and 13 minutes). Still very raw, he struggled to show much offensive skill but his size and knack for the ball proved valuable on the glass (+5.65 total rebounding point value Per100, highest on the team). He also had a nice basket against Tennessee in the Player’s Era Tournament to help KU get a huge non-conference win.
Paul’s best game came against Cal Baptist in the Round of 64, scoring 8 points and getting credit for some possessions won that the official box score didn’t catch. Another “what if” scenario to this season is his development…had he developed a bit earlier could he have helped the team find a bit more success?
Samis Calderon (Fr.)
Projected: -5.64 Per100 on 20% of mins, -0.79 PPGAB
Actual: -13.62 Per100 on 4.7% of mins, -0.95 PPGAB
Calderon’s game was more perimeter based than we initially thought, but just as with most of the other freshmen his offensive game was far too underdeveloped to be of much help. He scored 6 total points this season, with only 1 of those coming after the new year, with his 14 minutes against Towson being the high mark of playing time all year. Self would try him on occasion if others were struggling, but his 3 minutes against TCU kind of ended that experiment.
Samis wasn’t ready to perform at this level. We were a bit surprised given some of the reputation he came in with.
Nginyu Ngala (Sr.)
Projected: -6.04 Per100 on 15% of mins, -0.63 PPGAB
Actual: +5.45 Per100 on 2.8% of mins, +0.31 PPGAB
We weren’t sure at all how to forecast Ngala, but it ended up not mattering as he really didn’t play. When he did appear in the early season buy games, he played exceptionally well, scoring 16 points over 19 minutes of action against Green Bay, A&M CC, and Princeton. He wouldn’t score again the rest of the season.
Ngala’s only real high-leverage minutes came against Syracuse for a brief spell and (sort of) against K-State on Senior Day at the beginning. Undersized, he wasn’t really taken advantage of much while on defense (+6.94 Per100 defensively), though this was certainly sample-size related. What we liked about Gee was his ball-skills. It’s unfortunate KU couldn’t find a way to use his dribbling, passing, and shooting abilities; particularly in games where the team struggled to take care of the ball or run effective offense.
Final Thoughts on Projections vs. Actuals
The initial projections were made with a lot of uncertainty due to the number of new guys on the team, and this uncertainty wasn’t just on the value-points end but also on the minutes-played end. We realized quite early that Tiller was going to be the second-most-played big on the team and that Jayden Dawson’s injury put his status up in the air. But we were also fooled into thinking that Rosario would play more than we projected (he wound up losing the starting role and playing far less in conference play). For future seasons, there’s likely not much more we can do. Perhaps we should shift the projections to after the preseason games as this would help with accuracy, though one point to doing projections is to take a look at the team before knowing much about them. It’s good to see the difference in perspective from beginning to end of the season. We aren’t trying to bat 1.000, we’re more trying to show how much a season of play can change our minds about certain players.
It’s weird to say that KU’s individuals mostly exceeded expectation while the team barely did, but that’s kind of what happened. We did caveat the projections by mentioning that we expected those beating expectation to get more minutes, which meant adding a reversion up factor to the final team estimate. But if anything, KU may have lost out on potential value due to playing time decisions. Bryson Tiller playing 65.1% of minutes vs. Kohl Rosario at 23.9% of minutes seems to be one glaring misstep here, particularly after Rosario’s energy helped spur a late comeback in the Round of 32 game. Jayden Dawson probably should have played more and Jamari McDowell less. Would more of Paul Mbiya earlier on have changed the team’s fortunes any? Tough to say, but he stepped up when called upon in the NCAA Tournament.
Another area we will keep a close eye on is the shifting trend in college basketball where there are more dominant teams relative to the average D1 team. Simply put, the transfer portal and NIL era has tilted the balance of power more toward the power conference teams, and compared to average the typical bubble team and typical 1-seed has gotten stronger. This trickles down to the individual level as well when thinking of the hypothetical “above-bubble” player we use as a benchmark. For KU in 2026, the team might have been a touch stronger relative to the field in past seasons. Its final KenPom mark of +24.15 was actually higher than its final mark in 2023, when it was +22.85 as a 1-seed and regular season Big 12 Champions. For all the talk of this team being down, it wasn’t that far off from other Jayhawk teams in the Bill Self era. But gone are the days where you can win enough games without a truly-loaded roster. Your worst starter and main bench pieces have to be better than what Tiller, Jackson, and McDowell provided.
Charting the Hawks 
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