A Tale of Two Juans

Dajuan Harris’s last 15 games of 2023 vs. Dajuan Harris’s first 15 games of 2024:

Stat	2023 – Last 15 Gms	2024 – First 15 Gms
PPG	11.3	6.9
eFG%	62.8%	48.5%
TS%	61.5%	471.%
APG	5.8	7.1
A/TO	3.0	2.6
SPG	2.6	1.2
RPG	2.9	2.2
ORtg	109.6	102.4
Pts AB +/-	+48.39	-44.98
PPG +/-	+3.23	-3.00
Per 100 +/-	+5.14	-4.84

The numbers speak for themselves. Another notable thing is that KU’s average opponent had a KenPom rating of +17.10 over last 15 games in 2023 compared to +4.77 over KU’s first 15 games in 2024. Juan’s drop in production and efficiency has come against weaker foes.

The last three numbers are the value scores, first in total points against bubble, and then rated in per game and per 100 possession bases. These numbers account for opponent strength as well as deeper defensive metrics such as points allowed (Harris is allowing 12.4 points per game in 2024; it was 10.0 over the last 15 in 2023).

Aside from assists, Harris has gotten worse in every facet of the game. But even with assists, his increase in assists has come with a greater increase in turnovers, meaning his overall “ball-handling” value has worsened.

This and That

The following bits of info relate to the 2024 season through KU’s first 15 games.

• Johnny Furphy’s defense has been better than his offense. Per 100 possessions, Furphy is about -1.03 points to a bubble player on offense and 0.00 to a bubble player on defense. Furphy is shooting well, but he relies on assists to score and turns it over far more than he creates offense for others. Defensively, his coverage score is not terrible and he rebounds at an acceptable clip.
• Elmarko Jackson has posted 3 above-bubble offensive games, or 20% of the 15 he’s played so far in his KU career. And 2 of these came in KU’s first 2 games. What’s giving him any playing time at the moment is his defense. Jackson has produced 10 positive defensive outings this season (67% of games).
• K.J. Adams is KU’s best defender right now, posting a +2.23 average defensive game score. This is far better than his 2023 season, which was negative (-0.10). Adams’ improvement on defense is in large part due to him defending less in the post as an undersized 5-man, his role last season. Offensively, Adams has seen a slight decline from ’23 to ’24 (+0.60 to +0.44).
• Kevin McCullar’s value-score improvement from last season to this season, on a per game basis, is +3.98. This is better than Jalen Wilson’s improvement from ’22 to ’23 (+3.34), Ochai Agbaji’s improvement from ’21 to ’22 (+3.09), and Christian Braun’s improvement from ’21 to ’22 (+3.83). The largest season-to-season jump on record is Frank Mason’s ’16 to ’17 improvement (+4.52). Thomas Robinson from ’11 to ’12 was +3.67. Tyshawn Taylor from ’11 to ’12 was +3.65. Other large jumps in the past include Raef LaFrentz from ’95 to ’96 (+3.67), Keith Langford from ’02 to ’03 (+3.59), and Drew Gooden from ’01 to ’02 (+3.41). There have certainly been other great career developments of steadier growth, but in terms of having such a large leap in value production in consecutive years, what McCullar is doing this season is very special.
• Hunter Dickinson’s two worst value-score games (-10.40 vs. Marquette, -6.23 at UCF) have coincided with both of KU’s losses. Through 15 games, Hunter is currently KU’s second-most valuable player this season, but is neck-and-neck with Kevin for this distinction. If both can finish the season above +5.00 per game, they’d be the first duo since the Morris twins in 2011 to do this for a Kansas team.
• Jamari McDowell has not proven to be the answer to the team’s poor wing play. The freshman has produced the worst Per 100 value of any scholarship player, at -7.91. After some initial stingy defense, Jamari has gotten scored on quite frequently in limited minutes. At best, McDowell is only going to be a role player and defense-first guy this season.
• Parker Braun has been KU’s 5th-best player, and might warrant more court time. He is athletic and experienced. His value scores through 15 games have been 7 positive, 7 negative, and 1 right at 0. While he is at Kansas primarily to back up Hunter, there have been a few moments where Self has gone “small” and played Adams as the 5 when Hunter is sitting. But this leads to more minutes for guys (Jackson, Harris, Timberlake) that aren’t playing as well as Braun has, and haven’t shown enough offensive firepower to compensate the loss of not having a true center inside. Parker isn’t necessarily someone who will win you the game, but he is someone who can keep you in it until Dickinson can return.