2022 Season Preview

Coach Bill Self did a lot in the offseason, adding four veteran transfers to a recruiting class of four 4-star recruits to a roster returning four starters. That’s a lot of fours.

The biggest loss from last season is Marcus Garrett. Playing out of position as the starting point guard, Garrett still managed to put up a decent offensive season. His greatest value was through his defense, topping all other seasons of KU players since 1997 including his now-second-place 2020 campaign. He will be missed.

Let’s first look at returning KU rotation players, using value data from prior seasons, and attempt to project PPG +/- value scores.

Ochai Agbaji (Sr.):

2019: Off -1.01 Def +1.57 Tot +0.56

2020: Off -1.14 Def +0.19 Tot -0.95

2021: Off +0.42 Def +0.88 Tot +1.30

Agbaji’s sophomore slump was all-but-forgotten when he got off to a hot start in the 2021 season. He did revert back down as the season went on, but he did finish as KU’s leading scorer and a key piece of a team that earned a 3-seed in March. He is an extremely good athlete and solid shooter who is now a senior. If he can improve on some weaknesses (ball handling, decision making) and put it all together this season, it could have tremendous benefit to both the team and his draft stock. Still, even a middle-of-the-road estimate puts him as a critical part of the 2022 team.
2022 Prediction: Off +0.65 Def +1.20 Tot +1.85

Christian Braun (Jr.):

2020: Off -0.33 Def +0.49 Tot +0.16

2021: Off -0.40 Def +0.48 Tot +0.08

Braun’s value scores were very similar from 2020 to 2021. The major difference was his playing time, he jumped from 45.8% of minutes played as a freshman to 77.7% as a sophomore. Braun will play significant minutes as a junior, and should improve on both sides of the ball. Playing with ball-handling-heavy guards should free him up to knock down jumpers and get set up on backdoors and transition opportunities. The bulk of his value above bubble-player will come from his defense and rebounding. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.05 Def +0.75 Tot +0.70

Dejuan Harris (RS So.):

2021: Off -1.09 Def -0.35 Tot -1.44

Harris struggled to produce points despite shooting efficiently and distributing the ball nicely. He wasn’t a threat to score, and his lack of size was exposed whenever he was tasked with guarding larger or more physical players. Still, with an offseason of adding strength, he has the skill to be a valuable player. The biggest question is how Self will structure his rotation. With two new transfer PGs coming in, Harris might not get too many minutes. But Self could decide to play small and go with four guards most of the time. Harris shouldn’t be asked to do more than he is capable of with the roster as deep as it is. He will certainly improve on his freshman value scores. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.75 Def -0.20 Tot -0.95

Mitch Lightfoot (RS Sr.):

2017: Off -0.46 Def -0.19 Tot -0.65

2018: Off -0.69 Def -0.59 Tot -1.29

2019: Off -0.61 Def -0.10 Tot -0.71

2021: Off -0.36 Def -0.48 Tot -0.84

Lightfoot took a step back in 2021 after redshirting. He has clearly reached his peak as a college basketball player. His sixth year in the program should only get him fill-in minutes with the depth of the roster, but his defense might still be needed at times based on matchup. Ideally, he should play around 10% of season minutes, which will keep his value score from getting too low on a per game basis. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.25 Tot -0.50

David McCormack (Sr.):

2019: Off +0.39 Def -0.68 Tot -0.29

2020: Off +1.15 Def -0.67 Tot +0.48

2021: Off +3.44 Def -0.56 Tot +2.88

McCormack’s offense is highly underrated. He is a good scorer who gets his hands on a number of offensive rebounds, and at 80% is a solid free throw shooter. With Remy Martin and Yesufu getting him looks, he should easily score as well as he did during last season’s Big 12 play. On the other side of the ball, his defense will still be a weakness. His uncomfortably low defensive score in 2021 was partially due to how his season ended with very poor showings in the NCAA Tournament. He should improve on that side of the ball, but he won’t turn into Sasha Kaun. 2022 Prediction: Off +3.20 Def -0.10 Tot +3.10

Jalen Wilson (RS So.):

2020: Off -0.64 Def +0.20 Tot -0.44

2021: Off +0.95 Def -0.31 Tot +0.64

Jalen Wilson was KU’s biggest positive surprise for the 2020 season. He started in all but a few games, and was a serious scorer particularly early on. He can drive, pull-up, or hit the deep shot. He also rebounded well on both ends. On the other end, his on-ball defense was not very good. He struggles to find someone to guard…traditional bigs can take him into the post and quicker guards can easily beat him on the drive. 2022 Prediction: Off +1.15 Def -0.10 Tot +1.05

We have the most data on these six players, so their estimates should be more accurate than other players. These six form a solid core that could get KU into the tournament easily enough. It is the next set, the transfers, that can get this team from a middling seed and into the upper echelon of the sport and a deep tournament run.

