- 2021 Marcus Garrett now has a better defensive score (+3.65) than last season (+3.61). His offense is down, however, so he is below last year’s total Adj PPG +/- score (+3.74 vs. +4.38). In 26 games of play, he has produced positive value in 21 of those games, or 81% of games played. In 58% of scenarios, he is predicted to be KU’s most valuable player by the Adj PPG +/- metric.
- Christian Braun has produced positive value in 13 of his 27 games, but has a positive Adj PPG +/- because his good games produce more value than his bad games lose. His last eight games have produced all his positive value for the season as he was -0.30 through 19 games. He has shown slight value improvement on both sides of the ball this season in more minutes of play. Right now the only sub-category he grades out negatively is in offensive production…in other words he needs to score more.
- Ochai Agbaji has seen his play dip of late, but following a solid performance against UTEP he is comfortably going to clear +1.0 on the season (98% of the time in simulations). He provides the majority his total value on the defensive side of the ball…if not for Garrett’s elite defense more people would be talking about Agbaji’s very good defensive effort on the year. Def Prod tracks coverage, or how well a defender disallows his man from generating points. Agbaji covers his man in the same ball-park as Garrett, with Braun being a distant third. No one else on the team is close to providing substantial coverage value after these three.
- Jalen Wilson has seen his score dip to the lowest among the starting five at +0.73. Once a consistent producer who was good on offense but bad on defense, Wilson has been much more inconsistent of late…delivering great games at West Virginia and Iowa State but also dreadful games against Texas Tech and UTEP. Even with his superb rebounding numbers, Wilson’s defense is the second-worst of all rotation players due to his coverage being the worst on the team.
- David McCormack has become the team’s go-to player. He scores 0.58 points per minute, a rate higher than 37% of anyone else on the team while also being the most-efficient offensive player among rotation players. For most of the season he could only provide negative defensive-value, but that changed recently and he is +0.24 on that end. For a post player, he is quite active in forcing turnovers and getting steals. His biggest weakness is his on-ball defense, as his coverage (Def Prod) score shows.
- Bryce Thompson has continued to get minutes following his return from injury. He has played better in the 7 games since return (-0.64 Adj PPG +/-) when compared to how he began the season, but is still struggling to produce value anywhere. He is very inefficient on offense without much to show for it.
- Tyon Grant-Foster has not played in four games, and hasn’t played double-figures in a game since the Tennessee game. Like Thompson he was offensively inefficient, but unlike Thompson he provided defensive and rebounding value. Why he doesn’t get minutes as the stretch-four when Jalen Wilson (or even David McCormack) is out is confounding. Grant-Foster averages almost an identical rate of rebounds per minute as Jalen Wilson does, and covers his man similarly to Christian Braun. With his PT so low, it is tough to say if his value would increase or decrease with more minutes. But he has shown he can bring intangibles (height, athleticism, length) that translate to value in non-scoring areas.
- Tristan Enaruna has also had his playing time diminish. The last time he played at least 10 minutes in a game was the home Oklahoma State contest, eight games ago. He has only provided positive value in 29% of the games he has played. Like TGF he provides some intangibles as a tall wing, but he is below-replacement across the board. His value is only slightly above his value last season (-1.14).
- Mitch Lightfoot has not provided the offensive value a fifth-year senior should. He still makes plays on defense, drawing fouls and grabbing the occasional rebound, but he gets scored on far more than he himself scores. At -0.80, he is very close to his Adj PPG +/- of -0.71 in 2019. At this point it is clear his role is as a back-up, to provide minutes and fouls for when McCormack needs a rest.
- Dejuan Harris’ score of -1.81 is surprising considering all the good things the eye-test says he does. On a per possession basis, he is the team leader in steals and above-average at forcing non-steal turnovers. He has the team’s best assist/turnover ratio, and doesn’t force bad shots up. As can be seen, his gives up most of his value on Off Prod. He only averages 1.9 ppg, despite getting 14.4 mpg (7th most on the team). He also gives up more scoring than the other guards. Still, this is certainly one player who should not be judged solely on his Adj PPG +/-. The team’s +/- is slightly better with him on the court than with him off, and depending on matchups and game situation he can be a spark or catalyst by moving the ball and disrupting the opponent’s offense. If he can get more rebounds and find a way to score more, expect him to develop into a fine player.
- Gethro Muscadin has logged 30 minutes this season, much of it against weaker competition, yet only scored 2 points. Given the lack of depth in the post, the simple fact is he wasn’t ready to compete at a high-major level this season. He is a good rebounder, however, and actually not a bad defender given his experience-level. If he does develop into a rotation player at some point, it will likely be because of value on the defensive end.
- Latrell Jossell is injured I believe, so his season is is likely complete. Jossell only played in 24 minutes over 9 games, But scored 11 points and genuinely showed some ball-skill. His size will always be a question.
- Chris Teahan has been tremendous in 16 minutes this season, so much so that one wonders if he could provide some spot minutes as a back-up guard in the rotation. Still, he is likely to finish with the best season for a walk-on in recent history as he is currently at +0.91.
Charting the Hawks 