2026 Projections

Initially written on 10/14/2025, published on 10/23/2025.

The 2026 Kansas Jayhawks are almost a brand-new team from the year before, making the exercise of projecting how the team will do a much different task than in prior seasons. With transfer portal players, international recruits, and multiple true freshmen on the team for the upcoming season, how these pieces fit together is something that no one is quite sure of yet.

Team Projection: +3.62

Our projection is that the 2026 Kansas Jayhawks are going to be about 3.62 points better than a bubble-team, which would translate to a +19.17 KenPom rating and an average seed of about 7. This would tie Self’s worst seed during his time at Kansas (last year) and is comparable though perhaps even more pessimistic than other preseason rankings (AP #19, KenPom #21, Torv #17, Lunardi 5 seed).

Player Projections

Darryn Peterson (Fr.): +6.45 Per100 on 80% mins, +3.61 PPGAB

Peterson finished as the #2 overall high school recruit, and is KU’s most-hyped recruit perhaps ever, but at least since Andrew Wiggins. He has gotten national attention before even playing a game at KU, being projected at the top of NBA mock drafts and has 10/1 odds to win Naismith Player of the Year. He doesn’t have any discernable weaknesses, and if he lives up to even half of the hype and accolades he’s received, will easily be KU’s best player this year.

His projections are slotted based on what top freshmen recruits have historically done at Kansas. His numbers are very close to Ben McLemore’s, Devon Dotson’s, and Andrew Wiggins’. There’s good reason to think he can surpass these names, but considering all scenarios we feel comfortable leaving them as is. But if Peterson can play like the number one overall pick season, he can help raise this team’s ceiling immensely. He’s going to have to if KU is going to be the type of team Self has typically produced.

Flory Bidunga (So.): +4.25 Per100 on 65% mins, +1.93 PPGAB

Flory was a surprise entry into the transfer portal this past spring, requiring Kansas to re-recruit him and confirm they are serious about him moving forward. He had an excellent stretch as a true frosh in a Kansas uniform but saw his playing time diminish after K.J. Adams returned from injury later in the season. Bidunga did not close the season well. His strengths are in his ability to dunk, block, rebound, jump, run, and move. He isn’t a polished low-post scorer, but his athletic upside only means he will continue to improve. He is KU’s only returning big man and second-most important player.

His projections are based upon a sensible increase in his play from last year, but honestly if he merely matches what he did over the first two-thirds of the 2025 campaign he will surpass these marks. Flory has the potential to be a valuable asset as a modern big man, running the floor, playing the pick-n-roll, and flushing dunks from lobs.

Melvin Council (Sr.): +3.40 Per100 on 80% mins, +1.90 PPGAB

Council is the first of our transfer seniors to get a mention. In looking at his contributions last season at St. Bonaventure, it’s clear he was their most important piece and a huge contributor and creator on offense and defense. Now we cannot say for sure how good his coverage defense is, nor can we say how well he will do playing up a level against Big 12-quality opponents, but his vocal leadership and proven toughness have already won many Kansas fans who follow off-season news.

Council’s projections expect him to be KU’s #2 offensive creator, complementing Peterson while also making winning plays through hustle stats (steals, rebounds, pressure defense, etc.). If he plays the game with the right type of energy, it will show up in the metrics.

Tre White (Sr.): +3.10 Per100 on 60% mins, +1.30 PPGAB

White may be the most proven player on the 2026 roster, having played at the power conference level with his time at Illinois. While his 3-point shooting marks haven’t been elite, his true shooting numbers last year were solid thanks to solid shooting inside the arc and at the line. He also rebounded well and took care of the ball. His limitations appear to be as a creator (low assist rate), so how well he shoots from the outside, finishes his scoring opportunities in the paint, and how frequently he gets to the line will determine how high of an offensive ceiling he will have.

Defense is a question mark just as with other newcomers. But his age and size suggest he will be at least average. His value projections are slightly lower than what his estimated value for 2025 was, so hopefully these marks indicate a floor-level to his play for 2026.

Jayden Dawson (Sr): -1.05 Per100 on 50% mins, -0.37 PPGAB

Dawson is easily the lowest projected player of the incoming three transfers who will end their college careers at Kansas as one-year seniors. He’s a decent shooter from deep (36% career 3-point shooter) but doesn’t stand out in other departments. He’s not someone who gets to the line a ton, not does he generate a lot of assists. He isn’t a great rebounder nor does he grab many steals for his position. He was a solid player at a lower level last season, but given the change in competition, will he make as many shots this year?

