Future Major Projections for 2026

Major Projections for 2026:

Golfer	Proj Wins
Scottie Scheffler	0.52
Rory McIlroy	0.31
Jon Rahm	0.19
Xander Schauffele	0.16
Bryson DeChambeau	0.15
Collin Morikawa	0.14
Ludvig Aberg	0.13
Viktor Hovland	0.10
Brooks Koepka	0.09
Justin Thomas	0.09
Joaquin Niemann	0.09
Patrick Cantlay	0.08
Tommy Fleetwood	0.08
Jordan Spieth	0.08
Hideki Matsuyama	0.07
Cameron Smith	0.06
Tyrrell Hatton	0.06
Matt Fitzpatrick	0.05
Sungjae Im	0.05
Shane Lowry	0.05
Cameron Young	0.05
Tony Finau	0.04
Tom Kim	0.04
Sam Burns	0.04
Corey Conners	0.04
Min Woo Lee	0.04
Sepp Straka	0.03
Max Homa	0.03
Wyndham Clark	0.03
Russell Henley	0.03
Dustin Johnson	0.03
Robert MacIntyre	0.03
Will Zalatoris	0.03
Sahith Theegala	0.03
Akshay Bhatia	0.03
Si Woo Kim	0.03
Patrick Reed	0.03
Jason Day	0.03
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.02
Keegan Bradley	0.02
Daniel Berger	0.02
Harris English	0.02
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.02
Justin Rose	0.02
Adam Scott	0.02
Brian Harman	0.02
Denny McCarthy	0.02
Aaron Rai	0.02
Byeong Hun An	0.02
Rickie Fowler	0.01

Major Projections from 2026 – on:

Golfer	Proj Wins
Scottie Scheffler	5.83
Jon Rahm	1.84
Collin Morikawa	1.72
Ludvig Aberg	1.69
Rory McIlroy	1.51
Tom Kim	1.49
Xander Schauffele	1.41
Bryson DeChambeau	1.25
Viktor Hovland	1.17
Joaquin Niemann	1.07
Akshay Bhatia	0.85
Justin Thomas	0.80
Patrick Cantlay	0.62
Jordan Spieth	0.61
Sungjae Im	0.59
Cameron Young	0.55
Brooks Koepka	0.53
Cameron Smith	0.52
Hideki Matsuyama	0.51
Tommy Fleetwood	0.51
Matt Fitzpatrick	0.50
Min Woo Lee	0.48
Sam Burns	0.47
Nicolai Hojgaard	0.44
Tyrrell Hatton	0.38
Rasmus Hojgaard	0.36
Robert MacIntyre	0.35
Will Zalatoris	0.34
Sahith Theegala	0.32
Corey Conners	0.32
Sepp Straka	0.29
Wyndham Clark	0.28
Nick Dunlap	0.28
Si Woo Kim	0.26
Tom McKibbin	0.25
Tony Finau	0.24
Shane Lowry	0.23
Max Homa	0.20
Davis Thompson	0.18
Russell Henley	0.17
Aaron Rai	0.16
Aldrich Potgieter	0.14
Patrick Reed	0.14
David Puig	0.14
Daniel Berger	0.14
Maverick McNealy	0.13
Denny McCarthy	0.13
Jackson Koivun	0.13
Jason Day	0.12
Ben Griffin	0.12

Analysis

Scottie Scheffler clears both these lists, thanks to the fact he is entering into a golfer’s peak years (he is 29) and has produced consistently high major estimates in each of his past four seasons. In fact, his projection of 0.52 majors is actually less than either of his estimated totals in 2024 or 2025…if anything we are likely being too conservative for him in 2026.

Scheffler’s career projection is about 4 majors more than second-place Jon Rahm, again due to Scheffler’s age and consistency. There aren’t many comps for Scheffler’s potential career arc, especially when 1985 is our beginning point, but we should note that Tiger had quite a long and consistent run even into his 30’s. Despite a hiccup to his public persona and some injuries which lowered his perceived skill level in 2010 and 2011, Woods bounced back to have elite seasons in 2012 and 2013 (age 37 and 38 seasons) though he couldn’t close out major wins in either year. Thus it is very possible for Scottie, should he avoid off-course scandal and injury, to continue in more-or-less the same vein of play for roughly the next decade. We should also point out Phil Mickelson’s longevity as evidence that someone can continue putting up competitive seasons well into his 40’s and maybe even snag a major or two late in his career. Scheffler has a very realistic chance to get to 9 or even 10 majors in his career.

Tom Kim is another golfer worth talking about, mostly because he was someone we felt was over-projected in prior exercises. Kim’s 2025 season was worse than his 2023 or 2024 season, which at his young age looks like a set back and makes us wonder how good he will actually become. Kim is projected to win 1.49 majors over the course of his career, which does seem high but when compared to other golfers who were elite young is actually keeping with the mean.¹ We will discuss more about the methodology in the section below.

