Today KenPom released his preseason rankings for the 2023 basketball season. In it, KU is 8th in the country and 3rd in the conference. By his estimate, KU should go 20-9 in its scheduled games (it still has 2 games against unknown opponents in the Bahamas Tournament). The AP also released its top 25, having KU at 5.
Charting the Hawks will also attempt to evaluate KU’s true ranking by looking at this year’s roster, and then build up to a team prediction based on the sum of the parts.
Returning Players:
Dejuan Harris (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.28
Jalen Wilson (RS Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +2.79
Joseph Yesufu (Jr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35
K.J. Adams (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.28
Bobby Pettiford (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.59
Zach Clemence (So.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.47
Michael Jankovich (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.36
Kansas has 7 returnees, with Harris and Wilson also returning as starters. Of these, 6 are rotation (non-walk-on) players. The projections shown here expect about a 0.50 PPG increase per player compared to last season, with minutes-played estimates having a factor. Jalen Wilson is expected to be KU’s best player, and has the best potential of any Jayhawk to finish with All-American honors. Coach Self hit the nail on the head when he stated that for this team to reach its potential, it needs Jalen to play ta an All-American level. Normally a score of +4.50 or even +5.00 is All-American. Wilson has the best chance of any Jayhawk to get there, but history says we shouldn’t expect this. What Wilson has going for him is that he will get a lot more opportunities to score with no McCormack, Agbaji, or Martin to generate offense through. This could boost his value score above his projected number.
Incoming Transfers:
Kevin McCullar (Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.94
Cam Martin (Rs Sr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.31
McCullar’s projection is taken using box-score stats from his previous time at Texas Tech, with the caveat that his defensive plays weren’t charted. The tape would indicate he is a superb defender, with the ability to score at times. He won’t give up easy baskets, and should be an anchor on that end.
Incoming Freshmen:
Kyle Cuffe (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.35
Gradey Dick (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +1.57
M.J. Rice (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.69
Zuby Ejiofor (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.18
Ernest Udeh (Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: +0.12
Charlie McCarthy (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53
Dillon Wilhite (RS Fr.) 2023 PPGAB Projection: -0.53
With freshmen, the projections are tough. The only real framework is their rankings in the class as well as any hype around them. What we use is historic freshman value based upon incoming class rank. This isn’t a perfect way to do it of course, but higher-ranked players do tend to perform better. For Gradey Dick, his high incoming ranking has him projected to have player value somewhere between the freshman seasons of Kelly Oubre 2015 or Perry Ellis 2013. M.J. Rice is somewhere around Ochai Agbaji 2019. Udeh compares to Cole Aldrich 2008 or Markieff Morris 2009. Ejiofor would be closest to Carlton Bragg 2016. Again, these are broad estimates that are meant to incorporate the possibility of over or underachievement.
The TEAM ranking then attempts to take in these player numbers and combine them in a way which recognizes minute distribution. We know Wilson, Harris, and McCullar should get starters’ minutes. There is much to be determined for the 5-spot, as well as who among the other guards and wings can win minutes. The team has a lot of depth.
The number for the team that was calculated is +5.76. This would put KU at around a 4-seed should it win and lose the expected number of games a team of such strength might. While this may seem a bit bearish, remember that losing Agbaji, McCormack, and Martin to graduation was tough. And losing Braun to the draft was the biggest lost in terms of expectation; him not returning drops the 2023 team down a couple seed-lines.
Worst Case, Best Case, Medium Case
Within reason, the worst case scenario would be for Kansas to struggle due to lack of outside shooting and experience. Teams would force the Hawks to knock down shots; forcing guys like Wilson (26.3%), Harris (32.3%), Yesufu (26.2%), Clemence (27.3%), and McCullar (31.1%) to hit open 3’s (3-point percentage from 2022). Another struggle could be the abundance of depth without much differentiation. The 5-spot is still up for grabs, and the D-1 experience at this position is lacking to say the least. Either freshman big has the athleticism, but can either anchor inside in his first year? Clemence showed some talent last year, but played 10+ minutes in a game only twice the entire season. Cam Martin did get a year of practice to adjust to the speed and talent of this level, but how much of his D-2 success can lever up? It may be that K.J. Adams starts the season at the “5,” at least in the games before KU faces true low-post skill.
The point guard position is also another question. Dejuan Harris is loved by fans, but he hasn’t produced the numbers to match this affection. He will need to be a bigger scorer than he was last year. He scored at a rate below half of what the team did as a whole last year. His offensive value from scoring was -4.11 points below bubble per 100 possessions, easily the worst of the top 8 guys in the rotation. While we expect improvement, it would have to be monumental for Harris to become a top 2 or 3 scorer (as Bart Torvik projects). That kind of leap is rare. Moving on to Yesufu and Pettiford; neither were suitable backups last season. In fact, each was even worse than Harris on offense, along with being subpar defenders. Worst case scenario: KU gets a middling-seed (6 or worse) and gets bounced in the First Round.
Switching gears to a reasonable best-case scenario, Kansas finds a nice rotation of 8-9 guys which balance to fill each position nicely. Wilson has an all-American type year, and bolstered by strong defense, the Jayhawks go on to win 25 or so games and get a top-2 seed in the Tournament. From there, a Final Four run is possible, with a very low chance at cutting down the nets in April. Final Four is a good reasonable goal for the 2023 team.
The medium scenario places KU at about a 4-seed. They will compete with the top teams in the Big 12 and maybe even share the title. The freshmen show potential but also reminders of their age. Jalen has a good but not elite year, and has to carry the team for much of the way. The defense is solid but poor outside shooting occasionally plagues them. A second-weekend NCAA Tournament is within expectation, but after that they should be underdogs in the later rounds barring massive upsets.
Wrapping up Last Season
Finally, we look back at last season’s projections. For a TEAM score, we projected +9.50, which was basically matched at +9.46 following the Big 12 Tournament. Thanks to an outstanding 6-game run in the NCAA Tourney, KU finished at +10.21 to exceed expectations and win the National Championship.
But while the TEAM projection was quite accurate, how the team got there was not. Ochai Agbaji (+4.39) and Christian Braun (+3.91) exceeded their low pre-season estimates. Meanwhile, Remy Martin (+1.06) and David McCormack (+1.35) did not achieve what they had been expected to. Jalen Wilson (+2.31) was another bright spot, whereas Joseph Yesufu (-1.06) was very disappointing as an incoming transfer.
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