His value projections assume he can maintain at least some of his skill moving up a level, something that Zeke Mayo was able to do (but Nick Timberlake wasn’t).

Kohl Rosario (Fr): -4.70 Per100 on 40% mins, -1.32 PPGAB

A late reclassifier, Rosario has been mentioned as someone who has impressed the coaches during the offseason. He is an athletic wing with NBA potential size and skill that has him in some mock drafts for 2026. He is slotted as a #70 recruit (ESPN) but should he play like a top 30 or higher freshman, he has a huge chance to really boost his value metrics. Between he and Dawson, KU is hoping to find a fifth starter to provide above-bubble value.

Elmarko Jackson (RS So): -5.25 Per100 on 20% mins, -0.74 PPGAB

Elmarko is the second of three Kansas scholarship returnees, but his return is following a redshirt season due to injury. Jackson came in as a highly regarded McDonald’s All-American but struggled mightily as a frosh. He lost his starting job and only played important minutes due to KU’s thin roster in 2024. He had a bright moment helping get a defensive stop to seal the NCAA Tournament win against Samford, and he should be able to develop into a solid defender given his athletic ability and size. His projection is based upon a typical improvement from freshman to sophomore, but given how low his value as a freshman was, we are confident he can surpass this projection.

Jamari McDowell (RS So): -5.15 Per100 on 15% mins, -0.54 PPGAG

Jamari is in a similar situation to Elmarko. A redshirt 2025 season means he’s returning to the (game) court in the first time in over a year, so how much the season off helped him develop his ability is still part of the equation. We are bumping him up from his freshman value marks, while hopeful he can surpass these projections.

Nginyu Ngala (Sr): -6.04 Per100 on 15% mins, -0.63 PPGAB

Ngala comes in as a senior in eligibility, having played in Canada for collegiate hoops. He is also 26 years old, so we don’t see him being bullied or intimidated at this level. He is a small scoring guard, so we are curious to see how his game translates to Kansas. His projection was based upon him as the #101 recruit out of high school. This is probably too low, but we wanted to be cautious.

Bryce Tiller (Fr): -5.36 Per100 on 25% of mins, -0.94 PPGAB

We’ve now arrived to the other bigs not named Flory Bidunga. Tiller is the best-known of the three, having come in last winter to practice with the team while not burning eligibility. He has had time to develop, get accustomed to the school, and play against D-1 bigs in practice. His projection slots him as the #85 freshman, an estimate given he enrolled early and isn’t listed in RSCI or ESPN. We see him developing into a solid collegiate player, but how much of that happens as a freshman remains to be seen.

Samis Calderon (Fr): -5.64 Per100 on 20% of mins, -0.79 PPGAB

Calderon is Brazilian who came to Kansas by way of Overtime Elite from Atlanta. Good size/length and a very good athlete. What are his ball skills like? His defensive instinct? Ability to score in isolation? We just don’t know. His #91 ranking in ESPN slots him as a very replaceable talent his freshman season, but again it’s just as likely he outshines this rank than he plays below it.

Paul Mbiya (Fr): -6.41 Per100 on 20% mins, -0.90 PPGAB

Mbiya is the final big man listed, coming to Kansas by way of DR of Congo via France’s ASVEL. His numbers indicate he is a good rebounder, finishes inside at a high rate, but shoots free throws at about 50%. Very similar to Doke in that regard, something I’m sure will be brought up by commentators. One thing to note is that Doke was very raw as a freshman and not very valuable before his season-ending injury. Mbiya (20) is a bit older than the typical freshman. Of he, Calderon, and Tiller; KU needs one to comfortably surpass projections so that minutes are distributed toward the better value. Mbiya is slotted as #120 recruit.

Corbin Allen (Fr): -11.99 Per100 on 5% of mins, -0.42 PPGAB

Allen is a local product (Kansas City, MO) and not projected to play much. He is KU’s 13^th scholarship player and was slotted as #250 incoming recruit. His PPGAB marks are based upon him appearing in every game, whereas in reality players with limited minutes normally play in about half of the contests.