Jalen Coleman-Lands (RS Sr):

2021: Off +0.60 Def -1.25 Tot -0.75

Jalen Coleman-Lands began his college career in the same season that Perry Ellis graduated (he was in the same recruiting class as Ben Simmons). After two years at Illinois, a transfer year, a medical redshirt year, a season at DePaul, then a season at Iowa St., he is taking advantage of the new transfer rules to finish his career as a Jayhawk.

As a shooter, he’s a career 39%/37%/81% marksman (FG%, 3pt%, FT%). He should excel playing on a spaced-out floor with other shooters and ball-handlers. He did average 14.3 ppg on a dreadful Iowa St. team last season, but his career assist-per-game mark is only at 1.1. He doesn’t create a lot of offense on his own and relies on spacing/ball-movement.

Defensively he is a question mark. He played on poor defensive team last season, so how much will playing with better athletes help him on that end this season? Isaiah Moss is a comparison here, but Moss was a very good on-ball defender playing for KU. But if Lands’ defense is more like that of Lagerald Vick, he won’t add much value to the roster. The prediction below believes he can step up his game well enough to be a value-neutral player, given his solid shooting and veteran presence. Any defensive competency he shows on the wing will be an added bonus to the team. 2022 Prediction: Off +0.50 Def -0.50 Tot +0.00

Cam Martin (Sr.)

The Missouri Southern (D-2) transfer can fill it up, as he averaged 25.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg with excellent shooting percentage numbers (44% from 3). But scoring against Division 1 athletes will be tougher, as will be playing solid enough defense to earn floor time. But he will get his chances during the season, and should be playing with good enough facilitators which allow him to score. 2022 Prediction: Off +0.45 Def -0.15 Tot +0.30

Remy Martin (Sr.)

2021: Off +3.52 Def +0.17 Tot +3.69

2-0 against Kansas during his career as an Arizona St. Sun Devil, Martin brings ball-handling, passing, shooting, and scoring to the PG position. He should start and has a great chance to be KU’s leading scorer and best player. Over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 19.1 ppg and 3.9 apg playing for a mediocre team. Surrounded with scorers like Wilson and McCormack and shooters like Agbaji and Braun, he might not score as much as he had to at ASU but he should up his assists and increase his efficiency. Defensively, he is quick and gets a fair share of steals. He has the physical tools to be a good defender on the perimeter against fellow guards. He is smaller, so any switches would give him trouble inside. Should he stay healthy, he could add his name to the list of excellent KU point guards that have come through in recent seasons. 2022 Prediction: Off +3.00 Def +0.50 Tot +3.50

Joseph Yesufu (Jr.)

2021: Off +0.91 Def +0.10 Tot +1.01

Yesufu blew-up for Drake at the end of last season, working his way not only into the starting rotation but also as the guy for the Bulldogs. He averaged 23.2 ppg in his last 9 games on 47% shooting from 3. But for most of the season, and for his freshman season the year prior, he was a reserve-guard for a mid-major program. Can he continue to play at his highest level? How does he defend? These are tough questions to answer and to predict. Still, due to his age (junior) and his scoring ability, he will find time on the court. 2022 Prediction: Off +1.25 Def -0.15 Tot +1.10

These four guys didn’t transfer to sit; they came to help KU achieve its program goals. Remy Martin will almost certainly start, while Yesufu and even Coleman-Lands have a decent chance of starting. These four will need to perform to their capacity in order to push KU to the heights of a 1 or 2 seed. The next set of players, all true freshmen, have an exciting mix of potential and raw talent. We don’t know exactly what KU is getting with these guys, but each has the opportunity to be solid multi-year guys for the program. Any value added by any of these players will add a bonus element to an already-stacked roster. Due to the team’s depth, there is a good chance at least one of these guys redshirts. The early money is on Kyle Cuffe to sit. We’ll assume this is the case for now, and leave his prediction score off.

