Elmarko Jackson, Darryn Peterson, and Conceptualizing Player Value

Since our last write-up in the 2026 season, a lot has happened. KU now sits at 10-3 and in a tie for third place in the Big 12, only 1 game back of first, and is positioned as the 10th best team in Bracket Matrix (corresponding to a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament). KU is far closer to the optimistic outlook we presented about 6 weeks ago, though things haven’t turned out exactly like we imagined.

Let’s start with Elmarko Jackson, a player Kansas fans have been overlooking due to the on-again, off-again status of Darryn Peterson (more below on him). In our Christmas Break Recap earlier in the season, we had this to say about Elmarko:

While everyone has bad games, Jackson needs to find a way to make his bad games not outright terrible ones. Either way, Self is likely playing him too many minutes.

At that point Jackson had not been playing well, matching his disappointing freshman season, but ever since the third game of conference play he’s really turned things around. In fact when you look at the numbers, its kind of shocking. In these 10 most-recent games he’s played in (he missed the Utah game due to injury), Elmarko is putting up +2.96 PPGAB/+8.95 Per100, doing this both on offense and defense. For the season he’s now a -0.22 PPGAB/-0.70 Per100 player, solidifying KU’s bench.

Jackson had his best game of his career against Oklahoma State last night, going for 14 points, 4 assists, and 3 rebounds on efficient shooting numbers; but also defending well. This earned Jackson a team-MVP in our system and career-first +10 outing. While defense tends to fluctuate some game-to-game based on matchups and what the opponent does, Elmarko’s season-long defensive value is in the green (+1.41 Per100) indicating he has become a reliable defender.

Now onto Darryn Peterson. Peterson looked absolutely unstoppable out the gates against the Cowboys, scoring 13 points before the first TV timeout, and he coasted to a 23-point, 18-minute performance before sitting the bulk of the second half. Peterson checking himself out for cramps was met with much hostility by the fans, and their frustration is understandable if not a bit overblown.

In Peterson’s defense, he added an estimated 8.63 points over a hypothetical bubble-level player last night. On a per possession basis this is even more impressive given he only played 18 minutes (+26.71 Per100!), but the main point here is that if you can only get some of Darryn, you take it. Kansas building a big first half lead thanks in large part to his shooting and defensive attention allowed the team to play less-than-inspired ball the second half and still win comfortably. This has happened more than once this season–that Peterson doesn’t finish a game but KU not really need him to because he helped them grow a lead during the first half. Fans would be better to appreciate this aspect.

Still, the unpredictability of the situation isn’t ideal. Peterson checking himself out and casually sitting there or riding an exercise bike (while not returning) reeks of self-interest (i.e. show the scouts his obviously superior talent while not risking further injury) that can hurt the team long term. Will he be able to go a full game if/when the team needs him in the NCAA Tournament? If he doesn’t do so in the regular season (or does so sparingly), what confidence is there he can do so when the games really matter?

Let’s put aside a few talking points that have been debunked. Many fans were speculating that Peterson was “done” back in November/December. They were clearly wrong. Darryn has played in 11 of 13 conference games and finished one with a sore ankle (Colorado). He also effectively won the Texas Tech game down the stretch with two late 3’s. He has clearly added value to this team during the season. His POCWAB is also +2.48, a solid mark (third on the team) that can also isolate player value by weighting quality opponents and utilizing total performance.

Finally, let’s explore some conceptual elements of player value. Conceptually, when Peterson plays, he makes the team better by scoring efficiently (you need points to win), forcing opponents to concentrate on guarding him (which should help his teammates get better shots), and eating minutes (meaning KU’s other starters can rest while the bench doesn’t need to play as much). That’s why fans should recognize the difference between playing 20 minutes vs. 0. Peterson has played 57% of available minutes in conference play. While it would be better at 75-80%, this is far better than him sitting.

But concept is different from result. In games Darryn has played, KU is a +9.23 team, while in games he’s missed they’re a +10.99 team. Some of this may be due to KU loading up against non-power conference teams during the portion of the season Peterson was injured (and outperforming the adjustment factor against these weaker foes), but if we isolate only the games against top 100 KenPom teams, KU is a +8.41 team with and a +10.52 without. They’ve played well with him; they’ve played well without him. They’ve had down games with him and down games without him. This isn’t to say that KU would be as good or better without him for a full season or that KU’s ceiling isn’t higher with him, but that sometimes numbers show funny things.

According to Hoop Explorer, KU is only slightly better with Peterson on the floor than they are with him off it (about 1.5 points per 100). This puts him behind Council, Bidunga, Tiller, and McDowell. While On/Off data can fluctuate, more data is needed (likely 100 games worth), and the function of who replaces you matters (that’s one reason why Flory’s On/Off is so positive, KU is better with 2 bigs and doesn’t have a good one behind him); Peterson’s impact should be higher than it is.

KU’s offense has been better in DP games (+4.38 vs. +2.07) but its defense has been far inferior (+4.85 vs. +8.92). With defense being a bit less predictable maybe randomness is at play, but at the same time KU really locks in defensively without DP. And while Peterson has good defensive skills, he doesn’t always have the motor to play 100% and will give up occasional open looks or transition opportunities. On the season he is right at bubble-level defensively (+0.08 PPGAB/+0.18 Per100), which when paired with his elite offensive game isn’t necessarily bad.

Player Value Thru 26 Games in 2026

For posterity, here was how things stood on 2/19/2026. KU has 5 regular season games remaining and at least 1 Big 12 Tournament and 1 NCAA Tournament game to play.