The Final Push

The 2024 Kansas Jayhawks finished the regular season portion of the schedule at 22-9, with a 10-8 conference record. Both of these marks are disappointments for a team which came into the season as the #1 team in the AP poll. To add injury(ies) to insult, KU’s two-best players on the season (Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson) are questionable moving forward as the Jayhawks attempt to navigate the treacherous postseason waters.

Worst Case Scenario: No McCullar, No Dickinson

If KU were without the services of McCullar and Dickinson for the season, the team would have played below a bubble-team. Its other 7 rotation players average -2.13 points per 100 value. Even if you could manage the minutes to play the best players more (Adams, Harris) and the worst players less (Jackson, McDowell); the team would still struggle to be bubble-level with this 7-man squad. One glimmer of hope is that this collection of 7 players has performed better of late. In the last 10 games, these 7 players have been collectively a +2.46 per game team. While there’s no guarantee they can play this way without Hunter/Kevin (i.e. some of this value has been due to getting assists on baskets by these players), the team is actually more balanced now than it’s been anytime this season.

Possible Case: Getting 1 of them Back

Quite possibly, KU could get either Hunter or Kevin back but not the other. If Kevin’s out, this would look much like it has earlier in the season when he couldn’t go. Hunter would get a heavy diet of touches and look to score against or pass out of double teams. In the 5 games where KU played without Kevin, the Hawks averaged a +3.15 game score (+5.67 with him).

Getting Kevin back but not Hunter would be better than getting neither back, but there’s less info on how this would play out (the only time KU hasn’t had Hunter in is when he’s getting a breather, but that’s quite a big difference than not having him for a whole game or games). Kansas with Kevin but without Hunter would play smaller and likely attack defenses differently.

Best Case: Both Come Back

If both come back by the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, this KU team has a decent chance of making the second weekend. If KU can limit the minutes of Jackson, Braun, and McDowell to about 10-15 total per game, the other 185 will be filled by guys who are all better-than-bubble or trending near bubble-level. In conference play, Nick Timberlake is actually an above-bubble player (+0.02 per game). He defends adequately and has rebounded well for a wing-guard. His shooting has been a disappointment, but he limits his turnovers and doesn’t force a ton of bad shots. Johnny Furphy has dropped off in the last few games, but he is still near bubble-level for the season (-0.16 per game). Dajuan Harris has made the biggest climb in recent weeks, as he’s finally starting to defend at an all-conference level again. In total, his +1.42 per game value-score in conference play (+2.71 per game over last 10) puts him where he is adding value most nights. These three, alongside Adams/McCullar/Dickinson, make for a solid-enough team that can hang with any team on a neutral court. It may need a few breaks along the way, but this team would be worth paying attention to.

Assessing the Regular Season

KU was projected to be a +8.51 per game team, and it finished at +5.26 per game. This was a miss of 3.25 ppg, which is quite large in the grand scheme of things. At different points of the season the Jayhawks have had problems with guard-play, incoming players, depth, road games, injuries, and outside shooting. At the moment, all of these factors are contributing to what is looking like a disappointing season.

Big 12 Tournament

The Conference Tournament begins for Kansas on Wednesday, and the Jayhawks will likely face Cincinnati (could face West Virginia). As it’s looking more and more likely that both Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar will miss this week to recover for the NCAA Tournament, KU is down to 7 scholarship players (of whom only 1 has produced above-bubble value this season). We will deign this group the “Scrub Squad.”

Utilizing the value-scores produced by each player, but looking at this from a per game and per 100 possession basis (while estimating minutes played), and additionally looking at the value-scores both from a season-long perspective and a recent-game perspective; we predict the per game value of each player should be around this:

• Dajuan Harris +1.26
• Elmarko Jackson -2.83
• K.J. Adams +3.48
• Nicolas Timberlake -0.70
• Johnny Furphy -0.60
• Parker Braun -0.83
• Jamari McDowell -0.57

The TEAM score is -0.80. Given Cincinnati is playing a touch above bubble-level, but also that the game is in Kansas City, our objective prediction is that this is a 50/50 matchup. Cincy will be hungry to make a run if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament (it may need to win 3 or 4 games in the B12 Tourney). However, the Bearcats aren’t a great outside shooting team. KU has a chance to outscore them from the perimeter, something the Jayhawks haven’t done to an opponent since…the Kansas/Cincinnati game in January. If KU faces West Virginia, KU should be an 8-point favorite.