KJ Adams (Fr.)

The freshman 4-star is ranked lower in the Top 100 (#71 composite) but is still a serious prospect. At 6’6 with quickness, he could find high-leverage minutes as a stretch four when KU is wanting to play aggressive on defense. His role should be playing high-energy, getting rebounds, loose balls, pressing his man on defense, etc. His estimate assumes he plays in some games early, but ultimately gets only a few minutes in some Big 12 games as the season wears on. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.40 Tot -0.65

Zach Clemence (Fr.)

The freshman 4-star is ranked somewhere in the middle part of the Top 100 (#39 composite), a spot which usually assumes some development is still to come. As an upper classman, Clemence should be a key piece. But let’s not expect much from him as a freshman. Since 2016, the average score for a freshman rotation player is +0.04. He is far closer to the lower-end (Harris, Thompson) of that spectrum than the upper end (Jackson, Dotson) which is why his score is negative. If he were to contribute, it’d be to his shooting, ball skills, and size as a solid and versatile 4-man. He should get a trial run in the games before Christmas, but expect his minutes to be shrunk by conference play. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.20 Def -0.35 Tot -0.55

Bobby Pettiford (Fr.)

The freshman 4-star combo guard is ranked lower than the other KU frosh recruits (#88 composite), but early reports have been positive. He is playing behind three ball-handling guards (Martin, Yesufu, Harris) and three good-shooting wings (Agbaji, Braun, Coleman-Lands), so there aren’t many minutes left unless he overperforms his ranking. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.35 Tot -0.60

The last group of players would be walk-ons. KU has four walk-ons this season, but only two will be given any detail. Dillon Wilhite and Charlie McCarthy are potential redshirts.

Chris Teahan (Sr.):

2018: Off -0.10 Def -0.10 Tot -0.20

2019: Off -0.17 Def -0.00 Tot -0.17

2020: Off -0.17 Def -0.90 Tot -1.07

2021: Off +0.39 Def +0.40 Tot +0.79

Walk-ons’ value scores shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as their limited playing time and quality of opponent during mop-up time can skew their numbers dramatically. Still, Teahan showed strong shooting and rebounding ability to generate a strong, positive, value-score in 2021. With KU’s 2022 depth being what it is I doubt he gets serious minutes in the upcoming season. But he might actually be better than his brother, who did play serious minutes for the 2012 national runners-up. 2022 Prediction: Off +0.00 Def -0.20 Tot -0.20

Michael Jankovich (Jr.):

2020: Off +0.05 Def -0.91 Tot -0.86

2021: Off -0.79 Def -1.09 Tot -1.88

Jankovich was injured most of last season and only played in one game (the USC game). Like Teahan, he is a seriously good shooter who can make shots coming in cold. 2022 Prediction: Off -0.25 Def -0.50 Tot -0.75

2022 KU Jayhawks basketball team predictions

As a team, predicting playing patterns that Self tends to favor (8-9 player rotation by conference play), the math works out to a +9.50 Team Score this season. This would put the overall performance about on par with the 2012 team, and around average for a Bill Self Kansas team. However, this year’s roster will get it done primarily through offense (+8.93), while its defense struggles (+0.58) to attain what past KU teams have. Translating these numbers to efficiency ratings, the estimate is that KU should be ranked about 2^nd on offense and 40^th on defense this season in all of D-1.

There are three big questions heading into the season.

1…Can Self get this team to defend?

It’s surprising to see a projected defensive score so low. As a comparison, in the Bill Self era the worst defensive team (2018) is still better than the projection of the 2022 team. The 2018 team was still able to make the Final Four, but did so due to great offense. But why is the 2022 team’s projected defense so bad?

The PPG +/- system relies on the assumption that the team is as good as its parts. Or another way to put it, the skill level of the team (reflected in points against opponent weighted by strength) is attributed to each player so that the sum of all player scores just equals the team score. A team with good defenders will have a higher (better) defensive score than a team with poor defenders.

