KU received a 4-seed on Selection Sunday and will face 13-seed Cal Baptist on Friday night. Here are some listed chances for a KU Round of 64 win:
- KU -14.5 points (implied 93.0% looking at historic lines)
- KU ML -1200/+750 CBU (implied 88.7% looking at equal expected $ outcome)
- ESPN BPI: 92.6%
- KenPom: 86.7%
- Torvik: 85.4%
- EvanMiya: 92.4%
- Historic 4 over 13: 79.4%
The range spans from under 80% to 93% depending on source. 4-seeds have won almost exactly 4 of 5 First Round games since 1985, but this year the gap between the top teams and bottom teams is wider than average. This doesn’t guarantee Kansas a win of course, but it does provide more margin of error for the Jayhawks. Should KU go on to win that one, here are some odds for KU’s success moving forward by successive round.
| Source | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | CG | NC |
| KenPom | 86.7% | 45.5% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Torvik | 85.4% | 43.0% | 10.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Miya | 92.4% | 40.4% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
The betting odds imply a KU national championship 0.8% of the time, a bit higher than these models but still quite low.
So expectations are low (and should be). But KU has a real chance to make the second weekend, and as a 4-seed should be expecting to do so, and after that they just need to believe anything can happen. KU’s path isn’t unfair or harder than it should be or something. They just need to show up and play hard.
Charting the Hawks 
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