Walk-ons: N/A on 5% mins

Not going to go through the hassle of projecting walk-on numbers, but KU has three grand-fathered walk-on players this season: Wilder Evers, Will Thengvall, and Justin Cross. Sadly, this is going away as teams will soon be 15-player rosters with full scholarship/NIL payment potentials. It just doesn’t make sense to waste a spot on someone who is merely going to be a practice player. Many a fan favorite got the chance to wear the Jayhawk uniform due to being a walk-on, and some even developed into scholarship players (Christian Moody, Conner Teahan).

But with dark clouds and rain comes growth. One area for players who otherwise wouldn’t have been Jayhawks to still get that chance is thanks to the transfer portal. We’ve already seen a Zeke Mayo—Lawrence kid but not quite elite coming out of high school—get the chance to develop himself into a KU-level player by going to a smaller school and transferring in. So, there will still be that easy-to-root-for kid who eventually gets his chance. It will just be different from before.

Reversion Bump:

In order to get to the Team Estimate of +3.62, we bumped up the cumulative player estimates by 1.50 points. This was partly due to the fact that individual player projections are conservative, but mostly due to the fact that the minutes distribution will not be as spread out as it is. We currently show 12 players as playing 15% of minutes or more, unsure of who will beat out whom for playing time, but we are confident that there will be 8 or at most 9 guys who get rotation-level minutes. The guys who get rotation minutes will likely outperform expectations (and those that do not will most likely underperform). The end result will be a better overall output as minutes go to the better players.

Closing Thoughts:

Current projections are for KU to play 2 bigs 30% of the time. I believe the plan will be for Tre White to start as a stretch 4 (he’s a solid enough rebounder) and there is certainly the option for Rosario to play that role some as well along three guards and a big (mostly Flory). But there will also be times where playing two bigs makes sense, or at the very least Self will experiment doing so. KU’s guards aren’t super deep. After Peterson and Council, who else do you want out there playing serious minutes? Jackson, McDowell, Ngala, even Dawson aren’t likely going to be clearly superior vs. adding some rebounding/size by playing a bigger 4 man and sliding White/Rosario down to the 3. So, we will see what style of play KU goes with given its roster. Self clearly wanted to give himself options as playing either way is viable.

10/23 Update

With the first exhibition two days away, more information is available which would change some things about these projections. We are less concerned with the accuracy of the projections than we are about the objectivity of them. This is why we utilize recruiting rankings, past seasons’ stats, and very little else. Projections are slotted based on what players have objectively done or proven. This doesn’t mean they will meet them (see A.J. Storr or Elmarko Jackson), but it does provide a good level of expectation for the team coming in.

With all that said, the hype around Peterson means he will surpass his totals and be KU’s best freshman player in the Bill Self era (and likely ever, given that Wilt couldn’t suit up for the varsity team). There’s just too much going for him in terms of praise, preseason accolades (unanimous preseason first team Big XII selection), and market attention (+1000 Wooden Award odds, tied for second best odds nationwide).

Kohl Rosario has been announced as a starter for KU’s first exhibition game, and like Peterson, seems to only be receiving praise from his teammates, coaches, and the media. Freshmen are tough to project, because some just don’t quite make the adjustment to college hoops right away (Quentin Grimes). The big thing about Rosario and projections is that he was slotted to be a well-below KU-level player. He will certainly not be as bad as his initial projections showed, and his minutes played will also be higher than initially estimated.

Injury is another factor. Jayden Dawson didn’t play in the Late Night scrimmage because of injury and hasn’t impressed according to rumors. His projected value marks aren’t great, but there is still a good chance he doesn’t reach these marks. Others in the backcourt (Jackson, Ngala, McDowell) are likewise not mentioned much, though of these three it looks like Jackson is the guy Self is favoring.

Finally, the front court. Of the three non-Flory guys, Tiller’s name is the one that appears to be beating out the other two. Instead of Tiller getting 25% of the minutes and the other two 20% of the minutes, it might be something like 45%/10%/10%. Or maybe Tre White will play even more at the 4 and Kansas will prefer playing smaller more often than initially projected.

Ultimately, it looks like KU has five legitimate players (the five current starters) that will be as good or better than most starting fives they face. The bench will be the team’s weak spot, with the caveat that there are a number of guys with different skill sets that can emerge.