How long Rory can continue his consistency is another interesting question. Rory has been one of the most consistently good golfers in modern history. He has consistently been in contention in majors, even during his dry spell of 2015 – 2024, in a way that cannot be said of many others in his generation. Turning 37 next season, Rory has reached the age where golfers begin to decline. Some don’t start doing so until their late 30’s or even early 40’s, but it does happen at some point. Now that he has the career grand slam, will he be motivated to try and win more? 2025 was Rory’s highest estimated major season, and we project 2026 won’t be too far behind.

The bounce back possibilities are keeping guys like Brooks Koepka and Cam Smith afloat. As each has won a major and been top picks over majors in recent seasons, the model still sees these guys as having potential for solid seasons in the future. Brooks is turning 36 next year which will lead to a decline, but he still has 16 more major chances before his age-40 season. For Cam, his missed cuts in all four majors might lower the market’s perception of him for 2026. But April 2026 is still a long way away.

Methodology

The model used to project future majors incorporated the following data:

• Golfer’s historic market-derived estimated majors won in each past season
• Golfer’s year of birth (age)
• Field’s collective estimated majors by golfers’ ages since 1985
• Actual golfers’ ages for all majors won since 1946
• Field’s collective peak season by golfers’ ages since 1985
• Estimated major share to ranking table for an average season
• Actual career trends by age

The gist of the model is to use the market-derived estimated majors a player has over the course of the prior four seasons and then forecast what his market-derived estimated majors will be given his age and the typical “skill-curve” of a professional golfer. Golfers peak around ages 28-36, so golfers around 25 will generally see their predicted majors rise and plateau for their coming years while golfers around 35 will see their predicted majors decline as they age out of the typical prime seasons.

Following this, other adjustments are made. While younger golfers have the advantage of age, that is they have more years to rack up majors than older ones, we’ve found that there is less predictability for those who are younger. To account for this, a multiple is used which has the effect of boosting golfers age 28 and older while discounting those who are younger…particularly those younger than 26. We know that golfers peak around 31 on average, but for players who are elite early, there is a better chance they peak in their 20’s than 30’s (think Spieth). Golfers tend have periods of consistency from 28 to 36, barring injuries of course.

A preliminary projection is had, and we use this projection to compare how others golfers around that skill level and age have done throughout the rest of their careers, using logarithms. Three years of past data is used in order to get a better sampling of comparison golfers, and then an adjusted projection (normally lower than the preliminary projection) is arrived at. From here, these two projections are weighted together to form a final projection in terms of projected majors won for every future season a golfer has (until age 56).

Despite the name, the final projection isn’t truly final. Due to the fact each golfer is individually forecast, we need to ensure that collectively, the field of golfers have a forecast that arrives at a reasonable projection of total majors. For instance, if it turned out that we were projecting the field of golfers to have 5 major wins for 2026, this wouldn’t be accurate as there are only 4 majors that can be won in any given year. Using historic data, we find out that the number of estimated majors a field has for the following year is ~3.85. Which is to say that for all golfers who played in at least one major in 2025, we expect the market to estimate that they will win 3.85 of the 4 majors for 2026. So there is a little churn year-over-year, with there being 0.15 estimated majors for those in the majors in 2026 that didn’t play in 2025.²

As we progress into the future, we see the 2025 field’s number decrease. By 2035, we expect 1.69 majors to be won by those who played in at least one 2025 major. Using these estimated numbers of 2025 field majors won, we then devise multiples for each season…2026 is 3.85, 2027 is 3.69…and then use these multiples to adjust what our “final” player projections had.

The end result is a model which is hopefully the best projection as to how a golfer’s career will pan out…note that this is more of a projection of a golfer’s major championship estimates than his major championship wins. Now these two numbers should converge on the whole, but there are a lot of uncertainties per individual when it comes to winning major championships. Often luck plays a factor in determining if a golfer will win a major or not, and we don’t know who will clutch-up in the big events that are to be had.

Really what we are projecting is the market’s future sentiment of golfers, something that is not perfectly knowable. By 2035 it is a near certainty that there will be a top golfer who is not on our radar in 2025…we just don’t know who that is. We think Scheffler (age 39 season) will still be a formidable player given how good and consistent he is now. We think Tom Kim (age 33 season) has a chance to be good that year but we also note that there is more unpredictability with young players. Others will have almost completely aged out by then (Lowry, Henley) while others will likely be top-50 type players now in their 40’s (DeChambeau, Thomas, Hatton).

1. In other words, Kim could win 1 or 2 majors as his projection suggests or he could become an elite 3+ major winner or he could completely crash out and never vie for a major championship the rest of his career. All of these are possibilities. ↩︎
2. Since 2000 this has held true in reality, not just market-derived probabilities. J.J. Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open despite not being in any of the majors in 2024. Keegan Bradley won the 2011 PGA in his first ever major, the 2003 PGA Champion Shaun Micheel didn’t play a major in 2002, and finally 2003 British Open Champion Ben Curtis was playing in his first major. This makes 4 majors won in 26 seasons, which works out to a number close to 0.15. ↩︎