The final 2021 stats have been published. Below is a brief look at the value provided by this season’s roster. Note that the assessments are in relation to a KU-level talent for how they performed this season. It is not a prediction on what they will be later in their careers.
STARTERS
Marcus Garrett led the team with a +4.45 score. He provided the most-valuable defensive season on record (20 seasons) with a +4.03 Def PPG +/- score. The scores confirm what the eye-test tells us, Garrett’s defense was outstanding. Additionally, Garrett provided +0.42 value on offense. Not great, but above replacement-level. Since 2012, Garrett was KU’s fourth-best starting point guard, and not too far below Devonte’ Graham’s 2018 season.
KU has been spoiled with outstanding PG’s in recent years. Don’t blame Garrett for having to play out of position in 2021, blame those around him for not elevating their games. Assessment: KU-level star (A+).
Christian Braun finished barely in the green, with a +0.08 score. He had some excellent games but was an inconsistent shooter. He also had trouble generating his own offense, so he was the least productive starter on offense. His defense was not bad, but not great either. He is a good rebounder for a guard, and an okay on-ball defender. Looking at his total value, he likely doesn’t start most seasons at KU. But he was still the team’s fifth-best player, and will be a vital piece moving forward should he improve like most KU players do who return for a third season. Assessment: KU-level reserve (C).
Ochai Agbaji was the team’s leading scorer at 14.1 ppg, and finished with a +1.30 score. His offensive efficiency declined throughout the season, and he didn’t grab many rebounds or steals on defense either. Still, he did a good job of outscoring his man, and he graded out as the team’s second-best defender. I don’t see him being anywhere near an NBA-level talent yet. His junior season was a clear jump over his underclass years, but he still has room to grow as a player. Assessment: KU-level starter most years (B-).
Jalen Wilson finished with a score of +0.64, with his value coming on the offensive side of the ball. At times he was a very good scorer, and his rebounding skill made KU less of a “small ball” team than was predicted. His defense was poor, particularly when he was in a mismatch against a quicker player. If he can improve his shooting and on-ball defense, he can be a very good college player. Assessment: KU-level reserve (C+).
David McCormack had a dominant offensive portion of the schedule, which elevated him to a +2.87 score. He graded out as a better offensive weapon than Doke last season due to his production, free throw shooting, and ability to take care of the ball while playing against a tougher schedule. He was a versatile scorer. McCormack’s defense, while better than his underclass years, was nevertheless quite poor. He struggled against versatile players whether underneath or (especially) on the perimeter. Assessment: KU-level starter (A-).
ROTATION BENCH PLAYERS
Bryce Thompson finished his freshman season at -1.32. This is actually far more respectable than how he played at the beginning of the season. Thompson’s offense was the worst on the team, and he never outscored the 12 points he put up against Gonzaga in the first game of the season. His defense was slightly positive, and he showed flashes of the talent that brought him to Kansas. I don’t doubt he can improve. Assessment: Not KU-level (D-).
Tyon Grant-Foster was the only rotation bench guy to have a positive score, at +0.23. He was not an efficient offensive player, which hurt his minutes. But he defended, rebounded, and made the occasional athletic play when he was in the game. He should have been given more minutes given what he did do. His lack of minutes will end up hurting his grade, as we don’t know if he would have been able to maintain his value playing more minutes. Assessment: KU-level reserve (C-).
Tristan Enaruna did perform slightly better than last season, but across the board he was negative on all categories. His total score was -0.78. He did some things well, but he was a bit soft on both ends of the court. Assessment: Not KU-level (D).
Mitch Lightfoot did not put up a score as high as he should have, given his status as a 5th year senior. He finished at -0.84. His minutes were mostly due to KU not having a viable back-up at the 5, unlike in years past. His inability to develop offensively is surprising, given how athletic he is and how competent his shot looks. Assessment: Not KU-level (D).
Dejuan Harris made many nice plays last season, but also wasn’t much of an offensive factor. This is why his score was so low at -1.44. Harris has a nice game; he takes care of the ball, sees the floor well, can make an open shot. He needs to improve his scoring and on-ball defense. Assessment: Not KU-level (D-).
DEEP BENCH PLAYERS
Gethro Muscadin didn’t see the court much, and when he did he showed how his size could be of value but not much of his skill. His score was -0.49 while only playing 2.7% of possible minutes. With him transferring out, there’s not much else to say. Assessment: Not KU-level (N/A).
Latrell Jossell also didn’t play much, but his quickness and ball-skill weren’t bad. He is undersized, so might have trouble defending should he get more minutes. His score of -0.19 included some deep jump-shots, showing range. Assessment: Undetermined (N/A).
Chris Teahan was money, and had a score of +0.79 thanks to multiple made shots and decent defense. He could have played 5-10 minutes against most opponents and been fine. Assessment: KU-level walk-on (N/A).
Michael Jankovich was injured for most of the season and played in one game (USC), finishing with a score of -1.87. Assessment: KU-level walk-on (N/A).
To reiterate, the assessments and grades relate to the 2021 season only, and are not a reflection of the player’s potential or a prediction of the player’s value moving forward. Before next season, a prediction of the 2022 season will be published, using players’ historic numbers and historic trends of player improvement over the years.
Having said that, let’s take a look at how close this season’s forecasted Value scores (Adj PPG +/-) were to the actual results. Note that the forecasted numbers weren’t published before now, so you’ll just have to trust these predictions were made before the season:
The sum of the five starters exceeded their collective forecast by around 3 ppg. Looking back, it is easy to see I should have flipped Braun and Agbaji. In 2020, however, Braun was nearly a full point better than Agbaji, who had a poor season as a sophomore. Agbaji’s sophomore to junior jump was impressive even if we want more out of Och. Wilson was a nice surprise, and McCormack elevated his offensive production as the team’s main interior scorer. KU’s five starters weren’t the problem.
The bench was a major disappointment. Thompson’s forecast was ridiculously off in a bad way, but it was a prediction made after believing much of the hype around him. To a similar extent, this happened on Tyon Grant-Foster. Lightfoot not improving from 2019 was discouraging, and the rest of the bench was tough to predict. Part of Harris’ low score was him getting more minutes than expected. Either way, not a single bench player was able to consistently produce at a level that should warrant considerable time on the floor in a Kansas uniform.
Looking at the team score, the team underperformed what I thought it was capable of. However, the initial form of this team included Silvio De Sousa. De Sousa was a good interior defender in 2020, so his place on the roster would have helped the team immensely on that end. As much as I’d like to predict the 2022 team right now, we’ll let the roster finalize and make forecasts in the fall. There are many moving pieces at the current stage.
Charting the Hawks 