Through 5 Games – Peterson is Currently Out

The 2026 season is turning into another one of “those” seasons. Like 2024, when KU was without Kevin McCullar for much of conference play, hoping he would be healthy enough for the NCAA Tournament, only to find out a few days before the First Round that he wasn’t going to play again for KU. (That same season there was question about Hunter Dickinson’s availability, as the center did miss the Big 12 game with injury). Or like 2014 when Joel Embiid’s seemingly-mild back injury lingered until the tournament. We were told that Embiid might have returned if the team made it to the Sweet 16, but this is tough to believe in retrospect. Or what about 2015? Kansas lost burgeoning big man Cliff Alexander to an eligibility concern late in the season, never to play him again as he was never cleared. The Hawks lost an interior presence and solid scorer en route to a Round of 32 loss. Remember 2018? That’s when KU’s fan base waited and waited for a thin frontcourt to get needed depth, hoping that Billy Preston and/or Silvio De Sousa would get NCAA clearance. Finally De Sousa was cleared (this turned out to be a pyrrhic victory) but Preston would never suit up to play for Kansas in a regular season game. 2011 was a bit similar with Josh Selby. As was 2016 with Cheick Diallo. In the end, both heralded prospects would eventually be allowed to play though there was still drama as to when they could see the court. We could throw 2019 in the mix with Udoka Azubuike’s injury, the difference being that after the news broke that Doke was hurt we were informed that his injury was a season-ender. 2023 wasn’t great either; we saw Coach Bill Self’s health scare, and the team was without their hall-of-famer for the Big 12 and NCAA Tournaments. 2022’s Remy drama turned out for the best given how the season ended, but this was yet another incident in what seems like the endless off-court saga surrounding Kansas basketball. We could also throw in the Arterio Morris situation, everything that surrounded the FBI investigation and NCAA scandal, and of course yearly recruiting/portal drama.

What these incidents share in common, for the most part, is that there is an important Kansas player that is out indefinitely. Desiring information as to how long said player is expected to be out, the media asks Coach Self for details about the situation. Then, Coach Self gives a pseudo-answer couched in vague phrasing, leading to the fan base to go read between the lines or outright speculate as to what’s really going on. This season, this drama has centered around top recruit Darryn Peterson and his cramping hamstring injury¹.

When he plays, Peterson has looked exceptional in his 2 official games (and 3 total including the first exhibition). He has scored, handled, and defended like a professional. His charted value has matched the eye-test, producing a PPGAB of +8.72 and Per100 of +20.35 in 50 minutes of regular season play. Peterson’s value above bubble is all offensive-based, indicating sustainability. One assumes his defense will level out at a solid number (maybe around +1.00).

But this is all for naught if he doesn’t return. No matter how good of a teammate he is, the Jayhawks need him on the floor. The fact he isn’t, combined with the fact there has been conflicting information on his injury, combined also with the fact it seems like something similar happens every year at KU, combined with the fact that KU has struggled (relative to expectations) in recent seasons has put an already fidgety fan base further on edge. Assume Peterson can come back, and assuming this injury doesn’t recur at an inopportune time, KU has a competitive team with pro talent, athleticism, and depth across the board. But that’s a few big “ifs.”

Regardless of Peterson’s availability, Kansas will need other players to add value if it wants to maximize its chances of success this season, and the two that have emerged as clear value-adders this year are Flory Bidunga (+5.01/+10.80) and Tre White (+2.36/+5.22). Both have been extremely efficient (75.0% TS% for Bidunga; 70.3% TS% for White) with the big difference so far being that Bidunga has added defensive value while White has lost value on this end. I’d like to see about 12-15 games before really judging defense, but for White this is partly due to him being asked to carry more of the offensive load. He’s scored in double figures in the team’s last four games, working hard to get to the line (attempted 29 FT’s, nearly 6 per game) instead of settling for less-efficient jump shots.

After these two, senior transfers Melvin Council (+1.24/+2.45) and Jayden Dawson (+0.72/+2.24) have been serviceable KU-level rotation-types. Neither has shot the ball all that well, so hopefully there is additional room for growth if shots start falling. Both are competing defensively and have added value by being in the right spot and not giving up numerous easy baskets. I think Dawson in particular will have to start hitting shots, as his current defensive value (+2.13 per game) is likely unsustainable.

Next is a couple of freshmen who people are excited about, but the value scores have started to reveal that these players are indeed still freshmen. Kohl Rosario (-1.30/-3.33) and Bryson Tiller (-1.49/-4.17) have each shown signs of athleticism and skill. Each belongs on this team, and getting a second and third year at this program will only pay dividends for both Kansas and their future pro careers. But this season, there have been signs that their games have much improvement to do. Rosario has shot the ball poorly from downtown (yet continues to hoist up tough shots) and can get lost on defense by over-pursuing at times. Tiller’s defense isn’t great, but while he has been shooting well from deep he hasn’t scored inside enough or shown enough skill that he can make plays on the block. Given his height and frame, he needs to be more than just a pick-n-pop threat.

This is KU’s clear top seven, though it is currently six with Peterson’s injury. And that is another thing that shouldn’t get missed. Peterson’s absence hurts Kansas in two ways. Obviously the team is worse when he is not out there. KU’s #2 scoring threat has to become the #1 option, #3 has to slide up to #2, and so on. But the less-obvious way it hurts Kansas is due to depth. KU now has to go deeper into its bench. Let’s look at how that bench is doing.

KU has two returning perimeter players, both of whom are redshirt sophomores after having sat out last season. Jamari McDowell (-0.38/-2.69) has played less (20.5% mins) but been a bit more valuable than Elmarko Jackson (-3.93/-13.71) (42.0% mins). Both have been poor offensively (McDowell -8.40 Per100, Jackson -12.83 Per100) with McDowell grading out better on the defensive side of things in the early-goings. If we’re being frank, neither has shown any reason why he should be playing outside of garbage time.

Other potential minutes, this time at the forward/center positions, are Paul Mbiya (-0.53/-5.39) and Samis Calderon (-0.76/-6.59). Neither has shown much offensive ability at the major conference level. Spot minutes, particularly to spell those in foul trouble, would be all one could expect here.

This is the top 11 players in terms of minutes played, with 7 clearly being at or above the line while 4 are below it. Still there is one final player that needs consideration – Nginyu Ngala. Gee has only played in the 3 home bye games so far, but he is playing very well in these (+3.78/+34.39). While this value has been put up against inferior competition, the numbers are adjusted to account for opponent quality. Look, we’ve seen what Jackson and McDowell can do, and even against lesser opponents they are still limited in their offensive games. Ngala has skill. His size will limit his role, true, but if his role is KU’s 8th/9th man, one assumes the team would get more from him than they would others in back-up roles on the perimeter.

The TEAM has produced a +5.61/+8.23 value score, putting them above-bubble but on pace for a middling seed. KU is actually above-bubble without Peterson because he has only played in 2 games, but if we look at the rest of the team for guys who’ve played 10%+ minutes, we’re looking at a +1.00 PPGAB team. While trading out Jackson’s minutes for Ngala’s would likely help some, there’s no way that Gee continues to play like an all-American with more exposure (and Jackson will likely regress up some anyway). Still, without Peterson Kansas is not a solid NCAA Tournament team (I’d give them a 60% chance). They need Darryn back.

1. Seriously, how do cramps go to hamstring injury? The information we get from Self in these instances is always a bit off. Simply stating something clearly and with authority would help out most of the time. ↩︎