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Here is the money quote from Self:
“Marcus is one of the most-underrated players in the country. Nobody looks at him and gives him near the credit that he should get defensively because he guards everybody’s man. And his man never gets double-figures. Never. Never. And that’s a knock on wood, but never. He guards the other team’s best player,” Self said. “There’s a lot of switching that goes on, which obviously magnifies sometimes the guy he’s guarding scoring points. A lot of time he’s not on him [when he scores]. But [he’s] a ball-handler, stabilizer, and I don’t want to say he’s playing out of position, but he’s doing something that — if he had somebody back there to help him a little more … — I think he’d be more effective.”
There’s a lot here, but the quote and Scott Chasen article led to further Marcus Garrett discussion on Phog.net and elsewhere. Everyone has an opinion on Garrett, including obviously Coach Self, but how he thinks about Garrett’s value is what is most interesting as it mirrors how Charting the Hawks goes about things.
I disagree with some of Self’s specific conclusions but he is generally correct about Garrett’s game. For one, it’s tough to call Garrett underrated when he won national defensive player of the year last season. He has gotten deserved accolades. Two, Garrett has given up some double-figure games to his opponent. This shouldn’t cause us to doubt his defensive prowess, however. Even great offensive players have down games, so too do great defensive players.
Defensive value does get overlooked at times. People don’t think enough about this fact, defense accounts for exactly half the game. Half the time your team is on offense, half the time your team is on defense. Games are won in a variety of ways…good defense, good offense, or a combination of good-enough offense with good-enough defense.
Let’s get to the meat of the quote, and that is the value produced by Garrett.
Garrett’s Scoring Defense
We can take a look at how many points Garrett’s man is scoring. This can be a tough stat to keep, but it is one kept diligently by the proprietor of this website and serves as the basis of the following analysis. With switches, ball screens, help side rotation, etc. some possessions can be difficult to gauge as to which defender was responsible for giving up the points. But a majority of possessions are fairly easy to gauge, and the ones that aren’t should eventually balance out. These numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re accurate for what we’re trying to do.
For the season, Charing The Hawks has Garrett’s man scoring these point totals in each game:
7,6,4,3,10,3,2,10,7,9,DNP,12,13,8,11,8,17,2,8,13,6,5,8,0.
These games are from earliest to most recent, Gonzaga to Texas Tech (2).
By my count, Garrett’s man has scored in double-figures in 7 games. Now perhaps the KU staff has a defensive scoring system and interprets defensive possessions differently, which led to Self’s statement. While I do believe KU keeps defensive stats they don’t publish, I don’t think it is as precise or rigorous as the possession-based system done here. Instead, it is more likely that Self is using hyperbole when he makes claims about Garrett’s man scoring in double-figures; hyperbole is something he is prone to use.
Looking deeper, Tennessee was Garrett’s worst output, giving up 17 (this was the only time he was the team’s worst defender). He gave up 13 to Oklahoma State twice. He gave up 12 and 11 to Oklahoma. And he gave up 10 to Texas Tech in Lubbock and 10 to North Dakota St.
These are all explained by simple factors…Tennessee shot absurdly well, Garrett was covering high-usage Cade Cunningham for much of the two OSU games, he was covering Harmon and Reeves for much of the Oklahoma games, he gave up two late deep 3’s against Texas Tech, and had a down game against North Dakota St. like many of his other teammates.
On the flip side there are some insane defensive games in the list. He effectively pitched a shut-out against Texas Tech last Saturday…whoever he switched onto never scored (or produced a score) so McCuller got his 12 against other defenders, McClung got his 11 against others, etc. Or take the Gonzaga game, where the Jayhawks gave up 102 points yet only 7 came from Garrett’s man. Making this more remarkable is that 2 of Garrett’s points allowed were early in the game when he turned it over against a press and gave up a layup. In total, he only gave up 5 points in the half-court against a Gonzaga team that hung 102 total, and did so playing 37 minutes. Suggs, Kispert, and Timme were getting their buckets on Wilson, Agbaji, Thompson, and McCormack…not Garrett.