Last season’s defense wasn’t great, but the largest reason it was competent at all was the play of Marcus Garrett. Losing him on the perimeter means teams should have an easier time running their offense this season. Can KU pick up the pieces and defend scorers? Can Agbaji become the team’s best on-ball defender? Can Braun step up his defense? What will the incoming guards/wings do on this end?

One dark horse on this end is the depth that KU can throw out there. Would Self be open to pressing more given how much athleticism is on the roster? Upping the tempo might be in the team’s best interest. It would also be a lot of fun. Perhaps the best defense KU can put out there is to counterintuitively increase scoring. But on a per possession basis, running might make its defense more efficient if it wears its opponents down.

2…What will the rotation look like?

KU has 18 players on the 2022 roster, with 14 of those players being on scholarship. Redshirting at least one player seems likely. Let’s assume the freshmen won’t provide much value. That still leaves 10 non-freshmen, all of whom used to playing rotation-minutes, having to work together.

KU’s depth is particularly strong at the guard/wing position. Remy Martin, Joseph Yesufu, Jalen Coleman Lands, Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun were all starters last year for whatever team they were on. Dejuan Harris was a 6^th man averaging 29 minutes per game during the final four games of KU’s season. Six guys for three spots makes it crowded.

Looking at the forward position, you have two serious returning starters in David McCormack and Jalen Wilson. Mitch Lightfoot’s minutes can likely be cut back, but Cam Martin will likely play when D-Mac is on the bench. KU could go small, and move Braun/Agbaji into the 4-man role when Wilson is sitting. This would open up a fourth spot to rotate the 6 guards/wings.

Of course, the freshman will still get a look. Clemence and Adams each bring a unique skill set that isn’t realized by a veteran player. Either would be a natural four in the current era of college basketball. It will be interesting to see Self mix and match rotations during the easy part of the November/December schedule. If the freshmen can defend, this would be a good way to get on the floor given how offensively-capable the team already is.

3…How explosive can the offense be?

This is the big unknown, because on paper this team will have the best offense in the Self era. McCormack, Wilson, Remy Martin, Yesufu, Coleman-Lands, and Cam Martin are scorers. If they are to produce the value they are capable of, it will have to be due to offense. Are there too many spoons in the pot? Note that this leaves of Agbaji, KU’s leading scorer from last season!

But this may be yet another argument for pushing the pace. The team has guard depth and quickness that can be utilized in transition. Upping the tempo allows more guys to get more shots and more offensive flow. Guys like Remy Martin can improve their efficiency by facilitating more than they’ve been able to in years past. Neither Agbaji nor Braun should need to force shots this season, and can focus on playing excellent defense and finishing plays when they get open opportunities. They team has complementary parts if they play together and stay within their roles.

Best Case/Worst Case/Middle Case

The realistic best-case scenario for the 2022 Kansas Jayhawks is to cut down the nets in April. They have depth, skill, experience, variety, and good coaching. Team’s will struggle to slow down an offense that can beat you from all five spots. Who can you pressure? Who can you leave to double-team? KU should have an answer to any challenge a defense might throw at them.

In this scenario, the defense doesn’t become all-time but gels together and wins possessions by playing solidly and limiting second-chance opportunities. In order to make up for losing Marcus Garrett, you’ll need Agbaji and Braun to continue to improve. McCormack and Wilson will need to perform better. The newcomers will need to show they can play defense at a program like Kansas. If everyone steps up his game just marginally, the cumulative effect can be a defense that is not a glaring weakness but in fact complements the outstanding offense.

On the flip side, the realistic worst-case scenario would be a middling regular season, capped by a higher single-digit seed and first round exit. Barring NCAA penalties or multiple critical injuries, this scenario would play out because the team had trouble making all the new pieces fit together. Poor decision making, too much isolation play, and lazy defense combined would hurt the team’s performance. Even with the team’s depth, a single injury to either McCormack or Remy would change the complexion of the team significantly. While not likely, the team could revert into what it was for much of last season, except without Marcus Garrett.

The realistic middle-case scenario is a 26 to 29-win pre-NCAA tournament season, Big 12 title, and on the line between a 1 or 2 seed and over/under 3.0 tournament wins. An Elite 8 run would be neither disappointing nor above-expectation, but rather a push when it came to season expectations. Like any team in any year, a Final Four should still be seen as a good season even if the team wasn’t able to close out the deal and win two more in April. The team should put up some points this year, which will be fun.