Beware the Slides of March

Kansas has finished its pre-NCAA’s schedule, and now sits at 22-10 overall following a 13-1 start to the season. The Jayhawks are on a slide, performing as a -3.05 per game team in March (4 games) and below bubble-level (-0.43) over their last 10 games, in which they have a 4-6 record. This series of poor play can be assigned solely to the offensive end, where KU is performing as a -5.19 per game team over the last 10 contests. The struggles to score have coincided with injuries to 2 key players, first Kevin McCullar (who has missed 5 1/2 games over this period) and lately to Hunter Dickinson, who was in street clothes for KU’s 20-point loss in the Big 12 Tournament. Relatedly, KU’s poor shooting has plagued the team over this stretch. In the last 10 games, KU is shooting 24.2% from 3-point range, despite being selective on its outside attempts. There’s no denying it. Kansas is slumping.

Compared to their seasons overall, there are a few players who have not performed well in recent weeks, contributing to this decline in team strength. Hunter Dickinson, who has been a +0.19 per game player in recent weeks, has a +3.90 per game season value. Johnny Furphy (-1.86 recent, -0.38 season) and Kevin McCullar (+0.63 recent, +4.01 season) are the other two who have seen a sharp decline in their games. McCullar has the excuse of being injured during this period; certainly not 100% in the games he’s been able to play.

Of the others, its not like they’ve picked up their play in the absence of Kevin and Hunter. Back-ups like Jamari McDowell, Parker Braun, Nicolas Timberlake, and certainly Elmarko Jackson have struggled all season (aside from 1-off games here-and-there). K.J. Adams, for his part, hasn’t seen a dip in his solid play in recent games (he’s been steady all season). Only Dajuan Harris has turned up his game in recent weeks (+3.05 recent, -0.20 season), but this has primarily been due to his play on the defensive end, something less noticeable and more variable. We shouldn’t overlook Juan’s good defense by any means, but his offense over the last 10 contests is only slightly above-bubble (+0.30 per game).

What is the solution to this dilemma? It’s tough to say. But one thing is that KU needs its full roster available. Even despite the relatively poor play of Kevin and Hunter recently, having them healthy enough to provide 32+ minutes is crucial for the team, as their “D” games are way better than whatever the back-ups normally provide. More minutes from Jackson, Timberlake, and McDowell do not make the team better. Role player, such as Dajuan Harris and Johnny Furphy, likewise add more value when surrounded by stars like McCullar and Dickinson. Harris needs skilled scorers to find in good spots in order to generate assist-value. Furphy needs space to make 3’s or cutting lanes, something both Kevin and Hunter can provide by their ability to draw extra defensive attention and double-teams.

There’s been much discussion about injuries and poor shooting, and note that both have been the source of KU’s woes and both are related. KU’s been worse from 3 in games without Kevin (21.3%) than in games with him (27.2%) over the last 10, not to mention how much better of a shooting team they were when Kevin was 100%. In all games McCullar has missed (6 total), KU is a -0.44 team (+5.68 with him). Further, when KU doesn’t have a 7’2 skilled post scorer they can feed as part of their half-court offense, this hurts their FG shooting from inside the arc as well. If KU gets its two best players healthy by the NCAA Tournament, this will give its role players a better chance of making shots.

In closing, KU’s best team consists of its “main four” (McCullar, Dickinson, Adams, Harris) alongside whoever is playing best of the others. It may not always look pretty, but this line-up is most effective this season. If Furphy is hitting shots, he’s a great asset to the other four. But others have provided a spark as well, and as long as their roles are limited, the damage they will do to the team is not likely to be insurmountable. Still, KU will need consistent positive-value performances from its main four to make a deep run in the Big Dance. Benching K.J. this season because of “spacing” is a very dumb idea, and is probably only broached by the types of people who never played organized basketball past the third grade.