Some of the other games he defended well are less unexpected but still quite solid…2 points allowed in 20 minutes against Omaha, 3 points allowed in 22 minutes against Washburn, 2 points against Kansas State in 23 minutes…but he also gave up 3 against Creighton, 4 against Kentucky, and 5 against Iowa State.
Defensive points allowed can be fickle. Sometimes you play very good defense but the opponent makes a difficult shot or two. Luck evens out over a season. Garrett has given up 172 points in 23 games, or 7.5 points per game. This is very good considering how many minutes he plays. We can also look at this per possession. Garrett has allowed 0.134 pts per possession, best on the team and third-best in any season since 2007 for players playing at least 30% of possible minutes. His 2020 season is second on this list.
Other Defensive Factors
Garrett also makes defensive plays to win the ball back for his team. He rebounds, gets steals, and generates turnovers great for a guard. These possession winners also account for a player’s overall defensive value. So let’s compare him to other guards throughout the years.
If we look at the players who get the most rebounds/steals/forced TO’s, it doesn’t take long to realize that post-men do best. They grab the most rebounds (and do better than you might think in steals/forced TO’s), so all the top names in this category are big guys. And the first wing players we get to are Josh Jackson (2017) and Kelly Oubre, bigger wings who weren’t primary ball-handlers.
Looking at ball-handling guards, only Mario Chalmers compares to Garrett when it comes to winning defensive possessions. Garrett, at 0.127 steals/rebounds/forced TO’s per possession, is slightly behind Chalmers’ 2008 of 0.130. Chalmers was great at getting steals, whereas Garrett gets more rebounds. But those two names separate themselves at the top the list when it comes to point and shooting guards.
Offensive Output
Garrett is the team’s primary point guard on offense. He handles the ball the most, inbounds it underneath (a staple of PG’s in Self’s offense), and tends to be the one breaking his man down in late-clock situations. He has produced 273.3 points (points are split because assists get incorporated) for an average of 11.9 ppg. Remember earlier, he allowed 7.5 ppg. Taking 11.9 – 7.5, and Garrett is 4.4 points better than his opponent per game purely from a points-produced perspective. His misses and turnovers will hurt this number, while his rebounds, steals and forced turnovers will improve this number.
Back to his total offensive output seen in isolation. Even playing out of position, Garrett’s offense is +0.32 points per game better than a “bubble” player. KU has come to expect more offense out of its point guard position…its prior five seasons starting PG’s were: Dotson, Dotson, Graham, Mason, and Mason. But going back to 2015 and prior, the PG position had some down years. 2014 saw Tharpe start with freshman Mason and Frankamp providing backup. 2013 was an injured Elijah Johnson doing most of the PG duty. Tyshawn Taylor in 2012 was great but in 2011 had his struggles. Russell Robinson in 2007 and 2008 was the team’s weakest starter. Aaron Miles as an underclassman struggled as well.
The fact is, Garrett’s offense, just his offense, as the lead PG is still 14th best over the past 20 years. KU has had worse “true” point guard than Garrett. Clearly Garrett isn’t a great offensive weapon. But he isn’t the worse either as he is able to get to the rim, makes his FT’s, and contributes nice passes to better scorers often enough.
Consistency
Garrett’s consistency has been great this season. Beginning in the Baylor game, he has had eleven consecutive positive games. (A positive game means he produced more value than he allowed). For the season he has had 19 positive games and 4 negative games. Another way to interpret this is to say he has helped his team’s chances of winning in 19 games, while hurting his team’s chance of winning in only 4 games. This is a level of consistency only common among the very best players, such as Frank Mason in 2017 or Devon Dotson in 2020.
Final Numbers
Putting this all together, currently Marcus Garrett is a schedule-adjusted +3.81 points per game better than a “bubble” or replacement-level player. His season would be the 4th best starting PG over the past 20 years, which is (slightly) higher than Sherron Collins’ highest seasons. Even if Garrett’s numbers decline slightly, he will be no worse than 7th or 8th out of 20. Not bad for someone playing out of position. His defense is elite, and even though his offense is limited he is the biggest reason this team has the 12th best adjusted defense (and conference’s second-best defense) and 23rd best overall team according to KenPom.
Charting the Hawks 