2025 Football Win Projections Using ESPN’s FPI

KU finished the 2025 season at 5-7 (3-6).

Here is how KU did against the spread, moneyline, and ESPN FPI predictions.

The table should be easy to understand. KU Impl % means what the betting odds are saying in terms of how likely it is KU wins. FPI is ESPN’s implied prediction in terms of a number from 0 to 1.

Using ESPN’s FPI data, KU was projected to win the following number of games by week. This shows the progression, detailing how KU’s season went.

Before Game 1	8.188 estimated wins
Before Game 2 (1-0)	8.289 estimated wins
Before Game 3 (2-0)	7.885 estimated wins
Before Game 4 (2-1)	7.268 estimated wins
Before Game 5 (3-1)	7.939 estimated wins
Before Game 6 (3-2)	6.924 estimated wins
Before Game 7 (4-2)	7.349 estimated wins
Before Game 8 (4-3)	6.790 estimated wins
Before Game 9 (4-4)	5.937 estimated wins
Before Game 10 (5-4)	5.906 estimated wins
Before Game 11 (5-5)	5.534 estimated wins
Before Game 12 (5-6)	5.171 estimated wins

The next table shows how likely it was that KU was going to a bowl game (technically 6+ wins) after x number of games.

Record	Chance of 6+ wins
3-1	97.0%
3-2	92.5%
4-2	96.0%
4-3	90.4%
4-4	67.5%
5-4	67.1%
5-5	47.6%
5-6	17.1%

There is no sugar-coating things, this was a disappointing season. After the team begun well in Week 0 against a solid Mountain West team in Fresno State, winning 31-7 and jumping in the computers, Kansas dropped close games against Missouri and Cincinnati to sit at 3-2 heading to UCF. Despite being down at the half, the Hawks rallied and had some great defensive stops in the fourth quarter to win 27-20 and go to 4-2. At this point, KU had a 96% chance of winning 6 or more games.

But from here, things got worse. An embarrassing loss to Tech followed by another embarrassing loss to K-State. After getting Oklahoma State at home and winning, at 5-4 KU could salvage the season by winning just 1 more. But it wouldn’t be easy. KU dropped a game in which it had a fourth quarter lead at Arizona, didn’t show up against Iowa State in Ames, and then blew another lead in its season finale against Utah. When all is said in done, KU won’t go bowling for the second straight year despite high expectations coming into the season.

The biggest blown chances were certainly the following three games:

• Cincinnati (34-37 final).
• Arizona (20-24 final).
• Utah (21-31 final).

Get any of these should-be wins, and the narrative is different. Now KU did win a close game against UCF in comeback fashion, so perhaps this mitigates things somewhat. But going 1-3 in these three games was a recipe for disaster.

An additional angle here is scheduling. With a 9-game conference schedule, choosing to play Missouri cost the team at a bowl bid. Had KU played a MAC or weaker C-USA team, KU likely would have won and got itself to 6 wins by going 3-0 in the non-con instead of 2-1. The same thing happened last year, when KU football decided to play against Illinois instead of scheduling an easier opponent. The difference between 6-6 and 5-7 is huge in college football, and once again KU will not be adding to its bowl history as it fails to qualify for one this season.